Down years are frequently followed by up years.
Posted on 12/08/2022 7:31:11 AM PST by SpeedyInTexas
This list only includes destroyed vehicles and equipment of which photo or videographic evidence is available. Therefore, the amount of equipment destroyed is significantly higher than recorded here. Small arms, ATGMs, MANPADS, loitering munitions, drones used as unmanned bait, civilian vehicles, trailers and derelict equipment are not included in this list. All possible effort has gone into avoiding duplicate entries and discerning the status of equipment between captured or abandoned. Many of the entries listed as 'abandoned' will likely end up captured or destroyed. Similarly, some of the captured equipment might be destroyed if it can't be recovered. When the origin of a piece of equipment can't be established, it is not included in the list. The Soviet flag is used when the equipment in question was produced prior to 1991. This list is constantly updated as additional footage becomes available.
(Excerpt) Read more at oryxspioenkop.com ...
Let me tell you why inflation is here to stay...pension bailouts. If you really think core inflation is going to be 2% next year, you have the rosiest glasses I have ever seen.
We are about to enter a phase where the government sends more money to directly to people than ever before without any production behind it whatsoever.
I see it staying around 8% - 10%, maybe higher.
Bookmark this thread and lets review in a year.
Remember, my prediction is for Core PCE (the Feds preferred inflation gauge).
US and NATO spy planes very active again today watching Belarus, Southern Ukraine and Crimea and Russia’s Black Sea coast. No more Sochi vacations for Putin anymore. LOL!
“The Five-Year Engineering Feat Germany Pulled Off in Months”
“WILHELMSHAVEN, Germany—In March, the German government asked energy companies to weigh a seemingly impossible engineering task. Could a new liquefied natural gas import terminal, which normally takes at least five years to build, be erected in this port town by year’s end?
At the headquarters of the company asked to build the pipeline portion, technical director Thomas Hüwener posed that question to his team. “If no, then it’s a no,” he told them.“ If yes, then we have to commit, with all the possible consequences for our company.”
After three days deliberations, the company concluded that if everything went perfectly the project could be done by Christmas. Since then, it has had to contend with potentially toxic soil and environmental regulations protecting frogs and bats. When workers encountered high groundwater, they had to drain trenches, then backfill them.
...
Within days of taking on the job of building a 19-mile pipeline between the new Wilhelmshaven terminal and the natural-gas grid, Mr. Kissing’s employer, pipeline builder Open Grid Europe GmbH, formed a team with specialists in everything from route planning and nature conservation to archaeology and law.
...
To save time, much of the 3,000 cubic meters of concrete needed for the project were brought in the form of huge, semifinished blocks, which were assembled like Lego pieces.
...
The German bureaucracy made adjustments, too. The parliament passed an LNG Acceleration Act, speeding up procedures for reviewing, approving and awarding contracts for LNG projects.
...
Mr. Lüdicke is hoping for good weather as his team races toward the finish line. Bad weather could force delays, and heavy wind routinely halts work. There is still work to be done and tests to be carried out before the floating terminal, the 965-foot Hoegh Esperanza, can dock in Wilhelmshaven in the coming days and the gas can start flowing.
Utility Uniper SE, which the German state recently agreed to nationalize and which will operate the terminal, said that if all goes according to plan, the first tanker carrying LNG will arrive at the start of next year.”
Some day we might get to hear Russian milbloggers spinning the “brilliant trap the Russian army laid to lure Ukraine into surrounding and besieging Moscow”.
Ukraine: military situation update with maps, Dec 7, 2022
(’Orc’ is associated with the various hoards of 13th century Mongol invaders, as well as LOTR evil villains)
War in Ukraine
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCP2QApi8G2TKc8NZmeDWSUg/videos
Artillery (key to success in this war), Fuller explanation of Orc military structure, Other Bonus articles - see previous postings in “Attack on Europe” (FR title search).
(Numbered printed material below - Some of the items below may be out of date, and not updated yet)
••Denotes Transcribed Dialogue. The entirety of the analysis is from a Ukrainian guy named War in Ukraine’s daily video - I only transcribe it. Extras are just that - from other sites, or my comments marked (Edit: .... )
-—> Current to date and past MAPS: <——
https://militaryland.net/
———————————————————————————————————————
Extras:
-—> Polish SA-3 Surface-To-Air Missiles Appear To Be In Ukrainian Forces’ Hands <——
The enhanced Soviet-era surface-to-air missile system would add to Ukraine’s ever-expanding and increasingly diverse air defense arsenal.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/polish-upgraded-sa-3-surface-to-air-missiles-appear-to-be-in-ukrainian-forces-hands
—
-—> Spurred By Ukraine, Massive Munitions Restocking Plan In Proposed Pentagon Budget <——
The bill would replenish supplies of HIMARS, Stingers, Javelins and other items sent to Ukraine, and stock-up for future wars.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/spurred-by-ukraine-massive-munitions-restocking-plan-in-proposed-pentagon-budget
———————————————————————————————————————
Summary:
Unconfirmed reports that Russian troops captured Yakovlivka, north of Soledar.
Also unconfirmed reports that Russian troops established bridgehead on the western side of Donbas fresh water channel near Kurdyumivka.
Key areas:
- North Lugansk: no changes.
- North Donbass:
Potential capture of Yakovlivka, and establishment of Russian bridgehead on the western side of Donbas fresh water channel.
- Central Donbas (Donetsk West): no changes.
- Zaporizhya: no changes.
———————————————————————————————————————
••Energy, it affects everyone, even most people don’t realize it, but they are extremely directly affected by the situation with energy.
Russian exports so there are some reports and I would say rumors that Russian seaborne crude oil exports went down by two times in the last 48 hours; its probably related to the sanctions, despite Russia saying, ‘we’re switching to to Asia to China, India, Pakistan, Turkey’, apparently, its not going smoothly - things will definitely emerge because this is a huge drop and economic damage is extreme, if this is true.
Russian Custom Service reported that their revenues or collection of custom duties went down by 48% in November compared to November 2021. This is more related to the drop in Russian imports, we all know that import or purchases of foreign goods in Russia went down tremendously. The main revenue source is VAT charged on imported goods - this drop is more explainable and logical and reasonable situation in many ways.
••Russian Energy Situation:
Russian pipeline called Siberian Power or Power of Siberia reached its final destination which is Shanghai in China. China and Russia are quickly trying to increase capacity; this pipeline started construction well before the war, but it was a timely decision for Russia, allowing it to switch the supply of natural gas more to China.
There are two main problems with supplying natural gas to China: first, the distance is really big from Siberia, where its being produced, to where its going in China, which is Shanghai area & coastal areas. Distance is really big, which creates extra cost & reduces profit.
Second, China pays the lowest amount they can, this is going to be a low margin business for Russia, and unlike export to Europe which is extremely profitable, extremely high margin business. Nonetheless, it still allows Russia to sell natural gas somewhere, better than nothing, and since Europe is closed, it’s the best alternative for Russia.
••Germany:
BAS which is a large chemical conglomerate or producer of a lot of basic chemicals that are being used as a feedstock to produce more specialized products, mostly plastics. They reduced production in Germany of acetylene - a base feedstock for the plastic production. This means this will continue keeping inflation high, because downstream there will be shortages of some plastics and products; things gonna go up significantly, and plastic is one of the main components in the production of cars, but everything uses tons of plastic these days. The situation with inflation is not getting better anytime soon.
••France:
They have started practicing controlled blackouts and this time has nothing to do with war or Russia, this is the result of internal policies in France, where they were jumping from one extreme to another extreme. France is known for its huge number of nuclear reactors, at least 50% of electricity is produced by nuclear, depending on how many of them are in maintenance, up to 70% of electricity produced in France.
That’s one of the reasons why they were fighting Wagner mercenaries in Mali and Sahara Africa, because there are deposits of uranium used as a source of energy for all their nuclear power stations.
As a result of pushing to a switch to renewable energy, its becoming clear the switch is not going to happen, or its going to happen at the cost of destroying society and society simply will not exist, which means its not going to happen, one way or another; as a result of that green energy push, nobody was investing in the maintenance of nuclear reactors, a lot of them were idle, but being idle, they are not safe, and that’s the reason there are shortages of electricity in France.
That is a result of all of this misguided worldwide policies with respect to renewable energy and destruction of conventional energy, not to mention, if used properly, nuclear power is probably the cleanest source of energy on Earth.
••China:
There is clearer economic data points from China that it is imploding from within. Chinese exports are down in November 8.7% on annualized basis. China is still the manufacturing or factory of the world, and all this reflects a difficult situation in the world; there are a lot of other factors, such as a lot of global companies are trying to move production out of China, they understand where things are going, they’re trying to be proactive, but regardless, this will create more internal discontent & problems in Chinese society, and may eventually force the hand of Xi Jinping, forcing him into doing a military action, potentially against Taiwan.
This situation is more or less mirrored by Taiwan where exports are going the same way for November year over year fell by 13.1%; the largest contributors to the decrease is China with 20.9%, Europe with 19% and US with 11.3%.
This is logical as many corporations are trying to pull out of Taiwan, which exports electronics & semiconductors, used around the world and its probably more reflective of their general global difficult economic situation on which China is leading the way.
That implosion of the Chinese economy is because their business model is export oriented & is broken because the global consumer is broke, and there is de-globalization happening with the world being disconnected into several potentially separate islands, and then Chinese consumer who was leveraged up or in put into too much debt & cannot sustain its consumption now, and it never was sustainable in the first place.
Europe is also getting hurt because all of these failed energy policies were taken to the extreme in Europe; they are not as extreme in the US, they’re still pretty bad, but the damage in Europe is incomparable relative to the US. The global organizations that encourage globalization in the world are IMF & World Trade Organization, World Bank - they’re all coming to visit China starting December 8th and on December 9. The people who are trying to save the global world are coming to China to understand how to move forward, what strategy to use going forward, and what to do about that.
Xi Jinping has arrived to Saudi Arabia, the point of his visit is to sway all of the oil producers in Persian Gulf, which means not only Saudi Arabia, all of those countries are going to be there. Its not a meeting with just Saudi Arabia leaders, I don’t know the list, but pretty much everybody, everyone from the Persian Gulf is going to be there, and the point of the visit is to convince leaders of the Persian Gulf that their new Master should be China, not the US, looking at the videos of how these leaders are meeting with Xi Jinping, its very clear that they seriously considering this idea.
There are numerous signs of how they behave that Xi Jinping may have quite a bit of success, and the reason is that the West alienated Persian Gulf, and they don’t see West as as the future is for the Persian Gulf, or in terms of mutually beneficial relationship, so they switching their vision to China; China & India that that part of the world which they view as China as long-term consumer of natural gas and crude oil from the Persian Gulf.
China is effectively cementing its position there by offering them some agreement or deal that will ensure a supply of crude oil in case of military action; the only problem with that the oil & gas will be carried by seaborne traffic, which could be easily intercepted by the UK Navy or US Navy. That still does not guarantee anything, but at least China is probably building loyal loyalties there, as a loyal support in that part of the world, so they are not going to be actively supporting the West, in case of some potential conflict with the West.
••Military Strategic Topics:
••155mm Shells:
There was an interesting statistic about 155mm shells which is the main caliber for the artillery in the war in Ukraine right now. The statistics: here’s some of the numbers, at least to give some idea, hopefully its not totally incorrect: Ukrainian side was using about 12,000 shells, plus minus between 10,000 and 15,000 shells of 155 mm per day during the most intense fighting in the summer, and Russia was using about like 35-40,000 shells per day during the most intense shelling.
There’s a lot of anecdotal data: when you ask Ukrainian soldiers, they say Russia shoots 10 to their 1. Its not actually 10:1 its probably if you divide 36 by 12, its gonna be 3:1, its definitely not 10:1 as anecdotal stories say; its more like 3:1, maybe it is 4:1 give a little bit of opportunity for the mistakes. It’s definitely not even close to 10:1 which is bad, you’re definitely at a disadvantaged, but if you’re extremely skilled, its possible to deal with that disadvantage. Ukrainian side really lacking in terms of quality and, without regaining that quality component, Ukrainian Army will not be able to win this war.
About 155mm shells, just have a big picture of what’s going on with them in general. US Secretary of Defense is set to purchase 164,000 155mm shells in 2023, this is definitely not even close to be enough to cover to cover intense use during this war. There’s definitely shortages developing in Europe; its already known, but I suspect that in US eventually, the shortages will develop, and that’s why this move because its a pretty large number, and that’s a result of what’s happening with the US stockpile.
US production is now about 14,000; the plan is to increase it to 20,000 per month by spring and then to 40,000 sometime in 2024 this is per month. Even if we take Ukraine during the intense time and 5,000 or 3,000-5,000 per day during lower intensity times, its not covering the need, even for this even 40,000 per month shell production.
Its not even covering like a third of a month, there will be huge shortage of 155mm shells, an acute shortage, and probably something similar is happening in Russia, because we hear rumors that Russia going to North Korea, Iran, & probably to China, and everywhere to buy more shells. That’s one of the weakest links in this whole war.
Why it is important: because Putin said this war is going to be lengthy process, its gonna last for a long time, and he’s trying to say this is turning into war of attrition, which is was very clear from the very beginning; there is no new revelation, its pretty obvious what he said, but for many people, especially in the West, there’s a hope, ‘its gonna go away very soon, because its so painful for us, and we just want to go it away.’
Its not going away anytime soon: its going to be long brutal process, and however, for the Ukrainian side, the problem is the way Ukraine is right now, its not set up to win a war of attrition, because there is no quality component, and that’s why I also want to say, if based on all of this, there will be severe and acute shortage of 155mm and 152mm shells. I’m don’t mean that they’re going to be used in the same cannons, what I mean is that both shells used for the same purpose: artillery support and counter battery fire.
••Russian Conscripts:
Another military information out of Russia is Putin said that 150,000 conscripts are already on the front line out of the 300,000. About months and a half ago, it was 87,000; the number goes up, for probably past week, there’s higher and higher chance that Russia will do some offensive on the front line - where remains to be seen.
This was picked up by one head of the Military Administration responsible for Luhansk’, its more civilian than military in Ukraine, he mentioned today that Ukrainian reconnaissance forces are starting to see huge build up of Russian troops around Swatova, and I mentioned before there were 200 T-90 tanks were spotted about five days ago.
I’m not saying its happening tomorrow or even a week, but there is very high probability that this offensive is gonna be launched sometime in January, and its gonna be something that’s going to be very hard for Ukrainian side to disrupt, or to defend against, because Ukrainian troops are being bled right now heavily by this fighting in North Donbas.
It becomes maybe even a strategy, but this could be very interesting strategy from the Russian side to first bleed-wide Ukrainian units with all of this Wagner mercenaries attacks, just create huge attrition, especially among the more experienced soldiers among Ukrainian units, and then attack later with this newly trained prepared troops sometime in January. This could be a Russian strategy for this upcoming December & in the January time frame, but I want to highlight the chances and probably this whole Russian offensive or counter-offensive is becoming more and more realized on the ground.
••Energy Situation:
Things are bad, but the power grid is still barely functioning, definitely not going to survive definitely, as they say never say never, but its very unlikely to survive another round of Russian rocket attacks, especially if its going to be a big one like those on November 23rd or on October 10th; if its one of those, its probably going to be put to death, but Russia clearly has a shortage of the missiles: they ones they manufacture now, they shoot now - there is very little inventory, and I’m talking about the more precise ones - I’m not talking about all the Soviet stuff that’s just junk.
••State Border:
It is more or less the same exchange of fire, but its like in the middle of the range.
••North Luhansk’:
There is a potential for Russian attack here. There was a Ukrainian small attack - just probing, futile attacks that don’t lead anywhere. There were no major Russian attacks, but if we look at the situation, its the concentration in the Swatova area - what most likely happens out of all of this, its probably going to be one option is going north to Kupchansk’, but much more promising is going back east to Izyum, because that really offers many more opportunities for the Russian side, they want to roll back what they lost in September, if possible.
The Russian accumulation is large, so it remains to be seen if Ukrainian units will be able to withstand that hit. These units are not bled white, so they are in much better shape than in North Donbas area.
••North Donbas:
Wagner mercenaries continue their attacks, especially in the Northern sector - there are reports that Wagner mercenaries have managed to capture this village Yakovlivka - that is not confirmed. Its a very concerning development because it is creating more of a flanking situation for Soledar, where Russian side did not have much success - it is good point out that was a very good defensive position for Ukrainian side.
If Soledar is outflanked this can potentially lead to the collapse of the Ukrainian frontline, and then that puts into question the Ukrainian salient in the north , but nevertheless this is a very concerning development which again says to us that that the situation here is out of control from Ukrainian perspective.
••Southern North Donbas:
Things here are also not good - there are reports, again unconfirmed, it looks Russian troops managed to get over this channel near Kurdyumivka, which it brings fresh water from Dnipro to the whole Donbas area; it looks like they managed to establish a bridgehead on the western side of the channel, which is really bad development for Ukrainian side, because this channel is somewhat of a decent natural defensive line to contain the Wagner mercenaries, but apparently that failed.
Things are definitely not great news - if Yakovlivka is lost and then there is even worse situation of this salient becoming bigger - the front line around Bakhmut is becoming more and more in danger.
••Central Donbas:
Things here are somewhat quieter: there’s no attacks out of the Pisky salient, and is much more stable for Ukrainian side, they are in much better position. Russian gains are so minimal that it will take another couple of years to make any meaningful problems for Ukrainian side, at least at this pace right - there was some moment where I was Russian gains here in the Pisky area were pretty quick and pretty strong, but apparently, they are contained at this point there.
••Zaporizhya:
Things are quiet here and probably they will be quiet for quite a while, unless the initiative slowly moves back to the Russian side - its not in Russian hands, but its somehow getting out of Ukrainian hands & not quite in Russian hands, its getting in between, but the point is - the most important part is the trend which its moving away from Ukraine’s side to the Russian side.
Whether Russian side really will seize it, that’s another question, but the trend for Ukraine is clearly negative, this ‘expected’ attack out from Zaporizhya bridgehead towards the sea is very unlikely to materialize, because of the density of Russian troops is going up with every passing day - as I said there is 150,000 now, and that’s a minimum - its possibly more.
Putin also has incentive to misinform, again things have clearly started to move in major way not in Ukrainian favor, and I would say the biggest problem is actually Ukraine, within Ukraine, its not a Russian problem, not problem driven by Russia, but it is from within Ukraine; the country does not want to change, it needs to be become much more efficient and effective in order to survive, it just cannot win the war by being another smaller Soviet Army - as I said before this is war of attrition, the efficiency is the only way to survive for Ukraine, and so far Ukrainians are not willing to learn the game of efficiency.
By now those still believing Russian war propaganda just want to be fooled.
Some of them posting are Russians or Communists of course and they never cared about whether what they post is true or not.
A huge number of DSA/Code Pink freepers.
Oh Great Swami, please your predictions for NASDAQ.
Oh no say its untrue!!!
Actually it was a shell. She was on the right spot at the right time.
Heres the “irony” I guess her mother is a poltician and she said in an interview that the deaths in Mariupol was a necessay “cleansing” and “purgation”... There is a video of her weeping over her daughters body crying out “why God?”
Well I can give her an idea “why”....
Putin drunk on camera today. Not a joke.
I saw him drinking on camera.
Drinking the blues away.
I’m sure he isn’t sleeping well at night.
#DrunkPutin.
I expect the media will pick up on the story shortly. Not a good look for Putin today. What was he thinking?
“Drunk putin explains why strikes against Ukrainian infrastructure will continue because “they started first by attacking the Crimean bridge””
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1600847388242894848
Putin’s drunk video is starting to get picked up by the UK media.
“According to the AAA, the national average price for a gallon of regular petrol now stands at $3.329. U.S. national average gas prices have plummeted so much that Americans are now paying less for gas than they were at this time a year ago.”
“Diesel prices are also falling, having declined 15.4 cents in the last week and now stands at $5.000 per gallon as per AAA. However, diesel prices are still $1.388 cents higher than a year ago.”
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/US-Gasoline-Prices-Plunge-Below-Year-Ago-Levels.html
RuZZia Falling Apart...
“Ukraine Says Western Allies Shouldn’t Fear Russia Falling Apart”
“KYIV, Ukraine—Ukraine’s foreign minister called on the country’s allies not to fear a possible breakup of the Russian state as a consequence of the war, while defending Kyiv’s right to strike targets on Russian soil and vowing that Ukraine would never accept a peace settlement that leaves occupied lands, including Crimea, under Moscow’s control.
Though Ukraine’s Western allies are united over the goal of preventing a Ukrainian defeat, not all embrace the objective of a full-blown Ukrainian military victory, with Kyiv regaining not just the lands it lost since the February invasion but also the Crimean Peninsula and the parts of the eastern Donetsk and Luhansk regions that fell under Russian rule in 2014.
Some of these allies worry that such an outcome could profoundly destabilize the nuclear-armed Russian state, potentially leading to its fragmentation and wide-scale unrest, with unpredictable consequences for the rest of the world. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Monday that Washington’s focus is on supporting Ukraine to take back territory seized by Russia since launching its invasion on Feb. 24.”
Infantry without armor...
“Russians March on Foot to Advance Yards in Bloody Eastern Ukraine Battle”
“Moscow’s troops have taken positions at the gates of the crossroads city of Bakhmut, sending in waves of infantry despite growing losses”
“BAKHMUT, Ukraine—Oleksander Matviyenko, a junior officer in the Ukrainian army here on one of the most hotly contested front lines of the war, fights off Russian attacks with other defenders nearly every day. But they keep on coming.
“We shoot at them, they send more. It doesn’t end,” said Lt. Matviyenko, 26, a yellow-and-blue Ukrainian flag patched onto his olive-green uniform. “There’s so many of them.”
The battle for Bakhmut has become a bloodbath for both sides as Russia steps up its attempts to take what used to be a quaint, tree-lined city. Ukrainian defense officials said Moscow is losing around 50 soldiers a day to maintain a slow, bruising advance to reach the city’s easternmost gates.”
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