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Sink The Banks? Deutsche Bank Credit Default Swaps Soar As ECB Raises Rates (DB’s Notional Derivatives Dwarf German GDP By A Factor >20)
Confounded Interest ^ | 03/27/2023

Posted on 03/27/2023 5:19:33 AM PDT by Kaiser8408a

Are central banks like The Federal Reserve and European Central Bank ({ECB) sinking the banks?

Deutsche Bank, Germany’s largest bank (eerily like Germany’s World War II battleship The Bismarck) is seeing a blow out in its 1-year credit default swaps (CDS) as the ECB cranks up it main refinancing rate to fight inflation.

And then we have Deutsche’s Banks gross notional derivatives exposure (Euro 55.6 TRILLLION) dwarfing German GDP (Euro 2.7 Trillion). By a factor of greater than 20! Now, THAT’S a lot of derivatives exposure.

On the bond front (the NEW eastern front), we see the US Treasury 2-year yield rising 17.1 basis points. But European sovereign yields are up double digits as well (except for Italy).

Sink the banks?

(Excerpt) Read more at confoundedinterest.net ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Food; Government; Politics
KEYWORDS: banks; biden; fed; yellen
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Yellen keeping rates too low for too long to protect Obama is coming back to haunt us as DC goes crazy on spending causing inflation as The Fed raises rates.
1 posted on 03/27/2023 5:19:33 AM PDT by Kaiser8408a
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To: Kaiser8408a

Very few banks are stupid enough to buy heavily into 1.56% interest rate products (except when funded by .1% CDs).

Banks need to explain their finances in their 10-Ks and by in branch charts.


2 posted on 03/27/2023 5:25:57 AM PDT by Brian Griffin
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To: Kaiser8408a

This is all by design by the elites to usher in the NWO.


3 posted on 03/27/2023 5:25:57 AM PDT by grcuster
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To: Kaiser8408a

Imagine:

2% inflation - 3% mortgages [net cost 1% in real terms]

8% inflation - 3% payment rate, 6% interest compounded to principal [net cost 1% in real terms]

The second scenario is equally affordable as the first.


4 posted on 03/27/2023 5:30:20 AM PDT by Brian Griffin
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To: Kaiser8408a

With gold money, interest rates are always real.

Only government fiat money permits mortgages with real interest rates that are negative.


5 posted on 03/27/2023 5:33:40 AM PDT by Brian Griffin
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To: Kaiser8408a
Is it possible that the Governments are killing the banks with an eye to creating a sovereign digital currency?

If so, we can do the same thing with a gold -backed currency.

6 posted on 03/27/2023 5:36:35 AM PDT by Aevery_Freeman (Wow, they shut down FOX News pretty quickly!)
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To: Kaiser8408a

The money supply exploded during the Covid era.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL


7 posted on 03/27/2023 5:39:10 AM PDT by Brian Griffin
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To: Aevery_Freeman

Most banks are sound, are they not?


8 posted on 03/27/2023 5:41:32 AM PDT by Brian Griffin
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To: Kaiser8408a

Helicopter Ben did nothing to fix the derivatives problem after 2008. So here we are.


9 posted on 03/27/2023 5:53:00 AM PDT by AndyJackson
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To: Brian Griffin

Depends on who you ask and on the current contents of their Depends.


10 posted on 03/27/2023 5:53:16 AM PDT by Aevery_Freeman (Wow, they shut down FOX News pretty quickly!)
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To: Kaiser8408a

They are ‘only’ up 20% today. Everything is fine. Lol..


11 posted on 03/27/2023 5:58:39 AM PDT by Vermont Lt
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To: Kaiser8408a
--- "Deutsche’s Banks gross notional derivatives exposure (Euro 55.6 TRILLLION) dwarfing German GDP (Euro 2.7 Trillion)"

Consider the consistency in all this.

These "banks" have been gambling, and the outstanding wagers -- for that is what CoCos and derivatives of all sorts are -- are such enormous moral hazards that whole countries are shaking.

When IceBank collapsed, Icleand REFUSED to put public money in to pay mostly British and Dutch investors, and then prosecuted the bankers. Seen any banker prosecutions lately? And note in addition that the Bankman-Freid scandal in not appearing in the headlines. The politically well-connected bankers are expecting the politicians in the US and Europe to simply ignore their "gambling," pay off their debts and errors, and walk free.

Sanctions on Russia over a war with another non-NATO country? Big deal for the same jackasses, but billions, if not trillions, thrown away is just a political problem? Jackasses. All of them. They should be prosecuted to the maximum.

As with Covid just past and as with climate change's worthless paper credits, this all has been a three card monte, and the press has played along.

12 posted on 03/27/2023 6:04:33 AM PDT by Worldtraveler once upon a time (Degrow government)
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To: Kaiser8408a
Deutsche Bank: Where the Dots of Russiagate Connect

And it was ALL a lie.

13 posted on 03/27/2023 6:12:04 AM PDT by Alas Babylon! (Gov't declaring misinformation is tyranny: “Who determines what false information is?” )
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To: Kaiser8408a

It’s almost as if this Biden contrived economic catastrophe is affecting the entire western world. Seems like when the U.S. sneezes the world gets pneumonia. Nah that can’t be it.


14 posted on 03/27/2023 6:30:51 AM PDT by VTenigma (Conspiracy theory is the new "spoiler alert")
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To: Kaiser8408a

“And then we have Deutsche’s Banks gross notional derivatives exposure (Euro 55.6 TRILLLION) dwarfing German GDP (Euro 2.7 Trillion). By a factor of greater than 20! Now, THAT’S a lot of derivatives exposure.”

So, in simple terms, what does that exactly mean? What does the 55 trillions refer to? Who owns (or owes) that money?

And what is the worst consequence of that?


15 posted on 03/27/2023 9:12:08 AM PDT by aquila48 (Do not let them make you "care" ! Guilting you is how thery control you. )
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To: Brian Griffin

Banks by definition are never “sound”—they never have enough liquid assets to redeem all deposits.

“Sound” in modern usage has a very slippery meaning—bankers would define it as their ability to liquidate assets to meet federal guidelines for equity.

By that definition very few banks are “sound” today—since today’s higher interest rates means the liquidation value of any low interest rate loans is below what they are telling the feds they have.

At the end of the day the “soundness” of banks is dependent on depositor confidence—if the depositors are assured the FDIC or the fed will come to the rescue all banks become “sound”. With no bailouts almost all banks are “unsound”.

That is why when I hear the administration say “our banking system is sound” I take that to mean that the Fed will bail out any and all banks—no matter what the consequences.


16 posted on 03/27/2023 9:20:40 AM PDT by cgbg (Claiming that laws and regs that limit “hate speech” stop freedom of speech is “hate speech”.)
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To: aquila48

“Derivatives” are just bets.

If you place a trillion dollars worth of bets on sporting events—and you are allowed to do so on credit—there are a few bad things that could happen.

Your teams lose—then you lose your money.

Your teams win—but the bookie you placed the bet with skipped town with your money—so you still lose.

Your teams win—but the regulators throw the bookie in jail (for whatever reason) and you still cannot collect—you still lose.

The bottom line is even though “bets”/derivatives appear to be a “wash”—winnings = losses—that is not correct in the real world.

Some counterparties may not be able to come up with the cash they owe...for whatever reason.


17 posted on 03/27/2023 9:25:06 AM PDT by cgbg (Claiming that laws and regs that limit “hate speech” stop freedom of speech is “hate speech”.)
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To: cgbg

“Some counterparties may not be able to come up with the cash they owe...for whatever reason.”

I thought that’s what all the rules and regulators were for, to make sure that everyone could and would cover their bets.

If I sell a naked put, the broker requires that I have money set aside to be able to buy the stock at the strike price.


18 posted on 03/27/2023 9:35:09 AM PDT by aquila48 (Do not let them make you "care" ! Guilting you is how thery control you. )
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To: cgbg
“Derivatives” are just bets.

years ago, an article described derivatives as insurance policies (up to billions) with no (zero) insurer monetary backing.

19 posted on 03/27/2023 9:57:54 AM PDT by aimhigh (THIS is His commandment . . . . 1 John 3:23)
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To: cgbg

20 posted on 03/27/2023 9:59:28 AM PDT by dfwgator (Endut! Hoch Hech!)
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