FYI - Sorting thru my intel / news feeds is taking as much as an hour more than usual, thanks in part to the Hamas/Israel war, and other chaos around the globe. My level of analysis has been impacted, so may items are noted for continued observation. I think most here can realize the potential effects on the US these events can and will have.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Tyson Foods announced it had invested in insect-protein supplier Protix and plans to build a partnership US production facility.
“The American meatpacker said Tuesday that it agreed to buy a stake in Dongen, Netherlands-based Protix BV to help fund its expansion. The companies will also form a joint venture to build and operate a US facility that will produce bug-based meal and oil, which are typically used in fish feed and dog food. Financial terms of the deal weren’t disclosed,” Bloomberg reported.
OBSERVATION - Tyson recently shut down a bunch of meat processing/packing plants because of ‘high costs’. The only way bug food will move forward is at the barrel of a gun.
***
The Federal Communications Commission (FCC) took a major step toward finalizing the restoration of net neutrality on Thursday.
Net neutrality rules force internet service providers to enable access to all websites and content providers at equal rates and speeds, regardless of their size or content. Democrats now outnumber Republicans on the FCC, and the commission voted in favor of a notice of proposed rulemaking Thursday.
“We don’t exist in a world where there [are] no net neutrality policies,” Democratic FCC Chair Jessica Rosenworcel told The Washington Post. “We have it emerging from state capitals. But … in a modern digital economy, it’s time for us to have a national standard, and not just a patchwork of state approaches.”
OBSERVATION - Control of the internet will be critical for the globalist control of the flow of (mis)information to the masses. First a “national standard”, next will be international ‘standards’.
Economy –
(H/T TIK) Tesla, General Motors, and Ford have reportedly all hit the brakes on electric vehicle (EV) production, citing concerns of economic uncertainties fears of a slowdown in EV demand. On Wednesday, Tesla joined General Motors and Ford in being cautious about expanding EV production capacity, with the company’s CEO Elon Musk saying he was worried that higher borrowing costs would prevent potential customers from affording Tesla vehicles, according to a report by Reuters. “People hesitate to buy a new car if there’s uncertainty in the economy,” Musk reportedly said on a post-earnings call.
OBSERVATION - The auto industry has jumped into the EV market with both feet - to the extent of discontinuing gas/diesel powered vehicles. They have foolishly put all their eggs into one basket.
CW2 / Domestic violence -
A University of California professor came under fire Thursday for a social media post that appears to threaten extreme violence in the U.S. against journalists reporting on Israel — and their children.
UC Davis Professor Jemma Decristo posted on X on Oct. 10: “one group of ppl we have easy access to in the US is all these zionist journalists who spread propaganda and misinformation … they have houses w addresses, kids in school, they can fear their bosses, but they should fear us more.”
The post ended with a knife emoji, an ax emoji, and three red drops of blood.
UC Davis Chancellor Gary May stated that even public opinions considered controversial or abhorrent are protected by the First Amendment. He did, however, condemn the social media post in a statement.
“UC Davis rejects all forms of violence and discrimination, as they are antithetical to the values of our university. We strive to foster a climate of equity and justice built on mutual understanding and respect for all members of the community,” the statement from May read.
May, in his statement, said that they are looking into whether this social media post is consistent with university-wide policy, along with state and federal constitutional protections.
OBSERVATION - I’ve been noting for some time here that the left in general has become more supportive of and prone to violence. This trend now appears to be accelerated by the Hamas/Israel war. She is just the developing tip of the iceberg as we need to expect more of these outspoken threats of violence combined with actual acts there of.
***
After peaking over the past weekend, pro-Hama demonstrations have tapered off, but expect direct action demonstrations, riots, and widespread property damage, to increase once Israel begins ground operations in Gaza. However, there are many protests scheduled across the nation this weekend that could break out into violence depending on the situation in Gaza.
Terrorism -
State Dept issued a Worldwide Caution Security Alert for US citizens “Due to increased tensions in various locations around the world, the potential for terrorist attacks, demonstrations or violent actions.exercise increased caution”
***
DHS hired Nejwa Ali, a former spokeswoman for the Palestinian Liberation Organization’s to adjudicate at the United States Citizenship and Immigration Services department. She was put on leave Thursday, after The Daily Wire reported on her history with the PLO, which the U.S. has designated a terrorist group, and her social media post reading “F— Israel.”
OBSERVATION - This is evidence of a growing infiltration of Iranian supportive individuals into the US govt.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
USS Reagan CSG is operating in the S China Sea off the coast of Taiwan.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
Study finds “presence of billions to hundreds of billions of DNA molecules per dose” in both Pfizer and Moderna mRNA injections.
“Conclusion: These data demonstrate the presence of billions to hundreds of billions of DNA molecules per dose in these vaccines. Using fluorometry, all vaccines exceed the guidelines for residual DNA set by FDA and WHO of 10 ng/dose by 188 – 509-fold. However, qPCR residual DNA content in all vaccines were below these guidelines emphasizing the importance of methodological clarity and consistency when interpreting quantitative guidelines. The preliminary evidence of a dose-response effect of residual DNA measured with qPCR and SAEs warrant confirmation and further investigation. Our findings extend existing concerns about vaccine safety and call into question the relevance of guidelines conceived before the introduction of efficient transfection using LNPs. With several obvious limitations, we urge that our work is replicated under forensic conditions and that guidelines be revised to account for highly efficient DNA transfection and cumulative dosing.”
OBSERVATION - More and more evidence of deliberate cover up of the so called “safe” jab.
***
As if the DNA contamination wasn’t enough, Pfizer is now accused of not disclosing the presence of the Simian Virus 40 [SV40] DNA sequence in its mRNA COV-D-19 vaccine.
The complete SV40 virus was eliminated from Polio vaccines during the 1950s and 1960s because of concerns about its association with CANCER.
Health Canada CONFIRMS undisclosed presence of DNA sequence in Pfizers hot as reported in The Epoch TImes
OBSERVATION - Studies of so called “turbo” cancers being linked to the mRNA jab have been on the rise and here is one smoking gun to that effect. More and more it is becoming apparent that the jab was meant to kill and injure people and not to prevent infection.
POLITICAL FRONT –
After initial reports that Jordan will not seek a third vote to become Speaker of the House and back Patrick McHenry to serve as interim Speaker until January. He changed and there will be a third vote today. Speaking in the Capitol, Jordan says he hopes the House will elect a speaker today. -
“There’s been multiple rounds of votes for speaker before.”
OBSERVATION - The eGOP/RINOS in the house are showing their ugly heads for what they are - sniveling stuffed shirts with their underwear in a bunch. I hope their constituents continue to phone in an pressure them - most need to receive the “cheney” treatment in 2024.
Biden / Harris Watch –
The White House doxxed the Delta Force fighters that he sent to find the hostages by showing their faces and publishing the photo on the internet. Remember Biden doxxed SEAL Team Six after the Bin Laden raid too
***
biden muddled through an underwhelming 15 minute speech last night on Gaza and Ukraine. Among other things he stated - “We cannot give up on peace, we cannot give up on a two-state solution” for Israel and the Palestinians. He also tied increasing support to Ukraine into the package.
China –
USS Reagan CSG is operating in the S China Sea south of Taiwan.
***
(Bloomberg) — Chinese investors offloaded the most US bonds and stocks in four years in August, fueling speculation the authorities may have moved to beef up their war chest to defend a weakening yuan.
The bulk of the $21.2 billion of sales were in Treasuries and US equities, with funds in the Asian nation also cutting holdings of agency debt, according to data from the US Department of the Treasury released on Wednesday. In August, the onshore yuan tumbled to its lowest against the dollar since November, prompting Beijing to tell state-owned banks to step up intervention in the currency market.
OBSERVATION - China’s economic woes continue to plague it and it doesn’t show any signs of stopping.
***
A Pentagon report on China’s military power says Beijing is exceeding previous projections of how quickly it is building up its nuclear weapons arsenal and is “almost certainly” learning lessons from Russia’s war in Ukraine about what a conflict over Taiwan might look like.
The report released Thursday also warns that China may be pursuing a new intercontinental missile system using conventional arms that, if fielded, would allow Beijing “to threaten conventional strikes against targets in the continental United States, Hawaii and Alaska.”
Last year’s report warned that Beijing was rapidly modernizing its nuclear force and was on track to nearly quadruple the number of warheads it has to 1,500 by 2035. The United States has 3,750 active nuclear warheads.
https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/china-military-nuclear-missiles/2023/10/19/id/1138908/
OBSERVATION - Our nuclear stockpile is fast approaching obsolesce and soon may no longer serve as a deterrence.
North/South Korea –
The Russian Foreign Minister met in Pyongyang with the North Korean leader, Kim Jong Un, and denounced the “dangerous” US policy towards the Asian country, a nuclear power
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Sept 27, 2023
Russia is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine, relying on Russian doctrinal defense in depth to blunt the Ukrainian offensive. However, Russian forces continue increasingly stretched and undermanned, with increasingly insufficient artillery support.
Ukrainian action has forced Russia to move forces laterally to meet the Ukraine advance - thinning critical portions of the line and making them vulnerable to assault.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. Recent attacks indicate the Russia has started to produce its own Shahed drones with Iranian assistance. Russia capable of continued, though limited, attacks in this arena. The majority of Russian strikes are with these Iranian drones. Major targets are grain shipping facilities in the Odesa region as well as trying to hit logistical targets across the rest of the country.
Supplemental cruise missile attacks using old models will be occasionally used to supplement the drones.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is increasingly hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. Ukraine’s mixture of seaborne and airborne drones and anti-ship missiles beginning to render areas more or less off limits to Russia. The fleet is reportedly in the process of redeploying out of Crimea and moving east to Russian bases, about 600 Km further away from the front lines.
Russia is capable of launching small scale attacks in various sectors of company and small sized elements, but any large scale offensive action in the face of the heavy demands from defending against the Ukrainian offensive are essentially nil.
***
Russia calling for an immediate cease fire in Gaza - stating that it is a war crime to target civilians in a combat zone - No this isn’t a Babylon Bee article.
*****
Putin met with chief of general staff Gerasimov at HQ of Russian war against Ukraine in Rostov. He may have received some bad news.
***
Russia has detained a second US journalist, Alsu Kurmasheva, accusing the reporter of failing to register as a foreign agent while collecting information online, according to her employer and a press freedom group.
NUCLEAR THREATS –
Russia has withdrawn from Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, but says it will not resume testing. Russia also said they weren’t going to invade Ukraine
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures varying between the 50s and 60s with increasing chances of rain showers for the forecast period. In general, weather pattern is trending to the normal, wet fall pattern.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Some significant developments overnight -
Confirmation that Marines of the Armed Forces of Ukraine landed on the left bank of the Kherson region. ISW confirms that two assault groups of Ukrainian marines landed on the eastern bank of Dnipro and broke through the defenses, liberated Poima village and the northern outskirts of Pishchanivka.
In the vicinity of Avdiivka, Russia launched a massive assault - one of the largest since the attempt to capture the city began almost two weeks ago. Evidence that this attack turned into a major catastrophe for Russian forces as their armor/tank units continually ran head long into Ukrainian mine fields and any surviving Russian targeted by Ukraine artillery as they tried to flee the battle. As stated, the numbers lost are big - and note the following may be inflated, but are pretty well supported by other sources.
1380 dead
55 tanks destroyed
120 APCs destroyed
29 artillery systems destroyed.
Tokmak Axis -.
Ukraine just shot down another Russian Su-25 over the Zaporizhzhia region. It was the 5th Su-25 ground attack plane to be shot down by Ukraine in 10 days. Ukraine also reports of shooting down a SU34 type aircraft as well.
NOTE - Russia may well be having to risk its fix wing assets to try to stop the Ukraine push here following the ATACMS strike on its forward helicopter operating bases providing support in the region.
More reports that Ukraine is continuing to make gains in the region - widening the shoulders of its push in the sector.
Kherson Axis -
More on the assault across the Dniper River. Russian military blogging claims that Ukrainian forces are pushing out from a bridgehead on the occupied side of the Dnipro river (near Kherson city). These are unconfirmed, but this would be the nightmare scenario for Russia. Occupied Crimea is only around 70km away & Russian forces are stretched fighting on several fronts.
OUTLOOK -
Word of the Russian disaster at Avdiivka continues to grow. They have lost critical assets that won’t be available on other parts of the front. While Russian commanders appear to have better coordinated the attack, their battlefield tactics reek of poorly trained soldiers repeating the same mistakes over and over.
Secondly, if Ukraine is able to exploit their new bridgeheads across the Dniper River, the Russian flank of the Tokmok axis is at risk and could cause the defense to collapse southward to reform to deal with two threat directions. Heavy Russian rotary and fixed wing losses this past week indicate that they are taking more risks to stop the Tokmok assault. With the arrival of ATACMS, Russia is now tactically in even more of a predicament, as their logistics and troop concentrations are at a far greater risk than before.
Will need to monitor ATACMS use to see how much it impacts Russia’s operations.
Europe / NATO General –
NL patrol vessel HNMLS Holland has been doing donuts and search/hold patterns south of a 150 km2 large wind farm in the English channel. It is along an expected route of Russias latest subsea warfare ship Yevgeniy Gorigledzha. At the center of the circles are 2 unknown echoes
OBSERVATION - Many suspect Russia of preparing undersea infrastructures for sabotage as winter approaches.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
Reports that the Israeli government has given the green light to the country’s military to commence a ground invasion of Gaza. Hamas terrorists currently hold 203 Israeli and foreign hostages in a vast tunnel network under Gaza.
GENERAL ——————————-
The Israeli army believes that the majority of hostages in the Gaza Strip are still alive.
Israel has reportedly begun the process of evacuating a number of its embassies and consulates across the Middle East as well as Northern Africa with diplomates departing from Jordan, Turkey, and Morocco. Bahrain and Egypt are also being evacuated.
Many mainstream media organizations that initially reported Israel was responsible for an explosion Tuesday at the Al Ahli Arab hospital in Gaza City have yet to apologize or publish corrections after it has been determined that a misfired rocket launched by the Palestinian Islamic Jihad and intended for Israel was the culprit.
GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Israeli army says it struck more than 100 targets in the Gaza Strip overnight, including one that killed a member of Hamas’s naval forces who participated in the October 7 massacres.
Hamas continues to launch rocket barrages at fewer numbers and farther between.
Israel has warned civilians in Gaza to leave immediately.
But Hamas and the Palestinian Authority (PA) are both telling Gazan civilians to ignore Israel’s warnings and not seek shelter further south in the Strip.
Hamas and the PA both expect Gazan civilians to stay and serve as human shields.
Palestinian Media Watch reported earlier that Hamas’ Ministry of Interior called on Gazans “not to cooperate.” and “not to leave their homes,” despite Israel’s warnings.
Now PA Prime Minister Muhammad Shtayyeh has joined Hamas, and “warned” Gazan civilians against following the Israeli notifications, telling Gazans “not to leave the land” no matter “how great the sacrifices may be.”
Official Palestinian Authority released a document today to all Palestinian mosques. In it contains a call to all Muslims to kill the Jews.
Over night the concrete barriers at Rafah crossing were removed. Rumours across social media are suggesting the crossing will indeed open today
LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Continued harassment fire from Hezbollah on Israeli units. Israeli army says it struck several more Hezbollah sites in southern Lebanon overnight in response to yesterday’s rocket and missile fire, and separately says it carried out a drone strike killing a terror operative in the area.
The IDF reported multiple launches from Lebanon towards the Mount Dov area in Israeli territory on Friday. The IDF responded with artillery fire directed at the source of the launches.
NOTE - Mt Doc is critical as it houses radar designed to detect ballistic missile attacks from both Lebanon and Iran.
Israel is evacuating the city of Kiryat Shmona (20,000 people) on its northern border with Lebanon
SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
“Clearly this is an uptick in terms of the types of drone activity we’ve seen in Iraq and Syria,” Pentagon Pres Sec says about drone attacks against U.S. forces as regional tensions flare after Hamas attack.
WEST BANK——————————-
The Palestinian Authority arrested several activists, including freed prisoners, during a march in support of Gaza, in Ramallah.
Another outbreak of clashes between rioters and forces at the Al-Jabal camp in the town of Abu Dis in Jerusalem.
INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres went to the Rafah border crossing: “These trucks are a lifeline for the people of Gaza.” “We need to get these trucks to Gaza as soon as possible and as much as needed.” “We are working with all parties to deliver humanitarian aid”
In a vote that took place on Thursday, with 500 votes in favor, 21 against, and 24 abstentions, the Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) strongly condemned the Hamas terror attack, expressed their support for Israel and its people, and underlined the need to “eliminate the terrorist organization Hamas.” Unprecedented in that they have been consistently anti-Israel for years.
Saudi Foreign Minister: We stress the importance of the ceasefire in Gaza and the entry of humanitarian aid
The Saudi Crown Prince: Conditions must be created for the return of stability, a just solution, and the establishment of a Palestinian state on the 1967 borders.
Iran’s top military commander had a phone call with Turkey defense minister, saying US support for Israel’s attacks on Gaza and sending arms further complicates the situation. He called for serious action to prevent the continued attacks on civilians in Gaza
The ‘Axis of Resistance’ made its presence known yesterday with a number of attacks. See Iraq and Syria, both below, for details
USS Carney operating in the northern Red Sea shot down land attack cruise missiles & several drones launched by Houthi forces in Yemen. The Carney had just transited the Suez canal and was enroute to join US naval forces in the Arabian Sea region. Evidence points to Israel being the target and not the destroyer. Yes, Houthi have systems capable of reaching Israel. This action follows up on yesterday’s call to arms to mobilize their army.
RUMINT - Reports of Iranian ballistic missile TELs on the move.
FORECAST ————————-
Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF) - Ground offensive into Gaza is imminent. Defense Minister Yoav Gallant tells troops on the border with the Gaza Strip that the order to enter the Hamas-run territory will come soon. “You now see Gaza from afar, soon you will see it from the inside,” Gallant tells troops of the Givati Brigade.
The entry of the ‘axis of resistance’, Iranian backed militias targeting primarily US assets in the ME is significant but not totally unexpected. US has been building up assets in the region in response to detected movements of these Iranian militias towards US positions in Syria for some time now. The big question is have they been given the green light to start hitting these militia bases as they have in the past when attacked?
Regarding the reports of Iranian missile movements - this would be the tactic one would follow to disperse these TELs in order to mitigate any first strike effectiveness. It also indicates a degree of seriousness by Iran to jump into the fight in Gaza at a time of their choosing. This would be a dangerous escalation of the fighting and would invite US and / or Israeli strikes in Iran.
Iran –
Iranian television drew for its viewers the regime’s plan for the attack on Israel. “They will be hit from all sides,” the report said the Shite militias in Iraq and Syria, Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthi rebels in Yemen will launch a coordinated attack including missile fire and attack drones to create a siege of Israel. “No one will stop the forces of the resistance,” Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei said in the broadcast.
***
RUMINT - Reports of Iranian ballistic missile TELs on the move.
See Israel above for analysis.
Iraq -
Continued anti-American protests in Bagdad.
Two rockets were launched by the pro-Iranian militias at Baghdad Airport. The first was intercepted by the U.S. Air defense at the American Victoria military base stationed at the airport, and the other fell near one of the walls adjacent to an Iraqi security institution there.
Members of Pro-Iranian militias boarded buses in Baghdad, Iraq overnight in order to take them to the border between Iraq and Jordan.
Lebanon -
See Israel above.
Saudi Arabia –
See Israel above on calls for 2 state solution based on pre 1967 borders
Syria -
Reports that the rocket attack on the coalition Ain al-Asad air base in Iraq killed an American contractor who reportedly died from a cardiac arrest while taking cover during the attack. Unconfirmed reports of further casualties from attacks in Syria. The attack on U.S. Al-Asad Airbase in Western Iraq appears to have been much more significant than initial reports indicated, with multiple rockets and drones having been launched towards the base.
Initial reports of a drone attack on US forces in Al-Omar, Syria.
US military base At-Tanf in Syria was attacked by a UAV, — Fox News
Explosions sounded in the vicinity of the Konico gas field in Deir ez-Zor, Syria, where American forces are stationed.
OBSERVATION - “Axis of Resistance” related attacks in response to Gaza. Will our forces be allowed to respond?
Africa general –
Houthi launched missile/drone attacks towards Israel following yesterday’s military call-up. All shot down by US destroyer in the Red Sea.
One of those 'eyes were bigger than the stomach' things. EV's don't make much sense for most families beyond a 'second car'. The fact it's taken this long for people to discover that reality is a testament to the fact propaganda and advertising works.
And so the pendulum swings... and will swing too far again.
>>OBSERVATION - The auto industry has jumped into the EV market with both feet - to the extent of discontinuing gas/diesel powered vehicles. They have foolishly put all their eggs into one basket.
There is significant government arm twisting involved with EPA regs. Look into that, it’s a disaster of central planning in the making to rival those of the USSR.
Economy –
The U.S. government posted a $1.695 trillion budget deficit in fiscal 2023, a 23% jump from the prior year, as revenues fell and outlays for Social Security, Medicare and interest costs on the federal debt rose significantly.
OBSERVATION - A 23% JUMP! Massive effort to crash the country before the 2024 election and to facility the ‘great reset’.
CW2 / Domestic violence -
Hakeem Jeffries just called Jim Jordan a “clear and present danger to the American people” before offering his support for Patrick McHenry and others.
OBSERVATION - The left continues with inflammatory rhetoric.
***
FBI Portland told local media it is investigating a threat of violence related to the war between Hamas & Israel. They’re concerned about people preparing for violence. Many Muslims & leftists have celebrated the terrorism, some urging for violence here.
OBSERVATION - Cross reference with Terrorism. Of all places, Portland would be ground zero for such violence getting started, given the dominance that Antifa has there.
Terrorism -
I see threats still elevated for lone wolf style attacks with an increased chance of sleeper cell activation once the Gaza ground war phase gets started.
See also CW2 threats in the Portland area for related terror potential.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The Ronald Reagan Carrier Strike Group (CSG) conducted drills with a Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force (JMSDF) frigate in the East China Sea from earlier this week.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Obama was reportedly ‘at the emergency response scene’ after his chef Tafari Campbell drowned near his residence.
According to Judicial Watch, records obtained from the Massachusetts State Police ‘indicate’ that Obama was present for a witness interview.
“[The records] indicate Barack Obama arrived at the emergency response scene via motorcade. A short time later, a cold, wet woman, who was a witness, arrived. The next morning, the eyewitness was interviewed in the Obama residence, again with Barack Obama present,” JudicialWatch revealed.
OBSERVATION - this has generated new speculation that Campbell was killed and not from an accident.
***
Rep Jordan was removed by the republican caucus in a closed door / secret session following his failure to be elected on the third try. Stuck up RINO prigs gave the deep state a victory, but the crisis isn’t over. However, the self righteous RINOS trotted off to a free weekend, with the next attempt to select a new speaker currently scheduled for Monday NIGHT!.
RUMORS have it that the 20 RINOS have an affiliation with FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried and voter mule donations.
Early favorite to replace Jordan is FL Rep Donalds
Biden / Harris Watch –
With all hell breaking out around the world - biden headed to his beach house for the weekend.
***
The noose is closing - House Oversight Committee Chair James Comer, R-Ky., says the panel has obtained bank records showing James and Sara Biden paid Joe Biden $200,000 in the form of a personal check in March, 2018, claiming the document shows proof of the Biden family’s influence-peddling scheme.
Illegal Immigration –
Biden’s deputies are asking Congress for $14 billion extra to help bus illegal migrants up to the U.S. border and onward into hotels in many cities and towns around the nation.
The request is being touted as “border security” even though very few funds would be used to exclude economic migrants. Much of the requested money would be used to help more job-seeking migrants reach the U.S. border, register and release them, and then bus them to hotels, job training, and American workplaces around the United States.
OBSERVATION - this is wrapped up in the emergency funding package for Ukraine and Israel. With unemployment of citizens and these illegals allegedly willing to work for subpar wages, pressures are going to build fast. Add to it that these ‘wages’ are going to require massive social welfare to house and feed these illegals who are essentially being given a ‘green card’. Trump only wanted 8 billion to finish the fence.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Sept 27, 2023
Russia is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine, relying on Russian doctrinal defense in depth to blunt the Ukrainian offensive. However, Russian forces continue increasingly stretched and undermanned, with increasingly insufficient artillery support.
Ukrainian action has forced Russia to move forces laterally to meet the Ukraine advance - thinning critical portions of the line and making them vulnerable to assault.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. Recent attacks indicate the Russia has started to produce its own Shahed drones with Iranian assistance. Russia capable of continued, though limited, attacks in this arena. The majority of Russian strikes are with these Iranian drones. Major targets are grain shipping facilities in the Odesa region as well as trying to hit logistical targets across the rest of the country.
Supplemental cruise missile attacks using old models will be occasionally used to supplement the drones.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is increasingly hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. Ukraine’s mixture of seaborne and airborne drones and anti-ship missiles beginning to render areas more or less off limits to Russia. The fleet is reportedly in the process of redeploying out of Crimea and moving east to Russian bases, about 600 Km further away from the front lines.
Russia is capable of launching small scale attacks in various sectors of company and small sized elements, but any large scale offensive action in the face of the heavy demands from defending against the Ukrainian offensive are essentially nil.
*****
Logistics –
Russia reached a mile stone in the Ukraine war, having now lost more than 5000 tanks in the fight.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures varying between the 50s and 60s with rain in the forecast for starting 25th of October.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russians continue to mindlessly push against the Avdiivka. The burnt out predecessor waves of Russian armored vehicles are literally clogging the pathways so that following vehicles have to push their way through only to get obliterated themselves.
Continued on the Tokmok and Bakhmut fronts. No significant gains for either side.
OUTLOOK -
Rain is fast becoming the critical factor for the war. Both sides will trying to establish positions of tactical superiority before the ground turns to a quagmire. It will be several months before temperatures are cold enough to freeze the ground and allow greater use of armor/tanks off road.
Onset of winter means Russia’s deep game will again focus on Ukraine’s energy grid. Ukraine will focus on Russia’s logistics to make the troops in the trench miserable, under armed and sick.
Of note - Russia has slowed down the drone/missile attacks lately. Perhaps trying to conserve capability to saturate Ukranian air defenses to successfully reach power grid nodes.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
Two American hostages were released from Gaza.
“In response to Qatari efforts, we released two American detainees (a mother and her daughter) for humanitarian reasons, and to prove to the American people and the world that the allegations of Biden and his fascist administration are false allegations that have no basis in truth.”
According to Israeli Officials, the 2 Americans released by Hamas are 59 y/o Yehudit Ra’anan and her 18 y/o Daughter, Nathalie Shathogug who are both from Chicago, Illinois. They were reportedly visiting their mother/grandmother. No word if the Hamas terrorists killed her or not.
Bloomberg reports that the US and European governments are pressuring Israel to delay the ground operation in Gaza to give more time for secret talks mediated by Qatar regarding additional hostage releases.
NOTE - This has been a common delay tactic used by Hamas over the years. I don’t think it is going to work this time.
Also, Qatar is known for harboring Hamas leaders who live in luxury in the capitol of Doha.
Palestinian terrorists in Gaza continued to rain down rockets on Israel’s south and the Israeli Air Force pounded Hamas targets in the Strip on Friday night
It is Sabbath in Israel, leading some to speculate that tomorrow is ‘D’ day for the ground assault.
GENERAL ——————————-
20 trucks carrying food, water, medicine and fuel - have been allowed through the Rafah border crossing from Egypt.
Over 1,400 Israelis (306 soldiers) have been killed, and over 4,600 have been injured.
Nearly 7,000 Rockets have been fired by Hamas toward Southern and Central Israel from Gaza (450+ failed launches inside Gaza), with Lebanon and Syria also firing from the north.
Israel has struck over 2,600 Hamas targets in the Gaza Strip and killed over 1,000 terrorists.
***
The Israeli Minister of Defense, Yoav Gallant announced the plan for a 3-Phased War against Hamas in the Gaza Strip during a Meeting today consisting of Members of the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee:
(Current) Phase 1: A Military Campaign by Fire and later by Tactical Ground Maneuver, the Goal of which will be to Assassinate Operatives and Damage Infrastructure in order to Destroy the Hamas Organization in the Gaza Strip.
Phase 2: Continued Fighting at a Lower Intensity throughout the Gaza Strip and Beyond.
Phase 3: The eventual Creation of a New Security Regime in the Gaza Strip and the Removal of Israel’s Responsibility for Life and Security in the Strip as well as the Creation of a New Safe Reality for the Citizens of Israel.
***
The USS Carney shot down 15 drones and four cruise missiles on Thursday in the span of 9 hours, a U.S. defense official tells Fox News. The Defense Department initially said the warship had taken down ‘several’ drones and three land attack cruise missiles before these full details were released .
GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Terrorists continued to attack and threaten Israel with further rocket attacks overnight. The IDF conducted further discreet ground Ops into Gaza mostly CTR and HVT targeting, whilst the main ground forces continue to prepare for wider offensive Ops.
Total internet outage in northern Gaza, obvious precursor to the start of ground ops.
Reportedly 700,000 gazans have left N. Gaza.
LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Hezbollah continued its attacks on Mount Dov trying to take out Israeli early warning radars using ATGMs and rockets. Israel takes out launching sites.
WEST BANK——————————-
Israeli forces took over the house of Hamas deputy Saleh Al-Arouri (who is abroad) near Ramallah and hung up a banner that reads: “This used to be the home of Saleh Al-Arouri. It is now the headquarters of Abu Nimr - Israeli intelligence.”
INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Clashes in Berlin between pro-Hamas immigrants and German police. Large pro-Hamas protests in other cities around the world.
FORECAST ————————-
Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF) - Getting old already, but the ground assault is still imminent. N Gaza is largely cleared of non-combatants, Israel has its forces poised on the borders and has reportedly gotten the green light.
Hamas propaganda blitz continues with willing global media parroting the claims and cries of hamas. Virtually no reporting on the remaining hostages - a war crime in itself - or the brutal terror attack that started this whole round of violence. Even efforts to double down on the claim that Israel bombed the Gaza hospital - in spite of all the evidence to the contrary - it is one narrative they do not want to let go of.
Iran –
According to Pentagon official and congressional sources, the Iranian approach increases the risk of miscalculation and the outbreak of an unintended regional conflict.
According to a US intelligence assessment, Iran does not currently seek a direct conflict with the United States, BUT that it is ‘looking to ratchet up pressure’ through its proxies.
OBSERVATION - A very dangerous game. Poke the bear too many times and bad things might happen. One factor in Iran’s favor is the mentally challenged US president in the WH. The other factor is that they may engage/be engaged by Israel, which will most likely cause a US attack.
Iraq -
Ain Al-Assad Airbase, Iraq was reportedly targeted in the last hour, unclear if rocket or drone attack at this time.
Lebanon -
See Israel above.