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Running a little late this morning.

REMINDER - My Ping list got corrupted overnight and having to rebuild from one from 2019. Pass the word to your friends to contact me to be reestablished on the Ping list.
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Wuhan virus -

In a non-peer reviewed report published by Epoch times, newly published CDC data shows a massive increase in COVID-19 infections and hospitalizations since the emergence of the omicron variant among those who have been fully vaccinated.
The data, which is used by local health departments across the nation, indicate the case rate in fully vaccinated people rose by more than 1,000% between Dec. 11, 2021, and Jan. 8, 2022. The COVID case rate of those who received a booster, a third shot, also spiked, by about 2,400% between the same dates. People who haven’t received a vaccine were just 3.2 times more likely to test positive for COVID-19 in January” than boosted adults.
OBSERVATION - There will be a lot of future discussion of this data, but if this interpretation holds true it points to a gross failure of the wuhan jab.

The fully vaccinated account for 9 of every 10 deaths from COVID-19 in England and 4 of 5 deaths among the triple-vaccinated, according to the latest data published by the U.K. Health Security Agency.
OBSERVATION - Like the CDC data above, these interpretations will be under examination as to the data.

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Economy -

Oil prices extended their rally on Thursday, with Brent rising above $116 a barrel, as trade disruption and shipping issues from Russian sanctions over the Ukraine crisis sparked supply worries while U.S. crude stocks fell to multi-year lows.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies including Russia have decided to maintain an increase in output by 400,000 barrels per day in March despite the price surge, ignoring the Ukraine crisis during their talks and snubbing calls from consumers for more crude.

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Strategic Activity / Deployments -

Navy recovered the stealth F-35 from South China Sea that crashed on landing last month.

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Russia -

WAR WATCH - The Battle for Kyiv continues - Kyiv still stands after 8 days. This situation is rapidly developing and remains fluid.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Putin desperation is being manifested in more brutal indiscriminate artillery/bombing of civilian targets . Some Russian forces, particularly in the southern area of Ukraine, appear to be getting their act together, but are still facing vicious defense measures. However, efforts to surround Kyiv are still stalled to progressing slowly.

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

RUMINT The Russian Federation Council is set to hold an unscheduled meeting on Friday, leading to widespread speculation in Moscow that the country might impose martial law. (The Guardian)
MIdst reports martial law could be declared & borders closed, more reports of Russian’s trying to flee the country. Uncertain if related, a Russian plane reportedly headed from Moscow to Yerevan (Armenia) was diverted and landed in southern Russia.

Russian missile hit Bangladesh-flagged Bulk Carrier BANGLAR SAMRIDDHI

The Council of Deputies of the Gagarinsky Municipal District in Moscow condemned the military actions on the territory of Ukraine and called on Vladimir Putin to immediately withdraw his troops from there

Four Russian fighter jets violated Swedish airspace over the Baltic Sea, according to the Swedish military. It says 2 Su-24s and 2 Su-27s violated the airspace earlier today. JAS-39 Gripen aircraft were scrambled to intercept.The UN General Assembly has approved a resolution demanding that Russia cease fighting in Ukraine and withdraw all troops.

French President Emmanuel Macron believes “the worst is to come” in Ukraine after a 90-minute phone call with Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin who appears intent on seizing “the whole” of the country, an aide to the French leader said.

US analysts may see the above warning as evidence that Putin is putting in place an “escalate to de-escalate” plan into motion. It has roots in Russia’s planning for a war against the United States, former Defense Intelligence Agency officer Rebekah Koffler said, but similar thinking is now standard throughout Russia’s military planning. During a theoretical war with the U.S., Koffler said, Russia would strike first by “popping a low yield tactical nuke thinking that it’s going to be such a psychological shock that the conflict would end.”
In the context of the Ukraine war, that might mean that Russia would move to flatten cities like Kyiv with traditional weapons as long as Ukrainians continue to resist their invasion, according to Koffler. All of this would be with the purpose of breaking the wills of Ukraine and the West until they capitulate to Russian demands and de-escalate.
OBSERVATION - If Putin is moving down this road, then the worst IS yet to come. He is supposed to address the nation on Friday, have to see what that brings.

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Economic hits continue to increase. -
The World Bank said on Wednesday it had stopped all programs in Russia and Belarus with immediate effect, following the Russian invasion of Ukraine and “hostilities against the people of Ukraine.”

Global hunt for the luxury boats owned by the rich Russian Oligarchs is underway, with Germany bagging the first seizing Russian billionaire Alisher Usmanov’s 512-foot yacht Dilbar, valued at nearly $600 million in Hamberg.

Russian natural-gas giant Gazprom, oil-producer Lukoil and leading bank Sberbank are all penny stocks based on their trading on the London Stock Exchange, as the local market was shut for a third day.
Sberbank SBER, -87.43%, which had assets of over $500 billion at the end of 2021, was trading for 3 cents a share in afternoon action. The European Commission on Wednesday approved the resolution plan for its Croatian and Slovenian arms that will be sold. Its Austrian and Czech operations will be wound down, with depositors compensated up to €100,000.
Lukoil LKOD, -96.03%, Gazprom OGZD, -84.21%, and Rosneft Oil ROSN, -64.03% continued to collapse as the dollar-denominated secondary listings in London remained the one venue where Russia’s top companies could be valued.

Russian oil giant Lukoil calls for halt to Ukraine war

The United States and other Western countries have frozen nearly $1 trillion worth of Russian assets to date.

After yesterday’s note of hacking, the head of Russia’s space agency has stated that Russia will be treating any hacking of its satellites as justification for war, after an alleged hack of their systems was claimed by a ‘non-state’ hacker group on Tuesday according to media reports.

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Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Temperatures forecast thru March 9th show temperatures in the mid 30’s with rain/snow.
This forecast indicates that soil conditions are shifting from frozen much softer. New moon on March 2d.

MUD - Lets talk about ‘mud’ some more. Found some interesting information on these conditions and historical impacts. They have a name for conditions associated with the spring thaw - Rasputitsa - literally means ‘Time without roads”. - when the spring thaw hits and the countryside turns to goo. Hindered napoleon’ s invasion of Russia in 1812, and Germany’s invasion of Russia in 1941. “The Ukrainian mud in the spring has to be seen to be believed wrote a British journalist during the Russian offensive in 1944. Growing evidence of why Russia forces are reluctant to maneuver across the fields and are remaining road bound.

RUNINT -
Russia’s intelligence agency, the Federal Security Service, has drafted plans for public executions in Ukraine after cities are captured, per a European intelligence official. The agency is also planning violent crowd control and repressive detention of protest organisers in order to break Ukrainian morale
OBSERVATION - This may be a red line that would draw NATO into the fight if this is true and they attempt this. The question is - are these acts beyond the capability of Putin’s Russia? At this stage the answer is yes.

24 HOUR ROUND UP

While absorbing brutal and indiscriminate artillery barrages and air strikes, Ukraine defenses remain stable in the north and east. Most likely lead by airborne forces, Russia continue to make gains in the south, expanding its successes connecting with separatist forces near Mariupo and capturing bridges and crossing the Dniper at Kherson. Kherson is apparently the first major city to fall though there are still pockets of resistance.

U.S. assesses Putin has put in 90 percent of pre-staged combat power in Ukraine, according to a senior U.S. official. That’s up from about 82 percent Wednesday, 80 percent Tuesday, and about 75 percent Monday.
NOTE - Pre-invasion it was estimated that Putin had positioned nearly 75% of Russia’s ground combat forces to the region. Unless he pulls some of the remaining units to the region, he’s running out of troops fast.

Ukraine’s Deputy Minister of Interior says that Russia is attempting to storm two nuclear power plants in Southern Ukraine. Olga Tokariuk, a freelance correspondent in Kyiv says that there are fears of a potential disaster, should they succeed in storming the nuclear plants. She also warns that this is not only a threat to Ukraine, but to all of Europe.

Logistics issues are increasingly apparent in the lack of food for Russian troops, many have gone days without food and are looting civilian stores when they get the opportunity.

Ukraine now claiming about 9,000 Russians killed ** Note likely inflated but one I wouldn’t discount too greatly ** Rough estimate of wounded would be in the neighborhood of 90,000. IF - and this is a BIG IF - nearly half of of the estimated prepositioned force for this combat. Earlier reports were 4,300 personnel (killed and wounded), 200 prisoners of war, 46 aircraft, 26 helicopters, 146 tanks, and 706 armored vehicles of various types. Even these lower numbers indicate Russia is facing serious losses.
Even bigger loss is leadership - (AP) — MOSCOW — Maj. Gen. Andrei Sukhovetsky, the commanding general of the Russian 7th Airborne Division, was killed in fighting in Ukraine earlier this week.

Kyiv front -
A large force of Russian armor remains stalled about 30 KM north of the city. This is the infamous “40 mile long” convoy. Unconfirmed reports that Ukrainian SOF units have been targeting this convoy. Now the ‘convoy’ is under attack by Ukraine air force jets!

General opinion is that there are a combination of factors that have stopped the advance, vehicles outr of fuel blocking the road, key bridges destroyed and general lack of desire by conscripts to enter battle. Combat forces appear to be trying to push south and bypass the western margin of Kyiv with reports from the Mayor of Bucha that fighting is ongoing between the city and Vorzel. Russian forces are predominantly airborne VDV units.

Over the past several days, Kyiv has faced massive bombing attacks while there has been no direct fighting against Russian forces as was characterized in the early battles. These rocket/bombs are targeting residential areas. Videos today from Irpin, located west of Kyiv, captures apartment complexes being devastated by Russian bombing.

Northern Front (Chernihv region ) -
Situation largely unchanged from yesterday. Russians continue to attack Chernihiv with heavy artillery and bombing. There is a potential attempt to push to the southeast along a Kozelets’-Bobrovytsia-Makiivka axis - very possibly in an attempt to connect with similar thin pushes from the north eastern front forces pushing from Konotop and Sumy. These are very much road bound advances that will be subjected to severe interdiction of their fuel and food resupply elements.

North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy - Khariv salient) -
Armor push from Konotop and Sumy show little progress and likely stalled due to logistics. May be seeing an effort to join a push form the Northern front - see above. Konotop may or may not be surrounded but has been under intensive artillery/rocket attacks on residential areas. Khariv also suffered under massive bombing and artillery attacks, striking residential neighborhoods.

Eastern Front -
Separatist/Russian forces are pressuring Mariupo and apparently have surrounded the town to join up with forces pushing in from Crimea. They are expanding their connection with Crimean forces. There have been some limited Ukraine counter offensives into the separatist controlled areas with limited success.

Crimea Front -
By far the most successful front for Russia overnight. Kherson is essentially in Russian control, though there is some resistance. Forces have now pushed to Mykolaiv to the northwest and some elements have gone as far as Voznesensk. This axis of advance seems more focused at trying to reach northward to Kyiv rather than sealing off Odessa.

Growing evidence that Russia is contemplating an amphibious assault in the Odessa region. Uncertain on the capabilities because a lot of marines were used in getting the crimean breakthrough to Mykolaiv and could have to use less trained forces. Russia has adequate naval forces to execute such an operation, but could face serious anti ship defenses it didn’t encounter in the earlier operations.

Current map of depicting Russian advance into Ukraine produced by wikipedia found here -
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4f/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine.svg

NOTE ON MAPS - I favor the above link over others out there because I assess it to be a more accurate depiction of the current situation. /Some show more Russian controlled territory by connecting the long fingers of some of the advances together. Others suffer from lack o f battle tracking and depict old data. UK MOD has another reasonable map, but the above seems to be updated better.

Ukraine President Zelensky’s office says the second round of talks with the Russians has begun over the war in his country. According to Ukraine’s presidential advisor Mykhailo Podolyak, Ukraine is dissatisfied with the outcome of the second round of talks with Russia. The sides will meet for the third round “probably in the nearest time.”
According to Ukraine’s presidential advisor Mykhailo Podolyak, the two sides will together provide humanitarian corridors to evacuate civilians and to deliver food and medicine to the areas with the harshest battles.

OUTLOOK -

It is still amazing that after over a week, Russia still hasn’t established clear air superiority. Ukraine has been able to marshal ground attack sorties on vulnerable and desperately need supply convoys and some artillery assets. Ground based ADA still taking down Russian aircraft and copters. Ukrianan fighters in one on one with newer Russian aircraft have an apparently higher kill ratio.
I expect Ukraine to continue to cut off supplies to Russian forces, slowing and stopping the advance of forces.

However, I expect an even darker side to show up and that is even more severe Russian artillery/air strikes on Ukrainian residential areas. They have been largely unsuccessful going toe to toe with military elements and are now switching to Russian doctrines of the past - rubbling cities block by block to break the will of the citizenry to present resistance. Thermobaric munitions have been deployed on tactic al units, but the concern is that the MOAB/FOAB level of mega thermobaric bombs may start to be used.

I see continued gains in the southern/Crimea front and an increasing chance that Mariupo may start to fall in the next couple days. It is surrounded and facing incredible bombing. No power, water or communications. Crimea forces will also push hard northward.

Watching for the potential of an amphibious operation to put pressure on Odessa.

The other fronts are severely stalled due to logistics and losses. Russian forces may continue to press southward west of Kyiv as part of movement to then swing eastward to start encircling the city. Until then, Kyiv will experience some of the heaviest bombardments of the war. Khariv will also continue to face heavy bombardments of civilian targets.

Many analysts are concerned about Putin’s mental state and the decisions he may make. The rumors of a martial law declaration and mass mobilization are rampant in Russia. Even a “false flag” event on Russian territory to justify it. Some see his state of mind capable of ordering even a tactical nuke strike - (escalate to deescalate ). He may even attempt to strike Poland based resupply locations.
He is facing resistance from Russian citizenry and companies. Economic sanctions are piling on that will have devastating consequences if the war is prolonged. Finally, some analysts estimated that Putin had resources for 10 days worth of war - expecting Ukraine to fall well before that. We are into day eight and Russian forces are in a quagmire.

Increasing chance that Russian air forces get shot down by NATO or other countries as they rattle cages like with Sweden. Considerable numbers of intelligence aircraft monitoring the region and CAP flying in the event of an incursion.

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Belarus -

Analysts still tracking the Belarus military convoy, but no confirmed entry into Ukraine.

RUMINT - According to sources, Belarusian soldiers near Homel in Belarus have refused to move towards Ukraine. Their commanders are claiming they’ll just stand by the border but soldiers refuse.

The Belarus president may have let the cat out of the bag when making a public presentation on the Ukraine war, depicting Russian attack axises and goals. (Note - Matches the Wiki map linked above ). It had one detail that raised eyebrows, and that was one attack axis from the Crimea region, over Odessa and into Moldova (a non-NATO country) Russian forces control a thin strip of territory along the Moldovian border with Ukraine and this axis may represent an attempt to form another ‘land bridge’ like they have between Crimea and the Dombass region. Others wonder if Putin is actually considering invading the country as well.

OBSERVATION - Belarusian forces will only be cannon fodder foe the Ukraine forces, being even more poorly trained than Russian conscripts.
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Poland -

Poland has taken in the vast majority of the approximately one million refugees. It is also serving as the hub for international munitions being sent to Ukraine.
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Europe / NATO General -

Hungary will not veto European Union sanctions against Russia and the unity of the 27-member bloc is paramount given the war in Ukraine, which Hungary condemns unequivocally, Prime Minister Viktor Orban said. Orban has been strongly criticized by the Hungarian opposition for his friendly ties with Russia.

EU ambassadors have now approved the economic sanctions package on Belarus

Estonian owned cargo ship ‘Helt’ sinks off the coast of Ukraine. There are reports that the vessel hit a mine.

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Back at it, feeling a little better
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Wuhan virus -

Demand for the COVID-19 vaccine has dropped significantly, and states are scrambling to use up their stockpiles of vaccines before they expire. Plus, more of today’s COVID news.
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CW2/Domestic violence -

A group of Black Lives Matter and Antifa rioters were convicted on federal charges after attempting to frame the Proud Boys for a series of vandalism and arson attacks the far-left extremists carried out on Atlanta police vehicles and United States Postal Service property during the lead up to the 2020 presidential election.

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Strategic Activity / Deployments -

The Truman CSG has been moved into the Aegean Sea, closer to the Ukraine theater. Probably supporting the French aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle
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China -

China continues to straddle the fence over the Ukraine war, playing both ends against the middle. However, I think they may be set back both on the poor performance of the Russian military and the vast economic counter that hit.

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North Korea -

NK popped off another rocket yesterday, same general flight characteristics as the previous one.

Some observers are raising the anticipation level of a much bigger event by NK, even the possibility of an another nuclear test.
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Russia -

WAR WATCH - The Battle for Kyiv continues - Kyiv still stands after 10 days. This situation is rapidly developing and remains fluid.

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

Videos out yesterday show a number of trains loaded armor vehicles at Khabarovsk. Load out identified BMP-2, MTLV and ZSU23/4 vehicles Khabarovskis near the Pacific and near the border with China. This would be the Far East Military District. It will take a couple weeks to get to the Ukraine theatre. No word if there will be troops accompanying the equipment.’
OBSERVATION - This is a sign that the war is NOT going well for Putin. Observers have already noted that the maintenance issues on the equipment currently in combat is very poor and a cause of a lot of losses in addition to the mud, ambushes and running out of gas. And these were their active duty units. This equipment, coming out of storage at least could start up, and get loaded, however the quality of maintenance is highly questionable. That said, suggests a level of desperation.

RUMINT - Reports of Kazakhstan mobilizing and loading up armor on to trains. This could be a misinterpretation of the report above. Kazakhstan has already rejected a call by Russia to join the war.

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PM Naftali Bennett has been in talks in the Kremlin with Russian Pres Vladimir Putin for about two and a half hours.

President Vladimir Putin likened Western sanctions on Russia to a “declaration of war” and threatened Ukraine with loss of its statehood if its leaders continued to resist his military invasion.
OBSERVATION - Some consider this just tough talk for propaganda purposes. OTOH Putin’s trend has been to double and triple down. Sanctions are going to be hurting very very soon, the clock is ticking.

Lavrov: “Our delegation expects Ukrainians to respond to our demands to disarm Ukraine and recognize Crimea as Russian territory”

The US military has established channels to communicate directly with the Russian military as a way to deconflict tactical movements around Ukraine

Economic hits continue to increase. -

JPMorgan said on Thursday it expected Russia’s economy to contract 35% in the second quarter and 7% in 2022 with the economy suffering an economic output decline comparable to the 1998 crisis.

More and more companies are cutting ties to Russian firms and shutting down businesses.

The Russian stock market was closed all week and the value of a ruble remains below one US cent. Moody’s Investor Service today dropped its credit rating of Russian debt to junk status. economist Steve Hanke, who specializes in measuring real inflation rates, estimated Russia’s annual inflation rate has already hit 61 percent, and this was before the war. Expected to get much worse.

Blinken says ‘no strategic interest’ in Russia energy sanctions, resists calls for oil import ban
Secretary of State Antony Blinken downplayed the impact that energy sanctions on Russia would have, arguing any such sanctions would hurt America and its allies more than they would Moscow. This is flying in the face of increasing congressional calls for cutting off imports.

Inspire of new laws and crackdowns - protests against the war continue through out Russia.
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Ukraine -

24 HOUR ROUND UP

The Ukrainian Armed Forces have announced that they have killed Spetsnaz commander and deputy chief of the 41 Army in Novosibirsk Andrey Sukhovetskiy. While sick yesterday, Ukraine announced that the got another division and regimental commander.

It has been a bad 48 hours for the Russian AF as losses have increased significantly. Russian Air Force losses over Ukraine in the past 48 hours:

- 1x Su-30SM multirole aircraft
- 2 Su-34 strike aircraft
- 3 Su-25 close air support aircraft
- 2 Mi-24/35 attack helicopters
- 1 Mi-8 transport helicopter
- 1 Orlan-10 UAV

The main reason for the losses are the abundance of MANPAD systems combined with the switch to using ‘dummy’ bombs, which require lower flight paths to drop accurately. Some argument as to why Russia ceased its use of guided bombs, some thinking they simply ran out. I think that since the bombing has switched to targeting residential apartments and areas there is no need for ‘precision’. My understanding is that Russians pilots are poorly practiced in this kind of bombing - that under counter fire and PGMs are dropped from a much higher (and safer) altitude. One of the pilots was captured and was identified as having experience in Syria based on a photo of pilot with Assad.

Expect to see more Mi-24/35 attack helicopter losses. Russia seems to be putting more of them as cover for the POL convoys and only in ones and twos. Low, slow and very vulnerable.

Not a good day for the ground pounders either, relatively confirmed report that in the Kiev region, near Severinovka, the Russian occupation forces came into battle with ... the Russian occupation forces. As a result, thanks to “friendly fire”, 9 tanks and 4 armored personnel carriers were destroyed.

Russia agreed to a cease fire to allow non combatants to leave Mariupol and eastern town of Volnovakha. Evacuation have just been canceled for Mariupol by local authorities saying Russia not observing ceasefire. In Irpin, Russian shelling damaged an evacuation train and the tracks.

Russian forces in Kherson and Meliopol have faced protests by citizens that have force them to pull back from some of their positions in the city.

Kyiv front -
A large force of Russian armor remains stalled about 30 KM north of the city. This is the infamous “40 mile long” convoy.
Current assessment is that the the lead tip of this column are completely out of fuel and food by this time. With road congestion and the death mud (see earlier post) if one goes off the pavement, further movement is doubtful. Additionally along the Irpin River, Ukraine opened up the gates to a dam, flooding a vast area down stream, further limited any potential movements. Russian forces having to swing farther to the west in an attempt to encircle Kyiv from the west and south. Outlying towns being reduced to rubble.
The town of Irpin has come under increased pressure by Russian forces pushing to Kyiv and has been hit hard by the indiscriminate bombing by Russia forces. In Irpin, Russian shelling damaged an evacuation train and the tracks after an agreement to allow non-combatants to leave.

Limited offensive actions out of Kyiv have opened up a lot of area to the south and southwest, permitting resupply of ATGM and MANPADS was well as other supplies.

Northern Front (Chernihv region ) -
Situation largely unchanged from yesterday. Russians continue to attack Chernihiv with heavy artillery and bombing. The push to the southeast along a Kozelets’-Bobrovytsia-Makiivka axis - very possibly in an attempt to connect with similar thin pushes from the north eastern front forces pushing from Konotop and Sumy, appears to have its lead elements cut off and are currently ‘surrounded’ with no logistics chain.

North Eastern Front (Konotop - Sumy - Khariv salient) -
Armor push from Konotop and Sumy show little progress and likely stalled due to logistics. May be seeing an effort to join a push form the Northern front - see above. Konotop may or may not be surrounded but has been under intensive artillery/rocket attacks on residential areas. Khariv and Sumy also suffering under massive bombing and artillery attacks, striking residential neighborhoods.

Eastern Front -
Separatist/Russian forces continue to pressure Mariupol and have continued attacking in spite of a cease fire. Lines are pretty static along the old LOC.

Crimea Front -
By far the most successful front for Russia overnight. The nuclear plant at Enerhodar is under Russian control. Forces have now pushed to Mykolaiv to the northwest and some elements have gone as far as Voznesensk (site of another nuclear plant). The Voznesensk attack was supported intially by an air assault attack. This axis of advance seems more focused at trying to reach northward to Kyiv rather than sealing off Odessa. Additional pushes eastward to expand the land bridge with the separatist controlled Dombass region.
No move to encircle Odessa which makes me think the emphasis now is a long march northward to try to cut off the eastern half of the nation and pressure the defense of Kyiv. No naval movements to suggest an immanent amphibious operation either.

Current map of depicting Russian advance into Ukraine produced by wikipedia found here -
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4f/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine.svg

OUTLOOK -

Some have estimated that Russia had planned on no more than 10 days to complete the invasion and subdue Ukraine. We are at that 10 day mark. Russia has called on ‘friends’ for help and gotten none, not even Belarus (apart from basing Russian aircraft and missile launches). Most analysts see increasingly brutal attacks on civilians versus military targets. As they do so, it is galvanizing international support for Ukraine and further isolating Russia economically and politically.

Russia has a large army, on the books, but if the quality is the same as its active forces, their insertion into the combat will not do much to sway the fight. Their training and equipment status is most likely far below the level of the active duty units already in the fight.

I expect more of a push northward by the Crimean forces (who IMHO were the best trained and equipped ) towards Voznesensk and the nuclear power plant just beyond. Pre war positioning and heavy initial losses do not suggest that they can sustain a northward assault without being seriously over extended and subject to having the POL chain interdicted as the other fronts. This road bound assault does not support a general encirclement of Odessa, thought by many to the next target of Russian southern operations.

Russian airpower will continue to be relatively impotent in swaying the fight - except to bomb residential areas. Urkraine air power, much of which is thought to be relatively intact and in the mostly untouched western Ukraine, may continue to assert itself. The combination of TB2 drones taking out Russian ADA capabilities will increase the chances Ukraine AF will strike as Russian troops have far fewer MANPAD systems than the Ukrainians apparent have and know how to use.

A “No Fly” zone is still out of the picture barring a Russian atrocity such as using MOAB/FOAB or even tactical nukes. Half of Ukraine is mostly uncontested and resupply and reinforcements can come in from that region to the war zones in the east. If Russian AF attempts to contest those resupply operations, it may raise the risk of combat with the substantial CAP flying over Poland and Baltics.

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Belarus -

With all the rumors, no Belarus combat forces are known to be in Ukraine.
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Europe / NATO General -

French Defense Minister: The aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle will take up a position in the Mediterranean for reconnaissance missions over the Baltic countries

Five Russian ships including frigates are turning elsewhere for replenishment after being denied entry into Limassol of Republic of Cyprus, with the island’s foreign ministry scrapping a previous agreement citing the ongoing war in Ukraine.

UNSC meeting today on Russia’s attack on Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant in Ukraine. Sweden condemns the Russian military aggression against Ukraine & demands that all parties fully comply with their obligations under int’l humanitarian law to spare the civilian population

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