“Russia expects the price of its natural gas exports will more than double this year compared to a year ago”
Those purported expectations, and five dollars, could get them a coffee at Starbucks (for which they would now have to travel outside their country).
The peak of the wartime surge in both oil and natural gas prices has passed, and both are down by a third. Gas exports volumes have crashed dramatically - for good. Those customers are not coming back, and that gas cannot physically move to other customers for at least a decade, if they had Marshall Plan-like funding, which they don’t.
So it does not really matter what the year’s average is, because the party is over. Revenues are now way down, on lower prices and lower volumes. Even with the big initial revenue surge, their deficit increased and their economy shrank in the first half, due to the war and sanctions. Revenues were up, but costs were up by more.
Now that revenues have plunged, sanctions and war expenses are continuing to increase.
Oh, and China is not selling (and certainly not gifting) weaponry, for fear of being sanctioned themselves. In fact, a lot of Chinese companies, especially tech, have pulled out from Russia, to protect their much larger interests in the West. Just this week, UnionPay announced that they were pulling out, leaving Russia without modern credit card transaction capability. Visa, Mastercard and others have already exited.
Henry Hub Natural Gas Spot Price - Historical Annual Data
Year Average
Closing Price Year Open Year High Year Low Year Close Annual
% Change
2022 $6.59 $3.74 $9.85 $3.73 $9.10 138.22%
2021 $3.89 $2.60 $23.86 $2.43 $3.82 61.86%
You can argue all you want about the price of gas going down over the next three months as we go into winter (snicker), but the bulk of Putin’s windfall is already in the bank.