Economy- HIGH Threat - as of Dec 5, 2024
US wholesale inflation shot higher last month, an unwelcome sign that some prices could be heating up before they come down the pike to consumers.
The Producer Price Index, a measurement of average price changes seen by producers and manufacturers, rose 0.4% on a monthly basis and 3% for the 12 months ended in November, marking an acceleration from October, when prices increased 0.3% and 2.6%, respectively, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data released Thursday.
October’s monthly and annual rates were both revised higher from their initial estimates.
You hear that? Inflation is so high that they’re revising it upward from two months ago
[F]ood prices also surged last month by 3.1% — the category’s largest monthly spike since November 2022. The index for chicken eggs, which soared 54.6% from October was the biggest culprit and accounted for a quarter of the overall monthly jump in the PPI.
Eggs, of course, are in countless other products, meaning a spike in egg prices will likely generate a price hike in just about everything on the shelves.
https://notthebee.com/article/dont-forget-this-is-still-very-much-joe-bidens-economy
OBSERVATION - Noted agriculture costs a few days ago. No relief in sight.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics
International health authorities have been dispatched to the Democratic Republic of Congo to address a respiratory illness of unknown origin. Over the weekend, the World Health Organization (WHO) announced that a team has been sent to the region to discover the cause of the illness and enhance local healthcare efforts. Currently, Congolese health officials have reported 406 cases and 31 fatalities, with a significant impact on young children.
The illness, referred to as “Disease X” by the African Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, shares symptoms with the flu. These symptoms include body aches, fever, coughing, difficulty breathing, and anemia. Although most cases have emerged in the Kwango Province, Italian news source Il Tempo noted that a traveler from Congo was hospitalized upon developing symptoms abroad.
The underlying explanation might be an outbreak of a known deadly pathogen or multiple diseases, given Congo’s chronic struggle with epidemics due to inadequate healthcare access. The WHO statement indicates that diseases such as acute pneumonia, influenza, COVID-19, measles, and malaria are under consideration as potential sources, with malnutrition possibly exacerbating the situation. Malaria, commonly found in the area, could be a contributing factor
https://thenationalpulse.com/2024/12/09/scientists-are-investigating-something-called-disease-x-heres-what-we-know/#:~:text=Scientists are Investigating Something Called ‘Disease X’ – Here’s What We Know
OBSERVATION - Not ready to raise the alert status on this yet but it is a legitimate outbreak but may be limited by environmental factors like many other diseases in Africa.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Confirmed, Pelosi had hip replacement surgery. She is going to be out of the loop for some time.
North/South Korea –
Now impeached, Yoon will still remain in office, his powers will be suspended. His prime minister, Han Duck-soo, will take on the role of acting president and the powers that Yoon lost.
Russia -
Economic Impact –
2 vessels, Volgoneft-212 and Volgoneft-239, declared emergency and sinking in Kerch strait. 13 crew members on each, rescue operation is ongoing.
NOTE - Both vessels lost to high waves and not Ukrainian attack.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 20-30s and rain and snow throughout much of the period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
The Ukrainian Air Force reports on a Shahed drone attack by Russia overnight. Out of 108 Shahed drones launched, 56 were shot down by regular air defense and another 49 were suppressed by electronic warfare. Three more returned to Russia.
Russian losses per 15/12/24 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff.
+1280 men
+12 tanks
+32 AFVs
+26 artillery systems
+3 MLRS
+2 AD systems
Head of Chechnya Kadyrov confirmed attack at the base of Rosguard special operation forces in Grozny, says 2 of 3 drones were shot down, and no casualties. This is the second attack by Ukraine in as many days.
Ukraine Kursk Offensive-
In Kursk region Ukrainian forces have repelled 57 Russian army assaults, - General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports.
Confirmed reports that N Korean troops have been used in these attacks and unconfirmed reports are they engaged in on foot rushes towards Ukraine positions and suffered heavy losses.
Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -
At Kurakhivka axis clashes yesterday near Sontsivka, Stari Terny, Zorya, Kurakhove, Lysivka, Yelyzavetivka, Hannivka and Uspenivka.
These attacks are threatening to isolate a pocket of the Ukraine defense on the southern most line of the Pokrovsk front
Summary —
The tempo of Russian attacks appear to have decreased, but key advances in the Kurakhivka area threaten encirclement of Ukraine forces.
The confirmed used of N Korean troops in Kursk has not gone well for them. Unconfirmed Russian milbloggers report that the forces are even more poorly trained than Russia conscripts and have killed many of their own via friendly fire than Ukraine has (prior to sending into the fight in Kursk). The meat attack, on foot rush of the NK will quickly eliminate their numbers. Running on foot across an open, snow covered field is not conducive to a long life expectancy.
War innovations ebb and flow and Ukraine’s adjustment to Russia shahed drones are a case in point. Very few drones get thru any more.
Ukraine’s attack on Chechnya are interesting and of questionable strategic value.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- More airstrikes in Syria.
- Raid in Gaza takes out terrorist HQ
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-
IDF’s “Givati” infantry Brigade raided last night the Khalil al-Alda terrorist headquarters in Beit Hanoun, which was previously served as a school.
60 terrorists were killed and 30 more arrested.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
No serious action, just a few demolition projects by Israel to eliminate Hezbollah infrastructure in controlled areas of S Lebanon.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
See Syria on airstrikes to prohibit arms/munitions from being used against Israel.
——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-
Ongoing Security force operations.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Still hot rumors of an impending Israeli action against Iran to take advantage of the chaos from the rebel overthrow of Assad and the resulting weak position of Iran. The fall of Hezbollah and Syria has significantly reduced the threat of a regional war against Israel, though the threats to countries hostile toward Iran in the Persian Gulf are high - targeting their oil infrastructure. These Gulf nations do not have the ADA systems Israel does, so even the most inefficient missile attack by Iran could inflict sever damage.
On the other side of the coin, such an attack on global oil will no doubt bring massive strikes by the US once Trump is in office.
Israel continuation of hitting military targets/facilities in Syria should be winding down, except that rebels keep finding arms stashes and underground sites untouched. But for all practical purposes, Israel is close to being done and will focus on consolidating its positions in the buffer zone. To do more will risk turning the rebels directly against them at a time where they are saying we really don’t want a fight with Israel. Remember - these rebels are based in AQ and ISIS doctrine and are likely just speaking such until they can consolidate power and begin shifting to an anti-Israeli mode.
In Gaza, Hamas and affiliated terror groups keep making it easy for Israel to take them out, congregating in former ‘safe’ zones where they can be quickly isolated and annihilated.
Hezbollah in Lebanon has essentially been suppressed with little or no reports of ceasefire violations against Israel nor preemptive action by Israel. Hezbollah leadership has openly confirmed that their lines of supply from Iran have been cut off and are hoping that the rebels will give them a mulligan for all the atrocities they committed against them before the overthrow so that the arms supply line can be reestablished. Don’t see that happening any time soon.
Syria -
Israeli media: The Air Force destroyed warehouses of modern missiles and rocket launchers near the town of Qastal in the Qalamoun region in the Damascus countryside. Over 60 targets in total.
Turkey –
Just hours after meeting with Secretary of State Antony Blinken and discussing the fight against the Islamic State in Syria, Turkey’s foreign minister sent a shocking message to Washington by saying his country’s goal is to eliminate the main fighting force of the Syrian Kurds, which defeated ISIS in tandem with the U.S.
According to Turkish media, Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said in a live broadcast on NTV that “the elimination of YPG is [Turkey’s] strategic goal.” He also noted the country’s Kurds must be protected.
The U.S. has a long-standing military alliance with the Syrian Kurdish military organization, The People’s Defense Units (YPG), in Syria. The YPG is part of a broader organization known as the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and played a key role in dismantling the Islamic State in Syria.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has seized on the collapse of Syrian dictator Bashar Assad’s rule to gobble up territory controlled by the pro-American Syrian Kurds, risking hard-won gains against the Islamist State terrorist movement.
Erdoğan’s campaign to purge the SDF in northern Syria has created a dangerous security situation in the fight against the Islamic State (ISIS), according to Gen. Mazloum Abdi, the SDF’s commander in chief.
OBSERVATION - Erdoğan displays his territory grab and his standard hate the Kurds message. He knows Blinken is a loser. What will happen when Trump is back in charge? Erdogan may change his tune and tactics.
***
Turkey has also offered to begin training the new rebel regime’s army which also implies providing material support given so much has been recently destroyed by Israeli airstrikes.
Misc of Note –
Runways at a Hudson Valley airport were brought to a halt after drone activity disrupted operations for approximately an hour, prompting New York Gov. Kathy Hochul to escalate calls for immediate federal intervention.
Hochul said the incident happened in Orange County on Friday, Dec. 13, at Stewart International Airport in New Windsor.
OBSERVATION - Many of the ‘drone’ videos flooding social media are clearly common aircraft. Many carry marker and other strobes that are mandated on civilian aircraft.
That said, there are many reports of more legitimate sightings. In one case, the activity was significant enough to close the NY airport. Also note, “daily voice” is not the only outlet with the story, NBC, NY Post and many others are carrying it.
Question that is concerning me now. This activity has essentially exploded following the election. Are hostile agents trying to take advantage of the lame duck president with an addled mind to initiate such actions in advance of something worse?
The Ukraine war has resulted in an explosion (no pun intended) of combat application of drones. Even relatives small drones have been modified to carry a big enough explosive to take out tanks. These reported drones are much bigger and have traversed sensitive US military and other governmental facilities with ease. Langley AFB is one such area where a drone loaded with bombs could wreak havoc on important Air Force jets in either an asymmetrical or terror attack. And similar attacks could be conducted just about anywhere in there country or world for that matter - see drone outbreaks in Europe.
Lack of govt effort to down these confirmed drones causes me to reflect back to the Chinese balloon that drifted over my home a couple years ago - without interference until it was out over the Atlantic. It is almost as if the govt is allowing these things to do what ever they are up to, just like they let China operate the balloon uninhibited.
Filter out the actual civilian aircraft misidentification, yahoos flying this own drones having fun with the flap and just fake reporting, what we have left is a serious national concern that shouldn’t be laughed or waved off until we get better evidence.
Thanks, Godzilla.
She should take the hint and retire now.
Economy- HIGH Threat - as of Dec 5, 2024...You hear that? Inflation is so high that they’re revising it upward from two months ago
Good thing that Social Security recipients will receive an average inflationary raise of $20 - $30 per month, after their $10 increase in premium, of course. Federal government, always looking out for the average Joe. (Sarcasm off).
Remember...you have no choice to opt out of SS, it's a forced taking. Plan ahead so SS is NOT your only retirement income (it was never intended to be). I've known a few elderly folks that SS was there only income, it was not a good situation.
“OBSERVATION - Noted agriculture costs a few days ago. No relief in sight.”
FWIW, we just ordered new tracks for our Skid Steer. If and when Tariffs are put in place again, anything we need for the farm is going to go through the roof. We also got chickens this spring - egg prices are currently a thing of the past as long as the girls stay happy and healthy and I can refresh the flock every other year or as needed.
I have been shopping around for the best prices on milk and butter too, and stocking up and freezing all that I am allowed to buy.
We are also stocked up on building supplies we need for near-future projects (front porch repair, remodel and painting) as well as a new kitchen sink and tin ceiling panels for the kitchen. Updated Kitchen lighting is next, so I have to make some decisions pretty quickly!
We also pulled together some cash this week to pay off the remaining 112 acres of crop land that we rent out. That rent pays our taxes and more each year on the whole farm. Then, we will be 100% Debt Free! We owe nothing on trucks - they’ve been paid off for ages.
We’re not doing this just because President Trump was elected; we are doing it because President Trump WAS elected and Socialist Democrats will still be trying to sabotage anything he wants to do, resulting in more economic PAIN for ‘We The People’ in the short term.
Moving into a fresh week. Some areas seem quiet, others suggest a storm is about to break out.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Nov 12, 2024
BLM riots against the Penney verdict have fizzled out. There are still some rallies scheduled in NYC but they are not gaining any traction.
Scattered pro-hamas / pro-islam disruptions of Christmas celebrations.
***
The folks at Forward Observer are reporting that a recent revolutionary anarchist blog post argued that protests and direct action demonstrations against fascists and corporations no longer work, and that anarchist should return to assassinating their enemies.
The post argues that continued assassinations of political enemies would send a message to the capitalist class that prominent members are not “untouchable.” The post described the current situation as a “precipice,” as anarchist readers are asked to consider their willingness to commit acts of armed violence if those acts lead to desired change.
OBSERVATION - Cross reference to Terrorism as well. Political assassinations are old school for these radical leftists. The recent murder of the Healthcare CEO may be driving some of the thought combined with the apparent ineffectiveness of trying to put together mass rallies/riots.
Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of Oct 20, 2024
Hanukkah: Dec 26 - Jan 1
***
See Misc of Note below on potential terror attack surrounding drone flap.
Economy- HIGH Threat - as of Dec 5, 2024
It’s not shaping up to be a very merry holiday season for some major retailers this year.
U.S. retailers have announced more than 7,100 store closures through the end of November 2024, a 69% jump from the same time last year, according to recent data from research firm CoreSight. That comes as 45 retailers have filed for bankruptcy protection so far this year, compared with 25 retail bankruptcies for all of 2023, the report found.
The surge in store closures comes at a time when consumer spending appears strong, helping to lift the nation’s economic growth. Yet cracks are emerging, with some retailers reporting that inflation-weary shoppers are cutting back or becoming more choosy in searching for sales and deals.
OBSERVATION - The article repeats a common theme - “consumer spending appears strong” - a claim used over the past year to justify claims that bidenomics was ‘working’. Reality is documented in the closures and bankruptcies, showing that spending isn’t ‘strong’. Also repeated is the claim of ‘lifting the nation’s economic growth’. Even the govt figures don’t show that. GDP continues to be anemic and some insist that any ‘growth’ has been due to govt spending, not general consumers.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The U.S. faces a severe shortage of ammunition and critical minerals like antimony, essential for modern warfare, exposing vulnerabilities in its defense industrial base.
The U.S. lacks domestic antimony production, relying entirely on foreign suppliers, with China controlling most of the global supply. This dependency has led to supply cuts and price surges, endangering military readiness.
U.S. support for Ukraine has depleted its own ammunition stocks, with current production (30,000 shells/month) falling far short of the 100,000 shells needed by 2025.
Companies like Military Metals Corp. are acquiring antimony projects to address shortages, but the Biden administration’s efforts to secure domestic sources of critical minerals have been slow and insufficient.
The U.S. must invest in domestic mining, streamline regulations, and foster partnerships to secure critical minerals and ensure future military readiness, avoiding over-reliance on adversarial nations.
https://www.naturalnews.com/2024-12-15-ammo-crisis-national-security-wake-up-call.html
OBSERVATION - Some consider this to be a deliberate weakening of the US military by the left / biden so that the US cannot respond to any military aggressiveness by China, Russia or Iran. Short falls in munitions production not only affects artillery, but rockets/missiles, other bombs, fighter jets, naval vessels, etc.
POLITICAL FRONT –
(FO) The House could release a continuing resolution (CR) today that will extend government funding until March 2025, ahead of the 20 December deadline to prevent a government shutdown. Negotiations over agriculture funding over the weekend held up the planned release of the bill.
Interesting potential developments in the hunter pardon. Serious questions over whether the pardons are restricted to existing charges and convictions and not to those that are not. Thus the plethora of crimes hunter are believed to have committed are still on the table.
OBSERVATION - All indicators apart from from blustering and chest beating on both sides, the CR will pass.
China –
China’s recent exercises in the seas around Taiwan have reportedly caught Taiwan off guard as to their size and speed of development.
North/South Korea –
NK forces supporting Russia’s attacks in the Ukraine are not faring well. See Ukraine below.
Russia -
NUCLEAR THREATS –
(FO) Russian President Vladimir Putin warned this morning that U.S. plans to deploy missiles to Europe have pushed him to his “red lines,” adding that he may lift restrictions on Russian ballistic missile deployment in response.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 20-30s and rain and snow throughout much of the period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukraine’s Air Force reported on a Shahed drone attack overnight. Out of 49 launched, 27 were shot down by regular air defense and 19 were suppressed by electronic warfare. Three more UAVs were still active in Ukrainian airspace.
Russian losses per 16/12/24 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff.
+1070 men
+12 tanks
+29 AFVs
+23 artillery systems
Reports that Ukraine drones destroyed a big Russian ammo depot in occupied Donetsk, Suspilne reports. The site housed thousands of rounds for BMPs, tanks, anti-tank missiles, mines, grenades, and millions of bullets. Explosions and fire raged all night. A nearby fuel depot was also obliterated.
https://x.com/noelreports/status/1868567942314545546?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA
Ukraine Kursk Offensive-
Special Operation Forces of Armed forces of Ukraine dismissed reports of breakthrough at the state border in Sumy region on 10th December as Russian propaganda and published a video showing repelling an attack in the area.
NOTE - This was a battalion sized assault. Reportedly the Russian commander in the region was replace and this is the first attack showing any kind of ability to organize an attack at a higher level. From the Ukraine videos, the Russian column was stuck on a road and was easily struck.
***
Rumint. Confused North Korean troops opened friendly fire on Kadyrov’s Chechen troops, killing 8 in the Kursk region.
North Korean army units are being replenished after losses in Russia’s Kursk region. On Dec 14–15, near Plekhovo, Vorozhba, and Martinovka, DPRK units suffered heavy losses—at least 30 soldiers killed or wounded. Near Kurilovka, at least three North Korean troops went missing.
Assault groups are now being reinforced with fresh personnel, including from the DPRK’s 94th Special Forces Brigade, to continue offensive operations.
https://x.com/noelreports/status/1868568758974910793?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA
Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -
Russians close to closing off Ukraine salient near Kurakhivka.
Summary —
Russian drone attacks have dropped down to their near normal levels. Russian casualties are down to summer 24 levels for the third day in a row, and size of attacks are down, though still plentiful.
The saga of the NK forces in the Kursk region are coming out and they are as bad as many have anticipated. In addition to friendly fire losses, observers are noting that they are poorly armed - mostly korean war vintage weapons. They are also trying to duplicate the human wave attacks that China made famous in the Korean war - except they do not have the numbers. The poor performance so far will likely hinder future deployments from NK, even though Russia is in desperate need of forces to advance the offensive as far as possible before any cease fire.
Even with the lowered tempo of Russian attack, Ukraine is still being forced back in some sectors.
Keeping an eye on the sector near Sumy. The attempted Russian assault was at battalion level strength. First time in a while such a sizable force has been mustered to the front. However, the poor training of the tankers and APCs showed that they are still unable to maneuver to exploit any firepower advantage and they continue the almost self destructing method of charging down a road in a column where they can be picked off and destroyed.
Europe / NATO General –
EU Foreign ministers just greenlighted 3 sanctions packages: - the 15th sanctions package on Russia for undermining territorial integrity of Ukraine, including sanctions on China and North Korea. More listings of Belarusian individuals and entities. 1st ever listings for Russian hybrid activities, including Tina Kandelaki and Bordachev of Valdai club
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- More airstrikes in Syria.
- Rumors that a hostage deal may be soon
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Israel OKs annexation of portions of the Golan Heights it has occupied since the Yon Kippur war.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-
A Gaza hostage-ceasefire is closer than it has ever been before, a senior Hamas official told the Saudi news outlet Asharq on Monday.
“We are closer than ever to reaching a prisoner exchange deal and a ceasefire, provided that Netanyahu does not obstruct the agreement,” the official reportedly said. (JPost)
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem said in a the terror group lost its supply route in Syria with the fall of the Assad regime. During the Assad regime, weapons and other military supplies were brought through Syria into Lebanon, but when Syrian rebels seized the route, the supply chain was cut off. “We also hope that the new ruling party will view Israel as an enemy and refrain from normalizing relations with it. These are the key factors that will shape the nature of the relationship between us and Syria.”
***
Druze-Lebanese politician Wiam Wahhab, an ally of Hezbollah, made a surprising statement last night: “The nation doesn’t want war. If you ask me, let’s move toward peace with Israel. I urge the Shiites to normalize relations and make peace with Israel so we can all live in peace. The resistance axis ended with the assassinations of Soleimani and Nasrallah.”
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
See Syria below on IAF airstrikes
***
IDF ground forces pushed further north in the Hermon Mtn Range area towards Damascus and expanded forces in the former 1974 buffer zone.
——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-
The Palestinian Authority is conducting operations in Jenin targeting rival factions like Hamas related elements. This is creating a lot of discontent by some of the locals who see Hamas as a better leader than the PA.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Reports of U.S-Coalition airstrikes within the last hour, on Houthi targets in the Hajjah Governorate of Northwestern Yemen.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister: We warn Israel against annexing the Golan Heights, this is unacceptable
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
IMHO, Syrian rebels keep finding weapons/munition stockpiles that Israel seems to have missed, allowing them to target for destruction. Such is what happened overnight. Video’s of the Tartus strike are stunning in the massive size of secondary explosions.
Uncertain just how much more the IDF will be expanding in Syrian terrain, particularly in the Hermon Range close to Damascus. Sr IDF commanders having a lot of conferences with the local chiefs of towns in the occupied buffer zone to assure them of their safety from Israeli actions - as long as they don’t attack the IDF.
More and more, end game is approaching for both Hamas and Hezbollah. The harsh reality is that if they continue to resist, they will totally be eliminated. Conditions for Hezbollah in Lebanon may be becoming more hostile as local leaders turn on them politically. As Ive said time and again, the arab/moslem world gauges their support based on strength or the perception thereof. Hezbollah is now viewed as weak, and even their leadership admits that help from Iran is not coming any time soon. They are at the point where they could be pushed out of essential control of Lebanon.
Iran is even more seen as being weak following the rebel victory in Syria. This could make them especially dangerous in regards to pushing the development of a nuclear weapon. Threats of Israel and the US coming for their facilities is large on their radar and they may view the nuke as their last line of defense against the west. They may do something irrational with a weapon in order to regain the perception of strength and attempt to deter further perceived aggression against it. See Miscellaneous of Note below on those thoughts.
Iran –
Iranian leadership continues to talk nice to the new rulers of Syria.
Syria -
Syrian rebel leader Abu Mohammad al-Julani says new Syrian regime will operate under Sharia Law, morality police will be supervised by clerics and mullahs.
OBSERVATION - Any surprise here? The AQ/ISIS fundamentalist islam underpinnings coming to the forefront.
***
An absolutely monstrous explosion hit Northwestern Syria near Tartus from an Israeli airstrike on a munitions depot. This explosion was so large that it registered as 3.0 earthquake on seismic sensors in the area.
The target of the Israeli strike near Tartus was reported to have been the base of the 23rd Air Defense Brigade as well as surface-to-surface missile warehouses, which is likely what caused several of the large explosions.
Local sources in rural Tartous report sgnificant material damage reported in the villages of Bmalkeh, Al-Bakriyeh, Marseheen, Al-Joubeh, Badriyeh, Al-Wasitat, Beit Al-Khatib, and Hababeh in the countryside of Tartous provinc.
NASA FIRMS indicates significant thermal anomalies detected following Israeli army strikes at a munitions storage site, formerly belonging to the Assad regime
Two large explosions were heard in the city of Deir Ezzor, resulting from an Israeli air raid on the Deir Ezzor military airport.
Additional IAF targets overnight consisted of 12 radar sites, and an air defense system
***
US State Department: US citizens must leave Syria
***
U.S. soldiers arrived in Kobane in northern Syria to take possession of the military bases abandoned by the Russian Army a few days ago.
Misc of Note –
BOTTOM LINE UP FRONT - There is enough ‘smoke’ associated with the current drone craziness that there maybe fire of some sort buried therein. Otherwise, what are we being distracted from.
Over the weekend, the noise level for the latest conspiracy concerning the drone epidemic was boiled down to this - drones being sighted around the United States in recent weeks may be searching for a nuclear weapon that has been smuggled into the country.
This is not the first time conspiracy alerts have been raised over concerns of a smuggled nuke. This was big topic back when TM was started after 9/11. This time, some bogus and some legitimate reasons are in play. First the bogus -
Some of the conspiracists are trying to claim that a hostile foreign nation or terror group has gotten their hands on one of the ‘70s suitcase nukes or one of the Ukrainian nukes ‘lost’ when they removed them following the breakup of the Soviet Union. FRs Matt Bracken put the kibosh to a key aspect of this by pointing out that these nukes require a high amount of maintenance as components get damaged from the high radiation over time. A second factor is that the nuclear material (plutonium or uranium) looses its effective purity and soon no longer is effective in initiating a fission reaction when activated.
But that doesn’t rule these old nukes out. The second theory in play is that there are so called ‘dirty’ bombs set to go off out there. The concept is designed to panic the uniformed populace. A dirty bomb is nothing more than a conventional bomb with radioactive material included. Upon the explosion of the bomb, radioactive material is scattered over a limited area, causing it to be closed off until decon’d. Any deaths would be associated with the initial explosion. The radioactivity would be useful in denying access to critical areas or rescue of individuals (think of the Waco truck bomb with radioactive scattered over several square blocks).
This next brings us to the worst case scenario - a real live nuke. The world has a few demonstrated nuclear nations and a number of wannabes. The highest threat on this strategic scale are Russia and China. The next question is which is more willing to devise an asymmetrical nuclear attack like this? Hands down I think the culprit would be China - it has the most to gain. But such an attack would normally trigger nuclear war, if traced back to them, so China would have to be ready to be moving into actions against Taiwan and other western Pacific territories at the same time this nuke is ignited. Don’t see that coming together yet.
The second biggest global concern would be the acquisition of such a device by Iran. They have been beating the drum about getting one for nearly a decade now and technologically has the capability. The severe losses to Israel and their open weakness to having their families struck combined with rumblings of a US strike under Trump may have trigger an all out effort to get the bomb. “Experts” have said Iran has the potential to be nuclear in a little as weeks. What other factors could be present to accelerate the program
1 Iran has for years had representatives in N Korea working with their scientists on the NK bomb
2 Recent agreements with Russia to supply war materials in its fight against Ukraine could include gaining technology for their bomb as well as out right technical help.
Iran needs to have two things happen and there is no evidence that they’ve been successful. First the construction and testing of a triggering device and second actual successful detonation. Modern computers could bridge the gap with sufficient data from a trigger device test - or application of say a Russian or N Korean trigger. This would leave just the actual test which Iran could risk it and use an attack on the US as its “test”.
What about the scenario? The volume of containerized shipping could facilitate the smuggling of a device plausible. Even some well placed money in inspectors hands could further the efforts. The it is just a matter of moving the container to the desired location and linking up with technicians for final adjustments and setting the timer. We have plenty of potential Iranian agents here due to the open border of the past 4 years.
A New York / New Jersey target would be greatly symbolic just like the Twin Towers were on 9/11. A population concentration that would result in high casualties and prolonged issues due to fallout. Proximity to shipping ports also a point from above.
If the heart and core of the current drone flap is a search for a nuclear device of some sort, those efforts are now very buried by the tsunami of copycat drones, bogus / fake reports and the like. Until one of these drones are brought down and analyzed, this is much speculation.
One last item under this theory, it could account for clearly standard aircraft flying unusual patterns and locations. Drones are still relatively new and much that has been known about the nation’s nuclear detection efforts have been based on standard, manned airframes.
Tons of speculation, not enough to connect any dots but something to think about.