J.P. Morgan Analyst Predicts Timing of When Biden Will Drop Out, How He Will Be Replaced

Red State ^ | 01/07/2024 | Nick Arama

[SeekAndFind]

One of J.P. Morgan strategist Michael Cembalest's predictions on his list of "Ten Surprises for 2024" is getting a lot of attentwidion beyond just folks interested in the market and investing. 

It's because Cembalest's third predicted "surprise" is that Joe Biden will pull out of the election between Super Tuesday and November, for health reasons.

pic.twitter.com/QvUyY1ZJBI— Dr. Nickarama (@nickaramaOG) January 7, 2024

Super Tuesday is the day that you have a lot of the states holding primaries and caucuses. This year, that's March 5. 

Cembalest says that after Biden steps down due to health, the Democratic National Committee will name a replacement to whom to pass the torch.

Biden has a low approval rating for a President with ~10% job creation since his inauguration, although that figure is the by-product of his inauguration coinciding with the rollout of COVID vaccines and a reopening US economy.

If you look at the chart above you can see how low Biden is, the lowest approval of anyone occupying the office at this point since inauguration, 1051 days. Cembalest notes the "job creation" number, but that it really isn't attributable to Biden because it's the people returning to work with the reopening of the economy after COVID. So people know that it isn't due to anything Biden has done. Meanwhile, they know that the things he has done have hurt the economy, like spending leading to more inflation. That's why he gets such low marks for the economy because people don't think he knows what the heck he is doing and because Bidenflation has been crushing them. They know how much more they've had to pay out of their pockets under Biden as opposed to under Trump. 

There are reasons to think that's not out in left field, particularly as the reality of how bad Joe's condition has become more and more apparent over the last couple of months. 

People are already nervous as Biden continues to wallow in the approval-level basement. We've seen folks like David Axelrod and James Carville say maybe he should get out for the good of the party. I wrote earlier about how Barack Obama is getting nervous about Joe's chances. He's reportedly concerned about the strength of former President Donald Trump and he doesn't think Biden's campaign has their act fully together yet. 

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David Axelrod Has More to Say About Biden's Chances - The Powers That Be Should Listen

Report: Obama Worried About 2024 Biden Campaign, Aides Dish on Tension Between Camps

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So who would that leave us with? While he predicts how the person will be selected, he doesn't predict who that will be. I suppose the presumed person would be Kamala Harris for a host of reasons. But California Gov. Gavin Newsom has certainly been posturing. Not only would Joe have to go for that, but Kamala as well. If anyone is as unpopular as Biden, it probably would be Kamala. So the DNC may figure that Newsom is their better bet to win. He's a horrible choice -- but they don't have any good choices. 

[HamiltonJay]

He will drop out after the convention.

Once hi accepts the nomination at the convention and he drops out the dnc can just name a nominee without a single vote cast. This has been the plan all along as far as I can guess.

[kiryandil]

the dnc can just name a nominee without a single vote cast

Our democrat-cy will be saved!!!

[EasySt]

Something like that worked for Kamala, if I recall correctly...

So why not? Can’t have nut jobs still proud to be Democrats picking their own
candidate, after all... And they’ve already demonstrated that they will be just
fine with the DNC doing the picking for them.

[PGR88]

He will be stroked-out

They’ll have a shot of him at the convention looking like Captain Pike from Star Trek to rally the troops.

[Alvin Diogenes]

Mark Cuban is planning for some variation of this.

[Angelino97]

President Harris?

Or if not, if Newsome replaces Biden, the VP nominee must be a woman of color. It can't be Harris. Too demeaning for her to be passed up for the top slot and run again as VP.

[ganeemead]

Nothing but the power of the presidency is keeping the pig boy and his whole family out of prisons. I do not picture him giving it up voluntarily.

[The Great RJ]

I too expect Joe to drop out. His Valley Forge rant seemed to be drug induced and he was quickly whisked aside by “Dr” Jill and packed off to Delaware before the drugs wore off and he crashed. No way he physically he could campaign at this point. Dumping Kamala will not sit well with Black voters and Newsome has nothing to run on except turn the entire country into the dung heap of California. Having Joe drop out for health reasons begs the question as to when exactly did he become incapacitated. Unless he has a stroke or drops dead it would be difficult to explain why now when he has been in obvious decline almost since his election

[dennisw]

Now don’t you go
being a grump
Though he turned Cali
Into a dump

Guvnor Hair Gel is my man
We’ll end up living in La-La Land

[dennisw]

“This is like something out of a fairy tale, a bad fairy tale.”

That line, from the speech of President Joe Biden at Valley Forge this week, may have been the most accurate observation in the entire address kicking off Biden’s 2024 campaign.

The speech was a masterpiece of contradiction. Biden started by denouncing how Donald Trump’s campaign is only “about him” and “obsessed with the past.” He then spent virtually all of the speech obsessing about Trump and Jan. 6, 2021.

It was an early indication of the Orwellian character of the speech. Facing the lowest polling numbers of any modern president, Biden attempted a constructive substitution. “Democracy is on the ballot,” he said. So voters do not have to vote for him. When they see Biden, they should just read “democracy.”
That will require more than an act of substitution in the voting booth. It would require an act of willful blindness.

Biden spoke of how Democrats are fighting to protect the “right to vote.” Democratic activists and officials across the country are seeking to remove Trump from the ballot even though he is the most popular choice for the presidency right now.

In fact, dozens of Democratic officials have sought to remove 126 Republicans from Congress on the same basis. Even as Biden was telling citizens to vote Democrat to preserve democracy, a Democratic activist was seeking to remove a GOP congressman from the ballot in a nearby Pennsylvania district.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/opinion-joe-biden-is-no-george-washington-and-valley-forge-proved-it/ar-AA1myuCY

[AlaskaErik]

He will drop out after the convention.

Once hi accepts the nomination at the convention and he drops out the dnc can just name a nominee without a single vote cast. This has been the plan all along as far as I can guess.

This is when it will happen for that reason. DNC can name whomever they want after the convention. I'm surprised the analyst didn't pick up on that.

[vivenne]

Is he running for President?

[AlaskaErik]

It can't be Harris. Too demeaning for her to be passed up for the top slot and run again as VP.

The people behind the curtain have plenty of dirt on Harris. It won't be hard to "persuade" her to drop out.

[stylin19a]

hmmmm... no mention of the Capybara of Chappaqua ?
In a short period of time ?
that should be the only RAT acceptable candidate...is there a reason she’s losing weight and wrinkles ?

[chajin]

The dirty little secret, which is neither little nor a secret, is that it doesn’t matter who the Dem nominee is, because the policies will be exactly the same regardless; all that matters is who looks best on the stump and on TV. That would be Hakeem Jeffries, though no one is mentioning his name yet.

[Alvin Diogenes]

Last I heard McGregor was hinting at it. This was after the rioting in Dublin triggered by a knife attack in which an Algerian immigrant stabbed three young kids and an adult. The government blamed the rioting on right-wing xenophobia and didn’t acknowledge any problem with immigration. (The government there is crazy woke and pro-censorship.)

I don’t really follow Irish politics, so I may be wrong on some of the details.

[Alvin Diogenes]

Sorry, wrong thread :).

As for Cuban, he got into a big to-do on X with Bill Ackman in which Cuban defended DEI. My speculation is that Cuban is thinking of getting into politics and was establishing credibility with the Dems.

[Nervous Tick]

Jill Biden and Obama won’t let him quit.

[Brooklyn Attitude]

It’s cute that everyone seems to think voting still matters as the DemocRAT election stealing machine rolls on without Repub resistance.