Globalism / Great Reset –
ICC Prosecutor Karim Khan has threatened US Congressmen for criticizing the recent judgement against Israel.
The ICC has made it clear that criticizing the court and threatening sanctions when it violates its own rules is illegal. The ICC is threatening to issue arrest warrants against 12 members of Congress.
OBSERVATION - The arrogance of globalist linked organizations like the ICC will continue to grow IMHO in the absence of strong push back from the United States.
Economy-
Inflation continues to re-accelerate, rising again in April according to personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index data released by the Biden government on Friday. The PCE index, an important measure of inflation for the Federal Reserve, rose by 0.3 percent last month, meaning inflation remains stubbornly around three percent — still above the central bank’s two percent target.
https://thenationalpulse.com/2024/05/31/bidenomics-inflation-rises-again-in-april/
***
After unexpectedly slumping last month to 37.9, the Chicago PMI index cratered even more unexpectedly in May, when it defied hopes of a rebound to 41.5, and instead tumbled even more, sliding to a cycle low of 35.4 which was not only below the lowest estimate, but was staggeringly low. (in comparison to previous lows) the economy is in a depression.
Looking at the report we find the following:
- Business barometer fell at a faster pace; signaling contraction
- New orders fell at a faster pace; signaling contraction
- Employment fell at a faster pace; signaling contraction
- Inventories fell at a faster pace; signaling contraction
- Supplier deliveries fell at a slower pace; signaling contraction
- Production fell at a slower pace; signaling contraction
- Order backlogs fell at a faster pace; signaling contraction
Did nothing rise? One thing did:
- Prices paid rose at a slower pace; signaling expansion
So we have not just a depression, but a stagflationary depression in which everything else is going to hell, except prices: they keep on rising.
OBSERVATION - The PMI is one of those magic numbers economists use to gauge the economy and its trends. Note that these are their opinions of the data. Theirs is not the only economic voice expressing concerns about potential stagflation, but it gets stark associating it with a depression.
Note too that the GDP for last month was lowered by .3 while inflationary pressures continue to increase (see PCE above).
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
- USS Ronald Reagan (CVN 76) departed Japan for the final time & on patrol in the Western Pacific
- USS Theodore Roosevelt (CVN 71) carrier strike group (CSG) left Singapore & now operating in the South China Sea
- The Dwight D. Eisenhower (CVN 69) CSG is underway in the Red Sea, & will eventually be relieved by USS Harry S. Truman (CVN 75)
- USS George Washington (CVN 73) arrived in Argentina & will circumnavigate South America to link up with Reagan in CA before heading to the Indo-Pacific
- USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN 72) is underway conducting exercises off the West Coast in preparation for an upcoming Pacific deployment
- USS Carl Vinson (CVN 70) was in Los Angeles for Fleet Week, & will participate in the RIMPAC exercises held near Hawaii from 26 June to 2 August
POLITICAL FRONT –
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
Things appear not to be working out for democrats like they thought following the kangaroo court conviction of Trump.
In the first post verdict poll, Trump got a 6 point bump in favorability ratings (Daily Mail).
In a NPR Poll: 67% of voters say Trump’s guilty verdict makes no difference in their vote. 15% say they want to vote Trump even harder now.
The Trump campaign has raised a total of $52.8 million in the 24 hours following Trump’s conviction in New York.
The amount means the Trump campaign is raking in over $2 million an hour.
The Trump campaign also reported that over a third of the donations came from new donors.
OBSERVATION - How sustainable is this bounce? With something like 6 months to the election it is hard to say. But the likely longest lasting impact is the overall view that this was rigged and concern that the democrats have destroyed the justice system in their frenzy to ‘get Trump’. This is something Trump can play on, but don’t over play it. Other critical items such as the economy, illegals, crime, etc are still higher on the minds of Americans at this point. It has seemed that the bear has finally gotten tired of being poked by the regime and is rousing itself. Perhaps like the resurrection of the “silent majority”. But these numbers should be putting a damper on leftist celebrations soon, if they hold.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Biden announced a new ceasefire proposal to keep Hamas in power and vowed the American taxpayer will pay to rebuild the Gaza Strip.
Illegal Immigration –
The Biden administration is preparing to announce new executive action on the border crisis as early as Tuesday, two sources familiar with the matter told CNN.
The sources stressed that the timing of the order is variable.
Similar to the controversial Title 42 from the Trump era, the executive action reportedly centers on presidential authority in immigration law, known as section 212(f) of the Immigration and Nationality Act.
According to the Florida-based Messersmith Law Firm, which specializes in immigration law, section 212(f) “allows the President to prohibit entry into the US of any foreign national he deems would be detrimental to US interests.”
CNN reported that section 212(f) would be applied between ports of entry at the U.S.-Mexico border to stem the flow of illegal border crossings.
https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/biden-southern-border-executive-action/2024/05/31/id/1166989/
OBSERVATION - Purely a political move to try to stop the bleeding from an open border policy to show that now, after nearly 4 years, he’s getting tough on illegal immigration.
North/South Korea –
Video released of the recent massive NK missile test/demonstration has yielded some interesting info. More than half of the rockets start veering off course within seconds of launch - a fact that NK video editors missed in their release.
This would match Russian and potentially Iranian results from the same rockets.
Phillipines –
Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr has warned China not to cross a red line in the South China Sea, where a standoff between the countries continues to escalate.
If any Filipino died as a result of China’s wilful actions, he said on Friday, the Philippines would consider it as close to “an act of war” and respond accordingly.
Mr Marcos was speaking at a security forum in Singapore attended by defence chiefs from around the world, including the US’s Lloyd Austin.
Observers fear that any escalation could spark a conflict in the South China Sea between the Chinese and Americans. The US is bound by a treaty signed with the Philippines to come to the South East Asian nation’s defence, should it come under attack.
The US has said it will stand by its commitments to its allies in the region, and has sought to draw them closer including holding a summit with the Philippines and Japan last month.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c7223knz3ezo
OBSERVATION - China’s aggression in this region may start a shooting war before China has a chance to fully move on Taiwan.
Russia -
NUCLEAR THREATS –
“The leaders of China and India have warned Putin against crossing the line with nuclear weapons, U.S. officials said, and that has factored into the recent calculus of the Americans”, - NYT
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures highs in the 80’s and fair.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Busy night for Ukraine ADA - Ukrainian air defense shot down 35 missiles and 46 Shahed drones overnight. Areas targeted appear to be the Odesa, Zaporizhzhia and Kirovohrad regions.
The US laid some strict terms for use of munitions against Russia proper. ATACMS not allowed to strike Russian territory. Other systems Ok’d The Ukrainian Armed Forces appear to have likely launched their first attack on the Belgorod Region using at least 8 Rockets from a M142 HIMARS to the South of Vovchansk.
Very little word on ground action overnight. Indicates little change from previous activity.
Outlook —
Russia has tried to restart it deep campaign against Ukraine in the face of a now more weapons free status for Ukraine counterstrikes. These counter strikes are still very limited, but significant in that it allows Ukraine to hit key troop build ups, logistics centers and command posts once off limits.
Ukraine has also been systematically hammering Russian air defense assets in Crimea, recently taking out a 100 million dollar early warning system. This suggests that Ukraine may be looking to use F-16s against Russians in Crimea and are clearing the way for them in a manner similar to how they took the Black Sea Fleet out of the formula. One key feature remains and that is the Kersch Strait bridge. Permanently take that structure out and Crimea loses a lot of logistical support. Russia has been utilizing other supply routes/methods to minimize the use of the bridge, hence Ukraine’s recent targeting of port facilities and equipment in the vicinity of the straits. Ukraine will still have a very tough fight to even get to Crimea, thru the massive mine fields and fortifications. Their final objectives are yet to be seen.
More weapons free operations also means Ukraine has the ability to utilize long range ADA, such as Patriot systems - to target Russian bombers throwing glide bombs toward Kharkiv and other eastern regions. Ukraine has done this in the past, but with the arms shortages, pulled those assets back to defend more critical areas of the country.
Key item to watch for is Russian response to deeper, accurate and deadly attack by Ukraine into its rear areas in Russian territories. Russia has repeatedly raise the threat of nukes as well as directly attacking France, Britain and other NATO nations. Current assessment is that Russia will not carry out those threats.
Europe / NATO General –
NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg firmly rejected Russian President Vladimir Putin’s warnings about the escalation risks if Ukraine uses Western-supplied weapons for strikes inside Russian territory. Stoltenberg’s comments came during a NATO foreign ministers’ meeting in Prague.
“This is nothing new. It has been the case for a long time that every time NATO allies provide support to Ukraine, President Putin tries to threaten us to stop,” Stoltenberg stated. “Russia has escalated by invading another country.”
Stoltenberg emphasized Ukraine’s right to strike legitimate military targets inside Russia, particularly near the frontline. “Ukraine has the right to self-defense, and we have the right to help Ukraine uphold that right,” he asserted. “This does not make NATO allies a party to the conflict.”
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- biden puts forth a peace plan.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
***
The leaders of the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives have invited Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to address a joint meeting of Congress, House Speaker Mike Johnson announced on Friday, though the date of the speech has not been set.
***
Biden announced a new ceasefire proposal to keep Hamas in power and vowed the American taxpayer will pay to rebuild the Gaza Strip.
***
In response to biden’s so called ‘plan’ -
UK Secretary of State David Cameron called on Hamas to accept the deal so “we can see a stop in the fighting, the hostages released and returned to their families and a flood of humanitarian aid into Gaza.”
“As we’ve long argued, a stop in the fighting can be turned into a permanent peace if we are all prepared to take the right steps. Let’s seize this moment and bring this conflict to an end,” Cameron added in a statement on X.
The EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen also reacted to the proposed deal on X, calling the three step approach “balanced and realistic.”
“I wholeheartedly agree with POTUS Biden that the latest proposal is a significant opportunity to move towards an end to war and civilian suffering in Gaza,” von der Leyen said.
She added, “It now needs support from all parties.”
https://www.jpost.com/international/article-804552#google_vignette
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
IDF is conduction troop rotations in various parts of Gaza.
Action remains fierce in the Rafah areas.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
3 missiles launched from Lebanon fell near the town of Ma’yan Baruch in the Upper Galilee
Hezbollah fired a Burkan rocket at Israel on Saturday, which impacted and caused significant destruction to military buildings and infrastructure in the North, Israeli media reported. A Burkan rocket carries hundreds of kilograms of explosive material and a combat warhead capable of operating at a radius of 1.5-5 kilometers, Walla noted.
The IDF announced on Saturday morning that the Israeli air force conducted targeted strikes on Hezbollah’s terrorist infrastructure in the areas of Qana, Hmaileh, and Aadloun in southern Lebanon overnight. A Hezbollah observation post and two military structures were also struck in the areas of Tayr Harfa, Jibba, and Khaim.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Houthis claim they hit the USS Eisenhower with a combined missile strike. That claim was denied by US officials.
However, the attempt may have been serious enough to generate a counter strike by coalition forces-
Early on Friday Yemen’s Houthis announced what appears to be the biggest mass casualty attack by the Western coalition since Red Sea hostilities began in the wake of Oct.7.
The joint British-U.S. airstrikes happened Thursday, and killed at least 16 people and wounded 35 others, according to Houthis statement. “We confirm this brutal aggression against Yemen as punishment for its position in support of Gaza, in support of Israel to continue its crimes of genocide against the wounded, besieged and steadfast Gaza Strip,” Houthi spokesman Mohammed Abdulsalam said.
The strikes primarily focused on the port city of Hodeida. Pentagon confirmed that US F/A-18 fighter jets were involved in the operation over Yemen, having taken off from the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower aircraft carrier in the Red Sea.
Officials said additional warships also participated, which included attacks on “underground facilities, missile launchers, command and control sites, a Houthi vessel and other facilities.”
The UK Defense Ministry also revealed its involvement, with a statement saying Royal Air Force Typhoon FGR4s conducted strikes on Hodeida and locations south in Ghulayfiqah.
UK’s military said it targeted “buildings identified as housing drone ground control facilities and providing storage for very long-range drones, as well as surface-to-air weapons.”
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
France has banned Israeli defense companies from participating in Eurosatory, one of the world’s largest arms shows, over Israel’s ongoing war in Gaza.— Politico
——— FORECAST ————————-
Rafah continues to be the operational focus for the IDF. Anti-tunnel operations along the Philadelphia corridor will likely accelerate.
Recent operations have uncovered more Hamas militarization of UN facilities, schools and hospitals.
I expect Hamas to be attempting to exfiltrate as many forces out of Rafah north in to the rest of Gaza as possible to avoid destruction in detail. Israel has set up surveillance over central and northern Gaza to detect the reassembling of these forces, enabling quick strike actions to take them out.
Some assessments indicate that Hamas is running short of rockets and other weapons/munitions. I’m not convinced because Israel has only been able to destroy a portion of the underground storage Hamas has created and evidence that some Hamas elements are using undiscovered tunnels to ambush IDF elements.
It is expected the Gaza operations will continue for several more months, if not until the end of the year to locate and destroy the underground network.
Thanks Godzilla
“So we have not just a depression, but a stagflationary depression in which everything else is going to hell, except prices: they keep on rising.”
So easy even a Socialist Democrat could understand it! But they won’t and they’ll keep marching us off a cliff!