Countdown going big - 8 days out from election day.
Globalism / Great Reset –
The Climate Change Committee said in an ideal scenario, meat and dairy consumption should halve by 2050 and products be substituted with plant-based options.
The proposals are part of new net zero targets that have been recommended to Ed Miliband, the Energy Secretary.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2024/10/27/cut-meat-and-dairy-consumption-by-50-orders-ccc/
OBSERVATION - Though this is Britain, the same goals are being sought by elements here in the US as well. Britain just shows us what can happen in the next few years should govt leadership remain the same.
***
The World Health Organization is working to finalize the “Pandemic Agreement” by November 11, 2024 in the hopes of adopting it at a special session of the World Health Assembly in December.
OBSERVATION - This effort is trying to fly under the radar after failing to produce the agreement earlier this year. With most of the world’s attention fixed on Ukraine, Israel and the US election, its efforts are proceeding. There may be more urgency to complete this ‘agreement’ prior to Trump coming into office.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Oct 20, 2024
Considerable discussions continue concerning the September 27 DOD Directive 5240.1, which establishes the legal framework for the US military to conduct spying operations and use lethal force against US citizens in cooperation with local governments and law enforcement. The left is trying to down play the allowance for lethal actions while generally acknowledging the spying provisions. Another argument is that these things have always been written like this. Key item here is that the wording has enough wiggle room to allow lethal actions. The left has time and again exploited such language to push their goals forward. Overall, it requires vigilance and the removal of the language.
***
Democrats / leftists cranking up the Nazi hysteria to unbelievable levels following the massive Trump rally at MSG. MSNBC prominently equated the rally to a 1935 Nazi rally in the same location. “X” was flooded by hysterical leftists / harris supporters screaming about the Nazi’s coming.
What this is indicating to me is that the democrats are trying to energize and activate the more violent elements in their coalition and prepare them to act out in violence should Trump win. The whole “nazi” motif has worn thin lately from over use and poor application, thus the increased volume of the bleat.
IN RELATED - Walz traveled to Duke University in Durham, North Carolina on Thursday There he told students trump was going to round them all up.
The total outbreak of unreasonable fear mongering is also directed at preparing democrats for a loss and rally elements for violent challenges to the trump victory.
Folks, the crescendo of the cries is very concerning - trump wins, many will go into melt down mode and Floyd magnitude riots could break out.
On the republican side, there is a growing appearance that trump supporters will not back down to these riots should trump win or have the election stolen. There is a growing level of militancy of its own that I’ve seen developing that could breakout into true CW2 precursors of a hot conflict. As I’ve noted in the past, the current regime and the swamp could be pushing this scenario in order to justify a martial law scenario and an over turning of election results in that fashion.
Right now, the water seems calm, but a massive storm may be brewing just beyond the horizon.
Economy- HIGH Threat - as of AUG 5, 2024
U.S. mortgage rates increased for a fourth straight week this week, suggesting the housing market could remain on the back foot for some time even as the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates.
The average rate on the popular 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose to 6.54% from 6.44% last week, mortgage finance agency Freddie Mac said on Thursday. It averaged 7.79% during the same period a year ago.
Mortgage rates initially fell in September, dropping to more than a 1-1/2-year low by the end of the month as the Fed began lowering rates.
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/us-30-fixed-rate-mortgage-163123290.html
OBSERVATION - Article claims the ‘strength’ of the economy is what drove these rates higher - very doubtful of that reason.
***
Lines at food banks are growing longer in key swing states, including Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, according to NBC News.
“We have never seen this level of need in the 43 years we have been serving this community. It is significantly higher than during COVID and has pressed us beyond our capacity,” Ken Estelle, president of Feeding America West Michigan, told the news outlet.
“We’ve just seen this drumbeat increase every month of more people and more people.”
https://www.newsmax.com/us/swingstates-foodbanks-election/2024/10/26/id/1185545/
OBSERVATION - This is not evidence of a “strong” economy (see interest rates comment above).
***
(FO) According to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) data, Mississippi River shipping rates are 55% higher this year than the five-year average due to a third straight year of low water levels. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, 83% of land in the Midwest is abnormally dry and 53% is currently in drought. Army Corps of Engineers Watershed Division deputy chief Drew Smith said the recent trend of dryness was preceded by a wet period that did not end until 2020.
OBSERVATION - Continued upward pressures on prices for the next 6 months or so.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Merchan sentencing of trump - Nov 25th
**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****
***
Color me skeptical, but don’t believe at face value news that harris’ campaign is in disarray and coming apart at the edges. Keep fighting.
***
Worst . . . Nazi . . . . Rally . . . . . EVER
See CW2 above - harris / leftist rantings reaching unbelievable levels suggesting a degree of desperation in the camp.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Reports that harris has prohibited biden from campaigning for her.
North/South Korea –
After consultations with South Korean intelligence officials, NATO chief Rutte offers alliance confirmation that North Korean troops are in Russia, specifically in the Kursk region, helping Moscow against Ukraine
Russia -
*****
The Russian site, called Sergiev Posad-6, had been quiet for decades, but it had a notorious Cold War past: It had once been a major research center for biological weapons, with a history of experiments with the viruses that cause smallpox, Ebola and hemorrhagic fevers.
Satellite imagery over the next two years — collected by Google Earth and commercial imaging firms Maxar and Planet Labs — shows construction vehicles renovating the old Soviet-era laboratory and breaking ground on 10 new buildings, totaling more than 250,000 square feet, with several of them bearing hallmarks of biological labs designed to handle extremely dangerous pathogens.
There has been no sign such weapons have been used in the Ukraine conflict, but the construction of new labs at Sergiev Posad-6 is being closely watched by U.S. intelligence agencies and bioweapons experts amid worries about Moscow’s intentions as the conflict grinds through its third year.
The images showed multiple signatures that, when combined, indicate a high-containment biological facility: dozens of rooftop air handling units, layouts consistent with partitioned labs, underground infrastructure, heightened security features and what appears to be a power plant.
OBSERVATION - Russia indicates its mission is to strengthen the country’s defenses against bioterrorism as well as future pandemics. However, such facilities can quickly switch over to offensive developments very quickly and easily.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 40-50s with scattered showers in the forecast.
RUMINT –
North Korean troops are approaching Russia-Ukraine frontlines, though reports suggest they’re not Kim Jong-un’s elite forces, WSJ claims. Intelligence shows many soldiers are young, likely malnourished and inexperienced and trained for mountainous terrain rather than Ukraine’s plains.
Estimates indicate around 3,000 North Korean soldiers have arrived in Russia this month, with some seen near Kursk. Former officials suggest Kim may be testing the waters with this deployment, potentially paving the way for more experienced troops if Russia needs reinforcements.
wsj.com
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 66 of 100 Russian strike drones launched overnight. Parts of two Ukrainian regions were without power after Russian drone strikes damaged local infrastructure, energy officials said Monday.
National grid operator Ukrenergo said it was forced to implement emergency cuts in parts of the northeastern Sumy and central Poltava regions following overnight attacks by Russian forces.
Ballistic missiles were also reported to have been launched by Russia.
Russian Telegram channels report an Ukrainian incursion attempt at Manev village of Bryansk region.
Crimean front —
Around 30 explosions were heard overnight in occupied Crimea, according to local residents. Approximately 20 blasts occurred in Dzhankoy district, with another 8 in Simferopol and Krasnohvardiiske.
Russian Territory –
Local authorities in Voronezh region claim 10 drones were shot down or intercepted over the region, but debris of one caused fire at the industrial enterprise (ethanol plant)
Partisan Resistance ——
Reportedly railway bridge was blown up in Berdyansk yesterday
Outlook —
Nothing really jumping out - still massive pressure in the Donbas, and reported Russian casualties continue to be at a rate nearly 40% higher than earlier this summer. Tank and armor losses have increased as well, reflecting the efforts by Russia to gain as much as they can before the winter mud season hits.
The West is still monitoring and evaluating the introduction of N Korean forces into the Ukraine theater. Still the most likely deployment zone is the Kursk sector, avoiding potential greater outcry if deployed into disputed Ukraine territory.
Europe / NATO General –
GEORGIA -
Georgian President Zurabishvili rejects parliamentary election results, calling them “Russian elections” and declaring the current government illegitimate. An opposition rally is set for tomorrow at 7 PM.
- Georgian President has called on citizens to take to the streets in protest, refuses to recognize official election results — Politico
OBSERVATION - Increasing possibility of near civil war conditions developing.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Some growing concerns of a soon Iranian attack
- IDF makes gains in S Lebanon.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Continued Post Strike Review for Operation “Days of Repentance”
Bottom line up front - It is apparent that even though the strike was less extensive than anticipated, Israel didn’t waste any ammo on random targets, but surgically (most applicable term I can think of) hit key components of Iran’s missile defense, and modern ADA systems defending critical sites. The this has reportedly caused considerable concern to rise among Iranian leaders.
3D Radar Site taken out -
Israeli army targeted a radar installation in the hills about 12km southwest of Ilam last Friday night . New satellite images from the Ilam radar site to the southwest show that the 3D radar, which is very essential for early warning and has the ability to detect up to 400 kilometers deep, was destroyed in the Israeli attack.
Ballistic Missile Program Damaged Further - -
A key facility at Iran’s secret missile testing base near Shahrud was destroyed in this strike. Sharoud missile complex is ~800 km from the Iraqi border northeast of Tehran close to the Iranian border with Turkmenistan.
Satellite Images show the destruction of the Site’s main missile casting building. The function of the casting building is where the solid fuel is placed into the rocket bodies and “casted” into place. Shahroud was both involved in the mass production of missile boosters (Kheybarshekan and Fattah 1) as well as in the IRGC’s ICBM hedging effort. Destruction of the central casting building should impede these programs substantially.
IAF Aircraft Now Reported to have Penetrated Into Iranian Airspace - -
Israeli Officials have told CNN, several of the over 100 Aircraft of the Israeli Air Force that participated in the Mission, entered Iranian airspace to conducted deep strikes against targets.
No word on which sites the aircraft targeted or how deeply into Iran they penetrated.
ADA Radars Affected - -
Unconfirmed Iranian reports that about 5 minutes prior to IAF strikes, Iranian radars ceased to “function”. Could represent advanced jamming by the IAF.
****************
In a highly irregular move, the government meeting planned for this morning was moved to a secret location on short notice, Israeli media reported.
Journalists speculated that the move might be connected to warnings of Iran trying to harm ministers or symbols of state after the Israeli strikes in Iran.
The meeting will not be held in its regular locations, like the Knesset in Jerusalem or the IDF headquarters in Tel Aviv. Only the ministers will be allowed to participate, without their advisers being present.
***
CNN this morning that the preliminary assessment in Israel based on intelligence and public statements is that Iran’s regime will respond to the Israeli strike on Saturday
If Iran retaliates on Saturday’s attack, Israel is expected to attack not only nuclear and energy sites, but also the regime’s top government sites, including the supreme leader.
Source: Maariv
***
U.S. President Biden’s Envoy to the Middle East, Amos Hochstein has reportedly arrived in Tel Aviv, with him set to meet today with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-
Large numbers of Hamas and affiliated terrorists continue to surrender in N Gaza.
A report on the Saudi Al-Arabiya channel: Hamas refuses any proposal for a cease-fire without Israel’s withdrawal from Gaza, including Netzarim and Philadelphi corridors.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Some 90 rockets were launched by Hezbollah from Lebanon at northern Israel today, according to an Israeli army tally
***
Ground action in S Lebanon has picked up significantly. Significant IDF advances have been reported in the areas of Rmaich, Bint Jbeil, Meiss Ej Jabal, Rabb Et Talatine, and Naqura.
Below is a Lebanon map that depict how far IDF has penetrated into the region
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ga5ZNWXXUAAzWud?format=jpg&name=small
***
After over a year of launching aerial attacks against northern Israel, Hezbollah has reportedly begun to crack as the Iran-backed terror group has experienced a wave of desertions, sources told the Arabic independent online newspaper Elaph in a report published Sunday.
As a result of combatants abandoning their posts, Hezbollah is now reportedly struggling to communicate with its men on the ground. There are also fears that the defections, now mainly a phenomenon in southern Lebanon, will spread to terrorists throughout the country, the source claimed.
The confrontations on the southern border and escape by Hezbollah combatants have reportedly left the group struggling to recruit new terrorists to fuel its fight against Israel.
https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-826395
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Iraq has filed an official complaint with the UN Security Council regarding Israel’s use of Iraqi airspace to strike Iranian targets last Saturday. The Iraqi government spokesperson stated that the complaint condemns Israel’s “flagrant violation” of Iraq’s airspace and sovereignty.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Rumblings across the news and the OSINT realm is the potential for an Iranian response as early as this weekend. Here are some thoughts I gleaned from the intewebs and X
According to Kann News; U.S. Officials believe that Iran maintains its ability to retaliate with the same force used during its October 1st attack against Israel, but that the scale and nature of their retaliation against Israel will likely be limited by Friday night’s strikes, which caused immense damage to Iran’s capacity to produce long-range ballistic missiles.
According to reports, Iran holds over 2,000 long-range ballistic missiles. The existing arsenal was not damaged—only the capability to produce new missiles (as reported, planetary mixers, etc.). This means that Iran will now operate on a limited munitions economy, as its current missile stockpile will not be able to grow in the near future (in the coming months or years).
Iran has these additional elements to factor in. This time, the Americans are expected to play a more significant role in defense and interception, thanks to the THAAD battery stationed in Israel and three ships equipped with AEGIS defense systems capable of intercepting ballistic missiles, which were also involved in intercepting the attack in early October. Israel for its part has had time to evaluate the operation of its Arrow and David’s Sling systems and address any shortcomings to increase the effectiveness of the defense.
Iran must also consider the Israeli response. If they attack this coming weekend, Israel can easily wait until after the election to execute its response. With American politics out of the way for the moment, Israel will be far more willing to hit Iranian nuclear and oil facilities - stripped of their air defenses (not that those defenses worked very well on Friday).
Right now, the Iranian promise of an “immediate” response combined with the rhetoric of making plans for another attack strongly indicate one is coming.
On other fronts, the reports of Hezbollah fighters in S Lebanon breaking and running have to be viewed through a potential propaganda lens, but the conditions in the field easily support such a situation. First, the forces in the south are not receiving the support from the north that was planned on. They are getting hammered. The second aspect is the fact that recent attacks on the Hezbollah banking network has dried up funds to pay the fighters. Getting the snot bombed out of you and not getting paid are two great incentives to stop fighting.
Second, IDF has increased the pace of terrain capture. This is something I expected once the border village defense network was fully breached.
Gaza continues to see Hamas and affiliated in the north surrendering in sizable numbers. Though there are mumblings of another ceasefire effort, I am rather doubtful that the plans offered will gain any traction.
Iran –
Ali Khamenei responds to Israel’s attack:
“The actions of the Zionist regime from two nights ago should neither be overstated nor dismissed. Their miscalculations must be challenged, and the strength, determination, and ingenuity of the Iranian people—especially the youth—must be made clear. It is up to our leaders to decide how best to demonstrate the power and resolve of the Iranian nation and to act in the best interest of our country.”
https://x.com/osint613/status/1850817154154696739?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA
Iran FM: We will not refrain from responding to Israel’s aggression. We reserve the right to respond and will do so at an appropriate time Their attack was not as severe as they had advertised, and our military forces mounted a good defense, though there were some damages
Tehran will “use all available tools” to respond to Israel’s weekend attack on military targets in Iran, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said Monday.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian:
“Iran is not looking for war but is obliged to respond appropriately to the Israeli attack.”
OBSERVATION - Iran has already FAFO’d, and may well go back for more.
Syria -
Syrian Observatory reports on an attack on US base in eastern Syria by Iran-backed, and an artillery fire by the US-coalition in response
Thanks Godzilla
No thanks.
Iran has effectively been neutered! What are they gonna do? Throw rocks at Israel? ;)
“Folks, the crescendo of the cries is very concerning - Trump wins, many will go into melt down mode and Floyd magnitude riots could break out.”
I think it’s going to be worse. I am making plans for taking in family members that live in Madison and the outskirts. They haven’t asked, but there may not be time TO ask!
Countdown going big - 7 days out from election day.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Oct 20, 2024
Americans should prepare for “unrest’ if former President Donald Trump completes the greatest political comeback in modern American politics, Democrats told the Wall Street Journal on Monday.
The potential for Democrats to perpetrate political violence undermines their narrative that Republicans, and especially the America First movement, are a threat to democracy.
“I think there’ll be some violence. I think there’ll be workplace fights. There’ll be fights at kids’ birthday parties. I think they’ll be protests and will turn violent,” Mark Halperin recently told Tucker Carlson
Resistance groups, according to the Journal’s Joshua Chaffin and Valerie Bauerlein, believe citizens should be “bracing for unrest” if Trump wins:
“Across America, more than a dozen progressives in various positions of influence told The Wall Street Journal that they are dreading the prospect of Trump’s return to power, and dismayed that half the country might see a completely different reality than they see. Some are bracing for unrest. On a recent evening, more than 200 people joined a Zoom meeting titled Mass Training For Women’s Safety Teams—hosted by a Women’s March veteran who noted its timing amid “escalating political violence.””
https://www.breitbart.com/2024-election/2024/10/28/brace-unrest-if-donald-trump-wins-democrats-warn/
OBSERVATION - Recent “nazi” rhetoric amplified by the MSM is priming the democrat left for violence. This suggests that the goal is to bring in those outside the operational realm of the Antifa / BLM terrorists of 2020. This violence could be well seeded by false flag events trying to pin things on the right - the ‘domestic terror threat’ repeated day after day by the DoJ and other alphabet agencies of the regime, as a potential justification for martial law.
***
Obama: If you’re a Muslim American and you’re upset about what’s happening in the Middle East, why would you put your faith in somebody who passed a Muslim ban and repeatedly suggested that you aren’t part of our American community?
OBSERVATION - Another avenue of priming the pump for post election violence. The pro-islamic radicals that rallied this past spring on college campuses are looking for an excuse.
Note - 0bama failed to remember harris had a moslem kicked out of a recent rally.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Merchan sentencing of trump - Nov 25th
**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****
***
Color me skeptical, but don’t believe at face value news that harris’ campaign is in disarray and coming apart at the edges. Keep fighting.
***
Ballot boxes in Antifa strongholds of Oregon and Washington were set on fire over the past couple days, destroying hundreds of ballots.
OBSERVATIONS - Crosses over to CW2. Antifa et al has been very out spoken in their Pacific NW stronghold region desiring to disrupt the election by any means necessary. Random destruction of ballot boxes - likely filled with votes from sympathetic voters - is one means of expression.
***
Voting ‘anomalies ‘ are hitting swing states. This time around, due in large part to trump’s emphasis to vote early, they are being exposed sooner, allowing legal challenges and corrections before Nov 5th.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Walz’s affair with a daughter of a Chinese party member is breaking. His ‘teaching’ time in China got him in pretty deep with the CCP.
Illegal Immigration –
41 out of 49 looters arrested in a Florida county for looting after the hurricane were illegals.
North/South Korea –
North Korean soldiers deployed to Russia mostly in their early 20s, some in their teens: South Korean spy agency
Zelenskyy says Ukraine will send delegation to South Korea to coordinate action on North Korea troop deployment: Seoul
Russia -
Logistics –
Israel’s destruction of Iran’s capability to produce ballistic missiles has reportedly cause Iran to pause its delivery of such to Russia for an indeterminate period of time.
Russian Personnel Issues –-
The Pentagon now assesses North Korea has sent ~10,000 total forces to train inside Russia, Dep Pent PressSec said this morning. “A portion of those soldiers have already moved closer to Ukraine,” she said
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 40-50s with scattered showers in the forecast.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
The Ukrainian Air Force reports on a drone attack overnight.
Out of 48 launched, 46 were shot down. 26 via regular air defense and 20 due to electronic warfare. One drone returned to Russia.
The United States will not impose new limits on Ukraine’s use of American weapons if North Korea enters the fight, the Pentagon said on Monday, as NATO said North Korean military units had been deployed to Russia’s Kursk region.
(reuters)
Ukraine Kursk Offensive-
Russian Ministry of Defence reports 10 drones were shot down over Kursk region this afternoon
Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -
Russian Ministry of Defense claims full occupation of Selydove town of Donetsk region of Ukraine
Russian Ministry of Defense claims full occupation of Bohoyavlenka, Hirnyk and Katerynivka in Donetsk region of Ukraine
Russian Territory –
A Ukraine strike on the Russian Special Forces University in Gudermes is the first drone attack on targets in Chechnya.
Outlook —
Brutal fighting continues in the Donbas region south of Pokrovsk. Though making minor gains, they are losing a lot of men and equipment in the process.
Push back growing over the use of NK soldiers in the Ukraine war. The US/Nato seem to be saying if Russia uses NK soldiers to attack Ukraine forces, then the restrictions on long range munitions may be pulled away.
The Russian need for troops in the fight is getting increasingly desperate. As noted a few months back, Russia has had to mobilize around 30,000 per month just to maintain the balance with forces lost, at that time in the 30,000 per month range as well. However, in the last month with increased offensive activity, those losses are now reaching nearly 40,000 per month.
Mixed reporting on the quality of the NK forces. Initial were that they were Kim’s special forces equivalent, while more recent cite the soldiers being ‘half starved’ and poorly trained. I suspect both reports are true. The special forces will provide the cadre of leadership over the regular forces. The ‘starvation’ observation is relatively accurate because for the past several years or more, the NK soldiers instead of training spent their time in the fields trying to grow enough food so as not to starve.
Moldova/Transnistria -
The presidential election will move into a second round on November 3, but it is not yet clear if the Moldovan Constitutional Court will finalize the results of the October 20 referendum amid allegations of serious irregularities. The Moldovan CEC validated the results of the referendum and submitted its report on the referendum to the Moldovan Constitutional Court, which has 10 days (i.e. until November 4) to either confirm or reject the referendum results. Moldovan authorities continue to discuss electoral violations during the October 20 voting, and it is unclear if the Constitutional Court will nullify the results of the referendum due to these reported violations.
OBSERVATION - Russia is making a big push in these nations where they by force have taken over portions thereof, with the ultimate goal of regaining full control politically. Belarus is a prime example, Ukraine devolved into war when the population rejected a similar Russian financed power play. Georgia is in the midst of potential civil war as well due to Russian interference and money.
Europe / NATO General –
GEORGIA - Georgian opposition demands new elections under international oversight at a large rally in Tbilisi.
President Salome Zurabishvili addressed the crowd: “You did not lose the election. Your voice was stolen, and they tried to steal your future. No one has the right to do that.”
Thousands have already joined the protests.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Initial reports of a framework for a cease fire in Lebanon
- Israeli armor forces now pushing deeper into S Lebanon.
- Israel has outlawed the UNRWA and is expelling them from Israel, Gaza and the West Bank
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Post Strike Review for Operation “Days of Repentance”
Two of Iran’s “Ghadir” Over-the-Horizon Radar Sites, in the west of the country on the border with Iraq, were destroyed in Friday night’s Israeli attack. The second Ghadir radar ~15km north of Ahvaz appears to have been hit based upon analysis of recent commercial satellite imagery
***
Israel Parliament overwhelming voted in favor of the law declaring UNRWA an illegal entity in Israel.
All UNRWA activities and presence in Israel will cease immediately
Commissioner-General of UNRWA: The vote by the Israeli Parliament (Knesset) against UNRWA this evening is unprecedented and sets a dangerous precedent. It opposes the UN Charter and violates the State of Israel’s obligations under international law
OBSERVATION - Extensive documentation has been provided to the UN concerning active participation by UNRWA personnel in the atrocities of Oct 7 - and the UN has done nothing. One identified member of the UNRWA was recently taken out by the IDF, the UN’s response was to morn the loss of a demonstrated terrorist.
***
Last night the cabinet discussed for many hours the Israeli response following the sending of the drone to Netanyahu’s private residence in Caesarea. The ministers were explicitly told that the Israeli attack on Iran did not include the reaction to the sending of the drone and that another reaction is expected!
Last night, the ministers and the security establishment formulated a number of courses of action.
Security sources report that the IDF is preparing to launch a new, large-scale attack on Iran within the coming week. According to these sources, the operation’s targets will be identified swiftly, focusing on strategic points, and this time the strikes are expected to be far more destructive than previous ones. Military experts suggest that the escalation reflects heightened tensions in the region, signaling a shift in Israel’s strategy toward more decisive and impactful actions against Iranian interests. - I24
***
Israel’s ambassador to the UN Danny Dannon:
“To Iran’s leaders, take this as a warning. Israel has shown restraint. But from now on, you will only see strength. Any further aggression will be met with consequences that are swift and decisive. And to the members of this council, we call on you to act.
Enough empty words, enough statements of concern. The Iranian regime must face real consequences for its actions. We demand immediate and crippling sanctions targeting Iran’s military and economic infrastructure. Designate the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as a terrorist organization it is, isolate Iran diplomatically, but most importantly, take the necessary measures to prevent a lunatic regime from attaining nuclear capabilities. Imagine who will sit here in in a few years if, God forbid, they will have nuclear capabilities.
The world cannot afford to ignore the threat Iran poses. This is no longer a matter of words. It is a matter of action.”
***
Iran’s envoy to the UN: “The US bears responsibility for the Israeli attack and will bear the consequences”
Reuters: The U.S. issued a warning to Iran at the United Nations today, stating that any further aggressive actions against Israel or U.S. personnel in the region will result in severe consequences.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-
Israel continues to encircle and destroy elements of Hamas et al in N Gaza
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Israeli tanks reach the outskirts of the town of Khiam, south Lebanon
Tyre faced heavy Israeli bombardment yesterday, reportedly hitting ammo dumps and other Hezbollah facilities.
Approximately two-thirds of Hezbollah’s short- and medium-range rocket arsenal has been destroyed. Based on pre-war intelligence, Hezbollah now has up to 25,000 short-range rockets (up to 80 km) and around 2,000 medium-range missiles (80-200 km). From October 1-28, an average of 100-200 rockets were fired daily at Israel. Hezbollah’s ability to prolong these attacks depends on its rate of fire—fewer daily launches could extend its operational endurance.
https://x.com/Osint613/status/1850902410169831864
NOTE - I would add the ability to prolong also depends on IAF success in taking out ammo dumps containing these rockets as well as the ongoing strikes on launching facilities.
***
Israel is in advanced negotiations for an agreement to end the war in southern Lebanon and northern Israel, Yediot Aharonot reported, quoting senior officials.
The report also said that an agreement is expected to include the understanding that the IDF will re-establish itself in the border area, exit some of the areas in southern Lebanon where its operations have been completed, and potentially leave forces within Lebanon for a period of time.
The officials stressed that a ceasefire in Lebanon will take place only after the final agreement has been signed, and not a moment earlier. It is estimated that Iran has signaled to Hezbollah that it should agree to the process.
It is also estimated that immediately after the fighting in Lebanon ends, there will be a two-month period in which the Lebanese military repositions itself throughout southern Lebanon, and the efficacy of an international body to implement UN Security Council Resolution 1701 will be examined. The Lebanese army will be responsible for preventing Hezbollah from entering the area south of the Litani River.
Security Council Resolution 1701, which ended the Second Lebanon War in 2006, stipulates that Hezbollah must not be allowed to operate in southern Lebanon and the entire area of southern Lebanon must be free of any armed personnel and weapons other than those of the Government of Lebanon.
The UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL), which acts as a buffer between Lebanon and Israel and operates near the border, works to implement Resolution 1701, though its peacekeepers often come under attack from Hezbollah.
Due to UNIFIL’s failure to implement and enforce Resolution 1701, Hezbollah was able to plan - and nearly carry out - its “Conquer the Galilee” attack, in which Hezbollah terrorists would infiltrate the Galilee region of northern Israel in an October 7-style attack. These plans were foiled by the IDF’s ground invasion of Lebanon.
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/398263
OBSERVATION - UN Resolution 1701 was a complete failure, so why is Israel moving towards a similar agreement that the world knows Hezbollah / Iran will violate? The “peace keepers” willingly turned their heads and in some instances willingly cooperated with Hezbollah force build up.
***
Hezbollah’s Shura Council has elected Sheikh Naim Qassem, the group’s deputy, to succeed slain secretary-general Hassan Nasrallah
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Israeli air raids on the Homs countryside in the border area between Syria and Lebanon, likely targeting Iranian elements attempting to smuggle arms and supplies into Lebanon.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
The U.K. Office of Maritime Trade Operations is reporting an attempted Attack on a Commercial Shipping Vessel in the Southern Red Sea, 25NM off the Coast of Al-Mukha in Western Yemen. With the Master of the Vessel stating that Two Explosions were observed near the Vessel, but that the Ship and Crew are Safe. This is the First Attack on a Ship by the Houthis since October 10th, as well as the B-2 Bomber Strikes by the U.S. Air Force on October 16th.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
OooooooK, it is beginning to look like both Iran and Israel are fast tracking attacks on each other. As noted yesterday, there are growing rumors of an Iranian strike as early as this weekend (Saturday). This would fall within their declaration of an “immediate’ response. Rhetoric continues to rattle the saber on their part.
Israel yesterday stated that last weekend’s strike did not include retaliation for the attempted assassination of Netanyahu via a drone strike on his home. And planning for that retaliation is ongoing.
Now, if both hold to their words, the cycle of strike/reprisal strike may be shortening. For Iran’s part, to attempt another missile strike would be an open invitation for Israel to demolish its oil industry as well as potentially cripple its nuclear weapons development program. The nuke program in particular may well have very weak components susceptible to destruction like the missile production program had. Secondly, Iran is essentially naked and blind to future attacks like that of last weekend. Any Israeli attack would have its way with Iran.
For Israel’s part, I suspect Netanyahu can restrain his inner honey badger long enough to wait until after the election, and I would think the week’s wait would be well spent by the military to properly plan like they did the last strike.
In Gaza, international screams of concern over the banning of the UNRWA have begun. Beyond a shadow of a doubt the UNRWA has openly supported Hamas in all aspects of this and previous fights. Israel is correct in defining them as a terrorist element.
In N Gaza, time is running out for Hamas et al. Once this round of clearing is finished, I expect more to the south. With all the fighting in the north, there isn’t much left of the cities, only rubble.
In Lebanon, Israel is now more aggressively pushing past the border ‘defenses’ and into the interior. Waiting to hear if Hezbollah is still avoiding decisive actions or are continuing to fall back. Regardless of talks about a cease fire, IDF is more aggressively pushing to the Litiani River.
Iran –
Reports that Khamenei has approved an Iranian response in Israel.
Iran plans to triple its military budget, proposing a more than 200 percent increase, government spokeswoman Fatemeh Mohajerani announced Tuesday. The decision follows recent escalations with Israel after a series of retaliatory missile strikes.
OBSERVATION - Iran’s economy is in the dumps and the Joe Mohamed is tired of the conditions. This is due largely to Iran diverting so much money into its proxy organizations to attack Israel and growing its military. An increase in the military will take away from projects needed for the people of Iran, such as critical infrastructure, relief of inflation, etc. This in turn will increase pressures for more protests and riots in some parts of the country.