Happy New Year 2023 (or at least I hope it will be ‘happy’ and not in the way the WEF defines ‘happy’)
If you want on the PING list, just let me know.
OVERVIEW -
I have a strong feeling that in 2023 we will look back to 2022 as the good old days. Too many things coming together that are bad.
Speaking of bad, many of the vectors I was concerned about and watching and converging in the latter half of 2022 didn’t synchronize up. This doesn’t mean they are invalid. It does mean that they pushed into 2023. We can’t dodge them forever.
GGR/WEF
Oxford has adopted an ordinance that tries to force residents into 15-minute enclaves. Climate Depot has the story:
Vision News, November 30th
Oxfordshire County Council yesterday approved plans to lock residents into one of six zones to ‘save the planet’ from global warming. The latest stage in the ’15 minute city’ agenda is to place electronic gates on key roads in and out of the city, confining residents to their own neighbourhoods.
Under the new scheme if residents want to leave their zone they will need permission from the Council who gets to decide who is worthy of freedom and who isn’t. Under the new scheme residents will be allowed to leave their zone a maximum of 100 days per year, but in order to even gain this every resident will have to register their car details with the council who will then track their movements via smart cameras round the city.
Every resident will be required to register their car with the County Council who will then monitor how many times they leave their district via number plate recognition cameras.
If an Oxford resident drives out of his neighborhood more than 100 times per year, he will be fined 70 pounds.
There is much more at the Climate Depot link. You might expect that Oxford, as a university town, would be low-IQ. But the disease is spreading:
[T]he 15 minute city is not just Oxford, but turning up in Brisbane, Melbourne, Barcelona, Paris, Portland and Buenos Aires. It’s everywhere.
OBSERVATION - A little old on the news side, but gives a peek behind the curtain on just how totalitarian the WEF models for our new “society” are going to be. One of the past stated goals by the globalists is to concentrate populations in cities, and this British plan is just one variant. While living in sacramento kalifornia, one of the big design plans for their light rail network was something similar, with stops serving clustered communities and retail, altering it from its current, standard urban/suburban large city structure.
Wuhan virus –
This year more efforts appear to be shifting to a search to pin the adverse affects onto the mRNA jabs. In 2022 we saw increasing, peer reviewed articles from respectable medical sources making the link and expect to see more this year. This is important because it demonstrates fraud on the part of Pfizer/Moderna and the CDC – fraud that can strip away the legal protection granted from civil lawsuits against those companies.
I expect that Florida’s lawsuit will establish fraudulent behavior by Pfizer and Moderna.
Economy –
Timing and severity of the inbound recession of 2023 are still being bantered about by many economists and money managers. One factor that may play a key role is the recent “Inflation Reduction Act”. Buried in this act is a new 1% excise tax on stock buybacks. What this will do is affect stock buybacks, which are still the primary means by which equities are kept afloat by major corporations. Over the past decade, buybacks have been funded by money borrowed from the Fed at near-zero interest – essentially free money. Now, the easy money party is about to end.
The 1% excise tax added on top of a 5% Fed funds rate creates a 6% millstone on any money borrowed to finance future buybacks. This cost is going to be far too high and buybacks will falter. Meaning, stock markets will also stop, and drop. It will likely take two or three months before the tax and the rate hikes create a visible effect on markets. This would put our time frame for contraction around March or April of 2023.
Energy and food price inflation and shortages remain a domestic concern over the near term. Natural gas storage in the Western U.S. is at its lowest level since 2009. Food prices increased significantly in November, with eggs seeing the largest price increase in four decades.
While gasoline prices have dropped in recent months, analysts expect prices to again exceed the $4/gallon mark – though not attaining the record $5+/gallon of 2022. However, global events can quickly change the equation, particularly when supplies are interrupted – such as would happen if China/Taiwan or Israel/Iran kicks off. Another point is oil and energy prices are being kept down because of China’s Zero Covid policy, which is slowing their economy to a crawl and reducing oil usage to a minimum. A reopening by early next year is on the way. As soon as China reopens, oil prices will skyrocket once again on the global market.
Invasion of Illegals –
2023 will not be good for the country as illegals pour across the border, creating law enforcement and social services crisis’ – resulting in lower income Americans losing services. Violence and property crimes will skyrocket as these illegals fail to find work and start taking advantage of the lack of will to deport. We are already past a threshold where we could find and deport these illegals.
Further expect more pushes by democrats (with help from turncoat republicans in both houses) to provide some degree of legalization of most of the illegals. Could be facing as much as 25 - 50% more entering the country.
Biden / Harris watch –
Biden’s health is still questionable and he may become incapacitated this next year, either physically or mentally. This would create a crisis in govt as dems try to position someone into the WH other than Harris who is electable for 2024
CW2/Domestic violence –
Antifa et al will continue small scale supporting counter protests as well as community outreach. It will continue to identify more lethal and intimidating tactics and grow its core of trained and ideologically ‘pure’ membership.
NLT than the 2024 campaign season rush, biden DoJ/FBI will make a move to indict and arrest Trump – likely in a very showy manner in order to maximize the shock to Trump followers and attempt to instigate a violent reaction by the right.
I believe that the govt will increase its intrusion into spying on citizens, especially those identified as ‘white, Christian nationalists domestic terrorists”. Agent Provocateurs will be active in groups like the 3 percenters, etc to encourage some act of violence to justify a nation wide crackdown. This may result in pushback from Red states and leaders as well - increasing the chances of conflict of some kind - likely legal push back. This risk will increase as 2024 comes rushing in.
CANCEL CULTURE FRONT
Twitter Files aside, the other components of Big Tech are likely to continue to conduct government direction cancelling of regime opponents. DoJ/FBI will simply ignore their unconsitiutional actions and continue as is with MSM coverage. This will get worse once again as the 2024 elections come down.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Mostly stalemate in congress as republicans manage to muster opposition in the house to stop the biden regime agenda. Senate republican turncoats in the Senate will continue to be more democrat than republican.
Democrats and the rest of the swamp will pursue Trump with every means available in order to discredit him and render him ineligible to run for the WH again. Level of effort will shame a lot of what the Stasi did in the past. This will also continue to spill over onto Trump supporters.
Domestic / International Terror (modified)-
Hard to judge at this time. Should things go sideways, I expect foreigners (principally illegals) to take advantage and have sleeper cells activate.
Latest ruminting on the string of power substation vandalisms. Some suggest that environmentalists are doing the damage. Another possible source among many potential actors out there.
China – NEW info
WAR WATCH
I have added a WAR WATCH to China has there has developed a very high possibility of launching some sort of attempt on Taiwan this year and in particular, the next 30 days, around the Chinese New Year time frame. The most likely actions is for China to start some level of blockade in around. China will then have roughly 60 days until the next ideal window for an amphibious landing on Taiwan opens up in April. A Chinese blockade during this period would force Taiwan to use up most of its reserve resources. Taiwan probably has about a month’s supply of oil and natural gas, forcing Taiwanese concession without a major war.
Reasons for the increase in the potential timetable by China include:
- Potential of a major recession in the US beginning as early as this spring.
- Success of the ‘soft’ blockade in Aug 2022 after pelosi’s visit thru blanketing the areas around Taiwan with ‘exercise’ and live fire zones.
- Increasing miliary preparedness by other western pacific nations - Japan, S Korea, Philippines, Australia and New Zealand – which would make a military move at a later date more problematical.
- China may believe that it currently has adequate naval, and air capabilities to counter any US efforts to thwart China’s plans
Chinese strategic goals –
1. Obtain surrender by Taiwan with little or no combat
2. Obtain surrender by Taiwan by direct assault if necessary (most dangerous course of action – MDCOA).
China is fully capable of;
- imposing a blockade at any time of its choosing.
- Launching air, sea and missile attacks at any time of its choosing
- Has range of conventional and nuclear options available at any time.
- Launching an amphibious assault as early as April 2023, giving the China the time to assemble the assault forces and transports necessary
Current indicators
1. Dramatically increased air and naval exercises around Taiwan, some even being announced as ‘strike’ exercises.
2. Chinese naval exercises close to key US bases in Guam and Okinawa.
3. Chinese purchases of cheap Russia oil and storing in stockpiles
4. Increased cooperative exercises with Russia and improving relations between Xi and Putin.
5. Aggressive air intercepts of US reconnaissance aircraft.
Chinese Economic situation -
China’s factory activity shrank for the third straight month in December and at the sharpest pace in nearly three years as Covid infections swept through production lines across the country after Beijing’s abrupt reversal of anti-virus measures. The official purchasing managers’ index (PMI) fell to 47.0 from 48.0 in November, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said on Saturday. Economists in a Reuters poll had expected the PMI to come in at 48.0. The 50-point mark separates contraction from growth on a monthly basis.
OBSERVATION – War often can be used to distract and modify economic woes as a means to jump start the economy as well as a unifier of the country to detract from economic woes.
North/South Korea –
NK popped a few short ranged missiles into the sea for a new years celebration
I don’t think NK has this miniaturized nuclear weapon – yet. I suspect that the next underground test will involve testing this more deployable device.
According to the official Korean Central News Agency, Kim stressed the need to secure “overwhelming military power” to defend North Korea’s sovereignty and security at a recent meeting of the ruling Workers’ Party. Kim accused South Korea of being “hell-bent on imprudent and dangerous arms build-up’’ and trumpeting its preparations for war with Pyongyang.
That, the North Korean leader said, highlights the need to mass-produce battlefield tactical nuclear weapons and calls for “an exponential increase of the country’s nuclear arsenal,’’ KCNA reported.
Kim also said that the United States and South Korea were trying to “isolate and stifle” the North with US nuclear strike assets constantly deployed in the South, calling it “unprecedented in human history.”
He pledged to develop another ICBM system “whose main mission is quick nuclear counter-strike” under a plan to boost the country’s nuclear force, KCNA said.
OBSERVATION – The military build up Kim is calling for is not cheap and the NK economy is hardly capable of supporting. I think what is key here is that knowing NK no longer has a credible military threat on the ground, he is betting the ranch that this could be offset by a nuclear deterrence. Again, historical perspective – when NK began its development towards nuclear weapons and delivery systems it was common for the rockets to blow up on the pads or shortly after launch. Those failures are now a small percentage and NK has demonstrated the ability to place an object in polar orbit as well as its newest missile being capable of carrying multiple warheads to any location in the US. What is standing in his way IMHO, is a demonstratable nuclear warhead small enough to be carried by his rockets and in the case of a strike against the US, a survivable reentry mode to protect the warhead. NK’s next underground test may well be of such a miniaturized warhead.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - The “three days to conquer Ukraine” continues after fighting started on Feb 24th, 2022.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russia is currently working to (re)assemble a military force capable of resuming the offensive in the Donbas while at the same time trying to make defensive preparations for an expected Ukrainian offensive as well. Suspected goal for the start of offensive operations is latter half of January at the earliest.
At present, it is capable of very local offensive actions as in the ongoing fighting around Bahkmut and Donetsk.
Russia is also capable of launching more cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure -primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.
********
Russian President Vladimir Putin devoted his annual New Year’s address on Saturday to rallying the Russian people behind his troops fighting in Ukraine and pledging victory over Ukrainian “neo-Nazis” and a West supposedly intent on “destroying Russia”. Its soldiers, he said, were fighting for “our motherland, truth and justice ... so that Russia’s security can be guaranteed”.
In the nine-minute address - the longest of his 22 years in power - Putin targeted those opposed to the conflict, a personal crusade that now defines his tenure and Russia’s relations with the world.
RUMINT - Danish military intelligence suggests drug-induced megalomania may have influenced Putin to invade Ukraine. The Russian president Vladimir Putin was likely influenced by medication when he decided to launch a war in Ukraine. In an interview with Berlingske, the head of Russia analysis at FE, the Danish Defence Intelligence Service, provides some rare insights into what we currently know about Putin – and what may eventually lead him to lose power.
»Delusions of grandeur are one of the known side effects of the type of hormone treatment that he was on,« Joakim states. »It’s not something I can say for certain, but I think it did affect his decisions when he launched the war in Ukraine. «
The man making this stunning observation is not just anyone. Joakim heads the Russia analysis team at FE, the Danish Defence Intelligence Service. For security reasons he is not allowed to present himself in photos or using his last name. It wasn’t poor intelligence but Putin’s ideological convictions that led Russian soldiers to believe they would be greeted with flowers. (H/T GOPJ)
NOTE- putin’s health has been a common point of issue of late. Recent public appearances suggest he is suffering from some kind of serious medical condition – thus he has been limiting and controlling them. Severe, life threatening illnesses by itself and standard medications taken to combat it are more than capable of altering mental conditions and stability. Serious for continued heavy Russian losses in Ukraine and an even more dangerous potential for limited nuclear use, particularly if the reportedly planned winter offensive fails.
Logistics –
- Russia delivered advanced jet fighters to Iran as part of a likely deal for more drones and probably Iranian constructed short to intermediate range ballistic missiles.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Nasty mix of rain and snow throughout most of the 10 day forecast with cold temperatures.
24 HOUR ROUND UP – QUICK CATCH-UP
Additional cruise missile and drone attacks, mostly focused on Kyiv. Front in the east is largely unchanged
Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
Ukraine forces continue to pressure the Russian lines NW of Svatove with Russian attempting to conduct spoiling attacks.
Donetsk Oblast ——
Fighting continues both north and west of Donetsk.
OUTLOOK ——
I know I’ve said Russia is running low on its missile stockpile, but continue to be surprised by these cruise missle attacks. The assessment remains though because
1. Russia has been relying heavily on Iranian drones
2. Russia has been using up a large stockpile of S300 missiles that have been converted to ground attack modes
3. These missile barrages are substantially smaller and are occurring at longer intervals.
Build up for a winter offensive by both sides continues and recent fighting potentially reflects maneuvering into better positions to either launch or defend from an offensive.
Increased focus on the timing of a Russian offensive has generally focused on the latter part of January to early February. Recent interactions between Xi and putin and the War Watch on China (see above), may suggest that the window for the Russian kickoff could coincide with the Chinese New Year. If China takes action against Taiwan in that time frame and Russia manages to get out of the shoots for its offensive – this two front action could freeze western response, giving both China and Russia an opportunity to gain the momentum.
See Belarus below – a Russia or a combined Russian/Belarus attack into N Ukraine is still judged to be unlikely at this time.
Belarus -
Recent intelligence assessments suggest that Belarus’ artillery stockpiles have been essentially tapped out by Russia. This would indicate that a Belarus/Russia invasion from the north is less likely.
SERBIA / KOSOVO -
There is a moderate chance of some degree of fighting in N Kosovo sometime in 2023 – becoming very likely if Russia launches its offensive. At current, the near term look is continued high tensions but no overt military action by Serbia.
Israel –
It appears that Israel may well have a stable govt following a half dozen parliamentary elections over the course of the past couple years, with Netanyahu returning to the PM slot ahead of a much farther right coalition.
Pretty much the standard year in its fight against Hamas, PJI and Hezbollah. Iranian support for these terrorists elements improved over the course of the year as sanctions were lowered in an attempt to lure it to the nuclear barganing table. Nearly routine IAF strikes on Hezbollah facilities in Syria continued. Israel worked delicately with Russia to avoid their troops in the way of IAF airstrikes.
Iran –
Iran has been busy, leading the west in circles with their negations on nuclear weapons, getting sanctions dropped, while at the same time openly ignoring others, such as oil and arms sales. Besides Israel/Hezbollah, Iran continued to support the Houthi rebels and recently the Russians with munitions.
Iran made significant strides forward in their nuclear program, now capable of 90% purity for uranium, essential to manufacture a nuclear weapon. Its trade deal with Russia calls for increased ‘technical’ assistance which some suspect may be linked to the development of a nuke and a deliverable warhead. Its military complex has been working overtime to develop new weapons for itself as well as sales.
Protests rekindled over the past few days as anniversaries of those killed by the regime came around and the govt cracked down by killing more protestors.
Syria -
Civil war continues in the country with direct outside activity by Russia, Turkey, Iran and the US. Russia’s presence has dropped significantly due to Ukraine while Turkey has gotten more aggressive against all comers and in particular the Kurds in N Syria.
Turkey -
Turkey has been playing on both sides of the fence lately. Siding with NATO as far as access in/out of the Black Sea goes, supplying drones to Ukraine while OTOH keeping comfy with Russia on side deals such as an outlet for its natural gas and purchasing the S400 air defense missle system . It has also reached out to Israel to mend some fences, likely in return for more technological benefits.
Turkey has also been very aggressive this year, particularly towards kurds in Syria and Iraq, as well as its perennial enemies the Greeks.
Its economy has been hit hard this year with inflation in the 80% range, making military actions more costly. The success of its drones in Ukraine (as well as in 2021 in Syria, Armenia and Africa) has given that sector of the economy a significant boost.
India -
Tensions built up with China in the disputed Himalayan region. India has progressively built up its military in the region to counter Chinese challenges.
Armenia/Azerbaijan -
Azerbaijan continued to take advantage of Armenia’s weakness due to lack of support from Russia. Ukraine has altered the balance of power in the region and made it more prone to war.
Well, moving into 2023 things are not unchanged from 2022.
Globalism / Great Reset –
This year is going to be tougher on the global economy than the one we have left behind, the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) chief Kristalina Georgieva has warned.
“Why? Because the three big economies, US, EU, China, are all slowing down simultaneously,” she said in an interview that aired on CBS Sunday.
“We expect one third of the world economy to be in recession,” she said, adding that even for countries that are not in recession: “It would feel like recession for hundreds of millions of people.”
OBSERVATION – Global economic crisis is considered essential for the “Great Reset”. In order for something to be ‘reset’, it has to be broken.
Former People’s Bank of China official Xie Ping said in a recent interview that the digital yuan only achieved $14 billion in trade over the last two years. Xie reportedly said that the main shortfall was the currency only functions as a cash substitute.
OBSERVATION – The globalist reaction will likely be the elimination of cash – then there would be no other option. Already under consideration by multiple nations including the US. China has been one of the WEFs pilot tests for the system.
During its 2023 Davos conference, the World Economic Forum will host a press conference on its “Building The Metaverse Initiative,” and release key “studies” and details about its efforts to further facilitate what appears to amount to a global surveillance network, according to documents reviewed by The Dossier.
The Metaverse, a buzzworthy bumper sticker slogan that refers to a whole host of ideas in the technology space, has potential current and future applications both for private and governmental entities. It will be featured as one of the core staples of the 2023 Davos conference.
What is the Metaverse, exactly?
The term Metaverse was invented by author Neal Stephenson in his 1992 sci-fi novel Snow Crash, in which citizens used digital avatars as a means to escape their dystopian reality.
Today it can be defined as “a vision of what many in the computer industry believe is the next iteration of the internet: a single, shared, immersive, persistent, 3D virtual space where humans experience life in ways they could not in the physical world.” Before its expanded definition, the Metaverse encompassed a technologically advancing virtual and augmented reality space.
The WEF Metaverse press conference event description reads:
“This press conference will announce the first, and long-awaited, outputs of the Defining and Building the Metaverse Initiative: highly anticipated briefing papers on Interoperability in the Metaverse from the governance track of the project, and Demystifying the Consumer Metaverse from the value creation track. These two briefing papers, the first in each workstream’s series, will serve as the foremost publications involving this amount of research, this number of stakeholders from diverse industries (120+ partners are involved in this initiative), into these topics.”
OBSERVATION – The whole metaverse discussion from outside the WEF crowd is very diverse – indicating that there is great potential for other uses besides the Fakebook 3-D synthetic ‘universe’. Some look towards the WEF’s goal to merge man and machine (transhumanism) and the often spoken attempt to transfer individual consciousness’ onto computers — creating their form of ‘eternal life’ for the chosen ones. Others see another technological means to control the masses deemed worthy of continuing to live. Even at its most benign level, the effort reeks of a sci-fi dystopian future.
Wuhan virus –
The rate of COVID-19 infections may have exceeded 50 percent in Chinese provinces and large cities and reached as high as 80 percent in the capital city of Beijing, the country’s health experts and officials estimated, painting a picture much grimmer than what the nation’s central authorities disclosed and fueling distrust around the world.
“The infection rate of the current COVID wave is already very high, with many large cities seeing it exceed 50 percent,” Zhang Wenhong, director of the National Centre for Infectious Diseases, said on Dec. 29 at an online forum. That may reach up to 80 percent during China’s Lunar New Year in late January.
OBSERVATION – Hmmmmm seems familar. Some in China are claiming the reported explosion of cases is due to the relaxation of zero-covid standards. Though deaths are being reported, and even a small percentage of deaths among an estimated 500,000 million would be a lot, reports are not indicating that is a major concern, just the levels of hospitalizations.
IN RELATED - Australia and Canada became the latest countries to require travelers from China to provide negative COVID-19 tests upon arrival. The United States, Britain, France, South Korea, and several other countries have all imposed similar measures. Morocco will impose a ban on people arriving from China, its foreign ministry said.
OBSERVATION – Where did we see this before? Could be a pretense for reinstatement of wuhan tyranny of masks and separations/shutdowns.
A far-left (borderline Marxist) group calling itself the “People’s CDC” has called for more radical coronavirus policies like indefinite mask mandates and social distancing, charging that America’s relaxed pandemic policies stem from a racist eugenics impulse beholden to corporate interests.
OBSERVATION – SMH, its all about power, not the virus.
Economy –
The Foundation for Government Accountability (FGA) reported this week that enrollment in Medicaid will reach 100 million in about 76 days, based upon its enrollment countdown clock.
Medicaid is a federal- and state-funded program that helps pay the health care costs of individuals and families who are poor, in low-income brackets
OBSERVATION – Medicaid can be used as a gauge to evaluate the economic health of the nation’s families. By this measure, nearly 30% of the nation are considered ‘poor’. Some of this level is due in part to wuhan and fed govt supplying extra money to cover new enrollees. But at this stage, the growth of enrollment shows that there are areas of weakness in the economy.
Also, let us not forget. A goal of a tyrannical govt is to make as many people dependent on govt as possible – making for easier control.
A 2008 rule passed by the California Air Resources Board (CARB) banning diesel vehicles over 14,000 pounds manufactured before 2010 took effect 1 January 2023. An estimated 200,000 vehicles, including 70,000 semi trucks, do not comply with the rule. According to industry groups, 10% of commercial vehicles on the road in California are now banned.
OBSERVATION – kalifornia’s green movement is in large part dooming the kalifornia economy. More expensive, mandated trucks require a lot of capitol to fund – and knowing that the next phase of kalifornian control is to eliminate diesel/gasoline powered trucks all together and force EV trucks. Biggest hit will be smaller companies.
CW2/Domestic violence –
A national survey conducted by the Trafalgar Group last month indicates that America may be politically segregating at a much faster pace than is apparent from net population changes. The survey asked likely voters, “Have you moved in the last 3 years, or plan to move in the next year, to a region that aligns more closely with your political and/or personal beliefs?”
Over 4% of Republicans and independents said they had already moved, in the last three years, to a region more closely aligned with their political beliefs.
Far more importantly, over 10% of Republicans and over 9% of Independents say they plan to move in the next year to a region in which they are more politically aligned. Just as significantly, those numbers are far smaller for Democrats.
OBSERVATION – As been recognized, the Red is getting Redder, while the blue – bluer. Along the same lines is the continued growth in opinions that there should be an actual split – by both sides. Some hope that the ‘divorce’ will be peaceful. No it won’t as the Marxist left wants power for power sake and its tyrants in the fed govt will not allow its control over the Red regions go unchallenged. On the other side, one wonders how long red areas will chafe under the yoke of an inept and destructive central government.
CANCEL CULTURE FRONT
Elon Musk, on Sunday, teased that this week’s Twitter Files report would focus on the now former director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, Anthony Fauci, in what could be known as the Fauci Files.
Domestic / International Terror (modified)-
The Department of Homeland Security released on Saturday, New Year’s Eve, a warning about an upcoming terrorist attack. According to the intelligence, al Qaeda is actively recruiting new suicide bombers to use aircraft in attacks on the United States that are similar to what took place on September 11, 2001. They will use different strategies and tactics, according to the memo. Those strategies were not specified.
OBSERVATION - AQ acting on weakness – like all islam does and the biden regime is acting very weak. It doesn’t help that the regime is taking Air Marshals out of the planes and placing them in administrative positions on the border to process illegals.
19-year-old Trevor Bickford, from Wells, Maine, is the kid who injured three NYPD officers with a machete in an unprovoked attack in Times Square. He was on the FBI’ watchlist’ after being radicalized. UK’s Daily Mail wrote, “the FBI in Boston do have an open case on him,” and “he is on a ‘guardian list’ because of his radicalization.”
NYPD shot him and he was rushed to Bellevue Hospital in Manhattan, along with the two cops he injured — all three are expected to survive.
OBSERVATION – On the FBI’s watch list. However, this poses a serious question – do we want preemptive arrests to prevent a crime and just how does our constitution respond to that? Taking it one step further, if preemptive arrests are allowed, whats to stop them from ‘arresting’ patriot group members to prevent ‘domestic attacks’. We must be careful for what we ask for because it will be twisted against us.
China –
WAR WATCH – I am still monitoring for indicators that indicated that China may initiate a more coercive plan to force Taiwan into submission with a potential start of a potential blockade of the island during the Chineese New Years timeframe.
Current contraindicator – See wuhan above. ,” Zhang Wenhong, director of the National Centre for Infectious Diseases, said on Dec. 29 at an online forum. That may reach up to 80 percent during China’s Lunar New Year in late January. This being the same time frame for initiation of operations against Taiwan and may cause China to delay implementation as it tries to deal with this internal problem.
See Globalism/Great Reset above on digital currency status
North/South Korea –
North Korea has sacked Pak Jong Chon, the second most powerful military official after leader Kim Jong Un, state media reported.
Pak, vice chairman of the Central Military Commission of the ruling Workers’ Party and a secretary of the party’s Central Committee, was replaced by Ri Yong Gil at the committee’s annual meeting last week, the official KCNA news agency said on Sunday.
No reason for the change was given. Pyongyang regularly revamps its leadership and the year-end party gathering has often been used to announce personnel reshuffles and major policy decisions.
OBSERVATION – With the recent announcement by Kim that NK was going to build a massive nuclear arsenal, Chon may have been seen as a liability and not an asset towards this goal. May also be associated with the recent flare-up in inter-Korea tension over North Korean drones’ intrusion into the south.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now closing out its ninth month of the “three days to conquer Ukraine” since fighting starting on Feb 24th.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russia is currently working to (re)assemble a military force capable of resuming the offensive in the Donbas while at the same time trying to make defensive preparations for an expected Ukranian offensive as well. Suspected goal for the start of offensive operations is latter half of January at the earliest.
At present, it is capable of very local offensive actions as in the ongoing fighting around Bakhmut and Donetsk.
Russia is also capable of launching more cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure -primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.
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Colonel General Sergin Surovikin, “The Butcher of Syria”, is being replaced by Russian Lieutenant General Yevgeny Nikiforov in heading Russia’s Western Group of Forces in Ukraine.
Lieutenant General Nikiforov will be the 4th person to have taken this position since the invasion of Ukraine began; his predecessor only held the position for three months. In his previous role, Nikiforov led the offensive on Kyiv. Some would call the promotion controversial as Lieutenant General Nikiforov is alleged to be partly responsible for failed attempts by the Eastern Group of Forces to advance into Kyiv via the toxic Chornobyl area.
RUMINT-
Photos of putin at his new years address suggest he was wearing body armor of some sort under his clothing.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Nasty mix of rain and snow throughout most of the 10 day forecast with cold temperatures.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Missile/drone strikes have tapered off from the weekend and ground fighting has resumed in all the same places as before. No apparent changes on the ground. Big story is the HIMARS strike that appears to have killed 400-700 Russian soldiers.
Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
Reports that Ukrainian forces are pushing towards control of highway P-66 north of Kreminna. Ukraine has been able to keep this major supply route under artillery fire and now their ground forces appear to be close to physically cutting the route off. It would be a significant blow to the logistics support to the northern regions of the Russian Donbas effort.
Donetsk Oblast ——
Russian Ministry of defense: as many as 160 dead and 200 wounded Russian servicemen as result of HIMARS missile strike at base in Makiivka
Zaporizhizhia Front ———
NSR
OUTLOOK ——
However, there appears to be some changes in the Ukraine/Russian HIMARS dance in the east. Reports are that Russia has learned it must scatter its ammo/logistics dumps all over the place and not concentrate them, making them easy prey for HIMARS. They haven’t done the same for troop concentrations, as evidenced by HIMARS strike at base in Makiivka that killed as many as 400-700 Russian soldiers. The key here is that it is believed that these are recent conscripts from the mobilization and that the military was keeping them in a singular location to prevent them from exfiltrating / abandoning the war and escaping – a problem that has plagued Russian forces since the call up. With winter coming in hard, and Russian logistics incapable of supplying winter equipment, Russian soldiers will congregate in buildings to escape the weather.
Israel –
See Syria below on overnight air strike
New Israeli foreign minister Eli Cohen signaled a policy shift on Ukraine in his 1st speech hinting the new government will take a more pro-Russian line. He said he will speak on Tuesday with Russian FM Lavrov – 1st such call since the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
OBSERVATION – Dangerous course getting cozier with a scorpion. They are blind to the realization that Russia has moved into a very close cooperative relationship with Israel’s arch enemy – Iran.
Iran –
See Lebanon RE Hezbollah leader seriously ill.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards are building two naval carriers for launching armed drones and fighter helicopters, thereby diversifying their capabilities for potential attacks on the US and Israel. This project draws on lessons from Russia’s use of their drones in its war on Ukraine. The carriers, Shahid Mahdavi and Shaid Bagheri, will have decks 240m long. Working at top speed, the ISOICO shipyard outside the Bandar Abbas port, is due to finish work on the first vessel, Shahid Mahdavi 110-3, by mid-2023.
OBSERVATION – It wasn’t too long ago we made fun of Iran’s miliary complex, trying to scrape up parts to keep their fleet of cold war fighter jets in the air. Today, Iran’s military complex has matured and Iran is demonstrating an abilty to think out of the box in an asymmetrical warfare role, versus the conventional naval one. They are quickly adjusting to the new battle norm of drone wars and as stated, taking lessons learned to quickly capitalize in it.
Lebanon -
Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah was rushed to intensive care after suffering a stroke, according to reports from Lebanon and Saudi Arabia.
The reports came after Nasrallah canceled a planned Friday speech, with the Lebanese terrorist organization announcing through its affiliated media he had fallen ill with influenza and was unable to speak well.
Saudi journalist Hussein al-Gawi contradicted Hezbollah’s statement, claiming that Nasrallah indeed suffered a second stroke instead of falling ill as was reported. The Hezbollah leader was reportedly hospitalized at the Great Prophet Hospital in Beirut.
OBSERVATION - Should he die, forward operations for Hezbollah may stall for a period as his replacement solidifies his control and starts implementing his plans. That said, Iran is the major driver and any hiccup with Hezbollah may be very limited.
Syria -
Israel’s military has fired missiles on the international airport of Syria’s capital, putting it out of service and killing two soldiers and wounding two others, the Syrian army said. The Damascus airport was closed for a period as a result, but is reportedly reopened at limited capacity.
Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu had a phone conversation with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and discussed the details of the tripartite ministerial meeting with his Syrian counterpart. The meeting could take place in the second half of January, NTV broadcaster quoted Çavuşoğlu as saying on Dec. 31.
OBSERVATION – Most likely working towards going after the Kurds in N Syria.
Mexico -
Fourteen people have been killed, and dozens more injured after gunmen in armored vehicles attacked a state prison in the northern Mexican city of Ciudad Juarez, which sits across the border from El Paso, Texas, on New Year’s Day.
Approximately 10 prison guards and four inmates were killed on the morning of Jan. 1 when an unknown number of gunmen arrived at the Cereso No. 3 state prison at around 7 a.m. local time and opened fire, officials said.
OBSERVATON – This is just across the border from El Paso TX. The failure to control the border will allow cartel violence to migrate northward as well. Mexican law allows the miliary to go after them. Our laws prohibit the miltary from similar actions, and current law enforcement assets are already overwhelmed by crime that to include an element to literally combat heavily armed cartels will collapse the system in border areas.