Posted on 11/17/2023 6:02:49 PM PST by SeekAndFind
A spanking new national survey of registered voters out on Thursday shows embattled Joe Biden trailing each of the top three Republican presidential candidates, which is significant. Even more significant, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley bested Biden by the largest margin of the three.
While there's quite a bit to unpack in the Marquette Law School national survey, there are also fundamental election factors at play that tend to hold in all elections. We'll hit those factors along the way.
Of consequence, the survey found Haley leading Biden, 55 percent to 45 percent, with former President Donald Trump topping the inept president, 52 percent to 48 percent, and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis beating Biden with a 51 percent to 49 percent margin.
Likely Voters
I've often been amused by the amount of attention various candidates and their supporters pay to "snap polls," which are generally either online or 800-number proactive popularity surveys, as opposed to extensive, scientifically conducted surveys. Popularity surveys, if you will. Hence, one of the first criteria necessary for anyway-near-accurate poll results is that it be conducted among participants who are likely to vote.
Among likely voters, Haley's advantage over Biden raised to 12 points, 56-44. A potential Biden-DeSantis race doesn't change, while Trump drops by a point, 51 percent to Biden's 49 percent.
These results include undecided likely voters.
Crossover Voters
Hold onto your party's registered voters. So might read the fundamental objective of any election.
While all three potential Republican candidates blistered Biden in the survey, Haley and DeSantis came out on top. The results found Biden holding onto 85 percent of potential Democrat voters, with Haley and DeSantis at 96 percent of Republicans, and Trump holding 92 percent.
Net Favorability
In response to the question, "Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people or haven’t you heard enough yet to have an opinion?" the survey found that only Haley was viewed more favorably than unfavorably, with a net favorable rating of +7. Trump and Trump and Biden at -19. However, it was noted in the poll that a number of voters said they weren't as familiar with Haley as with the other candidates and hadn't had time to formulate an opinion yet.
Overall Favorability
For Biden and Trump, 20 percent are unfavorable to both candidates. While more respondents have seen Biden favorably and Trump unfavorably in 10 of the last 13 polls, slightly more have seen Trump favorably and Biden unfavorably in the prior two polls in September and November.
Somewhat surprisingly, among GOP voters not favorable to Trump, Haley showed a commanding lead, capturing 37 percent of those voters, with 34 percent remaining undecided and just 10 percent favoring DeSantis.
Republican primary preferences differ sharply depending on the voters’ view of Trump. Unsurprisingly, Trump wins a large majority of voters who have a favorable view of him. Among those unfavorable to Trump, Haley is now the substantial leader with 37% support to DeSantis’ 10%, while 34% of these Republicans unfavorable to Trump remain undecided. Table 19 shows the full results.
So what does this all mean? Dunno — polls are snapshots in time.
But what I do know is winning a party's primary and losing in the general election results in second place every time. I also know there's a whole lot of water yet to flow under the proverbial bridge between now and November 5, 2024. In other words, stuff happens.
The extensive survey was conducted Nov. 2-7, 2023, among 856 registered voters nationwide, with a margin of error of +/-4.5 percentage points. For likely voters, the sample size was 668, with a margin of error of +/-5 percentage points.
It's noteworthy that the poll was conducted before the uproar prompted by Haley's comments regarding social media anonymity earlier this week and before the last GOP primary debate. As I reported in a November 11 article titled "Post Debate: Ramaswamy Sells 'Scum' Campaign Merch, While Haley Hawks 'Heels Ammunition' Mug," the former South Carolina reduced herself to calling Vivek Ramaswamy "scum" after he called out daughter's use of TikTok.
While I join those who are rightly suspicious of TikTok's connection with Beijing, I prefer Republican candidates for president who leave to name-calling to the left.
I’m in Georgia, but was listening to a SC radio station this afternoon and former State Senator Lee Bright was guest hosting the afternoon talk show. He was very clear on what he thought of former SC Governor Haley. He called her beholden to the “Chamber of Communists”. In his opinion Haley would be the worst choice of all the second placed candidates.
It was interesting to hear Bright’s opinion on SC local and state politics. He also spoke of how the GOP establishment worked hard to push out the conservative choices of the voters and how obvious it was that they worked with the democrats to do so. Bright also spoke of how state politicians worked to convince representatives to quit the Freedom Caucus and abandon the voters who put them into office based upon their conservative campaign promises.
Nikki would be a disaster.
No
bttt
Haley does not have the brains nor dynamic inclination to run a Country.
How convenient. The GOPe get their two biggest enemies, Trump and DeSantis, to destroyer each other. Then Nikki McRomBush rides to the rescue... Hell NO!
Horse Hockey
No worries.
Trump will be on the ballot, and he will be President.
This is sore assed Desanctimous , GOP & Democrat trolls throwing feces against the wall.😂👍
Trump 2024
The big tell on Nikki are her crazed and frantic eyes.
Nimrata is a Satanist, possibly worse than “Biden”.
Will NEVER vote for her under any circumstances.
Not one negative story has been written about her by the MSM....
It’s what they do. Build her up to tear her down. If, God forbid, she was the nominee then the negative will come out. “She thinks 65 is too young to retire” “She thinks 75 is too old for president” “She welcomed Chinese business to build or expand while Governor of South Carolina” and that’s just off the top of my head, I’m sure there is lots more.
Bull crap. Polls mean nothing. Nikki is the Bush regime pick.
.
She could care less about the middle class in this country.
In fact, she’s said she would cut Americans Benefits to ship more money away to other countries and to Military Industrial Complex.
She knows nothing about Business
It’s the government itself pushing the media to proclaim that the best bet for Republicans will be Haley.
She represents the status quo, and nothing will change.
Trump now represents liquidating those who are flagrantly breaking the laws they’re supposed to be upholding.
That’s if the government can’t find a way to eradicate President Trump first, one way or another.
Hahahah. Here we go again.
Astroturfed this nonsense with Desantis back in January. Not trying the
Same crap Nikki.
Worst wearing of a Chanel Suit, EVER!
Looks like she got them at K-Mart
Nimrod Haley isn’t even a natural born citizen. I know, i know.. diversity is the national religion now so enforcing the NBC clause is “racist” but since america nominally pretends to follow the constitution it’s worth mentioning
Sheesh....media doing a hard sell of Nikki now.....(India will be happy campers)
When ever the media switches to a different candidate they push you can bet there’s revenue xchanges happening behind the scenes..... She’s for sale!
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