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Democrats' worst Trump nightmare
https://www.axios.com ^ | April 19, 2022 | Mike Allen

Posted on 04/19/2022 8:41:12 AM PDT by Red Badger

There's something much worse than losing the House, and possibly the Senate, that's rattling top Democrats who are studying polling and election trends:

The big picture: It's the possibility of a re-elected President Trump with a compliant, filibuster-proof Senate majority in January 2025.

Why it matters: It's impossible to forecast elections. But you can look at the states with Senate elections in 2024 and see why some Democrats are sounding the alarm.

"Democrats are sleepwalking into a Senate disaster," Yale's Simon Bazelon wrote last week on Matt Yglesias' Substack, Slow Boring

"The 2024 map is much worse," Bazelon added. A close presidential election, he wrote, could doom Democratic Sens. Jon Tester in Montana ... Joe Manchin in West Virginia ... Sherrod Brown in Ohio ... Bob Casey in Pennsylvania ... Tammy Baldwin in Wisconsin ... Kyrsten Sinema in Arizona. Plus toss-ups could threaten Sens. Debbie Stabenow in Michigan and Jackie Rosen in Nevada. In all those states, hardcore liberalism is a tough sell. Then factor in that most of the GOP senators who stood up to Trump and his brand of politics will be gone: Sens. Rob Portman of Ohio and Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania, who are retiring after this term, and former Sen. Jeff Flake of Arizona.

Now toss in the widespread belief in both parties that the House majority will be lost by Democrats in 2022 — and maintained, if not expanded, in 2024. Plus perhaps the most worrisome indicator for Democrats on the political dashboard: The party's edge with Hispanic voters has shrunk. So you see why John Anzalone, President Biden's campaign pollster, recently told a Politico podcast this is "the worst political environment that I’ve lived through in 30 years of being a political consultant."

There are several ways Democrats could overcome the GOP’s decisive map edge:

Dems could nominate a presidential candidate who wins decisively — with a clear majority. That typically lifts party candidates in close races. Or the GOP could nominate a presidential candidate who can't command a majority, or unelectable Senate candidates. Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell warns anyone who'll listen that if the GOP keeps putting up fringe candidates, the party will blow an epic opportunity. The bottom line: David Shor, one of Democrats' most respected data scientists, has been sounding the alarm for months. "Unless we see big structural changes in the Democratic party's coalition," he tweeted, the 2024 outcome could be "Donald Trump winning a *filibuster-proof trifecta* [House, Senate, White House] with a minority of the vote."

Editor's note: This article has been corrected to change "veto-proof" to "filibuster-proof" in the second paragraph.


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Government; Politics; Society
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To: kiryandil

Those 81,000,000 Brandon voters, ya never know which way they might go?!?


21 posted on 04/19/2022 9:40:12 AM PDT by JJBookman (Not really :-( )
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To: Red Badger
Trump's going around the country choosing the support team he'll need to get the country back on the right track...

(Trump choose DeSantis over the GOP Party choice in Florida years ago - and it worked out beautifully...)


22 posted on 04/19/2022 9:41:25 AM PDT by GOPJ (Being a sexual weirdo should NOT be a path to power.)
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To: Red Badger

More good news.... finally.


23 posted on 04/19/2022 9:42:05 AM PDT by tired&retired (Blessings )
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To: Red Badger

Dems could nominate a presidential candidate who wins decisively — with a clear majority.

Like another 81,000,000 votes again look out hope the trap is set for them and every day turns out to be their worst Trump nightmare.


24 posted on 04/19/2022 9:56:10 AM PDT by Vaduz ( )
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To: Red Badger

Too many RINOs


25 posted on 04/19/2022 10:10:28 AM PDT by CarolinaReaganFan
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To: Red Badger

The Democrats’ worst nightmare is the honest man’s fondest dream.


26 posted on 04/19/2022 10:28:09 AM PDT by Savage Beast (Saints are sinners who never gave up. --Saint Teresa of Avila)
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To: Red Badger
"the most worrisome indicator for Democrats on the political dashboard: The party's edge with Hispanic voters has shrunk"

Who wants to migrate to a sinking ship!

27 posted on 04/19/2022 10:34:48 AM PDT by Savage Beast (Saints are sinners who never gave up. --Saint Teresa of Avila)
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To: Red Badger

But hardcore Democrats sleep soundly knowing that they have a foolproof stopgap: massive election fraud which a woke Supreme Court will wholeheartedly support.


28 posted on 04/19/2022 10:39:18 AM PDT by Savage Beast (Saints are sinners who never gave up. --Saint Teresa of Avila)
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To: Red Badger

The day after that inauguration, the gallows go up and the tribunals begin.


29 posted on 04/19/2022 10:42:57 AM PDT by nonliberal (Z.)
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To: Red Badger

Interesting read. Rats are gunna be Rats...what I am “reading” from this is turnout and which way the Indies go are really the factors.

Can the Rats be reigned in enough where there are minimal shenanigans with ballots and tallies ?


30 posted on 04/19/2022 11:51:17 AM PDT by stylin19a ("Death Smiles At Everyone - Marines Smile Back")
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To: Red Badger
I disagree. Trump's worst nightmare is not the democrats. It is the RINO republicans.

Isn't it interesting that the democrats normally have the backing from 100% of their members while the republicans almost always have several who vote against what the republican majority votes for.

31 posted on 04/19/2022 12:48:13 PM PDT by eeriegeno (Checks and balances??? What checks and balances?)
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To: Red Badger
""Unless we see big structural changes in the Democratic party's coalition"

Open Borders, anyone?

32 posted on 04/19/2022 12:52:27 PM PDT by outofsalt (If history teaches us anything, it's that history rarely teaches anything.)
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To: Red Badger; bitt
***John Anzalone, President Biden's campaign pollster, recently told a Politico podcast this is "the worst political environment that I’ve lived through in 30 years of being a political consultant."***

Does it feel like H3ll, John? 😠

33 posted on 04/19/2022 1:50:25 PM PDT by Bob Ireland (The Democrap Party is the enemy of freedom.They use all the seductions and deceits of the Bolshevics)
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