Back in the saddle. The past couple days were filled with attending the Trump rally in Montana - and recovering from the event. Great experience.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate to High THREAT - up dated July 14, 2024
— Attempted assassination of Trump.
August 19 - DNC convention in Chicago, IL
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FORWARD OBSERVER is reporting that some anarchist podcasts are calling for more violent action but at the same time complaining about lack of momentum and ferver. They are assessing that support was essentially cut off following the 2020 riots, forcing a roll back in action levels. These anarchist elements then focused on internally preparing lines of command, psyops, logistics, combat (violence) element coordination to duplicate the same in 2024.
OBSERVATION - We’ve seen Antifa, et al, fall in supporting the pro-hamas protests and riots, but those actions were not enough to rally the marxist corps to the full scale revolution they had hoped to kick off for 2024. Barring any significant triggering event, it is unlikely that they will be capable of any significant actions this year. However, with the ongoing and highly volatile campaign season, global instability and economy on the edge all stirred up with uncontrolled illegal penetrations - anything can happen.
Terrorism - Heightened THREAT as of Aug 1, 2024
The FBI and Maui Police Department provided an update today with information on the explosion of an improvised explosive device (IED) in Pukalani on Thursday. The agencies jointly issued a public safety warning yesterday regarding recent reports of IEDs recovered in the Kahului and Pukalani areas.
The incident occurred on Old Haleakalā Highway on Aug. 8, 2024 when an IED, which had been placed in a nearby trash receptacle, exploded. The explosion struck a passing vehicle, and the driver was transported to the hospital and released, according to the FBI.
“The FBI and MPD have identified and collected several IEDs which vary in size and shape, and has rendered them safe. The recovered devices have been located along roadways between Kahului and Kula, and were concealed from view in trash receptacles or other areas outside of plain view,” according to a joint news release.
https://mauinow.com/2024/08/09/fbi-and-maui-police-release-new-details-on-ied-explosion-in-pukalani/
OBSERVATION - At this stage to fully declare the event as terrorism versus some bored prank by high schoolers isn’t fully established. Unless the act is a terror incident, I really don’t see terrorists wasting time and potential detection by such low level attacks.
Economy- HIGH Threat - as of AUG 5, 2024
39% of US adults indicated that they worry most or all of the time that their family’s income won’t be enough to make ends meet. This marks a significant increase from December 2021, when that figure stood at 28%. These recent figures are also quite similar to those of the Great Recession, when they hovered around 37%.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Coming up short 10 percent of its required enlisted force means the Coast Guard “can’t crew all our ships” and has had to “temporarily shutter some of our smaller stations,” the vice commandant said Wednesday.
Adm. Kevin Lunday, speaking at the Brookings Institution, added, “We had to lay up three of our major cutters because we don’t have enough enlisted personnel to crew them.” Since the action, the service has shifted funds from other parts of the budget to bolster recruiting and retention.
He described the “controlled parts exchanged,” borrowing from another vessel to get a cutter underway, as “the fancy term for cannibalization.” If it continues over time, “you’re eating your readiness.”
POLITICAL FRONT –
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****
The Trump campaign claimed that its internal communications were hacked by “foreign sources hostile to the United States,” according to a recent report.
Trump campaign spokesman Steven Cheung confirmed to Politico that “documents were obtained illegally from foreign sources” that were deemed “hostile” to the nation. The statement from Cheung came after the outlet had reportedly received “emails from an anonymous account with internal documents from former President Donald Trump’s campaign beginning around July 22.”
Cheung’s statement comes after Microsoft released a nine-page report on Friday revealing that it had been “tracking” activity that “increasingly points to Iran’s intent to influence this year’s US presidential election.”
In a blog from Microsoft, the company discussed activities by several groups with connections to the “Iranian government.”
***
Harris copied a campaign promise first announced by former President Donald Trump to eliminate taxes on tips.
During a campaign rally in Nevada on Saturday, Harris acknowledged that Culinary Union Local 226 was at the rally, and she continued on to vow that if elected president in November, she would work to “raise the minimum wage” and “eliminate taxes on tips for service and hospitality workers.”
Harris’s promise comes after Trump announced in June during a rally in Las Vegas
OBSERVATION - Harris, who now claims to be against taxing tips, was the tie-breaking vote on the Inflation Reduction Act, which expanded the IRS so it could go after people not paying taxes on tips.
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Retired Minnesota National Guard Command Sergeant Major Doug Julin in a CNN interview, gutted Walz’s version of his ‘retirement’. Not only did Walz know that his unit would be deployed when he suddenly retired, Walz back-doored Julin in applying for retirement, he explains, leaving his unit in the lurch.
OBSERVATION - The key here is that Walz fully knew the deployment was coming - and waited. The issue of a ‘stop loss’, an administrative measure to lock unit personnel in place to prevent key personnel disruptions and losses, was in place when Walz applied to retire. (my tour in Germany was extended due to stop loss executed for Desert Shield/Storm). CSM Julian makes it clear Waltz went behind his back (Julian was in a higher NG position and over Walz), he would have denied the retirement based on stop loss, because the unit was within a few weeks of deployment. Article link provides greater details on the whole affair.
Walz was in the command group and knew full well a deployment was coming. His last minute bail out was a disgrace to the NCO corps, his Stolen Valor claims negated any honorable mention of that service.
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Tim Walz has repeatedly hosted a Muslim cleric who praises Hitler, as well as including him in his 2019 state address. Asad Zaman has also recently praised the October 7 massacre and atrocities as a legitimate expression of Palestinian grievances:
Biden / Harris Watch –
CNN panelists called for presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris to face the media and answer voters’ questions Saturday on “The Chris Wallace Show.”
Biden dropped his reelection bid July 21, subsequently endorsing his vice president to take his place on the 2024 ticket. Harris has not formally addressed the press in the 20 days since she was called on to replace Biden.
OBSERVATION - The honeymoon period with the press is soon coming to an end and Harris will have to face the press sooner than later. When she does, break out the salad dressing folks.
***
The Harris Campaign website has reportedly “tweaked” (read: corrected) the military record of its vice presidential candidate, Democrat Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, after it was exposed that Walz has been exaggerating his rank at the time of his retirement from the Army National Guard in 2005.
Walz has yet to correct the falsehood on his official government website biography.
Walz has since stated that he “misspoke” (i.e. - lied) concerning his military service
Illegal Immigration –
According to a DHS report reviewed by Breitbart Texas, 1,953 migrants from the People’s Republic of China (PRC) were apprehended at the southwest border during the month of July. This brings this year’s total number of PRC nationals apprehended at the border to 35,300.
Related - Two illegals from China were arrested with $250k worth of gold bullion.
OBSERVATION - Chinese illegals continue to be one of the top concerns for terror and crimes - right up there with islamic radicals who’ve entered illegally as well.
China –
See Philippines below.
Phillipines –
Manila and Beijing accused each other on Saturday of disrupting their militaries’ operations around the Scarborough Shoal in the first incident since Marcos took office in 2022 in which the Philippines has complained of dangerous actions by Chinese aircraft, as opposed to navy or coast guard vessels.
The Philippine military on Saturday condemned “dangerous and provocative actions” when two Chinese aircraft dropped flares in the path of a Philippine aircraft during a routine patrol around the shoal on Thursday.
The Chinese military’s Southern Theatre Command countered that the Philippines had disrupted its training, accusing Manila of “illegally intruding” into its airspace.
https://www.newsmax.com/world/globaltalk/china-philippines/2024/08/11/id/1176058/
Russia -
Logistics –
2 European intelligence sources told Reuters that dozens of Russian military personnel are being trained in Iran to use the Fath-360 close-range ballistic missile system, adding that they expected the imminent delivery of hundreds of the satellite-guided weapons to Russia for its war in Ukraine. Russian defence ministry representatives are believed to have signed a contract on Dec. 13 in Tehran with Iranian officials for the Fath-360 and another ballistic missile system
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the 80 - 90 degree range and fair.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
More like a summary of the last 48-72 hours
Russia continued drone attacks across Ukraine. Ukraine’s Air Force reports that they shot down 53 of 57 attack drones (UAVs).
A post on the force’s Telegram account lists a number of regions where the drones were destroyed, including Odesa, Kyiv, Sumy and Cherkasy.
Ukraine launched a large drone attack on the Kursk region. Russian ministry of defense claims 14 drones and 4 Tochka-U missiles were shot down over Kursk region, 16 more drone were shot down over Voronezh, Belgorod, Oryol and Bryansk regions. However, many explosions and large fires reported over the area.
Fire reported after explosions in Persianovka village near Kuzminsky training ground in Rostov region from likely Ukraine drone attack.
Violent explosion from Russian ammo site was reported in Horlivka.
A massive secondary explosion of an ammunition depot at the Russian Morozovsk military air base caused by an attack of Ukrainian forces.
Governior of Bryansk region reports many civilians from the towns and villages near the border have decided to evacuate
Ukraine Kursk Offensive-
Below is a link to a figure estimating the extent of Ukrainian’s advance into Russia six days into the offensive -
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GUmVAtfXkAAGDI-.jpg
Below is a vid on “X” that also depicts the action over the past days
https://x.com/i/status/1822554984036102312
Russian media reporting clashes or even new incursion in Belovsky district of Kursk region
Over 76,000 people have been evacuated from the Kursk region’s border districts overall, the regional emergencies ministry said. Previously, the mayor of Kursk said over 16,000 evacuees had applied for aid in the city of Kursk alone. 16,000 residents of areas near the border have evacuated due to the Ukrainian incursion, the mayor of Kursk said
It seems the Russians really have no idea how much is actually coming into Kursk, but given the amount of success the UA is having, some OSINT analysts believes 2 brigades are in, 4 more are on the way, and 8 brigades are in reserve. Ukraine holding very tight OPSEC, so these numbers are still speculative.
From Russian milblogger - TG Romanov_92, - an important few observations: (1) RU comms are apparently lacking or non-existent; (2) RuAF are using conventional bombs without UMPK kits; (3) the RU lines are so porous that when resistance is met, UA goes around them.
Two Russian battalions, the 17th battalion of the 488th regiment and the 31st battalion of the 102nd brigade, are reportedly encircled near Sudzha. Z-bloggers claim that the command is aware of the situation but is not taking action.
The Ukrainian Navy struck a Russian gas platform in the Black Sea, which housed technical reconnaissance equipment and up to 40 personnel. The platform is reportedly still burning.
Ukraine destroyed a massive Russian weapons supply in Rostov, Russia. Huge secondary explosions continued long after the strike.
Ukrainian artillery hit and destroyed a convoy carrying T-80 tanks of Russian forces near Koronevo Kursk region. A second convoy carrying hundreds of Russian soldiers was also destroyed by a HIMARs strike.
Outlook —
It is hard to summarize the action over the past few days as Ukraine has held to a pretty tight OPSEC regiment and most of the on the ground intelligence is coming from imbedded Russian milbloggers.
Bottom line up front is Russia has been totally messed up and Ukraine is laying it on thick and heavy.
If you view the little video showing the progress of the offensive, you’ll see that Ukraine is being successful applying combined arms tactics and mobile warfare - moving fast, bypassing pockets of resistance for follow on forces to elimate. Ukraine in less than a week has captured more territory than Russia has in the spring/summer offensive with far far fewer casualties. It was this kind of warfare that was hoped for during last summer’s Ukraine offensive.
From another tactical viewpoint - they are controlling the high ground that overlooks major supply routes (rail and roads). That success has resulted in at least two significant Russian reinforcement convoys being ambushed and eliminated - probably more have been hit.
This brings into focus the disorganized Russian attempts to shift forces to stop the assault. Russia has had their forces committed to trying to exploit marginal successes in the Ocheretyne / Donetsk regions - committing its limited reserves to the region. Available units for Russia consist of heavily depleted units pulled out of the fight and attempting to reconstitute.
Now throw into the mix the complexity of these forces loading up, driving a long distance around Ukraine, staging and entering into a fight they have little to poor intelligence about. Hence units are being thrown into the fray in a piecemeal fashion and are being defeated in detail.
This massive attempt to stop the offensive has now stripped critical forces from other areas of the front that could now be susceptible to Ukainian counter attacks.
Russia is in a serious fix as Ukraine is beginning to exploit another breakthrough to the east of the salient that could encircle the Russian forces in the Kharkiv region.
Ukraine threatens a major nuclear power plant as well as Kursk proper. Russia is lacking the coordination and forces to stop the assault in the near future. Ultimate Ukranian goals are still obscure, but the immediate goals appear to be lethally effective and just how deep Ukraine can plunge is limited only by the combat resources at hand.
Belarus -
Belarus is relocating “Iskander” missile systems and “Polonez” multiple rocket launchers to the border with Ukraine, according to the country’s Ministry of Defense. Additionally, Lukashenko has ordered the strengthening of military forces in the Gomel and Mozyr tactical directions.
The Chargé d’Affaires of Ukraine in the Republic of Belarus Olga Timush was summoned to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Belarus, a strong protest was lodged and a corresponding note was sent in connection with the violation of the border of the Republic of Belarus by a group of unmanned aerial vehicles launched from the territory of Ukraine.
OBSERVATION - It is still unlikely that the Belarus military will happily go to war against Ukraine at putin’s order. Even though they’ve received a lot of training by Russians and Wagners over the past couple years, they’ve seen the meat grinder in action and are not willing to become active participants. There are still elements of the military who are at odds over Lukashenko’s takeover of the govt.
Europe / NATO General –
French General Bertrand Toujouse warned Western officials that in the event of a Russian attack or invasion into Europe, NATO countries will have difficulties deploying troops and equipment across Europe’s many borders due to “administration red tape” and customs regulations. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius maintains that Russia could launch an invasion by 2029, although some European intelligence agencies believe that date is sooner.
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British police threaten to extradite US (and other foreigners) for social messages negative towards the armed moslem gangs roving throughout England. Even targeting Elon Musk by name.
US patriots have had a field day on social media- Bring it on bro.
ISRAEL –
Tisha B’Av, August 12 and ends on August 13,
Key overnight developments -
- Guessing game continues as to when Hezbollah and Iran will attack.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
U.S. Central Command’s (CENTCOM) General Michael Kurilla made his second trip to Israel in a week to discuss the security situation and to coordinate a defense plan with General Herzi Halevi, chief of the staff for the Israeli Defense Force.
A member of Iran’s Parliament warned that the expected Iranian attack against Israel could last multiple days, Iranian opposition news source Iran International reported.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
The Israeli army issues a new evacuation order for Palestinians in the Khan Younis area in the southern Gaza Strip, following rocket fire on southern Israel. Four rockets were launched at the border community of Kissufim earlier on Saturday, causing no injuries.
The Israeli military says it killed 19 Hamas and Islamic Jihad militants at a command and control center inside a mosque at the al-Tabaeen school compound. The militants promoted attacks against Israeli army troops and Israel
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Israeli army says it carried out a series of airstrikes in southern Lebanon overnight , targeting Hezbollah sites and operatives. According to the Israeli army, the targets included a Hezbollah operative spotted entering a building in Tayr Harfa; rocket launchers in Houla and Qalaat Debba; a drone primed for launch and a member of Hezbollah’s aerial forces in an undisclosed area of southern Lebanon; and buildings used by Hezbollah and weapons depots in Hanine, Ayta ash-Shab, Khiam, and Blida.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Iran is set to carry out an order by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to “harshly punish” Israel over the assassination of a Hamas leader in Tehran, a Revolutionary Guards deputy commander was quoted as saying on Friday by local news agencies
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Israeli attacked the Shayrat military airport in the Homs region of Syria. Shayrat Airbase has long been well-known also as a base of Russian troop operations over several years. It remains unknown if Russians were present at the base when it was struck late Thursday night. Some Israeli sources have said ammo storage depots were hit, or else ‘Iranian assets’ were targeted – as is the usual refrain after such operations.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Israel security forces active throughout the west bank.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
A suicide drone attack targeted the US base Kharab al-Jir” in the countryside of Hasakah, and the coalition forces shoot down another plane that tried to target the base.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Jordanian Foreign Minister: We informed Iran and Israel that we will shoot down any target in the skies of Jordan. Jordan also stated that it is willing to cooperate with Israel to open its airspace to IAF intercepts of drones and cruise missiles should the Iranian attack occur.
Jordan has informed Israel that it will allow its air force to participate in the interception of the expected Iranian attack that will pass through the kingdom’s airspace, security officials in Amman said. According to the same sources, there is security, military and intelligence coordination between Jordan and Israel, regarding the expected Iranian response.
According to Axios; the U.S, U.K, Israel, France, and several arab nations are now finalizing their plans and preparations to defend against a large-scale Iranian and/or Hezbollah attack against Israel; with intense diplomacy going on “Behind-the-Scenes” in an attempted to prevent the attack.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Eyes still monitoring for the expected missile strikes from Hezbollah and Iran. Earlier, I thought the attack would be sooner, however, with the onset of Tisha B’Av, August 12, the intensity of the watch is increasing. This due to the arab history of striking on an Israeli high day - Yom Kippur and the Oct7 Hamas attacks for instance.
Iran’s military exercises designed to mask preparations for the attack continue. Hezbollah has less logistics to prepare so such exercises are not as necessary.
A multi-day attack is very likely and will result in serious counter strikes by Israel against both Hezbollah and Iran. Escalation beyond that is problematical.
The degree and size of the Iranian strikes has hit internal discord within the Iranian govt, but it appears that the religious rulers are overruling the new Iranian president. Can’t predict what will happen beyond this.
This next week could be huge and repercussions could be extensive from and attack of the size being conservatively speculated on.
Iran –
Iran’s new president Pezeshkian is battling the IRGC in an attempt to prevent all-out war with Israel, according to The Telegraph. Top generals in IRGC are insisting on a direct strike on Tel Aviv and other Israeli cities, focusing on military bases to avoid civilian casualties, in response to the killing of Hamas leader Haniyeh in Tehran. But Pezeshkian has suggested targeting “secret Israeli bases” in Iran’s neighboring countries, as it did in the past, before the first-ever direct attack on Israel in April
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Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guards are holding military drills in the western parts of the country that will continue until Tuesday, Iran’s official news agency announced on Sunday.
The drills, which started on Friday, are ongoing in the western province of Kermanshah, close to the border with Iraq, to “enhance combat readiness and vigilance,” an armed forces official told IRNA. - Post
Venezuela -
The Supreme Court of the Maduro regime has ruled that the President-Elect Edmundo Gonzalez is in contempt of court.
The Maduro regime is just starting their persecution of opposition leaders
OBSERVATION - This whole election was based on an agreement with biden to have a fair and open election in exchange for lifting of sanctions. Well you can see that this is another fine mess the regime has made. The opposition is continuing to lose ground as Maduro consolidates the military and courts to take out his opposition. And the opposition has failed to take the big step - one that would include violence and near civil war - to expel Maduro.
Gibran/hezbollah warning
Increasing indications of an attack in the next 24/48 hours
RUMINT hezbollah leader nasarallah in serious condition following an assissination attempt
