Ping to Threat Matrix 2023!
For historical reference TM2022 link is
https://freerepublic.com/focus/bloggers/4026005/posts?page=1#1
Established in 2001, after the 9/11 attack on America and now in its 22nd year, this thread is designed to identify threats to America, both internal and external, and evaluate the probability of those threats occurring and the extent of potential damage. Discussions may stray into ‘tinfoil’ territory, but the goal is to peel back and confirm information so we can make informed decisions and actions. Incredible as it seems, “tinfoil” conspiracy theories have fast become realities so they can no longer be ignored outright, but must be evaluated and compared to current events.
2022 has been “historic”:
- Record inflation
- Record illegal immigration
- Record crime
- Record gas prices
- Record market losses not seen since 1871.
- U.S. housing market is experiencing its second-biggest home price correction of the post-World War II era.
- Unprecedented prime lending rate increases.
I expect 2023 to be even worse as we are facing:
- The potential for a serious and deep recession
- Further movement towards implementing the goals of the WEF via its “global reset”
- Combat in Ukraine that could spill out into other parts of Europe
- Russian nuclear threats
- China making a move on Taiwan – breaking analysis
- Israel and Iran finally directly going at it.
- Other political turmoil growing globally over a wide range of issues.
- Potential for a wide variety of Black Swan events to create even greater problems.
It has been my pleasure to continue this thread over the past few years. This thread hopefully is continuing the goals of when it started.
For those who care, my posts reflect my scanning of the interwebs to provide me with early warning concerning factors that can endanger my life and family. Yes, I’m what many would call a “prepper”, and proudly accept that characterization.
How can something happening half way around the world affect me personally? Wuhan virus, my friend is but one recent example. I noted it in TM Dec 2019 and was prepared when chaos hit in 2020.
Other events have secondary and tertiary affects that reach us via shortages and inflation – fossil fuel prices are the most common, as well as economic impacts. I simply share news items and often my opinions that shape my actions and preparations.
My posts are broken down into specific topics and regions. I highlight and evaluative opensource reports in those areas in regard to how it will affect the US. Sometimes it feels like trying to drink from a fire hose – even more so following 2022.
So buckle up for the ride. This is an open thread that I want to continue as a clearing house of tidbits of intelligence contributed by the FR community so that we are all aware of what’s happening and what the impacts of those events will be. Knowledge is power
Please add 2023 to the title, though the coffee was working, my fingers were not
The path our so-called leaders have taken America and her People since 911 has not been for the faint of heart. May God watch over America and her People and keep all safe in this New Year.
Happy New Year 2023 (or at least I hope it will be ‘happy’ and not in the way the WEF defines ‘happy’)
If you want on the PING list, just let me know.
OVERVIEW -
I have a strong feeling that in 2023 we will look back to 2022 as the good old days. Too many things coming together that are bad.
Speaking of bad, many of the vectors I was concerned about and watching and converging in the latter half of 2022 didn’t synchronize up. This doesn’t mean they are invalid. It does mean that they pushed into 2023. We can’t dodge them forever.
GGR/WEF
Oxford has adopted an ordinance that tries to force residents into 15-minute enclaves. Climate Depot has the story:
Vision News, November 30th
Oxfordshire County Council yesterday approved plans to lock residents into one of six zones to ‘save the planet’ from global warming. The latest stage in the ’15 minute city’ agenda is to place electronic gates on key roads in and out of the city, confining residents to their own neighbourhoods.
Under the new scheme if residents want to leave their zone they will need permission from the Council who gets to decide who is worthy of freedom and who isn’t. Under the new scheme residents will be allowed to leave their zone a maximum of 100 days per year, but in order to even gain this every resident will have to register their car details with the council who will then track their movements via smart cameras round the city.
Every resident will be required to register their car with the County Council who will then monitor how many times they leave their district via number plate recognition cameras.
If an Oxford resident drives out of his neighborhood more than 100 times per year, he will be fined 70 pounds.
There is much more at the Climate Depot link. You might expect that Oxford, as a university town, would be low-IQ. But the disease is spreading:
[T]he 15 minute city is not just Oxford, but turning up in Brisbane, Melbourne, Barcelona, Paris, Portland and Buenos Aires. It’s everywhere.
OBSERVATION - A little old on the news side, but gives a peek behind the curtain on just how totalitarian the WEF models for our new “society” are going to be. One of the past stated goals by the globalists is to concentrate populations in cities, and this British plan is just one variant. While living in sacramento kalifornia, one of the big design plans for their light rail network was something similar, with stops serving clustered communities and retail, altering it from its current, standard urban/suburban large city structure.
Wuhan virus –
This year more efforts appear to be shifting to a search to pin the adverse affects onto the mRNA jabs. In 2022 we saw increasing, peer reviewed articles from respectable medical sources making the link and expect to see more this year. This is important because it demonstrates fraud on the part of Pfizer/Moderna and the CDC – fraud that can strip away the legal protection granted from civil lawsuits against those companies.
I expect that Florida’s lawsuit will establish fraudulent behavior by Pfizer and Moderna.
Economy –
Timing and severity of the inbound recession of 2023 are still being bantered about by many economists and money managers. One factor that may play a key role is the recent “Inflation Reduction Act”. Buried in this act is a new 1% excise tax on stock buybacks. What this will do is affect stock buybacks, which are still the primary means by which equities are kept afloat by major corporations. Over the past decade, buybacks have been funded by money borrowed from the Fed at near-zero interest – essentially free money. Now, the easy money party is about to end.
The 1% excise tax added on top of a 5% Fed funds rate creates a 6% millstone on any money borrowed to finance future buybacks. This cost is going to be far too high and buybacks will falter. Meaning, stock markets will also stop, and drop. It will likely take two or three months before the tax and the rate hikes create a visible effect on markets. This would put our time frame for contraction around March or April of 2023.
Energy and food price inflation and shortages remain a domestic concern over the near term. Natural gas storage in the Western U.S. is at its lowest level since 2009. Food prices increased significantly in November, with eggs seeing the largest price increase in four decades.
While gasoline prices have dropped in recent months, analysts expect prices to again exceed the $4/gallon mark – though not attaining the record $5+/gallon of 2022. However, global events can quickly change the equation, particularly when supplies are interrupted – such as would happen if China/Taiwan or Israel/Iran kicks off. Another point is oil and energy prices are being kept down because of China’s Zero Covid policy, which is slowing their economy to a crawl and reducing oil usage to a minimum. A reopening by early next year is on the way. As soon as China reopens, oil prices will skyrocket once again on the global market.
Invasion of Illegals –
2023 will not be good for the country as illegals pour across the border, creating law enforcement and social services crisis’ – resulting in lower income Americans losing services. Violence and property crimes will skyrocket as these illegals fail to find work and start taking advantage of the lack of will to deport. We are already past a threshold where we could find and deport these illegals.
Further expect more pushes by democrats (with help from turncoat republicans in both houses) to provide some degree of legalization of most of the illegals. Could be facing as much as 25 - 50% more entering the country.
Biden / Harris watch –
Biden’s health is still questionable and he may become incapacitated this next year, either physically or mentally. This would create a crisis in govt as dems try to position someone into the WH other than Harris who is electable for 2024
CW2/Domestic violence –
Antifa et al will continue small scale supporting counter protests as well as community outreach. It will continue to identify more lethal and intimidating tactics and grow its core of trained and ideologically ‘pure’ membership.
NLT than the 2024 campaign season rush, biden DoJ/FBI will make a move to indict and arrest Trump – likely in a very showy manner in order to maximize the shock to Trump followers and attempt to instigate a violent reaction by the right.
I believe that the govt will increase its intrusion into spying on citizens, especially those identified as ‘white, Christian nationalists domestic terrorists”. Agent Provocateurs will be active in groups like the 3 percenters, etc to encourage some act of violence to justify a nation wide crackdown. This may result in pushback from Red states and leaders as well - increasing the chances of conflict of some kind - likely legal push back. This risk will increase as 2024 comes rushing in.
CANCEL CULTURE FRONT
Twitter Files aside, the other components of Big Tech are likely to continue to conduct government direction cancelling of regime opponents. DoJ/FBI will simply ignore their unconsitiutional actions and continue as is with MSM coverage. This will get worse once again as the 2024 elections come down.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Mostly stalemate in congress as republicans manage to muster opposition in the house to stop the biden regime agenda. Senate republican turncoats in the Senate will continue to be more democrat than republican.
Democrats and the rest of the swamp will pursue Trump with every means available in order to discredit him and render him ineligible to run for the WH again. Level of effort will shame a lot of what the Stasi did in the past. This will also continue to spill over onto Trump supporters.
Domestic / International Terror (modified)-
Hard to judge at this time. Should things go sideways, I expect foreigners (principally illegals) to take advantage and have sleeper cells activate.
Latest ruminting on the string of power substation vandalisms. Some suggest that environmentalists are doing the damage. Another possible source among many potential actors out there.
China – NEW info
WAR WATCH
I have added a WAR WATCH to China has there has developed a very high possibility of launching some sort of attempt on Taiwan this year and in particular, the next 30 days, around the Chinese New Year time frame. The most likely actions is for China to start some level of blockade in around. China will then have roughly 60 days until the next ideal window for an amphibious landing on Taiwan opens up in April. A Chinese blockade during this period would force Taiwan to use up most of its reserve resources. Taiwan probably has about a month’s supply of oil and natural gas, forcing Taiwanese concession without a major war.
Reasons for the increase in the potential timetable by China include:
- Potential of a major recession in the US beginning as early as this spring.
- Success of the ‘soft’ blockade in Aug 2022 after pelosi’s visit thru blanketing the areas around Taiwan with ‘exercise’ and live fire zones.
- Increasing miliary preparedness by other western pacific nations - Japan, S Korea, Philippines, Australia and New Zealand – which would make a military move at a later date more problematical.
- China may believe that it currently has adequate naval, and air capabilities to counter any US efforts to thwart China’s plans
Chinese strategic goals –
1. Obtain surrender by Taiwan with little or no combat
2. Obtain surrender by Taiwan by direct assault if necessary (most dangerous course of action – MDCOA).
China is fully capable of;
- imposing a blockade at any time of its choosing.
- Launching air, sea and missile attacks at any time of its choosing
- Has range of conventional and nuclear options available at any time.
- Launching an amphibious assault as early as April 2023, giving the China the time to assemble the assault forces and transports necessary
Current indicators
1. Dramatically increased air and naval exercises around Taiwan, some even being announced as ‘strike’ exercises.
2. Chinese naval exercises close to key US bases in Guam and Okinawa.
3. Chinese purchases of cheap Russia oil and storing in stockpiles
4. Increased cooperative exercises with Russia and improving relations between Xi and Putin.
5. Aggressive air intercepts of US reconnaissance aircraft.
Chinese Economic situation -
China’s factory activity shrank for the third straight month in December and at the sharpest pace in nearly three years as Covid infections swept through production lines across the country after Beijing’s abrupt reversal of anti-virus measures. The official purchasing managers’ index (PMI) fell to 47.0 from 48.0 in November, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said on Saturday. Economists in a Reuters poll had expected the PMI to come in at 48.0. The 50-point mark separates contraction from growth on a monthly basis.
OBSERVATION – War often can be used to distract and modify economic woes as a means to jump start the economy as well as a unifier of the country to detract from economic woes.
North/South Korea –
NK popped a few short ranged missiles into the sea for a new years celebration
I don’t think NK has this miniaturized nuclear weapon – yet. I suspect that the next underground test will involve testing this more deployable device.
According to the official Korean Central News Agency, Kim stressed the need to secure “overwhelming military power” to defend North Korea’s sovereignty and security at a recent meeting of the ruling Workers’ Party. Kim accused South Korea of being “hell-bent on imprudent and dangerous arms build-up’’ and trumpeting its preparations for war with Pyongyang.
That, the North Korean leader said, highlights the need to mass-produce battlefield tactical nuclear weapons and calls for “an exponential increase of the country’s nuclear arsenal,’’ KCNA reported.
Kim also said that the United States and South Korea were trying to “isolate and stifle” the North with US nuclear strike assets constantly deployed in the South, calling it “unprecedented in human history.”
He pledged to develop another ICBM system “whose main mission is quick nuclear counter-strike” under a plan to boost the country’s nuclear force, KCNA said.
OBSERVATION – The military build up Kim is calling for is not cheap and the NK economy is hardly capable of supporting. I think what is key here is that knowing NK no longer has a credible military threat on the ground, he is betting the ranch that this could be offset by a nuclear deterrence. Again, historical perspective – when NK began its development towards nuclear weapons and delivery systems it was common for the rockets to blow up on the pads or shortly after launch. Those failures are now a small percentage and NK has demonstrated the ability to place an object in polar orbit as well as its newest missile being capable of carrying multiple warheads to any location in the US. What is standing in his way IMHO, is a demonstratable nuclear warhead small enough to be carried by his rockets and in the case of a strike against the US, a survivable reentry mode to protect the warhead. NK’s next underground test may well be of such a miniaturized warhead.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - The “three days to conquer Ukraine” continues after fighting started on Feb 24th, 2022.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russia is currently working to (re)assemble a military force capable of resuming the offensive in the Donbas while at the same time trying to make defensive preparations for an expected Ukrainian offensive as well. Suspected goal for the start of offensive operations is latter half of January at the earliest.
At present, it is capable of very local offensive actions as in the ongoing fighting around Bahkmut and Donetsk.
Russia is also capable of launching more cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure -primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.
********
Russian President Vladimir Putin devoted his annual New Year’s address on Saturday to rallying the Russian people behind his troops fighting in Ukraine and pledging victory over Ukrainian “neo-Nazis” and a West supposedly intent on “destroying Russia”. Its soldiers, he said, were fighting for “our motherland, truth and justice ... so that Russia’s security can be guaranteed”.
In the nine-minute address - the longest of his 22 years in power - Putin targeted those opposed to the conflict, a personal crusade that now defines his tenure and Russia’s relations with the world.
RUMINT - Danish military intelligence suggests drug-induced megalomania may have influenced Putin to invade Ukraine. The Russian president Vladimir Putin was likely influenced by medication when he decided to launch a war in Ukraine. In an interview with Berlingske, the head of Russia analysis at FE, the Danish Defence Intelligence Service, provides some rare insights into what we currently know about Putin – and what may eventually lead him to lose power.
»Delusions of grandeur are one of the known side effects of the type of hormone treatment that he was on,« Joakim states. »It’s not something I can say for certain, but I think it did affect his decisions when he launched the war in Ukraine. «
The man making this stunning observation is not just anyone. Joakim heads the Russia analysis team at FE, the Danish Defence Intelligence Service. For security reasons he is not allowed to present himself in photos or using his last name. It wasn’t poor intelligence but Putin’s ideological convictions that led Russian soldiers to believe they would be greeted with flowers. (H/T GOPJ)
NOTE- putin’s health has been a common point of issue of late. Recent public appearances suggest he is suffering from some kind of serious medical condition – thus he has been limiting and controlling them. Severe, life threatening illnesses by itself and standard medications taken to combat it are more than capable of altering mental conditions and stability. Serious for continued heavy Russian losses in Ukraine and an even more dangerous potential for limited nuclear use, particularly if the reportedly planned winter offensive fails.
Logistics –
- Russia delivered advanced jet fighters to Iran as part of a likely deal for more drones and probably Iranian constructed short to intermediate range ballistic missiles.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Nasty mix of rain and snow throughout most of the 10 day forecast with cold temperatures.
24 HOUR ROUND UP – QUICK CATCH-UP
Additional cruise missile and drone attacks, mostly focused on Kyiv. Front in the east is largely unchanged
Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
Ukraine forces continue to pressure the Russian lines NW of Svatove with Russian attempting to conduct spoiling attacks.
Donetsk Oblast ——
Fighting continues both north and west of Donetsk.
OUTLOOK ——
I know I’ve said Russia is running low on its missile stockpile, but continue to be surprised by these cruise missle attacks. The assessment remains though because
1. Russia has been relying heavily on Iranian drones
2. Russia has been using up a large stockpile of S300 missiles that have been converted to ground attack modes
3. These missile barrages are substantially smaller and are occurring at longer intervals.
Build up for a winter offensive by both sides continues and recent fighting potentially reflects maneuvering into better positions to either launch or defend from an offensive.
Increased focus on the timing of a Russian offensive has generally focused on the latter part of January to early February. Recent interactions between Xi and putin and the War Watch on China (see above), may suggest that the window for the Russian kickoff could coincide with the Chinese New Year. If China takes action against Taiwan in that time frame and Russia manages to get out of the shoots for its offensive – this two front action could freeze western response, giving both China and Russia an opportunity to gain the momentum.
See Belarus below – a Russia or a combined Russian/Belarus attack into N Ukraine is still judged to be unlikely at this time.
Belarus -
Recent intelligence assessments suggest that Belarus’ artillery stockpiles have been essentially tapped out by Russia. This would indicate that a Belarus/Russia invasion from the north is less likely.
SERBIA / KOSOVO -
There is a moderate chance of some degree of fighting in N Kosovo sometime in 2023 – becoming very likely if Russia launches its offensive. At current, the near term look is continued high tensions but no overt military action by Serbia.
Israel –
It appears that Israel may well have a stable govt following a half dozen parliamentary elections over the course of the past couple years, with Netanyahu returning to the PM slot ahead of a much farther right coalition.
Pretty much the standard year in its fight against Hamas, PJI and Hezbollah. Iranian support for these terrorists elements improved over the course of the year as sanctions were lowered in an attempt to lure it to the nuclear barganing table. Nearly routine IAF strikes on Hezbollah facilities in Syria continued. Israel worked delicately with Russia to avoid their troops in the way of IAF airstrikes.
Iran –
Iran has been busy, leading the west in circles with their negations on nuclear weapons, getting sanctions dropped, while at the same time openly ignoring others, such as oil and arms sales. Besides Israel/Hezbollah, Iran continued to support the Houthi rebels and recently the Russians with munitions.
Iran made significant strides forward in their nuclear program, now capable of 90% purity for uranium, essential to manufacture a nuclear weapon. Its trade deal with Russia calls for increased ‘technical’ assistance which some suspect may be linked to the development of a nuke and a deliverable warhead. Its military complex has been working overtime to develop new weapons for itself as well as sales.
Protests rekindled over the past few days as anniversaries of those killed by the regime came around and the govt cracked down by killing more protestors.
Syria -
Civil war continues in the country with direct outside activity by Russia, Turkey, Iran and the US. Russia’s presence has dropped significantly due to Ukraine while Turkey has gotten more aggressive against all comers and in particular the Kurds in N Syria.
Turkey -
Turkey has been playing on both sides of the fence lately. Siding with NATO as far as access in/out of the Black Sea goes, supplying drones to Ukraine while OTOH keeping comfy with Russia on side deals such as an outlet for its natural gas and purchasing the S400 air defense missle system . It has also reached out to Israel to mend some fences, likely in return for more technological benefits.
Turkey has also been very aggressive this year, particularly towards kurds in Syria and Iraq, as well as its perennial enemies the Greeks.
Its economy has been hit hard this year with inflation in the 80% range, making military actions more costly. The success of its drones in Ukraine (as well as in 2021 in Syria, Armenia and Africa) has given that sector of the economy a significant boost.
India -
Tensions built up with China in the disputed Himalayan region. India has progressively built up its military in the region to counter Chinese challenges.
Armenia/Azerbaijan -
Azerbaijan continued to take advantage of Armenia’s weakness due to lack of support from Russia. Ukraine has altered the balance of power in the region and made it more prone to war.
Happy New Year 2023 (or at least I hope it will be ‘happy’ and not in the way the WEF defines ‘happy’)
If you want on the PING list, just let me know.
OVERVIEW -
I have a strong feeling that in 2023 we will look back to 2022 as the good old days. Too many things coming together that are bad.
Speaking of bad, many of the vectors I was concerned about and watching and converging in the latter half of 2022 didn’t synchronize up. This doesn’t mean they are invalid. It does mean that they pushed into 2023. We can’t dodge them forever.
GGR/WEF
Oxford has adopted an ordinance that tries to force residents into 15-minute enclaves. Climate Depot has the story:
Vision News, November 30th
Oxfordshire County Council yesterday approved plans to lock residents into one of six zones to ‘save the planet’ from global warming. The latest stage in the ’15 minute city’ agenda is to place electronic gates on key roads in and out of the city, confining residents to their own neighbourhoods.
Under the new scheme if residents want to leave their zone they will need permission from the Council who gets to decide who is worthy of freedom and who isn’t. Under the new scheme residents will be allowed to leave their zone a maximum of 100 days per year, but in order to even gain this every resident will have to register their car details with the council who will then track their movements via smart cameras round the city.
Every resident will be required to register their car with the County Council who will then monitor how many times they leave their district via number plate recognition cameras.
If an Oxford resident drives out of his neighborhood more than 100 times per year, he will be fined 70 pounds.
There is much more at the Climate Depot link. You might expect that Oxford, as a university town, would be low-IQ. But the disease is spreading:
[T]he 15 minute city is not just Oxford, but turning up in Brisbane, Melbourne, Barcelona, Paris, Portland and Buenos Aires. It’s everywhere.
OBSERVATION - A little old on the news side, but gives a peek behind the curtain on just how totalitarian the WEF models for our new “society” are going to be. One of the past stated goals by the globalists is to concentrate populations in cities, and this British plan is just one variant. While living in sacramento kalifornia, one of the big design plans for their light rail network was something similar, with stops serving clustered communities and retail, altering it from its current, standard urban/suburban large city structure.
Wuhan virus –
This year more efforts appear to be shifting to a search to pin the adverse affects onto the mRNA jabs. In 2022 we saw increasing, peer reviewed articles from respectable medical sources making the link and expect to see more this year. This is important because it demonstrates fraud on the part of Pfizer/Moderna and the CDC – fraud that can strip away the legal protection granted from civil lawsuits against those companies.
I expect that Florida’s lawsuit will establish fraudulent behavior by Pfizer and Moderna.
Economy –
Timing and severity of the inbound recession of 2023 are still being bantered about by many economists and money managers. One factor that may play a key role is the recent “Inflation Reduction Act”. Buried in this act is a new 1% excise tax on stock buybacks. What this will do is affect stock buybacks, which are still the primary means by which equities are kept afloat by major corporations. Over the past decade, buybacks have been funded by money borrowed from the Fed at near-zero interest – essentially free money. Now, the easy money party is about to end.
The 1% excise tax added on top of a 5% Fed funds rate creates a 6% millstone on any money borrowed to finance future buybacks. This cost is going to be far too high and buybacks will falter. Meaning, stock markets will also stop, and drop. It will likely take two or three months before the tax and the rate hikes create a visible effect on markets. This would put our time frame for contraction around March or April of 2023.
Energy and food price inflation and shortages remain a domestic concern over the near term. Natural gas storage in the Western U.S. is at its lowest level since 2009. Food prices increased significantly in November, with eggs seeing the largest price increase in four decades.
While gasoline prices have dropped in recent months, analysts expect prices to again exceed the $4/gallon mark – though not attaining the record $5+/gallon of 2022. However, global events can quickly change the equation, particularly when supplies are interrupted – such as would happen if China/Taiwan or Israel/Iran kicks off. Another point is oil and energy prices are being kept down because of China’s Zero Covid policy, which is slowing their economy to a crawl and reducing oil usage to a minimum. A reopening by early next year is on the way. As soon as China reopens, oil prices will skyrocket once again on the global market.
Invasion of Illegals –
2023 will not be good for the country as illegals pour across the border, creating law enforcement and social services crisis’ – resulting in lower income Americans losing services. Violence and property crimes will skyrocket as these illegals fail to find work and start taking advantage of the lack of will to deport. We are already past a threshold where we could find and deport these illegals.
Further expect more pushes by democrats (with help from turncoat republicans in both houses) to provide some degree of legalization of most of the illegals. Could be facing as much as 25 - 50% more entering the country.
Biden / Harris watch –
Biden’s health is still questionable and he may become incapacitated this next year, either physically or mentally. This would create a crisis in govt as dems try to position someone into the WH other than Harris who is electable for 2024
CW2/Domestic violence –
Antifa et al will continue small scale supporting counter protests as well as community outreach. It will continue to identify more lethal and intimidating tactics and grow its core of trained and ideologically ‘pure’ membership.
NLT than the 2024 campaign season rush, biden DoJ/FBI will make a move to indict and arrest Trump – likely in a very showy manner in order to maximize the shock to Trump followers and attempt to instigate a violent reaction by the right.
I believe that the govt will increase its intrusion into spying on citizens, especially those identified as ‘white, Christian nationalists domestic terrorists”. Agent Provocateurs will be active in groups like the 3 percenters, etc to encourage some act of violence to justify a nation wide crackdown. This may result in pushback from Red states and leaders as well - increasing the chances of conflict of some kind - likely legal push back. This risk will increase as 2024 comes rushing in.
CANCEL CULTURE FRONT
Twitter Files aside, the other components of Big Tech are likely to continue to conduct government direction cancelling of regime opponents. DoJ/FBI will simply ignore their unconsitiutional actions and continue as is with MSM coverage. This will get worse once again as the 2024 elections come down.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Mostly stalemate in congress as republicans manage to muster opposition in the house to stop the biden regime agenda. Senate republican turncoats in the Senate will continue to be more democrat than republican.
Democrats and the rest of the swamp will pursue Trump with every means available in order to discredit him and render him ineligible to run for the WH again. Level of effort will shame a lot of what the Stasi did in the past. This will also continue to spill over onto Trump supporters.
Domestic / International Terror (modified)-
Hard to judge at this time. Should things go sideways, I expect foreigners (principally illegals) to take advantage and have sleeper cells activate.
Latest ruminting on the string of power substation vandalisms. Some suggest that environmentalists are doing the damage. Another possible source among many potential actors out there.
China – NEW info
WAR WATCH
I have added a WAR WATCH to China has there has developed a very high possibility of launching some sort of attempt on Taiwan this year and in particular, the next 30 days, around the Chinese New Year time frame. The most likely actions is for China to start some level of blockade in around. China will then have roughly 60 days until the next ideal window for an amphibious landing on Taiwan opens up in April. A Chinese blockade during this period would force Taiwan to use up most of its reserve resources. Taiwan probably has about a month’s supply of oil and natural gas, forcing Taiwanese concession without a major war.
Reasons for the increase in the potential timetable by China include:
- Potential of a major recession in the US beginning as early as this spring.
- Success of the ‘soft’ blockade in Aug 2022 after pelosi’s visit thru blanketing the areas around Taiwan with ‘exercise’ and live fire zones.
- Increasing miliary preparedness by other western pacific nations - Japan, S Korea, Philippines, Australia and New Zealand – which would make a military move at a later date more problematical.
- China may believe that it currently has adequate naval, and air capabilities to counter any US efforts to thwart China’s plans
Chinese strategic goals –
1. Obtain surrender by Taiwan with little or no combat
2. Obtain surrender by Taiwan by direct assault if necessary (most dangerous course of action – MDCOA).
China is fully capable of;
- imposing a blockade at any time of its choosing.
- Launching air, sea and missile attacks at any time of its choosing
- Has range of conventional and nuclear options available at any time.
- Launching an amphibious assault as early as April 2023, giving the China the time to assemble the assault forces and transports necessary
Current indicators
1. Dramatically increased air and naval exercises around Taiwan, some even being announced as ‘strike’ exercises.
2. Chinese naval exercises close to key US bases in Guam and Okinawa.
3. Chinese purchases of cheap Russia oil and storing in stockpiles
4. Increased cooperative exercises with Russia and improving relations between Xi and Putin.
5. Aggressive air intercepts of US reconnaissance aircraft.
Chinese Economic situation -
China’s factory activity shrank for the third straight month in December and at the sharpest pace in nearly three years as Covid infections swept through production lines across the country after Beijing’s abrupt reversal of anti-virus measures. The official purchasing managers’ index (PMI) fell to 47.0 from 48.0 in November, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said on Saturday. Economists in a Reuters poll had expected the PMI to come in at 48.0. The 50-point mark separates contraction from growth on a monthly basis.
OBSERVATION – War often can be used to distract and modify economic woes as a means to jump start the economy as well as a unifier of the country to detract from economic woes.
North/South Korea –
NK popped a few short ranged missiles into the sea for a new years celebration
I don’t think NK has this miniaturized nuclear weapon – yet. I suspect that the next underground test will involve testing this more deployable device.
According to the official Korean Central News Agency, Kim stressed the need to secure “overwhelming military power” to defend North Korea’s sovereignty and security at a recent meeting of the ruling Workers’ Party. Kim accused South Korea of being “hell-bent on imprudent and dangerous arms build-up’’ and trumpeting its preparations for war with Pyongyang.
That, the North Korean leader said, highlights the need to mass-produce battlefield tactical nuclear weapons and calls for “an exponential increase of the country’s nuclear arsenal,’’ KCNA reported.
Kim also said that the United States and South Korea were trying to “isolate and stifle” the North with US nuclear strike assets constantly deployed in the South, calling it “unprecedented in human history.”
He pledged to develop another ICBM system “whose main mission is quick nuclear counter-strike” under a plan to boost the country’s nuclear force, KCNA said.
OBSERVATION – The military build up Kim is calling for is not cheap and the NK economy is hardly capable of supporting. I think what is key here is that knowing NK no longer has a credible military threat on the ground, he is betting the ranch that this could be offset by a nuclear deterrence. Again, historical perspective – when NK began its development towards nuclear weapons and delivery systems it was common for the rockets to blow up on the pads or shortly after launch. Those failures are now a small percentage and NK has demonstrated the ability to place an object in polar orbit as well as its newest missile being capable of carrying multiple warheads to any location in the US. What is standing in his way IMHO, is a demonstratable nuclear warhead small enough to be carried by his rockets and in the case of a strike against the US, a survivable reentry mode to protect the warhead. NK’s next underground test may well be of such a miniaturized warhead.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - The “three days to conquer Ukraine” continues after fighting started on Feb 24th, 2022.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russia is currently working to (re)assemble a military force capable of resuming the offensive in the Donbas while at the same time trying to make defensive preparations for an expected Ukrainian offensive as well. Suspected goal for the start of offensive operations is latter half of January at the earliest.
At present, it is capable of very local offensive actions as in the ongoing fighting around Bahkmut and Donetsk.
Russia is also capable of launching more cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure -primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.
********
Russian President Vladimir Putin devoted his annual New Year’s address on Saturday to rallying the Russian people behind his troops fighting in Ukraine and pledging victory over Ukrainian “neo-Nazis” and a West supposedly intent on “destroying Russia”. Its soldiers, he said, were fighting for “our motherland, truth and justice ... so that Russia’s security can be guaranteed”.
In the nine-minute address - the longest of his 22 years in power - Putin targeted those opposed to the conflict, a personal crusade that now defines his tenure and Russia’s relations with the world.
RUMINT - Danish military intelligence suggests drug-induced megalomania may have influenced Putin to invade Ukraine. The Russian president Vladimir Putin was likely influenced by medication when he decided to launch a war in Ukraine. In an interview with Berlingske, the head of Russia analysis at FE, the Danish Defence Intelligence Service, provides some rare insights into what we currently know about Putin – and what may eventually lead him to lose power.
»Delusions of grandeur are one of the known side effects of the type of hormone treatment that he was on,« Joakim states. »It’s not something I can say for certain, but I think it did affect his decisions when he launched the war in Ukraine. «
The man making this stunning observation is not just anyone. Joakim heads the Russia analysis team at FE, the Danish Defence Intelligence Service. For security reasons he is not allowed to present himself in photos or using his last name. It wasn’t poor intelligence but Putin’s ideological convictions that led Russian soldiers to believe they would be greeted with flowers. (H/T GOPJ)
NOTE- putin’s health has been a common point of issue of late. Recent public appearances suggest he is suffering from some kind of serious medical condition – thus he has been limiting and controlling them. Severe, life threatening illnesses by itself and standard medications taken to combat it are more than capable of altering mental conditions and stability. Serious for continued heavy Russian losses in Ukraine and an even more dangerous potential for limited nuclear use, particularly if the reportedly planned winter offensive fails.
Logistics –
- Russia delivered advanced jet fighters to Iran as part of a likely deal for more drones and probably Iranian constructed short to intermediate range ballistic missiles.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Nasty mix of rain and snow throughout most of the 10 day forecast with cold temperatures.
24 HOUR ROUND UP – QUICK CATCH-UP
Additional cruise missile and drone attacks, mostly focused on Kyiv. Front in the east is largely unchanged
Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
Ukraine forces continue to pressure the Russian lines NW of Svatove with Russian attempting to conduct spoiling attacks.
Donetsk Oblast ——
Fighting continues both north and west of Donetsk.
OUTLOOK ——
I know I’ve said Russia is running low on its missile stockpile, but continue to be surprised by these cruise missle attacks. The assessment remains though because
1. Russia has been relying heavily on Iranian drones
2. Russia has been using up a large stockpile of S300 missiles that have been converted to ground attack modes
3. These missile barrages are substantially smaller and are occurring at longer intervals.
Build up for a winter offensive by both sides continues and recent fighting potentially reflects maneuvering into better positions to either launch or defend from an offensive.
Increased focus on the timing of a Russian offensive has generally focused on the latter part of January to early February. Recent interactions between Xi and putin and the War Watch on China (see above), may suggest that the window for the Russian kickoff could coincide with the Chinese New Year. If China takes action against Taiwan in that time frame and Russia manages to get out of the shoots for its offensive – this two front action could freeze western response, giving both China and Russia an opportunity to gain the momentum.
See Belarus below – a Russia or a combined Russian/Belarus attack into N Ukraine is still judged to be unlikely at this time.
Belarus -
Recent intelligence assessments suggest that Belarus’ artillery stockpiles have been essentially tapped out by Russia. This would indicate that a Belarus/Russia invasion from the north is less likely.
SERBIA / KOSOVO -
There is a moderate chance of some degree of fighting in N Kosovo sometime in 2023 – becoming very likely if Russia launches its offensive. At current, the near term look is continued high tensions but no overt military action by Serbia.
Israel –
It appears that Israel may well have a stable govt following a half dozen parliamentary elections over the course of the past couple years, with Netanyahu returning to the PM slot ahead of a much farther right coalition.
Pretty much the standard year in its fight against Hamas, PJI and Hezbollah. Iranian support for these terrorists elements improved over the course of the year as sanctions were lowered in an attempt to lure it to the nuclear barganing table. Nearly routine IAF strikes on Hezbollah facilities in Syria continued. Israel worked delicately with Russia to avoid their troops in the way of IAF airstrikes.
Iran –
Iran has been busy, leading the west in circles with their negations on nuclear weapons, getting sanctions dropped, while at the same time openly ignoring others, such as oil and arms sales. Besides Israel/Hezbollah, Iran continued to support the Houthi rebels and recently the Russians with munitions.
Iran made significant strides forward in their nuclear program, now capable of 90% purity for uranium, essential to manufacture a nuclear weapon. Its trade deal with Russia calls for increased ‘technical’ assistance which some suspect may be linked to the development of a nuke and a deliverable warhead. Its military complex has been working overtime to develop new weapons for itself as well as sales.
Protests rekindled over the past few days as anniversaries of those killed by the regime came around and the govt cracked down by killing more protestors.
Syria -
Civil war continues in the country with direct outside activity by Russia, Turkey, Iran and the US. Russia’s presence has dropped significantly due to Ukraine while Turkey has gotten more aggressive against all comers and in particular the Kurds in N Syria.
Turkey -
Turkey has been playing on both sides of the fence lately. Siding with NATO as far as access in/out of the Black Sea goes, supplying drones to Ukraine while OTOH keeping comfy with Russia on side deals such as an outlet for its natural gas and purchasing the S400 air defense missle system . It has also reached out to Israel to mend some fences, likely in return for more technological benefits.
Turkey has also been very aggressive this year, particularly towards kurds in Syria and Iraq, as well as its perennial enemies the Greeks.
Its economy has been hit hard this year with inflation in the 80% range, making military actions more costly. The success of its drones in Ukraine (as well as in 2021 in Syria, Armenia and Africa) has given that sector of the economy a significant boost.
India -
Tensions built up with China in the disputed Himalayan region. India has progressively built up its military in the region to counter Chinese challenges.
Armenia/Azerbaijan -
Azerbaijan continued to take advantage of Armenia’s weakness due to lack of support from Russia. Ukraine has altered the balance of power in the region and made it more prone to war.
Thanks for all of your work, Godzilla. Thanks to all posters.
The US Threat Matrix is this:
The Biden Regime and all his lickspittle agencies,
All of the ‘economic’ and asylum invaders entering this country by the millions,
The US Court System, and
Main Stream Media.