CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate to High THREAT - up dated July 14, 2024
— Attempted assassination of Trump.
August 19 - DNC convention in Chicago, IL
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Chicago reportedly preparing to process a lot of arrests during the convention, announcing extended court hours.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
U.S. Secretary of Defense, Lloyd Austin has ordered the USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN-72) and Carrier Strike Group 3, who just departed yesterday from Guam, to expedite their deployment to the Middle East; while the USS Georgia (SSGN-729), an Ohio-Class Guided-Missile Submarine armed with over 150 Tomahawk Land-Attack Cruise Missiles, been directed to immediately reposition from her current location in the Mediterranean, to the U.S. Central Command’s Area-of-Operations.
OBSERVATION - The Lincoln is at least a week away - at full speed - from reaching a position to begin to influence any fight. It would have to do so alone since its top speed exceeds its support group. Dangerous to have a flattop without its escorts. The group would take a couple extra days if it stays together in formation.
A very unusual announcement involving there USS Georgia - deployments of our submarines normally is kept very secret and in the Georgia’s case, its Tomahawk weapons are offensive in nature.
POLITICAL FRONT –
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
Debates
FoxNews Sept 4th
ABC September 10th
NBC September 25
**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****
Word is that Trump got harris to agree to three debates. Harris representatives reportedly still disagree with the Fox hosted one.
Debates are set for Trump and Kamala
FoxNews Sept 4th
ABC September 10th
NBC September 25
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Walz’s military record has taken more hits over the weekend with numerous videos and documents where he claimed CSM retirement and deployment to the middle east. The unit chaplain’s critique was joined by the Brigade CSM and Walz’s own battalion commander who basically destroyed his narrative around the whole circumstances of his departure. The harris campaign has tried to say he ‘misspoke’, but that is gaining no ground. There are growing rumors that he may step down
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Analysis of various rally photos of harris rallies released by harris campaign and allies show evidence of being AI generated or enhanced.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Harris is getting hammered for proposing that tips be exempt from income taxes - hmmm where have we heard that before. Made all the worse is that she cast the tie breaking vote to hire more IRS agents to hunt down those not reporting tips.
Similar hammering taking place over recent declarations that she will beef up border security. Where has she been the last 3 and half years - other than making matters worse.
Meanwhile, she has put out no other policy proposals, now 20 days into her campaign.
Cyber attacks/warfare – HEIGHTENED ALERT as of Aug 1, 2024
The U.S. government is offering a reward of up to $10 million for information leading to the arrest of Iranian hackers accused of infiltrating and compromising industrial control systems of U.S. water infrastructure in 2023.
These hackers, believed to be associated with Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, specifically targeted a local water authority’s control system in Pennsylvania and other critical infrastructure across the U.S. The group responsible, known as “Cyber Av3ngers,” is suspected by the U.S. government to be a front for malicious cyber activities orchestrated by the Iranian government.
Russia -
Russia is threatening Ukraine and NATO, stating that a severe response to strikes on Russian regions is coming.
“The organizers and perpetrators of these crimes, including their foreign curators, will be held responsible for them.”
RUMINT-
President Putin to address the world later today.
Rumors coming out that he will declare full scale war on Ukraine. Will order Kiev and Lviv destroyed!
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the 80 - 90 degree range and fair.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
OPSEC is still the name of the game by Ukraine. I’ve pulled the Kursk offensive material into a separate section.
It is believed Russian forces have set tires on fire inside one of the cooling towers at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. Currently, radiation levels are within norm.
A swarm of Ukrainian drones struck the Chkalovsky air base near Moscow. It is the home to IL-80 russian doomsday planes that Putin would be on if nuclear war broke out.
Russia continued to attack along its current primary assault axis of Ocheretyne, but with not reported gains.
Ukraine Kursk Offensive-
NOTE - Much of the OSINT is coming from Russian based reports. Situation on the ground is still confused and changing minute by minute.
Ukrainian forces have reportedly broke through the Russian border near Bezimeno and Kolotilovka in the Belgorod Region (red arrows). Conflicts are ongoing. Map below
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GUtdf1pWAAADj4K.jpg
Evacuation announced in Belovsky district of Kursk region.
Governor of Belgorod region announced evacuation in Krasnaya Yaruga district
Ukrainian armored vehicles have visually confirmed entered the village of Gir’i. They are operating unimpededly between this village and Belitsa.
It is the strongest indication so far that the entire area between Sudzha and Gir’i is under Ukrainian control, possibly even all the way to Belaya.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GUxYgLlXsAAJTQo.jpg
NOTE, the above link is the better of the two maps
Number of prisoners is approaching 3000. Among the videos there are numerous groups of Akhmat-Kadirovites (Chechen)
Ukrainian special forces with night vision equipment are creating havoc in Kursk oblast at night as poorly equipped Russians units have no answers.
Reports of Ukrainian fighter jets flying over the Kursk region of Russia
Russian Ministry of Defense claims Russian troops foiled Ukrainian advance attempt at Kauchuk town of Kursk region
Outlook —
If the news coming out from the Russian side is anywhere near accurate - Ukraine still has Russia by the private parts in this offensive. Ukraine has deeply deployed scouts and special ops which is causing a lot of confusion and destruction in the rear areas. Unconfirmed reports that Ukraine scout units have executed several successful ambushes of Russian convoys brining reinforcements into the region.
A supporting attack appears to be developing and headed into the Belgorod Oblast. This could be designed to link up with a renewed push to the east southeast on the Kursk front. Likely taking advantage of units pulled out to reinforce Kursk.
Deep strike against the Moscow region hasn’t taken place for many months, and Ukraine is after it.
Some analysts are trying to determine how much more the Ukraine army will attempt in this push. Some are on a pessimistic side. A lot will depend on how badly mauled the Russia reinforcements get before they even make it to the battle line.
Additional eyes and ears on putin today. He my use this assault to declare full war against Ukraine - and cease being a police security operation. His options are thin at this stage. His mobilized conscripts have been barely enough to replace the casualties being received on the front (well over 30,000 per month). To counter this attack he will have to drastically drawdown the ongoing offensive ops further south - an potentially see local Ukrainian counter attacks regain land. These units being pulled from southern areas are only marginally combat effective, being pulled back to re-man and re-arm.
He may have to further strip other military districts of their units and ship to the front. That takes a lot of time and planning.
He has strategic bombers and associated cruise and ballistic missiles. It has been a while since the last major attack, so he may have some stockpile built. He can’t really count on missile carriers of the Black Sea fleet, unless he wants to risk more losses there.
Finally, the absolute worst case, is that putin uses a tactical nuke. He’s been threatening for the past 3 years and if Ukraine continues to make headway, he may resort to the desperate measure.
With everything going on in the north, Ukraine still has the Kerch Bridge wild card to play.
Ukraine has seized the initiative and is pressing its advantage.
ISRAEL –
Tisha B’Av, August 12 and ends on August 13,
Key overnight developments -
- Hospitals in N Israel on high alert
- Hamas refuses latest hostage / ceasefire deal.
- Israeli intel continues to warn of impending strike.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
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Hospitals in northern Israel on high alert, preparing to operate underground in case of emergency
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Hamas says in a statement that it refuses to participate in the hostage deal negotiations on August 15. Some believe that this is a post-strike day and that they may have better bargaining positions after the Iran/Hezbollah attack.
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Unconfirmed at this point - The updated assessment of the Israeli intelligence community is that Iran has decided to attack Israel directly in retaliation for the assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh and may do within days, even before the August 15 hostage deal talks, according to 2 unidentified sources
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Defense Minister Yoav Gallant says Israel has been bolstering its defenses in recent days amid an anticipated Iranian and Hezbollah attack on the country, as well as preparing potential attacks as a response, or preemptive actions if needed. “We are in the days of vigilance and readiness, the threats from Tehran and Beirut may materialize and it is important to explain to everyone that readiness, preparedness, and vigilance are not synonyms for fear and panic,” says Gallant at a meeting of the Knesset’s Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee.
CNN reports: Israeli intelligence believes that Hezbollah will launch an attack on August 12 (tomorrow, the evening of Tisha B’av), and hours later, Iran will join and launch its own attack.
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Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has instructed his cabinet not to publicly discuss security matters in the coming days amid the tense wait for Iran and Hezbollah’s retribution for the elimination of Ismail Haniyeh and Fuad Shukr, Kan Reshet Bet reported on Monday.
“These are fateful days,” Netanyahu told the ministers and asked them to remain silent on matters of defense.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Israeli media: The army expands the scope of its closed military zone around Gaza after a new assessment
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
IDF says 30 Hezbollah rockets were fired from southern Lebanon at northern Israel communities which landed in open areas setting fields ablaze; Israeli forces responded by attacking several terror installations in southern Lebanon, injuring 12
NOTE - This rocket attack caused some discussion that the Iron Dome system failed to intercept the rockets. The rockets that hit the ground, did so in open areas away from people and where they could do minimal damage - such is the design of Iron Dome to economize the targeting efforts.
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Unconfirmed reports that Hezbollah has evacuated its political headquarters in Da’ha in Beirut. According to the Lebanese reports, computers and other electronic equipment were also evacuated.
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RUMINT - Unverified rumors in Lebanon that Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah is hospitalized following an assassination attempt. This morning no further news or info - strongly suspect that this is a nothing burger.
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While the Israeli home front awaits a response from the Iranian-led axis, potentially involving an extreme barrage of rockets, various types of missiles, and drones, officers in the Northern Command warn that the threat of a ground infiltration into communities along the northern border remains.
According to the officers, contrary to popular belief, Hezbollah’s Radwan Force is still capable of launching an organized attack on the border, including efforts to penetrate a community or military post.
“Why hasn’t Hezbollah done this yet? Because they have chosen not to. But anyone who thinks that Hezbollah isn’t training to infiltrate a squad of fighters into Israeli territory is mistaken,” officers said.
Security officials estimated in a conversation with Walla that while the IDF has indeed significantly damaged the infrastructure of the Radwan Force near the border, thereby reducing its ability to conduct a large-scale surprise infiltration into Israeli territory, Hezbollah has not abandoned its intention to respond to the assassination of Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr.
https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-814335
OBSERVATION - The effectiveness of the Radwan force initially was based on earlier Israeli preparedness levels of pre-Oct 7. The heightened alert status - a lot more ground forces patrolling the border and the ongoing damage have taken Radwan down a few notches. Still a terror threat.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Syrian State Media is reporting strikes by Israeli artillery on military sites in the Daraa District of southwestern Syria, near the border with Israel.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
U.S.-led coalition fighter jets attacked Houthi targets on Kamran Island, northeast of Hudaydah in Yemen.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Leaders of UK, France and Germany call for a ceasefire and release of hostages as the slaughter mounts in Gaza
——— FORECAST ————————-
Another window of warning ongoing. Continued indicators that infer Iran and Hezbollah are putting the final pieces together for the strike. Of course delay is a major psyop measure that Iran and its proxies have used to their advantage for quite some time now. Is wears down the opponent’s readiness. It is double bladed in that it also wears down its own forces.
The Pentagon is scrambling to get naval forces into place. The arrival of the USS Lincoln CSG is at least a week away. Only effective if things blow out in a greater manner.
Speculation still centers on Hezbollah launching the first wave of attacks in an effort to wear down Israeli air defenses and hopefully get some lucky hits. Iran would follow with the next wave(s) counting on IAF busy targeting Hezbollah and not ready to intercept the wave of drones and cruise missiles.
With biden essentially out of the mix, Netanyahu is more likely to counter strike Iran and do it hard. It can go unsaid that Hezbollah and Lebanon will also be hammered as well. This could trigger the awaited Israeli ground offensive into Lebanon.
Folks, the decision tree is cluttered with options. Only thing certain is that the first round(s) of strikes / counter strikes will be at a level we’ve never seen in the region outside of the US invasion of Iraq. Where it goes from there is uncertain.
Iran –
Iranian media outlets reported that Mohammad Javad Zarif, the Deputy for Strategic Affairs of Masoud Pezeshkian, has resigned. He announced his decision after releasing a critical statement in response to the President’s proposed cabinet
Syria -
Shellings renewed overnight between SDF and government/Iran-linked groups along both banks of the Euphrates River in Deir Ez-Zour of northeast Syria. Civilian casualties and displacement were reported. Tensions remain high in Hasakah and Qamishli as well. A Russian delegation mediates between both sides, with no results yet
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Turkish Defense Minister: Withdrawal from Syria cannot be discussed until agreement on new constitution, elections and securing borders
