J.P. Morgan Analyst Predicts Timing of When Biden Will Drop Out, How He Will Be Replaced

It's because Cembalest's third predicted "surprise" is that Joe Biden will pull out of the election between Super Tuesday and November, for health reasons.

pic.twitter.com/QvUyY1ZJBI— Dr. Nickarama (@nickaramaOG) January 7, 2024

Super Tuesday is the day that you have a lot of the states holding primaries and caucuses. This year, that's March 5.

Cembalest says that after Biden steps down due to health, the Democratic National Committee will name a replacement to whom to pass the torch.

Biden has a low approval rating for a President with ~10% job creation since his inauguration, although that figure is the by-product of his inauguration coinciding with the rollout of COVID vaccines and a reopening US economy.

If you look at the chart above you can see how low Biden is, the lowest approval of anyone occupying the office at this point since inauguration, 1051 days. Cembalest notes the "job creation" number, but that it really isn't attributable to Biden because it's the people returning to work with the reopening of the economy after COVID. So people know that it isn't due to anything Biden has done. Meanwhile, they know that the things he has done have hurt the economy, like spending leading to more inflation. That's why he gets such low marks for the economy because people don't think he knows what the heck he is doing and because Bidenflation has been crushing them. They know how much more they've had to pay out of their pockets under Biden as opposed to under Trump.

There are reasons to think that's not out in left field, particularly as the reality of how bad Joe's condition has become more and more apparent over the last couple of months.

People are already nervous as Biden continues to wallow in the approval-level basement. We've seen folks like David Axelrod and James Carville say maybe he should get out for the good of the party. I wrote earlier about how Barack Obama is getting nervous about Joe's chances. He's reportedly concerned about the strength of former President Donald Trump and he doesn't think Biden's campaign has their act fully together yet.

David Axelrod Has More to Say About Biden's Chances - The Powers That Be Should Listen

Report: Obama Worried About 2024 Biden Campaign, Aides Dish on Tension Between Camps

So who would that leave us with? While he predicts how the person will be selected, he doesn't predict who that will be. I suppose the presumed person would be Kamala Harris for a host of reasons. But California Gov. Gavin Newsom has certainly been posturing. Not only would Joe have to go for that, but Kamala as well. If anyone is as unpopular as Biden, it probably would be Kamala. So the DNC may figure that Newsom is their better bet to win. He's a horrible choice -- but they don't have any good choices.

Palms will be greased and pardons granted.

41 posted on 01/08/2024 6:36:19 AM PST by Aevery_Freeman (I didn't mis-gender you, You did!)

Amendment XXV

Section 3.

Whenever the President transmits to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives his written declaration that he is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, and until he transmits to them a written declaration to the contrary, such powers and duties shall be discharged by the Vice President as Acting President.

Section 4.

Whenever the Vice President and a majority of either the principal officers of the executive departments or of such other body as Congress may by law provide, transmit to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives their written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, the Vice President shall immediately assume the powers and duties of the office as Acting President.

Yet these have not been done……. 🤔

42 posted on 01/08/2024 6:36:34 AM PST by Lockbox (politicians, they all seemed like game show hosts to me.... Sting…)

Nothing new, I’ve been saying the exact same thing.

Any intelligent person, team, party knows Biden is demented and cannot win given the total failure of his policies.

It’s one thing to campaign during covid from your basement with no record, it’s another to have dozens of major failures and 3 years of evidence that he is demented and incapable of serving.

Yes, no question the Dems replace him. It does make sense to wait as things change, so the convention pick prediction is probably the smartest.

43 posted on 01/08/2024 6:44:16 AM PST by 1Old Pro

“Between Super Tuesday and November” is a pretty wide swath. The suggestion by a previous poster, of “just after the convention and his official nomination”, seems to hold water.

But that kind of disarray hardly seems conducive to inspiring enough confidence in the voting public to produce even a cheat-worthy race for the (D)s.

More plausible to me would be Heels-Up going belly-up, a la Ron Brown maybe, and being replaced by Noisome as VP, then, VOILA! the Cadaver steps down (to spend more time with family), Noisome becomes prez, with Whitmer or Hokul the new VP. It has to happen by Super Tuesday.

44 posted on 01/08/2024 7:13:58 AM PST by Migraine

Democratic National Committee will name a replacement to whom to pass the torch.

Witch one of the Chinese guys that crossed the border will the DNC select?.

45 posted on 01/08/2024 7:48:16 AM PST by Vaduz

46 posted on 01/08/2024 7:51:52 AM PST by coalminersson (since )

To: norwaypinesavage

I am totally baffled on this one.

Some of the time I think Newt is correct—nothing short of a dead Biden will prevent him from being the Democrat candidate.

Some of the time I think Biden’s handlers will show him the exit door at a time and place of their choosing.

Some of the time I think Biden will have an unplanned medical disaster—with chaos to follow.

This year could get really crazy....

47 posted on 01/08/2024 7:54:00 AM PST by cgbg ("Our democracy" = Their Kleptocracy)

He’ll have to pardon the whole mob family beforehand.

48 posted on 01/08/2024 8:36:24 AM PST by bgill

Yes the Dems modified their rules in 2022 just to set this up.

As long as they can get him through the convention and have him formally accept the nomination, then he can step aside or be forced aside or whatever you can’t to call it and the DNC can just name a replacement period.

Avoid a divisive primary and can just put up whoever they think is the strongest.

It’s a scam. I doubt highly that Biden will actually be on the ballot in Nov.

49 posted on 01/08/2024 8:52:17 AM PST by HamiltonJay

They are under no obligation to pick Kamala if Joe backs out.

They can literally name anyone as long as he has accepted the nomination before he withdraws.

Kamala will never be the nominee. She polls worse than Biden.

50 posted on 01/08/2024 9:07:47 AM PST by HamiltonJay

Avoid a decisive primary with candidates no one really wants. And all the nuts and fruits throwing their hats in the ring.

Prop up Biden until the convention, then have him drop out and name whoever they feel will do best in the general their nominee.

This is the Dems problem.. the radicals are overrepresented in their primaries and if they have an open primary they will get someone utterly unelectable.. or someone maybe like Kennedy which the party establishment hate.

So just skip all then and then name whoever they feel is the best general election chances.

51 posted on 01/08/2024 9:11:20 AM PST by HamiltonJay

If they replace Biden as the nominee, the obvious replacement for Kamala is Claudine Gay. A true African American female (not someone with a little African ancestry via Jamaica). They can promise Kamala the next available Supreme Court seat. Gay would be perfect so that even without Biden, they have a known plagiarist on the ticket.

52 posted on 01/08/2024 9:58:37 AM PST by Verginius Rufus

To: AdmSmith; AnonymousConservative; Arthur Wildfire! March; Berosus; Bockscar; BraveMan; cardinal4; ...

53 posted on 01/08/2024 9:49:43 PM PST by SunkenCiv (Politics do not make strange bedfellows, and the enemy of your enemy may still be your enemy.)

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794