The maelstrom of chaos surrounding the terror attack by Hamas combined with all the other issues of the day continue to irritate me to no end. I know that there are many other things worming around under the cover of the war, we just have to be alert and ready for anything.
One way I’ve been forced to adjust is to refocus on local news and activities that could reflect the global issues. Fortunately in my corner of the Redoubt we do have some space for the more significant actions, we are not totally immune. Adjusting my preparations and intelligence requirements on almost a daily basis now. You should too.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Speculation - are the globalist working behind the scenes to create WW3, or at least a level of multi regional wars that approach that level, to facilitate the transition into their “new world order”? War destroys supply chains, the energy sector, food supply and the workforce, which creates dependency on government, which in turn will be taken over by private interests and central banks through the collapse of the global economy.
Economy –
Mortgage rates last week rose for the sixth straight week, causing demand for home loans to drop to the lowest level since 1995.
Total application volume fell 6.9% compared with the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s seasonally adjusted index.
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($726,200 or less) increased to 7.70% from 7.67% and points decreased to 0.71 from 0.75 (including the origination fee) for loans with a 20% down payment. That is the highest rate since November 2000. The rate was 6.94% during the same week one year ago.
Applications for a mortgage to purchase a home dropped 6% week to week and were 21% lower than the same week one year ago.
OBSERVATION - Our housing market is desperately sick and until it gets healthy any rosy forecast of a wonderful economy in 2024 is invalid. Because that sector of the economy touches such a wide area, continued depression will become an increasing burden on the overall economy.
IN RELATED - From 2020 to 2023, the median purchase price of homes in the US rose from $320,000 to over $420,000 – That’s a 33% increase in only 3 years. In 2011, the average price of a home was around $200,000, meaning prices have doubled in a single decade. The average apartment rental price in the US is now $1300 per month, compared to $1000 in 2020, and home rentals have risen to over $2000 per month on average.
MORE RELATED - Potential U.S. homebuyers are increasingly turning to adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) with a lower introductory rate after housing affordability has fallen to the lowest level since the early 1980s. This may provide an entry for home ownership, but the risk once the introductory period is over is huge.
FWIW, my last loan was a VA ARM, that had strong limits to how much the interest rate could rise in a year. I don’t think banks are setting out ARMs with similar interest growth limits.
CW2 / Domestic violence -
Hundreds of pro-Hamas insurrectionists stormed Capitol facilities demanding a ceasefire in Gaza among other things. All the wile Rep Tlaib riled the crowds out side by reciting the now throughly debunked claim that Israel struck and destroyed a gazan hospital.
OBSERVATION - The anti-Israel movement has gained some traction through the absorption of totally false news narratives like the Gazan hospital. The slippery slope from relatively “peaceful” actions to violence will steepen once the ground offensive starts.
***
Announced protests and pro-Hamas rallies are not at the level of this past weekend, but that is sure to change if the ground offensive kicks off in the next day or so.
***
According to a new poll from the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, 31% of former President Donald Trump’s supporters and 24% of President Joe Biden’s supporters said “democracy is no longer viable.” In the same poll, 41% of Biden supporters and 38% of Trump supporters said employing political violence to prevent political opponents from achieving their goals was acceptable. (FO)
OBSERVATION - The divide between red and blue continues to grow and the inclination towards political violence looms large as the 2024 election nears. The Hamas/Israel war appears to have triggered the left out of its post 2020 complacency and back into active and aggressive protesting. Increasing likelihood of it shifting into anti-republican action as the war progresses is almost certain.
Terrorism -
General threat of terror remains high. Primary concern is that of more ‘lone wolf’ attacks which have increased in recent days globally.
Potential for larger attacks will escalate if the war in Gaza expands to include Hezbollah and Iran - especially if Iran is directly hit by either Israel or the US in response to any action it takes against Israel.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The USS Mount Whitney (LCC-20) a Blue Ridge-Class Command Ship which is forward deployed to Gaeta, Italy as the Command and Flag Ship of the U.S. Navy’s 6th Fleet has now departed from port and is head towards the Eastern Mediterranean in order to link up with U.S. naval forces in the region.
OBSERVATION - Deployment of a combat control vessel to coordinate the actions of two CSGs and a MEF is a serious step up and likely serves as further warning against Hezbollah and Iran getting too froggy.
***
Elements within the rarified atmosphere of the pampered princes of the pentagon are more positioning to prepare for a reinstitution of the draft. A concept that displayed its utter failure during the Vietnam era when Reagan’s all volunteer army came from and center. It brought more volunteers than there were positions - allowing the military to select the brightest and most educated to man modern weaponry and technology. It created a military second to none until Clinton and following globalists took over the presidency.
Today, the military has demonized the very core of those who’ve volunteered in the past - red blooded Americans from Red states. From initial purges of leadership under 0bama, to purges of ranks under biden, these American loving young men and women don’t see the military as anything but supporting leftist govt.
Full disclosure - I’ve said it before. As a veteran I cannot nor will recommend military service for any young person.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Rep Jordan failed to get the votes needed for speakership - a third vote is scheduled for today. Nasty rumors/reports that some of the RINOs holding out on Jordan may be in some discussions with democrats for power sharing or even having a democrat elected speaker with their support. Current forecast is that the third time will not be a charm for Jordan.
***
Several big law firms have publicly fired or stopped the hiring process of pro-Hamas law graduates/students. In some cases these snowflakes are crying that these firms are committing “violence” by withdrawing their offer of employment. This follows on to the withdrawal of multiple million/billionairs support to leftist universities and colleges.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Biden to deliver major primetime address tomorrow night to the American people from the Oval office. Reportedly to speak about Ukraine and the Hamas/Israeli war.
BTW - What the heck is happening to biden’s chin?????
Illegal Immigration –
Buried in the news, illegals continue to pour across the southern border at record rates with ever increasing numbers of ‘got aways’.
China –
Trying to closely monitor given the high possibility that they may take advantage of US involvement in Ukraine and Gaza to make a move on Taiwan. However, they may wait until the first of the year - post Taiwan national elections - for action since the current trends of both wars is to increase and spread the US thin.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Sept 27, 2023
Russia is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine, relying on Russian doctrinal defense in depth to blunt the Ukrainian offensive. However, Russian forces continue increasingly stretched and undermanned, with increasingly insufficient artillery support.
Ukrainian action has forced Russia to move forces laterally to meet the Ukraine advance - thinning critical portions of the line and making them vulnerable to assault.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. Recent attacks indicate the Russia has started to produce its own Shahed drones with Iranian assistance. Russia capable of continued, though limited, attacks in this arena. The majority of Russian strikes are with these Iranian drones. Major targets are grain shipping facilities in the Odesa region as well as trying to hit logistical targets across the rest of the country.
Supplemental cruise missile attacks using old models will be occasionally used to supplement the drones.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is increasingly hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. Ukraine’s mixture of seaborne and airborne drones and anti-ship missiles beginning to render areas more or less off limits to Russia. The fleet is reportedly in the process of redeploying out of Crimea and moving east to Russian bases, about 600 Km further away from the front lines.
Russia is capable of launching small scale attacks in various sectors of company and small sized elements, but any large scale offensive action in the face of the heavy demands from defending against the Ukrainian offensive are essentially nil.
Russia calling for an immediate cease fire in Gaza - stating that it is a war crime to target civilians in a combat zone - No this isn’t a Babylon Bee article.
*****
Putin has been mocking the delivery of ATACMS systems to Ukraine.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures varying between the 50s and 60s with increasing chances of rain showers for the forecast period. In general, weather pattern is trending to the normal, wet fall pattern.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
In the vicinity of Avdiivka, reports of large numbers of Russian armored vehicles burning. This is associated with reports that Russia has restarted a push around the city.
Post strike analysis by OSINT folks of satellite imagery of the Russian airbases hit with ATACMS a few days ago suggests that even more damage was done that initially reported.
Still hard to wade through the Hamas/Israel situation to get to good info / intel on Ukraine.
OUTLOOK -
Some analysts see Russia’s push on Avdiivka now devolving into a matter of pride. It should be noted that this is the first major operation that Russia hasn’t used Wagner group as shock troops. If the reports of another assault are confirmed, the losses for this assault appear to be stacked against Russia. How long Russia can stand for this level loss is uncertain at this stage, but now on its 10th day, it appears that 3 or more BTG equivalents are history. These forces are not replaceable in either the near or medium term.
Europe / NATO General –
Officials from Belgium, Sweden, and the European Union promised on Wednesday to tighten border security and step up repatriations after a failed asylum seeker from Tunisia murdered two Swedish citizens in Brussels, Belgium.
OBSERVATION - Aggressive migration “controls” are almost too little, too late. The predominately moslem migrant communities have burrowed into these countries like cockroaches. Flooding countries with non-assimilating migrants is a component of the WEF’s plans to destabilize nationalism and force borderless ‘nations’. Follow the money, globalist checkbooks are funding entities moving migrants around the globe. It seems that European countries are finally beginning to say ‘enough’.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight observations
* biden departed Israel after an embarrassing series of talks with Israel leaders. He announced Wednesday that the United States will be sending $100 million in aid to the West Bank and Gaza just days after the terrorist organization Hamas stole humanitarian supplies. biden did not bring the issue of American hostages up AT ALL during his time in Israel.
GENERAL ——————————-
More indicators of Israeli preparedness to cross into Gaza and execute the long awaited ground offensive.
Indicators-
- Govt war council meetings and announcements
- biden finally out of Israel.
- Evacuation of civilians from around Gaza and the Lebanese border
- Setting up of numerous field hospitals
- Continued movement of armor and tank to the Gaza border.
Israeli war cabinet met overnight following biden’s departure, probably to cross the “T’s” and dot the “I’s”.
Aftershocks from the now clearly debunked Hamas claim of a destroyed Gaza hospital continues to echo. The false narrative was bought whole hog by global media - and from what i’ve seen, media has yet to apologize for the knee jerk publication of such inflammatory reporting. The common bleat is that they got caught up in the “fog of war”.
GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Hamas rocket attacks continue on the down trend. The space between barrages has Increased to 14 hours in some instances.
IDF hit more targets affiliated with Hamas leadership, killing more leaders.
LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Tit for tat attacks continuing on the northern border between IDF and Hezbollah. Hezbollah continues to sporadically launch ATGMs to harass Israeli forces. Israel has reportedly intensified artillery and air strikes on Hezbollah positions in S Lebanon.
Multiple countries have alerted their citizens inside Lebanon that they should immediately evacuate as an Iranian-backed terrorist organization in the country ramps up its attacks on Israel’s northern border amid concerns that a second front could soon be opened in Israel’s war against Islamic terrorists in the region.
SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Explosions in Quneitra, Syria, as a result of Israeli bombing of Syrian army positions.
WEST BANK——————————-
Israeli security forces have conducted a series of arrests in the West Bank, apprehending 83 individuals in recent days, with 51 of them identified as Hamas combatants. Among those detained are prominent figures within the terrorist organization, including Adnan Atzfour, a senior Hamas official in the West Bank, and Na’al Abu Kuwaik, a Hamas leader in the Ramallah area.
Fighting overnight within the City of Qalqilya in the West Bank between IDF troops and Palestinian militants; Israeli reinforcements in Armored Vehicles have been seen heading towards the city.
Police say officers are clashing with Palestinian gunmen in the Nur Shams refugee camp near the West Bank city of Tulkarem, amid an arrest raid
INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Hezbollah announced “a day of unprecedented anger” against Israel - was largely a no show.
Pro-Hamas protests continue around the world. Here in the US Capitol Police say about 300 people were arrested after protesting at the US Capitol. Most of them were Jewish activists supporting Palestinians.
Egyptian-Jordanian statement: Al-Sisi and King Abdullah confirmed that any attempt at forced displacement to Jordan or Egypt is rejected.
While flying home, Mr Biden discussed aid for Gaza with Egyptian President Abdul Fattah al-Sisi by phone. Biden told journalists that Mr Sisi had agreed to open the Rafah crossing from Egypt to Gaza to allow about 20 lorries carrying humanitarian aid into the territory. Egypt confirmed its president and Mr Biden had agreed to provide aid to Gaza “in a sustainable manner”. Details are still vague.
French Foreign Ministry: The French death toll since the Hamas attack on southern Israel has risen to 28 people
FORECAST ————————-
BULF - Ground offensive into Gaza is imminent.
Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran are likely reassessing their options as the time for invasion closes in. They got a PR bump from the false hospital story - making Israel, US and other western Israeli supporters look weak. The clear and aggressive counter of the narrative and expose of the gross lie is causing the narrative to quickly drop off the radar screen as the deception is not supportable.
The other part of this reassessment is the determination of Israel to follow thru with the ground invasion in spite of global PR and the old stand by defenses of Hamas - hiding behind hostages and civilians. The US also hasn’t backed down its warning to intervene should Hezbollah and Iran get involved.
There are many wild cards still out there and potential scenarios that can come into play once the ground offensive starts. Right now the most immediate reaction may be an increased level of attacks by Hezbollah, drawing just short of full blown rocket and ground attacks.
Israel is hoping to hit Hamas quickly enough to deter any aggressiveness by Hezbollah beyond their current harassment attacks.
Like I said, speculation on events following invasion can follow many paths.
Iran –
Wednesday marked “Transition Day” for the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, also known as the Iran nuclear deal, when all nuclear-related sanctions on Iran expired. On Wednesday, the U.N. will lifted missile restrictions, Iran will seek ratification of its additional protocol, the EU will terminate all remaining nuclear sanctions, and the U.S. will remove certain entities from the sanctioned list and seek legislative termination of certain sanctions, according to the Arms Control Association.
OBSERVATION - Iran has worked around these restrictions for years now and biden’s massive backtracking on sanctions has encouraged Iran to pursue these technologies as well as expand its terror efforts across the region and world.
Iran is understood to be capable of producing enough fissionable material for a nuclear bomb in about two weeks. Chances are they likely have enough already - held under the strictest of security. The biggest question is has Iran obtained the technology necessary to construct a bomb? Its historical partnership with NK and its new found relationship with Russia may well be towards that end.
Iraq -
Continued anti-American protests in Bagdad.
Lebanon -
See Israel above.
Syria -
Explosions of unknown origin have been heard near the Conoco Gaz field base in eastern Deir ez-Zur. It is believed that Iranian militias targeted the vicinity of the Conoco base where U.S. forces are based.
The U.S. intercepted two one-way attack drones targeting Iraq’s al-Asad air base where U.S. troops are located. This happened early Wednesday morning local time. No injuries have been reported, according to U.S. defense officials.
OBSERVATION - Increased attacks on Coalition forces in eastern Syria due in part to the Hamas/Israel conflict, although I’ve noted a lot of buildup in the past months directed by Iran and Syria to make those bases/operations difficult and to try to force them out.
***
ISIS has launched a major assault on several Assad government positions to the south & east of al-Sukhna on Syria’s M20 highway, including a number of gas facilities, one of which is the strategic Doubayat gas field
Africa general –
Houthi elements are reportedly executing a military call up to support Hamas.
So, Biden's giving indirect aid to Hamas? Is that possible? Is he nuts?
FYI - Sorting thru my intel / news feeds is taking as much as an hour more than usual, thanks in part to the Hamas/Israel war, and other chaos around the globe. My level of analysis has been impacted, so may items are noted for continued observation. I think most here can realize the potential effects on the US these events can and will have.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Tyson Foods announced it had invested in insect-protein supplier Protix and plans to build a partnership US production facility.
“The American meatpacker said Tuesday that it agreed to buy a stake in Dongen, Netherlands-based Protix BV to help fund its expansion. The companies will also form a joint venture to build and operate a US facility that will produce bug-based meal and oil, which are typically used in fish feed and dog food. Financial terms of the deal weren’t disclosed,” Bloomberg reported.
OBSERVATION - Tyson recently shut down a bunch of meat processing/packing plants because of ‘high costs’. The only way bug food will move forward is at the barrel of a gun.
***
The Federal Communications Commission (FCC) took a major step toward finalizing the restoration of net neutrality on Thursday.
Net neutrality rules force internet service providers to enable access to all websites and content providers at equal rates and speeds, regardless of their size or content. Democrats now outnumber Republicans on the FCC, and the commission voted in favor of a notice of proposed rulemaking Thursday.
“We don’t exist in a world where there [are] no net neutrality policies,” Democratic FCC Chair Jessica Rosenworcel told The Washington Post. “We have it emerging from state capitals. But … in a modern digital economy, it’s time for us to have a national standard, and not just a patchwork of state approaches.”
OBSERVATION - Control of the internet will be critical for the globalist control of the flow of (mis)information to the masses. First a “national standard”, next will be international ‘standards’.
Economy –
(H/T TIK) Tesla, General Motors, and Ford have reportedly all hit the brakes on electric vehicle (EV) production, citing concerns of economic uncertainties fears of a slowdown in EV demand. On Wednesday, Tesla joined General Motors and Ford in being cautious about expanding EV production capacity, with the company’s CEO Elon Musk saying he was worried that higher borrowing costs would prevent potential customers from affording Tesla vehicles, according to a report by Reuters. “People hesitate to buy a new car if there’s uncertainty in the economy,” Musk reportedly said on a post-earnings call.
OBSERVATION - The auto industry has jumped into the EV market with both feet - to the extent of discontinuing gas/diesel powered vehicles. They have foolishly put all their eggs into one basket.
CW2 / Domestic violence -
A University of California professor came under fire Thursday for a social media post that appears to threaten extreme violence in the U.S. against journalists reporting on Israel — and their children.
UC Davis Professor Jemma Decristo posted on X on Oct. 10: “one group of ppl we have easy access to in the US is all these zionist journalists who spread propaganda and misinformation … they have houses w addresses, kids in school, they can fear their bosses, but they should fear us more.”
The post ended with a knife emoji, an ax emoji, and three red drops of blood.
UC Davis Chancellor Gary May stated that even public opinions considered controversial or abhorrent are protected by the First Amendment. He did, however, condemn the social media post in a statement.
“UC Davis rejects all forms of violence and discrimination, as they are antithetical to the values of our university. We strive to foster a climate of equity and justice built on mutual understanding and respect for all members of the community,” the statement from May read.
May, in his statement, said that they are looking into whether this social media post is consistent with university-wide policy, along with state and federal constitutional protections.
OBSERVATION - I’ve been noting for some time here that the left in general has become more supportive of and prone to violence. This trend now appears to be accelerated by the Hamas/Israel war. She is just the developing tip of the iceberg as we need to expect more of these outspoken threats of violence combined with actual acts there of.
***
After peaking over the past weekend, pro-Hama demonstrations have tapered off, but expect direct action demonstrations, riots, and widespread property damage, to increase once Israel begins ground operations in Gaza. However, there are many protests scheduled across the nation this weekend that could break out into violence depending on the situation in Gaza.
Terrorism -
State Dept issued a Worldwide Caution Security Alert for US citizens “Due to increased tensions in various locations around the world, the potential for terrorist attacks, demonstrations or violent actions.exercise increased caution”
***
DHS hired Nejwa Ali, a former spokeswoman for the Palestinian Liberation Organization’s to adjudicate at the United States Citizenship and Immigration Services department. She was put on leave Thursday, after The Daily Wire reported on her history with the PLO, which the U.S. has designated a terrorist group, and her social media post reading “F— Israel.”
OBSERVATION - This is evidence of a growing infiltration of Iranian supportive individuals into the US govt.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
USS Reagan CSG is operating in the S China Sea off the coast of Taiwan.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
Study finds “presence of billions to hundreds of billions of DNA molecules per dose” in both Pfizer and Moderna mRNA injections.
“Conclusion: These data demonstrate the presence of billions to hundreds of billions of DNA molecules per dose in these vaccines. Using fluorometry, all vaccines exceed the guidelines for residual DNA set by FDA and WHO of 10 ng/dose by 188 – 509-fold. However, qPCR residual DNA content in all vaccines were below these guidelines emphasizing the importance of methodological clarity and consistency when interpreting quantitative guidelines. The preliminary evidence of a dose-response effect of residual DNA measured with qPCR and SAEs warrant confirmation and further investigation. Our findings extend existing concerns about vaccine safety and call into question the relevance of guidelines conceived before the introduction of efficient transfection using LNPs. With several obvious limitations, we urge that our work is replicated under forensic conditions and that guidelines be revised to account for highly efficient DNA transfection and cumulative dosing.”
OBSERVATION - More and more evidence of deliberate cover up of the so called “safe” jab.
***
As if the DNA contamination wasn’t enough, Pfizer is now accused of not disclosing the presence of the Simian Virus 40 [SV40] DNA sequence in its mRNA COV-D-19 vaccine.
The complete SV40 virus was eliminated from Polio vaccines during the 1950s and 1960s because of concerns about its association with CANCER.
Health Canada CONFIRMS undisclosed presence of DNA sequence in Pfizers hot as reported in The Epoch TImes
OBSERVATION - Studies of so called “turbo” cancers being linked to the mRNA jab have been on the rise and here is one smoking gun to that effect. More and more it is becoming apparent that the jab was meant to kill and injure people and not to prevent infection.
POLITICAL FRONT –
After initial reports that Jordan will not seek a third vote to become Speaker of the House and back Patrick McHenry to serve as interim Speaker until January. He changed and there will be a third vote today. Speaking in the Capitol, Jordan says he hopes the House will elect a speaker today. -
“There’s been multiple rounds of votes for speaker before.”
OBSERVATION - The eGOP/RINOS in the house are showing their ugly heads for what they are - sniveling stuffed shirts with their underwear in a bunch. I hope their constituents continue to phone in an pressure them - most need to receive the “cheney” treatment in 2024.
Biden / Harris Watch –
The White House doxxed the Delta Force fighters that he sent to find the hostages by showing their faces and publishing the photo on the internet. Remember Biden doxxed SEAL Team Six after the Bin Laden raid too
***
biden muddled through an underwhelming 15 minute speech last night on Gaza and Ukraine. Among other things he stated - “We cannot give up on peace, we cannot give up on a two-state solution” for Israel and the Palestinians. He also tied increasing support to Ukraine into the package.
China –
USS Reagan CSG is operating in the S China Sea south of Taiwan.
***
(Bloomberg) — Chinese investors offloaded the most US bonds and stocks in four years in August, fueling speculation the authorities may have moved to beef up their war chest to defend a weakening yuan.
The bulk of the $21.2 billion of sales were in Treasuries and US equities, with funds in the Asian nation also cutting holdings of agency debt, according to data from the US Department of the Treasury released on Wednesday. In August, the onshore yuan tumbled to its lowest against the dollar since November, prompting Beijing to tell state-owned banks to step up intervention in the currency market.
OBSERVATION - China’s economic woes continue to plague it and it doesn’t show any signs of stopping.
***
A Pentagon report on China’s military power says Beijing is exceeding previous projections of how quickly it is building up its nuclear weapons arsenal and is “almost certainly” learning lessons from Russia’s war in Ukraine about what a conflict over Taiwan might look like.
The report released Thursday also warns that China may be pursuing a new intercontinental missile system using conventional arms that, if fielded, would allow Beijing “to threaten conventional strikes against targets in the continental United States, Hawaii and Alaska.”
Last year’s report warned that Beijing was rapidly modernizing its nuclear force and was on track to nearly quadruple the number of warheads it has to 1,500 by 2035. The United States has 3,750 active nuclear warheads.
https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/china-military-nuclear-missiles/2023/10/19/id/1138908/
OBSERVATION - Our nuclear stockpile is fast approaching obsolesce and soon may no longer serve as a deterrence.
North/South Korea –
The Russian Foreign Minister met in Pyongyang with the North Korean leader, Kim Jong Un, and denounced the “dangerous” US policy towards the Asian country, a nuclear power
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Sept 27, 2023
Russia is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine, relying on Russian doctrinal defense in depth to blunt the Ukrainian offensive. However, Russian forces continue increasingly stretched and undermanned, with increasingly insufficient artillery support.
Ukrainian action has forced Russia to move forces laterally to meet the Ukraine advance - thinning critical portions of the line and making them vulnerable to assault.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. Recent attacks indicate the Russia has started to produce its own Shahed drones with Iranian assistance. Russia capable of continued, though limited, attacks in this arena. The majority of Russian strikes are with these Iranian drones. Major targets are grain shipping facilities in the Odesa region as well as trying to hit logistical targets across the rest of the country.
Supplemental cruise missile attacks using old models will be occasionally used to supplement the drones.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is increasingly hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. Ukraine’s mixture of seaborne and airborne drones and anti-ship missiles beginning to render areas more or less off limits to Russia. The fleet is reportedly in the process of redeploying out of Crimea and moving east to Russian bases, about 600 Km further away from the front lines.
Russia is capable of launching small scale attacks in various sectors of company and small sized elements, but any large scale offensive action in the face of the heavy demands from defending against the Ukrainian offensive are essentially nil.
***
Russia calling for an immediate cease fire in Gaza - stating that it is a war crime to target civilians in a combat zone - No this isn’t a Babylon Bee article.
*****
Putin met with chief of general staff Gerasimov at HQ of Russian war against Ukraine in Rostov. He may have received some bad news.
***
Russia has detained a second US journalist, Alsu Kurmasheva, accusing the reporter of failing to register as a foreign agent while collecting information online, according to her employer and a press freedom group.
NUCLEAR THREATS –
Russia has withdrawn from Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, but says it will not resume testing. Russia also said they weren’t going to invade Ukraine
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures varying between the 50s and 60s with increasing chances of rain showers for the forecast period. In general, weather pattern is trending to the normal, wet fall pattern.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Some significant developments overnight -
Confirmation that Marines of the Armed Forces of Ukraine landed on the left bank of the Kherson region. ISW confirms that two assault groups of Ukrainian marines landed on the eastern bank of Dnipro and broke through the defenses, liberated Poima village and the northern outskirts of Pishchanivka.
In the vicinity of Avdiivka, Russia launched a massive assault - one of the largest since the attempt to capture the city began almost two weeks ago. Evidence that this attack turned into a major catastrophe for Russian forces as their armor/tank units continually ran head long into Ukrainian mine fields and any surviving Russian targeted by Ukraine artillery as they tried to flee the battle. As stated, the numbers lost are big - and note the following may be inflated, but are pretty well supported by other sources.
1380 dead
55 tanks destroyed
120 APCs destroyed
29 artillery systems destroyed.
Tokmak Axis -.
Ukraine just shot down another Russian Su-25 over the Zaporizhzhia region. It was the 5th Su-25 ground attack plane to be shot down by Ukraine in 10 days. Ukraine also reports of shooting down a SU34 type aircraft as well.
NOTE - Russia may well be having to risk its fix wing assets to try to stop the Ukraine push here following the ATACMS strike on its forward helicopter operating bases providing support in the region.
More reports that Ukraine is continuing to make gains in the region - widening the shoulders of its push in the sector.
Kherson Axis -
More on the assault across the Dniper River. Russian military blogging claims that Ukrainian forces are pushing out from a bridgehead on the occupied side of the Dnipro river (near Kherson city). These are unconfirmed, but this would be the nightmare scenario for Russia. Occupied Crimea is only around 70km away & Russian forces are stretched fighting on several fronts.
OUTLOOK -
Word of the Russian disaster at Avdiivka continues to grow. They have lost critical assets that won’t be available on other parts of the front. While Russian commanders appear to have better coordinated the attack, their battlefield tactics reek of poorly trained soldiers repeating the same mistakes over and over.
Secondly, if Ukraine is able to exploit their new bridgeheads across the Dniper River, the Russian flank of the Tokmok axis is at risk and could cause the defense to collapse southward to reform to deal with two threat directions. Heavy Russian rotary and fixed wing losses this past week indicate that they are taking more risks to stop the Tokmok assault. With the arrival of ATACMS, Russia is now tactically in even more of a predicament, as their logistics and troop concentrations are at a far greater risk than before.
Will need to monitor ATACMS use to see how much it impacts Russia’s operations.
Europe / NATO General –
NL patrol vessel HNMLS Holland has been doing donuts and search/hold patterns south of a 150 km2 large wind farm in the English channel. It is along an expected route of Russias latest subsea warfare ship Yevgeniy Gorigledzha. At the center of the circles are 2 unknown echoes
OBSERVATION - Many suspect Russia of preparing undersea infrastructures for sabotage as winter approaches.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
Reports that the Israeli government has given the green light to the country’s military to commence a ground invasion of Gaza. Hamas terrorists currently hold 203 Israeli and foreign hostages in a vast tunnel network under Gaza.
GENERAL ——————————-
The Israeli army believes that the majority of hostages in the Gaza Strip are still alive.
Israel has reportedly begun the process of evacuating a number of its embassies and consulates across the Middle East as well as Northern Africa with diplomates departing from Jordan, Turkey, and Morocco. Bahrain and Egypt are also being evacuated.
Many mainstream media organizations that initially reported Israel was responsible for an explosion Tuesday at the Al Ahli Arab hospital in Gaza City have yet to apologize or publish corrections after it has been determined that a misfired rocket launched by the Palestinian Islamic Jihad and intended for Israel was the culprit.
GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Israeli army says it struck more than 100 targets in the Gaza Strip overnight, including one that killed a member of Hamas’s naval forces who participated in the October 7 massacres.
Hamas continues to launch rocket barrages at fewer numbers and farther between.
Israel has warned civilians in Gaza to leave immediately.
But Hamas and the Palestinian Authority (PA) are both telling Gazan civilians to ignore Israel’s warnings and not seek shelter further south in the Strip.
Hamas and the PA both expect Gazan civilians to stay and serve as human shields.
Palestinian Media Watch reported earlier that Hamas’ Ministry of Interior called on Gazans “not to cooperate.” and “not to leave their homes,” despite Israel’s warnings.
Now PA Prime Minister Muhammad Shtayyeh has joined Hamas, and “warned” Gazan civilians against following the Israeli notifications, telling Gazans “not to leave the land” no matter “how great the sacrifices may be.”
Official Palestinian Authority released a document today to all Palestinian mosques. In it contains a call to all Muslims to kill the Jews.
Over night the concrete barriers at Rafah crossing were removed. Rumours across social media are suggesting the crossing will indeed open today
LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Continued harassment fire from Hezbollah on Israeli units. Israeli army says it struck several more Hezbollah sites in southern Lebanon overnight in response to yesterday’s rocket and missile fire, and separately says it carried out a drone strike killing a terror operative in the area.
The IDF reported multiple launches from Lebanon towards the Mount Dov area in Israeli territory on Friday. The IDF responded with artillery fire directed at the source of the launches.
NOTE - Mt Doc is critical as it houses radar designed to detect ballistic missile attacks from both Lebanon and Iran.
Israel is evacuating the city of Kiryat Shmona (20,000 people) on its northern border with Lebanon
SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
“Clearly this is an uptick in terms of the types of drone activity we’ve seen in Iraq and Syria,” Pentagon Pres Sec says about drone attacks against U.S. forces as regional tensions flare after Hamas attack.
WEST BANK——————————-
The Palestinian Authority arrested several activists, including freed prisoners, during a march in support of Gaza, in Ramallah.
Another outbreak of clashes between rioters and forces at the Al-Jabal camp in the town of Abu Dis in Jerusalem.
INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres went to the Rafah border crossing: “These trucks are a lifeline for the people of Gaza.” “We need to get these trucks to Gaza as soon as possible and as much as needed.” “We are working with all parties to deliver humanitarian aid”
In a vote that took place on Thursday, with 500 votes in favor, 21 against, and 24 abstentions, the Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) strongly condemned the Hamas terror attack, expressed their support for Israel and its people, and underlined the need to “eliminate the terrorist organization Hamas.” Unprecedented in that they have been consistently anti-Israel for years.
Saudi Foreign Minister: We stress the importance of the ceasefire in Gaza and the entry of humanitarian aid
The Saudi Crown Prince: Conditions must be created for the return of stability, a just solution, and the establishment of a Palestinian state on the 1967 borders.
Iran’s top military commander had a phone call with Turkey defense minister, saying US support for Israel’s attacks on Gaza and sending arms further complicates the situation. He called for serious action to prevent the continued attacks on civilians in Gaza
The ‘Axis of Resistance’ made its presence known yesterday with a number of attacks. See Iraq and Syria, both below, for details
USS Carney operating in the northern Red Sea shot down land attack cruise missiles & several drones launched by Houthi forces in Yemen. The Carney had just transited the Suez canal and was enroute to join US naval forces in the Arabian Sea region. Evidence points to Israel being the target and not the destroyer. Yes, Houthi have systems capable of reaching Israel. This action follows up on yesterday’s call to arms to mobilize their army.
RUMINT - Reports of Iranian ballistic missile TELs on the move.
FORECAST ————————-
Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF) - Ground offensive into Gaza is imminent. Defense Minister Yoav Gallant tells troops on the border with the Gaza Strip that the order to enter the Hamas-run territory will come soon. “You now see Gaza from afar, soon you will see it from the inside,” Gallant tells troops of the Givati Brigade.
The entry of the ‘axis of resistance’, Iranian backed militias targeting primarily US assets in the ME is significant but not totally unexpected. US has been building up assets in the region in response to detected movements of these Iranian militias towards US positions in Syria for some time now. The big question is have they been given the green light to start hitting these militia bases as they have in the past when attacked?
Regarding the reports of Iranian missile movements - this would be the tactic one would follow to disperse these TELs in order to mitigate any first strike effectiveness. It also indicates a degree of seriousness by Iran to jump into the fight in Gaza at a time of their choosing. This would be a dangerous escalation of the fighting and would invite US and / or Israeli strikes in Iran.
Iran –
Iranian television drew for its viewers the regime’s plan for the attack on Israel. “They will be hit from all sides,” the report said the Shite militias in Iraq and Syria, Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthi rebels in Yemen will launch a coordinated attack including missile fire and attack drones to create a siege of Israel. “No one will stop the forces of the resistance,” Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei said in the broadcast.
***
RUMINT - Reports of Iranian ballistic missile TELs on the move.
See Israel above for analysis.
Iraq -
Continued anti-American protests in Bagdad.
Two rockets were launched by the pro-Iranian militias at Baghdad Airport. The first was intercepted by the U.S. Air defense at the American Victoria military base stationed at the airport, and the other fell near one of the walls adjacent to an Iraqi security institution there.
Members of Pro-Iranian militias boarded buses in Baghdad, Iraq overnight in order to take them to the border between Iraq and Jordan.
Lebanon -
See Israel above.
Saudi Arabia –
See Israel above on calls for 2 state solution based on pre 1967 borders
Syria -
Reports that the rocket attack on the coalition Ain al-Asad air base in Iraq killed an American contractor who reportedly died from a cardiac arrest while taking cover during the attack. Unconfirmed reports of further casualties from attacks in Syria. The attack on U.S. Al-Asad Airbase in Western Iraq appears to have been much more significant than initial reports indicated, with multiple rockets and drones having been launched towards the base.
Initial reports of a drone attack on US forces in Al-Omar, Syria.
US military base At-Tanf in Syria was attacked by a UAV, — Fox News
Explosions sounded in the vicinity of the Konico gas field in Deir ez-Zor, Syria, where American forces are stationed.
OBSERVATION - “Axis of Resistance” related attacks in response to Gaza. Will our forces be allowed to respond?
Africa general –
Houthi launched missile/drone attacks towards Israel following yesterday’s military call-up. All shot down by US destroyer in the Red Sea.