Posted on 10/08/2023 12:38:36 PM PDT by davikkm
It seems like the global economy is in a tough spot. There are a lot of problems, like conflicts and debts, and it's affecting how things are going. People aren't feeling too confident about it, especially in developed countries where things might even get worse.
Well, folks, it's no secret that our debt situation is pretty dire. Back in the day, some folks said it was okay to borrow a lot because interest rates were low. But now, with our national debt soaring past $33 trillion and interest rates on the rise, we're feeling the consequences. It's putting a lot of pressure on our budget, and our economy is feeling the heat. It's like the warnings from before are coming back to haunt us, and our past financial decisions are starting to catch up.
https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1710723100969492613 https://twitter.com/WinfieldSmart/status/1709887470660358169
https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1710798978437013603
https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1710761517241528500
September Jobs Report May Be Last Good One Before Sharp Slowdown
The Global Recovery Is Failing
Global economic growth is stalling due to various short-term and long-term challenges, including geopolitical conflicts, high public debt, and aging populations. The Brookings-Financial Times TIGER index reveals a broad weakening in economic activity. Despite earlier positive financial market indicators, global confidence is declining. Developed economies face stagnation or potential recession. Conversely, emerging markets like China and India exhibit more resilience and growth.
The Debt Crisis Is Getting Real
Despite warnings, pundits like Matt Yglesias in the mid-2010s encouraged excessive government borrowing due to low-interest rates. Under subsequent administrations, this led to the U.S. national debt surging past $33 trillion. Today, as U.S. Treasury bond yields skyrocket, the reckoning is apparent: skyrocketing debt rollovers strain the federal budget, and the economy teeters. Ignored cautionary advice now jeopardizes our financial stability; the past's fiscal irresponsibility is catching up.
We Are Entering the Time of the Economic Undead
Signs of an impending financial downturn are emerging, highlighted by the behavior of the yield curve. While some experts remain unconvinced of a looming recession, rising Treasury yields and falling bond prices suggest economic instability. Recent data shows a decline in job creation and market volatility. The shift towards higher interest rates could trigger financial and economic crises, particularly impacting the housing sector. The era of low interest rates and monetary stimulus appears to be ending
WWIII will fix everything...
All such horrible news.
Or break it for good.
I would like to be wrong, but optimism is not my current thought pattern.
The good thing about being a pessimist, is that you’re never disappointed.
you never know. I lost a crap tonne of money in the market by expecting it to be rational.
My X-gf who seems to me almost incapable of being rational or logical is doing very well.
Actually she is one of the smartest people I have ever met, and would give any of these women a run for their money
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_female_chess_grandmasters
LOL, true.
I either get what I figured, or something good happens...
Frank Zappa said it best:
“Don’t expect friends, don’t expect fun, don’t expect a good life, don’t expect anything. Then if you get something it’s a bonus.”
I like it. I’m keeping it.
1. The US is no longer energy independent and must go to the international market to buy its physical contacts (barrels of oil). If there is another oil embargo things will get tight.
Note: Leases have to be renegotiated, equipment needs to be purchased and delivered (don't forget Black Rock, et al., are minimizing loans to fossil fuel companies), permits have to be issued, rigs erected, and pipelines built from rigs to the pipeline grid. This takes months and months for entities interested in success. For entities not interested in success it will take much longer (law suits). Biden and Green/Climate Change supporters have destroyed much in 2.5 years.
2. For political reasons, Biden emptied the Strategic Reserve (about 17 days left).
3. Biden knowingly gave billions of dollars to Iran/Hamas/Hezbollah. How many weapons were purchased with those dollars and from where (Afghanistan, Ukraine)?
4. How many terrorists have crossed the southern border. This attack on Israel was longtime in planning. Expect the worst. Is the FBI up to the task or are they too busy looking for MAGA Extremists?
I was never a Zappa fan, but yes I can agree with him here.
“Don’t expect friends, don’t expect fun, don’t expect a good life, don’t expect anything. Then if you get something it’s a bonus.”
I would add: “and enjoy it”
Could go up. Could go down. Could ho up and down. I predict that excitedly.
There has never been a time when you could not find disaster approaching. And there has also, in those same times, been plenty of good news to point at and declare good times a comin’.
You have to dig very deep to find what is different now vs all those other times doom was coming.
Start with oil. Consumption first. 100 million bpd, led in growth by China and India. 5-6%/year. Had the virus not arrived to stop people everywhere going places and flying all over the world, it would be 10% higher now.
Next, the Fed. They are exposed now as being able to create money whimsically. The new Monetary Theories would not exist if they had not immersed themselves in QE. They did it for 10 years, with no inflation. Now they are doing QT and there IS inflation and nobody really wants to spend much time on that.
Finally, the multipolar nature of the world now. Russia, China and the BRICS no longer jump when the US says frog. They are in the process of erasing the US. They represent the majority of mankind and it is not they who get isolated. It is us.
As for good news? The Fed balance sheet is under 9Trillion and decreasing via QT. It is part of the debt, so it is a mechanism for $33T debt to decline.
Yeah, stock market crash, whatever. I don’t know WHAT is going to happen but SOMETHING is going to happen. At this point I really don’t care. One day at a time…I don’t think we have much more than a year to wait…
SPR drained to two week supply....what could go wrong?
Luckily we have tons of ammunition and have been exceeding our recruiting goals…
Our current US General Fund Total Revenue is $2.73 trillion. (Excluding Social Security and Medicare taxes)
Divide that by the $33 trillion debt and you get 8.3%.
If the interest on our National Debt reaches 8.3% it takes 100% of our Renenue just to pay the interest on the debt.
.
BKMRK.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.