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Well, moving into 2023 things are not unchanged from 2022.

Globalism / Great Reset –

This year is going to be tougher on the global economy than the one we have left behind, the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) chief Kristalina Georgieva has warned.
“Why? Because the three big economies, US, EU, China, are all slowing down simultaneously,” she said in an interview that aired on CBS Sunday.
“We expect one third of the world economy to be in recession,” she said, adding that even for countries that are not in recession: “It would feel like recession for hundreds of millions of people.”

OBSERVATION – Global economic crisis is considered essential for the “Great Reset”. In order for something to be ‘reset’, it has to be broken.

Former People’s Bank of China official Xie Ping said in a recent interview that the digital yuan only achieved $14 billion in trade over the last two years. Xie reportedly said that the main shortfall was the currency only functions as a cash substitute.

OBSERVATION – The globalist reaction will likely be the elimination of cash – then there would be no other option. Already under consideration by multiple nations including the US. China has been one of the WEFs pilot tests for the system.

During its 2023 Davos conference, the World Economic Forum will host a press conference on its “Building The Metaverse Initiative,” and release key “studies” and details about its efforts to further facilitate what appears to amount to a global surveillance network, according to documents reviewed by The Dossier.
The Metaverse, a buzzworthy bumper sticker slogan that refers to a whole host of ideas in the technology space, has potential current and future applications both for private and governmental entities. It will be featured as one of the core staples of the 2023 Davos conference.

What is the Metaverse, exactly?
The term Metaverse was invented by author Neal Stephenson in his 1992 sci-fi novel Snow Crash, in which citizens used digital avatars as a means to escape their dystopian reality.

Today it can be defined as “a vision of what many in the computer industry believe is the next iteration of the internet: a single, shared, immersive, persistent, 3D virtual space where humans experience life in ways they could not in the physical world.” Before its expanded definition, the Metaverse encompassed a technologically advancing virtual and augmented reality space.

The WEF Metaverse press conference event description reads:
“This press conference will announce the first, and long-awaited, outputs of the Defining and Building the Metaverse Initiative: highly anticipated briefing papers on Interoperability in the Metaverse from the governance track of the project, and Demystifying the Consumer Metaverse from the value creation track. These two briefing papers, the first in each workstream’s series, will serve as the foremost publications involving this amount of research, this number of stakeholders from diverse industries (120+ partners are involved in this initiative), into these topics.”

OBSERVATION – The whole metaverse discussion from outside the WEF crowd is very diverse – indicating that there is great potential for other uses besides the Fakebook 3-D synthetic ‘universe’. Some look towards the WEF’s goal to merge man and machine (transhumanism) and the often spoken attempt to transfer individual consciousness’ onto computers — creating their form of ‘eternal life’ for the chosen ones. Others see another technological means to control the masses deemed worthy of continuing to live. Even at its most benign level, the effort reeks of a sci-fi dystopian future.

Wuhan virus –

The rate of COVID-19 infections may have exceeded 50 percent in Chinese provinces and large cities and reached as high as 80 percent in the capital city of Beijing, the country’s health experts and officials estimated, painting a picture much grimmer than what the nation’s central authorities disclosed and fueling distrust around the world.
“The infection rate of the current COVID wave is already very high, with many large cities seeing it exceed 50 percent,” Zhang Wenhong, director of the National Centre for Infectious Diseases, said on Dec. 29 at an online forum. That may reach up to 80 percent during China’s Lunar New Year in late January.

OBSERVATION – Hmmmmm seems familar. Some in China are claiming the reported explosion of cases is due to the relaxation of zero-covid standards. Though deaths are being reported, and even a small percentage of deaths among an estimated 500,000 million would be a lot, reports are not indicating that is a major concern, just the levels of hospitalizations.

IN RELATED - Australia and Canada became the latest countries to require travelers from China to provide negative COVID-19 tests upon arrival. The United States, Britain, France, South Korea, and several other countries have all imposed similar measures. Morocco will impose a ban on people arriving from China, its foreign ministry said.

OBSERVATION – Where did we see this before? Could be a pretense for reinstatement of wuhan tyranny of masks and separations/shutdowns.

A far-left (borderline Marxist) group calling itself the “People’s CDC” has called for more radical coronavirus policies like indefinite mask mandates and social distancing, charging that America’s relaxed pandemic policies stem from a racist eugenics impulse beholden to corporate interests.

OBSERVATION – SMH, its all about power, not the virus.

Economy –

The Foundation for Government Accountability (FGA) reported this week that enrollment in Medicaid will reach 100 million in about 76 days, based upon its enrollment countdown clock.
Medicaid is a federal- and state-funded program that helps pay the health care costs of individuals and families who are poor, in low-income brackets

OBSERVATION – Medicaid can be used as a gauge to evaluate the economic health of the nation’s families. By this measure, nearly 30% of the nation are considered ‘poor’. Some of this level is due in part to wuhan and fed govt supplying extra money to cover new enrollees. But at this stage, the growth of enrollment shows that there are areas of weakness in the economy.
Also, let us not forget. A goal of a tyrannical govt is to make as many people dependent on govt as possible – making for easier control.

A 2008 rule passed by the California Air Resources Board (CARB) banning diesel vehicles over 14,000 pounds manufactured before 2010 took effect 1 January 2023. An estimated 200,000 vehicles, including 70,000 semi trucks, do not comply with the rule. According to industry groups, 10% of commercial vehicles on the road in California are now banned.

OBSERVATION – kalifornia’s green movement is in large part dooming the kalifornia economy. More expensive, mandated trucks require a lot of capitol to fund – and knowing that the next phase of kalifornian control is to eliminate diesel/gasoline powered trucks all together and force EV trucks. Biggest hit will be smaller companies.

CW2/Domestic violence –

A national survey conducted by the Trafalgar Group last month indicates that America may be politically segregating at a much faster pace than is apparent from net population changes. The survey asked likely voters, “Have you moved in the last 3 years, or plan to move in the next year, to a region that aligns more closely with your political and/or personal beliefs?”

Over 4% of Republicans and independents said they had already moved, in the last three years, to a region more closely aligned with their political beliefs.
Far more importantly, over 10% of Republicans and over 9% of Independents say they plan to move in the next year to a region in which they are more politically aligned. Just as significantly, those numbers are far smaller for Democrats.

OBSERVATION – As been recognized, the Red is getting Redder, while the blue – bluer. Along the same lines is the continued growth in opinions that there should be an actual split – by both sides. Some hope that the ‘divorce’ will be peaceful. No it won’t as the Marxist left wants power for power sake and its tyrants in the fed govt will not allow its control over the Red regions go unchallenged. On the other side, one wonders how long red areas will chafe under the yoke of an inept and destructive central government.

CANCEL CULTURE FRONT

Elon Musk, on Sunday, teased that this week’s Twitter Files report would focus on the now former director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, Anthony Fauci, in what could be known as the Fauci Files.

Domestic / International Terror (modified)-

The Department of Homeland Security released on Saturday, New Year’s Eve, a warning about an upcoming terrorist attack. According to the intelligence, al Qaeda is actively recruiting new suicide bombers to use aircraft in attacks on the United States that are similar to what took place on September 11, 2001. They will use different strategies and tactics, according to the memo. Those strategies were not specified.

OBSERVATION - AQ acting on weakness – like all islam does and the biden regime is acting very weak. It doesn’t help that the regime is taking Air Marshals out of the planes and placing them in administrative positions on the border to process illegals.

19-year-old Trevor Bickford, from Wells, Maine, is the kid who injured three NYPD officers with a machete in an unprovoked attack in Times Square. He was on the FBI’ watchlist’ after being radicalized. UK’s Daily Mail wrote, “the FBI in Boston do have an open case on him,” and “he is on a ‘guardian list’ because of his radicalization.”
NYPD shot him and he was rushed to Bellevue Hospital in Manhattan, along with the two cops he injured — all three are expected to survive.

OBSERVATION – On the FBI’s watch list. However, this poses a serious question – do we want preemptive arrests to prevent a crime and just how does our constitution respond to that? Taking it one step further, if preemptive arrests are allowed, whats to stop them from ‘arresting’ patriot group members to prevent ‘domestic attacks’. We must be careful for what we ask for because it will be twisted against us.

China –

WAR WATCH – I am still monitoring for indicators that indicated that China may initiate a more coercive plan to force Taiwan into submission with a potential start of a potential blockade of the island during the Chineese New Years timeframe.

Current contraindicator – See wuhan above. ,” Zhang Wenhong, director of the National Centre for Infectious Diseases, said on Dec. 29 at an online forum. That may reach up to 80 percent during China’s Lunar New Year in late January. This being the same time frame for initiation of operations against Taiwan and may cause China to delay implementation as it tries to deal with this internal problem.

See Globalism/Great Reset above on digital currency status

North/South Korea –

North Korea has sacked Pak Jong Chon, the second most powerful military official after leader Kim Jong Un, state media reported.
Pak, vice chairman of the Central Military Commission of the ruling Workers’ Party and a secretary of the party’s Central Committee, was replaced by Ri Yong Gil at the committee’s annual meeting last week, the official KCNA news agency said on Sunday.
No reason for the change was given. Pyongyang regularly revamps its leadership and the year-end party gathering has often been used to announce personnel reshuffles and major policy decisions.

OBSERVATION – With the recent announcement by Kim that NK was going to build a massive nuclear arsenal, Chon may have been seen as a liability and not an asset towards this goal. May also be associated with the recent flare-up in inter-Korea tension over North Korean drones’ intrusion into the south.

Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now closing out its ninth month of the “three days to conquer Ukraine” since fighting starting on Feb 24th.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russia is currently working to (re)assemble a military force capable of resuming the offensive in the Donbas while at the same time trying to make defensive preparations for an expected Ukranian offensive as well. Suspected goal for the start of offensive operations is latter half of January at the earliest.

At present, it is capable of very local offensive actions as in the ongoing fighting around Bakhmut and Donetsk.

Russia is also capable of launching more cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure -primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.

While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.

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Colonel General Sergin Surovikin, “The Butcher of Syria”, is being replaced by Russian Lieutenant General Yevgeny Nikiforov in heading Russia’s Western Group of Forces in Ukraine.

Lieutenant General Nikiforov will be the 4th person to have taken this position since the invasion of Ukraine began; his predecessor only held the position for three months. In his previous role, Nikiforov led the offensive on Kyiv. Some would call the promotion controversial as Lieutenant General Nikiforov is alleged to be partly responsible for failed attempts by the Eastern Group of Forces to advance into Kyiv via the toxic Chornobyl area.

RUMINT-
Photos of putin at his new years address suggest he was wearing body armor of some sort under his clothing.

Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Nasty mix of rain and snow throughout most of the 10 day forecast with cold temperatures.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Missile/drone strikes have tapered off from the weekend and ground fighting has resumed in all the same places as before. No apparent changes on the ground. Big story is the HIMARS strike that appears to have killed 400-700 Russian soldiers.

Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
Reports that Ukrainian forces are pushing towards control of highway P-66 north of Kreminna. Ukraine has been able to keep this major supply route under artillery fire and now their ground forces appear to be close to physically cutting the route off. It would be a significant blow to the logistics support to the northern regions of the Russian Donbas effort.

Donetsk Oblast ——
Russian Ministry of defense: as many as 160 dead and 200 wounded Russian servicemen as result of HIMARS missile strike at base in Makiivka
Zaporizhizhia Front ———
NSR

OUTLOOK ——
However, there appears to be some changes in the Ukraine/Russian HIMARS dance in the east. Reports are that Russia has learned it must scatter its ammo/logistics dumps all over the place and not concentrate them, making them easy prey for HIMARS. They haven’t done the same for troop concentrations, as evidenced by HIMARS strike at base in Makiivka that killed as many as 400-700 Russian soldiers. The key here is that it is believed that these are recent conscripts from the mobilization and that the military was keeping them in a singular location to prevent them from exfiltrating / abandoning the war and escaping – a problem that has plagued Russian forces since the call up. With winter coming in hard, and Russian logistics incapable of supplying winter equipment, Russian soldiers will congregate in buildings to escape the weather.

Israel –

See Syria below on overnight air strike

New Israeli foreign minister Eli Cohen signaled a policy shift on Ukraine in his 1st speech hinting the new government will take a more pro-Russian line. He said he will speak on Tuesday with Russian FM Lavrov – 1st such call since the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

OBSERVATION – Dangerous course getting cozier with a scorpion. They are blind to the realization that Russia has moved into a very close cooperative relationship with Israel’s arch enemy – Iran.

Iran –

See Lebanon RE Hezbollah leader seriously ill.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guards are building two naval carriers for launching armed drones and fighter helicopters, thereby diversifying their capabilities for potential attacks on the US and Israel. This project draws on lessons from Russia’s use of their drones in its war on Ukraine. The carriers, Shahid Mahdavi and Shaid Bagheri, will have decks 240m long. Working at top speed, the ISOICO shipyard outside the Bandar Abbas port, is due to finish work on the first vessel, Shahid Mahdavi 110-3, by mid-2023.

OBSERVATION – It wasn’t too long ago we made fun of Iran’s miliary complex, trying to scrape up parts to keep their fleet of cold war fighter jets in the air. Today, Iran’s military complex has matured and Iran is demonstrating an abilty to think out of the box in an asymmetrical warfare role, versus the conventional naval one. They are quickly adjusting to the new battle norm of drone wars and as stated, taking lessons learned to quickly capitalize in it.

Lebanon -

Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah was rushed to intensive care after suffering a stroke, according to reports from Lebanon and Saudi Arabia.

The reports came after Nasrallah canceled a planned Friday speech, with the Lebanese terrorist organization announcing through its affiliated media he had fallen ill with influenza and was unable to speak well.

Saudi journalist Hussein al-Gawi contradicted Hezbollah’s statement, claiming that Nasrallah indeed suffered a second stroke instead of falling ill as was reported. The Hezbollah leader was reportedly hospitalized at the Great Prophet Hospital in Beirut.

OBSERVATION - Should he die, forward operations for Hezbollah may stall for a period as his replacement solidifies his control and starts implementing his plans. That said, Iran is the major driver and any hiccup with Hezbollah may be very limited.

Syria -

Israel’s military has fired missiles on the international airport of Syria’s capital, putting it out of service and killing two soldiers and wounding two others, the Syrian army said. The Damascus airport was closed for a period as a result, but is reportedly reopened at limited capacity.

Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu had a phone conversation with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and discussed the details of the tripartite ministerial meeting with his Syrian counterpart. The meeting could take place in the second half of January, NTV broadcaster quoted Çavuşoğlu as saying on Dec. 31.

OBSERVATION – Most likely working towards going after the Kurds in N Syria.

Mexico -

Fourteen people have been killed, and dozens more injured after gunmen in armored vehicles attacked a state prison in the northern Mexican city of Ciudad Juarez, which sits across the border from El Paso, Texas, on New Year’s Day.
Approximately 10 prison guards and four inmates were killed on the morning of Jan. 1 when an unknown number of gunmen arrived at the Cereso No. 3 state prison at around 7 a.m. local time and opened fire, officials said.

OBSERVATON – This is just across the border from El Paso TX. The failure to control the border will allow cartel violence to migrate northward as well. Mexican law allows the miliary to go after them. Our laws prohibit the miltary from similar actions, and current law enforcement assets are already overwhelmed by crime that to include an element to literally combat heavily armed cartels will collapse the system in border areas.

Well, moving into 2023 things are not unchanged from 2022.

Wuhan virus –

From The Wall Street Journal, “Are Vaccines Fueling New Covid Variants?”:
https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/are-vaccines-fueling-new-covid-variants-xbb-northeast-antibodies-mutation-strain-immune-imprinting-11672483618

Public-health experts are sounding the alarm about a new Omicron variant dubbed XBB that is rapidly spreading across the Northeast U.S. Some studies suggest it is as different from the original Covid strain from Wuhan as the 2003 SARS virus. Should Americans be worried?

It isn’t clear that XBB is any more lethal than other variants, but its mutations enable it to evade antibodies from prior infection and vaccines as well as existing monoclonal antibody treatments. Growing evidence also suggests that repeated vaccinations may make people more susceptible to XBB and could be fueling the virus’s rapid evolution.

[…] “Such rapid and simultaneous emergence of multiple variants with enormous growth advantages is unprecedented,” a Dec. 19 study in the journal Nature notes. Under selective evolutionary pressures, the virus appears to have developed mutations that enable it to transmit more easily and escape antibodies elicited by vaccines and prior infection.

[…] XBB has evolved to elude antibodies induced by the vaccines and breakthrough infections. Hence, the Nature study suggests, “current herd immunity and BA.5 vaccine boosters may not efficiently prevent the infection of Omicron convergent variants.”

Notably, workers who had received more doses were at higher risk of getting sick. Those who received three more doses were 3.4 times as likely to get infected as the unvaccinated, while those who received two were only 2.6 times as likely.

OBSERVATION – It has been noted on an increasing basis that the nRNA jabs have had the effect to lower the overall viral defenses of the body – making it more susceptible to infections and other diseases. Many other voices (censored) in the medical community warned that the way the vaccines were rolled out – with virtually no testing – was bound cause rapid mutations. Those voices were considered ‘conspiracy’ and ‘misinformation’ by the cancel crowd. Now once again, we are being proven correct.

Economy –

Economists at 16 primary dealers that do business directly with the Federal Reserve, including Barclays, Bank of America, TD Securities, and UBS Group, are predicting a recession in the U.S. in 2023. Two other primary dealers predict the recession will hit in 2024, and five think the U.S. could avoid a recession in 2023 and 2024.

OBSERVATION – This is pretty representative of the split in economist views going into 2023. I see a degree of hopium in a lot of their statements, particularly those who espoused the “transitory inflation” narrative of 2021. Moderated forecasts serve to keep investors from panicking.

Biden / Harris watch –

Biden plans to commemorate the second anniversary of the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol with a White House ceremony, according to a schedule released by his office on Monday.

OBSERVATION – This event can be cross-referenced with CW2. I fully expect biden to once again launch a tirade against half of the country who supported Trump, probably invoking the domestic terrorist meme as he has before. It will be the first real crossing of swords so to speak of the 2024 presidential campaign.

Vice President Kamala Harris is requiring senators, their family members and guest wishing to take a photo with her at her swearing-in ceremony for the new Congress on Tuesday to take Covid tests within 24 hours of the picture.
A message from the U.S. Senate Sergeant-at-Arms Protocol Office was sent to all Senate offices that Harris would require coronavirus tests before photos. According to sources, some senators plan to snub the vice president on the first day of the new Congress because of the requirements.

OBSERVATION – Pitiful excuse for a VP.

CW2/Domestic violence –

Wallowa County in eastern Oregon submitted a petition aimed at forcing a ballot initiative in 2023 that would move the county out of Democrat-led Oregon and into GOP-led Idaho and is part of the Greater Idaho movement aimed to “relocate the Oregon/Idaho border to make both states better.” In doing so has become the 12th Oregonian county to do so.
For the counties to officially move from one state to another it would take the efforts of legislatures in Idaho, Oregon, and the US Congress to make the change.

OBSERVATION – As I’ve noted before, the chances of this realignment happing are nil. The Marxists left running Oregon and in DC will not let this out of their hands as it would be losing power – power over red areas of the country. Yet, this is a growing movement, joining the state of Jefferson (kalifornia) and Liberty (eastern Washington) to separate rural counties from domination by a few dark blue metropolitian areas.

The trend of separation of red from blue will likely accelerate, especially given the ongoing actions at both the state (Oregon, Washington and Kalifornia) level and federal.

CANCEL CULTURE FRONT

Democrat Senator Amy Klobuchar endorses subjecting social media companies to “hefty lawsuits” to force them to “do something” about misinformation.

OBSERVATION – Govt censorship – tyranny.

POLITICAL FRONT –

McCarthy struggled to beat back hard-line conservative opposition and secure enough votes to give him the speakership when the new House of Representatives convenes with a narrow Republican majority on Tuesday. Conservative republicans are saying McCarthy is part of the problem and not the solution.

OBSERVATION - He has been throwing a lot of compromises out there hoping to gain the support of at least 5 of the 9 holdouts. The nature of the compromises only goes to confirm he is part of the status quo crowd, happy to have the seat of power, but not willing to do the peoples business in a manner that supports the people. Most likely, unless something happens soon, there will be several ballots for speaker and who knows what other politicking to get that position.

Strategic Activity / Deployments –

The Army’s latest COVID-19 policy states that Congress’ 2023 defense bill, which rescinded the Department of Defense’s military vaccine mandate, does not address orders given to the National Guard and Reserves, according to documents obtained by the Daily Caller News Foundation.
A November 2021 memo not addressed in the defense bill applied the mandate to National Guard and Reserve troops.

OBSERVATION – The DoD will not do the common sense thing and withdraw the mandate from the Guards and Reserves as well as active duty forces – following the intent of the law. Just further evidence that the woke powers that be in the DoD actually want reenlistment and recruitment to tank and lower combat readiness levels.

China –

Indicators –
- Russian energy giant Gazprom reports that they sent more gas to China than they originally contracted. Increasing stockpiles of natural gas – as well as other resources – may indicate efforts to mitigate any sanctions brought on by an aggressive action against Taiwan.

- An unusual number of PRC cargo aircraft were noted flying to airbases inland. Now while they were not headed to bases closer to the ocean, the number of flights were very unusual according to OSINT and Chinese observers. May suggest that airborne troops for an assault may be staged further inland for OPSEC purposes.

North/South Korea –

Analysts are suggesting key military developments to watch out for in 2023. First is the development of a solid fuel ICBM to replace the liquid fuel Hwasong 17. Such a rocket would be ready to fire in substantially less time than the Hwasong 17.

Second is the development of a miniaturized warhead to mount on its tactical ballistic missiles. The world is yet to see proof that NK has been able to do this. The intelligence community spent most of 2022 waiting for it to test such a device, but the test never came - 2023 may well be the year.

Finally, 2022 was a record year for NK missile launches and there is no evidence that the will be slowing down any time soon. Some analysts are beginning to consider that these are no longer tests of the missile designs, but are transitioning to training exercises, designed to prepares to use its missiles in a possible conflict.

SK is seeking to open discussions with Washington on the subject of US deployment of nuclear weapons to SK and conducting joint nuclear exercises. The DoD had raised the topic last year but so far biden has rejected the offer.

Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now closing out its ninth month of the “three days to conquer Ukraine” since fighting starting on Feb 24th.

At present, it is capable of very local offensive actions as in the ongoing fighting around Bakhmut and Donetsk.

While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.

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Russian lawmakers are demanding punishment for commanders over negligence in the death of scores of Russian conscripts killed in a Ukrainian HIMARS strike in Donetsk on New Year’s Eve. The Russian government announced that 63 soldiers had been killed in the strike, although some U.S. intelligence officials said the death toll might be much higher. Russian commanders are being accused of housing the conscripts all together in a hotel along with their ammunition supplies which exploded during the HIMARS strike.

Russian Personnel Issues –-
- Military enlistment office was attacked with firebombs at Perovo district of Moscow

Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Nasty mix of rain and snow throughout most of the 10 day forecast with cold temperatures. Weather forcasts continue with above freezing temperatures for the next couple weeks.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
No significant change in the level and locations of conflict. Some analysts are indicating that the battles northwest of Donetsk have reached their end and Russia is pausing to regroup. Analysts also indicating similar for the battles around Bahkmut noting that Russian attacks are independent company sized and smaller elements, poorly coordinated and with minimal artillery support.

Weather continues to control matters and unusually warm weather across Europe is keeping things very muddy in Ukraine and not permitting the ground to freeze up.

Russian air defenses were busy in Simferopol and Sevastopol Crimea overnight reportedly engaging Ukrainian drones.

OUTLOOK ——
More of the same along the LOC in the east. Analysts see a decrease in Russian capabilities and attack sizes, suggesting that their capabilities are rapidly declining. This decline in capability may impair preparations for Russia’s winter offensive.

Russia has also gone into a quiet period as far as missile/cruise missile/drone attacks. Analysts suggest these are indicators of a growing shortage of those kind of munitions.

Moldova/Transnistria -

Belarus -

Speaking to Belarusian media, Defense Minister Anatoly Bulauko said that Belarusian forces are training to fight against NATO. “[NATO is] an adversary for the Republic of Belarus and the Russian Federation. We are training for war with these states with the [joint] exercises,” he said.

OBSERVATION – Analysts still consider the chances that Belarus will enter the war in Ukraine as very low to not going to happen. Recent exercises and activities have reportedly been more of a defensive nature, rather than offensive. Belarus has on numerous occasions warned of a NATO (primarily from Poland and the Baltic States) invasion of Belarus – and has used it to deflect putins arm twisting to enter the Ukraine conflict at a deeper level.

Israel –

National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, who has called for a harder line towards the Palestinians, walked around the Temple mount site surrounded by police, spurring widespread condemnation from the arab world. A visit to the site in 2000 by Israeli right-winger Ariel Sharon, then opposition leader, infuriated Palestinians. Violence which followed escalated into the second Palestinian uprising, or intifada.

OBSERVATION – Palistianian / Israeli tensions have already been sky high the past year, and this wont help matters any. The act also angered Saudi Arabia, with whom Israel was in the process of trying to establish some degree of normalized relations, based in part due to their common enemy – Iran.

Iran –

Iranian Basji forces have increased lethal attacks on protestors in an apparent attempt to quell the recent increase in protests.

Black Swans -

Watching the substantial series of storms pouring into kalifornia. The next one expected to arrive Wed thru Thurs is expected by forcasters to be one of the most severe in many, many years, and accompanied by gusts in excess of 50 mph. Winds have already downed power lines across N Ca and these winds are even stronger. Storm series hitting every 2-3 days over the next couple week. Some forecasts of over 30 feet of snow in the Sierras.

As I think I noted once before, the danger from this ‘atmospheric river’ is a warmer cell hitting and generating a rain on snow event that can create catastrophic flooding. Kalifornia’s system of lakes and reservoirs can handle excessive precipitation events – if there is a period of time to drain the lakes in preparation for the next storm. This current weather event is not allowing for storage to be regained and if worst happens, the dams will be forced to spill water at max capacity to save the dam. But this will trigger levee losses down stream. Worst case – YES but not unthinkable. Folks living in potential flood zones – even those ‘protected’ by levees – better make plans to bug out if necessary as well as increase their monitoring of their local hydrological conditions.