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China claims to reach the level of a moderately developed country by 2035. Is this possible?
Quora ^ | Zhao Dashuai

Posted on 11/05/2022 9:06:47 PM PDT by SeekAndFind

Let me be super real here, if China keeps developing under the current dollar dominated system and do nothing. It will probably plateau at Poland level of GDP per capita of around $15,000 nominal per capita. scary isn’t it? spoiler alert, China has already begun changing the system since 2012.

It doesn’t matter how fast can a country make good quality desirable product. As long as your country’s currency reserve is pegged to your US dollar reserve, then you cannot surpass the US economy in size. This is a hard ceiling no country can break when you live under the yoke of the American dollar hegemony.

The Above are various economies as a percentage of the 100% US economy. EU, despite its competitive products and larger population, only stabilizes around 80% of the US economy.

The blue is USA’ GDP per capita, with the 100% flattline. The rest are different economies shown as a percentage of the US economy GDP per capita. Keep in mind this is a logarithmic scale. Red is Japan, Green South Korea, Purple is China, teal is Vietnam.

Why is that? is it because Americans are so smart and much better workers?

NO, it’s because all other countries sells products and services, while the Americans sells US dollars. So you can’t sustain infinite linear economic growth when your central bank can’t print US dollar.

In order for China to break the US dollar ceiling, China MUST appreciate their currency, make sure RMB issuance and reserve is not pegged to China’s US dollar reserve, increase the use of sovereign debt denominated in RMB and other means as substitute.

China luckily has already started doing this since 2012. Thanks to Xi Jinping, now you know why some in the West hates him so much.

For more reasons why the West hates Xi Jinping, refer to the Ecological Civilization growth strategy proposed by Xi Jinping:

This also means that China must become a largely Importing nation, and trade must be mostly done using RMB. This is where the Belt and Road initiative comes in.

Besides the Belt and Road initiative, a new economic strategy proposed by Xi jinping administration, is the Dual Circulation economy, this sets China up as a consumption driven economy, that would prioritize import and consumption while internationalizing the RMB.

It is this set of monetary, economic and geopolitical strategies that will see China break the US dollar hegemony, and become a moderately developed society by 2035.

Once a hole is punctured and China breaths the free air above the American hegemonic ceiling. The rest of the world would want to follow, only then can the world break free from the bondage of America.

So China surpassing the United States is far from just coasting along the current model and expect China to surpass the US automatically, there are many policy and structural changes China needs implement for it to happen.

WIth the dollar hegemony gone, the days of Americans getting free lunch by exporting their inflation to the rest of the world is over.

With no free lunch, the American military hegemony, scientific hegemony and cultural hegemony will also crumble one by one. This is the long term goal. might not be fully realized until the middle of this century.

Chinese RMB breaking the dollar hegemony doesn’t mean the US dollar is suddenly useless, it’ll still be one of the most important currency. It’s just that the power would be shared more evenly between US dollar, Chinese RMB and Euro.

China represents 20% of humanity, If the dollar hegemony is kept, then that means 20% of humanity cannot surpass 4% of humanity who are Americans, the problem with the current system is that 4% of Americans are enjoying resources way above their share.


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Society
KEYWORDS: china; development; economy
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To: SeekAndFind
It doesn’t matter how fast can a country make good quality desirable product. As long as your country’s currency reserve is pegged to your US dollar reserve, then you cannot surpass the US economy in size.

Why not?

There is no logic to this idea.

If it were true, then why does the combination of Europe and China far surpass the United States in size?

The world outside the United States far surpasses the United States economy.

The United States economy is only about 13.6% of the world's economy.

China's economy is already larger than the United States, according to many.

After WWII, the United States economy was a far larger percent of the world's economy. In the mostly peaceful period since WWII, the leadership of the United States, and particularly the immense aid it has given to China, have dropped its percentage of the world economy from 50% to 13.6%.

21 posted on 11/06/2022 4:15:27 AM PST by marktwain
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To: SeekAndFind

Not if most of the women are already over 40, and no young people want to have children. The birth rate now is 10.92 per 1000, Stated as births per woman, it is 1.15. These rates are getting lower every year as the population ages.


22 posted on 11/06/2022 4:17:18 AM PST by proxy_user
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To: SeekAndFind

Not in perpetual lockdown.


23 posted on 11/06/2022 6:18:27 AM PST by GingisK
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To: cranked

China now can’t import any of the equipment necessary to make high-end or mix-range semiconductor chips, and can’t even import the machinery to make the tools to make those chips. A more detailed explanation is here: https://youtu.be/4XqMKu0HJyY

That, and they import 80% of their oil, about 89% of which comes through several easily blocked straits on its long journey to China. Any nation with a couple of destroyers that us ticked of with China can credibly threaten to block that flow.

Demographics will also kill China. Their population will be roughly cut in half in the next 40-50 years.

Between those 3 things, China is a dead man walking.


24 posted on 11/06/2022 8:12:16 AM PST by Ancesthntr (“The right to buy weapons is the right to be free.” ― A.E. Van Vogt, The Weapons Shops of Isher)
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To: ifinnegan

RE: Why did you post Chicom propaganda?

How is this Chico’s propaganda?

It’s telling us that China cannot overtake the USA as
the world’s most dominant economy.

Propaganda does not even make such an acknowledgment


25 posted on 11/06/2022 8:22:52 AM PST by SeekAndFind
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To: marktwain

RE: if it were true, then why does the combination of Europe and China far surpass the United States in size?

Why do you need to COMBINE all 28 countries to surpass the US in size?

And why don’t these countries combine with China and also India to UNPEG their trade from the USD?


26 posted on 11/06/2022 9:29:24 AM PST by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind
And why don’t these countries combine with China and also India to UNPEG their trade from the USD?

Why would they?

They, and China particularly, have prospered tremendously under the current system.

27 posted on 11/06/2022 9:48:59 AM PST by marktwain
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To: SeekAndFind

China luckily has already started doing this since 2012. Thanks to Xi Jinping, now you know why some in the West hates him so much.

For more reasons why the West hates Xi Jinping, refer to the Ecological Civilization growth strategy proposed by Xi Jinping:

That’s not why people hate Xi Jinping.


28 posted on 11/06/2022 1:46:03 PM PST by ifinnegan (Democrats kill babies and harvest their organs to sell)
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To: cranked

https://www.theepochtimes.com/why-chinas-marriage-crisis-is-an-existential-threat-to-the-country_4845110.html?utm_source=partner&utm_campaign=ZeroHedge


29 posted on 11/07/2022 6:51:25 AM PST by Ancesthntr (“The right to buy weapons is the right to be free.” ― A.E. Van Vogt, The Weapons Shops of Isher)
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