Mohawks and assless chaps.
Posted on 10/03/2023 4:01:26 PM PDT by Twotone
Editor’s Note: Matthew Smith is a close friend of Doug Casey’s. He is the co-founder of the podcast “Doug Casey’s Take,” where he and Doug discuss a variety of topics and share wisdom on how to navigate today’s uncertain environment.
We urge you to read Matthew’s article on how to thrive in “The Great Reset.”
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If you watch our podcast Doug Casey’s Take, you already know. We’re in the middle of a complex and destructive phase full of unknowns.
Our goal with The Phyle is to focus on solutions. To make progress, we must clearly articulate the problem.
Amidst this chaotic phase, it’s impossible to predict even the near future. The best we can do is form a hypothesis and orient our actions around it.
Today I’m going to lay out my process and conclusions. I hope that they will be as useful to you as they have been to me.
Assumptions
We’ve been taught that assumptions are bad. They make an “ass” out of “u” and “me”. But, that’s not always true. I developed a set of assumptions about the future to build a framework of understanding. I use that framework to identify what IS in my control and what is NOT in my control.
The things outside our control, we can stop worrying about. They’re not up to us. Instead, our concern is what IS in our control and all our energy and resources should be dedicated there.
Before I get to the assumptions I’m operating under. Let me say – They are assumptions not predictions. I could be wrong. Hell – I hope I’m wrong. But with nearly three years of the “Great Reset” under our belt, I bet you’ll agree – they have merit.
None of this should be taken as a blackpill. No problem can be solved without sober identification and acceptance. of the nature of the challenge. That’s all we’re doing here.
With that in mind, here are the 11 assumptions I’m using today to guide my actions.
1. Less Freedom of movement. There will be more effort so to restrict and regulate our freedom of movement. From Vax passports to increased visa requirements and 15-min city initiatives – a grid is being constructed to regulate our freedom of movement.
2. A CBDC is coming. Cash will be eliminated. How restrictive it may end up being, I don’t know. But, CBDC is a foregone conclusion. Timing? BIS publishes estimates of 14 retail CBDC and 9 wholesale by 2030. And there are indications that the major economies are working to be ready to deploy by 2025.
3. The digital ID is already here. Biometrics are the future. If you have a government issued ID associated with your photograph, you are in the system already. How the ID is deployed and enforced is the only question.
4. GFC 2.0 and/or the Greater Depression. Timing is hard. But, can any thinking person imagine how the outcome can be avoided altogether. Simon Hunt suggests a market pullback of up to 30% between now and early 2024 followed by a pump and a deflationary wipeout in 2025.
5. Most of my financial assets will disappear at some point. Inflation, bank bail-in, market wipe out, or Great Taking. I don’t know the cause, but I assume physical assets are where I need to be, ultimately.
6. Increasing crime & disorder. You’ve seen the videos. Whether, driven by economic desperation, mass migration, the inversion of law, or in the name of social justice. Crime and disorder will grow and lead to greater physical threats to our lives and property from our fellow man. This makes urban environments, especially but not exclusively, a real risk.
7. Supply constraints are increasing around all commodities – from food to energy. Tight supplies are showing up everywhere. Live Cattle, long dormant, hit an all-time high recently. Oil Prices are up 30% in the last three months. 40% of Argentina’s wheat crop is in poor to fair condition and protectionist policies are on the rise globally.
8. WW3 is coming. A good case can be made that it’s already begun. The Army War College recently published a study suggesting that the All Volunteer Force had reached the end of its useful life. With the military struggling with recruiting, conscription is likely at some point.
9. Censorship and Digital Control will enter a new phase. Deplatforming, de-banking, shadow banning, and social media account suspensions will increase. Centralized digital services of all kinds should be considered suspect and, very likely, dangerous to use in the future.
10. The US election – regardless of the outcome – is an inflection point and potentially a flash point. IF it happens, the outcome will not be accepted by half of the country. I’ve heard from more than one source, publicly and privately, that there may not be a 2024 election. Who knows? We can be sure of is that running up to and shortly after the election, things could get wild. In advance of the 2020 election we had Covid and BLM. Shortly after, J6 and state overreach. What will 2024 bring
11. There is a war happening today. It’s a war on us. The primary battleground is within the sphere of 5GW – informational/psychological. Where I’ve been wrong in the last three years, it’s been in my assumption that kinetic coercion would be utilized. As we can see, much progress has been made in the Great Reset without the need for kinetic tactics. For most of this cycle, they will rely on this same approach. If/When we see a move toward kinetic force, we should be alarmed because we will have entered a new and more dangerous phase.
Do you disagree with any of my assumptions? Did I miss anything? Let me know.
I see all of the assumptions as “Out of my control”. They may not come to pass, but whether they do or not is not up to me. Of course, I’ll continue to speak out against them. If enough of us do, it may help. Possibly.
Since these unfortunate outcomes are out of my control, I don’t worry about them. And free from the burden of unsolvable problems, I can fully devote my energy and resources to what IS within my control.
Members of The Phyle have been doing exactly that over the last year. Much progress has been made. And there’s much more we can do. Let’s focus there.
Number assumption about the future: There will be one.
Hmmm…so much doom.
And yet, inside their website what do I see?
Yup…Get Access Right Now
‘An annual subscription to Doug Casey and David Stockman’s Contrarian Insider is available today for just $199 per year.’
And they accept payment in FIAT CURRENCY! Ya know, that crap that’s supposed to be worthless?
This is my surprised face.
Mohawks and assless chaps.
Everyone needs to make money, one way or another. You got to read his assumptions for free. :-)
What in the Hills Have Eyes is going on with that guy's ears?
“What in the Hills Have Eyes is going on with that guy’s ears?”
I’m still laughing at that comment. That was hilarious.
What is kinetic force?
Someone who’s a Believer would barter or transact in some storer of value not tied to Leviathan, like a chicken.
That’s a serious toilet brush.
“What is kinetic force?”
War with conventional arms. Silly new name emerged a couple decades ago “kinetic action.” Probably to distinguish it from other types of warfare like CBW, psych warfare, and information warfare.
Can’t say as I disagree with him on any of it.
What IS in your control is your eternal destiny, which will last forever.
God wants to save all people, but not all people want to be right with God. Nevertheless, He still provided a means by which we all could be if we so choose.
So considering we are all going to die some day, whether what he sees comes to pass or not, we need to be ready to face God.
There’s no time like the present to make your peace with your Maker thorough Jesus Christ if you haven’t done so yet.
I read the novel when I was a 2nd LT in Germany (77-78). I aspired to be like Sam, a soldier's soldier. I don't think I got close enough, but it was a good goal.
What's missing from today's Army is leadership, and letting the chain of command do its job. I learned so much from my 3 platoon sergeants, all had at least one tour in Nam. You just have to let butterbars learn from their mistakes, and develop into leaders.
All told, I was a platoon leader for 2 Chaparral platoons, and a towed Vulcan platoon. I flunked my first ARTEP, but it was a great learning experience and a springboard for future success. I had 4 more ARTEPs with those platoons, and we passed with flying colors.
:)
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