Posted on 01/09/2022 9:38:16 PM PST by SeekAndFind
A number of studies are converging on the fact that 2 doses of vaccination has poor vaccine effectiveness against Omicron. 3 doses does slightly better, but the effect will rapidly wane as antibody titers fall, and infection is certain as the number of exposures increase.
These studies have immediate implications for vaccine and health-care policies.
First, Kaiser Southern California. Here are data for 2 doses of mRNA for effectiveness against Omicron. Follow the red line. Over time, it is 0%.
3 doses does better, for now. But look at the confidence interval of the red line. We have no idea if it will be preserved.
Now, let’s turn to the Province of Ontario, vaccine effectiveness 2 dose or 3 dose is in the toilet; Note the y axis, and broad confidence interval post dose 3. Here dose 3 would fail to meet the FDA standard of at least 50% VE, with lower bound CI >30%— the standard for EUA.
Now let us examine Denmark; here are the raw probabilities of secondary attack in a household.
Putting these 3 studies together: what is the conclusion? Two doses of vaccine does nothing or almost nothing to stop symptomatic sars-cov-2. Three doses barely does anything, and the effect will likely attenuate over time. Finally, as the number of exposures increase from 2 to 22 to 202, the cumulative probability of infection will approach 1.
NOTE: This is not an argument about the benefits of vaccination for the individual— vaccines likely (and evidence shows they) still have great protection against severe disease; instead this is an argument about the effects of vaccination on symptomatic diseases, and (some good portion of) transmission.
Conclusion: you cannot contain the viral spread of omicron by boosting.
The moment we see that, the policy conclusions start to fall into place.
Booster mandates make no sense for young people/ working people/ hospitals/ anywhere. Young people will only be, at best, slightly less likely to spread for a short period of time, but the epidemic waves will eventually over take them. Boosting should happen in populations where it further reduces severe disease and death— aka older and vulnerable people. Focus on that and let college kids off the hook.
Some argue there is still a justification to boost because you can help prevent hospitals from being overwhelmed. Sadly, that argument fails in several ways. First, you have no evidence boosting younger people will slow hospitalizations. A vaccinated younger person already has very low risk of being hospitalized. Boosting may not further lower what is already very low. We simply have no evidence. Event rates are sparse at those ages.
Second, this argument would mean the state could tell people what to eat and how much to exercise, and how much to drink. Food, drink and obesity are drivers of hospitalizations. Instead, we have not accepted these infringements in the past. The justification for vaccine mandates is that it helps curb population spread. The latest vaccine effectiveness figures show that effect is now nearly gone, and transient at best. Ergo, the mandates are unjustified.
Firing nurses and other health care workers for being non-compliant with mandates is now defeating. We are better off having them work. Time to bring them back.
Draconian avoidance of omicron is not tenable. Omicron or a future variant will eventually find us all. It may even be preferable to encounter omicron a few weeks or months after your last vaccine than a year or two later, as the infection may be milder. As I explain in a prior post, wearing an n95 makes no sense.
It is time to face reality.
Vinay Prasad MD MPH is a hematologist-oncologist and Associate Professor in the Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics at the University of California San Francisco. He runs the VKPrasad lab at UCSF, which studies cancer drugs, health policy, clinical trials and better decision making. He is author of over 300 academic articles, and the books Ending Medical Reversal (2015), and Malignant (2020).
Pretty well true...as before stated, moving on a year ago to a treatment protocol keeping in mind there would be both a peak vaccination utilization as well as peak effectiveness with the window of opportunity presented for those months would have been the best strategy - instead the Biden administration is *blocking* states from pursuing this.
And yet, protection against SEVERITY does not underpin the EUAs. These shots were formulated to PROTECT against CONTRACTING COVID19.
Let's look at the actual FDA and Pfizer-BioNTech info.
On August 23, 2021, the FDA approved the first COVID-19 vaccine. The vaccine has been known as the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine, and will now be marketed as Comirnaty, for the prevention of COVID-19 disease in individuals 16 years of age and older.(emphasis added)
Per the Comernity Insert,
--------------------------- INDICATIONS AND USAGE----------------------------
COMIRNATY is a vaccine indicated for active immunization to prevent coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in individuals 16 years of age and older. (1)(emphasis added>
Per the Summary Basis for Regulatory Action, under "Indication"
Active immunization to prevent coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in individuals 16 years of age and older. (Emphasis added)
Clearly, the vaccine is for PREVENTION. Nothing else.
As most of us here have believed from the beginning, COVID-19 is going to “have its way” and infect most of us sooner or later. The best approach remains to protect the vulnerable as best as we can and for those people with low vulnerability (the healthy young) “let ‘er rip”. Don’t close schools and don’t isolate people who are not ill and don’t constantly test people who are not ill.
With Omicron it is quickly becoming endemic, meaning it is everywhere. But many if not most people fight it off without ever being aware that their immune system was working overtime.
Still playing games.
It doesn’t protect against any of them.
It’s not Omicron. It’s any.
Maybe it helps reduce the severity of a case.
Maybe. It’s not established yet as far as I know.
It’s hard to tell, perhaps impossible, because even before the vaccines so many cases were mild or completely asymptomatic.
As most of us here have believed from the beginning, COVID-19 is going to “have its way” and infect most of us sooner or later. The best approach remains to protect the vulnerable as best as we can and for those people with low vulnerability (the healthy young) “let ‘er rip”. Don’t close schools and don’t isolate people who are not ill and don’t constantly test people who are not ill.
Finally, a reasonable post.
“With Omicron it is quickly becoming endemic, meaning it is everywhere. But many if not most people fight it off without ever being aware that their immune system was working overtime.”
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I agree that Omicron is pretty much everywhere now. Since I got my second Moderna shot last April, I’ve been hoping to pick up an actual COVID-19 case to further strengthen my immunity. I thought for sure last summer and fall that Delta would find me. It didn’t. I’m failing again at contracting a case of Omicron (which is kinda like failing a college course in basket weaving).
Maybe in a few months I’ll take an antibody test to see if I picked up an asymptomatic case.
It's ridiculous how people are now trying to determine which so called variant they have when the tests don't define those differences.
And I greatly question any test for covid as accurate since there's been far too many that have missed the mark.
I’ve had the flu twice in my entire life....colds now and then we use to call “bugs”....all over the winter months. So far I’ve had none this winter or last either.
I’m truly not convinced those tests are accurate...nor is the data, which changes every other day and or denied.
I think we’re all on our own to determine what’s going on here and it looks like it’s all more political than anything else.
I watched a scientist say on Fox that Omicron was a gain of function virus leaked from a South African lab.
bmfl
If you can, donate some blood. They test for wuhan antibodies. Free and ya help out someone in the future.
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