Replies

REMINDER - My Ping list got corrupted overnight and having to rebuild from one from 2019. Pass the word to your friends to contact me to be reestablished on the Ping list.

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TRUCKER PROTESTS

Canada -
The Canadian Constitution Foundation is taking Justin Trudeau to court over his use of the Emergency Act during Ottawa protests. The CCF claims that the invocation of the act was illegal and an overreach of government power.

New Zealand protest. -
- NZ police have attacked the protest camp to break it up

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Wuhan virus -

The coronavirus vaccine made by Pfizer-BioNTech is much less effective in preventing infection in children ages 5 to 11 years than in older adolescents or adults, according to a large new set of data collected by health officials in New York State. It still prevents severe illness in the children, but offers virtually no protection against infection, even within a month after full immunization, the data, which were collected during the Omicron surge, suggest.

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Economy -

Strategic oil reserve release in progress - but will do next to nothing.
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Biden watch -

The SOTU slurrfest is now painfully behind us. Among many absurd statements, -
- “Ban assault weapons and high-capacity magazines that hold up to 100 rounds. You think the deer are wearing Kevlar vests?” he said.
- Biden said buying American products is a priority for his administration but has conveniently avoided reinstating U.S. energy independence .
- Biden called for lower insulin prices amid what he said is a drug price crisis. What the president didn’t acknowledge, however, is that he undid a rule enacted by Trump that effectively lowered insulin and epinephrine prices for Americans.
- Biden referred to Ukrainians as the “Iranian people” in a gaffe that quickly drew mockery on social media.

The end of Biden’s speech was e cryptic, and the last three words have people guessing: “Go get him!”

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Strategic Activity / Deployments -

The Pentagon is considering whether to add U.S. troops in Eastern European NATO-member countries on a long-term basis in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, according to a senior Pentagon official.
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China -

Speculation that China may take advantage of the Ukraine war to strike at Taiwan. However, no intel indicators of any pending actions.
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Russia -

WAR WATCH - The Battle for Kyiv continues - Kyiv still stands after 7 days. This situation is rapidly developing and remains fluid.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Putin desperation is being manifested in more brutal indiscriminate artillery/bombing of civilian targets . Some Russian forces, particularly in the southern area of Ukraine, appear to be getting their act together, but are still facing vicious defense measures. However, efforts to surround Kyiv are still stalled to progressing slowly.
US intelligence estimates that Russia has committed about 80% of the combat force Putin deployed to invade Ukraine,

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

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Big question marks remain about Putin’s mental and physical condition. In a television interview he looked pale and ‘puffy’. Others who’ve had dealings with him in the past have noted changes as well. With threats of nuclear retaliation, some are concerned he may be unstable enough to order a tactical strike.

Economic hits continue to increase. -
NordStream2 AG the pipeline project company 100% owned by Kremlin-controlled Gazprom has filed for bankruptcy & fired all 106 employees following US sanctions, effectively ending project for good.

Italian oil company Eni intends to withdraw from a gas pipeline linking Russia with Turkey.
ExxonMobil said it would discontinue operations of the Sakhalin-1 project and leave the venture, which involves Russia among other countries, and that it would not invest in new developments in Russia.

Airbus and Boeing suspend support to Russian airlines, effective immediately.

Russia’s largest lender said its European subsidiaries had experienced “abnormal cash outflows” and expressed concern for the safety of its employees and properties. As of late morning trade in London, Sberbank shares were down 94.24% to trade at $0.01. The bank has lost 99.9% of its value since the start of the year.

Russian Central Bank has suspended transfers from the accounts of non-residents abroad.
Bank runs increasing across Russia as the Ruble crashes even lower.

Russia threatened France with real war over economic sanctions against Russia. This raised nuclear concerns.

Shipping giants Maersk, MSC and CMA CGM suspend shipping to Russia.

To be further confirmed. Hacking group ‘NB65’, affiliated with Anonymous has shut down the Control Center of the Russian Space Agency ‘Roscosmos’.

Anti war protests continue throughout Russia. Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny calling for nationwide anti-war protests

biden in the SOTU reiterated that the US will not send troops to fight in Ukraine against Russia.
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Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Temperatures forecast thru March 9th show temperatures in the mid 30’s with rain/snow.
This forecast indicates that soil conditions are shifting from frozen much softer. New moon on March 2d.
NOTE - As I’ve noted prior to the start or war, melting conditions will inhibit maneuvering through muddy fields. The scores of battle photos of Russian vehicles show that even the tracked vehicles are getting stuck in the mud and units are reluctant to go off roads.

RUNINT -
RUMORS - National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine says an assassination attempt on President Zelensky was foiled. Fog of war / propaganda obscuring confirmation. Chechen kill teams were reportedly coming with the mission of killing Zelensky and other govt officials. Rumors Ukraine was tipped off by a disaffected Russian intelligence official enabling the locating and killing of the team. Chechen warlord did announce on video his intent to send forces to Ukraine to fight for Russia. The fact that a decapitation could accelerate the submission of Ukraine is not outrageous, but the circumstances may not fully come out until after the war.

24 HOUR ROUND UP

While absorbing brutal and indiscriminate artillery barrages and air strikes, Ukraine defenses remain stable in the north and east. Most likely lead by airborne forces, Russia has made serious gains in the south, linking with separatist forces near Mariupo and capturing bridges and crossing the Dniper at Kherson. Most of Kherson is apparently under Russian control while Mariupo is surrounded. Fight for Kharkiv is still intensive, but remains in the control of Ukraine forces.

Russian forces increasingly being forced to bypass Ukraine cities, rather than fight through them in their rush to reinforce the siege of Kyiv. However, this leaves their logistic increasingly vulnerable to interdiction by the bypassed Ukraine forces and effectively stalls the attacks.
More and more Russian equipment is being found abandoned, giving Ukrainian forces new equipment to replace that lost in fighting. Some estimates that as much as 10% of Russia’s active top quality T80 tanks have been destroyed or abandoned. Munitions also abandoned and being used by Ukraine forces.

Logistics issues are increasingly apparent in the lack of food for Russian troops, many have gone days without food and are looting civilian stores when they get the opportunity.

Use of off the shelf FM GMRS style radios for Russian comms has been increasingly exported by Ukraine forces to locate supply depots/convoys and disrupt battle comms thru jamming. Intelligence analysts are dumbfounded by their use and much other intel has been collected, including documentation of the poor morale and condition of Russian forces.

Aircraft that were announced to be transferred to Ukraine by eastern European counties now appears to have fallen through. Other military aid is pouring in though. This includes new batch of Bayraktar TB2s - the drones of death to Russian ADA and fuel trucks.

Ukraine still challenging Russia for control of the airspace. Ukraine still has effective S300 ADA systems as well as a ton of shoulder launched MANPADS. Analysts still perplexed that Russia hasn’t exerted its airpower in a more effective manner.

Kyiv front -
A large force of Russian armor remains stalled about 30 KM north of the city. This is the infamous “40 mile long” convoy. Indicators that this force may be planning on pushing past the western suburbs of Kyiv as part of an encirclement of the city.
Indiscriminate bombing continues with a verified video shows devastating damage and partially collapsed apartment buildings northwest of Kyiv.
Airstrikes targeted the iconic TV tower and surrounding buildings, taking many stations off the air. Uncertain if any bombs actually hit the tower, depends on the view angle.

Northern Front (Chernihv region ) -
Sat. images reveal that the Russian army is amassing a large amount of equipment N-W of Kyiv. Belarusian troops are believed to have entered Ukraine near Chernihiv, but this hasn’t been confirmed.
NOTE - Belarusian military is ranked as one of the three worst trained military forces in Europe. Putin must be desperate to throw them into the fight.

North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy - Khariv salient) -
Russian planes dropped bombs all night and all morning on the historical center of Kharkiv and residential areas in the downtown. Airborne/air assault into the city being fought off by defenders. A new military strike in Kharkiv has hit an apartment complex near a hospital, videos that have been geolocated and verified by CNN show. The explosion near the hospital comes hours after a military strike caused significant damage to Kharkiv’s regional administration building.
Russian delegation came to the city of Konotop to negotiate a surrender, effectively said that the city would be destroyed in the fighting otherwise. The Russian leader came in with hand grenades in both hands (presumably with the pins out) - a most unusual negotiation tactic.
Pushes towards Kyiv from Konotop and Sumy bypasses are stalled due to logistic problems.

Eastern Front - Separatist/Russian forces are pressuring Mariupo and apparently have surrounded the town to join up with forces pushing in from Crimea. Power and water is out in the town.

Crimea Front - By far the most successful front for Russia overnight. Intense fighting in Kherson as Russian forces were apparently successful in their attempt to seize bridges over the Dnieper River in their drive towards Odessa.
Russian troops out of Crimea have linked up with forces moving from Donetsk, defence ministry says. That means Mariupol is now fully encircled

Current map of depicting Russian advance into Ukraine produced by wikipedia found here -
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4f/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine.svg

OUTLOOK -

While MSM hypes the impending doom of Kyiv and Ukraine in general from the armor massed on its borders, reality on the ground indicates else wise. U.S. intelligence assesses that morale is sagging among Russian military on the ground in Ukraine. Many units consist of conscripts, some have surrendered without a fight & some are running out of food & gas, according to a senior US defense official. Other reports of deliberate damage like poking holes in fuel tanks to disable vehicles to avoid entering the war. I’ve seen these reports all over and does fit a lot of the evidence to date.

Over the next 24 hours I expect the fight for Mariupol and Khariv to continue to intensify. I further expect to see more indiscriminate attacks on civilian targets and residential areas to break the will of the people. Putin is assessed as having a level of mental instability that could cause even more severe attacks and weapons against civilians.

I’m am concerned about Russian response to resupply of Ukraine from European countries. Russia may seek to interdict those supplies potentially bringing them into conflict with NATO forces.
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Belarus -

The UK has targeted Belarusian army chiefs as part of its first wave of sanctions against Belarus for its role in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Four defense officials and two military enterprises are included in the package.
Foreign Secretary Liz Truss said Belarus leader Alexander Lukashenko had aided and abetted Russia’s invasion.
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Europe / NATO General -

Abundant NATO combat patrols over eastern Europe countries along with tons of intelligence aircraft.

The European Parliament accepted Ukraine’s application to join the European Union. The European Parliament voted “yes” to work towards granting Ukraine the status of an EU member.

Spain to send ‘military hardware’ to ‘Ukraine resistance’.
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Iran -

There is evidence Iran attempted another space launch that failed. There is a big burn mark at the site and the gantry may have been damaged. Possibly another Zuljanah SLV. Estimated time fram is between Feb 24 - 27 Imagery by Maxar
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Running a little late this morning.

REMINDER - My Ping list got corrupted overnight and having to rebuild from one from 2019. Pass the word to your friends to contact me to be reestablished on the Ping list.
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Wuhan virus -

In a non-peer reviewed report published by Epoch times, newly published CDC data shows a massive increase in COVID-19 infections and hospitalizations since the emergence of the omicron variant among those who have been fully vaccinated.
The data, which is used by local health departments across the nation, indicate the case rate in fully vaccinated people rose by more than 1,000% between Dec. 11, 2021, and Jan. 8, 2022. The COVID case rate of those who received a booster, a third shot, also spiked, by about 2,400% between the same dates. People who haven’t received a vaccine were just 3.2 times more likely to test positive for COVID-19 in January” than boosted adults.
OBSERVATION - There will be a lot of future discussion of this data, but if this interpretation holds true it points to a gross failure of the wuhan jab.

The fully vaccinated account for 9 of every 10 deaths from COVID-19 in England and 4 of 5 deaths among the triple-vaccinated, according to the latest data published by the U.K. Health Security Agency.
OBSERVATION - Like the CDC data above, these interpretations will be under examination as to the data.

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Economy -

Oil prices extended their rally on Thursday, with Brent rising above $116 a barrel, as trade disruption and shipping issues from Russian sanctions over the Ukraine crisis sparked supply worries while U.S. crude stocks fell to multi-year lows.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies including Russia have decided to maintain an increase in output by 400,000 barrels per day in March despite the price surge, ignoring the Ukraine crisis during their talks and snubbing calls from consumers for more crude.

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Strategic Activity / Deployments -

Navy recovered the stealth F-35 from South China Sea that crashed on landing last month.

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Russia -

WAR WATCH - The Battle for Kyiv continues - Kyiv still stands after 8 days. This situation is rapidly developing and remains fluid.

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

RUMINT The Russian Federation Council is set to hold an unscheduled meeting on Friday, leading to widespread speculation in Moscow that the country might impose martial law. (The Guardian)
MIdst reports martial law could be declared & borders closed, more reports of Russian’s trying to flee the country. Uncertain if related, a Russian plane reportedly headed from Moscow to Yerevan (Armenia) was diverted and landed in southern Russia.

Russian missile hit Bangladesh-flagged Bulk Carrier BANGLAR SAMRIDDHI

The Council of Deputies of the Gagarinsky Municipal District in Moscow condemned the military actions on the territory of Ukraine and called on Vladimir Putin to immediately withdraw his troops from there

Four Russian fighter jets violated Swedish airspace over the Baltic Sea, according to the Swedish military. It says 2 Su-24s and 2 Su-27s violated the airspace earlier today. JAS-39 Gripen aircraft were scrambled to intercept.The UN General Assembly has approved a resolution demanding that Russia cease fighting in Ukraine and withdraw all troops.

French President Emmanuel Macron believes “the worst is to come” in Ukraine after a 90-minute phone call with Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin who appears intent on seizing “the whole” of the country, an aide to the French leader said.

US analysts may see the above warning as evidence that Putin is putting in place an “escalate to de-escalate” plan into motion. It has roots in Russia’s planning for a war against the United States, former Defense Intelligence Agency officer Rebekah Koffler said, but similar thinking is now standard throughout Russia’s military planning. During a theoretical war with the U.S., Koffler said, Russia would strike first by “popping a low yield tactical nuke thinking that it’s going to be such a psychological shock that the conflict would end.”
In the context of the Ukraine war, that might mean that Russia would move to flatten cities like Kyiv with traditional weapons as long as Ukrainians continue to resist their invasion, according to Koffler. All of this would be with the purpose of breaking the wills of Ukraine and the West until they capitulate to Russian demands and de-escalate.
OBSERVATION - If Putin is moving down this road, then the worst IS yet to come. He is supposed to address the nation on Friday, have to see what that brings.

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Economic hits continue to increase. -
The World Bank said on Wednesday it had stopped all programs in Russia and Belarus with immediate effect, following the Russian invasion of Ukraine and “hostilities against the people of Ukraine.”

Global hunt for the luxury boats owned by the rich Russian Oligarchs is underway, with Germany bagging the first seizing Russian billionaire Alisher Usmanov’s 512-foot yacht Dilbar, valued at nearly $600 million in Hamberg.

Russian natural-gas giant Gazprom, oil-producer Lukoil and leading bank Sberbank are all penny stocks based on their trading on the London Stock Exchange, as the local market was shut for a third day.
Sberbank SBER, -87.43%, which had assets of over $500 billion at the end of 2021, was trading for 3 cents a share in afternoon action. The European Commission on Wednesday approved the resolution plan for its Croatian and Slovenian arms that will be sold. Its Austrian and Czech operations will be wound down, with depositors compensated up to €100,000.
Lukoil LKOD, -96.03%, Gazprom OGZD, -84.21%, and Rosneft Oil ROSN, -64.03% continued to collapse as the dollar-denominated secondary listings in London remained the one venue where Russia’s top companies could be valued.

Russian oil giant Lukoil calls for halt to Ukraine war

The United States and other Western countries have frozen nearly $1 trillion worth of Russian assets to date.

After yesterday’s note of hacking, the head of Russia’s space agency has stated that Russia will be treating any hacking of its satellites as justification for war, after an alleged hack of their systems was claimed by a ‘non-state’ hacker group on Tuesday according to media reports.

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Ukraine -

MUD - Lets talk about ‘mud’ some more. Found some interesting information on these conditions and historical impacts. They have a name for conditions associated with the spring thaw - Rasputitsa - literally means ‘Time without roads”. - when the spring thaw hits and the countryside turns to goo. Hindered napoleon’ s invasion of Russia in 1812, and Germany’s invasion of Russia in 1941. “The Ukrainian mud in the spring has to be seen to be believed wrote a British journalist during the Russian offensive in 1944. Growing evidence of why Russia forces are reluctant to maneuver across the fields and are remaining road bound.

RUNINT -
Russia’s intelligence agency, the Federal Security Service, has drafted plans for public executions in Ukraine after cities are captured, per a European intelligence official. The agency is also planning violent crowd control and repressive detention of protest organisers in order to break Ukrainian morale
OBSERVATION - This may be a red line that would draw NATO into the fight if this is true and they attempt this. The question is - are these acts beyond the capability of Putin’s Russia? At this stage the answer is yes.

24 HOUR ROUND UP

While absorbing brutal and indiscriminate artillery barrages and air strikes, Ukraine defenses remain stable in the north and east. Most likely lead by airborne forces, Russia continue to make gains in the south, expanding its successes connecting with separatist forces near Mariupo and capturing bridges and crossing the Dniper at Kherson. Kherson is apparently the first major city to fall though there are still pockets of resistance.

U.S. assesses Putin has put in 90 percent of pre-staged combat power in Ukraine, according to a senior U.S. official. That’s up from about 82 percent Wednesday, 80 percent Tuesday, and about 75 percent Monday.
NOTE - Pre-invasion it was estimated that Putin had positioned nearly 75% of Russia’s ground combat forces to the region. Unless he pulls some of the remaining units to the region, he’s running out of troops fast.

Ukraine’s Deputy Minister of Interior says that Russia is attempting to storm two nuclear power plants in Southern Ukraine. Olga Tokariuk, a freelance correspondent in Kyiv says that there are fears of a potential disaster, should they succeed in storming the nuclear plants. She also warns that this is not only a threat to Ukraine, but to all of Europe.

Logistics issues are increasingly apparent in the lack of food for Russian troops, many have gone days without food and are looting civilian stores when they get the opportunity.

Ukraine now claiming about 9,000 Russians killed ** Note likely inflated but one I wouldn’t discount too greatly ** Rough estimate of wounded would be in the neighborhood of 90,000. IF - and this is a BIG IF - nearly half of of the estimated prepositioned force for this combat. Earlier reports were 4,300 personnel (killed and wounded), 200 prisoners of war, 46 aircraft, 26 helicopters, 146 tanks, and 706 armored vehicles of various types. Even these lower numbers indicate Russia is facing serious losses.
Even bigger loss is leadership - (AP) — MOSCOW — Maj. Gen. Andrei Sukhovetsky, the commanding general of the Russian 7th Airborne Division, was killed in fighting in Ukraine earlier this week.

Kyiv front -
A large force of Russian armor remains stalled about 30 KM north of the city. This is the infamous “40 mile long” convoy. Unconfirmed reports that Ukrainian SOF units have been targeting this convoy. Now the ‘convoy’ is under attack by Ukraine air force jets!

General opinion is that there are a combination of factors that have stopped the advance, vehicles outr of fuel blocking the road, key bridges destroyed and general lack of desire by conscripts to enter battle. Combat forces appear to be trying to push south and bypass the western margin of Kyiv with reports from the Mayor of Bucha that fighting is ongoing between the city and Vorzel. Russian forces are predominantly airborne VDV units.

Over the past several days, Kyiv has faced massive bombing attacks while there has been no direct fighting against Russian forces as was characterized in the early battles. These rocket/bombs are targeting residential areas. Videos today from Irpin, located west of Kyiv, captures apartment complexes being devastated by Russian bombing.

Northern Front (Chernihv region ) -
Situation largely unchanged from yesterday. Russians continue to attack Chernihiv with heavy artillery and bombing. There is a potential attempt to push to the southeast along a Kozelets’-Bobrovytsia-Makiivka axis - very possibly in an attempt to connect with similar thin pushes from the north eastern front forces pushing from Konotop and Sumy. These are very much road bound advances that will be subjected to severe interdiction of their fuel and food resupply elements.

North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy - Khariv salient) -
Armor push from Konotop and Sumy show little progress and likely stalled due to logistics. May be seeing an effort to join a push form the Northern front - see above. Konotop may or may not be surrounded but has been under intensive artillery/rocket attacks on residential areas. Khariv also suffered under massive bombing and artillery attacks, striking residential neighborhoods.

Eastern Front -
Separatist/Russian forces are pressuring Mariupo and apparently have surrounded the town to join up with forces pushing in from Crimea. They are expanding their connection with Crimean forces. There have been some limited Ukraine counter offensives into the separatist controlled areas with limited success.

Crimea Front -
By far the most successful front for Russia overnight. Kherson is essentially in Russian control, though there is some resistance. Forces have now pushed to Mykolaiv to the northwest and some elements have gone as far as Voznesensk. This axis of advance seems more focused at trying to reach northward to Kyiv rather than sealing off Odessa.

Growing evidence that Russia is contemplating an amphibious assault in the Odessa region. Uncertain on the capabilities because a lot of marines were used in getting the crimean breakthrough to Mykolaiv and could have to use less trained forces. Russia has adequate naval forces to execute such an operation, but could face serious anti ship defenses it didn’t encounter in the earlier operations.

Current map of depicting Russian advance into Ukraine produced by wikipedia found here -
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4f/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine.svg

NOTE ON MAPS - I favor the above link over others out there because I assess it to be a more accurate depiction of the current situation. /Some show more Russian controlled territory by connecting the long fingers of some of the advances together. Others suffer from lack o f battle tracking and depict old data. UK MOD has another reasonable map, but the above seems to be updated better.

Ukraine President Zelensky’s office says the second round of talks with the Russians has begun over the war in his country. According to Ukraine’s presidential advisor Mykhailo Podolyak, Ukraine is dissatisfied with the outcome of the second round of talks with Russia. The sides will meet for the third round “probably in the nearest time.”
According to Ukraine’s presidential advisor Mykhailo Podolyak, the two sides will together provide humanitarian corridors to evacuate civilians and to deliver food and medicine to the areas with the harshest battles.

OUTLOOK -

It is still amazing that after over a week, Russia still hasn’t established clear air superiority. Ukraine has been able to marshal ground attack sorties on vulnerable and desperately need supply convoys and some artillery assets. Ground based ADA still taking down Russian aircraft and copters. Ukrianan fighters in one on one with newer Russian aircraft have an apparently higher kill ratio.
I expect Ukraine to continue to cut off supplies to Russian forces, slowing and stopping the advance of forces.

However, I expect an even darker side to show up and that is even more severe Russian artillery/air strikes on Ukrainian residential areas. They have been largely unsuccessful going toe to toe with military elements and are now switching to Russian doctrines of the past - rubbling cities block by block to break the will of the citizenry to present resistance. Thermobaric munitions have been deployed on tactic al units, but the concern is that the MOAB/FOAB level of mega thermobaric bombs may start to be used.

I see continued gains in the southern/Crimea front and an increasing chance that Mariupo may start to fall in the next couple days. It is surrounded and facing incredible bombing. No power, water or communications. Crimea forces will also push hard northward.

Watching for the potential of an amphibious operation to put pressure on Odessa.

The other fronts are severely stalled due to logistics and losses. Russian forces may continue to press southward west of Kyiv as part of movement to then swing eastward to start encircling the city. Until then, Kyiv will experience some of the heaviest bombardments of the war. Khariv will also continue to face heavy bombardments of civilian targets.

Many analysts are concerned about Putin’s mental state and the decisions he may make. The rumors of a martial law declaration and mass mobilization are rampant in Russia. Even a “false flag” event on Russian territory to justify it. Some see his state of mind capable of ordering even a tactical nuke strike - (escalate to deescalate ). He may even attempt to strike Poland based resupply locations.
He is facing resistance from Russian citizenry and companies. Economic sanctions are piling on that will have devastating consequences if the war is prolonged. Finally, some analysts estimated that Putin had resources for 10 days worth of war - expecting Ukraine to fall well before that. We are into day eight and Russian forces are in a quagmire.

Increasing chance that Russian air forces get shot down by NATO or other countries as they rattle cages like with Sweden. Considerable numbers of intelligence aircraft monitoring the region and CAP flying in the event of an incursion.

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Belarus -

Analysts still tracking the Belarus military convoy, but no confirmed entry into Ukraine.

RUMINT - According to sources, Belarusian soldiers near Homel in Belarus have refused to move towards Ukraine. Their commanders are claiming they’ll just stand by the border but soldiers refuse.

The Belarus president may have let the cat out of the bag when making a public presentation on the Ukraine war, depicting Russian attack axises and goals. (Note - Matches the Wiki map linked above ). It had one detail that raised eyebrows, and that was one attack axis from the Crimea region, over Odessa and into Moldova (a non-NATO country) Russian forces control a thin strip of territory along the Moldovian border with Ukraine and this axis may represent an attempt to form another ‘land bridge’ like they have between Crimea and the Dombass region. Others wonder if Putin is actually considering invading the country as well.

OBSERVATION - Belarusian forces will only be cannon fodder foe the Ukraine forces, being even more poorly trained than Russian conscripts.
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Poland -

Poland has taken in the vast majority of the approximately one million refugees. It is also serving as the hub for international munitions being sent to Ukraine.
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Europe / NATO General -

Hungary will not veto European Union sanctions against Russia and the unity of the 27-member bloc is paramount given the war in Ukraine, which Hungary condemns unequivocally, Prime Minister Viktor Orban said. Orban has been strongly criticized by the Hungarian opposition for his friendly ties with Russia.

EU ambassadors have now approved the economic sanctions package on Belarus

Estonian owned cargo ship ‘Helt’ sinks off the coast of Ukraine. There are reports that the vessel hit a mine.

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