Replies

REMINDER - My Ping list got corrupted overnight and having to rebuild from one from 2019. Pass the word to your friends to contact me to be reestablished on the Ping list.
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TRUCKER PROTESTS

US convoy -
- Illinois State Police threaten legal consequences for convoy participants “Those who choose to participate in events that intentionally endanger the public and violate Illinois law will be subject” to legal action, officials say.
- Six other convoys are expected to merge with the main convoy when it reaches the Indianapolis area
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Wuhan virus -

In the shadow of the Ukraine conflict, mask and other mandates continue to be lifted across the country and the world.
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Economy -

The U.S. trade deficit in goods widened sharply to a record high in January amid an increase in imports as businesses attempt to replenish depleted inventories.

Goldman Sachs lowered their gross domestic product growth estimate for the first quarter by 0.5 percentage point to a 1.5% annualized rate.

Impacts from sanctions on Russia continue to be assessed. The intertwinement of the global economy will definitely see repercussions to extend outside of Russia.
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Biden watch -

Biden is slated to give his first State of the Union address tonight. Political pundits not having high expectations and largely expect him to face plant.
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Strategic Activity / Deployments -

The 405th Army Field Support Brigade fully activated its Army Prepositioned Stock-2 sites for the first time in the brigade’s APS-2 program history. “now the brigade is tasked with outfitting an entire armored brigade combat team being deployed to Europe from the United States”
NOTE - This is based on the Reforger principle of the Cold War Era of prepositioned equipment in Europe.

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Cyber Warfare -

Denial of service attacks are hitting several OSINT websites.

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China -

China’s foreign minister calls Ukraine counterpart, says ‘deeply regrets’ Russia conflict.
OBSERVATION - Playing both sides now.
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Russia -

WAR WATCH - The Battle for Kyiv continues - Kyiv still stands after 6 days. This situation is rapidly developing and remains fluid.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Putin desperation is being manifested in more brutal indiscriminate artillery/bombing of civilian targets . Some Russian forces, particularly in the southern area of Ukraine, appear to be getting their act together, but are still facing vicious defense measures.
ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

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Russian markets are in a state of meltdown. The bank of Russia announced it will not resume stock trading on March 1st on the Moscow exchange. Russian stock market is closed until at least March 5. Banks running out of money for withdrawals.
Putin banned residents from sending money to bank accounts abroad and blocked payments on external debt, aggressive controls on capital flow made in response to punishing Western sanctions.
The Kremlin-issued decree said that foreign-exchange payments under loan agreements to non-residents of Russia were prohibited from March 1. It said that payments to banks and other financial-market organizations outside of Russia and money transfers through foreign payment service providers would be barred.

Canadian Prime Minster Justin Trudeau just announced that beginning today Canada will refuse all Russian Oil Imports into the country effectively banning Russian Oil from Canada, they are the first country to do so

Numerous private sector companies stopping sales/deliveries to Russia, from movie distribution, to computer chips. Oil companies separating themselves from Russia owned oil companies. U.S. payment card firms Visa Inc. and Mastercard Inc. have blocked multiple Russian financial institutions from their network, complying with government sanctions imposed over Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. These are just the tip of the iceberg of individual corporate boycotts/sanctions.

Russia’s foreign ministry said those supplying lethal weapons to Ukraine would bear responsibility if they are used during Moscow’s ongoing invasion. Threat appears linked to nuclear threat response.

Russian’s indiscriminate artillery/bombing of civilians has gotten further attention. International Criminal Court prosecutor Karim Khan to open probe into possible war crimes or crimes against humanity in Ukraine.

Russia’s Lavrov says there is a danger of Ukraine acquiring nuclear weapons (Reuters).

OBSERVATION - This has sent concerns rippling through the OSINT and inter webs that Russia is trying to lay the groundwork for a nuclear event on Ukrainian soil, but such an act would be completely irrational. Many have been observing irrational behavior by Putin including raising Russia’s nuclear readiness status, as the invasion come unravelled. Combined with increasing threats to the west for material support to Ukraine made by the foreign ministry concerns are entering the realm of possible actions.

Russia appears that it is in the process of withdrawing ALL diplomatic personnel from various countries. Apparently starting with Canada,

US kicked out 12 Russian UN staffers. A spokeswoman for the US mission to the UN said those ordered to leave had “abused their privileges of residency in the United States by engaging in espionage activities that are adverse to our national security”.

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Ukraine -

RUMORS - The Ukrainian soldiers defending Snake Island who had reportedly been killed after telling a Russian warship to “go f*** yourself” might still be alive. Allegedly being held in custody in a Crimea detention center.

24 HOUR ROUND UP

Some Russian units now using a more combined arms approach. However, armor units appear to remain road bound, apparently avoiding cross country travel/maneuvering. This may be due to the rains and thawing soils have made muddy maneuvering that the units don’t want to deal with.
Russian artillery hitting densely populated urban areas harder than in the past and apparently more deliberately. Antipersonnel cluster munitions confirmed to have been used. Ukraine’s ambassador to U.S. says Russia used a vacuum bomb (thermobaric) on Monday (yet to be confirmed).

Negotiations between Ukraine and Russia set to resume in a few days.

Kyiv front - A large force of Russian armor remains stalled about 30 KM north of the city. Reports suggest that the column ranges 17-40 miles in length. Photos also show that vehicles are parked 2 - 4 vehicles wide. If Ukraine had a stronger ground attack aircraft capability this would be a turkey shoot. Unknown to the reason for the stop though some information points to counted ambushes of the lead elements and resulting blocking of the road.

Northern Front (Chernihv region ) - Essentially no progress from yesterday. Critical supporting attack on Kyiv’s northeast is still stopped. In Chernihiv, unarmed Ukrainian civilians blocked a Russian convoy.
North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy - Khariv salient) - Advance is still at largely a standstill. Two road bound pushes towards Kyiv haven’t made it any further. Kharkiv has faced another night of massive artillery assault. More evidence of indiscriminate Russian bombing, a Kalibr Cruse missile struck central Kharkiv (Freedom Square) this morning, inflicting civilian casualties. Another struck the opera house. Other parts of town saw anti-personnel cluster bombs fired by MLRS units strike residential apartment areas.

Eastern Front - Separatist/Russian forces are pressuring Mariupo and attempting to surround the town. Power and water is out in the town. Fighting has been intense but this is one case where I think the Ukrainian defense is beginning to falter, especially if they are able to link up with forces coming from Crimea.

Crimea Front - By far the most successful front for Russia overnight. Intense fighting in Kherson as Russian forces attempt to seize bridges over the Dnieper River in their drive towards Odessa. Attacks included more artillery attacks on residential areas of the city. Assault being lead by VDV airborne forces. Concerns that Russian forces are also trying to flank defenders. Forces are also pushing hard to the northeast to link upon with separatists now essentially surrounding Mariupol. Also are pushing north to seize Dnieper river crossings at Zaporizhzhia.

BREAKING UNCONFIRMED - Russian troops out of Crimea have linked up with forces moving from Donetsk, defence ministry says. That means Mariupol is now fully encircled

The Ukrainians managed to hit Taganrog airbase inside of Russia, probably with a Tochka SRBM.

RUMORS - Ukrainian pilots have arrived in Poland to begin taking control of fighter planes donated by European countries, a Ukrainian government official told POLITICO. Much conflicting discussion about the availability of the aircraft as well as who is going to pilot them.

Video released by Ukraine show footage of a TB2 drone strike on a train carrying fuel for the Russian attack. This was a very deep strike if confirmed.

NATO flying CAP missions along the border with Ukraine. Increased calls from Ukraine and some other nations for at least a partial no fly zone over Ukraine (most likely the western half).

Tens of thousands ‘foreign’ fighters are flocking to Ukraine to fight the Russians. Meanwhile, Russia’s air force still hasn’t really been able to declare control of the airspace and has been largely absent in ground support operations.

Current map of depicting Russian advance into Ukraine produced by wikipedia found here -
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4f/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine.svg

OUTLOOK -

I expect even more intense, indiscriminate bombing of civilian targets/residential area. Russia reverted to this in Syria, Afghanistan and other areas, leveling cities block by block.

Use of thermobaric munitions have already occurred via MLRS “flamethrower’ systems. What I think the concern is these MLRS units targeting residential areas and not military targets. Perhaps a bigger concern, linked to the Russia (tactical) nuclear threat is the use of MOAB/FOAB mega thermobaric bombs - Equivalent in many ways to tactical Nuclear weapons. US dropped a MOAB on the taliban a few years back, created a crater something like 300 feet across. If dropped on civilian targets it would constitute a warcrime of immense magnitude. But the use may be just below a threshold that would cause US/NATO to more directly enter the fight.

AFA Russia use of nukes - if Putin’s mental state is what some of the concerns I’ve read about from numerous observers, it is a real danger if he feels he’s been cornered. The only hope then would be that his military leadership pop the relief valve and refuse the order. However, at this stage , besides trying to lay down the ‘ground work’ to justify use, such use does not appear to be imminent .

AFA the big show and the mega convoy towards kyiv - IDK, this ‘convoy’ has been pretty stationary for the better part of two days now. If photos are correct and current, it will be a gaggle trying to get this mess rolling again. Russian are essentially road locked, losing their maneuverability and sitting ducks for choice ambushes to keep things constipated up. I suspect that Ukraine TB2 drones are having a feast on this convoy as well.

I see conditions for the defenders in Kherson and Mariupol deteriorating and possibly falling to Russian forces within the next 24-48 hours. Increasing attacks on Odessa as well. If he breaking on Mariupol is accurate, situation there has gone down hill quickly.

Expect heavy to even heavier bombardments of Kharkiv as Russia tries to subdue the second largest city in Ukraine.

Russians, though improving, will continue to have their logistics “tails” slashed and cut by Ukraine forces. No fuel, no armor advances.
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Belarus -

Seriously wounded Russian soldiers are hauled to Mozyr, Belarus from Ukraine. The local hospital are reportedly completely overwhelmed by casualties missing eyes and intestines hanging on the outside. Blood collection points set up in the city to cope with demand.

Resistance to Russian operations in Ukraine via Belarus by civilians appears to be growing. Unconfirmed reports that Belarusians are preventing Russian troops and vehicles from moving inside Belarus. Bypol reported Belarusians started to disrupt the operation of railways that carry Russian tanks and cars to the Belarus-Ukraine.

Belarus military units allegedly reported to be positioning themselves for some kind of involvement in the Kyiv assault are silent. No evidence of deployment into Ukraine as of yet.
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Poland -

Increasingly becoming the staging area for supplies being shipped into Ukraine as well as the primary host to fleeing Ukrainans.
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Europe / NATO General -

Finnish lawmakers will discuss potential NATO membership - this is moving quickly.

Norway says it plans to send 2,000 M72 anti-tank weapons to Ukraine, joining Finland and Sweden in sending lethal weapons

In a televised address to the EU council, Zelensky received a standing ovation from attendees.

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Iran -

Iran trying to take advantage of the Ukrainian turmoil. Iran on Monday described attempts to return to the 2015 nuclear deal as succeeding only if the United States agreed to Tehran’s remaining demands. According to Reuters, Iran’s foreign ministry outlined the remaining hurdles to an agreement as including the degree to which sanctions would be removed, safeguards that the U.S. would not leave the deal again, and the unresolved issue of traces of uranium found at undeclared sites in Iran. An Iranian diplomat described the current talks, which have been ongoing for 10 months, at a “now or never” impasse. “If they cannot reach a deal this week, the talks will collapse forever.”
A source told Reuters that Iran’s “stance… has become even more uncompromising. They now insist on removal of sanctions on the IRGC and want to open issues that had already been agreed.”

OBSERVATION - iran is fully in control and exploiting the Ukraine war. Threat increasing that Israel will be forced to act independently to shut down Irans nuclear weapon program.
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Syria -

Significant, continued absence of Russian combat air patrols over Idlib.
OBSERVATIONS - Resources likely being diverted the Ukraine conflict. I’ve noted the significant decrease in Russian activity in Syria as far back as the build up state of the Russian army preparation for attack.
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Turkey -

Turkey’s Foreign Minister, Mevlut Cavusoglu, revealed that all countries have been warned not to transit warships through the straits. The decision which was made during a Turkish cabinet meeting today closes the Dardanelles and Bosphorus straits to all military vessels..
OBSERVATION - initial declaration prohibited ships who’s home port was not in the Black Sea region. Now ALL warships blocked. No Russian reinforcements from the Med.

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REMINDER - My Ping list got corrupted overnight and having to rebuild from one from 2019. Pass the word to your friends to contact me to be reestablished on the Ping list.

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TRUCKER PROTESTS

Canada -
The Canadian Constitution Foundation is taking Justin Trudeau to court over his use of the Emergency Act during Ottawa protests. The CCF claims that the invocation of the act was illegal and an overreach of government power.

New Zealand protest. -
- NZ police have attacked the protest camp to break it up

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Wuhan virus -

The coronavirus vaccine made by Pfizer-BioNTech is much less effective in preventing infection in children ages 5 to 11 years than in older adolescents or adults, according to a large new set of data collected by health officials in New York State. It still prevents severe illness in the children, but offers virtually no protection against infection, even within a month after full immunization, the data, which were collected during the Omicron surge, suggest.

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Economy -

Strategic oil reserve release in progress - but will do next to nothing.
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Biden watch -

The SOTU slurrfest is now painfully behind us. Among many absurd statements, -
- “Ban assault weapons and high-capacity magazines that hold up to 100 rounds. You think the deer are wearing Kevlar vests?” he said.
- Biden said buying American products is a priority for his administration but has conveniently avoided reinstating U.S. energy independence .
- Biden called for lower insulin prices amid what he said is a drug price crisis. What the president didn’t acknowledge, however, is that he undid a rule enacted by Trump that effectively lowered insulin and epinephrine prices for Americans.
- Biden referred to Ukrainians as the “Iranian people” in a gaffe that quickly drew mockery on social media.

The end of Biden’s speech was e cryptic, and the last three words have people guessing: “Go get him!”

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Strategic Activity / Deployments -

The Pentagon is considering whether to add U.S. troops in Eastern European NATO-member countries on a long-term basis in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, according to a senior Pentagon official.
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China -

Speculation that China may take advantage of the Ukraine war to strike at Taiwan. However, no intel indicators of any pending actions.
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Russia -

WAR WATCH - The Battle for Kyiv continues - Kyiv still stands after 7 days. This situation is rapidly developing and remains fluid.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Putin desperation is being manifested in more brutal indiscriminate artillery/bombing of civilian targets . Some Russian forces, particularly in the southern area of Ukraine, appear to be getting their act together, but are still facing vicious defense measures. However, efforts to surround Kyiv are still stalled to progressing slowly.
US intelligence estimates that Russia has committed about 80% of the combat force Putin deployed to invade Ukraine,

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

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Big question marks remain about Putin’s mental and physical condition. In a television interview he looked pale and ‘puffy’. Others who’ve had dealings with him in the past have noted changes as well. With threats of nuclear retaliation, some are concerned he may be unstable enough to order a tactical strike.

Economic hits continue to increase. -
NordStream2 AG the pipeline project company 100% owned by Kremlin-controlled Gazprom has filed for bankruptcy & fired all 106 employees following US sanctions, effectively ending project for good.

Italian oil company Eni intends to withdraw from a gas pipeline linking Russia with Turkey.
ExxonMobil said it would discontinue operations of the Sakhalin-1 project and leave the venture, which involves Russia among other countries, and that it would not invest in new developments in Russia.

Airbus and Boeing suspend support to Russian airlines, effective immediately.

Russia’s largest lender said its European subsidiaries had experienced “abnormal cash outflows” and expressed concern for the safety of its employees and properties. As of late morning trade in London, Sberbank shares were down 94.24% to trade at $0.01. The bank has lost 99.9% of its value since the start of the year.

Russian Central Bank has suspended transfers from the accounts of non-residents abroad.
Bank runs increasing across Russia as the Ruble crashes even lower.

Russia threatened France with real war over economic sanctions against Russia. This raised nuclear concerns.

Shipping giants Maersk, MSC and CMA CGM suspend shipping to Russia.

To be further confirmed. Hacking group ‘NB65’, affiliated with Anonymous has shut down the Control Center of the Russian Space Agency ‘Roscosmos’.

Anti war protests continue throughout Russia. Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny calling for nationwide anti-war protests

biden in the SOTU reiterated that the US will not send troops to fight in Ukraine against Russia.
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Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Temperatures forecast thru March 9th show temperatures in the mid 30’s with rain/snow.
This forecast indicates that soil conditions are shifting from frozen much softer. New moon on March 2d.
NOTE - As I’ve noted prior to the start or war, melting conditions will inhibit maneuvering through muddy fields. The scores of battle photos of Russian vehicles show that even the tracked vehicles are getting stuck in the mud and units are reluctant to go off roads.

RUNINT -
RUMORS - National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine says an assassination attempt on President Zelensky was foiled. Fog of war / propaganda obscuring confirmation. Chechen kill teams were reportedly coming with the mission of killing Zelensky and other govt officials. Rumors Ukraine was tipped off by a disaffected Russian intelligence official enabling the locating and killing of the team. Chechen warlord did announce on video his intent to send forces to Ukraine to fight for Russia. The fact that a decapitation could accelerate the submission of Ukraine is not outrageous, but the circumstances may not fully come out until after the war.

24 HOUR ROUND UP

While absorbing brutal and indiscriminate artillery barrages and air strikes, Ukraine defenses remain stable in the north and east. Most likely lead by airborne forces, Russia has made serious gains in the south, linking with separatist forces near Mariupo and capturing bridges and crossing the Dniper at Kherson. Most of Kherson is apparently under Russian control while Mariupo is surrounded. Fight for Kharkiv is still intensive, but remains in the control of Ukraine forces.

Russian forces increasingly being forced to bypass Ukraine cities, rather than fight through them in their rush to reinforce the siege of Kyiv. However, this leaves their logistic increasingly vulnerable to interdiction by the bypassed Ukraine forces and effectively stalls the attacks.
More and more Russian equipment is being found abandoned, giving Ukrainian forces new equipment to replace that lost in fighting. Some estimates that as much as 10% of Russia’s active top quality T80 tanks have been destroyed or abandoned. Munitions also abandoned and being used by Ukraine forces.

Logistics issues are increasingly apparent in the lack of food for Russian troops, many have gone days without food and are looting civilian stores when they get the opportunity.

Use of off the shelf FM GMRS style radios for Russian comms has been increasingly exported by Ukraine forces to locate supply depots/convoys and disrupt battle comms thru jamming. Intelligence analysts are dumbfounded by their use and much other intel has been collected, including documentation of the poor morale and condition of Russian forces.

Aircraft that were announced to be transferred to Ukraine by eastern European counties now appears to have fallen through. Other military aid is pouring in though. This includes new batch of Bayraktar TB2s - the drones of death to Russian ADA and fuel trucks.

Ukraine still challenging Russia for control of the airspace. Ukraine still has effective S300 ADA systems as well as a ton of shoulder launched MANPADS. Analysts still perplexed that Russia hasn’t exerted its airpower in a more effective manner.

Kyiv front -
A large force of Russian armor remains stalled about 30 KM north of the city. This is the infamous “40 mile long” convoy. Indicators that this force may be planning on pushing past the western suburbs of Kyiv as part of an encirclement of the city.
Indiscriminate bombing continues with a verified video shows devastating damage and partially collapsed apartment buildings northwest of Kyiv.
Airstrikes targeted the iconic TV tower and surrounding buildings, taking many stations off the air. Uncertain if any bombs actually hit the tower, depends on the view angle.

Northern Front (Chernihv region ) -
Sat. images reveal that the Russian army is amassing a large amount of equipment N-W of Kyiv. Belarusian troops are believed to have entered Ukraine near Chernihiv, but this hasn’t been confirmed.
NOTE - Belarusian military is ranked as one of the three worst trained military forces in Europe. Putin must be desperate to throw them into the fight.

North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy - Khariv salient) -
Russian planes dropped bombs all night and all morning on the historical center of Kharkiv and residential areas in the downtown. Airborne/air assault into the city being fought off by defenders. A new military strike in Kharkiv has hit an apartment complex near a hospital, videos that have been geolocated and verified by CNN show. The explosion near the hospital comes hours after a military strike caused significant damage to Kharkiv’s regional administration building.
Russian delegation came to the city of Konotop to negotiate a surrender, effectively said that the city would be destroyed in the fighting otherwise. The Russian leader came in with hand grenades in both hands (presumably with the pins out) - a most unusual negotiation tactic.
Pushes towards Kyiv from Konotop and Sumy bypasses are stalled due to logistic problems.

Eastern Front - Separatist/Russian forces are pressuring Mariupo and apparently have surrounded the town to join up with forces pushing in from Crimea. Power and water is out in the town.

Crimea Front - By far the most successful front for Russia overnight. Intense fighting in Kherson as Russian forces were apparently successful in their attempt to seize bridges over the Dnieper River in their drive towards Odessa.
Russian troops out of Crimea have linked up with forces moving from Donetsk, defence ministry says. That means Mariupol is now fully encircled

Current map of depicting Russian advance into Ukraine produced by wikipedia found here -
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4f/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine.svg

OUTLOOK -

While MSM hypes the impending doom of Kyiv and Ukraine in general from the armor massed on its borders, reality on the ground indicates else wise. U.S. intelligence assesses that morale is sagging among Russian military on the ground in Ukraine. Many units consist of conscripts, some have surrendered without a fight & some are running out of food & gas, according to a senior US defense official. Other reports of deliberate damage like poking holes in fuel tanks to disable vehicles to avoid entering the war. I’ve seen these reports all over and does fit a lot of the evidence to date.

Over the next 24 hours I expect the fight for Mariupol and Khariv to continue to intensify. I further expect to see more indiscriminate attacks on civilian targets and residential areas to break the will of the people. Putin is assessed as having a level of mental instability that could cause even more severe attacks and weapons against civilians.

I’m am concerned about Russian response to resupply of Ukraine from European countries. Russia may seek to interdict those supplies potentially bringing them into conflict with NATO forces.
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Belarus -

The UK has targeted Belarusian army chiefs as part of its first wave of sanctions against Belarus for its role in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Four defense officials and two military enterprises are included in the package.
Foreign Secretary Liz Truss said Belarus leader Alexander Lukashenko had aided and abetted Russia’s invasion.
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Europe / NATO General -

Abundant NATO combat patrols over eastern Europe countries along with tons of intelligence aircraft.

The European Parliament accepted Ukraine’s application to join the European Union. The European Parliament voted “yes” to work towards granting Ukraine the status of an EU member.

Spain to send ‘military hardware’ to ‘Ukraine resistance’.
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Iran -

There is evidence Iran attempted another space launch that failed. There is a big burn mark at the site and the gantry may have been damaged. Possibly another Zuljanah SLV. Estimated time fram is between Feb 24 - 27 Imagery by Maxar
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