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REMINDER - My Ping list got corrupted overnight and having to rebuild from one from 2019. Pass the word to your friends to contact me to be reestablished on the Ping list.
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TRUCKER PROTESTS

US convoy -
- Fence is surrounding the US capitol in response to the trucker protest.

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Economy -

Global and domestic economy attempting to gauge impacts from the latest round of sanctions against Russia.

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has increased its consumer food price forecast. Food price increase estimates due to inflation ranged between 2-5%.
OBSERVATION - This likely is an underestimate.

Unbelievably , US sanctions have avoided Russian oil production. WH spokeswoman said the US should stop relying on an oil based economy and go green instead of restoring our oil industry.
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Invasion of Illegals -

Texas ranchers are turning down the Biden administration for money covering damages caused by the surge of migrants at the southern border, the Washington Examiner reported
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Biden watch -

Biden remained in Delaware over the weekend in the face of increased nuclear threats from Russia and the conflict in Ukraine.

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CW2/Domestic violence -

Like the tremors at a volcano as its magma chamber fills as a precursor to an eruption, I’m seeing signs that Antifa is looking to conduct operations similar to 2016 Presidential campaign of targeting rallies to attack Republicans and attack conservative commentators on college campuses. With democrat poll numbers in the trash, the leftists may call out their brownshirt Antifa forces to suppress turnout or create a level of chaos.

10 Year anniversary of travon martin.
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POLITICAL FRONT -

Leftist Bill Maher astounded that the ‘squad’ would put forth a rebuttal to bidens SOTU address.

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Strategic Activity / Deployments -

U.S. Army Troops in Europe have tour of duty extended. (CNN)
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Cyber Warfare -

The Cybersecurity Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) and Federal Bureau of Investigations (FBI) issued a joint cyber advisory covering the malware used during the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Agencies state that there are “no specific or credible cyber threats to the U.S. homeland at this time”; however, imposing stricter sanctions might bring about a Russian cyber response.
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China -

In a Friday telephone call between China’s Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin, Xi acknowledged the security concerns of Russia that drove its invasion of Ukraine but called for negotiations to settle the conflict between the two countries.
OBSERVATION -This appears to be an attempt by Xi to mitigate any sanctions against China for its support of Russia.
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Russia -

WAR WATCH - The Battle for Kyiv continues - Kyiv still stands after 5 days. This situation is rapidly developing and remains fluid.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Putin desperation may be manifested in more brutal indiscriminate artillery/bombing of civilian targets .
ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

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Russian markets are in a state of meltdown. Bank of Russia raising its key interest rate to 20% from 9.5%. Russian stock market delayed opening until 3 PM local. Ruble at all time lows. This has caused bank runs to begin as Russians rush to pull money out of their accounts before banks freeze them.

Bank of China’s Singapore operation has stopped financing deals involving Russian oil and Russian companies, amid concerns of western sanctions following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Reuters
South Korea will tighten export controls against Russia by banning shipments of strategic items and join Western countries’ moves to block some Russian banks from the SWIFT international payments system, Seoul’s foreign ministry said on Monday.

No fly sanctions against Russian aircraft - civilian and military have encircled a significant portion of Russia. Russia retaliated by banning foreign airlines from Russia.

The websites belonging to the Russian propaganda news media TASS, Izvestia, Fontaka, RBC and Kommersant are hacked by Anonymous.

Over the weekend, several Russian language media outlets discussed the possibility of an insurgency kicking off in Ukraine after the Ukrainian military defense collapses. Some statements saying that the Afghanistation of Ukraine - a reference to Russia’s debacle in that country.

In response to additional sanctions levied by other countries yesterday for Russia’s unnecessary increase in nuclear alert status, Putin additionally ordered Russian submarine & airborne nuclear forces on combat alert. These are not deterrent forces & is a dangerous escalation.
So far, OSINT and governmental intelligence sources note that no specific movement of Russian strategic forces has yet been observed since Putin ordered the increase in their readiness level.

As of yesterday, Russia has reportedly committed an estimated additional 10-15% of staged troops, bringing the total to roughly 60-70%, or 105,000 – 120,000 troops. Putin seems to be calling in more chips in an effort to get more combat forces into Ukraine. In addition to Belarus and Chechen forces, word is that about 400 mercenaries of the private military company Wagner Group have been thrown into Kyiv battle. RUMINT is the Wagner Group mercenaries goal is to assassinate Ukraine government officials. Putin may be looking at Libya as other potential source of forces Russia tries to get to the battle.
Russia has been expending tactical missiles at a rate of about 100 / day. Some analysts indicate that Russia may run out in the next few days at the rate.

OBSERVATIONS - Numerous analysts continue to express a level of astonishment at the poor planning and execution of this attack by the Russian military. Everything from Russian committing forces in peace meal, pealing apart of the BTG’s, no supporting attacks, lack luster air domination and logistics failures. Most of Russia’s tank, mechanized, and heavy armor movements in Ukraine have been on major roads and not off-road, setting themselves up for classical armor ambushes.
I’ve noted these would be issues before the conflict began. The Russian military has not tried to maneuver a force this size since WW2. Army is full of poorly trained conscripts and no NCO core to back up the officer corps. Logistics nightmare of trying to supply a large force extended over a very wide front and via difficult terrain.

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Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Temperatures forecast thru March 9th show temperatures in the mid 30’s with rain/snow.
This forecast indicates that soil conditions are shifting from frozen much softer. New moon on March 2d.

I’VE SEEN IT ALL - Ukrainian farmer apparently capturing an abandoned Russian 9K33 OSA surface-to-air missile system by simply hooking it up to his tractor and driving away with it.

24 HOUR ROUND UP

Ukrainian President Zelensky signs application for EU membership

Relatively quiet overnight however some Russian tactics appear to have changed.

Negotiations between Ukraine and Russia ended — they lasted almost 3 hours, Pravda Ukraine reports. No initial breakthroughs.
Advisor to President Zelensky says that Ukraine at talks in Homiel insist on withdrawing of Russian troops from all internationally recognized Ukrainian lands, including whole Donetsk and Luhansk regions and Crimea

Kyiv front - A large force of Russian armor appears to be stalled 30 KM north of the city. Ukraine defenders reinforcing positions for resumptions of attacks.

Northern Front (Chernihv region ) - Advances still stalled out by Ukraine resistance and currently unable to provide a supporting attack on Kyiv.
North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy - Khariv salient) - Very little significant movement of armor units that bypassed cities in an effort to pressure Kyiv, probably evidence of inability to get refueled / re armed. Reports coming in of indiscriminate artillery and bombing attacks on Kharkiv that appear to be targeting residential areas. Reports of cluster munitions being used in residential areas of Kharkiv as well. Some observers noting the pattern following what Russia has done in Syria. Kharkiv has come under some of the most intense artillery fire of any locations.

Eastern Front - Separatist/Russian forces managed a breakout on the northern portion of the dombass separatist area toward Lysychansk. On the south end, forces have been pressing Mariupol reinforced by an amphibious assault.

Crimea Front - Gains noted northeastward towards Mariupol following amphibious operations. Efforts continue towards Odessa.

The Turkish TB2 drones are marking up a fairly impressive record against Russian targets. This drone has been the bane of Russian and russian supported forces in Libya, Syria and Armenia. Those were low to mid intensity conflicts, this is its first try in a high intensity environment. They seem to love to take out Russian ADA systems.

Pause in the intensity of fighting is providing an opportunity for European nations to attempt to resupply Ukraine with anti armor and anti aircraft weapons. One of the biggest stirs is that with funding from Brussels, Eastern European nations (Poland, Hungary, etc) will be suppling Ukraine with more SU-27 fighters. The big discussion was pilots. One source stated that Ukraine pilots were already transported there while other reports of European ‘volunteers’ piloting them under the flag of a ‘Ukraine Foreign Legion’ and the planes being staged out of Poland. This could be an interesting twist.

Current map of depicting Russian advance into Ukraine produced by wikipedia found here -
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4f/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine.svg

OUTLOOK -

It is unlikely that there will be any break through in negotiations in Belarus. Russia sent a social advisor to Putin - not a very serious selection to represent Russia.
The current lull in Russian operations - most likely an attempt to refuel and resupply - may be the calm before the next storm. Ukraine is not relaxing, but continuing to reinforce their defenses.

Russia will continue to pressure Ukraine in the south as attempts to establish a ‘land bridge’ with the separatist Domabas region. It is uncertain how long the general lull in Russian attacks on the other sectors will last. The switch to widerspread artillery / air bombing on civilian residential areas will likely intensify - an effort to demoralize the citizenry that has so far had a backbone of steel in resisting Russian forces. Some think Putin may go as far as to attempt to bomb Ukraine back into the stone age.

With arms and munitions starting to pour into Ukraine - most significantly access to replacement aircraft the question is how efficiently and effectively can they get them from the western Ukraine to the east where the fighting is going on. Supply convoys would be susceptible to Russia air interdiction. I expect that Russia will have to work hard to close off resupply routes to Kyiv, forcing a diversion of forces currently committed to seizing the capitol.

Concerns of a Belarusian attack into western Ukraine to disrupt resupply attempts from the west. Also potential of increased airstrikes by Russian bombers in the west to disrupt resupply as well.

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Belarus -

US State Department has suspended operations at the US embassy in Belarus, authorized departure of non emergency employees and family members from the embassy in Moscow.

Belarus now being included in international sanctions.

Belarusians voted Monday to allow the country to host nuclear weapons and Russian forces permanently, results showed, part of a package of constitutional reforms that also extended the rule of leader Alexander Lukashenko.

Russia used Iskander missile systems to attack Zhytomyr Airport. The air strikes were conducted from Belarus, using Russian ballistic missile launchers. Earlier, Belarus said it wouldn’t allow air strikes from its territory amid Ukraine’s upcoming peace talks with Russia.
As a result of its open, military support of Russia’s invasion , Belarus is coming under international sanctions.

Video from the western part of the Belarusian-Ukrainian border shows a convoy of 38th Air Assault Brigade of the Belarusian army (not Russian) near Kobryn in Brest region. Most of the vehicles are marked with red squares.

OBSERVATION - There has been rumors/discussion that in addition to supplying forces for the battle of Kyiv, Belarus may launch an attack in the western half of Ukraine to interdict/interrupt resupply of the country from western nations.

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Europe / NATO General -

Switzerland - historically neutral - has announced it is joining EU sanctions against Russia.

Russian ships have been banned from docking in British ports.

French President Macron spoke to Russian President Putin, urging an immediate ceasefire in Ukraine, according to French presidency (Reuters)

The EU has asked its satellite centre in Madrid to provide intelligence to Ukraine about Russian troop movements, the EU’s head diplomat said. “Relations with Russia will no longer be determined by trade,” he said.
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Libya -

Meanwhile in Cyrenaica Libya , the Libyan army LNA is massing and heading west as large convoys of tanks and armored vehicles departing from Benghazi.

OBSERVATION - The LNA has been heavily supported by Russia and Ive not seen any internal issues that would generate such a movement of forces. This could be a possible attempt by Putin to get more combat forces for his Ukraine war. Problem is it would take major airlift operations to get the forces to the theatre. Sea lift is dubious due to restrictions by Turkey at the Bosporus.

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