Posted on 01/01/2024 5:05:22 AM PST by Godzilla
Iran alert
The Iranian media has just started rebroadcasting the Iran-Iraq war anthem
This part of psyops but also an indicator of pending action. The Iran/iraq war was the last major war Iran was involved in directly.
Still sabbath in Israel
Expecting things to get busy soon.
Ping to above.
When this thing kick off there will be tons of wrong, false and other cloudy information and rumors flying.
I caution even my self to take a deep breath before believing anything the next few days.
Based on Amir Tsarfati’s Telegram feed, Syria is NOT faring well at the moment.
Here’s a link to his Telegram, providing updates as they happen.
https://t.me/s/beholdisraelchannel
I searched the MSM and so far they are not reporting anything.
Watch Amir a lot. Solid info
Assessment: The announcement by the Iranian Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) that Ismail Hanieh was not eliminated by a missile that arrived from outside the country's borders reduces Iran's internal legitimacy to attack Israel with missiles and UAVs as a kind of eye for an eye (missile attack from the outside in retaliation for a missile attack from the outside). Also the announcement by the Revolutionary Guards that says that They will respond "at the right time and place" is a kind of climbing down from the tree.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate to High THREAT - up dated July 14, 2024
— Attempted assassination of Trump.
August 19 - DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
Relatively quiet on the Antifa / pro Hamas front. However, I expect that when the balloon goes up between Israel and Iran/Hezbollah that islamic groups will hit the streets, initially targeting any Jewish related element (synagogues, schools, businesses, etc)
Terrorism - Heightened THREAT as of Aug 1, 2024
Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin on Friday overrode a plea agreement reached earlier this week for the accused mastermind of the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks and two other defendants, reinstating them as death penalty cases.
The move comes two days after the military commission at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, announced it had reached plea deals with Khalid Sheikh Mohammed and two accused accomplices in the attacks.
He reportedly relived the officer in charge who made the bargain at Gitmo.
OBSERVATION -Probably the only correct thing that Austin has done in his tenure as Defense Secretary.
Economy- MODERATE Threat - as of June 26, 2024
(FO) According to a recent Institute for Supply Management (ISM) report, U.S. manufacturing activity shrank in July to 46.8 points, the lowest level in eight months.
Capital Economics North America economist Thomas Ryan said the risk that U.S. economic growth will lose momentum and with slower job growth adds to concerns that the Federal Reserve has waited too long to cut
OBSERVATION - Any rate below 50 is interpreted to indicate contraction of the economy and manufacturing sector in specific.
***
Job growth in the US badly missed expectations in July and the unemployment rate jumped to the highest rate in almost three years.
Employers added 114,000 jobs last month, according to Labor Department data released Friday, far below the Dow Jones estimate of 185,000.
The unemployment rate also edged higher to 4.3 percent - the highest level since October 2021.
IN RELATED - Stock markets in Europe, China and Japan in particular plunged due to fears of a looming US recession.
OBSERVATION - The big concern centers on the Fed maintaining its high prime rate - sucking dollars out of the system for economic growth. It wants a low inflation rate - but a big downside to their policy is that the way they do it is by killing business growth and job creation. The hope being playied on the street is that they will give back a quarter point in September, by which some are sayin it will be too little, too late to prevent a hard crash of the economy.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The U.S. announces it’s sending Carrier Strike Group 3 to the Middle East
The USS Abraham Lincoln is one of the aircraft carriers with F-35Cs. Currently in the western Pacific region, it will take the better part of a week to reach Centcom’s AOR, and longer if head to the Med for stationing.
The U.S. aircraft carrier USS Roosevelt has entered the Strait of Hormuz off the coast of Iran. No definitive word on if it was entering or exiting the Persian Gulf.
Note - USNI has had it in the Persian gulf for a week. Austin in his announcement of reinforcements to the region placed the Lincoln in the Gulf of Oman - suggesting it was an outward passage.
Technically, the USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN-72) is to relieve the carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt (CVN-71) and its strike group. However, if conditions deteriorate between Israel and Iran, that tours would likely be extended.
US Defense Secretary orders navy cruisers, destroyers and an additional fighter squadron to the Middle East, Pentagon says - Reuters. Secretary Austin also ordered the deployment of an additional Air Force squadrons and land-based ballistic missile defense batteries to the region, alongside several U.S. Navy cruisers and destroyers that are enroute to the Mediterranean.
No word on where the additional air and naval assets would be coming from.
POLITICAL FRONT –
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****
The clown show that was the SS in PA continues to get worse now with word via a whistleblower who told Hawley that the acting Secret Service director reduced counter surveillance before Trump shooting. The counter surveillance unit never went to the site, nor maintained a presence during the event. Their purpose was to specifically prevent what happened that day and was one of the critical key players that the powers that be in the SS sidelined.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro has appeared to be the leading candidate for the VP slot which is to be announced Tuesday at a harris rally in PA. However, he is suddenly facing a number of media stories that are not too pleasant for him. Most recently, he reportedly left a woman “weeping and in shock” after threatening her on a phone call in 2018, according to an email the woman sent to state lawmakers in 2023, five years after the alleged conversation.
In another instance, he supported the change in the cause of death of a woman who was stabbed 20 times , including the back. Later was ruled a homocide.
Last week, Mike Vereb, a member of Shapiro’s cabinet and a longtime ally to the Pennsylvania Democratic governor, abruptly resigned. A day later, local outlets reported that a former female aide to Vereb alleged that he had sexually harassed and retaliated against her.
OBSERVATION - shapiro’s name is bubbling to the top due to the critical need for harris to carry PA and keep its electoral votes.
Cyber attacks/warfare – HEIGHTENED ALERT as of Aug 1, 2024
CISA & FBI issue bulletin that upcoming cyberattacks may “prevent the public from receiving timely information” about the 2024 election.
These same agencies told you: America’s voting machines were never connected to the Internet.
Illegal Immigration –
The Biden administration has put a controversial program that allows tens of thousands of migrants from four nations to fly or travel directly into the U.S. on hold, after a report circulated internally showing significant amounts of fraud in the program.
The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) confirmed to Fox News Digital that “out of an abundance of caution,” it has temporarily paused the issuing of advance travel authorizations for the program — which allows up to 30,000 nationals from Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua and Venezuela (CHNV) to travel into the U.S. each month and enter legally under the administration’s use of parole if they meet certain conditions.
The only real shock here is that the Biden regime allowed a report on fraud to force them to quit importing “newcomers” into the country on the taxpayer’s dime.
OBSERVATION - Illegal immigration is one issue that almost by itself can torpedo democrat chances in November - to turning off the program early may be an effort to lower the number of areas they can be attacked from on the issue.
Phillipines –
U.S. and Philippine warships rendezvoused near a disputed South China Sea feature to conduct a joint maritime patrol on Wednesday.
USS Mobile (LCS-26) and BRP Ramon Alcaraz (PS-16) met off Leslie Bank, a maritime feature within Manila’s exclusive economic zone and Beijing’s 10-dash line claim. The littoral combat ship and ex-Coast Guard Hamilton-class cutter drilled in bilateral surface operations and communication, with a video released by the Armed Forces of the Philippines claiming that the two vessels took up a patrol formation.
https://x.com/TeamAFP/status/1818993925451071562
OBSERVATION - This has been a regional hot spot with Chinese Coast Guard vessels being particularly aggressive against resupply missions to a Philippine Marine outpost at Second Thomas Shoal.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the 80 - 90 degree range and fair.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
General Staff of Armed forces of Ukraine confirms overnight attack at ammunition depot at Morozovsk airfield in Rostov region resulting in massive explosions that were heard from as far away as Sibir’ki.
Other operations resulted in several oil depot being attacked in Belgorod, Kursk and Rostov region. Fire at oil depot of state enterprise “Atlas”, supplying military with fuel. Kamensky district of Rostov region
Massive blasts rip through the Russian airbase in Morozovsk, Rostov Russia. Overnight, several drones targeted Morozovsk Air Base in Rostov, Russia...
.
Russian Ministry of Defense claims 75 drones were shot down over Oryol, Rostov and Belgorod regions overnight
Ukrainian air defense shot down 24 Shahed drones overnight
Outlook —
Ukraine really hammered Morozovsk airfield overnight and the size of the hit was picked up on thermal satellite imagery commonly used to track wildfires. The whole base appears to have been engulfed after the ammo dump and fuel facilities went up. Russia claims a lot of drone shoot downs, but the extensive damage Ukraine is able to inflict suggests that those claims are exaggerated. Simliar claim can on the Ukraine side though.
So far Russia has held back on major cruise and ballistic missile attacks, relying heavily on the Shahed drones
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- International concerns grow pending reveal of Iran’s retaliatory attack against Israel.
- Western nations along with the US are attempting to rush air and sea power to the region to deter Hezbollah and Iran from expanding the situation into a regional war.
- Israel takes out more Hezbollah and Hamas leaders.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
US official says they expect an Iranian attack on Israel before the end of the week: WSJ
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Air and artillery strikes scattered throughout Gaza.
The Saudi newspaper al-Sharq Al-Awast: Israel managed to kill Rofi Mushtaha, Sinwar’s friend and the head of the military wing of Hamas.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
A prominent Hezbollah operative in the terror group’s so-called Southern Front unit was killed in an Israeli drone strike this morning in southern Lebanon, the Israeli army says. The strike in the town of Bazourieh, near the coastal city of Tyre killed Ali Abd Ali.
Unconfirmed, but likely reports of Hezbollah moving out of headquarters in Beirut and clearing out weapons/ammo caches in the city area as well.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
An Israeli raid targeted an irregular crossing point between Syrian territory and the Hermel district in eastern Lebanon. Israel caught a convoy of trucks carrying weapons and munitions to Hezbollah forces in southern Lebanon.
Israeli attack on the A-Dabaa airfield in Syria, according to Lebanese channels. Iran commonly uses this airport. The airport received very heavy damage and will likely be out of commission for a while.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Unconfirmed but probable. Jordan reportedly states it will intercept and shoot down any missiles or drones that enter its airspace and attack Israel. They did same in April.
Airlines are cancelling flights to cities throughout the region - particularly Tel Aviv, Beirut and Tehran.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Sabbath is finishing up in Israel with no Iranian attack. Speculation is running wild on timing, scope and size of the attack. I think Israel may have given them pause when they warned that iranian petroleum and nuclear facilities will be included on the retaliatory hit list should any damage / deaths occur in Israel.
The longer Iran delays, the better chance western nations can get the reinforcements into the region to deter Iran from exploding the area into a major, regional war. In part by intercepting the expected hundreds of drones, cruise and ballistic missiles like last time in April. Looks like the Saudi’s and Jordan will once again join in shooting down these systems - seen as violating their airspace and territorial integrity. Besides, neither country has any love for the mullahs in Tehran.
Israel has warned Hezbollah (and indirectly Iran) that is has weapons they haven’t put into use yet, but will. The biggest are the Israeli ballistic missiles - nuclear capable. Another the cruise missile capable submarine fleet. Even potentially an EMP weapon. And who knows what the Israeli version of the skunk works may have up its sleeve. In fact, depending upon the severity of damage to Israel, I would not rule out a major leadership strike against Iran. Mossad certainly has the upper hand in the espionage front in Tehran, and probably has where the mullahs lay their heads GPS’s to the nearest 1/10th of a foot.
One last observation. Should Iran delay until later next week, it opens itself up to increased intelligence collection that can tip their hand to their operations. Mossad has their eyes and ears out. Western nations have their high tech assets looking hard. An Iranian OPSEC stumble could make window of opportunity for an Israeli spoiling attack.
All in all , a very complicated scenario when looking at OSINT sources and trying to war game things out.
Iran –
Iran arrests more than two dozen senior intelligence, military officials and staff of the IRGC guest house where Hamas leader was killed in a sweeping crackdown for the security breach
NOTE -The story has changed from a drone strike to pre-planted explosives that were set off remotely once confirmation the Hamas leader was in the residence. The bomb setters were bought off by Mossad and left the country after placing the bombs.
***
France calls on its citizens to immediately leave Iran
Misc of Note –
Some may say what’s the big deal about Israel/Iran? We won’t get bombed here.
Sadly, that is a statement out of ignorance of the past and the dynamics of the present. Secondary shockwaves can hit the country via terrorism, cyber attacks, oil disruptions, sinking of an aircraft carrier, riots etc. Add Tertiary affects to the current political and economic situation and you have the potential for a major bovine excrement hitting the fan scenario.
Each has to assess these threats and customize them to their specific location. My preparations and status of alert is not going to be the same as a FREEPER in Las Angeles or Kansas City. Some areas are more vulnerable to these potential secondary actions. Many, if not most, are compounded because they will hit high population metropolitan centers the hardest. Here in the predominately rural Redoubt country, if Iranian jihadis decide to get froggy, they will be easy to pick out from the general population and soon find that many have been waiting to play cowboys and jihadis for some time now. Fuel shortages and cyber assaults will affect all, but your reliance on either can be controlled by storage or reducing reliance now on your car or internet. Having backup comms is also important especially if the cell and internet networks drop. My family here has back up plans with both ham and CB assets.
How do you discern your threats? One solution I can offer it to sit down as a family / mutual assistance group and war game through a list of scenarios. My family calls it ‘apocatalk’ Stay away from rabbit holes but frankly review impacts - and shake off normalcy bias of ‘that can’t happen here’ If the evidences show otherwise, then you may need to address it depending on severity.
Again, everyone is in a unique position and a one size fits all plan is not practical. Planning and knowledge at this stage can help make up for some lack of physical supples - but should n’t be and excuse to ignore those areas.
Plan for the worst, pray for the best.
Indeed, the latest notes that the mossad paid off IRGC security and got them to plant bombs in the guest residence - long identified as the common lodging place for Hanieh when he visited Tehran. Whether this fact is going to serve to reduce the potential strike to something more ‘symbolic’ versus lethal is yet to be seen. But Amir’s assessment holds water - Iran is in a delicate game of global PR and facing a western rush to get forces into the region as a deterrent.
Hezebollh, OTOH, may feel less constrained. But if Iran is getting cold feet it may impact support they could provide to the in an all out war with Israel. Israel for its part is continuing to cut up Hezbollah commander - increasing the chaos of chain of command reestablishment vital to control either a defensive or offensive operation against Israel.
]Just have to wait and see.
There have been many very precise hits on different *targets* in the last couple weeks. Looks like the islamists are getting spooked. Good going Israel.
From Amir Tsarfati’s Telegram feed.
“The British Telegraph writes that Ayatollah Khamenei ordered not to launch a “retaliation attack” until all the “traitors” involved in the liquidation of Haniyeh are identified. To put it simply, the supreme ruler wants to make sure that nothing gets into his bedroom in the event of an attack on Israel. The Ayatollah wants to sleep peacefully, but in Israel “sleeping peacefully” is understood differently than in Tehran.
Judging by publications in the media, so far the Iranian intelligence services adhere to the version that the Mossad managed to “interest” someone from the Ansar Al-Mahdi unit, part of the IRGC, and they carried explosives to the rooms in Haniyeh’s Tehran residence.
“Ayatollah Khamenei has summoned the heads of the IRGC several times over the past two days,” a source told The Telegraph. “For him, revenge on his traitors is much more important at the moment than revenge on Israel.”
According to the NYT , it’s much worse. The Ayatollah is not sure he can trust his guards in the event of an attack on Israel. After all, a missile aimed at Tel Aviv could fly to his residence...”
Video of kahmani speaking yesterday showed hi nervously scanning the sky. Yep they are in his head
Good!
They’ve bullied the rest of the world far to long with no one standing up to them.
Let them taste their own medicine.
From Amir’s Telegram feed.....
-A very unusual message from the United States State Department:
🔸 American citizens must evacuate Lebanon and take any available flight tickets to any destination!
🔸 American citizens who do not have money to contact us for financing options
🔸American citizens who choose not to leave Lebanon should prepare emergency plans and prepare for shelter in place for an extended period.
-Canada to its citizens: “Get out of Lebanon while you can”
Thanks for posting the feed Metmom
You’re welcome.
I find it invaluable when the Middle East is “active”.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Sept 22- 23: UN Summit of the Future
The National Football League (NFL) has announced the implementation of mandatory facial recognition software across all 32 teams. This decision comes after a trial run last year at select venues, including Cleveland Browns Stadium, and will officially kick off with this summer’s preseason games.
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/08/big-brother-is-watching-nfl-announces-mandatory-facial/
OBSERVATION - Biometric identification is a key component to the WEF’s / globalism controls of the individual. Though relatively small scale, this action is one of many that serves to begin to condition the masses to such surveillance.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate to High THREAT - up dated July 14, 2024
— Attempted assassination of Trump.
August 19 - DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
An uptick in violence by pro-hamas/pro-islam elements yesterday that may be linked to violence in Britain and Ireland.
Economy- MODERATE Threat - as of June 26, 2024
The US economy may have just entered a recession.
According to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics released Friday, the unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in July, up from 4.1% in June and from recent lows of 3.4% in April 2023.
The increase officially triggered the Sahm Rule — a recession indicator developed by former Fed economist Claudia Sahm — which says that the US economy is in a downturn when the three-month moving average of the unemployment rate rises by 0.5% from its 12-month low.
The gauge has a perfect track record through at least the last nine recessions.
However, one job market indicator that isn’t influenced by participation rates — year-over-year growth in unemployed persons — also suggests that the US economy is in recessionary territory. The number of unemployed people has now grown by 14.5% year-over-year. Over at least the last 11 instances that this has happened, the economy has been in recession.
OBSERVATION - Add these numbers to the numbers from the rest of the economy and the picture is not good. It is in fact - scary.
Further, with three months before the election, a recession will be harder and harder to cover up by democrats as key economic elements are swayed more by money and less by politics and will have to swing into self protection mode.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The US Secretary of Defense has ordered the deployment of another squadron of F-22 fighter jets to the Middle East. No word yet on which squadron has been designated for deployment.
POLITICAL FRONT –
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****
Rallies continue as the push towards November grows more intense.
PA Gov Shapario is being exposed by left media with a huge closet full of skeletons - nasty skeletons - as rumors of his being the VP selection rise.
The sudden swap of democrat presidential candidates has thrown some of the congressional and senate contests into a scurry as at risk democrats are seemingly reluctant to hitch their wagon to the harris star, but their support for her via biden could be a downfall in its self.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Harris accuses trump of avoiding a debate, trump counters with the previously scheduled presidential debate that was scheduled with biden, which harris is running from.
Harris campaign discovered the ‘chicken’ campaign can cut both ways and it is hurting her more than trump.
harris’ handlers are struggling to keep her mouth shut out side of prescripted addresses - and to avoid off the cuff remarks. Her word salad at the airport welcoming back Russia prisoners is an example. So far, no open press conference since she was anointed democrat candidate.
Video has appeared of harris explaining the ‘cloud’ for data storage. SMH, better not hope for a sunny day or you may not be able to access your data.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the 80 - 90 degree range and fair.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Relatively slow night, Ukrainian air defense shot down 5 Shahed drones overnight.
2 Kh-59 missiles were launched towards Myrhorod district of Poltava region, damaging a rail line.
Outlook —
Dynamically, the war is at a slog. Russia is focusing more resources on the Ocheretyne region due to Ukraine weaknesses exposed there. Russia shows no signs of letting up from the offensive, though action across many of the areas of the front have declined, reflection reduction of resources to the Ocheretyne area.
Europe / NATO General –
Low grade civil war is breaking out in portions of Great Britain and N Ireland. Yesterday, mobs of muslim immigrants armed with clubs, knives and axes clashed with native brits, with the police ‘protecting’ the moslems. Violence began after a 17 yr old moslem immigrant murdered three children - on top of numerous other acts of violence against native brits. Moslems openly established ‘patrols’ that went through the streets seeking any brits and beating them up. Numerous injuries and many arrests (primarily against anti-immigration elements) were reported.
Similar, violent pushback in N Ireland inspired a very unusual alliance between the Irish catholics and British protestants standing arm in arm to oppose the immigration onslaught. Construction of immigrant specific housing has been torched in recent days.
OBSERVATION - Moslem immigrants believe that the social conditions for a jihadi take over of Britain are ripe and are entering the next phase of the general conquest plan. They are becoming increasingly violent with the govt protecting that violence and arresting any opposition. This weekend’s bloodshed is only the start and will likely get far worse.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Israel continues to make preparations for the anticipated Iranian / Hezbollah attack.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
Rumors continue as to the timing of the expected drone/missile attack by Iran and Hezbollah against Israel. Some are now speculating that the attack will occur as early as Monday.
Numerous countries calling for citizens to leave Lebanon and Iran.
The Permanent Mission of the Islamic Republic of Iran to the United Nations told CBS News in an exclusive on Friday that the Iran-backed terror group Hezbollah would begin deliberately targeting Israeli civilians – claiming that it had not done so until now. Hezbollah has reportedly decided to increase its targets in attacks in response to the assassination of its commander, Fuad Shukr.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
The Israeli army has uncovered an unusually large tunnel on the Gaza-Egypt border area, big enough for vehicles to pass through. According to the military, the tunnel is around 3 meters tall. It was located along the so-called Philadelphi Route last week
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
About 50- 60 rockets were launched from southern Lebanon towards the Upper Galilee. They were intercepted by iron dome missiles. Attack most likely in retaliation for the drone strikes that took out more ranking Hezbollah leadership over the past couple days.
——— FORECAST ————————-
When will the other shoe drop - that is the question regarding Iran’s threatened attack. Many pundits view the attack coming sooner, rather than later. However, those favoring the latter view think Iran may keep Israel on high alert for an attack for a prolonged period to increase the anxiety in the public.
An early attack would be viewed as a show of strength - a critical measure in the arab world for maintaining ‘face’. Risk with early - failure of systems and tactics.
Delay as a psyops measure will work to a limited degree but may well backfire as Israel (and the world) secure their preparations to the point that any attack will then largely fail (or even face preemptive strikes).
RUMINT. Some analysts suggest that Iran plans to attack Israel on Tisha B’Av which begins on August 12 and ends on August 13. On Tisha B’Av, Jews lament the destruction of the first and second Temples. During the annual event, there is fasting, mourning and a practice of self-denial. Will Iran be able to wait 10 day’s more before acting?
Strategically, Iran seeks to prevent / deter Israel from future attacks. So that the scale of the impending attack must be sufficient to hurt Israel. For reference, the April attack saw 300 drones, cruise and ballistic missiles fired with only one getting thru causing a minor injury.
Personally, I still expect the attack to kick off sooner than later. I would be surprised if it doesn’t happen by the end of the week.
Iran –
The Mossad penetrated the Iranian Revolutionary Guard’s most trusted protective service, hiring more than one of their agents to plant that bomb as well as others in a compound considered the most secure in Tehran:
Iran has arrested more than two dozen people, including senior intelligence officers, military officials and staff workers at a military-run guesthouse in Tehran, in response to a huge and humiliating security breach that enabled the assassination of a top leader of Hamas, according to two Iranians familiar with the investigation.
https://hotair.com/ed-morrissey/2024/08/03/boom-contd-mole-hunt-raging-in-tehran-n3792644
OBSERVATION - While Iran seems to be trying to reboot the short range missile story, this appears to be the real macon. In yesterday’s discussion on TM, Oorang posted an observation by Amir Tsarfati that makes sense in this regard -
https://freerepublic.com/focus/bloggers/4207046/posts?page=765#765
Essentially, the legitimacy of iran’s retaliatory strike is undermined since no Israeli aircraft or even short ranged rocket was used. To go one step further, as metmom noted, the mullahs fear that other bombs may have been planted and will be detonated should Iran launch another large strike - and they want to clean house, so to speak, before launching such an attack.
Thanks Godzilla. War, murder, vaccine, biometric ID, civilization v barbarism … the totalitarian population / depopulation control criminals never stop.
You're right - it's going to be hard for the bimbos and pretentious 'men' of the MSM to cover up Harris AND hide a recession... Chuck Todd, MSNBC and the staff at the Washington Post to do their best...
Buckle your seat belts, this is going to be a wild week. Stock markets are in a spin globally and the middle east is a powder keg.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate to High THREAT - up dated July 14, 2024
— Attempted assassination of Trump.
August 19 - DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
Several Federal Air Marshal (FAM) whistleblowers have come forward to expose that former U.S. Representative and Presidential candidate Tulsi Gabbard is currently enrolled in the controversial Quiet Skies program, Uncover DC reported.
Quiet Skies is a program by the TSA that uses air marshals to track and observe suspicious passengers. The program’s goal is to identify travelers who may pose a risk to aviation security, in short, a terrorist.
OBSERVATION - Utilization of ‘watch lists’ for a purpose of nothing more than political intimidation and harassment shows just how far the regime has slide down the CW2 gravity well. A former democrat, now very outspoken critic of the current regime and in particular the annointed successor to biden - harris - she poses a political threat but it is a stretch of the imagination to believe she is a terrorist threat.
Economy- HIGH Threat - as of AUG 5, 2024
European stock markets fell on Monday following steep drops in Asia amid fears that the US economy is heading for a slowdown.
In London, the FTSE 100 index fell by 2.1% while in Paris the CAC-40 dropped by 2.2% and Frankfurt’s DAX slid by 2.4%.
Earlier, Asian markets plummeted, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 down 12.4% or 4,451 points in the biggest fall by points in history.
It comes as weak jobs data in the US on Friday sparked concerns about the world’s largest economy.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c6p224j24x0o
Look to yesterday’s post. Those jobs indicators - two of them - have a 100% track record of foretelling a recession, that is what has the global markets spooked. If the US economy has entered a recession, things are going to get bad quickly.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN 72) Nimitz-class aircraft carrier arrived at Guam on August 4, 2024. At an average of 24 knots, Lincoln would be on station in the Middle East region in just over 8 days. The carrier by itself could be there sooner, but would be forced to leave its slower escorts behind by a couple of days to do so.
POLITICAL FRONT –
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****
Several states across the country have launched simultaneous investigations into the Democrat fundraising platform ActBlue for suspected money laundering.
Wyoming Secretary of State Chuck Gray, Virginia Attorney General Jason Miyares, and Missouri Attorney General Andrew Bailey all announced on August 1 that their offices were investigating suspicious donations made to ActBlue.
OBSERVATIONS - Who is going to prosecute them at the federal level - no one. They will continue to launder money via fake donors for a long as they possibly can, and then some. That is their pattern.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Being noted, harris is about 180 days since her last press conference. Some are even noting that she is in a way following the basement tactic of biden to avoid unscripted questions from the press.
Illegal Immigration –
NYC Mayor Eric Adams’ efforts to stop TX from bussing illegals to the city was halted by the NY Supreme Court. Adams attempted to force the bus companies to go elsewhere or to pay huge fees to cover the cost of caring for the migrants.
July numbers of border crossings is down again, but there continues to be a surge in the inbound mobs seeking to cross before the election and possible reelection of Trump.
Russia -
*****
Russia’s security council secretary, Sergei Shoigu, arrived in Tehran on Monday for talks with the Iranian leadership including President Masoud Pezeshkian, Russia’s Interfax news agency reported.
Growing rumors that Russia is rushing military aid of some sort to Iran. Some speculate that it may be related to air defenses to some extent. Others suggest additional electronic warfare equipment, like GPS jammers.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the 80 - 90 degree range and fair.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 24 Shahed drones overnight, targeting mostly eastern Ukraine.
Russian focused ground attacks in the Ocheretyne and Chasiv Yar areas.
Outlook —
With the initial handful of F-16s, no identified significant actions using those airframes have been noted. Most likely, pilots and planners have been flying country based familiarization sortes to make sure friendly coordination is set and to tease Russian air defenses to judge their responses. With out careful planning, throwing these planes into combat too soon would be like tanks running into an open field loaded with land mines and covered by ATGMs. Ukraine will continue to prepare the battle field for their use by targeting ADA systems while Ukraine ADA systems are geared up to provide additional support to the aircraft. Once this has been accomplished, the first signifiant ‘dog fights’ may occur as Ukraine seeks to stop continued glide bombing attacks by russian bombers.
Europe / NATO General –
The immigrant riots in England continued to cycle upwards yesterday. The govt designated “far right” groups continued to attack immigrant shelters while roving gangs of moslem patrols worked through neighborhoods seeking isolated brits to beat with bats, knives and axes. The British govt has condemned the ‘far right’ and has been going door to door arresting those thought to have been involved in the riots.
Another contributor to the increased violence came from the Antifa based leftists joining the moslems in seeking out and fighting far right elements.
british police have focused on arresting the far right, and not the armed moslems. This has generated more anger in that it is seen as evidence that the govt is granting favor to the immigrants over citizens - this in the face of a massive murder/rape binge of the last several months.
OBSERVATION - Readiness of moslems to up the level of violence from killing children and raping women to open street fighting is an omen for the US as well. The British govt ’s open support of these moslem patrols - to avoid the label of ‘islamophobes’ is only generating greater push back.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Israel continues to take out key Hamas/Hezbollah leaders.
- Iran threatens other arab countries with retaliatory strikes if they assist Israel like they did in April.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
German Lufthansa: Suspending flights to Tel Aviv, Tehran and Beirut until August 12
The White House: Biden will meet with the national security team today to discuss developments in the Middle East
There are rumors that the Israeli govt has relocated to bunkers in preparation for an Iranian attack.
IDF spokesperson Hagari in response to a reporters question: “We will launch a preemptive strike if instructed by the political echelon – we are fully ready.”
Israeli officials: We are prepared that the attack by Iran and Hezbollah will last at least a few days
The commander of the US Army’s Central Command (CENTCOM), General Michael Korilla, is in Israel today.
Abdel Fattah al-Zarii, one of the senior Hamas members in Gaza, was eliminated over the weekend. Al-Zeriei was responsible for stopping humanitarian aid from reaching Gazan civilians. Al-Zeriei was also involved in the Manufacturing Department of Hamas’ Military Wing and Hamas’ Minister of Economy in Gaza.
He had a significant role in directing Hamas’ efforts to seize control of humanitarian aid entering Gaza and in managing Hamas-controlled markets. Additionally, he was responsible for the distribution of fuel, gas and funds for terrorist purposes.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
The discovery of tunnels capable of passing trucks going under the Gaza/Egypt border has refocused corruption of the Egyptian forces and political leaders who turned a blind eye to years worth of weapons smuggling.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Rounds of Hezbollah strikes and Israeli counter strikes.
Beirut Airport swarmed with people desperate to flee Lebanon. Numerous countries have urgently told their citizens to leave Lebanon immediately due to coming war.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Some analysts are warning that Iran via proxies is trying to stoke an infatata in the west bank to divert Israeli resources from Hezbollah and Gaza.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
The Houthis have reportedly shot down a $32 million American MQ-9 Reaper Drone over Saada, Yemen.
Hossein al-Shaabal, the Houthi commander who was killed in the American attack in Iraq last week, was an expert on UAVs who conducted experiments on a new generation of unmanned aerial vehicles for the pro-Iranian militias.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Prime Minister of Iraq: Preventing escalation in the region depends on stopping the aggression against Gaza and its expansion into Lebanon
Jordan’s warning to Iran:
Jordanian sovereignty is a red line.
Iranian channels; Any Arab military party that intervenes in the defense of the Israeli enemy in any expected Iranian attack could lead to an expansion of the circle of fire
——— FORECAST ————————-
A lot of activity on all sides and growing. Pressure by the radical elements of the iranian govt is pushing for retaliation and if it keeps being delayed, will cause internal friction to increase.
All this delay is permitting another coalition of nations ready to take out drones and cruise missiles like in April. I don’t think Irans threats towards them will make much headway, the people in those countries - particularly Jordan and Saudi Arabia - already hate Iran. And if Iran were to directly attack those countries as a result, they will suddenly find not only Israel counter attacks to worry about, but from many others as well. At this stage this is mostly bravado from Iran, in the end is strongly suspect that they’ll let sleeping dogs lay.
It also appears to me that Israel has taken more aggressive approach against Hamas/Hezbollah leaders in the weeks following biden’s stepping down from the campaign. He is a lame duck and the internal democrat civil war over support to Israel will keep his hands tied to a degree. Best possible scenario for Israel is the reelection of Trump.
Remember, the Israeli region is about 12 hours a head of us. Thing can get very hot on short notice.
Iran –
Iran warned airlines to change their routes due to GPS disruptions. The route changes affected areas in western, southwestern, southern and central Iran
Iran continues to hunt down those who may have been compromised by Mossad as the search for more potential threats to the Mullahs continues prior to any action against Israel.
Misc of Note –
We have the makings of a perfect storm brewing.
Global stock markets (including the US) have been shaken by the US labor report - to their bones. Focus will be on what reassurances the Fed and the Treasury dept can make to quell those fears and allow markets to stabilize. I’ve noted that inspire of all the happy talk from the govt regarding the health of the nation’s economy, there abundant evidence of very serious problems.
A global recession could spin out of control in this post-wuhan world into a depression.
Iran and Israel finally throw the gloves off? That will throw even more concerns into the economic situation (threats to oil, growing involvement in a fight on top of Ukrainian comments). Could create a doom loop.
Instability in both arenas may provide an opening for increased civil unrest here. Public perception is an uncertainty as to who really is in charge of the ship. One crisis will be hard enough for the regime to handle, let along two in an election year. Perception of an economic meltdown in the US will be spun like crazy to dismiss or even try to redefine and being good. At this stage, I don’t think Americans will buy that, slinging momentum back towards Trump.
How far down the slide will be? Can’t really say, depends on how many safety stops are broken. Also how willing is the deep state to instigate more problems to ultimately attempt to have Americans flock to their ‘solution’ to the problems.
Too many variables for me to war game in my mind at this moment as all lead to a unraveling of our society and economic chaos with a dash of civil war/divorce.
The mask is off and the leftists/democrats are finally revealing their true colors, with apparently no fear of repercussions.
The chutzpah of them. They must think they are untouchable to so brazenly spit in our faces and do this kind of stuff.
And I don't want to hear that not all democrats are like that.
There is no ambiguity any more. If they are still democrat, they are part and parcel of it and culpable and supporting it.
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