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REMINDER - My Ping list got corrupted overnight and having to rebuild from one from 2019. Pass the word to your friends to contact me to be reestablished on the Ping list.

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TRUCKER PROTESTS

Canadian Truck protest. Recommend FR threads for up to date info -
- Trucker lawsuits moving forward

US convoy -
- American convoy now is approximately approximately 15 miles long. Still looking at a March 4th arrival in DC.
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Economy -

The Fed is set to raise interest rates when it meets on March 15-16. Officials have been debating whether the initial “liftoff” should be a standard quarter point increase, or a larger half point hike to demonstrate the Fed’s seriousness in controlling prices.
On Thursday, Fed Governor Christopher Waller flagged Friday’s PCE inflation report as one to watch, saying if it shows “the economy is still running exceedingly hot, a strong case can be made for a 50-basis-point hike in March.”
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Biden watch -

In the midst of the Ukraine / Russia conflict, biden goes back to Delaware again for the weekend. What will be his response to Russia raising its nuclear force readiness to its highest level.
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Strategic Activity / Deployments -

Pending information on any changes to US DEFCON based on Russia placing its forces at its highest level of alert.

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Cyber Warfare -

See Anonymous attack on Russia govt.

Warnings of Russia cyber attacks against US financial targets in response to SWIFT sanctions.
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China -

China has reportedly announced ‘military exercises’ in the South China Sea across a six nautical mile radius from Sunday to Tuesday.

Yesterday a US destroyer transited the Taiwan Straits, bringing condemnation from China.

China is prepared to offer its Cross-Border International Payments System (CIPS) to Russia as an alternative to SWIFT. The CIPS alternative would prevent the U.S. and its allies from imposing restrictions on Russian international hard-currency transactions. CIPS uses China’s Yuan as its primary currency, which provides a lower 1% inflation rate in a currency that has gained 8% on the U.S. dollar since the COVID recession.

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North Korea -

NK launched a ballastic missile yesterday into the Sea of Japan. Japanese Defense Minister Nobuo Kishi said Sunday’s missile may have flown as high as 600 kilometers (400 miles), to a range of 300 kilometers (200 miles).

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Russia -

WAR WATCH - The Battle for Kyiv continues - Kyiv still stands. This situation is rapidly developing and remains fluid.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Evidence mounting that Russia has waded into a buzz saw and Putin is becoming desperate .

************************************** ALERT *********************************

President Vladimir Putin has ordered Russian nuclear deterrent forces on alert amid tensions with the West over his invasion of Ukraine.
Speaking at a meeting with his top officials, Putin asserted on Sunday that leading NATO powers had made “aggressive statements” along with the West imposing hard-hitting financial sanctions against Russia, including the president himself.
Putin ordered the Russian defense minister and the chief of the military’s General Staff to put the nuclear deterrent forces in a “special regime of combat duty.” ***** This is the highest form of combat readiness of these troops. *****

Following the conclusion of this meeting and announcement a huge motorcade was observed leaving the Kremlin at “speed”.

OBSERVATION - This is a serous development and threat. If Putin is as desperate as reports indicate, he could lash out in desperation against the US. Russian strategic deterrence forces includes conventional weapons. No response or info on changes to US or NATO status.
Russian nuclear alert weakens their operational freedom. Now air, sea and tactical missile operations must be planned and executed in a way that NATO does not misinterpret those as nuclear launch.

THIS DOESN’T MEAN THAT A NUCLEAR ATTACK IS IMMINENT SO LETS KEEP OUR HEADS FOR A MOMENT.

************************************** ALERT *********************************

RUMINT . . . . .RUMINT - Russian General Staff has ordered troops to take Kyiv by Monday, no matter the costs of human life.
Monitoring, however, this would reflect the increasing desperation of the Russian leadership a the lack of progress and high casualties that have been sustained. However, judging from the high moral and motivation of the Ukraine nation, command and control would shift to a resistance model that would still keep Russian forces in the meat grinder. Putin may win Kyiv, but lose the war.

With the severance from SWIFT, credit cards issued by Russian banks no longer working and ruble is worthless. Bank runs are developing in Russia

Russia’s war is costing about 20 Billion (US) per day, and some estimate that Putin will have eaten up his reserve funds (remember he had to spend billions just moving forces into the region) after 10 days of fighting. With the imposition of SWIFT and other sanctions, that reserve will be consumed at even a higher rate.
Another reported shortfall for Russia are tactical missiles. It is estimated that they only had less than 300 at the start of combat and have used most of them up. Russian production is hampered by supply shortages to replace them in any meaningful time frame.

Numerous computer chip producers have now stopped all shipments of chips to Russia.

(Reuters) - Russia’s space agency Roskosmos is suspending cooperation with Europe on space launches from the Kourou spaceport in French Guiana in response to Western sanctions over Ukraine, Roskosmos head Dmitry Rogozin said on Saturday

Protests continue throughout Russia in spite of thousands being arrested.

The infamous hacking group Anonymous continues it’s all-out digital war against Russia.
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Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Temperatures forecast thru March 4th show temperatures in the mid to upper 40’s to even 50’s with rain/snow.
This forecast indicates that soil conditions are shifting from frozen much softer. The moon in waning.

QUOTE OF THE CENTURY In response to US request to evacuate Kyiv, Ukraine’s Zelensky said he needed ‘ammunition, not a ride’

24 HOUR ROUND UP

Ukrainian forces fought Russian troops again on the Kyiv outskirts, but the intensity was far lower than the previous night. Russian troops though to be remnants from previous night. Russian forces attacking Kyiv had to pause its operations for logistical reasons.

There appears to be a shift in Russian targeting towards critical civilian infrastructure, greater use of MLRS, and artillery in suburban areas. Numerous petroleum facilities and natural gas facilities hit and destroyed. This shift also bodes ill for increasing civilian causalities .

Approximately 4,300 Russian troops were killed so far, says Ukrainian Defense Ministry. The ministry also said 706 Russian APCs, 146 tanks, 27 planes, and 26 helicopters had been destroyed between Feb. 24-26.
NOTE - These are numbers provided by Ukraine and may be exaggerated. However from observing Russian responses such has seeking reinforcements from allied nations they may not be too far off. Rough estimate of wounded would be in the neighborhood of 43,000.

Reinforcements from staging areas in Russia are bearing a “V” in stead of a “Z” invasion marking. A large number of them are showing up in Belarus areas near the border. There are rumors that Russia will attempt another invasion into Ukraine further to the west of initial attacks.

Russia launched a titanic artillery/MLRS barrage followed by a ground assault against Kharkiv (Ukraine 2d largest city) that was forcesd back by defenders. Reportedly (propaganda alert) some of the Russian soldiers were Spetsnaz who abandoned their vehicles and retreated. Cant confirm the Spetsnaz aspect but Ukraine sourced videos show a lot of abandoned, operable vehicles captured.

Russian armored forces in the north eastern front (Konotep to Sumy) are taking a gamble by bypassing cities and out running their POL support which is largely road bound. Ukrainians already taking advantage of similar elsewhere slowing and stopping in some instances Russian progress. These logistical convoys are essentially unguarded, unarmored wheeled vehicles very prone to attacks.

Yesterday there was a lot of talk about Chechen units fighting for Russian and reports that Ukraine had neutralized a number of them. One such report Ukraine said they have “neutralized” the Chechen general, Magomed Tushayev. Apparently, he could have been killed near Kiev, in the area known as Hostome. Tushayev He was in charge of the 141 motorized regiment of the so-called Kadyrov guard: one of the most elite units in Chechnya and whose contingent would be made up of about 400 men.
NOTE - The leading Chechen warlord is a strong supporter of Putin, but Ukraine isn’t Chechnya.

Current map of depicting Russian advance into Ukraine produced by wikipedia found here -
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/c/c3/Russo-Ukraine_Conflict_%282014-present%29.svg/2560px-Russo-Ukraine_Conflict_%282014-present%29.svg.png

The Ukrainian government has set up a hotline for families of Russian soldiers to call in and enquire about their status. Additionally, according to the Ukrainian MOD, captured prisoners have the opportunity to call home

Increasing documentation of Russian cluster munitions being fired into civilian areas of Ukraine, including residential areas, schools and hospitals.

OUTLOOK -

There seems to be movement towards a resolution. After rejection Russian talk locations, Zelensky says he agreed with Lukashenko to meet for peace talks with Russian delegates at the border near Pripyat River. Lukashenko has given his word to ground all Russian armed forces in Belarus during the Ukrainian negotiators’ travel, talks, & return. No word on Russia acceptance.

Russia is increasingly desperate to bring this conflict to a conclusion by capturing Kyiv and stopping the substantial losses. The focus will be Kyiv. Armored columns pushing from the east (Konotep and Sumy) will continue a risky assault by bypassing cities/choke points, a tactic that dangerously exposes its logistics tail, will try to reinforce the Russian forces attempting to take Kyiv.

Expect more sluggish advances by Russian forces in the south, trying to pressure Odessa and in some measure trying to punch northward to join the Kyiv seige.

Countering this will be the aggressive and successful use of man portable anti tank munitions and MANPADS ADA weapons. OSINT and military analysts continue to be amazed at the resilience and determination of the Ukraine defense and there is no evidence that there is any loss of will to resist.

Russian focus on the eastern half of Ukraine will allow resupply from European countries to enter from the west relatively unopposed. I wonder when Ukrainian forces in the west will be mobilized to move eastward to relieve the siege of Kyiv. Such a move would face Russian air power, but the relief forces would be armed to the teeth with MANPADS and could move at night (hampering Russian air attacks). Russian tunnel vision to seize Kyiv may blind it to this effort.
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Belarus -

Anti war protests have broken out in multiple places in Minsk and Zhodzina, Belarus.

French President Emmanuel Macron has asked his Belarus counterpart to demand that the country, Ukraine’s neighbor, quickly order Russian troops to leave. Macron denounced “the gravity of a decision that would authorize Russia to deploy nuclear arms on Belarus soil.”

Unconfirmed reports that a massive air assault is being planned involving dozens of planes and Belorussian special forces airborne soldiers. Landing sites are planned for around Kyiv and Zhytomyr. Ukraine ADA capabilities have caused similar Russian operations around Kyiv to become disasters.
OBSERVATION - In general Belarus soldiers are even more poorly trained than Russian conscripts. Two airborne / assault by Russia has been foiled. This may well face the same fate.
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Poland -

Pushing more arms and munitions into Ukraine.
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Europe / NATO General -

Britain is asking G7 partners to impose a cap on gas and oil imports from Russia.

Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Sweden, and Iceland join growing list of countries to ban Russian planes from their airspace

In a significant shift, the German government said Saturday it will send weapons and other supplies directly to Ukraine and supports some restrictions of the SWIFT global banking system for Russia.
Germany’s chancellery announced it will send 1,000 anti-tank weapons and 500 “Stinger” surface-to-air missiles to Ukraine “as quickly as possible.”
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