REMINDER - My Ping list got corrupted overnight and having to rebuild from one from 2019. Pass the word to your friends to contact me to be reestablished on the Ping list.
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TRUCKER PROTESTS
US convoy -
- Fence is surrounding the US capitol in response to the trucker protest.
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Economy -
Global and domestic economy attempting to gauge impacts from the latest round of sanctions against Russia.
The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has increased its consumer food price forecast. Food price increase estimates due to inflation ranged between 2-5%.
OBSERVATION - This likely is an underestimate.
Unbelievably , US sanctions have avoided Russian oil production. WH spokeswoman said the US should stop relying on an oil based economy and go green instead of restoring our oil industry.
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Invasion of Illegals -
Texas ranchers are turning down the Biden administration for money covering damages caused by the surge of migrants at the southern border, the Washington Examiner reported
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Biden watch -
Biden remained in Delaware over the weekend in the face of increased nuclear threats from Russia and the conflict in Ukraine.
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CW2/Domestic violence -
Like the tremors at a volcano as its magma chamber fills as a precursor to an eruption, I’m seeing signs that Antifa is looking to conduct operations similar to 2016 Presidential campaign of targeting rallies to attack Republicans and attack conservative commentators on college campuses. With democrat poll numbers in the trash, the leftists may call out their brownshirt Antifa forces to suppress turnout or create a level of chaos.
10 Year anniversary of travon martin.
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POLITICAL FRONT -
Leftist Bill Maher astounded that the ‘squad’ would put forth a rebuttal to bidens SOTU address.
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Strategic Activity / Deployments -
U.S. Army Troops in Europe have tour of duty extended. (CNN)
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Cyber Warfare -
The Cybersecurity Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) and Federal Bureau of Investigations (FBI) issued a joint cyber advisory covering the malware used during the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Agencies state that there are “no specific or credible cyber threats to the U.S. homeland at this time”; however, imposing stricter sanctions might bring about a Russian cyber response.
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China -
In a Friday telephone call between China’s Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin, Xi acknowledged the security concerns of Russia that drove its invasion of Ukraine but called for negotiations to settle the conflict between the two countries.
OBSERVATION -This appears to be an attempt by Xi to mitigate any sanctions against China for its support of Russia.
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Russia -
WAR WATCH - The Battle for Kyiv continues - Kyiv still stands after 5 days. This situation is rapidly developing and remains fluid.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Putin desperation may be manifested in more brutal indiscriminate artillery/bombing of civilian targets .
ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.
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Russian markets are in a state of meltdown. Bank of Russia raising its key interest rate to 20% from 9.5%. Russian stock market delayed opening until 3 PM local. Ruble at all time lows. This has caused bank runs to begin as Russians rush to pull money out of their accounts before banks freeze them.
Bank of China’s Singapore operation has stopped financing deals involving Russian oil and Russian companies, amid concerns of western sanctions following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Reuters
South Korea will tighten export controls against Russia by banning shipments of strategic items and join Western countries’ moves to block some Russian banks from the SWIFT international payments system, Seoul’s foreign ministry said on Monday.
No fly sanctions against Russian aircraft - civilian and military have encircled a significant portion of Russia. Russia retaliated by banning foreign airlines from Russia.
The websites belonging to the Russian propaganda news media TASS, Izvestia, Fontaka, RBC and Kommersant are hacked by Anonymous.
Over the weekend, several Russian language media outlets discussed the possibility of an insurgency kicking off in Ukraine after the Ukrainian military defense collapses. Some statements saying that the Afghanistation of Ukraine - a reference to Russia’s debacle in that country.
In response to additional sanctions levied by other countries yesterday for Russia’s unnecessary increase in nuclear alert status, Putin additionally ordered Russian submarine & airborne nuclear forces on combat alert. These are not deterrent forces & is a dangerous escalation.
So far, OSINT and governmental intelligence sources note that no specific movement of Russian strategic forces has yet been observed since Putin ordered the increase in their readiness level.
As of yesterday, Russia has reportedly committed an estimated additional 10-15% of staged troops, bringing the total to roughly 60-70%, or 105,000 – 120,000 troops. Putin seems to be calling in more chips in an effort to get more combat forces into Ukraine. In addition to Belarus and Chechen forces, word is that about 400 mercenaries of the private military company Wagner Group have been thrown into Kyiv battle. RUMINT is the Wagner Group mercenaries goal is to assassinate Ukraine government officials. Putin may be looking at Libya as other potential source of forces Russia tries to get to the battle.
Russia has been expending tactical missiles at a rate of about 100 / day. Some analysts indicate that Russia may run out in the next few days at the rate.
OBSERVATIONS - Numerous analysts continue to express a level of astonishment at the poor planning and execution of this attack by the Russian military. Everything from Russian committing forces in peace meal, pealing apart of the BTG’s, no supporting attacks, lack luster air domination and logistics failures. Most of Russia’s tank, mechanized, and heavy armor movements in Ukraine have been on major roads and not off-road, setting themselves up for classical armor ambushes.
I’ve noted these would be issues before the conflict began. The Russian military has not tried to maneuver a force this size since WW2. Army is full of poorly trained conscripts and no NCO core to back up the officer corps. Logistics nightmare of trying to supply a large force extended over a very wide front and via difficult terrain.
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Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST - Temperatures forecast thru March 9th show temperatures in the mid 30’s with rain/snow.
This forecast indicates that soil conditions are shifting from frozen much softer. New moon on March 2d.
I’VE SEEN IT ALL - Ukrainian farmer apparently capturing an abandoned Russian 9K33 OSA surface-to-air missile system by simply hooking it up to his tractor and driving away with it.
24 HOUR ROUND UP
Ukrainian President Zelensky signs application for EU membership
Relatively quiet overnight however some Russian tactics appear to have changed.
Negotiations between Ukraine and Russia ended — they lasted almost 3 hours, Pravda Ukraine reports. No initial breakthroughs.
Advisor to President Zelensky says that Ukraine at talks in Homiel insist on withdrawing of Russian troops from all internationally recognized Ukrainian lands, including whole Donetsk and Luhansk regions and Crimea
Kyiv front - A large force of Russian armor appears to be stalled 30 KM north of the city. Ukraine defenders reinforcing positions for resumptions of attacks.
Northern Front (Chernihv region ) - Advances still stalled out by Ukraine resistance and currently unable to provide a supporting attack on Kyiv.
North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy - Khariv salient) - Very little significant movement of armor units that bypassed cities in an effort to pressure Kyiv, probably evidence of inability to get refueled / re armed. Reports coming in of indiscriminate artillery and bombing attacks on Kharkiv that appear to be targeting residential areas. Reports of cluster munitions being used in residential areas of Kharkiv as well. Some observers noting the pattern following what Russia has done in Syria. Kharkiv has come under some of the most intense artillery fire of any locations.
Eastern Front - Separatist/Russian forces managed a breakout on the northern portion of the dombass separatist area toward Lysychansk. On the south end, forces have been pressing Mariupol reinforced by an amphibious assault.
Crimea Front - Gains noted northeastward towards Mariupol following amphibious operations. Efforts continue towards Odessa.
The Turkish TB2 drones are marking up a fairly impressive record against Russian targets. This drone has been the bane of Russian and russian supported forces in Libya, Syria and Armenia. Those were low to mid intensity conflicts, this is its first try in a high intensity environment. They seem to love to take out Russian ADA systems.
Pause in the intensity of fighting is providing an opportunity for European nations to attempt to resupply Ukraine with anti armor and anti aircraft weapons. One of the biggest stirs is that with funding from Brussels, Eastern European nations (Poland, Hungary, etc) will be suppling Ukraine with more SU-27 fighters. The big discussion was pilots. One source stated that Ukraine pilots were already transported there while other reports of European ‘volunteers’ piloting them under the flag of a ‘Ukraine Foreign Legion’ and the planes being staged out of Poland. This could be an interesting twist.
Current map of depicting Russian advance into Ukraine produced by wikipedia found here -
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4f/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine.svg
OUTLOOK -
It is unlikely that there will be any break through in negotiations in Belarus. Russia sent a social advisor to Putin - not a very serious selection to represent Russia.
The current lull in Russian operations - most likely an attempt to refuel and resupply - may be the calm before the next storm. Ukraine is not relaxing, but continuing to reinforce their defenses.
Russia will continue to pressure Ukraine in the south as attempts to establish a ‘land bridge’ with the separatist Domabas region. It is uncertain how long the general lull in Russian attacks on the other sectors will last. The switch to widerspread artillery / air bombing on civilian residential areas will likely intensify - an effort to demoralize the citizenry that has so far had a backbone of steel in resisting Russian forces. Some think Putin may go as far as to attempt to bomb Ukraine back into the stone age.
With arms and munitions starting to pour into Ukraine - most significantly access to replacement aircraft the question is how efficiently and effectively can they get them from the western Ukraine to the east where the fighting is going on. Supply convoys would be susceptible to Russia air interdiction. I expect that Russia will have to work hard to close off resupply routes to Kyiv, forcing a diversion of forces currently committed to seizing the capitol.
Concerns of a Belarusian attack into western Ukraine to disrupt resupply attempts from the west. Also potential of increased airstrikes by Russian bombers in the west to disrupt resupply as well.
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Belarus -
US State Department has suspended operations at the US embassy in Belarus, authorized departure of non emergency employees and family members from the embassy in Moscow.
Belarus now being included in international sanctions.
Belarusians voted Monday to allow the country to host nuclear weapons and Russian forces permanently, results showed, part of a package of constitutional reforms that also extended the rule of leader Alexander Lukashenko.
Russia used Iskander missile systems to attack Zhytomyr Airport. The air strikes were conducted from Belarus, using Russian ballistic missile launchers. Earlier, Belarus said it wouldn’t allow air strikes from its territory amid Ukraine’s upcoming peace talks with Russia.
As a result of its open, military support of Russia’s invasion , Belarus is coming under international sanctions.
Video from the western part of the Belarusian-Ukrainian border shows a convoy of 38th Air Assault Brigade of the Belarusian army (not Russian) near Kobryn in Brest region. Most of the vehicles are marked with red squares.
OBSERVATION - There has been rumors/discussion that in addition to supplying forces for the battle of Kyiv, Belarus may launch an attack in the western half of Ukraine to interdict/interrupt resupply of the country from western nations.
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Europe / NATO General -
Switzerland - historically neutral - has announced it is joining EU sanctions against Russia.
Russian ships have been banned from docking in British ports.
French President Macron spoke to Russian President Putin, urging an immediate ceasefire in Ukraine, according to French presidency (Reuters)
The EU has asked its satellite centre in Madrid to provide intelligence to Ukraine about Russian troop movements, the EU’s head diplomat said. “Relations with Russia will no longer be determined by trade,” he said.
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Libya -
Meanwhile in Cyrenaica Libya , the Libyan army LNA is massing and heading west as large convoys of tanks and armored vehicles departing from Benghazi.
OBSERVATION - The LNA has been heavily supported by Russia and Ive not seen any internal issues that would generate such a movement of forces. This could be a possible attempt by Putin to get more combat forces for his Ukraine war. Problem is it would take major airlift operations to get the forces to the theatre. Sea lift is dubious due to restrictions by Turkey at the Bosporus.
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REMINDER - My Ping list got corrupted overnight and having to rebuild from one from 2019. Pass the word to your friends to contact me to be reestablished on the Ping list.
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TRUCKER PROTESTS
US convoy -
- Illinois State Police threaten legal consequences for convoy participants “Those who choose to participate in events that intentionally endanger the public and violate Illinois law will be subject” to legal action, officials say.
- Six other convoys are expected to merge with the main convoy when it reaches the Indianapolis area
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Wuhan virus -
In the shadow of the Ukraine conflict, mask and other mandates continue to be lifted across the country and the world.
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Economy -
The U.S. trade deficit in goods widened sharply to a record high in January amid an increase in imports as businesses attempt to replenish depleted inventories.
Goldman Sachs lowered their gross domestic product growth estimate for the first quarter by 0.5 percentage point to a 1.5% annualized rate.
Impacts from sanctions on Russia continue to be assessed. The intertwinement of the global economy will definitely see repercussions to extend outside of Russia.
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Biden watch -
Biden is slated to give his first State of the Union address tonight. Political pundits not having high expectations and largely expect him to face plant.
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Strategic Activity / Deployments -
The 405th Army Field Support Brigade fully activated its Army Prepositioned Stock-2 sites for the first time in the brigade’s APS-2 program history. “now the brigade is tasked with outfitting an entire armored brigade combat team being deployed to Europe from the United States”
NOTE - This is based on the Reforger principle of the Cold War Era of prepositioned equipment in Europe.
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Cyber Warfare -
Denial of service attacks are hitting several OSINT websites.
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China -
China’s foreign minister calls Ukraine counterpart, says ‘deeply regrets’ Russia conflict.
OBSERVATION - Playing both sides now.
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Russia -
WAR WATCH - The Battle for Kyiv continues - Kyiv still stands after 6 days. This situation is rapidly developing and remains fluid.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Putin desperation is being manifested in more brutal indiscriminate artillery/bombing of civilian targets . Some Russian forces, particularly in the southern area of Ukraine, appear to be getting their act together, but are still facing vicious defense measures.
ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.
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Russian markets are in a state of meltdown. The bank of Russia announced it will not resume stock trading on March 1st on the Moscow exchange. Russian stock market is closed until at least March 5. Banks running out of money for withdrawals.
Putin banned residents from sending money to bank accounts abroad and blocked payments on external debt, aggressive controls on capital flow made in response to punishing Western sanctions.
The Kremlin-issued decree said that foreign-exchange payments under loan agreements to non-residents of Russia were prohibited from March 1. It said that payments to banks and other financial-market organizations outside of Russia and money transfers through foreign payment service providers would be barred.
Canadian Prime Minster Justin Trudeau just announced that beginning today Canada will refuse all Russian Oil Imports into the country effectively banning Russian Oil from Canada, they are the first country to do so
Numerous private sector companies stopping sales/deliveries to Russia, from movie distribution, to computer chips. Oil companies separating themselves from Russia owned oil companies. U.S. payment card firms Visa Inc. and Mastercard Inc. have blocked multiple Russian financial institutions from their network, complying with government sanctions imposed over Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. These are just the tip of the iceberg of individual corporate boycotts/sanctions.
Russia’s foreign ministry said those supplying lethal weapons to Ukraine would bear responsibility if they are used during Moscow’s ongoing invasion. Threat appears linked to nuclear threat response.
Russian’s indiscriminate artillery/bombing of civilians has gotten further attention. International Criminal Court prosecutor Karim Khan to open probe into possible war crimes or crimes against humanity in Ukraine.
Russia’s Lavrov says there is a danger of Ukraine acquiring nuclear weapons (Reuters).
OBSERVATION - This has sent concerns rippling through the OSINT and inter webs that Russia is trying to lay the groundwork for a nuclear event on Ukrainian soil, but such an act would be completely irrational. Many have been observing irrational behavior by Putin including raising Russia’s nuclear readiness status, as the invasion come unravelled. Combined with increasing threats to the west for material support to Ukraine made by the foreign ministry concerns are entering the realm of possible actions.
Russia appears that it is in the process of withdrawing ALL diplomatic personnel from various countries. Apparently starting with Canada,
US kicked out 12 Russian UN staffers. A spokeswoman for the US mission to the UN said those ordered to leave had “abused their privileges of residency in the United States by engaging in espionage activities that are adverse to our national security”.
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Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST - Temperatures forecast thru March 9th show temperatures in the mid 30’s with rain/snow.
This forecast indicates that soil conditions are shifting from frozen much softer. New moon on March 2d.
RUMORS - The Ukrainian soldiers defending Snake Island who had reportedly been killed after telling a Russian warship to “go f*** yourself” might still be alive. Allegedly being held in custody in a Crimea detention center.
24 HOUR ROUND UP
Some Russian units now using a more combined arms approach. However, armor units appear to remain road bound, apparently avoiding cross country travel/maneuvering. This may be due to the rains and thawing soils have made muddy maneuvering that the units don’t want to deal with.
Russian artillery hitting densely populated urban areas harder than in the past and apparently more deliberately. Antipersonnel cluster munitions confirmed to have been used. Ukraine’s ambassador to U.S. says Russia used a vacuum bomb (thermobaric) on Monday (yet to be confirmed).
Negotiations between Ukraine and Russia set to resume in a few days.
Kyiv front - A large force of Russian armor remains stalled about 30 KM north of the city. Reports suggest that the column ranges 17-40 miles in length. Photos also show that vehicles are parked 2 - 4 vehicles wide. If Ukraine had a stronger ground attack aircraft capability this would be a turkey shoot. Unknown to the reason for the stop though some information points to counted ambushes of the lead elements and resulting blocking of the road.
Northern Front (Chernihv region ) - Essentially no progress from yesterday. Critical supporting attack on Kyiv’s northeast is still stopped. In Chernihiv, unarmed Ukrainian civilians blocked a Russian convoy.
North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy - Khariv salient) - Advance is still at largely a standstill. Two road bound pushes towards Kyiv haven’t made it any further. Kharkiv has faced another night of massive artillery assault. More evidence of indiscriminate Russian bombing, a Kalibr Cruse missile struck central Kharkiv (Freedom Square) this morning, inflicting civilian casualties. Another struck the opera house. Other parts of town saw anti-personnel cluster bombs fired by MLRS units strike residential apartment areas.
Eastern Front - Separatist/Russian forces are pressuring Mariupo and attempting to surround the town. Power and water is out in the town. Fighting has been intense but this is one case where I think the Ukrainian defense is beginning to falter, especially if they are able to link up with forces coming from Crimea.
Crimea Front - By far the most successful front for Russia overnight. Intense fighting in Kherson as Russian forces attempt to seize bridges over the Dnieper River in their drive towards Odessa. Attacks included more artillery attacks on residential areas of the city. Assault being lead by VDV airborne forces. Concerns that Russian forces are also trying to flank defenders. Forces are also pushing hard to the northeast to link upon with separatists now essentially surrounding Mariupol. Also are pushing north to seize Dnieper river crossings at Zaporizhzhia.
BREAKING UNCONFIRMED - Russian troops out of Crimea have linked up with forces moving from Donetsk, defence ministry says. That means Mariupol is now fully encircled
The Ukrainians managed to hit Taganrog airbase inside of Russia, probably with a Tochka SRBM.
RUMORS - Ukrainian pilots have arrived in Poland to begin taking control of fighter planes donated by European countries, a Ukrainian government official told POLITICO. Much conflicting discussion about the availability of the aircraft as well as who is going to pilot them.
Video released by Ukraine show footage of a TB2 drone strike on a train carrying fuel for the Russian attack. This was a very deep strike if confirmed.
NATO flying CAP missions along the border with Ukraine. Increased calls from Ukraine and some other nations for at least a partial no fly zone over Ukraine (most likely the western half).
Tens of thousands ‘foreign’ fighters are flocking to Ukraine to fight the Russians. Meanwhile, Russia’s air force still hasn’t really been able to declare control of the airspace and has been largely absent in ground support operations.
Current map of depicting Russian advance into Ukraine produced by wikipedia found here -
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4f/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine.svg
OUTLOOK -
I expect even more intense, indiscriminate bombing of civilian targets/residential area. Russia reverted to this in Syria, Afghanistan and other areas, leveling cities block by block.
Use of thermobaric munitions have already occurred via MLRS “flamethrower’ systems. What I think the concern is these MLRS units targeting residential areas and not military targets. Perhaps a bigger concern, linked to the Russia (tactical) nuclear threat is the use of MOAB/FOAB mega thermobaric bombs - Equivalent in many ways to tactical Nuclear weapons. US dropped a MOAB on the taliban a few years back, created a crater something like 300 feet across. If dropped on civilian targets it would constitute a warcrime of immense magnitude. But the use may be just below a threshold that would cause US/NATO to more directly enter the fight.
AFA Russia use of nukes - if Putin’s mental state is what some of the concerns I’ve read about from numerous observers, it is a real danger if he feels he’s been cornered. The only hope then would be that his military leadership pop the relief valve and refuse the order. However, at this stage , besides trying to lay down the ‘ground work’ to justify use, such use does not appear to be imminent .
AFA the big show and the mega convoy towards kyiv - IDK, this ‘convoy’ has been pretty stationary for the better part of two days now. If photos are correct and current, it will be a gaggle trying to get this mess rolling again. Russian are essentially road locked, losing their maneuverability and sitting ducks for choice ambushes to keep things constipated up. I suspect that Ukraine TB2 drones are having a feast on this convoy as well.
I see conditions for the defenders in Kherson and Mariupol deteriorating and possibly falling to Russian forces within the next 24-48 hours. Increasing attacks on Odessa as well. If he breaking on Mariupol is accurate, situation there has gone down hill quickly.
Expect heavy to even heavier bombardments of Kharkiv as Russia tries to subdue the second largest city in Ukraine.
Russians, though improving, will continue to have their logistics “tails” slashed and cut by Ukraine forces. No fuel, no armor advances.
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Belarus -
Seriously wounded Russian soldiers are hauled to Mozyr, Belarus from Ukraine. The local hospital are reportedly completely overwhelmed by casualties missing eyes and intestines hanging on the outside. Blood collection points set up in the city to cope with demand.
Resistance to Russian operations in Ukraine via Belarus by civilians appears to be growing. Unconfirmed reports that Belarusians are preventing Russian troops and vehicles from moving inside Belarus. Bypol reported Belarusians started to disrupt the operation of railways that carry Russian tanks and cars to the Belarus-Ukraine.
Belarus military units allegedly reported to be positioning themselves for some kind of involvement in the Kyiv assault are silent. No evidence of deployment into Ukraine as of yet.
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Poland -
Increasingly becoming the staging area for supplies being shipped into Ukraine as well as the primary host to fleeing Ukrainans.
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Europe / NATO General -
Finnish lawmakers will discuss potential NATO membership - this is moving quickly.
Norway says it plans to send 2,000 M72 anti-tank weapons to Ukraine, joining Finland and Sweden in sending lethal weapons
In a televised address to the EU council, Zelensky received a standing ovation from attendees.
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Iran -
Iran trying to take advantage of the Ukrainian turmoil. Iran on Monday described attempts to return to the 2015 nuclear deal as succeeding only if the United States agreed to Tehran’s remaining demands. According to Reuters, Iran’s foreign ministry outlined the remaining hurdles to an agreement as including the degree to which sanctions would be removed, safeguards that the U.S. would not leave the deal again, and the unresolved issue of traces of uranium found at undeclared sites in Iran. An Iranian diplomat described the current talks, which have been ongoing for 10 months, at a “now or never” impasse. “If they cannot reach a deal this week, the talks will collapse forever.”
A source told Reuters that Iran’s “stance… has become even more uncompromising. They now insist on removal of sanctions on the IRGC and want to open issues that had already been agreed.”
OBSERVATION - iran is fully in control and exploiting the Ukraine war. Threat increasing that Israel will be forced to act independently to shut down Irans nuclear weapon program.
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Syria -
Significant, continued absence of Russian combat air patrols over Idlib.
OBSERVATIONS - Resources likely being diverted the Ukraine conflict. I’ve noted the significant decrease in Russian activity in Syria as far back as the build up state of the Russian army preparation for attack.
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Turkey -
Turkey’s Foreign Minister, Mevlut Cavusoglu, revealed that all countries have been warned not to transit warships through the straits. The decision which was made during a Turkish cabinet meeting today closes the Dardanelles and Bosphorus straits to all military vessels..
OBSERVATION - initial declaration prohibited ships who’s home port was not in the Black Sea region. Now ALL warships blocked. No Russian reinforcements from the Med.
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