Posted on 01/01/2023 6:02:12 AM PST by Godzilla
Threats surround us on a daily basis. Being able to recognize them and react are essential. This is ongoing commentary of those threats
July is ending - where has this year gone?
Globalism / Great Reset –
John Kerry, US climate “czar” states that the destruction of the farming industry is essential to achieving ‘Net Zero’:
“Agriculture contributes about 33% of all the emissions of the world. And we can’t get to net zero—we don’t get this job done—unless agriculture is front and centre as part of the solution.”
“You just can’t continue to both warm the planet, while also expecting to feed it. It doesn’t work. So we have to reduce emissions from the food system.”
OBSERVATION - I’ve noted time and again the attacks by the globalists on our agricultural industry. Most prominently against the cattle industry but they have been spreading towards the rest of the agriculture community. Kerry is essentially telling us to drop dead. Irony here is the fortune Kerry is tied into is based agriculture.
**
Biden appears to be facing increasing demands to declare a climate emergency, like the one declared for the COVID-19 pandemic that had a devastating impact on the country, warns a top advocate for the U.S. oil and gas industry?
“They’re leaning to that direction,” U.S. Oil and Gas Association President Tim Stewart recently told Just the News. “If you grant the president’s emergency powers to declare a climate emergency, it’s just like COVID.”
Stewart also said such a declaration would give the president “vast and unchecked authority to shut down everything from communications to infrastructure.”
He said infrastructure would include water and electricity, and that Biden also could freeze assets under such a declaration.
Oregon Rep. Earl Blumenauer recently introduced legislation to require Biden to make such a declaration that also was co-sponsored by 62 congressional Democrats.
OBSERVATION - Didn’t I just rant about a forced global warming “emergency” and wuhan styled shut downs? Not conspiracy tails folks, but a real effort by the globalists to force their agenda.
OF SPECIAL NOTE - This seems to be a move to start using the club. Psychological moving of the sheeple on the scare of global climate disaster just isn’t moving the needle - it hardly gets any measurement in polls coverning the concerns of Americans. So next will be the use of the club.
Economy –
Trucking giant Yellow collapsed on Sunday, ceasing operations immediately and leaving some 30,000 workers without jobs.
The closure is the biggest in terms of jobs and revenue in the U.S. trucking industry. The company, which received $700 million in federal COVID relief funds in 2020, is preparing to file for bankruptcy and is in talks to sell off all or parts of the business. The nearly 100-year-old firm is known for its competitive pricing and has more than 12,000 trucks shipping freight across the US for brands including Walmart and Home Depot.
Yellow’s subsidiaries may be GONE too:
YRC Freight reflects the Yellow Transportation (founded in 1924 in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma) purchase of and subsequent merger with Roadway (founded in 1930 in Akron, Ohio).
YRC Freight is the largest subsidiary of Yellow with corporate headquarters in Overland Park, Kan.
Other Yellow subsidiaries include Reddaway, Holland and New Penn.
OBSERVATION - biden et al like to beat their chest and try to sell us a *(%$ sandwich that our economy is doing the best ever. The trucking industry is one sector that can be used to measure just how well the economy is. Health economy keeps trucking busy and trucks on the road. biden’s disastrous petroleum policies with sky high diesel prices combined with wuhan lock down aftershocks and now reduced economic activity is cutting things to the quick. Loss of trucking assets will further hinder any post-recession economic growth. Factories won’t get raw materials or parts. They also won’t be able to ship finished products out. This is the start of Supply Chain 2.0 failures.
**
Automaker Ford estimates its electric vehicle division will lose $4.5 billion this year, $1.5 billion more than it predicted in March.
Fortune said Ford’s revised forecast comes from a sluggish receptiveness by consumers to the new battery-powered vehicles.
So far this year, Ford’s EV division has shed nearly $1.8 billion, Fortune reported.
OBSERVATION - Ford stood alone in rejecting bailouts under 0bama, and thrived because of it. Times have changed as well as company leadership and they tossed their hat into the total electric ring. Now they are facing the bite that the consumer market isn’t thrilled with electrics and that sentiment isn’t likely to change any time soon as citizens are souring to the incessant rant of the green marxists to kill petroleum. Ford isn’t alone, other carmakers are facing similar losses. Ford’s is the most dramatic as it was in a good position economically before falling for the electric boondoggle.
**
ExxonMobil CEO Darren Woods projected high oil demand in the second half of 2023.
OBSERVATION - Oil demand traditionally drops in the face of a recession. These projections provide support to the view some have that the recession will not hit until 2024.
CW2 / Domestic violence -
In the state of Illinois, illegals can now become police officers. People who are breaking the law by their presence here can now arrest American citizens.
OBSERVATION - The passage of this law, as well as similar passed by different levels of blue dominated cities thru states will face stiff constitutional challenges. But to now essentially militarize illegals who have no allegiance to the American Constitution or culture is just going to inflame matters. Already saw that with a Somali police officer in Minnesota who shot and killed a victim in cold blood a few years ago. Illegals as police will give the leftists an army ready to violate the rights of Americans at will.
Terrorism -
Officials are still sorting out the illegal bio lab found in kalifornia and its implications remain shocking with the amount of disease samples being found.
POLITICAL FRONT –
The DOJ was trying to arrest Devon Archer ahead of his bombshell testimony Monday about Joe Biden’s involvement in his son Hunter’s Ukraine business when he was VP. US attorney in the SDNY Damian Williams issued a menacing letter Saturday - telling Judge Abrams to order Archer to go to jail immediately to serve a one year sentence for his fraud conviction.
The weaponized DOJ now “clarifies” they won’t try to prevent Devon Archer from testifying tomorrow.
Devon Archer, served on the board of Ukrainian energy company Burisma with Hunter Biden and knows where all the bodies are. His testimony could potentially make a direct connection between Hunter Biden’s overseas, potentially illegal, business dealings with President Biden.
OBSERVATION - This action over the weekend smells incredibly that of desperation. The essentially lawless attempt to prevent testimony to congress should remove the veil for all to see the corruption of the DoJ and the biden administration for such a blatant attempt to silence those willing to testify about the biden criminal ring. One big question is whether or not Archer sees the effort as a warning to “Epstine” him - coercing silence.
**
Trump is suddenly facing more charges over his alleged retention of ‘classified’ documents. Many see the timing as an effort to divert attention from hunter’s legal adventures.
Biden Watch –
Biden remains of vacation. . . . .
China –
China’s factory activity contracted for a fourth consecutive month in July, while non-manufacturing activity slowed to its weakest this year as the world’s second-largest economy struggles to revive growth momentum in the wake of soft global demand.
The official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index came in at 49.3 in July — compared with 49.0 in June, 48.8 in May and 49.2 in April — according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics released on Monday. July’s reading was slightly better than the 49.2 median forecast in a Reuters poll.
Monday’s figures also showed China posting its weakest official non-manufacturing PMI reading this year, coming in at 51.5 in July — compared with 53.2 in June, 54.5 in May and 56.4 in April. A PMI reading above 50 points to an expansion in activity, while a reading below that level suggests a contraction.
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/31/china-manufacturing-pmi-july-2023.html
OBSERVATION - I’ve been noting China’s economic woes that Xi has been working to keep off the radar. OPEC+ had earlier this year based its production numbers on the anticipation that the Chinese economy would finally take off again. Clearly it hasn’t due to demand that is still lacking coming out of wuhan.
North/South Korea –
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, in a meeting with the Chinese Politburo delegation visiting Pyongyang, vowed to develop the two countries’ relations to a “new high.” The delegation was in North Korea to celebrate the Korean War armistice.
OBSERVATION - With the end of the global wuhan plandemic, NK is struggling to find more economic support to bolster its flagging economy and fund its aggressive military programs - especially in the nuclear and ballistic missile realm. NK has historically been a parasite to China as well as its tool for many, many years now and with rising tensions towards the west, China may see NK and Kim as useful fools to dilute Western attentions.
Japan –
Japanese defense officials warned the international community is facing its greatest post-war trial and has entered a new era of crisis. At the same time, Tokyo identified China, Russia and North Korea as the countries that pose a threat to Japan, according to the “Defense of Japan 2023” white paper.
The release follows the latest revisions to the national defense strategies that call for Japan’s need to possess a counterattack capability, increased defense spending and a procurement plan and the build-up of military capabilities.
In the white paper’s preface, Japan Defense Minister Yasukazu Hamada said that the international community was facing its greatest post-war trial since World War II, and the world has entered a new era of crisis, including Russia’s aggression against Ukraine.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated July 9, 2023
Russia is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine, relying on Russian doctrinal defense in depth to blunt the Ukrainian offensive. With Ukraine lacking air superiority, Russia has taken chance in using its aircraft (helicopters and fast movers) to more directly assist its ground forces, though at an increasing loss of airframes.
The month plus of Ukraine offensive action has forced Russia to give up terrain on all fronts - most notably in the Bakhmut area where Russian forces are now being in danger of being encircled.
Russian reserves are increasingly being used to try to stop Ukrainian advances. Just how big and combat capable of a reserve force is debatable. Reports that Russia has amassed about 180,000 troops opposite of Kharkiv may be a ploy to freeze some of the Ukraine forces out of the offensive to the south. However, this number includes cooks, bottle washers and other logistic elements, so the ‘teeth’ numbers are likely much lower.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. Recent attacks indicate the Russia has started to produce its own Shahed drones with Iranian assistance. Russia capable of continued, though limited, attacks in this arena.
Russia is capable of launching small scale attacks in various sectors of company and small sized elements, but any large scale offensive action in the face of the heavy demands from defending against the Ukrainian offensive are essentially nil.
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Yesterday, 3 civilian ships seem to have successfully challenged Russian threats to Black Sea navigation. Ams1, Sahin 2 and Yilmaz Kaptan sailed direct routes, openly advertising destination Ukraine over AIS. Their origins: Israel, Greece and Turkey/Georgia
Kerch Bridge update –
The Kerch bridge is being fenced off with anti naval drone barriers to prevent another seaborne attack from Ukraine drones.
Economic Impact –
The Russian ruble has lost 50% of its value over the past year.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Thunderstorms early in the week with temperatures in eastern Ukraine forecast to reach the 100s towards the end.
Longer term forecasts for mid to late October include cold and rains across Europe. Highs only in the 50s and 60s Fahrenheit.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
More information on recent actions along the southern and eastern fronts has trickled out. Most significant confirms the gains inferred to recently by Ukraine in the south as well as the probable collapse of the Russian attempted counteroffensive in the east. One of the biggest things being noted and I had to back to some of the posted videos was the glaring lack of Russian artillery in the Velyka Novosilka Axis as Ukraine forces reached and likely have breached the Russian line of defense.
The Deep State Telegram channel says that Ukrainian forces have retaken terrain on the Svatove front after a Russian advance last week. RUMINT in Svatove, that bodies of Russian dead have not been taken away from the overflowing morgue for a week. The stink of death hangs over the city.
Saudi Arabia offereing to host peace talks between Ukraine and Russia. See Saudi Arabia below.
Velyka Novosilka Axis-
Russian channels saying Ukrainian Armed Forces has continued forward, taking control of the town of Urozhaine, decimating Russians with cluster bombs, artillery and air support. If true, Ukrainian troops are now a 21 hour walk to the Mariupol.
Partisan Resistance ——
Ukrainian partisans blew up a Russian military engineering facility in occupied Mariupol, with many Russian soldiers inside. The facility was used to construct anti-tank dragon’s teeth among other things. - report by Ukraine’s Center for National Resistance
OUTLOOK –
With OPSEC still tight, it appears Russia had a very bad week last week. Top of the list appears to be the loss of the effectiveness of minefields and lack of artillery to slow the Ukraine forces down. As i’ve noted above much of these appear to be largely gone or greatly degraded.
More bad news for Russia is its apparent failed counter offensive in the Kharkiv / Svatov region with Ukraine regaining the ground initially lost. Russia’s commitment of precious resources to stage such an offensive now has placed its defense against Ukraine in the south and in the Bakhmut region at greater risk.
Ukraine continues to hammer Russian logistics and that is becoming increasing apparent on the front lines. Russia is ill prepared to adjust its operations and front line troops are increasingly unsupported. Apparent gains along the Tokmak and Velyka Novosilka lines appear to have further out maneuvered Russian forces, greatly increasing their loss of support from the rear.
In the Bakhmut region, Ukraine killer drones continue to swarm the few roads available to haul supples to the increasingly surrounded Russian forces, making resupply runs more of a death race than anything else. What the killer drones may miss, drone adjusted artillery takes care of the rest.
NOTE - There are references to Russian “dragon teeth” anti armor defenses that line the main line of defense. These concrete pyramids are essentially hollow and are not anchored together. For anyone who’s visited the German Siegfried Line, system of pillboxes and strongpoints built along the German western frontier in the 1930s and greatly expanded in 1944, the dragon’s teeth there are solid and tied into an underground grid of reinforced concrete making them virtually impossible to push aside unlike the Russian doppelgängers.
Poland –
Polish officials report that the country’s border guards are being attacked on a daily basis by Belarus assailants who are using equipment provided by Wagner .
OBSERVATION - Polish hype concerning Wagner and potential threats are reaching new heights. The risk is that a provocation is being developed to have Poland strike Belarus militarily so that Russian could then justify direct attacks. Poland has been a key supply and support site for NATO support to Ukraine. That Russian attack will certainly bring Poland and likely the Baltic Nations and Romania immediately into the fight. A frightening expansion of the war then would develop with the activation of Article 5 bringing the rest of NATO into direct conflict.
ONE ADDITIONAL NOTE - Prior to the start of the Ukraine war, Poland came very close to a war with Belarus over its support of moving migrants into the country. This resulted in Poland construction its fence and Belarus backed down considerably from its support of illegal trafficking into Poland. Now the threat of illegals pouring back into Poland (as a gateway into the rest of Europe) is in the forefront combined with Wagner military threats.
Saudi Arabia –
Officials from the Saudi Arabia told reporters that they will soon be hosting a peace summit on behalf of Ukraine with representatives from a diverse group of nations in attendance.
Those taking part in the summit will include Ukraine, as well as Brazil, India, South Africa and several other countries, the official said. A high-level official from U.S. President Joe Biden’s administration also is expected to attend, the official said.
OBSERVATION - Interesting move, except that russia has stated it will not take part in the summit.
Syria -
Russia claimed MQ-9 of the U.S. anti-terrorist coalition on the morning of July 30 dangerously approached an Su-34 aircraft of the at a distance of less than 100 meters.
OBSERVATION - HILARIOUS, but Russia is in cahoots with Iran and Syria in an effort to force the US out of eastern Syria.
Misc of Note –
Panic buying of rice due to India ceasing export has hit the US. Rice, for those in the preparedness community is one of the staples of long term food storage. May I offer an alternative - millet. Yes, the wonderful seed often fed to pet birds is an excellent substitute for rice. It is more affordable, and has much higher nutritional value than rice all the while providing the same, dependable long term storage. It cooks up just like rice and has a mild nutty flavor. Source like Winco make it possible to obtain it in 25 lb bulk bags.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Schuab’s daughter is on record stating climate shutdown were going to happen whether we like it or not.
OBSERVATION - Our benevolent overlords have spoken.
**
“’Presented as a measure to protect Australians from false, misleading or deceptive information, or from information intended to cause serious harm, the bill actually is ‘a dangerous attempt to gain control and limit our freedom,’ according to Michelle Pearse, CEO of the Australian Christian Lobby.” the report explained.
The measure is “especially dangerous for Christians who want to express an alternate view to woke culture on gender and sexuality and for those who want to speak out against abortion,” she said.
“The bill is based on providing the media watchdog, the Australian Communications and Media Authority, with the power to strictly regulate what they interpret as harmful information and expression on online platforms like social media,” Pearse told Decision.
OBSERVATION - Australia (as well as many other countries) are serving as the ‘beta’ test zones for WEF inspired policies - chief of which is the control of free speech and thought. The outcome from the wuhan plandemic has demonstrated that the most effective voices must be silenced. Arguments counter to the narrative have to be stopped. The momentum is also growing to criminalize those who ‘spread’ misinformation via fines and even prison time. How dare we challenge our global overlords.
Economy –
A new CBS News/YouGov poll found that a majority 65 percent of Americans view the economy as “bad.” Specifically, the survey of 2,181 U.S. adult residents revealed that 61 percent described the economy as “struggling;” 56 percent said “uncertain;” 36 percent said “unfair;” and 27 percent said “punishing.” What’s even more damning is that a majority of the respondents placed either “a great deal” (44 percent) or some (36 percent) of the blame on Biden’s disastrous economic policies.
OBSERVATION - So far the regime’s efforts to put lipstick on the pig that is our economy hasn’t worked, as the people out there actually paying the bills see reality versus the entitled class within the DC beltway.
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Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago president Austan Goolsbee said Monday that he hasn’t made up his mind about whether to raise interest rates or stop hiking at the Fed’s next policy meeting in September, emphasizing that “nothing is off the table.”
The Fed’s goal, he said during an interview on Yahoo! Finance Live (video above), is to “stick on the golden path” and “get inflation down without causing a recession.”
“Thus far,” he added, “we are on the golden path.”
OBSERVATION - For the Fed, they only have a hammer and that makes everything look like a nail. Granted, the recession scenario expected by many economists to hit this year hasn’t fully blossomed as the many indicators suggested that it would doesn’t mean we are out of the woods yet. Housing and commercial property markets are connoting to be hammered, montage rates at decades high levels, REAL wage growth is still negative at current inflation rates and other sectors of the economy that are foundational such as the petroleum industry are being threatened with regulation into extinction. When our economy was far healthier in the Before Years, it only took the deliberate mismanagement of the wuhan plandemic to throw it into a tailspin. Our economy is barely able to handle the post wuhan environment while facing considerably more threats. The can may have been kicked down the road to 2024, but the reckoning will come.
**
Lending conditions at U.S. banks are tight and likely to get tighter, according to a Federal Reserve survey released Monday.
The Fed’s closely watched Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey showed that while credit conditions got more strict, demand declined as well.
Those results are important as economists who expect a recession believe that the most likely source will be from the banking system, which has had to respond to a series of 11 interest rate hikes as well as a momentary crisis in March when three midsize institutions failed.
OBSERVATION - Access to funding is critical for small businesses - and higher interest rates combined with stricter standard to qualify will and likely already have choked that portion of the economy. Throttling down small businesses greases the skids for a recession by taking a large sector of the economy out of play and make recovery even more difficult and prolonged.
**
A top economist predicted that U.S. unemployment will rise and jeopardize the Federal Reserve’s desire to avoid a recession.
Vanguard’s Joe Davis told Bloomberg’s “What Goes Up” podcast that while a spike in unemployment will suppress wage growth and help inflation fall to the Fed’s target level of 2%, it will also ruin hopes for a “soft landing,” where inflation falls without a recession or big job losses.
Business Insider reported that most banks expect unemployment to rise above 4% in the next 12 months as the Fed’s interest-rate hikes affect the labor market.
“It’s going to take some labor market weakness to go that last yard, as many call it, from 3% trend inflation down to 2%,” Davis, Vanguard’s chief global economist and head of investment strategy, told Bloomberg.
“Almost everyone has a rise in the unemployment rate of at least 30 or 40 basis points, so going above 4% over the next year. Well, historically, that has been 100% associated with a recession — now, not necessarily deep in magnitude, but a recession.”
https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/economist-unemployment-rising/2023/07/31/id/1129110/
OBSERVATION - Like I said, we are not out of the woods yet.
CW2 / Domestic violence -
Antifa / Transtifa and related groups continue to operate on a low simmer setting, with no major trigger events to muster support for anything other than local events and even then with lack luster trurnout.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Devon Archer’s congressional testimony has sent democrat apologists into a mega spin cycle via a combination of no reporting of the details / selective reporting of the details and misrepresentation of what was said and what was at stake. For most, his testimony was devastating and revealed what we already knew - biden lied, hunter cashed in on his political ‘connections’ and the illegalities are stacked one upon the other as the DoJ tries to cover them up. This criminal operation makes Watergate looks like child’s play. The evidence of political corruption is vindicating Trump and should cause both impeachments to be overturned - if the Republicans had any spine.
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Interesting thought by Redstate - what if democrats used impeachment as away to remove biden as the 2024 candidate and replace him with a ‘better’ one?
**
Continued rumors that special proscutor Smith may seek pre-trial confinement of Trump when his indictments finally spill out in the classified documents witch-hunt.
Biden Watch –
Biden remains on vacation. . . . .
Illegal Immigration –
Concerns growing in the medical community of the plethora of diseases entering the country along with the illegals. One big ticket item has caught their attention is leprosy, the biblical plague from the Old and New Testaments.
That’s according to the CDC, which says that there is “rising evidence that leprosy has become endemic in the southeastern United States.”
According to researchers from the Kansas City University–Graduate Medical Education/Advanced Dermatology and Cosmetic Surgery Consortium raised concerns about the rise in the number of cases in the U.S.:
Leprosy has been historically uncommon in the United States; incidence peaked around 1983, and a drastic reduction in the annual number of documented cases occurred from the 1980s through 2000. However, since then, reports demonstrate a gradual increase in the incidence of leprosy in the United States. The number of reported cases has more than doubled in the southeastern states over the last decade. According to the National Hansen’s Disease Program, 159 new cases were reported in the United States in 2020; Florida was among the top reporting states.
https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/29/8/22-0367_article
One of their conclusions - researchers to suspect “that international migration of persons with leprosy is a potential source of autochthonous transmission.” They noted that “The number of international migrants in North America increased from 27.6 million persons in 1990 to 58.7 million in 2020, so a link to migration may account for the increase in incidence of leprosy in historically nonendemic areas.”
OBSERVATION - Already, the types of diseases entering the US is staggering, according to U.S. Customs and Border Patrol (CBP):
The Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) has designated the following conditions as communicable diseases of public health significance that apply to immigration medical examinations conducted in the United States:
Gonorrhea;
Hansen’s Disease (Leprosy), infectious;
Syphilis, infectious stage; and
Tuberculosis (TB), Active—Only a Class A TB diagnosis renders an applicant inadmissible to the United States. Under current Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) guidelines, Class A TB means TB that is clinically active and communicable.
We really don’t need a covert China-linked bio lab in Kalifornia when we have millions crossing the border with all this.
China –
Chinese incursions into Taiwan’s surrounding air and sea zones have continued to be steady to slightly increasing. Some analysts consider August to be one of the periods of time where favorable sea conditions could support an amphibious assault Taiwan.
IMHO, China is unlikely to launch such an assault at this time, they may used the period for exercises to practice such an assault.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated July 9, 2023
Russia is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine, relying on Russian doctrinal defense in depth to blunt the Ukrainian offensive. With Ukraine lacking air superiority, Russia has taken chance in using its aircraft (helicopters and fast movers) to more directly assist its ground forces, though at an increasing loss of airframes.
The month plus of Ukraine offensive action has forced Russia to give up terrain on all fronts - most notably in the Bakhmut area where Russian forces are now being in danger of being encircled.
Russian reserves are increasingly being used to try to stop Ukrainian advances. Just how big and combat capable of a reserve force is debatable. Reports that Russia has amassed about 180,000 troops opposite of Kharkiv may be a ploy to freeze some of the Ukraine forces out of the offensive to the south. However, this number includes cooks, bottle washers and other logistic elements, so the ‘teeth’ numbers are likely much lower.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. Recent attacks indicate the Russia has started to produce its own Shahed drones with Iranian assistance. Russia capable of continued, though limited, attacks in this arena.
Russia is capable of launching small scale attacks in various sectors of company and small sized elements, but any large scale offensive action in the face of the heavy demands from defending against the Ukrainian offensive are essentially nil.
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Over half a dozen military conscription offices were attacked with Molotov cocktails yesterday across the country. In most instances, the people who did it were pensioners as old as 80 years old.
Though unconfirmed, in some cases the arsonist claim they were instructed to do it by an individual presenting himself as an FSB employee.
Kerch Bridge update –
The bridge has been closed over the past several days over fears of another Ukraine attack as well as to facilitate repairs.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Thunderstorms early in the week with temperatures in eastern Ukraine forecast to reach the 100s towards the end.
Longer term forecasts for mid to late October include cold and rains across Europe. Highs only in the 50s and 60s Fahrenheit.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Information continues to be tight concerning operations along the front from both sides. Kharkiv was targeted with some Shaed drones overnight and scattered Russia artillery strikes along the entirety of the front.
Satellite images show that the railroad bridge in Chongar, one of only two railroad crossings connecting Crimea to the rest of Ukraine is severely damaged after a Storm Shadow Strike earlier this week. Russia relies heavily on rail to move men and material, because it doesn’t have the road lift capacity. When the Kersch Bridge rail road portion gets taken out - when, not if- Russian forces will find themselves in a very severe pickle.
Ukraine resumed drone strikes in Moscow, striking the “IQ-Quarter” the same Building which was Hit a few days ago, the Drone is reported to have struck the 17th Floor which is occupied by the Russian Ministry of Digital Transformation. The drone strike also caused Moscows air port to temporarily close.
According to Russian military sources, “The Armed Forces of Ukraine made an attempt to attack the patrol ships “Sergey Kotov” and “Vasily Bykov” of the Black Sea Fleet with three sea unmanned boats, performing tasks to control navigation in the southwestern part of the Black Sea, 340 km southwest of Sevastopol. The navigation “control” is linked to the attempt to blockade ships from primarily shipping Ukraine grain. No word on any successful strikes by the drone ships.
OUTLOOK –
Ukraine continues to hammer Russia’s C3 and logistics nodes while its aggressive and successful counter battery fire neutralizes the much larger Russian artillery advantage. Analysts note that Ukraine has hit key rail nodes throughout southern and eastern occupied Ukraine - massively disrupting Russian logics efforts that are now having to bring supples and material in to Ukraine from the east and not from the Crimea region.
The progress of the offensives in southern Ukraine is taking shape much like those last fall against Russian forces west of the Dniper River. Cut off supplies and reinforcements while maintaining pressure that forces Russian to try to maintain the same level of artillery and ground troop actions. This is now on a much larger scale.
It seems from all the OPSEC related silence on Ukrainian actions that there may be a tactical pause in effect to consolidate the breach in the so called first Russian defensive line in order to assess Russian movements of troops to reinforce the defense and to bring other Ukrainian forces into position to exploit weak points and success. The tactical situation is dynamic and fluid and can change quickly.
Final note, Ukraine has hit Moscow twice in as many days. Its own long range drone capability - the so called “Beaver” drones - is rapidly developing and in the intermediate term cause all kinds of problems with Russian PR by bringing the war to the mostly sheltered denizens of Moscow. The fact that they have had success - in the most recent case of hitting the same govt target twice in a row, - has embarrassed the putin administration and has dismayed the weakness of the Russian military to protect the city. Russia’s options - throw dozens of ballistic and cruise missiles at Ukraine targets to get marginally similar results. Though many analysts thought that Russia would be out of such weapons by now, clearly they cannot sustain massive assaults like those a couple weeks ago, where several dozen ballastic/cruise missiles were fired over the course of several days. Now the rate is down to a handful and are being wasted mostly on terror efforts (striking civilian apartments) than strategic targets.
Belarus -
Wagner presence continues to grow as they establish their operation base and move out to start ‘training’ Belarus troops. They continue the PR push threatening to cause mischief against Poland and Baltic nations.
Poland –
Armor heavy units continue to be positioned near the Belarus border.
Europe / NATO General –
“The presence of Wagner fighters in Belarus poses a serious threat to Lithuania, Poland and Latvia,” President of Lithuania Gitanas Nausėda said. According to him, they started monitoring the situation and intensified intelligence measures, because Wagner can be used for provocations.
Africa general –
The situation in West Africa is poised to spin dangerously out of control as a regional conflict is becoming a potential reality.
Both Burkina Faso and Mali announced that they would go to war to assist Niger if ECOWAS intervenes. ECOWAS has given Niger a week to dissolve the coup and jihadist factions are watching. France has also issued an ultimatum to Niger.
In the African Republic, there are now several military bases of Western countries with a total contingent of troops of 1.5 thousand French and 1 thousand US military.
This fight is developing along the lines of “junta-ruled” nations backed by Russia , and civilian-governed nations backed by France, US and the EU.
OBSERVATION - Though Russia backs the coup in Niger, the amount of support they can be expected to provide would largely be cheering from the sidelines as the war in Ukraine has severely tasked its military are resources.
A regional war would throw the region into a deep famine and economic disaster, in addition to associate increase in diseases. There is a remote chance of direct French and US involvement due to the presence of forces in the country. Remote, but not out of the question, especially France which has deep ties to the country.
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Other African news, political leaders in South Africa have become more vocal in condoning growing support to exterminate all whites in the country (Boers). Since apartheid was removed in SA, the nation has spun downward into a third world cesspool, with corrupt govt after corrupt govt failing to meet even the basics needed for the population. The white Afrikaners have over the past few years withdrawn from society and have worked to protect their farms - the only thing that is working in the country - from being pilfered. Should the black racists in SA have their way, a famine of huge magnitude will strike southern Africa as the blacks there have demonstrated time and again that they are incapable of running the agricultural system on their own. Currently SA’s power grid is in shambles and its water supply system is falling apart as well.
Black Swans
Hurricane / Typhoon season’s peak is approaching this month. Already China has been hammered with record rain and our Gulf and Atlantic coastlines are certainly vulnerable. Pay attention to your local weather forecasts and don’t be caught unawares. Major storm(s) could impact agriculture as well as fuel supplies.
Thank you.
Best reporting anywhere. Thanks Godzilla.
Economy –
In a rebuke to the biden regime’s bleats that the US economy is doing great, the US’s credit rating has been cut to AA+ from AAA, in an unexpected blow to the world’s biggest economy.
The rating agency said its downgrade “reflects the expected fiscal deterioration over the next three years, a high and growing general government debt burden, and the erosion of governance relative to ‘AA’ and ‘AAA’ rated peers over the last two decades that has manifested in repeated debt limit standoffs and last-minute resolutions.”
“The rating downgrade of the United States reflects the expected fiscal deterioration over the next three years, a high and growing general government debt burden, and the erosion of governance” relative to peers, said Fitch in a statement.
**
The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a massive, unexpected drop in America’s oil inventories. The API’s survey data showed a week-over-week crude oil decline of 15.4 million barrels – far surpassing analysts’ expectations of a 900,000-barrel drop. Gasoline inventories saw another 1.68-million-barrel decline, which puts inventories 7% less than the five-year average. (FO)
OBSERVATION - This is not a good trend. Inventories drifting down do not provide much buffer in the event of a supply disruption - a concern compounded by the lack of an viable strategic reserve, which biden continues to refuse to refill. Prices here in the Redoubt have climbed 20 cents/ gal over the past couple weeks - and this in the face of the tail end of the summer tourist season.
CW2 / Domestic violence -
In view of the ham handed new indictments against Trump, I’ve pondered just what may trigger a “hot” CW2 scenario - and those thoughts scared the snot out of me. While the Trump indictments are an attempt at death by a thousand cuts, there are far more lethal concerns out there - Assassinations.
Top of the list - an attempt against Trump. There is enough vitriol and calls for violence in the leftist interweb and yes, even overt MSM realms calling for violence that this is scary. There are plenty out there on the right who would see this as the time to start retaliation in kind. This retaliation would also trigger Federal crackdowns and even unconstitutional attempts to forcibly disarm the country. This brings to mind Lexington and Concord from the Revolutionary War. It goes down hill from there.
Our under protected USSC - should Thomas or other conservative judges (yes plural) get hit - the democrat controlled Senate - with help by the half dozen or so RINOs, would push radical leftists into the vacant seats.
We haven’t seen political assassinations in our country for a long time. But they are building to become the next step in the escalation of the left’s campaign to silence and eliminate opposition.
Wuhan Plandemic –
Believe it or not, the MSM has been giving air time to nut jobs who say that we need to return to wearing masks…..
Even more unbelievable is the effort by the CDC to mandate annual wuhan shots, just like the flu shots.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Weaponization of the DoJ can no longer be denied following Trump’s indictment on 4 federal counts:
- Conspiracy to defraud the US
- Conspiracy to Obstruct an Official Proceeding
- Obstruction of and Attempt to Obstruct an Official Proceeding
- Conspiracy against Rights
It is *very* important to note he was not charged with Seditious Conspiracy or Insurrection
The Trump case has been assigned to U.S. District Judge Tanya S. Chutkin, who is described by AP News as “the toughest punisher” of J6 cases, placing all defendants in all cases behind bars.
OBSERVATION - these charges reek of desperation by the Swamp. In essence, the DoJ has made First Amendment rights unconstitutional and illegal. These indictments move the hands of the spicy time clock several minutes to D-day. I refer readers to other conservative commentators for better expression of just how far the DoJ has drifted into totalitarian over this.
Biden Watch –
Biden remains on vacation. . . . .
Cyber attacks/warfare –
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated July 9, 2023 (under review Aug 2, 2023)
Russia is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine, relying on Russian doctrinal defense in depth to blunt the Ukrainian offensive. With Ukraine lacking air superiority, Russia has taken chance in using its aircraft (helicopters and fast movers) to more directly assist its ground forces, though at an increasing loss of airframes.
The month plus of Ukraine offensive action has forced Russia to give up terrain on all fronts - most notably in the Bakhmut area where Russian forces are now being in danger of being encircled.
Russian reserves are increasingly being used to try to stop Ukrainian advances. Just how big and combat capable of a reserve force is debatable. Reports that Russia has amassed about 180,000 troops opposite of Kharkiv may be a ploy to freeze some of the Ukraine forces out of the offensive to the south. However, this number includes cooks, bottle washers and other logistic elements, so the ‘teeth’ numbers are likely much lower.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. Recent attacks indicate the Russia has started to produce its own Shahed drones with Iranian assistance. Russia capable of continued, though limited, attacks in this arena.
Russia is capable of launching small scale attacks in various sectors of company and small sized elements, but any large scale offensive action in the face of the heavy demands from defending against the Ukrainian offensive are essentially nil.
********
The naval exercises Ocean Shield - 2023 started in the Baltic Sea, more than 30 ships and boats, 20 other vessels, 30 aircraft, about 6 thousand military personnel taking part, - the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation
NOTE -With the inclusion of new NATO members, the Baltic has essentially become a NATO ‘lake’.
Putin and Erdogan had a phone call, discussed grain deal, agreed on Putin’s visit to Turkey
Russian Personnel Issues –-
Putin ratified a law on July 31 increasing the fine for failure to arrive at a military registration office after being summoned for mobilized personnel or conscripts
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Thunderstorms early in the week with temperatures in eastern Ukraine forecast to reach the 100s towards the end.
Longer term forecasts for mid to late October include cold and rains across Europe. Highs only in the 50s and 60s Fahrenheit.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Much of the openly reported action has been what I would term ‘strategic’ - ballistic / Cruise / drone missile attacks on rear areas. Russia overnight stuck the Port of Izmail again, destroying grain silos It’s Ukraine’s largest port on the Danube delta & is located just across the border from Romania (NATO member). Drones also unsuccessful targeted Kyiv overnight.
Ukraine stuck targets across occupied Crimea, most likely storage facilities. One Russian training facility on a spit in southern Crimea was hit, killing dozens of soldiers.
In a followup to the reported seaborne drone attack on the Russian patrol ships “Sergey Kotov” and “Vasily Bykov” ( There were stories a container ship - Sparta-IV, reportedly carrying weapons coming from Syria being escorted by the ships). Russian sailors after the attack reportedly asked for evacuation. In intercepted conversations between the crews of Ka-29 helicopters (involved in the evacuation) and coastal aviation services, coordinates of the vessels are transmitted and the number of casualties were specified. There is being talked about one dead and five wounded. There is no confirmation that any of the ships sank or extent of damage.
Velyka Novosilka Axis-
Ukraine forces pushed Russian forces south of Starornnaiorske. Russian units now backed into Mokri Yaly River pocket. Russian counter-attacks reported as unsuccessful.
Bakhmut Axis -
Russian troops have withdrawn from the positions at Andriivka, south of Bakhmut.
Crimean front ———
Pro-Ukrainian residents of Crimea are “systematically” attacking Russian military bases with Molotov cocktails, forcing Russia to tighten its surveillance over the peninsula, Ukraine’s military intelligence reported on Aug. 1.
Russian Territory –
Russian partisans burned down another railroad relay cabinet in Tver, 90 miles northwest of Moscow, disabling the railroad traffic lights in the area and halting all train traffic
Arson attack attempt reported at military enlistment office in St.Petersburg. Arson attack attempts were also made against military enlistment offices in Nakhodka, Sestroretsk, Stavropol, Maykop, Nizhnekamsk, Kazan and Ishimbai.
OUTLOOK –
Tight reporting by both Ukraine and Russia suggests a tight and tense conflict is ongoing in the major front areas. Russian withdrawals in the Bakhmut area suggest that holes are developing in the Russia defense created by efforts to reinforce defense in the south.
I expect Ukraine to once again start moving southward at a greater pace as Russian defenses continue to get worn down. Russian milblogger reports of poor morale and lack of ammunition are on the rise. Things are dynamic and can change quickly.
Belarus -
Lukashenka, said he was joking when he said that Wagner mercenaries wanted to attack Poland.
“I joked that the Wagner fighters were talking that they would go on a trip to Rzeszow. Why? Because the equipment and weapons went from Rzeszow to where these “Wagner soldiers” fought near Artemovsk (Bakhmut). Thousands of their guys died there. And they will remember this,” he said.
OBSERVATION - Those kind of “jokes” will get your country pulverized by a war with Poland. Poland is itching for a reason to hit Belarus.
Poland –
Poland announces that 2 Belarusian military helicopters intruded Polish airspace today, flying across the Białowieża National Park. They flew across the border at a low altitude to avoid radar and then quickly returned back home. Some reports indicator that they penetrated 3 Km into Poland before turning back.
OBSERVATION - I suspect that this will be the last time Poland lets this happen. Should Belarus get frisky again, any other helicopter or other incursion will become a smoldering heap.
Turkey –
See Russia above RE: phone con with putin.
Africa general –
French forces have begun evacuating French and other European nationals from Niger.
The coup has resulted in a US drone airbase in Niger that was supporting the fight against ISiS elements in Africa has been closed.
ping to the above
That's a big deal - glad you put it first.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Category not quiet by any means, but is ever present through actions in other categories.
Economy –
The Fitch downgrad of the United States’ credit rating has given the regime and Wall Street the fits. Press Secretary Karinne Jean-Pierre said “extremism” from Republican officials, including undermining governance and democracy. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has defended the strength of the US economy, and called the decision by Fitch, one of the three big ratings firms, “puzzling” and “entirely unwarranted”.
CNN is now blaming the US credit downgrade to Jan 6.
Other views include Kevin O’Leary Chairman of O’Leary Ventures
“There is no way to sugarcoat this at all. It’s bad. And I’ll tell you how you measure it’s bad. Basically, when you downgrade the U.S. economy, which is what this downgrading is, you are losing a little faith in the U.S. dollar and the U.S. Treasury bill because the default currency of the world, defined by every commodity priced by U.S. dollars, is the good faith of the U.S. government and the whole world. Trust it. Most sovereign funds keep the majority of their liquidity in U.S. dollars. That got hurt 24 hours ago because now you start to ask yourself, well, where is this going? A downgrade from AAA to AA, does it go to single? Now, if you’re a sovereign wealth fund, you start to put that in your mind. And the bottom line for you and me is the cost of capital goes up. In other words, what it costs for us to borrow money to fund the government and deficit goes up. No sugarcoating that.
OBSERVATION - This downgrade destroys the regime’s narrative of a booming economy.
**
Jeremy Siegel, a finance professor at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School of Business, views the chances of recession this year to be at 30%.
**
Ukrainian deputy prime minister Oleksandr Kubrakov said the Russian drone attacks damaged almost 40,000 tons of grains which had been destined for countries in Africa as well as China and Israel.
Wheat prices spiked by 5% before settling down to a 1.6% increase. This follows a 10% increase since the collapse of the wheat deal with Russia.
OBSERVATION - This will have some impact on the US in that overseas buyers of Ukraine grain will press upon the US market, raising our prices as well. The drought and heat wave in the plains has reduced the wheat crop, creating potential shortages to begin with. If you are storing wheat long term as a preparation item, you better get on the ball and get your supplies now.
CW2 / Domestic violence -
Jon Cooper, a Barack Obama and Joe Biden supporter, posted a picture Monday of a house decked in Trump memorabilia.
“What would you do if this was your next-door neighbor?” Cooper asked in the postThe Missouri Democrat Party responded to the post by calling to “burn” the home.
“The roof, the roof is on [fire emoji] we don’t need no water, let the ‘insert your word’ burn!” the Missouri Democrat Party’s official account wrote in a since-deleted response to Cooper’s post.
Libs of TikTok snagged a screenshot of the Missouri Democrat Party’s post before they deleted it.
OBSERVATION - This wasn’t a general democrat hack making these comments, but the official Missouri Democrat Party! Time to watch very closely if this triggers its followers to go out and actually target homes with Trump flags / signs. Political violence at this stage of the 2024 election cycle could spin quickly out of control and give greater justification to more extreme right wing retaliatory actions.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments – Category modification
NOTE - Modifying the title of this category to bring in other military related stories/topics tha affect our readiness.
Effective 01 July 2024, the Navy will no longer require a rating or professional military knowledge test to advance to E-4. After 30 months as an E-3, the sailors will automatically advance to the NCO ranks.
OBSERVATION - Included in this are racial ‘quotas’. All adds up to a less qualified NCO corps at the Navy level, and is sure to spill over into the other branches under the umbrella of trying to improve retention.
IN RELATED - According to a recent Gallup poll, Americans’ confidence in the U.S. military has been steadily plummeting over the last two decades.
The survey reported only 60% of people have ‘a great deal’ or ‘quite a lot’ of confidence in the U.S. military, the lowest approval rating since 1997.
This is based in part on such action as the poorly executed withdrawal from Afghanistan, and the increase of woke rhetoric in the military.
OBSERVATION - As a veteran, this pains me to see, but it is a very real reality. I haven’t been able to recommend a military career to anyone for at least the last 20 years. I saw much of this starting under Clinton, expanded under 0bama (purge of generals) and climaxing under biden. To submit to the global reset agenda, America must be brought under submission and gutting the military is a key component along with gun confiscation.
Wuhan Plandemic –
Federal officials on Wednesday announced the appointment of Dr. Jeanne Marrazzo as the incoming director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID). This position was previously held by Dr. Anthony Fauci. Marrazzo is a fanatical and outspoken supporter of COVID lockdowns, the WHO, vaccine and mask mandates for adults and children.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Trump is scheduled to appear this afternoon for a hearing at the Washington D.C. E. Barrett Prettyman Federal Courthouse, where he will be processed and arraigned. Security has been increased for the arraignment.
Yesterday, an apparent hoax 911 call about an active shooting at the Capitol triggered a lockdown in three Senate office buildings and a major police emergency response.
U.S. District Judge Tanya S. Chutkan, an Obama appointee and donor - worked at the same law firm as Hunter Biden.
Biden Watch –
Biden remains on vacation. . . . .
Illegal Immigration –
NYC Mayor Eric Adams is begging biden to declare an immigration “emergency”. Doesn’t he listen to the regime’s claim that the border is secure and closed?
China –
China replaced two leaders of an elite unit managing its nuclear arsenal, triggering speculation of a purge. General Li Yuchao who headed the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) Rocket Force unit and his deputy had “disappeared” for months. Former deputy navy chief Wang Houbin and party central committee member Xu Xisheng were named as replacements.
This is the biggest unplanned shake-up in Beijing’s military leadership in almost a decade.
OBSERVATION - Xi is preparing his military for war and wants leaders that will support him and his plans. Perhaps he’s seeing putin’s woes with his many generals as a warning to his own military command structure.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated July 9, 2023 (under review Aug 2, 2023)
Russia is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine, relying on Russian doctrinal defense in depth to blunt the Ukrainian offensive. With Ukraine lacking air superiority, Russia has taken chance in using its aircraft (helicopters and fast movers) to more directly assist its ground forces, though at an increasing loss of airframes.
The month plus of Ukraine offensive action has forced Russia to give up terrain on all fronts - most notably in the Bakhmut area where Russian forces are now being in danger of being encircled.
Russian reserves are increasingly being used to try to stop Ukrainian advances. Just how big and combat capable of a reserve force is debatable. Reports that Russia has amassed about 180,000 troops opposite of Kharkiv may be a ploy to freeze some of the Ukraine forces out of the offensive to the south. However, this number includes cooks, bottle washers and other logistic elements, so the ‘teeth’ numbers are likely much lower.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. Recent attacks indicate the Russia has started to produce its own Shahed drones with Iranian assistance. Russia capable of continued, though limited, attacks in this arena.
Russia is capable of launching small scale attacks in various sectors of company and small sized elements, but any large scale offensive action in the face of the heavy demands from defending against the Ukrainian offensive are essentially nil.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Thunderstorms early in the week with temperatures in eastern Ukraine forecast to reach the 100s towards the end.
Longer term forecasts for mid to late October include cold and rains across Europe. Highs only in the 50s and 60s Fahrenheit.
RUMINT –
Stories coming out that say Ukraine is about to launch a very large drone attack on Moscow. The recent attacks were designed to test for Russia AD weaknesses and prove out the new Ukraine “Beaver” drone capabilities. Mixed in with the rumors are those of newer drones that are designed to be decoys or hold EW systems to enhance the ability of the attack drones to reach their targets. It is being assumed that these drones are being constructed to be EW resistant - meaning their flight is programmed in and not needing to be connected to an operator or system to execute.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russia launched another drone strike against Kyiv - with the Ukrainian air defense shooting down 15 Shahed drones. Russia for its part claims to have shot down 6 drones over Kaluga region(mid way to Moscow).
Though announced months ago, the red tape appears to finally have been cut and Ukraine pilots will begin training on the F-16 sometime this month. That means that pilots for the aircraft could be available by the end of the year.
Bakhmut Axis -
Russian troops have withdrawn from the positions at Andriivka, south of Bakhmut.
Russian Territory –
Explosions were reported at a battery factory in Achkasovo a town southeast of Moscow.
OUTLOOK –
More information on the conditions the Ukraine army is facing in its offensive operation. A key element appears to be the heavy and I mean heavy use of mines by Russia (by some reports mines as dense as 3 - 5 per sq meter). Such a concentration, with the season’s high grasses, have overwhelmed tactical mine removal equipment and makes quick armor thrusts deadly. Thus Ukraine has resorted to a slower, infantry based assault method supported by its growing superiority in counter battery fire as well as direct fire on an increasing stretched and exhausted Russian army. This process is by its very nature slow, but is effective for the Ukrainian method of operation.
Criticism directed toward NATO trainers in that, while combined arms action is good, it is heavily dependent on close air support. This is something Ukraine doesn’t have and won’t for 4-6 months. Part of this demands air superiority, which the F-16 can provide as well as a degree of ground support.
It is assumed that the mine concentration the highest in the approaches to the main prepared defense trenches and that the concentrations will diminish further to the south. That assumption remains to be seen.
Ukraine’s shift to a war of logistical attrition at the moment continues to show benefits and assists the fight on the ground - expect that to continue. Over the past week, Russian units have started to fall back quicker than earlier in the offensive when brought into contact with Ukraine forces.
Things remain dynamic and changes can happen quickly.
Belarus -
Current OSINT world assessment is that there is no indication that Wagner fighters in Belarus have the heavy weaponry necessary to mount a serious offensive against Ukraine or Poland without significant rearmament.
OBSERVATION - IMHO, they don’t need to mount a ‘serious’ offensive in order to significantly influence the war. Smaller scale insurgent operations striking stratigic nodes in Western Ukraine or even Poland would do the trick. And don’t forget, they could fall on the equipment of the Belarus army - who is reluctant to get into a scrape with Poland or Ukraine - to take care of the heavy weapon needs.
Current NATO stance is that any attack by Wagner will be treated as an attack by Russia proper - since Russia as part of the agreement stopping the rebellion - has incorporated Wagner into its more structured regular army command.
Poland –
Poland moving more units to the Belarus border as a result of the Belarus helicopter incursion.
Africa general –
According to Reuters, power supply from Nigeria to Niger, on the Birnin-Kebbi 80mw transmission line, has dropped to zero, indicating Nigeria has cut off power supply to Niger following the coup.
Meanwhile, the United States is preparing to evacuate most of its embassy staff from Niger, according to Politico. The potential evacuation would include spouses, children, and many U.S. diplomats not key to critical embassy functions.
Misc of Note –
Noted India’s rice closure and the panic buying, particularly here in the US. Thought I’d check the local wally world the other day to see what ripples have hit here in the Redoubt Virtually empty shelves where rice is normally placed for sale, and the prices seemed high. Our wally world is notoriously poorly stocked anyway, but this seemed to be worse than normal. Got Millet?
Globalism / Great Reset –
Category not quiet by any means, but is ever present through actions in other categories.
Economy –
The Fitch downgrad of the United States’ credit rating has given the regime and Wall Street the fits. Press Secretary Karinne Jean-Pierre said “extremism” from Republican officials, including undermining governance and democracy. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has defended the strength of the US economy, and called the decision by Fitch, one of the three big ratings firms, “puzzling” and “entirely unwarranted”.
CNN is now blaming the US credit downgrade to Jan 6.
Other views include Kevin O’Leary Chairman of O’Leary Ventures
“There is no way to sugarcoat this at all. It’s bad. And I’ll tell you how you measure it’s bad. Basically, when you downgrade the U.S. economy, which is what this downgrading is, you are losing a little faith in the U.S. dollar and the U.S. Treasury bill because the default currency of the world, defined by every commodity priced by U.S. dollars, is the good faith of the U.S. government and the whole world. Trust it. Most sovereign funds keep the majority of their liquidity in U.S. dollars. That got hurt 24 hours ago because now you start to ask yourself, well, where is this going? A downgrade from AAA to AA, does it go to single? Now, if you’re a sovereign wealth fund, you start to put that in your mind. And the bottom line for you and me is the cost of capital goes up. In other words, what it costs for us to borrow money to fund the government and deficit goes up. No sugarcoating that.
OBSERVATION - This downgrade destroys the regime’s narrative of a booming economy.
**
Jeremy Siegel, a finance professor at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School of Business, views the chances of recession this year to be at 30%.
**
Ukrainian deputy prime minister Oleksandr Kubrakov said the Russian drone attacks damaged almost 40,000 tons of grains which had been destined for countries in Africa as well as China and Israel.
Wheat prices spiked by 5% before settling down to a 1.6% increase. This follows a 10% increase since the collapse of the wheat deal with Russia.
OBSERVATION - This will have some impact on the US in that overseas buyers of Ukraine grain will press upon the US market, raising our prices as well. The drought and heat wave in the plains has reduced the wheat crop, creating potential shortages to begin with. If you are storing wheat long term as a preparation item, you better get on the ball and get your supplies now.
CW2 / Domestic violence -
Jon Cooper, a Barack Obama and Joe Biden supporter, posted a picture Monday of a house decked in Trump memorabilia.
“What would you do if this was your next-door neighbor?” Cooper asked in the postThe Missouri Democrat Party responded to the post by calling to “burn” the home.
“The roof, the roof is on [fire emoji] we don’t need no water, let the ‘insert your word’ burn!” the Missouri Democrat Party’s official account wrote in a since-deleted response to Cooper’s post.
Libs of TikTok snagged a screenshot of the Missouri Democrat Party’s post before they deleted it.
OBSERVATION - This wasn’t a general democrat hack making these comments, but the official Missouri Democrat Party! Time to watch very closely if this triggers its followers to go out and actually target homes with Trump flags / signs. Political violence at this stage of the 2024 election cycle could spin quickly out of control and give greater justification to more extreme right wing retaliatory actions.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments – Category modification
NOTE - Modifying the title of this category to bring in other military related stories/topics tha affect our readiness.
Effective 01 July 2024, the Navy will no longer require a rating or professional military knowledge test to advance to E-4. After 30 months as an E-3, the sailors will automatically advance to the NCO ranks.
OBSERVATION - Included in this are racial ‘quotas’. All adds up to a less qualified NCO corps at the Navy level, and is sure to spill over into the other branches under the umbrella of trying to improve retention.
IN RELATED - According to a recent Gallup poll, Americans’ confidence in the U.S. military has been steadily plummeting over the last two decades.
The survey reported only 60% of people have ‘a great deal’ or ‘quite a lot’ of confidence in the U.S. military, the lowest approval rating since 1997.
This is based in part on such action as the poorly executed withdrawal from Afghanistan, and the increase of woke rhetoric in the military.
OBSERVATION - As a veteran, this pains me to see, but it is a very real reality. I haven’t been able to recommend a military career to anyone for at least the last 20 years. I saw much of this starting under Clinton, expanded under 0bama (purge of generals) and climaxing under biden. To submit to the global reset agenda, America must be brought under submission and gutting the military is a key component along with gun confiscation.
Wuhan Plandemic –
Federal officials on Wednesday announced the appointment of Dr. Jeanne Marrazzo as the incoming director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID). This position was previously held by Dr. Anthony Fauci. Marrazzo is a fanatical and outspoken supporter of COVID lockdowns, the WHO, vaccine and mask mandates for adults and children.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Trump is scheduled to appear this afternoon for a hearing at the Washington D.C. E. Barrett Prettyman Federal Courthouse, where he will be processed and arraigned. Security has been increased for the arraignment.
Yesterday, an apparent hoax 911 call about an active shooting at the Capitol triggered a lockdown in three Senate office buildings and a major police emergency response.
U.S. District Judge Tanya S. Chutkan, an Obama appointee and donor - worked at the same law firm as Hunter Biden.
Biden Watch –
Biden remains on vacation. . . . .
Illegal Immigration –
NYC Mayor Eric Adams is begging biden to declare an immigration “emergency”. Doesn’t he listen to the regime’s claim that the border is secure and closed?
China –
China replaced two leaders of an elite unit managing its nuclear arsenal, triggering speculation of a purge. General Li Yuchao who headed the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) Rocket Force unit and his deputy had “disappeared” for months. Former deputy navy chief Wang Houbin and party central committee member Xu Xisheng were named as replacements.
This is the biggest unplanned shake-up in Beijing’s military leadership in almost a decade.
OBSERVATION - Xi is preparing his military for war and wants leaders that will support him and his plans. Perhaps he’s seeing putin’s woes with his many generals as a warning to his own military command structure.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated July 9, 2023 (under review Aug 2, 2023)
Russia is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine, relying on Russian doctrinal defense in depth to blunt the Ukrainian offensive. With Ukraine lacking air superiority, Russia has taken chance in using its aircraft (helicopters and fast movers) to more directly assist its ground forces, though at an increasing loss of airframes.
The month plus of Ukraine offensive action has forced Russia to give up terrain on all fronts - most notably in the Bakhmut area where Russian forces are now being in danger of being encircled.
Russian reserves are increasingly being used to try to stop Ukrainian advances. Just how big and combat capable of a reserve force is debatable. Reports that Russia has amassed about 180,000 troops opposite of Kharkiv may be a ploy to freeze some of the Ukraine forces out of the offensive to the south. However, this number includes cooks, bottle washers and other logistic elements, so the ‘teeth’ numbers are likely much lower.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. Recent attacks indicate the Russia has started to produce its own Shahed drones with Iranian assistance. Russia capable of continued, though limited, attacks in this arena.
Russia is capable of launching small scale attacks in various sectors of company and small sized elements, but any large scale offensive action in the face of the heavy demands from defending against the Ukrainian offensive are essentially nil.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Thunderstorms early in the week with temperatures in eastern Ukraine forecast to reach the 100s towards the end.
Longer term forecasts for mid to late October include cold and rains across Europe. Highs only in the 50s and 60s Fahrenheit.
RUMINT –
Stories coming out that say Ukraine is about to launch a very large drone attack on Moscow. The recent attacks were designed to test for Russia AD weaknesses and prove out the new Ukraine “Beaver” drone capabilities. Mixed in with the rumors are those of newer drones that are designed to be decoys or hold EW systems to enhance the ability of the attack drones to reach their targets. It is being assumed that these drones are being constructed to be EW resistant - meaning their flight is programmed in and not needing to be connected to an operator or system to execute.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russia launched another drone strike against Kyiv - with the Ukrainian air defense shooting down 15 Shahed drones. Russia for its part claims to have shot down 6 drones over Kaluga region(mid way to Moscow).
Though announced months ago, the red tape appears to finally have been cut and Ukraine pilots will begin training on the F-16 sometime this month. That means that pilots for the aircraft could be available by the end of the year.
Bakhmut Axis -
Russian troops have withdrawn from the positions at Andriivka, south of Bakhmut.
Russian Territory –
Explosions were reported at a battery factory in Achkasovo a town southeast of Moscow.
OUTLOOK –
More information on the conditions the Ukraine army is facing in its offensive operation. A key element appears to be the heavy and I mean heavy use of mines by Russia (by some reports mines as dense as 3 - 5 per sq meter). Such a concentration, with the season’s high grasses, have overwhelmed tactical mine removal equipment and makes quick armor thrusts deadly. Thus Ukraine has resorted to a slower, infantry based assault method supported by its growing superiority in counter battery fire as well as direct fire on an increasing stretched and exhausted Russian army. This process is by its very nature slow, but is effective for the Ukrainian method of operation.
Criticism directed toward NATO trainers in that, while combined arms action is good, it is heavily dependent on close air support. This is something Ukraine doesn’t have and won’t for 4-6 months. Part of this demands air superiority, which the F-16 can provide as well as a degree of ground support.
It is assumed that the mine concentration the highest in the approaches to the main prepared defense trenches and that the concentrations will diminish further to the south. That assumption remains to be seen.
Ukraine’s shift to a war of logistical attrition at the moment continues to show benefits and assists the fight on the ground - expect that to continue. Over the past week, Russian units have started to fall back quicker than earlier in the offensive when brought into contact with Ukraine forces.
Things remain dynamic and changes can happen quickly.
Belarus -
Current OSINT world assessment is that there is no indication that Wagner fighters in Belarus have the heavy weaponry necessary to mount a serious offensive against Ukraine or Poland without significant rearmament.
OBSERVATION - IMHO, they don’t need to mount a ‘serious’ offensive in order to significantly influence the war. Smaller scale insurgent operations striking stratigic nodes in Western Ukraine or even Poland would do the trick. And don’t forget, they could fall on the equipment of the Belarus army - who is reluctant to get into a scrape with Poland or Ukraine - to take care of the heavy weapon needs.
Current NATO stance is that any attack by Wagner will be treated as an attack by Russia proper - since Russia as part of the agreement stopping the rebellion - has incorporated Wagner into its more structured regular army command.
Poland –
Poland moving more units to the Belarus border as a result of the Belarus helicopter incursion.
Africa general –
According to Reuters, power supply from Nigeria to Niger, on the Birnin-Kebbi 80mw transmission line, has dropped to zero, indicating Nigeria has cut off power supply to Niger following the coup.
Meanwhile, the United States is preparing to evacuate most of its embassy staff from Niger, according to Politico. The potential evacuation would include spouses, children, and many U.S. diplomats not key to critical embassy functions.
Misc of Note –
Noted India’s rice closure and the panic buying, particularly here in the US. Thought I’d check the local wally world the other day to see what ripples have hit here in the Redoubt Virtually empty shelves where rice is normally placed for sale, and the prices seemed high. Our wally world is notoriously poorly stocked anyway, but this seemed to be worse than normal. Got Millet?
OMG the folks at CNN are soooooooo stupid... or vile.
Wuhan Plandemic –
Pfizer just completed their purchase of Arena Pharmaceuticals for $6.7 billion, gaining dominant control of cardiovascular “treatments” for the horrific health trauma caused by the Wuhan coronavirus (COVID-19) vascular-clogging clot shots they themselves manufacture.
OBSERVATION - Follow the money, honey.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Trump was arrested yesterday and officially charged on four counts related to the J6 protests. He pled not guilty.
The RNC is unquestionably quiet about the latest round of political persecution. The never-trumpet RINOS as well, though one shouldn’t be surprised at that.
**
Text messages provided to the FBI show that a Chinese energy conglomerate that struck a controversial deal in 2017 with Hunter Biden began its pursuit of a relationship with the future first family back in late 2015 when Joe Biden was still vice president, hoping to seize on the name of one of America’s most famous political dynasties to provide cover for its ambitious plan to buy up energy assets inside the United States.
OBSERVATION - Nothing concerning the biden crime family surprises me anymore.
**
The Biden White House inquired in meetings with Facebook executives asking whether Facebook could tweak its algorithm to showcase stories from The New York Times and Wall Street Journal over content posted by “polarizing” conservative journalists and commentators in early 2021, according to meeting notes the social media firm turned over to Congress that are alarming some constitutional lawyers. The alleged focus of the meetings was to assist the administration while it struggled to combat COVID vaccine hesitancy
OBSERVATION - No First Amendment for you. . . .
Biden Watch –
Biden remains on vacation. . . . .
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated July 9, 2023 (under review Aug 2, 2023)
Russia is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine, relying on Russian doctrinal defense in depth to blunt the Ukrainian offensive. With Ukraine lacking air superiority, Russia has taken chance in using its aircraft (helicopters and fast movers) to more directly assist its ground forces, though at an increasing loss of airframes.
The month plus of Ukraine offensive action has forced Russia to give up terrain on all fronts - most notably in the Bakhmut area where Russian forces are now being in danger of being encircled.
Russian reserves are increasingly being used to try to stop Ukrainian advances. Just how big and combat capable of a reserve force is debatable. Reports that Russia has amassed about 180,000 troops opposite of Kharkiv may be a ploy to freeze some of the Ukraine forces out of the offensive to the south. However, this number includes cooks, bottle washers and other logistic elements, so the ‘teeth’ numbers are likely much lower.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. Recent attacks indicate the Russia has started to produce its own Shahed drones with Iranian assistance. Russia capable of continued, though limited, attacks in this arena.
Russia is capable of launching small scale attacks in various sectors of company and small sized elements, but any large scale offensive action in the face of the heavy demands from defending against the Ukrainian offensive are essentially nil.
********
See Europe / NATO General for discussion below on a possible Russian drone that hit Romanian territory.
See also Russian landing ship severely damaged by a Ukraine sea drone.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Thunderstorms early in the week with temperatures in eastern Ukraine forecast to reach the 100s towards the end.
Longer term forecasts for mid to late October include cold and rains across Europe. Highs only in the 50s and 60s Fahrenheit.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian USVs attacked the Russian port of Novorossiysk this morning. Russia’s largest port that it uses exports grain etc in the Black Sea. The USVs struck a Ropucha-class landing ship “Olenegorskiy Gornyak” , seriously damaging it and causing it to list heavily to the port side. Videos show it being towed back to Novorossiysk.
Russia continues to lose ground around Bakhmut, with Ukraine gaining tactically important territory south of the city.
In the south, Ukraine continues to work its way through the massive mine fields, but has established itself in Russian trenches constructed for the first line of defense.
Russian Territory –
In the Moscow region, an oxygen-battery warehouse has exploded - a place where batteries for drones were made.
Fire is burning in Yakhroma near Moscow: a warehouse with rubber and plastic is burning on an area of 2.5 thousand square meters.
NOTE - Big fires in large, wartime related facilities in Russia have been on the increase. Little word out as to the causes, but relationship to the war is more than coincidental and may reflect internal dissidents or deep buried sabotage teams.
OUTLOOK –
Meat grinder conditions along the front, but interesting developments in the long range war being expanded. Ukrainian USVs strike further south than before and got a major amphi warship. On the surface, this may not seem very big, but if the Kersch Bridge is taken out in totality, Russia will be reduced to ferrying men and material into Crimea. The loss of one of Russia’s large amphibious ships will severely degrade that capability. The USV strike also severs to warn that Russia has fewer and fewer placed it can hide its warships and will have to take measures to secure even more military harbors in the northern Black Sea region.
Seems like the operational pause in southern Ukraine by Ukraine may be ending soon so that they don’t lose operational momentum and advantage. Changes can happen very quickly in this dynamic environment.
Poland –
Poland sent attack helicopters to the Belarusian border, placing them on full alert of a border intrusion by Belarusian helicopters.
Polish PM Morawiecki also met at the Suwalki Gap today with Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda in a show of force against Wagner.
OBSERVATION - Inept Belarusian leadership is going to do something to give Poland the clearance to act, causing the war in Ukraine to expand almost exponentially .
Europe / NATO General –
During the last attack of the Russian Federation on the port of Izmail, one of the drones fell on the territory of Romania, - Romanian media. The Romanian govt has so far denied the incident.
Iran –
Senior U.S. Defense Officials have stated that preparations are underway to soon begin the Deployment of Marines and Sailors onto Commercial Shipping Vessels as they a pass through the Gulf of Oman and the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz in order to Protect them from hijackings or attacks which are often perpetrated by the Iranian Military; an Official has gone so far as to state that Marines from Camp Lejeune in North Carolina have already been transferred to Bahrain to begin training on Maritime Security.
OBSERVATION - This would be a significant escalation in the effort to stop Iranian seizures of vessels in the region. Iran may well see this as a challenge and force the issue in an effort to seize one of these vessels and parade captured marines for PR purposes. The US has firepower in the region already, but has been reluctant to use it.
Syria -
Iran and Syria foreign ministers held a press conference, calling on foreign forces to leave Syria’s territory. Al Mayadeen: “Syrian Foreign Minister Faisal Al-Mekdad stressed that the US army should withdraw from Syria before it is forced out”
Iran is reportedly training militants to use attack drones in eastern Syria, likely part of a campaign to expel US forces.
OBSERVATION - I’ve noted the mentality of strength and the perception of weakness as a guiding principle for radical islam. Iran sees the US as weak and is looking to exploit that weakness for success over the ‘great satan’. This is not an entirely false assumption by Iran, the US foreign policy is in a shambles, and military readiness has slipped to a very low level.
Africa general – WAR WATCH
World Bank suspended payments to Niger. The World Bank said they were “alarmed” by attempts to overthrow the democratically elected government in Niger.
“In response, the World Bank has suspended disbursements on all operations until further notice, with the exception of partnerships with the private sector, which will continue with caution,” the World Bank said in a statement.
Nigeria, Senegal, Côte d’Ivoire, and Benin have all agreed to partake in a possible military intervention by ECOWAS.
EU ready to support military intervention in Niger, according to the official representative of the EU foreign service, Nabila Massrali.
On the other side of the ledger, Mali and Burkina Faso have both stated that they will support Niger if there is an intervention.
Some ECOWAS members are yet to commit to involvement in a potential intervention:
- Guinea Bissau
- Cabo Verde
- Sierra Leone
- Liberia
- Ghana
- Togo
The Head of the Miliary Junta in Niger, Brigadier General Abdourahamane Tchiani has announced that Niger will Immediately suspend all military cooperation agreements with France including the agreement which allows French Military Forces to remain in Niger, with Tchiani further stating that Niger will swiftly respond to any sort of aggression by ECOWAS or the West African Community
ECOWAS delegation led by General Abdulsalami Abubakar (Rtd), Sultan of Sokoto, Alhaji Muhammad Sa’ad Abubakar and President of ECOWAS Commission, H.E. Omar Alieu Touray, arrived in Niamey, Niger Republic, for talks with coup leaders
OBSERVATION - Western Africa is set to explode as the deadline for the coup to restore the elected leaders is quickly approaching. All sides are preparing for a war.
The Nigerien junta appear to be unlikely to cave to international pressure to undo its coup. This may force the junta to seek alternative auxiliary forces like the Wagner Group and may prompt a regional ECOWAS military intervention.
Current intel shows that Niger and its allies are out gunned by the declared ECOWAS forces. ECOWAS also has the backing of the EU and particularly France who are more likely to provide more aid than Russia can for Niger at this stage..
The RNC wants him in prison more than the Democrats do. They want to go back to the way things used to be run. Where Republicans were the whipping boys of the media and Democrat Party. And all they had to do was kiss Democrat ass and count their money. The Republican Party is totally satisfied to play second fiddle to the Democrat Party.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Republican presidential candidate and businessman Vivek Ramaswamy has settled his lawsuit against the “globalist” World Economic Forum (WEF) for “creating a false perception” he was affiliated with the organization, and has promised to donate the settlement money to a conservative nonprofit.
Ramaswamy slapped the organization with a lawsuit in a Cincinnati, Ohio court in April after it failed to remove his name from its 2021 list of Young Global Leaders even though he declined the nomination to the list and requested multiple times for them to remove his name.The ultimate question is, would Ramaswamy be so adamant about rejecting the much-coveted distinction (among a certain class of politician) if the GOP base, particularly the Trump base that Ramswamy is courting, were not so vehemently opposed to the machinations of the World Economic Forum?
In other words, is Ramaswamy a genuine populist or just playing one for the votes? We must never take off the table the possibility of a Trojan Horse, no matter how shiny the packaging. This isn’t to say, of course, that the candidate is disingenuous — only that due diligence warrants some degree of skepticism until he proves his bona fides in policy prescriptions and, ultimately, execution of those policy prescriptions if he were to assume office.
OBSERVATION - How close was he to the WEF in the first place that garnered him the attention to be listed as as a Young Global Leader in the FIRST place? I think serious concerns are well warranted on his background and motivations.
CW2 / Domestic violence -
Social media personality Kai Cenat has been arrested after chaos unfolded at his event in Union Square. Centat had announced a ‘give away’ and called his followers to come to Union Square Park NYC. Hundreds (thousands) of teens and adults covered on the site and broke out into general violence and vandalism. NYPD was overwhelmed as rioters threw bottles, debris and fireworks at them, injuring several officers. 65 were arrested.
OBSERVATION - Ferals residing in NYC (as well as other blue urban areas across the nation) seemed more than willing to go on a destructive rampage over something like a PS5. This must give the BLM/Antifa core leadership hope for a repeat of 2020 if a rallying event can occur or be staged. These would be the foot soldier / cannon fodder for any similar uprising.
POLITICAL FRONT –
According to internal Department of Energy (DOE) calendars obtained by Americans for Public Trust, Granholm consulted China National Energy Administration Chairman Zhang Jianhua, a senior member of the Chinese Communist Party, Nov. 19, 2021, and two days later on Nov. 21, 2021.
On Nov. 23, 2021, the White House announced a release of 50 million barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR).
OBSERVATION - The majority of the oil released from the SPR made its way to China, directly aiding an adversary. Makes it appear that China is directing a lot of US policy.
**
The New York Times noted Katherine Feinstein, 66, Feinstein’s only child has “power of attorney over her mother’s legal affairs, filed two lawsuits against Senator Feinstein’s co-trustees.”
OBSERVATION - If she is incapable of handling her own affairs, she is doubly incapable of serving as a senator.
Biden Watch –
Biden remains on vacation. . . . .
Biden has officially passed 365 days of vacation since taking office 2.5 years ago, 39% of his time as the head of the regime.
Cyber attacks/warfare –
A cyber attack is caused major disruptions to hospitals and healthcare across several states. Emergency rooms were closed, ambulances are being diverted, and many primary care services remain closed So far, the cyber attacks seem to be focused in hospitals in California, Texas, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island. No one has claimed credit for the attacks yet.
Illegal Immigration –
Current illegal immigration news is buried by the Trump indictments as well as other distractions. Numbers of captures continue at near record highs. Feds taking Texas to court over the river barrier. Sanctuary cities are crying out no mas, no mas, as thousands are being bussed into them from impacted southern states like Florida and Texas.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated July 9, 2023 (under review Aug 2, 2023)
Russia is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine, relying on Russian doctrinal defense in depth to blunt the Ukrainian offensive. With Ukraine lacking air superiority, Russia has taken chance in using its aircraft (helicopters and fast movers) to more directly assist its ground forces, though at an increasing loss of airframes.
The month plus of Ukraine offensive action has forced Russia to give up terrain on all fronts - most notably in the Bakhmut area where Russian forces are now being in danger of being encircled.
Russian reserves are increasingly being used to try to stop Ukrainian advances. Just how big and combat capable of a reserve force is debatable. Reports that Russia has amassed about 180,000 troops opposite of Kharkiv may be a ploy to freeze some of the Ukraine forces out of the offensive to the south. However, this number includes cooks, bottle washers and other logistic elements, so the ‘teeth’ numbers are likely much lower.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. Recent attacks indicate the Russia has started to produce its own Shahed drones with Iranian assistance. Russia capable of continued, though limited, attacks in this arena.
Russia is capable of launching small scale attacks in various sectors of company and small sized elements, but any large scale offensive action in the face of the heavy demands from defending against the Ukrainian offensive are essentially nil.
********
Kerch Bridge update –
Still residual reports that the Kerch Bridge was attacked again by sea-borne drones. Russia being tight lipped about the whole incident. Traffic was closed for a period of time during the night.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Thunderstorms early in the week with temperatures in eastern Ukraine forecast to reach the 100s towards the end.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
A great deal of excitement and some disappointment overnight as Ukraine’s drone attack boats struck Russian tanker vessel “SIG”, seriously damaging it, flooding the engine room. The attack caused widespread speculation that Kerch Bridge was targeted again because the SIG was at anchor relatively near the bridge, 30 Km to the south. Сhief of Security Service of Ukraine has since warned all Russian vessels to leave the territorial waters of Ukraine, otherwise they will be attacked as legitimate targets.
Tokmak Axis -
Deputy minister of defense of Ukraine: Ukrainian forces have breached the 1st Russian line of defense of in the south. This is in an area east of Russian occupied Robotyne.
Russian Territory –
Deputy Chief of Staff of the Naval Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in 2004-2020, Andrey Ryzhenko, said that the Olenegorsky Gornyak landing ship received too much damage, and therefore cannot be restored.
Partisan Resistance ——
In occupied Mariupol, Ukrainian partisans infiltrated the catering and poisoned the food with cyanide and pesticides for a party for about 20 Russian officers. 2 died immediately and 15 were hospitalized.
OUTLOOK –
Ukraine is successfully pushing its war in the Black Sea against Russian naval assets. Now into its 3d generation drone attack ships (more stealth, longer range, more explosives) it has taken out two ships in a matter of a few days (as well as possibly a third ship) as well as hit the Kerch Bridge a month ago. Some analysts/commentators have noted that while Russia has sought to create a Black Sea blockade of Ukraine, Ukraine has turned the tables and made it open season on Russian vessels in the region. To this extent, Ukraine is winning, in spite of not having a viable naval presence.
Ukraine’s deep game will continue to keep Russia jumping and off balance. Expect more deep Ukraine drone raids into Russia. As the war comes home to Moscovites, there will be greater pressure on putin over his war, destabilizing his govt and military power structure further.
Ukraine has penetrated the first line of defense and is close to being nosed up to the next line. This second line is reportedly even more heavily reinforced with concrete bunkers and secured on high ground. This would give some protection from HIMARS and cluster munitions, but not US GLSDB (ground-launched small diameter bomb) produced by Boeing and Saab (Sweden), and the JDAM-ER (joint direct attack munition-extended range). Further, Ukraine’s sustained assault on Russia logistics will make it hard for russia to sustain high volumes of fire for any period of time. Concrete hardened points don’t maneuver very well either.
What to expect? Well, I see Russia taking further steps to protect its ships in the Black Sea - further reducing combat readiness and capability. Over the next week Ukraine will start its methodological assault towards the second defensive line with the likely goal to find a weak spot to exploit then roll the flanks up. Enlargement of the current breech is a given and Robotnye will soon be liberated.
Consider this, one piece of statistics that I caught recently (but didn’t save) indicates that Russia since the start of the war has essentially lost all of its initial forces - meaning personnel, armor, tanks, artillery , etc - it committed to the fight. This was all their best trained and equipped forces. And the attrition of Russian forces have continued - so little surprise they are sending T-54 tanks to the front and 50-60 year old armor, etc. Approximately 1/3 of Russia’s military has been destroyed in this war, and they are losing ground.
Belarus -
See Europe / NATO General below on how close Belarus is playing with fire. Almost FAFO territory.
Poland –
Coordinating with Baltic nations in response to Wagner group / Belarus threats.
Europe / NATO General –
Lithuania has declared more than a thousand citizens of Russia and Belarus living in the country to be threats to national security. They will get deported back home.
**
Latvian troops moving close to the border with Belarus. Poland, Lithuania and Latvia are all on high alert due to the arrival of the Wagner Group in Belarus.
Iran –
Iran is working to seize control of an extensive network of Syrian military industry facilities, collectively known by their French acronym of CERS, or the Scientific Studies and Research Center in English, according to a report released on Wednesday by the Alma Research and Education Center.
The report went on to assess that Hezbollah likely has mortar shells and missiles designed for chemical warheads, which can be armed with the help of CERS.
https://www.jns.org/middle-east/hezbollah/23/8/3/307307/
OBSERVATION - This would provide in country sources for chemical arms that can be transferred to Hezbollah in the event of war with Israel. I have little doubt that Iran down’t already have similar facilities in Iran proper.
Syria -
ISIS have now confirmed the death of its leader Abu Hussein al-Husseini al-Quraishi, naming Abu Hafs al-Hashimi al-Quraishi as his replacement. ISIS continues to be a significant threat in many regions.
Africa general – WAR WATCH
Winds of war continue to ramp up.
The President of Burkina Faso raises the alert level of his forces to a “state of war”.
France has not recognized the abolition of military agreements with Niger and refuses to withdraw its troops
The new government of Niger has decided to denounce all agreements with Paris in the military sphere. The French authorities, in response, refused to recognize him, explaining that the decision was made by an illegal government.
The Foreign Ministry said the deposed government of President Mohamed Bazum was “ the only one recognized by France and the entire international community .”
The military council in Niger expels the ambassadors of America, France, Togo and Nigeria and declares its readiness to contain aggression. Niger has also reportedly signed a contract with Wagner for military support.
OBSERVATION - The region staggers closer to open war. Not certain just what event will trigger shooting, my guess the most likely would be the attempt by Niger to forcibly remove French soldiers stationed in the country. Looking to see if France is moving military jets and the like to friendly countries on a readiness response.
Where is this global ‘boiling’? Here in the Redoubt we had to break out the light jackets because hi temps dropped into the lower 60’s. Lower 70’s forecast into the middle of August. Current weather has a fall-like feel to it. Well, just got a couple cords of wood stacked up and getting a couple more this next Friday. Probably need one more cord just to top off my storage.
CW2 / Domestic violence -
More than two dozen House Democrats put forward legislation Friday that would slap “assault weapons” and high-capacity magazines with a 1,000% excise tax, a change that would raise the price of a $500 weapon to $5,000 in a bid to reduce access to guns across the country.
Rep. Don Beyer, D-Va., and 24 other House Democrats introduced the legislation Friday. It’s the second time Democrats have put forward the idea.
Beyer and 37 Democrats proposed the same idea last year when Democrats controlled the House, but it never moved.
OBSERVATION - Tyranny cannot succeed in the face of an armed population. One of the reasons given for the 2d amendment by our founders is to protect against a tyrannical govt. With the house under republican control, this bill will die again. But is it a zombie that will keep coming back - especially if the house comes back under the democrats. A presidential election cycle causes 2d Amendment issues to be a third rail, so control of govt after the elections is critical.
Terrorism -
And now we discover that the potential terrorist bio lab in Kalifornia was subsidized by none other than Governor Gavin Newsom. The totally unlicensed lab received Tax Credit of $360,000 from Newsom’s ‘GO-Biz’
OBSERVATION - what is it with these liberals and funding bio-labs?
Wuhan Plandemic –
New evidence suggests vaccinated individuals can transmit antibodies generated through mRNA COVID-19 vaccination to unvaccinated individuals through aerosols, according to a peer-reviewed study (pdf) published in ImmunoHorizons.
OBSERVATION - This only confirms what many have been saying - that the so called vaccinated were key spreaders of the disease.
POLITICAL FRONT –
The January 6th Capitol Police CHIEF told Tucker Carlson that he wasn’t allowed to do his job that day, that both Pelosi + General Milley hid intelligence from him, that they denied his requests for National Guard and he says the January 6th crowd was filled with Federal Agents. Tucker reveals there were at least 18 undercover FBI agents plus 20 DHS Agents at Jan 6th protests.
OBSERVATION - I’ve stated this many times. If you are a member of a patriot group of some sort, you MUST consider that your ranks have been infiltrated by govt agents and/or snitches and agent provocateurs. This also turns the democrat narrative on its head given that it has been well documented that Trump offered to deploy the Nat’l Guard and pelosi et al rejected it.
**
Special counsel Jack Smith’s team admitted in a Monday court filing that his staff did not turn over all evidence to former President Donald Trump’s legal team, despite previously claiming that they had. Smith has brought a total of 40 counts against Trump, accusing him of unlawfully retaining classified documents after leaving office and lying to the government about handing over all documents. Now, it appears that Smith is the one withholding security footage.
OBSERVATION - This is not the first time in the past year that DoJ prosecutors have failed (deliberately) to forward exculpatory evidence to the courts and defendants. Nor will it be the last as long as these political witch hunts continue and there are no consequences for prosecutorial misconduct like this.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Another Harris word salad - “And so for years we have worked to expand investment in community banks because, you see, community banks specialize in providing loans and financial assistance to small business owners, in particular those in overlooked and underserved communities, including rural communities. And as the name suggests, community banks are in the community,” the vice president proclaimed.
Illegal Immigration –
The buoy barrier system will remain in place in the Rio Grande River until at least September 1. That news came when U.S. District Judge David Alan Ezra gave Governor Greg Abbott’s attorneys until August 9 to respond to DOJ’s call to remove the buoys, with a hearing scheduled on August 22. If the judge rules in favor of DOJ, Abbott will have 10 days to remove the buoy barrier.
OBSERVATION - In matters of border ‘security’ and processing of migrants (illegal or otherwise) the courts seem to side with the govt over states. If this trend continues, then expect the buoy’s to be eventually removed.
**
New York City’s Central Park and Prospect Park are being considered by city officials as part of the sanctuary city’s plan to house migrants.
According to Bloomberg, over 95,000 migrants have arrived in New York City over the last 15 months. The recent surge in migration resulted in Anne Williams-Isom, deputy mayor for Health and Human Services declaring “everything is on the table,” during a Wednesday press conference when she was asked about the potential for migrants to be housed in the city’s parks.
OBSERVATION - Make yourself a sanctuary city - find out what it really is all about (and winter is on its way).
China –
According to the Armed Forces of the Philippines, China Coast Guard vessel used water cannon to attack a Philippine supply boat near Second Thomas Shoal in the Spratly Island on 5 August.
OBSERVATION - These intimidation tactics will increase until the bully is stood up to.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated August 6, 2023
Russia is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine, relying on Russian doctrinal defense in depth to blunt the Ukrainian offensive. However, Russian forces are increasingly stretched and undermanned, with increasingly insufficient artillery support.
Russian attempt at launching a counter offensive to take pressure off its southern and eastern fronts has sputtered out. Initally, reports that Russia has amassed about 180,000 troops opposite of Kharkiv morphed into Russian assaults that initially gained some ground but was quickly reversed, due largely to poor coordination between units.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. Recent attacks indicate the Russia has started to produce its own Shahed drones with Iranian assistance. Russia capable of continued, though limited, attacks in this arena.
Russia is capable of launching small scale attacks in various sectors of company and small sized elements, but any large scale offensive action in the face of the heavy demands from defending against the Ukrainian offensive are essentially nil.
Logistics –
Well documented Oryx, Russia is now visually confirmed to have lost more than 2200 tanks since it launched its invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022. Many consider Oryx’s numbers to be conservative and that the actual numbers may be higher. No wonder Russia is pulling T-54’s out of mothball.
When Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, it had around 3,330 operational tanks – 2,840 with its army, 330 with its naval infantry, and 160 with its air force – according to the Military Balance 2021 database, as reported by the Kyiv Independent. The database says it also had more than 10,000 in storage.
Russia has stepped up its internal production of Iranian based Shahed drones and is increasingly reliant on them to supplement its other cruise and ballistic missile stocks.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temps ranging from the 80’s to high 90’s with thunderstorms scattered over the 14 day forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Yesterday’s big news was three waves of rockets/cruise missiles/drones fired at Ukraine in one of the biggest rounds yet. Ukrainian Air Defenses shot down 30 of the 43 Kinzhal, X-101/Kh-555, and Kalibr Missiles that Russia fired at Ukraine throughout the night
0 of 3 Kinzhal Missiles
17 of 20 Kalibr Missiles
13 of 20 X-101/Kh-555 Missiles
27 of 27 Shahed Kamikaze Drones
Central to western Ukraine appears to have been the target region with the Starokostiantyniv Air Base again in Khmelnytskyi, and several Air Defence sites also in the west. Starokostiantyniv is understood to host Ukraine’s Storm Shadow cruise missile and attack jets. Reportedly, this is the third time Russia has attempted to attack this base, so it is highly likely none of those assets were hit as they have long been deployed to other bases.
The Black Sea is now increasingly a zone of conflict after the issuing of Ukrainian Coastal Warning 118, six Russian sea ports along the Russian Black Sea coast have been declared areas of “war risk” and by doing so declaring those areas to combat areas . The warning comes effectively immediately and is valid until further notice.
This applies to the following cities:
- Taman
- Anapa
- Novorossiysk
- Gelendzhik
- Tuapse
- Sochi
This comes after Russia declared the same for Ukrainian sea ports and the end of the so-called grain deal.
Meanwhile, on the ground, Ukraine continues to push southward in area east of Robotdyn and past the ‘first’ line of defenses. Videos showing Ukraine seems to be getting the hang of US style “time on target” artillery support to provide cover for infantry assaults.
OUTLOOK –
The long range war will continue. In spite of the fact that Russia can launch far more missiles/drones than Ukraine, Ukraine has been winning the recent round. Two and possibly a third Russian ships are out of the operation, Moscow now introduced to the war in a more fuller manner, Kerch Bridge damaged again and now Russian ports on the Black Sea are open season.
The war on Russian naval activity must have really caused military planners even new headaches. Ever since the loss of Snake Island, the Moskva and major amphib vessels early in the war, they have tried to minimize exposure to new attacks and by doing so have greatly diminished their capabilities to just being missile boats. There seems to be a reluctance to enforce their blockade of Ukraine because of the increasing unknown of Ukraine drones (sea and air) along with anti ship missiles. Now they will have to divert resources to protect Russian flagged ‘commercial’ vessels from attacks as well.
Russian defenses against Ukraine sea-borne drones is going to become more complicated as Ukraine starts fielding a new class of submersible attack drones that will be even harder to detect, carrying shape charges to hit hard below the water line.
Things on the ground continue to have the capability to change rapidly.
Iraq -
Ashab Al-Kahaf is calling on Iran-backed factions to prepare for an upcoming protest around the US embassy compound in Baghdad.
OBSERVATION - IMHO, this is linked to the overall campaign by Iran/Syria do push US/allied forces out of eastern Syria. Iraq is a key support element for those bases.
Africa general – WAR WATCH
Winds of war continue to ramp up.
Pressure on Niger’s coup leaders mounted Sunday with the approach of the one-week deadline set by the West African regional bloc ECOWAS for the military to relinquish control or face possible armed intervention. ECOWAS instituted almost immediate economic sanctions and may now be waiting to see whether these sanctions really start to bite and put pressure on – before either going ahead or deciding finally exactly what to do about the military action.
Wagner reportedly has stated:
“A decision was made to deploy combat troops of the Wagner PMC in & around the capital of Niger, in light of current security situation & foreign threats.”
OBSERVATION - Pressure builds towards military actions at some levels.
What's with liberals funding bio-labs? What's with liberals assisting illegals over the border? What's with illegals helping cartels achieve power? What's with liberals weakening our legal system? What's will liberals weakening our military?
Quiet, too quiet, almost like the calm before the storm. There are a lot of things boiling below the surface out there that can erupt at any moment.
Globalism / Great Reset –
More reporting of a UN resolution legalizing pedophilia making the rounds again, and how it essentially would outlaw religious beliefs that reject that resolution as well as not complying with the overall globalist lgbt (and what ever other alphabet is added) agendas.
Economy –
Mixed signals continue - however, it seems that the inflation rate may be turning higher when the next evaluation takes place.
CW2 / Domestic violence -
Mob looting of high end stores in Kalifornian stores continue to make news. Meanwhile, two Sikh store keepers of a small Stockton KA convince store are being investigated for assaulting a thug that jumped behind the counter and started pilfering cigarettes into a garbage bag - while threatening the clerks that he had a gun.
Meanwhile, NYC continues to clean up after the weekend riots.
My strong recommendation is if you live in or near one of these blue democrat hell-holes that you do your best to get the heck out of dodge as soon as possible. At the very, very least have a bug out plan. If you are one of those who voted the criminal enabling democrat scum to take power, don’t bother to move, you deserve what you voted for.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
U.S. Northern Command has stated that a Naval Flotilla of Ships from the Russian and Chinese Navies was Detected off the Coast of the Aleutian Islands in Southwestern Alaska last week causing at least 4 Arleigh Burke-Class Guided-Missile Destroyers and a number of Surveillance Aircraft from the U.S. Navy and Air Force to be Deployed in order to Shadow and Track the Flotilla which is stated by Officials to have stayed in International Waters during the Patrol.
OBSERVATION - This new item has been out there for a little while, but still notable. Govt has not given any word on the size of this flotilla, but judging from the response, had to be pretty large in modern terms.
Wuhan Plandemic –
In summary, more research continues to come out on how shoddy and shady the rollout of these wuhan mRNA jabs was and the cover up on clearly hazardous results.
POLITICAL FRONT –
More political fighting regarding Trump. His DC judge making it clear that she has bias and Trumps defense team is trying to get a change in venue.
Congress is quiet because they are all back campaigning in their states during August recess.
Japan –
FWIW, just went past the 78th anniversary of the Hiroshima nuke.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated August 6, 2023
Russia is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine, relying on Russian doctrinal defense in depth to blunt the Ukrainian offensive. However, Russian forces are increasingly stretched and undermanned, with increasingly insufficient artillery support.
Russian attempt at launching a counter offensive to take pressure off its southern and eastern fronts has sputtered out. Initially, reports that Russia has amassed about 180,000 troops opposite of Kharkiv morphed into Russian assaults that initially gained some ground but was quickly reversed, due largely to poor coordination between units.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. Recent attacks indicate the Russia has started to produce its own Shahed drones with Iranian assistance. Russia capable of continued, though limited, attacks in this arena.
Russia is capable of launching small scale attacks in various sectors of company and small sized elements, but any large scale offensive action in the face of the heavy demands from defending against the Ukrainian offensive are essentially nil.
Logistics –
Two key Crimea bridges linking the peninsula to the mainland were taken out overnight.
Russian Personnel Issues –-
General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine estimates Russian losses at 250,240.
NOTE - this is more than twice the initial invasion force.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temps ranging from the 80’s to high 90’s with thunderstorms scattered over the 14 day forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukraine struck two key bridges connecting Crimea to Kherson oblast. One bridge, the Chonhar Bridge, was hit for the second time. The other bridge was over the Tonkyi Strait near Henichesk, which connects the town of Henichesk with the Arabat Spit. The gas pipeline next to the bridge was damaged. There are only some many access points northward out of Crimea, and these two are critical.
Activity on the ground has been relatively limited to what seems to be attacks designed to improve defensive positions - primarily by Ukraine - to consolidate recent gains.
In the Kharkiv region, the Russian counter offensive has completely collapsed with Ukraine regaining all territory initially lost and then some.
OUTLOOK –
Many observers are viewing Ukraine’s current offensive tactics as an effort to create an asymmetrical battlefield situation. Put simply, it seeks to defang the Russian forces by denying them the logistics they need, plus a high priority on destroying their artillery advantage. It further exploits Russian clumsiness in bringing forces forward lumped into large, targetable groups and maintains pressure on those forces on the front - wearing them out because Russia has no reserve to cycle them out.
The situation continues to maintain a dynamic and the situation can change very rapidly.
Syria -
Airstrikes were reported on Damascus overnight with several soldiers reportedly killed. Suspected Israeli airstrike on Iran/Hezbollah site(s) but no details yet.
Africa general – WAR WATCH
Winds of war continue to ramp up.
Niger’s coup leaders have closed the country’s airspace until further notice, citing the threat of military intervention from their neighbors.
The West African group of countries, ECOWAS, had earlier warned it could use force if President Mohamed Bazoum was not reinstated by 23:00 GMT on Sunday.
OBSERVATION - Things are wound up, but will fighting actually break out. I think if the Niger regime attempts to forcibly remove French and US forces, the bullets will fly. Right now there is a lot of words.
Good advice...
Globalism / Great Reset –
Arup Group, which is as an official WEF partner, released a report demanding that the consumption of clothing, cars, electronics, and food must be eradicated to virtually zero in order to “save the planet.”
OBSERVATION - Note that the global elite will keep all their toys. But the consumption of food must be eradicated - folks, that’s genocide on a massive, off the charts, level.
Economy –
Tyson is shutting down four meat processing plants, saying that they are losing too much money. They claim high meat prices combined with high energy and other costs. This covers not only chickens, but beef as well. Beef is currently selling at record high prices and herds are at multi decade lows due to the recent impacts from drought. Chicken prices are still exceptionally high, though most of the effects from the bird flu have dissipated.
OBSERVATION - Loss of production capability is not a good thing in the event of another shockwave like wuhan or similar disaster. It will only drive the price of meat even higher.
**
With some banks under financial stress because of higher interest rates, Congress and the Federal Reserve want to raise bank capital reserve requirements. This generally means holding more government bonds, many of which dropped precipitously in value last year as interest rates spiked higher. However, by definition, higher capital reserves mean less money available to make loans. Access to credit for business and family borrowers gets squeezed.
OBSERVATION - Some note that these new requirements would not have prevented the recent failures of lenders such as SVB. But they will make borrowing costs more expensive and loans harder to get. This will hurt small business’ ability to access loans as well as hurt banks that are in good financial condition.
**
(Reuters) - Moody’s cut credit ratings of several small to mid-sized U.S. banks on Monday and said it may downgrade some of the nation’s biggest lenders, warning that the sector’s credit strength will likely be tested by funding risks and weaker profitability.
Moody’s cut the ratings of 10 banks by one notch and placed six banking giants, including Bank of New York Mellon, US Bancorp, State Street and Truist Financial on review for potential downgrades.
“Many banks’ second-quarter results showed growing profitability pressures that will reduce their ability to generate internal capital,” Moody’s said in a note.
OBSERVATION - Contrary to the narrative, the banking sector still has some considerable problems that could cause more failures should the right conditions hit.
CW2 / Domestic violence -
FBI Special Agent Charles McGonigal is expected to plead guilty next week to conspiring with a sanctioned Russian oligarch Oleg Deripaska. Same dude that helped efforts to prosecute Trump for Russian collusion / conspiracy.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
More than 3,000 U.S. sailors and Marines reached the Red Sea on Sunday aboard the assault ship USS Bataan in response to Iran’s “harassment and seizures of merchant vessels,”.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics – (Section change)
With wuhan fading, except for the lawsuits and scientific studies showing gross negligence and fraud, the drum beat of ‘new’ viruses is on the rise and worthy of being collected in this section.
**
Rumors that British scientists are working on a high-security project at Porton Down, the top-secret government laboratory, to develop prototype vaccines to tackle ‘Disease X’ when it strikes.
OBSERVATION
Rumors and warnings of a new pandemic have been rampant over the past year. This British project is worrisome in that it could be a precursor like the infamous Project 201 exercise that predated the wuhan outbreak by a few months.
**
On Friday, July 21, the Biden administration quietly announced the creation of a new permanent office within the White House called the Office of Pandemic Preparedness and Response Policy, or OPPR.
Joe Biden has named a military man, retired Air Force Maj. General Paul Friedrichs, to head up the new office.
OBSERVATION - This points to one thing. The next plandemic will be ruled by an even more tyrannical medical martial law than ever.
POLITICAL FRONT –
The release of the J6 videos - where are they?
**
federal judge dealt several blows Monday to Special Counsel Jack Smith’s prosecution of former President Donald Trump for his alleged mishandling of classified documents.
U.S. Judge Aileen Cannon, a Trump appointee, denied the Justice Department’s request to keep fillings sealed in the case and she removed two from the record. Cannon also questioned “the legal propriety” of prosecutors working for Special Counsel Jack Smith to use “an out-of-district grand jury proceeding to continue to investigate.”
OBSERVATION - Smith is using a very unorthodox scheme of a DC grand jury to investigate an alleged crime committed in Florida. Judge Cannon apparently isn’t happy with this and is holding Smith to some extremely high standards - even broaching the possibility of prosecutorial misconduct.
**
Waiting for Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis’ to invoke Georgia’s RICO (Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations) Act, and have Trump arraigned by the end of the week at the earliest, next week in all probability .
Cyber attacks/warfare –
White House will host a summit on Monday to explore ways to improve school cybersecurity across the country in the face of rising ransomware assaults. There has been a rise in cyberattacks that have targeted schools. During the 2022–2023 academic year, at least eight K–12 school districts across the country were targeted by “significant cyberattacks,” according to the White House. Four of these attacks resulted in schools being forced to either cancel classes or shut down entirely.
China –
According to “Spiegel Online” China’s trade exports continue to drop. After already having weak months before, the exports in July shrank by another 14.5% compared to one year ago. The war in Ukraine plays a decisive role in this slump, due to high inflation, high interest rates and high energy prices.
OBSERVATION - China’s economic woes have been front and center for a long time now. It was expected to grow substantially this summer, but that outlook is now been pushed further into the future.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated August 6, 2023
Russia is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine, relying on Russian doctrinal defense in depth to blunt the Ukrainian offensive. However, Russian forces are increasingly stretched and undermanned, with increasingly insufficient artillery support.
Russian attempt at launching a counter offensive to take pressure off its southern and eastern fronts has sputtered out. Initially, reports that Russia has amassed about 180,000 troops opposite of Kharkiv morphed into Russian assaults that initially gained some ground but was quickly reversed, due largely to poor coordination between units.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. Recent attacks indicate the Russia has started to produce its own Shahed drones with Iranian assistance. Russia capable of continued, though limited, attacks in this arena.
Russia is capable of launching small scale attacks in various sectors of company and small sized elements, but any large scale offensive action in the face of the heavy demands from defending against the Ukrainian offensive are essentially nil.
********
Russian forces have worked to close gaps in their defensive lines and expand existing fortifications along highways in occupied Ukraine. However, new fortifications are worthless unless you have the people to man them and the artillery to support them. Russia is running very short of both.
RUMINT-
There are reports of “panic” in the Black Sea fleet following recent Ukraine attacks. Russia initially dispersed their ship groups as much as possible in areas that they once considered safe for themselves and their fleet. But now security for them is being on the move to avoid Ukraine stealth drones.
Kerch Bridge update –
Kerch bridge remains closed to traffic. With the destruction of bridges in northeastern Crimea, traffic (particularly Russian vacationers) must now travel further west to the Armyansk crossing into Kherson. This includes military traffic too.
Logistics –
Losses of key bridges in Crimea has force Russian logistical lines to/from Crimea to a single crossing point further to the west, drastically increasing the time for response as well as exposing it to Ukraine interdictions.
Russian Personnel Issues –-
Economic Impact –
Russia’s GDP is expected to grow about 1.5% over the next year. Some commentators shouting that the numbers show sanctions are not working. OTOH, 1.5% is extremely anemic and displays a great deal of weakness.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temps ranging from the 80’s to high 90’s with thunderstorms scattered over the 14 day forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Deeply buried under the tons of political related news and OPSEC, Ukraine has made it known of an addition river crossing of the Dniper River near Kozachi Laheri, south of the Dnipro River and east of Kherson city. The operation most likely started 2 days ago, but OPSEC prevented reporting of it for good reason.
Multiple pro-Russian sources express their “concern” of the situation, since a bridgehead has been established. Some Russian sources even claim of a strike as deep as 800m and the first line of Russian defense broken.
This is especially important because there’s a major road not far from Kozachi Laheri. If it’s cut, the Russian reinforcements will need more time to bring forces to the Dnipro frontline. This also means Ukraine can now advance towards Oleshky from three directions, which could allow them to completely dislodge Russian forces in the area.
This operation is relatively small in numbers, but is in a sector Russia has largely neglected due to priorities to support the defense in areas to the east. Russia also a large lake serving as a very significant barrier to Ukraine operations - that is until Russia blew up the dam and now the lakebed has had a good chunk of hot summer to dry out and allow crossings.
Russia continues to launch small, poorly coordinated attacks in eastern Ukraine that are easily repulsed by Ukrainian forces.
Tokmak Axis -
Ukraine defense forces have tactical success at Mala Tokmachka - Robotyne direction.
Kherson Axis -
Expansion of the Ukraine bridgeheads on the east bank of the Dniper River.
Crimean front ———
Explosions were reported in Northern Crimea, near Dzhankoi. Likely ammo storage sites targeted by Ukraine long range weapons.
OUTLOOK –
The strategic attacks between Ukraine and Russia have slowed for a minute, action on the ground is leaking out. Ukraine continues to outmaneuver Russian forces around Robotyne, Bakhmut and elsewhere. The establishment of another bridgehead across the Dniper will become increasingly worrisome to Russian planners. They at one time had the 7th VDV defending the line - one of the better trained and functioning forces left in Ukraine - and shown to be so by its successful withdrawal last fall from the west side of the Dniper River.
Elements of that unit have been piecemeal to the fight further to the east in an attempt to stop the Ukraine offensive to the south. This has left far worse trained Russian national guard and mobilization forces to hold the line - and that line is now crumbling. This seems to be an economy of force operation by Ukraine to push Russian forces back far enough so that the crossings can be expanded to permit a larger force to cross. This would greatly endanger Russia’s hold on Crimea as this is a very short path to the Armyansk crossing into Crimea. Thus Russia would be forced to address a third, potentially even more serious push on Crimea.
Other ground operations are still in a dynamic mode.
Belarus -
The Belarusian Ministry of Defense announced yesterday that they they have begun Large-Scale Military Exercises near the “Suwalki Gap” in the Border Regions with Poland and Lithuania and that the Exercises will be based on lessons that have been learned so far during the “Special Military Operation” in Ukraine; during these Exercises there will reportedly be Significant Movements of Mechanized Armor and Tanks of the Belarusian/Russian Armed Forces in these Regions as well as the Flights of Combat and Surveillance Drones.
OBSERVATION - Belarus would be extremely foolish to try to create a Russian corridor to Kaliningrad. However, the wild card is the presence of Wagner forces and their mystical and unknown mission in Belarus.
Turkey –
Some are thinking Russia may be behind the recent explosion at a grain processing site in Turkey. The cite the proximity of the explosion to the possible visit of Putin’s representative to Turkey, where the grain corridor is planned to be discussed.
Most likely the explosion was the result of grain dust - a highly explosive scenario in itself.
Economy –
Credit card debt just surpassed $1 trillion for the first time in American history.
OBSERVATION - Growth in the population of the US is one factor, but the key factor is that credit card debt for individuals/families has skyrocketed due to wuhan and inflation.
CW2 / Domestic violence -
The jury has reached a verdict in the trial of investigative journalist Andy Ngo v. Rose City Antifa and its alleged affiliated members, in which they found both defendants John Colin Hacker and Elizabeth Renee Richter not liable in the civil case brought against them.
Ngo filed an action in Portland, Oregon, claiming assault and other injuries over alleged acts of violence carried out by members of Antifa, which began in 2019. Defendants John Colin Hacker and Elizabeth Renee Richter have been accused by Senior Editor of Post Millennial Andy Ngo of assault, battery, and intentional infliction of emotional distress.
The jury found them not liable for all of these claims.
OBSERVATION - In her closing argument, the Antifa attorney told the jurors that she was “Antifa” and that she implicitly threatened to dox them. Antifa elements throughout the trial threatened Ngo and others over the coverage. This just goes to show how Portland has turned into a jungle and has no semblance of law and order any more.
BTW, the rampant crime is not lost to the many who left Multnomah County, in which Portland is located, over the past couple years. They were mostly high-income earners, driving down average earnings and resulting in a record $1 billion of lost revenue, analysis conducted by OregonLive.com found. Sadly, they are likely the uber liberals who supported the govts radical leftward drift that created the mess, now only to spread their cancer elsewhere.
**
Nordstrom’s has completely pulled out of San Francisco due to rampant crime. Other stores are locking everything down they can in order to stay in business. Residents are bemoaning the rise in crime, but those residents are the ones who voted in democrat leadership saying that they were going to ‘reform’ the justice system - a rare political promise kept. Question is how soon will this spread in mass to smaller cities surrounding the bay area.
Oakland is telling citizens to buy airhorns and bar the windows to protect against the rampant crime there.
In D.C. the council is beginning to plea for help from the National Guard to get crime under control - same bunch who just months ago was beating the drum of defunding the police.
OBSERVATION - A goal of communistic efforts to take over the country is to create crime to such a degree that cities become ungovernable. Then they will try to ride in on their white horse to save the day. Not working well in reality.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics – (Section change)
With wuhan fading, except for the lawsuits and scientific studies showing gross negligence and fraud, the drum beat of ‘new’ viruses is on the rise and worthy of being collected in this section.
**
COVID cases spike 55% in New York, doctors fear ‘frightening’ new variants. Local media goes into fear mongering mode.
POLITICAL FRONT –
The Democrat-controlled January 6th Committee destroyed evidence that might have exonerated the protesters and the president as well as evidence that implicated Speaker Pelosi and the FBI/DOJ in criminal activity. (Fox)
OBSERVATION - It is pretty firmly confirmed that teh J6 failed to turn over its documentation to the House for archive storage but this is even more serious if true. Destruction of evidence is the MO of democrats/leftists when caught with their hand in the cookie jar. Hillary set the standard for such destruction as did Muller’s crew.
**
Vice President Kamala Harris announced on Aug. 8 a change in labor rules that could result in higher pay for workers on federal construction projects.
This development is under the Davis-Bacon Act of 1931 that pertains to “contractors and subcontractors performing on federally funded or assisted contracts in excess of $2,000 for the construction, alteration, or repair (including painting and decorating) of public buildings or public works,” according to the Department of Labor.
OBSERVATION - the regime is once again catering to the unions in an effort to get their support locked down early for the 2024 campaign. Back to the common practice of buying them off.
Biden / Harris Watch –
The bag of cocaine found in the West Wing of The White House last month belonged to someone in the “Biden family orbit — and the president apparently knows who it is.” Leaks indicate that the SS got solid finger prints off the bag so the individual handling it is solidly identified.
Any guesses hmmmmmmm?
Illegal Immigration –
Per law enforcement source, a group of suspected cartel gunmen armed with rifles & body armor were seen on cameras crossing illegally into the Fronton, TX area in the RGV Saturday night. Elite Border Patrol BORTAC agents were called out & searched area, but found nobody. Fronton, TX is a heavy cartel area with significant drug smuggling. Border Patrol sources tell me armed gunmen are frequently encountered there.
OBSERVATION - As noted for sometime - the cartels control the border now and their armed presence will only progress further northward.
**
Massachusetts Governor Maura Healey declared a state of emergency after her administration was unable to get a hold of the migrant influx coming from the southern Healey, a Democrat, announced that a state of emergency exists “due to rapid and unabating increases in the number of families with children and pregnant people — many of them newly arriving migrants and refugees — living within the state but without the means to secure safe shelter in our communities.”
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated August 6, 2023
Russia is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine, relying on Russian doctrinal defense in depth to blunt the Ukrainian offensive. However, Russian forces are increasingly stretched and undermanned, with increasingly insufficient artillery support.
Russian attempt at launching a counter offensive to take pressure off its southern and eastern fronts has sputtered out. Initially, reports that Russia has amassed about 180,000 troops opposite of Kharkiv morphed into Russian assaults that initially gained some ground but was quickly reversed, due largely to poor coordination between units.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. Recent attacks indicate the Russia has started to produce its own Shahed drones with Iranian assistance. Russia capable of continued, though limited, attacks in this arena.
Russia is capable of launching small scale attacks in various sectors of company and small sized elements, but any large scale offensive action in the face of the heavy demands from defending against the Ukrainian offensive are essentially nil.
********
RUMINT-
10% of the VDV forces moved from the Kherson sector to the main offensive sites have gone AWOL.
Russian Personnel Issues –-
Russia plans to mass-conscript inmates for war in Ukraine by emptying prisons in Novosibirsk, Saratov, Lipetsk, Voronezh, Rostov, Tomsk and Nizhny Novgorod regions. These regions make up 12% of Russia’s population (17 million). Crimals with certain records or infection from HIV have been excluded - causing prisoners reportedly to seek getting infected as a way to avoid conscription to these ‘meat’ units.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temps ranging from the 80’s to high 90’s with thunderstorms scattered over the 14 day forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukraine lobbed some drones at Moscow, though it appears they were shot down, the simple fact that Moscow can now be attacked has changed the psychological attitude of Muscovites.
Small, but important tactical gains being made in the several front by Ukraine. See below.
Tokmak Axis -
Ukraine continues to make gains in the region
Velyka Novosilka Axis-
Ukraine continues to make gains in the region.
Bakhmut Axis -
Ukraine forces are pushing across the rail road that has served as the front line for several weeks south of Bakhmut. This push puts the T-05-13 highway at risk of being controlled by Ukraine forces.
Kherson Axis -
Ukrainian military hit command post of Russian army in Nova Kakhovka. Russian milbloggers reporting an entire battalion (Brigade?) command group eliminated. This comes as reports indicate that Ukraine forces have moved past the southern part of Kozachi Laheri and are beginning to envelop Chelburda.
Crimean front ———
Explosions were reported in Northern Crimea as Ukraine hits more ammo dumps.
Russian Territory –
Explosions have been heard near the Moscow as Air Defense Batteries are reported to have shot down at least 2 drones over the region.
A huge explosion was reported in Zagorskiy Optical and Mechanical plant near Moscow. The factory had contracts with the Russian Ministry of Defense. It is part of Shvabe Holding, which is producing sights, thermal imagers, laser rangefinders, and other similar products. And for some reason, ammunition is found throughout the rubble of the plant, very similar to artillery shells of 122 mm and 152 mm caliber.
OUTLOOK –
The Kherson effort has really caused panic among Russian milbloggers. Its pretty clear that Russia left some of its most poorly trained and equipped units to defend this sector, diverting more capable units to other fronts. Ukraine saw this and now is exploiting it. This third prong towards Crimea is putting them into a difficult spot. Ukraine forces exploiting this river crossing have been rested and ready for action - not needing the large reserves set assist for the current offensive.
The Kozachi Laheri is also one of the better bridgehead areas for Ukraine to exploit. So now they have just in Kherson a three pronged attack pushing southeast from the Dniper River. Unchecked, this will have Russian support attempting to stop Ukraine’s offensive southward in jeopardy, forcing them to redirect already over tasked forces to meet this new threat, creating more weakness the Tokmak and Velyka Novosilka drives can exploit.
Remember, things are dynamic and can change quickly.
Belarus -
RUMINT -The Wagner Group is reported to have effectively been kicked out of Belarus, with thousands of its remaining fighters being bussed back into Russia. The Belarusian leader, Alexander Lukashenko, is reported to have refused to finance Wagner’s stay in his country.
Some smaller elements are still reportedly set to say, mostly those who are training Belarus army units.
Africa general – WAR WATCH
The ECOWAS Chief of Defense Staff has requested a Force of at least 25,000 Troops for a Military Intervention in Niger with most being provided by Nigeria and Small Contingents also being provided by Senegal, Benin, and Ivory Coast, with other ECOWAS Members possibly Assisting.
OBSERVATION - Forces are still being prepared on both sides. It will take them sometime to get their ducks in a row before major fighting breaks out.
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