Posted on 09/08/2022 7:29:53 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
Starshe = lieutenant.
“A Pentagon official explained how the U.S. helped turn ship-based Harpoons into truck-based weapons used by Ukraine to sink two Russian ships.”
I just posted on this also!
No. In warfare you either destroy an exposed force or you give it the opportunity to somehow withdraw or counterattack. The Ukrainians were not able to destroy a Russian convoy that stretched for nine miles and sat motionless for two weeks earlier in the war. The tactical opportunity at Kherson rarely occurs in war. Competent commanders would take advantage of such an opportunity.
Great minds and all that.
new shiny just minted troll: TacticalEgressWaypoint Sep 6, 2022
TacticalEgressWaypoint should volunteer for Wagner. Better use of his time.
Tank losses are still a good proxy for this war.
Yesterday’s number was 1012
This morning 1023
Currently at 1028 for tomorrows report. And could go higher.
That’s 16 tanks in 2 days.
Ukraine does well, the tank losses reflect it.
“Russia expects the price of its natural gas exports will more than double this year compared to a year ago”
Those purported expectations, and five dollars, could get them a coffee at Starbucks (for which they would now have to travel outside their country).
The peak of the wartime surge in both oil and natural gas prices has passed, and both are down by a third. Gas exports volumes have crashed dramatically - for good. Those customers are not coming back, and that gas cannot physically move to other customers for at least a decade, if they had Marshall Plan-like funding, which they don’t.
So it does not really matter what the year’s average is, because the party is over. Revenues are now way down, on lower prices and lower volumes. Even with the big initial revenue surge, their deficit increased and their economy shrank in the first half, due to the war and sanctions. Revenues were up, but costs were up by more.
Now that revenues have plunged, sanctions and war expenses are continuing to increase.
Oh, and China is not selling (and certainly not gifting) weaponry, for fear of being sanctioned themselves. In fact, a lot of Chinese companies, especially tech, have pulled out from Russia, to protect their much larger interests in the West. Just this week, UnionPay announced that they were pulling out, leaving Russia without modern credit card transaction capability. Visa, Mastercard and others have already exited.
I know they have, the latest at IKEA, the new, simple cave dwelling motif.
One of the earlier packages announced the inclusion of 1,000 Excalibur rounds.
I saw a report that the next package (about $675 M) was just approved, but haven’t seen what it includes yet.
I want to re-emphasize some critical points:
1. Russia attacked Ukraine with a small force that was one-third the size of the defending Ukrainian force. Advantage Ukraine and yet, despite the fact that Russia was outnumbered, Russia steadily pushed Ukraine back, taking Mariupol, Kherson and Luhansk.
2. At no point did Russia declare any kind of timeline for accomplishing its stated mission of demilitarization and denazification.
3. The bulk of the fighting from the Russian side is being handled by the militias from the Donbas. Russia has committed only a small fraction of its troops.
4. Despite a massive influx of western military aid, Ukraine has been unable to force the Russians to retreat. Those who want to point to the current Ukrainian offensive as a stunning success are ignoring Ukraine’s massive losses in men and equipment during the past week.Capturing a couple of isolated, unihabited rural villages is not exactly a 21st Century version of Omar Bradley’s Operation Cobra, which was led by General Patton and broke out of hedge row country in Normandy.
In short, Ambassador Taylor and other unnamed U.S. officials (both active and retired) are insisting that the United States is no longer afraid of what Russia might do. Why? Because Russia is on the ropes and struggling to stay in the fight. This is a dangerous delusion.
###
Let me suggest an alternative explanation for Russia’s slow, methodical approach in Ukraine. Russia is committed to the demilitarization of Ukraine. Russia’s current campaign not only is destroying Ukraine’s army and the tanks, planes, helicopters and vehicles, but it also is forcing the United States and NATO to strip themselves of weapons that will not be quickly replaced in the near term. In other words, without risking a direct confrontation with NATO, Russia also is weakening NATO. And Putin does not have to turn Ukraine into a smoldering, nuclear wasteland with millions of dead Ukrainians. Seems like a reasonable approach to me.
The weakening of NATO also is being accelerated with economic weapons–i.e., cutting off the sale of gas and oil. Without gas and oil, Europe’s war industry is grinding to a halt. I do not know if this is part of the Russian plan for the Special Military Operation or just a happy serendipity that serves Russia’s interests. Regardless, the effect hurts NATO.
I do not pretend to know what plan Russia’s General Staff is following. What I do know is that none of the weapons supplied by the United States and NATO have changed the strategic goal of Russia to demilitarize Ukraine and eliminate a NATO threat on the western border. That means Russia’s ability to continue moving west is not eliminated and Ukraine’s prospects grow more bleak.
“I want to re-emphasize some critical points:”
Jump in a lake Dirty RuZZian.
Henry Hub Natural Gas Spot Price - Historical Annual Data
Year Average
Closing Price Year Open Year High Year Low Year Close Annual
% Change
2022 $6.59 $3.74 $9.85 $3.73 $9.10 138.22%
2021 $3.89 $2.60 $23.86 $2.43 $3.82 61.86%
You can argue all you want about the price of gas going down over the next three months as we go into winter (snicker), but the bulk of Putin’s windfall is already in the bank.
“The military aid will include rockets for multiple-launch rocket systems, four 105 mm howitzers with 36,000 rounds, high-speed missiles to target enemy radar, 5,000 antitank missiles, 1,000 antitank mines, 100 Humvees, 1.5 million rounds of ammunition for small arms, 50 armored medical-treatment vehicles, night-vision equipment, small arms and grenade launchers, a State Department spokesman said.”
“The declared Ukrainian offensive in Kherson region may have been a head fake to distract the Ruskies from an offensive in the Kharkiv region.”
UA was building up forces for Kharkiv offensive over the course of a month. 9000 troops, equipment and logistics.
Maybe planned to coincide with the Kherson offensive.
https://www.newsweek.com/russian-troops-encircled-surrounded-ukraine-kharkiv-balakliya-1740601
“Russian Troops Likely Encircled in Ukraine, Ex-Russian Military Leader Says”
Russian troops may be encircled in Balakliya, an occupied town near Kharkiv, a former Russian military leader has said, amid reports of a Ukrainian counteroffensive in the region.
On August 5, 2022 JonPreston put up the following post about me on this topic here:
https://freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/4083332/posts
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8/5/2022, 9:40:05 AM · 60 of 104
JonPreston to MercyFlush
Alphas like me are the real men. In contrast are you Beta males: weak, submissive, subordinate guys who are low status, eager to follow trends. This explains your attempt at stolen military valor that I’ve documented thoroughly. Please go away, and stop reporting me to the mods when I expose your neoconservativism!
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He claims to have ‘thoroughly documented’ my alleged “attempt at stolen military valor” and I have repeatedly challenged him to publicly publish this claimed documentation of his or to publicly issue a retraction.
Is JonPreston a liar? Is he a braggart? Is he a troll?
Ask him for his ‘thorough documentation’ and then you be the judge.
“The Ukrainian soldiers never had a chance to withstand the might of the Russian military. None whatsoever. That was recognizable from the very onset of the war. That the Ukrainian government and its backers tried to withstand the onslaught was illogical.”
Yet here we are today and the Ukrainians are advancing along several fronts. In some places they’re advancing utterly unopposed as the Russians withdraw/flee.
Kherson will soon be in Ukrainian hands again as the Russian supply and reinforcement lines are severed. Hopefully Putin will let his forces in Kherson withdraw instead of forcing them to fight to the last man or be taken prisoner.
JonPreston is an ‘Alpha male’?
Ha.
Then go join Wagner.
Post pics from the front lines.
“ No. In warfare you either destroy an exposed force or you give it the opportunity to somehow withdraw or counterattack”
Google “siege” for more options. Also “cordon”.
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