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Well, moving into 2023 things are not unchanged from 2022.

Wuhan virus –

From The Wall Street Journal, “Are Vaccines Fueling New Covid Variants?”:
https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/are-vaccines-fueling-new-covid-variants-xbb-northeast-antibodies-mutation-strain-immune-imprinting-11672483618

Public-health experts are sounding the alarm about a new Omicron variant dubbed XBB that is rapidly spreading across the Northeast U.S. Some studies suggest it is as different from the original Covid strain from Wuhan as the 2003 SARS virus. Should Americans be worried?

It isn’t clear that XBB is any more lethal than other variants, but its mutations enable it to evade antibodies from prior infection and vaccines as well as existing monoclonal antibody treatments. Growing evidence also suggests that repeated vaccinations may make people more susceptible to XBB and could be fueling the virus’s rapid evolution.

[…] “Such rapid and simultaneous emergence of multiple variants with enormous growth advantages is unprecedented,” a Dec. 19 study in the journal Nature notes. Under selective evolutionary pressures, the virus appears to have developed mutations that enable it to transmit more easily and escape antibodies elicited by vaccines and prior infection.

[…] XBB has evolved to elude antibodies induced by the vaccines and breakthrough infections. Hence, the Nature study suggests, “current herd immunity and BA.5 vaccine boosters may not efficiently prevent the infection of Omicron convergent variants.”

Notably, workers who had received more doses were at higher risk of getting sick. Those who received three more doses were 3.4 times as likely to get infected as the unvaccinated, while those who received two were only 2.6 times as likely.

OBSERVATION – It has been noted on an increasing basis that the nRNA jabs have had the effect to lower the overall viral defenses of the body – making it more susceptible to infections and other diseases. Many other voices (censored) in the medical community warned that the way the vaccines were rolled out – with virtually no testing – was bound cause rapid mutations. Those voices were considered ‘conspiracy’ and ‘misinformation’ by the cancel crowd. Now once again, we are being proven correct.

Economy –

Economists at 16 primary dealers that do business directly with the Federal Reserve, including Barclays, Bank of America, TD Securities, and UBS Group, are predicting a recession in the U.S. in 2023. Two other primary dealers predict the recession will hit in 2024, and five think the U.S. could avoid a recession in 2023 and 2024.

OBSERVATION – This is pretty representative of the split in economist views going into 2023. I see a degree of hopium in a lot of their statements, particularly those who espoused the “transitory inflation” narrative of 2021. Moderated forecasts serve to keep investors from panicking.

Biden / Harris watch –

Biden plans to commemorate the second anniversary of the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol with a White House ceremony, according to a schedule released by his office on Monday.

OBSERVATION – This event can be cross-referenced with CW2. I fully expect biden to once again launch a tirade against half of the country who supported Trump, probably invoking the domestic terrorist meme as he has before. It will be the first real crossing of swords so to speak of the 2024 presidential campaign.

Vice President Kamala Harris is requiring senators, their family members and guest wishing to take a photo with her at her swearing-in ceremony for the new Congress on Tuesday to take Covid tests within 24 hours of the picture.
A message from the U.S. Senate Sergeant-at-Arms Protocol Office was sent to all Senate offices that Harris would require coronavirus tests before photos. According to sources, some senators plan to snub the vice president on the first day of the new Congress because of the requirements.

OBSERVATION – Pitiful excuse for a VP.

CW2/Domestic violence –

Wallowa County in eastern Oregon submitted a petition aimed at forcing a ballot initiative in 2023 that would move the county out of Democrat-led Oregon and into GOP-led Idaho and is part of the Greater Idaho movement aimed to “relocate the Oregon/Idaho border to make both states better.” In doing so has become the 12th Oregonian county to do so.
For the counties to officially move from one state to another it would take the efforts of legislatures in Idaho, Oregon, and the US Congress to make the change.

OBSERVATION – As I’ve noted before, the chances of this realignment happing are nil. The Marxists left running Oregon and in DC will not let this out of their hands as it would be losing power – power over red areas of the country. Yet, this is a growing movement, joining the state of Jefferson (kalifornia) and Liberty (eastern Washington) to separate rural counties from domination by a few dark blue metropolitian areas.

The trend of separation of red from blue will likely accelerate, especially given the ongoing actions at both the state (Oregon, Washington and Kalifornia) level and federal.

CANCEL CULTURE FRONT

Democrat Senator Amy Klobuchar endorses subjecting social media companies to “hefty lawsuits” to force them to “do something” about misinformation.

OBSERVATION – Govt censorship – tyranny.

POLITICAL FRONT –

McCarthy struggled to beat back hard-line conservative opposition and secure enough votes to give him the speakership when the new House of Representatives convenes with a narrow Republican majority on Tuesday. Conservative republicans are saying McCarthy is part of the problem and not the solution.

OBSERVATION - He has been throwing a lot of compromises out there hoping to gain the support of at least 5 of the 9 holdouts. The nature of the compromises only goes to confirm he is part of the status quo crowd, happy to have the seat of power, but not willing to do the peoples business in a manner that supports the people. Most likely, unless something happens soon, there will be several ballots for speaker and who knows what other politicking to get that position.

Strategic Activity / Deployments –

The Army’s latest COVID-19 policy states that Congress’ 2023 defense bill, which rescinded the Department of Defense’s military vaccine mandate, does not address orders given to the National Guard and Reserves, according to documents obtained by the Daily Caller News Foundation.
A November 2021 memo not addressed in the defense bill applied the mandate to National Guard and Reserve troops.

OBSERVATION – The DoD will not do the common sense thing and withdraw the mandate from the Guards and Reserves as well as active duty forces – following the intent of the law. Just further evidence that the woke powers that be in the DoD actually want reenlistment and recruitment to tank and lower combat readiness levels.

China –

WAR WATCH – I am still monitoring for indicators that indicated that China may initiate a more coercive plan to force Taiwan into submission with a potential start of a potential blockade of the island during the Chineese New Years timeframe.

Indicators –
- Russian energy giant Gazprom reports that they sent more gas to China than they originally contracted. Increasing stockpiles of natural gas – as well as other resources – may indicate efforts to mitigate any sanctions brought on by an aggressive action against Taiwan.

- An unusual number of PRC cargo aircraft were noted flying to airbases inland. Now while they were not headed to bases closer to the ocean, the number of flights were very unusual according to OSINT and Chinese observers. May suggest that airborne troops for an assault may be staged further inland for OPSEC purposes.

North/South Korea –

Analysts are suggesting key military developments to watch out for in 2023. First is the development of a solid fuel ICBM to replace the liquid fuel Hwasong 17. Such a rocket would be ready to fire in substantially less time than the Hwasong 17.

Second is the development of a miniaturized warhead to mount on its tactical ballistic missiles. The world is yet to see proof that NK has been able to do this. The intelligence community spent most of 2022 waiting for it to test such a device, but the test never came - 2023 may well be the year.

Finally, 2022 was a record year for NK missile launches and there is no evidence that the will be slowing down any time soon. Some analysts are beginning to consider that these are no longer tests of the missile designs, but are transitioning to training exercises, designed to prepares to use its missiles in a possible conflict.

SK is seeking to open discussions with Washington on the subject of US deployment of nuclear weapons to SK and conducting joint nuclear exercises. The DoD had raised the topic last year but so far biden has rejected the offer.

Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now closing out its ninth month of the “three days to conquer Ukraine” since fighting starting on Feb 24th.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russia is currently working to (re)assemble a military force capable of resuming the offensive in the Donbas while at the same time trying to make defensive preparations for an expected Ukranian offensive as well. Suspected goal for the start of offensive operations is latter half of January at the earliest.

At present, it is capable of very local offensive actions as in the ongoing fighting around Bakhmut and Donetsk.

Russia is also capable of launching more cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure -primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.

While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.

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Russian lawmakers are demanding punishment for commanders over negligence in the death of scores of Russian conscripts killed in a Ukrainian HIMARS strike in Donetsk on New Year’s Eve. The Russian government announced that 63 soldiers had been killed in the strike, although some U.S. intelligence officials said the death toll might be much higher. Russian commanders are being accused of housing the conscripts all together in a hotel along with their ammunition supplies which exploded during the HIMARS strike.

Russian Personnel Issues –-
- Military enlistment office was attacked with firebombs at Perovo district of Moscow

Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Nasty mix of rain and snow throughout most of the 10 day forecast with cold temperatures. Weather forcasts continue with above freezing temperatures for the next couple weeks.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
No significant change in the level and locations of conflict. Some analysts are indicating that the battles northwest of Donetsk have reached their end and Russia is pausing to regroup. Analysts also indicating similar for the battles around Bahkmut noting that Russian attacks are independent company sized and smaller elements, poorly coordinated and with minimal artillery support.

Weather continues to control matters and unusually warm weather across Europe is keeping things very muddy in Ukraine and not permitting the ground to freeze up.

Russian air defenses were busy in Simferopol and Sevastopol Crimea overnight reportedly engaging Ukrainian drones.

OUTLOOK ——
More of the same along the LOC in the east. Analysts see a decrease in Russian capabilities and attack sizes, suggesting that their capabilities are rapidly declining. This decline in capability may impair preparations for Russia’s winter offensive.

Russia has also gone into a quiet period as far as missile/cruise missile/drone attacks. Analysts suggest these are indicators of a growing shortage of those kind of munitions.

Moldova/Transnistria -

Belarus -

Speaking to Belarusian media, Defense Minister Anatoly Bulauko said that Belarusian forces are training to fight against NATO. “[NATO is] an adversary for the Republic of Belarus and the Russian Federation. We are training for war with these states with the [joint] exercises,” he said.

OBSERVATION – Analysts still consider the chances that Belarus will enter the war in Ukraine as very low to not going to happen. Recent exercises and activities have reportedly been more of a defensive nature, rather than offensive. Belarus has on numerous occasions warned of a NATO (primarily from Poland and the Baltic States) invasion of Belarus – and has used it to deflect putins arm twisting to enter the Ukraine conflict at a deeper level.

Israel –

National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, who has called for a harder line towards the Palestinians, walked around the Temple mount site surrounded by police, spurring widespread condemnation from the arab world. A visit to the site in 2000 by Israeli right-winger Ariel Sharon, then opposition leader, infuriated Palestinians. Violence which followed escalated into the second Palestinian uprising, or intifada.

OBSERVATION – Palistianian / Israeli tensions have already been sky high the past year, and this wont help matters any. The act also angered Saudi Arabia, with whom Israel was in the process of trying to establish some degree of normalized relations, based in part due to their common enemy – Iran.

Iran –

Iranian Basji forces have increased lethal attacks on protestors in an apparent attempt to quell the recent increase in protests.

Black Swans -

Watching the substantial series of storms pouring into kalifornia. The next one expected to arrive Wed thru Thurs is expected by forcasters to be one of the most severe in many, many years, and accompanied by gusts in excess of 50 mph. Winds have already downed power lines across N Ca and these winds are even stronger. Storm series hitting every 2-3 days over the next couple week. Some forecasts of over 30 feet of snow in the Sierras.

As I think I noted once before, the danger from this ‘atmospheric river’ is a warmer cell hitting and generating a rain on snow event that can create catastrophic flooding. Kalifornia’s system of lakes and reservoirs can handle excessive precipitation events – if there is a period of time to drain the lakes in preparation for the next storm. This current weather event is not allowing for storage to be regained and if worst happens, the dams will be forced to spill water at max capacity to save the dam. But this will trigger levee losses down stream. Worst case – YES but not unthinkable. Folks living in potential flood zones – even those ‘protected’ by levees – better make plans to bug out if necessary as well as increase their monitoring of their local hydrological conditions.

First hump day of 2023. A slow reporting day.

Economy –

According to CoBank Lead Animal Protein Economist Brian Earnest, both supply and demand side pressures will lead meat and poultry producers to take a cautionary stance on expanding production in 2023. Beef production is set to contract in 2023. CoBank estimates a 5% reduction in beef cow herds.

OBSERVATION – This means that inflationary pressures will continue in the beef market for several years at least because it will take that long to enlarge herds to pre-pandemic levels. Poultry will recover faster once the avian flu is over.

Invasion of Illegals –

Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) released its year-end report showing yet another uptick in the total of fugitive illegal aliens — those who have been ordered deported but have refused to leave the U.S.
According to the report, this number has now reached more than 1.2 million under Biden. This number doesn’t reflect millions released into the US after being caught and have not shown up for their court appearances in the same time frame.

Altogether, the total of illegal aliens living in the U.S. who have either final deportation orders or pending deportation orders reached nearly 4.8 million in Fiscal Year 2022 — an almost 100 percent increase since Fiscal Year 2017.

Biden / Harris watch –

Rumors growing that biden will dump harris as his running mate for 2024, replacing her with another woman – some believe to be Clinton or 0bama.

CANCEL CULTURE FRONT

In the latest release of the Twitter Files, reporter Matt Taibbi revealed how the State Department attempted to go to the media with information about suspect Twitter accounts. Twitter executives were under pressure from a a fledgling analytic/intelligence arms of the State Department to follow their requests.

POLITICAL FRONT –

McCarthy became the first person in one hundred years to not win house speaker in the first round of voting. In fact, three votes were taken yesterday and the only republican that gained ground was Jordan.

OBSERVATION - The speaker battle will define the fight for the heart and soul of the republican party actions during the next congressional session. Moderates are more inclined not to rock the boat and essentially process as democrat-lite manners and policies. Conservative members demand a change the method of operations. Some how, moderates consider the goals of a balanced budget and govt accountability things the public are not interested in.

Domestic / International Terror (modified)-

Well, one mystery solved -
Two men were arrested on New Year’s Eve for allegedly shutting down four Washington state power substations in late December that led to power outages for thousands across Pierce County. Matthew Greenwood and Jeremy Crahan have been charged with conspiracy to damage energy facilities and Greenwood faces a separate charge of possessing illegal short-barreled rifles.

According to court documents, Greenwood, 32, and Crahan, 40, plotted to knock out power from four substations. While power was out in the first two facilities, the pair broke into a local business to steal from the cash register, Greenwood allegedly told investigators after his arrest.

Investigators identified Greenwood and Crahan almost immediately after the attacks took place by using cell phone data that allegedly showed both men in the vicinity of all four substations, according to court documents. Surveillance images cited in the court documents also showed images of one of the men and of the getaway car.

OBSERVATION - It does seem excessive to take out 4 substations just to rob a few stores. That may be due to simple lack of understanding of what substation serviced what area.
Perhaps on another level was the ability to use cell phone data to locate the men at the substations - tracking ability that govt could use against (and probably has) patriots in the future.

Strategic Activity / Deployments –

The U.S. Air Force is laying the structural foundation for a long-range over-the-horizon radar known as the Tactical Mobile Over-the-horizon Radar (TACMOR) on the western Pacific island of Palau. Air Force will likely use this radar as an early warning system for anti-ship ballistic missiles and land-strike ballistic missiles launched out of China.

China –

I’ve encountered no new indicators/contraindicators to report.

Japan –

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said Wednesday that his country would deepen its military alliance with the U.S. under its new national security strategy.

Over the past two weeks, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army-Navy Liaoning Carrier Strike Group has been operating in and around Japanese waters near Okinawa and the Nansei Islands.

OBSERVATION – Japan’s accelerated military build-up efforts with increased diplomatic / military cooperation with others in the region points to how serious Japan considers China’s expansionist threats.

Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now closing out its ninth month of the “three days to conquer Ukraine” since fighting starting on Feb 24th.

At present, it is capable of very local offensive actions as in the ongoing fighting around Bakhmut and Donetsk.

While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.

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More Kremlin maneuvering between Wagner Group and the MoD. With the failure to capture Bahkmut and the recent HIMARS strike that took out as many as 600 soldiers, Wagner has been having their narrative of success sharply hit.

Russian sources report that poor COMSEC by soldiers hit with HIMARS stike was the cause of it being targeted. Apparently georeferenced photos hit the interwebs, enabling Ukrainian intelligence to quickly pull the data together and launch the strike.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
No significant change in the level and locations of conflict. Wagner Group is catching flak from some Russian milbloggers for its failure to capture Bahkmut after 5 months of fighting for it and the majority of Russian logistical support given.

OUTLOOK ——
Continued status quo. Ukraine seems to be happy to maintain the defensive in the Bahkmut - Donetsk zone as it requires a smaller force and Russia hasn’t mustered the men and equipment necessary to swing the force ratio into their favor. As a result, Russia has continued to absorb heavy casualities.
Once the weather cools enough to freeze the ground, the actions from both sides should become dynamic very quickly.

Iran –

As the protests have continued, Iran has tried to shape the situation as Kurdish and Sunni supported insurgencies. In part this is correct, but there is also a broader level of support from other sectors of the country. IRGC and Basji forces continue to increase brutal efforts to suppress protests.