Attack On Europe: Documenting Russian Equipment Losses During The 2022 Russian Invasion Of Ukraine (2 year anniversary)

Day 1,252 of the Muscovian invasion. 1,070 [average is 841/day], i.e. more than 44 Russians and Norks/h. Vehicles and fuel tanks more than 45% and artillery more than 40% above average. Motorcycles are not counted yet.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 21, 2025

Russian officials’ public statements continue to demonstrate that Russia maintains wider territorial goals in Ukraine beyond the four oblasts that Russia has illegally declared as annexed. Russian State Duma Defense Committee Chairperson Andrei Kartapolov told Kremlin newswire TASS on May 31 that Ukraine risks losing Zaporizhzhia, Dnipro, Sumy, Kharkiv, Odesa, and Mykolaiv cities if Ukraine refuses a peace settlement and claimed that every day that Ukraine delays a diplomatic solution to the war worsens the conditions for Ukraine.[1] Russia may illegally declare Dnipropetrovsk, Sumy, Kharkiv, Odesa, and Mykolaiv oblasts annexed, especially should Russian forces launch offensive operations to seize these regional centers. Russia notably did not — and still does not — occupy Zaporizhzhia City when the Kremlin annexed Zaporizhia Oblast in September 2022. Kartapolov’s statement indicates that Russia maintains territorial ambitions beyond Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson oblasts — in line with Russian officials’ calls for Russia to seize Sumy City, claims that Kharkiv and Odesa cities are “Russian” cities, and increasing rhetoric about Russia's alleged historical ties to “Novorossiya” (which Russian officials have defined as all of eastern and southern Ukraine).[2] Kartopolov’s statement also indicates that the Kremlin continues to assess that Russian forces will be able to fight a protracted war against Ukraine to achieve these territorial goals and is not interested in good-faith negotiations to achieve a diplomatic settlement to the war. ISW continues to assess that Russian President Vladimir Putin holds a theory of victory that assumes that the Russian military will be able to continue gradual, creeping advances in Ukraine indefinitely.[3]

The Kremlin is continuing efforts to prepare Russian society and the Russian defense industry base (DIB) for a protracted war with Ukraine and potential future war with NATO. Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree on May 30 allowing the Russian government to revoke the rights of shareholders of defense industrial enterprises in the event that the enterprise fails to fulfill state defense orders during martial law.[4] The decree enables the Russian Ministry of Industry and Trade to appoint a management company to act as the sole executive body of the enterprise in order to fulfill contractual obligations to the Russian government. The decree applies to civilian aviation and shipbuilding companies, military development and production companies, and government subcontractors. Putin is likely setting legal conditions to allow the Russian government to commandeer elements of Russia's economy and DIB should the Kremlin introduce full martial law in order to transition the country to a full wartime footing. ISW continues to assess that the Kremlin is preparing Russian society and economy for a protracted war in Ukraine, indicating that Russia is not interested in engaging in good faith negotiations to reach a diplomatic settlement to its war in Ukraine.[5]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-31-2025 (Reuters) - Iran carried out secret nuclear activities with material not declared to the U.N. nuclear watchdog at three locations that have long been under investigation, the watchdog said in a wide-ranging, confidential report to member states seen by Reuters.
The findings in the “comprehensive” International Atomic Energy Agency report requested by the agency's 35-nation Board of Governors in November pave the way for a push by the United States, Britain, France and Germany for the board to declare Iran in violation of its non-proliferation obligations.

Using the IAEA report's findings, the four Western powers plan to submit a draft resolution for the board to adopt at its next meeting the week of June 9, diplomats say. It would be the first time in almost 20 years Iran has formally been found in non-compliance.

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/iaea-report-says-iran-had-secret-activities-with-undeclared-nuclear-material-2025-05-31/

Attack On Europe: Documenting Russian Equipment Losses During The 2022 Russian Invasion Of Ukraine (2 year anniversary)
05/31/2025 12:05:51 PM PDT Hidden Bear: The GRU hackers of Russia's most notorious kill squad

Russian GRU Unit 29155 is best known for its long list of murder and sabotage ops, which include the Salisbury poisonings in England, arms depot explosions in Czechia, and an attempted coup d’etat in Montenegro. But its activities in cyberspace remained in the shadows — until now. After reviewing a trove of hidden data, The Insider can report that the Kremlin's most notorious black ops squad also fielded a team of hackers — one that attempted to destabilize Ukraine in the months before Russia's full-scale invasion.
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The Fifth Service of Russia's domestic security agency, or FSB, is widely understood to have been the main Russian intelligence organ tasked with destabilizing Ukraine in advance of the February 2022 invasion. And indeed, on December 1, 2021, and January 25, 2022, there were reports that coup attempts — likely backed by Moscow — were in the works. Now, new evidence shows that GRU Unit 29155 was involved in similar efforts, pioneering tactics in Ukraine it is now employing on a much broader scale in its escalating “shadow war” against the West.
In August 2021, five months before Russia's full-scale invasion, Unit 29155’s hackers attempted to exacerbate a rift between Ukraine's nationalist groups and the Zelensky administration. Soldiers from many of Kyiv’s most effective units, which had been fighting off Russian forces in the Donbas since 2014, were less than enthusiastic about their president. In 2019, a visit by Zelensky to the front lines resulted in an on-camera argument between the head of state and members of the Azov Battalion. In 2021, Zelensky was still politically vulnerable to protest and pressure from nationalist elements in Ukraine, including those opposed to his campaign pledge to end the war in the east by making concessions to the Kremlin.
Adhering to the familiar formula of false-flag operations, Stigal recruited dozens of low-level assets to impersonate members of the Azov Battalion – one of Ukraine's best paramilitary outfits, but also a group that had faced scrutiny in the West over the right-wing tendencies of some of its members. He went further and engaged with at least two top commanders in Azov, impersonating a leader of the Chechen dissident Ichkeria organization, which is opposed to Chechnya's warlord-president Ramzan Kadyrov, and offering them an alliance against Zelensky. Duped by Stigal, at least one of the Azov commanders accepted the offer of help.
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The hackers searched for vulnerabilities in government agencies and critical infrastructure sites in Uzbekistan, Georgia, Czechia, Slovakia, Estonia, Poland, Moldova, and Armenia, the Aegaeon logs show. Of the hundred or so known targets of Unit 29155, a third were in Czechia, where operatives from the same GRU unit blew up two Ministry of Defense-owned ammunition warehouses in Moravia in 2014. The majority of requests from the servers are from 2021 and 2022, after which the hacking either significantly decreased or Unit 29155 simply discarded the Aegaeon server in favor of others.
Among the phones that the hackers checked for call records and metadata were not only the objects of their professional interest, but those of acquaintances and relatives. One target was Zhana Barskaya, the mistress of Unit 29155 commander Andrey Averyanov. Judging by the phone numbers they were interested in, it is clear that the hackers were also avid readers of this publication.
When The Insider published a story in January of this year about Unit 29155 suborning Afghan couriers to pay Taliban militants to attack U.S. and coalition forces in Afghanistan, the hackers scanned the number of Ivan Senin, one of the directors of the bounty program, within 24 hours of the article's release.
https://theins.press/en/inv/281731 Ukraine attacks elite Russian unit base nearly 7,000km away in Vladivostok, source claims
Ukraine's military intelligence agency (HUR) was behind explosions near Desantnaya Bay in Russia's Vladivostok on May 30, which reportedly damaged military personnel and equipment, a source in HUR told the Kyiv Independent.
If confirmed, the Vladivostok operation would be Ukraine's furthest incursion into Russian territory - approximately 6,800 kilometres from the Ukrainian border. According to the source, two blasts occurred early in the morning at a site where Russia's 47th Separate Air Assault Battalion of the 155th Separate Guards Marine Brigade was stationed. The 155th Marine Brigade has been actively involved in the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, including battles in Mariupol and Vuhledar in Donetsk Oblast, as well as operations in Russia's Kursk Oblast.
Local media reported two loud bangs, followed by temporary road closures and emergency vehicles seen in the area, but did not mention anything about a military base.
Russia's Anti-Terrorist Commission of Primorsky Krai attributed the explosions to the ignition of propane-butane cylinders inside a vehicle. No official casualties have been reported.
One of the explosions allegedly happened near a checkpoint, while the other hit the location of personnel and the unit's command. “Manpower, military equipment, and special equipment were hit,” the source claimed. The Kyiv Independent could not verify these claims. Desantnaya Bay is located in Vladivostok in Russia's Far East, which lies some 185 kilometres (114 miles) from the Russian-North Korean border.
https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-behind-explosions-in-vladivostok-causing-damage-to-russian-military-source-claims/

Iranian Ambassador to Russia Kazem Jalali discussed media cooperation with Russian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Maria Zakharova in Moscow on July 30, likely to discuss efforts to counter Western reporting about Iran and Russia.[43]

Iranian media reported that Jalali and Zakharova discussed “strategies to combat fake news.” Jalali reportedly condemned Axios for spreading “lies” about Russo-Iranian relations, possibly referring to a July 12 report that Russian President Vladimir Putin had encouraged Iranian officials to accept the US demand for zero uranium enrichment.[44] Russia serves as a model for Iran in the cognitive warfare space.[45] Moscow's engagement with Iran is consistent with Russia's engagement with other allied states, such as the People's Republic of China (PRC), to coordinate messaging on key issues, particularly Russia's war in Ukraine.[46] Jalali and Zakharova’s meeting takes place as Iranian leaders are taking steps to further crack down on the Iranian information space. The Iranian Parliament recently introduced a bill that would penalize social media users who spread “fake news,” for example.[47]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-july-30-2025

“AvtoVAZ will reduce employee salaries by at least 20%”

An indicator of slowing/reversing of wage inflation.

Manufacturing jobs are going to China.

Yes, not only in Russia, in Iran and Africa as well...

BREAKING: Ukraine’s parliament passes bill restoring independence of anti-graft bodies

Kyiv Independent July 31):

“The Ukrainian parliament approved a bill restoring the independence of two principal anti-corruption bodies in a closely-watched vote on July 31.

In the first livestreamed vote since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion, 331 lawmakers approved the bill in two back-to-back readings. The legislation was promptly signed by Speaker Ruslan Stefanchuk, but still requires a presidential signature before entering into force.

The bill aims to reverse legislation passed last week that effectively destroyed the independence of the National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU) and the Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor (SAPO), two agencies founded as part of the post-EuroMaidan anti-graft reforms.”

“Trump implied direct consequences for India’s support of Russia and purchase of Russian oil via an additional tariff on top of the 25% tariff set to begin in August.”

25% tariffs on the roughly $50 billion in annual Indian exports to the USA, would be about a $12 Billion expense for somebody to eat (most imports from India can be substituted from their Asian competitors with lower tariff rates, so Indian producers would likely have to discount a lot of the tariff cost, or lose the business).

India saves about $25 Billion per year on the oil discounts that it gets from Russia, so it would likely require something like 100% tariffs to offset enough business to make it a net negative for India.

The costs and benefits would not be evenly shared within India. Oil refiners might be able to pass on the higher crude costs, but big oil users (like Petrochemical industries) would be big bill payers if they substitute discounted Russian oil for full price alternatives, but big Indian exporters to the USA (like jewelry and gem makers) would be big bill payers of higher tariffs.

China exports about ten times as much stuff to the USA, than does India, and actually gets less of a benefit from Russian oil price discounts, because a lot of their volume is priced on previous long term contracts, from before sanctions. So China is much more sensitive to tariff raises, and less sensitive (economically) to substituting Russian oil.

(Russian) “Construction of hardened aircraft shelters”

Let’s make a big push to blow up as many Russian Aircraft as possible ahead of time, and while it is still a free fire zone.

The less they have at the cessastion (pause) of hostilities, the better for the Free World.

“BREAKING: Ukraine’s parliament passes bill restoring independence of anti-graft bodies”

Update: President Zelensky has signed it into law.

Kyiv very much the focus of last night's fascist Russian Blitz on Ukraine. Yellow tracks - Shahed attack drones, red - cruise missiles.

https://bsky.app/profile/euanmacdonald.bsky.social/post/3lvaalzoahc22

If you follow the tracks back to the starting point, you get an approximate position for Ukrainian counterattacks. It can be assumed that they have very good positions that are not visible in this map image.

Similar to this
A Ukrainian reconnaissance drone Leleka-100 adjusts a GBU-62 JDAM-ER airstrike on the positions of Russian UAV operators.

https://x.com/LloydUkrYT/status/1950623039550333046

🇺🇸🛢️ Representatives of the American oil and gas industry have begun warning the White House that “normalizing relations” with Russia contradicts Trump's energy and economic agenda, which is focused on shipping more fossil fuels abroad, — Politico

They warn that Moscow will almost certainly expect Washington to lift sanctions on its energy sector, which would allow cheap Russian LNG to undercut the price of American LNG.

https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3lvb2impopc2v

Lifting the sanctions on ruzzian oil & gas will certainly be a concern to American oil & gas industry.

I wonder how President will solve this dilemma.

Also, it is not just LNG...ruzzian pipeline oil & natural gas will be hugely cheaper.

Veronika was blown out of the 9th floor of a residential building during the Russian strike.

Veronika believes she fell out together with her bed, which may have cushioned the fall, leaving her with only a broken leg. She still doesn’t know whether her parents are ok.

https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1950896748991250831
1 min video

Lifting the sanctions on ruzzian oil & gas will certainly be a concern to American oil & gas industry.

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Putin is not going to suddenly “find peace” - instead, he’s going to ignore 47, and 47 will respond accordingly. We hope.

Putin will have to be removed internally, and though difficult I think it is likely.

The war is coming home to avg Russians more and more, but perhaps more importantly to the oligarchs.

Aeroflot shut down, much of Russia blacked out to cell service and internet.

Drones and missiles hitting Russia daily.

High inflation, high interest rates, lord help him if there is a potato water shortage due to potato shortage😎

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 31, 2025

Russia has launched a simultaneous kinetic and cognitive response to US President Donald Trump's efforts to end Russia's war in Ukraine. Russia has used strikes largely affecting civilian areas in Kyiv City as well as threats and other rhetorical efforts to signal to Trump that Russia will continue rejecting Trump's demand that the Kremlin meaningfully engage in negotiations to end the war in Ukraine. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces launched eight Iskander-K cruise missiles from Kursk City and 309 Shahed-type and decoy drones from Bryansk City; Millerovo, Rostov Oblast; Shatalovo, Smolensk Oblast; and Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Krasnodar Krai on the night of July 30 to 31.[10] This strike package is significantly larger than the average Russian strike prior to May 2025. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces mainly targeted Kyiv City and that Ukrainian forces downed three Iskander-K cruise missiles and 288 drones. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that five cruise missiles and 21 drones struck 12 locations and that missile and drone debris struck 19 locations, primarily in Kyiv City. Ukrainian officials reported that the Russian strike killed at least 11 people, injured at least 135 people in Kyiv City alone, and extensively damaged residential and civilian infrastructure in Kyiv City and Dnipropetrovsk, Poltava, Sumy, Kharkiv, and Mykolaiv oblasts.[11] Russia's ever-growing nightly strikes against Ukraine have been and remain a clear Russian rejection of Trump's calls for peace in Ukraine.

The Kremlin's nuclear threats and rhetorical efforts to delay peace negotiations are part of a broader cognitive campaign to undermine US-led efforts to end Russia's war in Ukraine. Russian Security Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev responded to a statement by US President Donald Trump on both his English- and Russian-language Telegram accounts on July 31 and threatened that Russia is “doing everything right” and will continue along its own path, presumably referring to the war in Ukraine and Russia's general anti-Western posturing.[12] Medvedev also alluded to Russia's automatic or semi-automatic nuclear weapons control system, referred to as the “Dead Hand” or the “Perimeter,” in response to Trump. The Kremlin regularly uses Medvedev to inject inflammatory rhetoric, often including nuclear blackmail, into the information space to spread fear among Western decision-makers and discourage future military aid to Ukraine.[13] Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Vershinin claimed that Russia is ready to continue negotiations with Ukraine but that discussions about a high-level Russo-Ukrainian meeting are “premature,” in order to downplay the Trump administration's efforts to secure negotiations.[14] Kremlin newswire RIA Novosti published op-eds on July 30 entitled “There is no other option: no one should remain alive in Ukraine,” and “Noted: Ukraine will end very soon,” further showcasing the Kremlin's long-standing commitment to conquering all of Ukraine and increasingly aggressive rhetorical line in response to President Trump's efforts to compel Russia to engage constructively in the peace process.[15] ISW continues to assess that Russia remains fully committed to conquering Ukraine and protracting the negotiation process to buy time for further battlefield gains and extract concessions from Ukraine and the West.[16]

The People's Republic of China (PRC) is a decisive enabler of devastating long-range Russian strikes against the Ukrainian rear. A Russian milblogger claimed on July 30 that Russian forces launched up to 200 Geran-2 drones (the Russian iteration of the Iranian Shahed-136 drone) and Garpiya-A1 kamikaze drones (reportedly another Shahed drone variant that Russia produces with primarily PRC-produced components) in the strike against Kyiv City.[17] Reuters recently reported that PRC companies deliberately falsely label drone engines shipped to Russia for use in Garpiya drones as “industrial refrigeration units” to hide their actual military purpose, and Russia also uses PRC components in other Shahed-type drones, including a decoy and reconnaissance variant.[18] ISW has observed reports indicating that Russian defense manufacturer Izhevsk Electromechanical Plant Kupol increased its annual production of Garpiya-A1 drones from 2,000 to over 6,000, largely due to a steady supply of PRC-made L550E engines.[19] The PRC is an indispensable supplier for the broader Russian drone industry, as ISW has routinely assessed.[20] Russia will continue relying heavily on the PRC to support the expansion of its long-range strike capabilities and may incorporate more Garpiya drones in strike packages in the coming weeks and months as Russia seeks to conduct regular strikes consisting of up to 2,000 drones, likely by November 2025.[21]

European and US sanctions appear to be degrading Russian revenues from third-country importers of Russian oil. Bloomberg reported on July 28 that Indian oil refineries are diversifying crude oil imports and increasingly buying from Azerbaijan, Nigeria, and the United Arab Emirates after Europe intensified sanctions on Russian oil exports.[22] Bloomberg reported on July 29 that the Russian-backed Nayara Energy oil refinery in west India is struggling to receive crude imports and export processed fuels due to European sanctions.[23] Bloomberg reported that the Russian state oil company Rosneft owns 49.13 percent of Nayara Energy and that the oil refinery funds Russia's war in Ukraine. Bloomberg reported that the refinery is currently operating at 70 to 80 percent of its capacity of 400,000 barrels per day. The European Union's July 2025 18th sanctions package specifically targeted the Nayara Energy oil refinery and other facets of Russia's oil revenue.[24] ISW previously assessed that the European sanctions package would likely degrade Russian oil revenues beyond what the Kremlin previously expected, posing a potential risk to the Russian federal budget and earmarked defense spending.[25] US sanctions that target countries that purchase Russian oil will further hinder Russia's ability to fund its war in Ukraine.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-31-2025

Day 1,253 of the Muscovian invasion. 940 [average is 841/day], i.e. more than 39 Russians and Norks/h. Vehicles and fuel tanks more than 55% and artillery more than 30% above average. Motorcycles are not counted yet

🍈

Putin will have to be removed internally

First come sanctions then comes a CIA-inspired effort for regime change. The plan is straight from the Neocon foreign policy handbook. Beginning with Cuba in the early 1960s, Americans have never seen this insanity work.

U.S. regimes change efforts since 1960, spanning coups, invasions, and covert operations. More ideological Cold Wat tactics, with a goals like countering communism, and in this case Christianity in Russia

Notable Regime Change Operations:

Cuba, 1961, Bay of Pigs Invasion: Failed CIA-backed attempt to overthrow Fidel Castro
Chile, 1973, Supported coup against Salvador Allende; installed Pinochet
Iran, 1953 to present, CIA-backed coup of Mossadegh; later tensions led to 1979 revolution
Vietnam, 1960s–1975, U.S. military intervention to prevent communist takeover; ended in withdrawal
Nicaragua, 1980s, Funded Contra rebels against Sandinista government
Panama, 1989, U.S. invasion to oust Manuel Noriega
Iraq, 2003, Full-scale invasion to remove Saddam Hussein; led to prolonged instability
Libya, 2011, NATO-backed intervention helped topple Gaddafi; civil war followed
Afghanistan, 2001, Overthrew Taliban after 9/11; long-term occupation ensued

🧠 Methods Used - Covert CIA operations: Bribery, propaganda, and paramilitary support - Military invasions: Panama, Iraq, Afghanistan - Election interference: Italy (1948), Japan (1950s–60s), Russia (1996) - Economic pressure & sanctions: Often used to destabilize governments

Verkhovna Rada Passes Draft Law No. 13533. We Urge the President to Sign It Without Delay

July 31, 2025. Today, the Verkhovna Rada voted in favor of Draft Law No. 13533, submitted by the President, which restores the independence of Ukraine’s anti-corruption infrastructure, primarily the NABU and the SAPO. The law addresses most of the risks that emerged following the adoption of Law No. 4555-IX, which had opened the door to political interference in investigations.

331 Members of Parliament voted in favor.

The newly adopted Draft Law No. 13533:
1. Restores NABU’s exclusive jurisdiction - Other law enforcement agencies may investigate NABU cases only under exceptional martial law circumstances and solely by decision of the SAPO Head or the Prosecutor General.

2. Limits the powers of the Prosecutor General’s Office - The Prosecutor General will no longer be able to interfere in NABU investigations or demand case files. NABU detectives will be accountable only to SAPO prosecutors.

3. Ensures SAPO’s autonomy - The Head of SAPO will independently lead the prosecution office, without interference from the Prosecutor General or their deputies.

4. Reinstates SAPO’s procedural powers - Restores the SAPO Head’s authority to approve investigation extensions, issue notices of suspicion to top officials, and conduct urgent searches in exceptional cases.

5. Abolishes the “single window” for case closure - The Prosecutor General will no longer have the sole authority to close high-profile cases without SAPO’s involvement.

We call on the President to sign this law as soon as possible to fully restore the independence of Ukraine’s anti-corruption system ...

https://ti-ukraine.org/en/news/verkhovna-rada-passes-draft-law-no-13533-we-urge-the-president-to-sign-it-without-delay/