Threat Matrix 2022

Welcome to the Threat Matrix 2022. Keep up to date on the multiple threats to our country and life.

Entering into August, things are getting hotter globally.

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Globalism / Great Reset -

Farmers in Northern Italy are coming together in huge numbers to protest the govt restriction of the use of fertilizer. This is in part a govt mandated restriction as well as global shortage.

OBSERVATION - Govt agencies and leaders supportive of the GGR are increasingly pushing this fertilizer limitation, after a manner taking advantage of a global shortage.

Court in New York, ruled that Rule 2.13, which provided for involuntary transfer to quarenteen camps was unconstitutional. According to court documents, Rule 2.13 says, “[t]he commissioner has unfettered discretion to issue a quarantine or isolation for anyone, even if there is no evidence that person is infected or a carrier of the disease. Further, the commissioner sets the terms, duration, and location of the detention, not an independent magistrate. The judge noted: “Involuntary detention is a severe deprivation of individual liberty, far more egregious than other health safety measures, such as requiring mask wearing at certain venues. Involuntary quarantine may have far-reaching consequences such as loss of income [or employment] and isolation from family.”

OBSERVATION - Rule 2.13 actually was never voted on / approved by the NY legislature, but enacted by EO by the governor. Similar, involuntary confinement order still is on the books in WA state IIRC. New Zealand and Australia implemented similar programs during the main wuhan crisis.
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Wuhan virus -

When Paxlovid came to market in December 2021, studies from Pfizer indicated that only 1-2 percent of patients who took the drug tested positive for Covid again shortly after finishing their dosage.
But other experts say the rapid reinfection rate is closer to 40 per cent, and that Paxlovid can cause this issue by suppressing patients’ immune systems too early, meaning their own bodies are unable to get a handle on COVID.
Dr. Jonathan Reiner, a prominent cardiologist and professor of medicine and surgery at George Washington University Hospital tweeted: ‘I think this was predictable.’ He continued: ‘The prior data suggesting ‘rebound’ Paxlovid positivity in the low single digits is outdates and with BA.5 is likely 20-40% or even higher.’

OBSERVATION - Will Phizer ever be taken to court over the gross fraud it has committed in all aspects of the wuhan dumpste fire? I doubt it.
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Economy -

Analysis of the so-called “Inflation Reduction Act,” shows an increase in corporate income tax as a 15% “minimum corporate tax”. This is a stealth tax on the citizens as most of the increase is passed on to consumers. Raising taxes on businesses and workers during a recession is neve a good idea, unless you want to push the country into a depression.

Hawaiian Gov. David Ige is celebrating the last shipment of coal to Oahu’s last coal burning power plant. He claims that ‘green’ energy is about to replace it. However, nothing is further from the truth as replacement power projects are behind schedule due to unexpected global events with supply chain issues.

OBSERVATION - Second axis by GGR to secure economic downfall. Hawaii is about the face the same mess that Germany and Texas is are currently. Cost ofliving in Hawaii is already sky high, and about to go higher.
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Invasion of Illegals -

Well, now, Biden’s illegal invaders don’t need to worry about trivial things like ‘immigration status’ or ‘legal citizenship’ thanks to a Biden administration mandate that is on pace to “effectively pardon” as many as one million illegals by mid-2024.
This week, leaked documents that were uncovered by The Washington Examiner revealed that federal prosecutors are quietly and quickly dismissing tens of thousands of US immigration court cases against illegal aliens under the direction of the administration’s order to not prosecute illegal border crossings from before the 2020 election.

OBSERVATION - While not granting citizenship or a green card, this permits them to roam freely until caught in another criminal act(s) on citizens.

More Texas counties are declaring an invasion while Abbott yet to formally do so. The patience of the people is wearing thin. When biden finally removes Title 42 (and why he hasn’t done so given the USSC giving him the OK is unknown), that may be enough to push Abbot to declare at a state level an invasion, setting up a show down between Federal and State authority.
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Biden / Harris watch -

A group of Washington Post opinion writers ranked who they believe would be the Democratic nominee for president in 2024 on Friday if President Biden doesn’t run for reelection. They are looking at
1. Harris
2. Buttigieg
3. Newsom
4. Whitmer
5. Ocasio-Cortez

OBSERVATION - With this, rumors are that biden is getting irritated that the party appears to be ready to toss him under the bus
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China -

RUMINT - Pelosi will arrive in Taipei tomorrow night, according to Taiwan news sources..

China’s property crisis continues to grow. China’s banks face mortgage losses of $350 billion in a worst-case scenario as confidence plunges in the nation’s property market.

China plans to collect up to 300 billion yuan (about $44.4 billion) to support real estate developers struggling to finish their projects, while over half a million buyers stopped mortgage payments on their unfinished homes in July. State-run Shanghai E-House Real Estate Research Institute reported on July 18 that there are about 900-billion-yuan (about $133 billion) in mortgages tied to the “rotten tail buildings” in China. Buyers started to refuse to pay mortgages in July. By July 26, victims from 113 cities in 26 provinces listed 321 unfinished building projects on GitHub. They uploaded photos and statements to verify the authenticity of the claims. E-House calculated that there are 1,701 apartments in one project on average, which means about 550,000 buyers can’t move into the homes they purchased.

OBSERVATION - China claims to be placing financial and social stability at the top of its priorities. However, its actions of late have not been helping the situation. Severe economic instability is a threat to Xi getting an unprecedented third term as the head of the country. Could be so severe that he may even gamble an attack on Taiwan before the party congess can determine his fate.

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North/South Korea -

NUKE WATCH on going.

South Korea, the United States and Japan will hold coalition training to detect and track North Korean ballistic missiles in the sea near Hawaii from August 1 to 14.

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Japan -

See North/South Korea above
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Russia -
WAR WATCH - The Battle for Donbas is on - now entering its sixth month of the war since starting on Feb 24th.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russia now essentially controls Luhansk Oblast, Russian forces are now focusing on pushing toward the towns of Siversk, Feroivka and Bakhmut in the Donetsk region

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

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RUMINT -
Vladimir Putin’s health has been brought into question yet again as new footage emerged today of the Russian president seemingly unable to use his right arm. The clip captured the moment Putin, 69, was given a tour of a military museum as part of a weekend of festivities marking Russia’s Navy Day, celebrated on the last Sunday of every July. The Kremlin chief is seen speaking with Ksenia, daughter of defence minister Sergei Shoigu, when mosquitoes begin buzzing around the right side of his face. Putin raises his left arm in an attempt to swat them away while his right arm hangs limply by his side.

Russian Personnel Issues -
- Russia continues to recruit replacements by offering very high wages and bonuses for enlisting.

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Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Hot with scattered thunderstorms over parts of the 10 day forecast period

24 HOUR ROUND UP -
The first ship carrying grain has left a Ukrainian port under a landmark deal with Russia. Turkish and Ukrainian officials say the ship left the southern port of Odesa early on Monday morning local time.
Turkey said the Sierra Leone-flagged vessel, the Razoni, would dock at the port of Tripoli in Lebanon, adding that further shipments were planned over the coming weeks.
The Joint Co-ordination Centre, set up in Istanbul under the deal, said the ship was carrying some 26,000 tonnes of corn and was expected to arrive in Turkish waters for inspection on Tuesday.

Very sluggish 24 hours, with a noticeable drop in activity along most of the fronts.

Kyiv front ——
NSR

Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts - ——
In Sumy Russian army shelled area near Pavlivka village.

Eastern (Kharkiv) front -
Russian forces continued to shell settlements in Kharkiv Oblast border region, northeast of the city proper.

Interesting concentration of artillery on the northwestern edge of the Izyum axis toward Kharkiv. Some analysts think this could be a precursor to a Russian counter attack to try to seize as much of the Oblast as possible. Additional Russian artillery activity at the southern tip of the Izyum axis.

Donetsk Oblast ——
Russian limited artillery fire hit all around the margins of the Slovyansk-Siversk-Bakhmut salient.

Russian attacks continue to be focused on avenues north and south of Bakhmut. Russians have been making very slow progress as it appears that artillery support is still limited.

Scattered artillery northwest of Donetsk related to the ongoing attempted offensive towards Avdiivka.

Crimean Front -
A lot of the artillery that has in the recent past week has dropped off overnight. Split between striking Mykolaiv and the other then northern end of the Kherson LOC near Novovoznesenske, located south of Kryvyi Rih

Russian AD has been active over Sevastopol tonight. Unclear whether it actually intercepted anything or if it was just Russian forces with nervous trigger fingers firing at nothing following yesterday’s home made drone attack on the Black Sea fleet HQ.

Western / Central Ukraine ——
NSR

Russian Territory - ——
NSR

Partisan Resistance ——
NSR

Ammunition / logistical sites hit ——-
Ukrainian forces destroyed a field ammunition depot in Vysoke (about 48km due northeast of Kherson City), and geolocated footage showed another large explosion in northern Kherson Oblast near the Dnipro River.
Ukraine also claimed to have used HIMARS to strike a 40-car train with Russian equipment and personnel in Brylivka (about 47km southeast of Kherson City) on July 30, resulting in 80 dead and 200 wounded Russian servicemen.

Explosions in Skadovsk, Kherson region. Presumably from strikes on an ammunition dump

OUTLOOK ——
More of the same, very anemic Russian attacks with limited artillery support. OSINT Analysts and UK Defense Intelligence suggest that Russia may be shifting forces to address new Ukrainan threats in the south while seeking ways to resume combat tempo in the east.

UK Defense Intelligence suggests that Russia is reallocating a significant number of its forces from the northern Donbas sector to southern Ukraine after Ukrainian military gains. This may explain the significant drop in attacks over the past couple weeks in that region. It will also take a couple of weeks for the withdrawn units to reform and get into place. Russia has likely identified Zaporizhzhia as a vulnerable area that needs troop reinforcement, UK assesses. This reinforces the overall view that Russia is concerned about the threat to its supply lines coming out of Crimea a Ukrainian offensive into Kherson Oblast offers.

Silence on much of the Kherson offensive still clouds analysis. Based on Russian artillery reports, Russia is very concerned about Ukrainan advance southward rather than a direct assault from Mykolaiv. See Russia artillery focused mostly on that area. Ukraine claims major defeats of Russian forces, but with little supporting evidence.

Russian also appears to be struggling with its missile campaign, with numbers of strikes in the central and western portions of the country way down. Missiles seem to be concentrated on Kharkiv and Mykolaiv.

Russian stagnation brings the threat that Ukrainan drones could once again become effective, we’ll have to see. Drones AND HIMARS would be quite the headache for Russian planners.
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Belarus -

According to the General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine, Belarus deploying additional electronic warfare measures in border districts with Ukraine.

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SERBIA - KOSOVO (new) -
What the heck? Take a nap and wake up to a potential new war zone. There has been no love lost between Serbia and Kosovo since the breakup of Yugoslavia. A peace has been in effect since 1999, when the province de facto gained independence after the US-led NATO campaign against the former Yugoslavia.
Russia has supported Serbia, who’s been in the middle of increasing the size of its military and modernizing its equipment - considered a threat to its neighbors.

Following the end of the civil war, many Serbs left Kosovo, but a substantial number remained in the Northern portion of the county. The current crisis on the border appears to stem from attempts by Kosovar authorities not to recognize documents held by Serbs and to stop the use of license plates used by the Serb minority. Kosovo officials prepared to require Serbians visiting Kosovo to replace their Serbian passports with a temporary ID while in the country and to require Serbian license plates in the country to be replaced with Kosovar license plates. The decision was made as a reciprocatory move to similar requirements already issued for Kosovars when they enter Serbia.

Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic condemned the Kosovo government over this issue in the past, saying that Kosovo’s goal is to “expel Serbs, especially from the north of Kosovo and Metohija” . And yesterday went as far as theaten war if Kosovo didn’t reverse its policy.

Kosovo Police announced on Sunday evening that they had closed the Bernjak and Jarinje border crossings to traffic due to roadblocks set up on these roads. The roadblocks were reportedly set up by local Serbs who were protesting measures set to be put in place by Kosovo overnight. There were reports of gun fire at the Benjak checkpoint. Other border crossings are working as normal according to police.

Kosovo government announced in a press release that it decided to postpone the reciprocity decisions on license plates and Serbian issued IDs for one month, until Sept 1, 2022.

The peace has been maintained by NATO forces (KFOR) stationed in Kosovo. “KFOR will take whatever measures are necessary to keep a safe and secure environment in Kosovo at all times, in line with its UN mandate.” Kosovo has no military so to speak, only a police force.

Things between Kosovo and Serbia are going quite similar to the 2021 North Kosovo Crisis, which was sparked by the Governor of Kosovo deciding to reciprocally ban Serbian license plates.

OBSERVATION - Serbia has been flexing its muscles lately, embarking on a significant military buildup. It is allied with both Russia and Turkey. In regards to Ukraine, Serbia has remained relatively neutral and silent.

Putin, who came to power in the wake of the 1999 conflict, still remembers the confrontation between Russian and NATO forces over the Pristina International Airport on June 12, 1999. The defeat of Serbia by US forces in that year was humiliating for Moscow, which had wanted to save face at Pristina.

Any attack by Serbia against Kosovo would involve NATO forces and would likely cause NATO to counter attack in defense of Kosovo. It doesn’t appear, according to more recent reporting, that any conflict will break out at this time. Serbia could be flexing it muscles given that NATO is focused on Ukraine and may not have the ability to inject military forces in a timely manner. It may also be a test of Russian support - given how Moscow too is tied up in the Ukraine.

One more thing, Serbia / Russia appear to be placing some of the blame on Albanian moslems residing in Kosovo. Albania had increased islamic radicalism since it removed the title of the most atheistic country in the world after the break up of the Soviet Union. More ethinic grudges coming to bear in the Balkans

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Iraq -

Military vehicles seen in many areas of Baghdad. As tension mounts between Shia powers (Iran and Sadr).
The commander-in-chief of the Iraq’s Armed forces Kadhimi, declared a security alert and called security forces to cut the vacations and join their units to deploy in Baghdad. Kadhimi also ordered security forces to protect public facilities and embassies.
An official from the Sadrist Movement says “the people will determine the duration of the sit-in inside the parliament.” He also rejected that the Sadrist Movement is willing for talks with the Coordination Framework. Shia Coordination Framework considers today’s statement by Muqtada Sadr as a call for a coup against the constitution.

OBSERVATION - It isn’t looking like Sadr is going to backdown any time soon. Iraqi military at this stage is not going to confront him military, but likely try to contain any violence between Sadr and his Iranian supported opponents.

Turkish military base in Bamarne district of Duhok, Kurdistan Region, came under an artillery shelling. Kurdistan.

OBSERVATION - Though low on the radar, Turkey continues attacks against Iraqi Kurds, in this instance they likely struck back.
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Lebanon -

With the two year anniversary of the massive port explosion being this week, part of the port grain silos complex damaged by the blast collapsed.

Remember, the force of the explosion of fertilizer was close to that of a tactical nuke, and was one of the largest convention explosions ever.

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Weee doggies things have gotten busy. Situation with China/Taiwan is sucking the air out of most to the feeds I look to for info. However, crap is getting real elsewhere in the world.
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Globalism / Great Reset -

OVERALL OBSERVATION - Global increase in chaos has permitted the GGR to advance their agenda on at least two fronts -
1. Pushing the green agenda - green power and gas emmisions
2. Forcing changes in agriculture (farming and ranching) thru withdrawal of fertilizer and absurd controls on things like cow farts.
3. Social credit scoring and purchase controls
Seeing pilot tests all around - an in every instance, they are causing further (o potential) collapse of national economies.

The $369 billion Inflation Reduction Act announced by Senate Democrats this week includes funding to address “enteric methane emissions from ruminants,” including by finding alternatives to the animals’ diets, according to the text of the bill.

OBSERVATION - Cow farts people, millions being spent on cow farts. they want to alter the feed mix or more preferably to them, eliminate cattle/sheep/pig industry altogether.

Millions of Australian households are being warned their power bills will continue to rise after the country’s energy market operator reported record-high costs. In a report on Friday, the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) said wholesale power costs soared in the three months to June. Average prices for the quarter were $264 per megawatt hour. That’s more than triple the $85 per megawatt hour reported during the same period in 2021. Bruce Mountain, the inaugural Director of the Victoria Energy Policy Centre at Victoria University, says Australians should expect to see their power bills double over the coming year.
“Australians haven’t seen a fraction of what’s coming,” he told 7NEWS.com.au.

OBSERVATION - AUSTRALIA is one of the beta test countries for the GGR green energy scam. Just like the other countries that are playing the game, they will be facing power disruption that resembles third world proportions.

MORE OUT OF AUSTRALIA - Australian Senator Malcolm Roberts:
“It is only through the relentless digital stalking of citizens that the Liberal National’s government can micromanage purchasing choices. Businesses are punished with tax while consumers get their credit score docked.”
“When the Liberals tell you that digital identity will make your life easier. Remember, there is no such thing as a free lunch.”

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Economy -

Credit Suisse’s Zoltan Pozsar says that a U.S. recession needs to be deeper and longer to have an impact on inflation. The Federal Reserve may also need to sustain interest rates of 5-6% in order to reduce demand. Otherwise, the risk of a “V-shaped” economic rebound is another inflationary spike. Currently Federal Funds Rate sits at 2.5%, with an aim to achieve 3.5% by year’s end. The Fed’s choice remains between pushing the U.S. economy into a deep recession or risking higher inflation.(FO)

OBSERVATION - In spite of the glowing report on how well our economy is doing - presented by democrats - it has been deeply damaged by wuhan related shutdowns and aftershocks. I view with skepticism the hokum being pushed out there. Reminds me too much of ‘transitory’ inflation and more recently ‘transitional’ economic productions.
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Invasion of Illegals -

Continue to laugh at the mayor of DC -whining about the influx of illegals while forgetting she declared the city a sanctuary city for them not too long ago.
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CW2/Domestic violence -

Recent police shootings in Portland have placed the police force on edge as Antifa elements have threatened retaliation.
Portland - this is what happens when you let thugs run the city.

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Strategic Activity / Deployments -

Numerous naval and air force adjustments to cover pelosi’s trip.
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China -

Pelosi is expected to touch down in Taiwan some time this morning. Latest word is that her aircraft is approaching the island from the east, avoiding the Straits of Taiwan.

In response, China appears to be positioning itself to take further steps in the coming days, which could include military provocations. One of the more obvious actions include China’s Liaoning aircraft carrier left Qingdao on July 31, and the Shandong left Sanya on August 01. Reports of a considerable numbers of Chinese military vehicles and equipment positioning near ports opposite Taiwan. Other reporters of fighter jets have been heard all morning in not only Fujian, but Zhejiang too.

China said it was conducting military exercises in the waters off its southern and northeastern coasts this week.

Taiwanese military to enter a heightened state of readiness for three days starting today. Several Taiwanese government websites have reportedly been DDoS’ed per Taiwan’s Presidential Office.

The USS Reagan CSG and the USS Tripoli AAG are positioned near Taiwan

OBSERVATION - China will rattle the sabers on this one - though dangerous as one false move could trigger a conflict. Its options are limited. If it were to launch some kind of attack, at this stage it would have to limit itself to air and missile strikes. Such would turn global opinion against the country and not perform well with the Chinese hardcore either. Another option could be the seizure of one or more of the out islands, though pelosi will be long gone before that can be organized.
OTOH - China is providing the US and Taiwan with a wealth of data as China mobilizes military forces. I think chinese leaders forgot about that component of saber rattling.

In the near term - I expect no serious events. China isn’t prepared to go to war - yet. In the longer term, I think China may have stepped up their schedule to invade Taiwan. This kind of reminds me of the initial Russian force build up in 2021 which later morphed into the pre invasion build up. An invasion will take an abundance of naval vessels to execute. The common sequence would see China attacking Taiwan initially with aircraft and missiles - to target anti air and anti ship sites, preparing the battlefield while loading the transport ships.
Precursor indicators is the assembly of a large number of transports - not currently seen by intelligence.
War on Taiwan is coming, now faster than before.
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North/South Korea -

NUKE WATCH on going.

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Russia -
WAR WATCH - The Battle for Donbas is on - now entering its sixth month of the war since starting on Feb 24th.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russia now essentially controls Luhansk Oblast, Russian forces are now focusing on pushing toward the towns of Siversk, Feroivka and Bakhmut in the Donetsk region

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

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The U.S. has assessed that Ukraine did not attack a prison in a Russian-occupied eastern region of Donetsk with American-made HIMARS rocket launchers last week, directly contradicting Russian claims, according to two U.S. officials.
Numerous other nations have come to the same conclusion.

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Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Hot with scattered thunderstorms over parts of the 10 day forecast period

24 HOUR ROUND UP -
Fighting towards the town of Bakhmut overnight increased overnight as well as further south towards Avdiivka. This is the most serious and concentrated Russian assault in a couple weeks.

Kyiv front ——
NSR

Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts - ——
In Sumy Russian army shelled a few small towns near the border.

Eastern (Kharkiv) front -
Russian forces continued to shell settlements in Kharkiv Oblast border region, northeast of the city proper.

Russian artillery and airstrikes continue to hit the western and southern margins of the Izyum salient.

Donetsk Oblast ——
Russian limited artillery fire hit all around the margins of the Slovyansk-Siversk-Bakhmut salient.
Russian has launched a significant ground assault on the northern and southern avenues to Bakhmut. A second significant attack is occurring further south towards Andiivka. Fighting continues near the landfill of the Avdiivka quarry. The Butovka mine shaft area is under RU control. Pisky - still under Ukr control, Maryinka the same. Non-stop clashes in the area.

Still rumors of redeployment of Russian forces from the northern side of the Slovyansk-Siversk-Bakhmut salient to southern Ukraine, while at the same time there are indicators that Russian forces may once again try to gain the momentum out of Izyum.

Crimean Front -
More Russian artillery along the LOC of the Kherson Oblast border, most of it concentrated south of Kryvyi Rih.

Western / Central Ukraine ——
NSR

Russian Territory - ——
NSR

Partisan Resistance ——
NSR

Ammunition / logistical sites hit ——-
Explosions reported in Kadiivka
Reports of explosions in Nova Kakhovka
Explosions reported in Kherson

OUTLOOK ——
It looks like Russian has massed enough artillery and troops to try to push through the southern margin of the Slovyansk-Siversk-Bakhmut salient towards Bakhmut. However their progress is slow and costly. Ukrainan troops have had a lot of time to prepare their defenses and Russia continues to lack the artillery support it had just a month ago. Same goes for the attacks towards Andiivka, where Russians have to push through much better established defenses.

Interesting scenario ongoing. Russia appears to be trying to initiate an offensive out of Izyum while just to the south Russian forces are being redeployed to defend Kherson. Intelligence analysts indicate that different army groups control these area. Independent actions may imply a regression to a conflict for resources. Also may suggest that the Izyum attack may be used to divert Ukraine from counter attacks in the weakening northern Slovyansk-Siversk-Bakhmut salient.
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SERBIA - KOSOVO (new) -

Relative calm overnight though tensions remain high.

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Iran -

Iran has started pumping uranium gas into hundreds of IR-1s & IR-6 centrifuges as part of its plan to reach uranium enrichment capacity of at least 190,000 SWU, the spokesman for Iran’s atomic energy organization said, adding that IAEA has been informed of the move

OBSERVATION - Starting the last step that can lead to the production of weapons grade uranium.

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Iraq -

Protests by rival Shiite camps in Baghdad ended without significant incident, but no end to the broader crisis in sight. New & uncertain phase in which Sadr tries to dominate by excluding rivals, but to what end. His base increasing disillusioned at electoral participation.
Al-Kazemi calls for a national dialogue by forming a committee that includes representatives from all parties to develop a road map for a solution

OBSERVATION - No end in sight in the short term. This fight has been brewing for over a year.
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Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan -

The US has killed the leader of al-Qaeda, Ayman al-Zawahiri, in a drone strike in Afghanistan, President Joe Biden has confirmed.
He was killed in a counter-terrorism operation carried out by the CIA in the Afghan capital Kabul on Sunday.
He and Osama Bin Laden plotted the 9/11 attacks together, and he was one of America’s most wanted terrorists.

OBSERVATION - Good action, though I loath the thought of biden getting any credit for it.
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Armenia/Azerbaijan -

Azerbaijan Ministry of Defense - The information published in the Armenian press is false. The information published in the Armenian press about the Azerbaijani Army units firing in the direction of illegal Armenian armed groups in the territory of Azerbaijan, where Russian peacekeepers are temporarily stationed, is false, provocative and misleading.
Reports that one Armenian serviceman wounded as result of clashes with Azerbaijani troops in Nagorno-Karabakh.

OBSERVATION - The friction between these two countries has increased since the start of Russian pullout to support the Ukraine war. Azeri elements trying to take advantage of the power vacuum.
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Smoke clearing on the Chinese response to pelosi.
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Globalism / Great Reset -

Australia is poised to purge headfirst into a new round of destructive green energy policies. The new Australian Parliament appear to be planning to pass 40 new bills.
Probably the worst bill in Green-Albo’s legislative avalanche is “The Climate Change Bill.” This dreadful piece of legislation gives the government the ability to “ratchet up” green targets without new parliamentary approval but makes it difficult for future governments to ratchet back these targets.

OBSERVATION - Australia is one of the beta-test nations being used by the GGR to push their agenda on people. “Climate change” is the big buzzword. We already see similar precursors here in the US, but with less govt support at the federal level.

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Wuhan virus -

Much of the wind has been taken out of the news feed by monkey pox (SMH). More general posts out there linking the jab to major medical conditions such as cancers and suppressed natural immunity.

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Economy -

After hitting a peak in March, the number of job openings continues to fall, a potential indicator that the labor market could be slowing down.
The number of job openings tumbled by 605,000, to 10.7 million, in June, falling short of the market estimate of 11 million. The rate of job openings dropped to 6.6 percent, from 6.9 percent.

OBSERVATION - Softening of the job market may reflect first shock waves of an incoming recession as companies look to trim staff without having to lay off.

Skyrocketing mortgage rates and inflation in the United States have caused the housing market to tumble in June, allowing historically high home prices to stabilize and unit stock to grow, according to a report from mortgage data analytics firm Black Knight.
The rise in housing prices rapidly slowed in June, according to the report, though prices are at higher than they were 12 months ago.

OBSERVATION - The combination of high home prices and high mortgage rates will continue to cause the market to buck over the near term.

Gasoline prices continue to slowly drop across the country. This is not based on a sudden increase in supplies, but more likely a foreshock of the recession. Prices stated dropping on anticipation of a drop in demand once it became clear that the US economy was headed into a recession and demand would naturally drop.
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Invasion of Illegals -

Texas to continue sending illegals to DC and other liberal cities who in the past made themselves out to be ‘sanctuary cities’.

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Biden / Harris watch -

Two powerful House Democrats from New York each declined Tuesday to say that President Joe Biden should run for the White House again in 2024.
Reps. Jerry Nadler and Carolyn Maloney, two of the party’s establishment liberals who chair powerful committees and are competing for a Manhattan-area House seat, shied away from supporting the president when they were asked in a televised debate whether Biden should seek a second term.
Nadler, who chairs the House Judiciary committee, said: “Too early to say. Doesn’t serve the purpose of the Democratic Party to, to deal with that until after the midterms.”

OBSERVATION - biden’s days in the WH are numbered. If the ‘rats loose big, I expect him to be forced out one way or the other with harris potentially as well. , to be replaced by someone more ‘electable’
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CW2/Domestic violence -

The IRS has stockpiled five million rounds of ammunition and spent $725,000 on bullets this year, according to Florida Congressman Matt Gaetz, who has introduced a bill to block future ammunition purchases by the agency.
OpenTheBooks.com, a nonprofit government watchdog group, released a report called “The militarization of the U.S. Executive Agencies” in December 2020, detailing how agencies that people wouldn’t normally associate with law enforcement were stockpiling weapons and ammunition. The Environmental Protection Agency owns 600 guns. At the same time, special agents at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration are equipped with machine guns and AR15s. Even the Smithsonian Institution employed 620-armed “special agents,” up from zero officers in 2008, according to the report.

OBSERVATION - Just who is the Smithsonian looking to get into a fight with? Alphabet agencies started to amass arms and ammo under 0bama, hit what appears to be a lull under Trump and now is back at it full speed ahead. Keep in context that the left is trying to disarm citizens, and the renewed trend is concerning.

More evidence that our govt is at war with the red areas of the country. Information obtained through a FBI whistleblower, lists numerous symbols, historic references, common phrases, and military networks that Militia Violent Extremists may use or associate with.
“The following symbols are used by Anti-Government or Anti-Authority Violent Extremists, specifically Militia Violent Extremists. MVE symbols are often found on propaganda, online platforms, memes, merchandise, group logos, flags, tattoos, uniforms, etc. Widespread use of symbols and quotes from American history, especially the Revolutionary War, exists within MVE networks, Historic and contemporary military themes are common for MVE symbols,” the FBI internal document reads.
Included in these symbols is “2A,” with the FBI saying, “[Militia Violent Extremists] justify their existence with the Second Amendment, due to their mention of a ‘well regulated Militia,’ as well as the right to bear arms,” “Warrior Culture: Military themes both historical and contemporary,” with the examples of Spartans and Valhalla, and “MolonLabe,” which translates to “come and take it” from Greek.
The document also lists a number of historic symbols, including the Gadsden Flag, the Liberty Tree, the Betsy Ross Flag, as well as Revolutionary War imagery from the American Revolution that gave the nation its freedom.

OBSERVATION - Of course, absent from the FBI’s list are the membership of Antifa, BLM, radical islam, etc that have done REAL violence. The FBI has placed a target on over 1/3 of the country, laying the foundation for a potential ‘crackdown’ on red country patriots.

Antifa / leftist observers are noting doctrinal development of the use of firearms for any future revolution. The discussion focused on the use of handguns over rifles because of the ease of concealment. Observers note that this is a development based upon experiences of the French Resistance during Nazi occupation and the Irish Republican Army during the Troubles.

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POLITICAL FRONT -

Primaries in many states yesterday. Never trumper candidates not faring well. Potential voting shenanigans (potential mail in ballot fraud) in AZ almost turned the results to a never trumper. See multiple FR threads covering the votes.

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Domestic / International Terror (modified)-

The US has urged its citizens to be vigilant against possible anti-American violence abroad following the killing of al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri.
His death could prompt al-Qaeda supporters or other linked terror groups to target US facilities and personnel, said the state department.

Had to modify the section with the growing threat of terrorism to US entities around the world.

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Strategic Activity / Deployments -

A lot of US assets in the Taiwan area. US intelligence assets likely to stay to monitor the Chinese exercises.

_________________________________

China -

Situation is fluid and changes happening quickly.

U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi left Taiwan on Wednesday after pledging solidarity and hailing its democracy.

Pelosi’s trip caused China and Xi to lose face - bigly - in that the threats didn’t keep her away. What followed were largely military movements of the beaches (much to the bemusement of beach goers) and streets. No evidence of PLA forces boarding landing craft or other indicator of an impending amphibious attack.

21 PLA aircraft did their almost daily incursion into the Taiwan ADZ. The US had a lot of figters in the air, with at least 8 F-15s launched from Japan to supplement those in the air from the USS Reagan and USS Tripoli.

Perhaps the most significant development was the Chinese military announcement of “military exercises and training activities including live-fire drills” in multiple areas around Taiwan between Thursday and Saturday. Those current declared exercise areas include portions of Taiwanese sovereign territorial waters. Those current declared exercise areas include portions of Taiwanese sovereign territorial waters.
Map link below

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FZKkOTRXwAM3YUi?format=jpg&name=medium

These exercise areas surround much of the island and in many aspect serve to be a ‘soft’ blockade. Reuters reports that the Taiwan’s Ministry of Defense warning that the China’s maneuvers have reached the point of blocking Taiwan’s air and sea space. Heightened alert/watch underway due to the Chinese announcement that directly over the island - Rough translation: it will conduct joint air and sea exercises north, southwest and southeast of Taiwan and “ordinary” (常导) fire power test launches *east* of Taiwan (ie, over Taiwan)
This would be unprecedented.

OBSERVATION - Xi has been placed in a difficult position - trying to fend off an economic meltdown while trying to appear strong prior to the communist party congress where he hopes to be ‘elected’ for a third term.
This event has likely moved China’s timetable up on the invasion. I am suspecting that China will move on the island before the end of biden’s term. In the interim, two other likely shorter term actions may be made.

First, a possible Chinese seizure of the islands of Quemoy and Matsu, officially known as the Kinmen and Lienchiang Counties, respectively, are groups of islands located directly off the coast of mainland Communist China, but are under the administration of the Republic of China, Taiwan. Taiwan is unable to effectively protect them. See map link below.

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/wp-content/uploads/Taiwan-Islands.jpg

This would require far less in resources and equipment and easier to pull off. It would go a long ways to recover stature lost for the pelosi trip.

Along the same measure, China may attempt to seize the Japan’s Senkakus and Nansei islands. At this stage, such an attempt would likely be closer linked to the assault on Taiwan itself, and bringing Japan tighter into the scrum may not be in China’s best interests at the moment.

Second are more ‘exercises’ surrounding the island that can be used to blockade the island without having to have forces physically present. That is what is making the current observation of the results and effectiveness of these exercises this week important. If China sees that they can impact ingress/egress from the Island, they may institute more in the coming months, disrupting the Taiwan economy and eventually leading up to a potential physical blockade.

Xi cannot afford to have more high level western officials visit Taiwan in the future and will continue to threaten and exert all influence it has to stop all comers. Pelosi’s visit has shown China doesn’t have the resolve currently to physically stop visits short of physical interdiction. The region is now more dangerous than ever and China will be less restrained in the future so as not to lose face again.
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North/South Korea -

NUKE WATCH on going.

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Russia -
WAR WATCH - The Battle for Donbas is on - now in its sixth month of the war since starting on Feb 24th.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russia now essentially controls Luhansk Oblast, Russian forces are now focusing on pushing toward the towns of Siversk, Feroivka and Bakhmut in the Donetsk region

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

********

RUMINT -
Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu claimed that Russian forces have destroyed six US-provided HIMARS and other Western-supplied military equipment in Ukraine in a conference call with the Russian Armed Forces leadership on August 2. Photographs released by Russia show destroyed vehicles , none of which were HIMARS.

Iran may have sent UAVs to Russia in exchange for training mechanics to maintain Su-35 aircraft that are also believed to be in the process of being exchanged for the UAVs.

Logistics -
- Ukraine has taken out earlier this week a major railroad from Crimea to Kherson. It will be many days before Russian forces can effect repairs and continued operations questionable as Ukraine can strike again at any time.

Russian Personnel Issues -
- Russian federal subjects (regions) are facing continuing challenges to raise volunteer battalions. Many are being filled out by those into their 60’s and 30 day’s of training won’t likely prepare them for the war. Enlistment bonuses are increasing however, enlistees are reportedly complaining that they have not received their promised enlistment bonuses and post-training period payments. Some see this as an attempt to prevent Russian recruits from obtaining the enlistment payments and deserting prior to deploying to Ukraine.

Economic Impact -
- The United States slapped more sanctions on Russian oligarchs on Tuesday

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Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Hot with scattered thunderstorms over parts of the 10 day forecast period

24 HOUR ROUND UP -
Vicious fighting in and around Avdiivka while Russia continues to try to solve its logistical issues caused by HIMARS and reposition forces to repulse a growing Ukraninan offensive in the west.

Kyiv front ——
NSR

Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts - ——
In Sumy Russian army continued shelling small towns near the border.

Eastern (Kharkiv) front -
Russian forces continued to shell settlements in Kharkiv Oblast border region, northeast of the city proper.
Russian launched at least 2 S-300 missiles at Kharkiv from Belgorod.

Scattered Russian artillery on the southern end of the Izyum axis and some minor ground action.

Donetsk Oblast ——
Russian limited artillery fire hit all around the margins of the Slovyansk-Siversk-Bakhmut salient.
Russian ground forces pressing an attack on the northeast side of Bakhmut.

Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks northwest of Slovyansk and east of Siversk.

Vicious fighting in and around Avdiivka where Russian forces attempted a frontal attack from occupied Donetsk Oblast territory rather than waiting for Ukrainian forces to withdraw from their prepared defensive positions as a result of Russian envelopment operations northeast of the settlement. Reports that Ukrainan forces were able to repel the assault. Russian forces had previously attempted to break through Avdiivka’s northeastern outskirts but have not made significant progress in months.

Crimean Front -
Heavy shelling reported in the area of Chornobaivka near Kherson city this evening. Footage on Telegram shows Russian air defense active shooting at something.

Russian shelling in Mykolaiv hit a supermarket, a pharmacy and residential buildings. Additional Russian artillery fire hitting the general Kherson Oblast border with concentration in the north as well as opposite of Mykolaiv, suggesting these are the areas of Ukrainan offensive actions.

Kherson Oblast Administration Head Dmytro Burtiy reported that Ukrainian forces liberated seven more unnamed settlements in Kherson Oblast. Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces continued to target Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) and positions in Kherson Oblast, setting conditions for a counteroffensive in the region.

Reports continue of Russian units being redeployed to address the Ukrainian offensive in the south.

Western / Central Ukraine ——
Missile attack in Chervonohrad district of Lviv region. Russian forces reportedly launched eight Kh-101 (Kh-555) missiles in the direction of central, southern, and western Ukrainian Oblasts with 7 claimed to have been intercepted by Ukraine ADA.

Russian Territory - ——
NSR

Partisan Resistance ——
The Ukrainian Resistance Center reported on August 2 that Ukrainian civilians chased 40 Russian doctors out of abandoned homes in which they tried to settle in Berislav, Kherson Oblast.

Ukrainian partisans set a fire in a field near Russian-occupied Bezimenne, about 20km east of Mariupol, successfully damaged Russian military equipment at a nearby military base.

Ammunition / logistical sites hit ——-
- In Chornobaevka, the outskirts of Kherson, explosions again. Locals report that one of the explosions was one of the loudest of all time.
- Explosions reported at oil depot in Makiivka.
- Geolocated footage showed that Ukrainian forces struck Russian ammunition depots in Arkhanhel’s’ke and Starosillya, both situated on the T2207 GLOC in northwestern Kherson Oblast and the eastern Inhulets River bank.

OUTLOOK ——
Russia is furiously attempting to seize the Avdiivka in an effort in part to push Ukrainan artillery out of range from Donetsk. This is the most significant attack that the separatists have launched of far in the war. Ukraine has given up some gains, but recent attempt by Russian forces to attack Ukrainan positions via a frontal attack has exposed them to the meat grinder. The fight for Avdiivka may well last for weeks and drain resources from other locations.

Battle for Bakhmut expected to run for weeks more as well. Russia appears to have hit a manpower shortage and is unable to support the attacks in the Slovyansk-Siversk portion of the salient. Impending Ukranian offensive in the west is drawing off forces and HIMAR strikes depleting and complicating resupply efforts.

Near term - Russia will continue desperately hunt for HIMARS, and push the fight against Avdiivka and Bakhmut while trying to prevent/mitigate the Ukrainian offensive into Kherson.

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Belarus -

Belarus “fully shares the concern of our strategic partner, the People’s Republic of China , regarding Washington’s destructive actions aimed at interfering in China’s internal affairs and escalating the situation”

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SERBIA - KOSOVO (new) -

Situation remains tense, but calm
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Armenia/Azerbaijan -

Renewed fighting in Karabakh as Azerbaijani forces reportedly attempt to advance near Lachin corridor, region’s only link to Armenia. Karabakh Armenian side reports 7 injured. Azerbaijani side using mortars and UAVs.

OBSERVATION - Resumption of fighting threatens to destabilize the region and Russia may be forced to divert forces to aid Armenia that they need in Ukraine. Iran and Turkey will be in it up to their necks if things blow up.
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Scientists say the earth is spinning faster - believe it as global chaos increase as well.

________________________________

Globalism / Great Reset -

In Madagascar, citizens are protesting incessant power cuts and soaring fuel and food prices.

OBSERVATION - The GGR goals are hitting the smaller nations the hardest. Not surprising given that they lack a sufficient foundation against change that larger nations like America has. But just because some claim the same can’’t happen here , don’t believe it. It is already doing so in ways surpassed by the media and blocked out by our normalcy bias.

Germany has restarted and connected a coal fired power plant back onto the grid because of the anticipated shortages of natural gas this winter. Economy Minister Robert Habeck, a leading member of the German Greens, has described the decision to turn back on coal plants as “bitter” but a necessary evil.

OBSERVATION - This will put pressure on the GGR advocates, as it is evident the ‘green ‘ power alternatives won’t do the job. However, other countries facing similar energy crunches blindly push on the path to green destruction.

Senators Jim Risch (R-ID) and Chris Coons (D-DE) introduced the “Securing Allies Food in Emergencies Act”, or SAFE Act, in response to a “looming global food crisis”. In part, the bill directs the U.S. Agency for International Development to deliver a food security strategy to the House and Senate Foreign Relations Committees.

OBSERVATION - Analysis of the bill indicates that it provides to USAID to prioritize the procurement of U.S. agricultural products when local or regional food procurement is impossible. We’ve previously warned that the U.S. government may direct the sale or export of American agricultural production to “strategically important” regions experiencing food shortages, at the risk of food availability for Americans. (FO)
This shadows GGR controls of resources from energy to food.

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Wuhan virus -

UK Office for National Statistics (ONS), published data on deaths by vaccination status in England up to 31st May 2022. The report shows that the Fully Vaccinated account for 9 in every 10 COVID-19 Deaths over the past 12 Months.

OBSERVATION - These are raw numbers and subject to a lot of wrangling about their significance. However, they match similar data trends and studies from other places around the world.
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Economy -

Oil tumbled to below $91 a barrel, closing at lowest level since before Russia invaded Ukraine.

OBSERVATION - The price is reflecting the decrease in global demand - a precursor indicating a global economic slowdown (recession). Stability of supply is still precarious and a crisis could cause prices to spike at any moment.

In an attempt to prevent getting caught in a recession with big payrolls, numerous companies are beginning to aggressively down size, in addition to stopping further hiring.

Other indicators of a global wide recession come from AP Moller-Maersk, the Danish shipping and logistics company — one of the world’s largest and a broad barometer for global trade — who said it loaded 7.4% fewer containers onto ships in the second quarter when compared to the same period in 2021, prompting it to revise the full-year outlook for its container business. Further predicted a slowdown in global shipping container demand this year amid weakening consumer confidence and supply chain congestion.

Business activity in the U.S. services sector declined at the fastest pace since May of 2020, a sign that the economy could be in a recession already or teetering on the edge. S&P Global Market Intelligence said Wednesday that its index of services activity registered 47.3 in July, up slightly from the earlier released ‘flash’ estimate of 47.0, but down from 52.7 in June. This is the fourth straight decline in the seasonally adjusted index which had seen steep expansions earlier in the year.

More economic shockwaves inbound. Alignable’s July Rent Report is being released right now, based on a poll that concluded this morning, conducted among 3,553 small business owners.
* The recovery rate for small businesses is at an all-time low of just 25%. That means 75% of small business owners have yet to earn the same monthly revenues they generated prior to COVID.
* 46% of SMBs say they’re paying higher rent now than they did six months ago.
* 45% of restaurants (up 7% from June) & 44% of retailers (up 9% from June) couldn’t afford their July rent.
* In fact, for restaurants & retailers, their rent delinquency rates in July were the highest they’ve been since the end of 2021.
* 40% of salons couldn’t make rent in July, up 15% from 25% in June.
* 48% of small businesses in transportation didn’t have enough cash to pay July’s rent.
* The overall rent delinquency rate for U.S. SMBs is 34%, just 1% shy of 2022’s highest rate (35% in June).

Officials at the Federal Reserve are warning that they may take a more aggressive approach if interest rate hikes are unable to combat inflation. Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said they “might have to rethink the [current] path” and warned of the possibility that “we have a lot more [inflation and interest rate hikes] ahead of us.”

OBSERVATION - Fed is talking about more aggressively raising interest rates, which will cause further economic slowing. The Fed is signaling that the recession will worsen until they’re able to bring down inflation, which has been a theme in this report since last year. The current federal funds rate is 2.5%, and Fed officials say the neutral rate may need to be revised higher than 3.5%.

OVERALL OBSERVATION - Redefinition of what a recession is will not change the consequences of a recession - you just can’t put enough lipstick on that pig. Too many other indicators beyond GDP are in the red zone.

______________________________

Invasion of Illegals -

USSC has certified its decision against Title 42, completely freeing biden to remove it and open the flood gates of illegals into the country..

______________________________

Biden / Harris watch -

Biden can’t shake Covid. He’s coughing and in isolation.

___________________________

CW2/Domestic violence -

On Tuesday night, the Michigan Republican party was forced to cancel an election night watch party after a staffer reported being allegedly threatened outside the main office in Lansing.

OBSERVATION - Expect threats and actual violence to increase as the midterms get closer. Antifa et al WILL use the same violence tactics it did in 2019/2020 by targeting post-political rallies to attack attendees on their way back to their cars, with even fewer police available to protect them - if they choose to.

Wall Street Journal writes that “The IRS is About to Go Beast Mode” about the particulars of its $80 billion expansion of the IRS, which is six times the size of the tax agency’s current $12.6 billion budget. The bill earmarks $45.6 billion for “enforcement,” including “litigation,” “criminal investigations,” “investigative technology,” “digital asset monitoring” and a new fleet of tax-collector cars. The result will be far more audits, civil suits and criminal referrals.
The main targets will by necessity be the middle- and upper-middle class because that’s where the money is. The Joint Committee on Taxation, Congress’s official tax scorekeeper, says that from 78% to 90% of the money raised from under-reported income would likely come from those making less than $200,000 a year. Only 4% to 9% would come from those making more than $500,000.

OBSERVATION - Another axis of attack on the American people, and most likely be directed against conservatives. IRS has already gotten away with illegal discrimination against conservative groups in the past, now will join up with DOJ most likely going after those ‘domestic terror’ categories. A 6 time INCREASE in a budget of such a malignant alphabet agency is scary. Also not the declared “digital asset monitoring” - they are coming after cryptocurrencies.

Antifa has been busy being violent in some of its home base territories. In Berkeley, Antifa attacked construction workers at a campus project to create more student housing. University officials stopped construction. In Atlanta, Antifa confronted more contractors constructing a law enforcement facility in a area claimed as their own sanctuary.

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Domestic / International Terror (modified)-

Red flags are starting to be raised warning that Iran may direct its proxies to attack American and partner targets in the Middle East in the coming weeks. Iran is sensing weakness in America and will strike if it benefits its goals and purposes. Most likely it will be an Iranian proxy - go give Iran some space against any US retaliatory strike.
US State Department has issued a warning that Iranian agents may attack US interest around the globe.

_____________________________________

Strategic Activity / Deployments -

USS America (LHA-6) has departed Sasebo, Japan, a defense official confirmed to USNI News on Thursday. It is believed to be headed south to the Taiwan region. USS Ronald Reagan (CVN-76), its escorts and Carrier Air Wing 5 and its escorts are underway in the Philippine Sea. USS Tripoli (LHA-7), which has embarked with up to 20 F-35Bs, is off Okinawa.

OBSERVATION - All three in position if China gets too froggy over Taiwan.

USAF Cobra Ball aircraft are on station east of Taiwan, monitoring Chinese missile launches as well as numerous antisubmarine aircraft.
_________________________________

China -

Overnight, 11 ballistic missiles into waters surrounding Taiwan as part of a series of military exercises, the Ministry of Defense in Taipei said in a Thursday statement. According to the MoD, the PLARF fired 11 DF-15 short-range ballistic missiles into waters to the northeast and southwest of Taiwan.

Chinese released videos of the launches and claim they impacted in target zones on the eastern side of Taiwan. This would indicate some of the missiles overflew the island, but has NOT BEEN CONFIRMED. The Defence Ministry strongly condemns and continues to be on high alert.

UPDATE ! It appears from analysis that at least one missile crossed over a part of the island. See map link below

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FZUcXvJXwAUyigL?format=png&name=900x900

Japan has said that for the first time, 5 Chinese ballistic missiles landed within Japan’s Exclusive Economic Zone. Japan has lodge a formal complaint against the Chinese govt.

Taiwan says China also sent 27 warplanes into its air defense zone yesterday.

The military drills around Taiwan have forced ships to reroute in one of the world’s busiest waterways.
Almost half of the global container fleet and 88% of the world’s largest ships passed through the Taiwan Strait this year, according to Bloomberg. The days-long disruptions are expected to have an impact on supply chains and result in delays to global shipping.

Taiwan’s Taoyuan International Airport said on Wednesday that more than 50 international flights have been cancelled on Thursday due to China’s live-fire drills. These included 26 arriving flights to Taiwan, and 25 flights departing from Taoyuan airport.

OBSERVATION - Two components to China’s actions over the past 24 hours or so. First is to intimidate Taiwan while impressing the Chinese with their military capabilities. This is important for China/Xi to save face.

The second and more serious is that their actions are now conforming to a longer term effort to essentially lay siege to the island. As noted above, the exercise ‘closures’ have had an immediate affect on air and sea traffic to/from the island. This kind of a blockade is a low risk means to stress Taiwan without putting assets into harms way. As i said yesterday, China will closely assess the impacts that these closures will have on Taiwanese access by sea and air.

Given the immediate success of the closures, it is likely that China will continue to close off air/sea lanes with more ‘exercise’ areas - the soft blockade tactic. It is also being assess by some that China is accelerating it plans to capture Taiwanese administered islands near the China coastline. These are low hanging fruit so to speak and would offer little resistance, but give the Chinese military amphibious practice. See yesterday’s post for a map of these island. This would give Xi a ‘win’ in the short term.

This would set up the next phase - more direct blockade of Taiwan ,mostly likely combined with Chinese capture of Taiwan and Japanese administered Islands. This will be a big gamble as such as move would be the equivalent of a direct attack on Taiwan and Japan. The Chinese operation would be complex but be a reasonable dress rehearsal for an eventual direct assault. Plus gives it more bases surrounding the island to attack from while offering protection from forces coming to Taiwan’s aid. China would hope that by this stage, Taiwan would surrender, eliminating a forced assault on the island. According to Taiwan’s Economy Ministry, the island nation maintains a natural gas stockpile that would last 10-11 days, enough crude oil to last 146 days, and enough coal to last 39 days.

Timeline now becomes critical. First, the continued , soft blockade of the island, next observing preparations to assault and capture the closer islands - China is capable of doing so within the next weeks at the earliest. The expansion of the conflict to islands closer to Taiwan will take longer to prepare for as logistics and transport will be necessary and observable to Taiwan and supporters, looking still several months out at the earliest.

Finally, a forced assault on the main island would be a massive undertaking, but given the political window of biden’s remaining time in office, I would expect to see them attempt this as early as 2024.

Only time will tell.

On the other side of the China coin - a poll conducted by the Caixin news service on Monday found China’s economy foundering as the second half of 2022 began, with slower manufacturing activity, higher unemployment, and a depressed real estate market. China’s weakening economy reduced its demand for oil, combining with downbeat manufacturing data from other countries to bring oil prices down by four percent. Caixin’s poll found that Chinese manufacturing activity slowed considerably in July — or possibly even contracted — after the latest round of coronavirus lockdowns ended in June and produced an exuberant surge in production. Other economic surveys found the Chinese real estate market slipping by 33 percent after an 89-percent surge from the end of lockdowns in June, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growing by only 0.4 percent in the second quarter, and consumers nervous despite a modest 3.1 percent post-lockdown gain in retail spending.

OBSERVATION - Xi is in a pickle. The easy way out is to rally the country behind a war to capture Taiwan, distracting the people from their economic woes. The ‘unintended’ consequences of a war would likely make the economic situation even worse. Making matters worse, China’s troubled real estate giant, the China Evergrande Group, did not deliver its promised $300 billion restructuring plan over the weekend, analysts told CNBC the loss of confidence in real estate may create a “negative feedback loop” that drags down the rest of the Chinese economy.
____________________________________

North/South Korea -

NUKE WATCH on going.

__________________________________

Japan -

Japan has said that for the first time, 5 Chinese ballistic missiles landed within Japan’s Exclusive Economic Zone. Complaints lodged with China.

OBSERVATION - Japan has already become awoke at Chinese aggression and in the face that China may attempt to capture Japanese controlled island in the vicinity of Taiwan will only throw gasoline on Japan’s reawakens military.
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Russia -
WAR WATCH - The Battle for Donbas is on - now in its sixth month of the war since starting on Feb 24th.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russia now essentially controls Luhansk Oblast, Russian forces are now focusing on pushing toward the towns of Siversk, Feroivka and Bakhmut in the Donetsk region

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

********
Russian Personnel Issues -
- Unconfirmed reports that Russian military leadership have ordered the establishment of “places of rest” for Russian servicemembers within occupied Ukraine to enable some leave for Russian forces without letting those forces go back to Russian territory, where they could more easily desert.
____________________________________

Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Hot with scattered thunderstorms over parts of the 10 day forecast period

24 HOUR ROUND UP -

There are hardly any fires in Ukraine controlled territory over the past 24 hours indicated on FIRMS maps. This suggests significantly reduced Russian artillery fire (a qualitative assessment with not all artillery or missile bursts resulting in a fire) from previous periods.

Intense fighting in the Avdiivka area has taped off but expected to resume.

Follow up on the massacre of Ukraine prisoners where Russia claimed a HIMARS rocket hit the , western intelligence sources and govts say the evidence is that the deaths were Russian caused. Satellite image show damage associated with a fire, and not any kind of rocket or artillery impact. It is believed that Russian forces likely set fire to the prison complex holding Ukrainian POWs in occupied Donetsk Oblast but blamed Ukraine for an alleged precision strike using Western-supplied military equipment, likely to deter additional Western military support to Ukraine.

Kyiv front ——
NSR

Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts - ——
In Sumy Russian army continued shelling small towns near the border.

Eastern (Kharkiv) front -
Russian artillery primarily focused north of Kharkiv, though a the suburb of Nemyshlyansky had artillery hit a residential area, killing several civilians.

Russian forces continued limited unsuccessful ground attacks in the border regions north and northeast of Kharkiv. Efforts appear to be to keep Ukrainian forces occupied and protect Russia supply lines to the Izyum area.

Russian forces have attempted to push northwest and south out of the Izyum region. Reports suggest they are attempting the attacks without the normal high volume of accompanying artillery, though artillery has been hitting the areas in previous days.

Donetsk Oblast ——
Russian limited artillery fire hit all around the margins of the Slovyansk-Siversk-Bakhmut salient.

Russia continues to concentrate its attacks on the northeast, east, and southeast of Bakhmut. Again, it appears that the attacks are without the considerable supporting artillery fire of previous attacks in the east.

After intense Russian assaults, mostly frontal attacks, Avdiivka area is quieter with artillery shelling the area, suggesting Russian forces are trying to consolidate their limited recent gains. It appears that Russia is prioritizing frontal attacks over the flanking attacks.

Minor artillery and ground skirmishes along the LOC to the west of Avdiivka towards the Zaporizhzhia region.

Crimean Front -
Russian forces continued to shell Ukrainian positions along the Kherson Oblast border. Russia targeted Mykolaiv City and Mykolaiv Oblast with missiles and rockets.

There are reports that Russian is attempting to assemble a ‘strike team’ to counter attack any Ukrainan offensive in northern Kherson Oblast. Russian artillery appears to be trying to interdict Ukrainian supply lines into northern Kherson from Zaporizhia City

Meanwhile, Ukraine continues to hit Russian lines of supply coming into the Kherson region from Crimea.

Western / Central Ukraine ——
NSR

Russian Territory - ——
NSR

Partisan Resistance ——
NSR

Ammunition / logistical sites hit ——-
NSR

OUTLOOK ——
Avdiivka and Bakhmut continue to be the focus of Russian operations. Russia continues anemic attacks out of Izyum and is preparing for the Ukrainan offensive in Kherson.

The FIRMS maps tell a big tale. Over the past 5 months it has documented the heavy and intense Russian artillery fires. Latest figures show very, very few fires along the various fronts. This supports the observation on the ground of far less volume and less artillery preparation for ground attacks. The attacks towards Bakhmut appear to be a case in point - being made with out the dense curtain of steel seen a month ago.

Ukraine appears to be putting the chess pieces into position for its offensive into Kherson. It appears to have effectively hit Russian resupply routes into Kherson Oblast as well as hitting Russia logistic / ammo facilities, C3 and ADA sites.

___________________________________

Belarus -

Belarusian special operations forces are conducting a combat readiness check on the border to Ukraine, according to reports from the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

______________________________________

Europe / NATO General -

Finland and Sweden are seeing favorable votes for entrance into NATO.

_____________________________________

SERBIA - KOSOVO (new) -

Monitoring, nothing new.

____________________________________

Israel -

Tensions in Israel following the arrest of Palestinian Islamic Jihad leader Bssam al-Saadi. Saadi is behind the military buildup of PIJ in the West Bank, especially in Jenin, according to the Shin Bet. A senior official of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) in the Gaza Strip said in an interview on Wednesday that his organization “will bomb” central Israel in response.

OBSERVATION - PIJ has a love/hate relationship with Hamas, claiming that Hamas isn’t radical enough and has started fights with Israel in the past. Those fights, Israel has generally held Hamas accountable since it controls Gaza and should have kept PIJ under control. If anything happens to Saadi - expect PIJ rockets to fly
____________________________________

Iran -

Iran and its proxies are responding to a growing political crisis in Baghdad that they have also been fueling. Tensions have mounted between the Shia Coordination Framework—the umbrella coalition for Iranian-backed parties in the Iraqi parliament—and Iraqi nationalist Shia cleric Moqtada al Sadr over the Iraqi government formation process.
Iran and its political proxies in the Coordination Framework have failed to respond cohesively to Sadr thus far. The Coordination Framework called for counterprotests on July 30, however those protests largely failed to gather support.

OBSERVATION - Iran is trying to influence Iraqi govt in the same manner it is trying to control other goats in the region.
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Iraq -

Muqtada al-Sadr dismissed calls for dialogue with an Iran-backed faction, called for the dissolution of the legislature and demands early elections. In a televised speech in the holy city of Najaf, in central Iraq, al-Sadr insisted that the sit-in by “revolutionaries” must continue until parliament is dissolved. Sadr supporters reportedly will hold a rally on August 5, during which Sadr may mobilize further protests against the Coordination Framework.

Under the Iraqi constitution, the legislature can only be dissolved by a majority vote, which can only be put forward at the request of either a third of lawmakers or the prime minister with the president’s agreement.

Politically opposing Sadr is the Coordination Framework includes the Hashed al-Shaabi, a former paramilitary network now integrated into Iraq’s security forces. Al-Sadr’s longtime foe, former Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, is also part of the grouping.

See also Iran above.

OBSERVATION - Deadlock and rising tension are leading to an eventual civil war between Sadr and Iranian backed elements. Right now it is largely a Shia v Shia fight. Not sure at this stage who the Sunni’s will support

_________________________________

Saudi Arabia -

The Biden administration approved a sale of Patriot missiles and support equipment to Saudi Arabia Tuesday, overriding prior campaign pledges to end arms transfers to the “pariah” country over human rights issues. The State Department said the Patriot missiles would be used to protect Saudi Arabia’s southern border against aerial attacks from the Houthis (Iran supported)

OBSERVATION - Some see the sale as an acknowledgement that there will be a conflict in the region with Iran soon.
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Turkey -

SDF and pro-Assad forces have been targeting Turkish military units in the northern portions of Syria.

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Armenia/Azerbaijan -

An Azeri Bayraktar TB2 UCAV hit an Armenian military base, destroying some artillery pieces.

Azerbaijan is claiming that it took control of several new heights in Karabakh as a result of the clashes, which Baku is calling ‘Operation Revenge’. Azerbaijan also said its forces had crushed an Armenian attack near the disputed enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh, prompting international calls for an end to fighting in a region that has been a flashpoint for 30 years

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Armenia accused Azerbaijan of violating the tripartite statement of November 9: “We consider unacceptable the statements of the Azerbaijani side, which make an attempt to unilaterally change the legal regime of the Lachin corridor, established by paragraph 6 of the tripartite document, and confirm that the route passing through the Lachin corridor, can only be changed according to a plan approved by the parties who signed the document”

A negative attitude toward Russian peacekeepers is observed among society in Nagorno-Karabakh, NK President said at the Security Council today.

OBSERVATION - Azeri forces are in the position of strength as Armenia forces suffered heavy losses in the last conflict. Only Russian and Turkish interdiction stopped the fight. Azeri elements see the lack of Russian support as an opportunity to resume its attacks. Remember, islamic elements consider only strength and will strike where there are signs of weakness. Armenia locals are grumbling about the lack of protection from the remaining Russian forces. How big a conflict in the region can blow up to depends on how froggy the Azeri’s are feeling.

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Weekend is on the way. . . . .
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Globalism / Great Reset -

Biden’s National Climate Advisor Gina McCarthy says Big Tech should censor people who criticize Biden’s “green” energy agenda.

UNESCO launched a campaign during the height of the pandemic scam to identify, debunk, react to and report on conspiracy theories and ‘false’ information. campaign is implemented jointly with the European Commission, Twitter and the World Jewish Congress.

OBSERVATION - Censorship - the only took the left and globalists have in tier bag as they fear open discussion. You and I know that this is just the start of tyranny - when the govt can censor criticisms at this level, the next step will be jailing individuals who continue to refuse to be silent.

Environmental Protection Agency says it will conduct helicopter overflights to look for methane “super emitters” in the nation’s largest oil and gas producing region. EPA’s Region 6 headquarters in Dallas, Texas, issued a news release about a new enforcement effort in the Permian Basin on Monday, saying the flights would occur within the next two weeks.The announcement came four days after The Associated Press published an investigation that showed 533 oil and gas facilities in the region are emitting excessive amounts of methane and named the companies most responsible.

OBSERVATION - One more avenue of attack by the GGR and in this case one of their proxies, to shut down the petroleum industry.

According to a report from the World Economic Forum (WEF), 80% of global emissions come from just six industries: oil, natural gas, steel, cement, aluminum, and ammonia. The WEF report calls for “deep decarbonization” of these industries by adopting “net-zero transformation” of urban expansion and agriculture, which would cut fertilizer use. The report calls for “more decisive action” to drive $2.1 trillion in investment capital to improve technology and develop new green infrastructure. (FO)

OBSERVATION - (FO) The WEF admits that these steps will drive up costs for end users. Input costs for so-called “green” steel will increase by 25-50%, prices for green cement will increase 50-85%, green aluminum prices will increase by 38%, and green ammonia prices will increase by 10-100%. The report warns that rising energy and fertilizer costs during this process will disrupt food and energy security, adding that “governments will have to carefully monitor and balance these cost increases for a just transition.”

______________________________

Wuhan virus -

Data, published in the peer-reviewed journal Scientific Reports, found that restaurant and business closures were not an effective way to stop the spread of COVID-19 and these closures actually do not contribute to the suppression of the coronavirus.

OBSERVATION - Instinctively, most would have come to the same conclusion. We know now for Brix’s new book and recent interviews that she and Fauci were making things up a they went.

Fauci trying to keep relevant issued a warning to unjabbed Americans or if they don’t get boosted, they’re going to get into trouble.

OBSERVATION - The bloom is off that flower. Most Americans realize the jab doesn’t work and the consequences of the jab are now easily greater than getting wuhan.
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Economy -

Mortgage rates have dropped below 5%, lowest since April. This a market reflex to the drop in home sales due to high interest rates. This won’t last long as the Fed is looking at more hikes in the prime rate as the days come by.

The spread between the yields on the 10-year and 2-year Treasury notes has been inverted for more than a month, as the closely-watched recession indicator continues to deepen. The Treasury yield curve inversion has long been a reliable recession indicator - and it’s been flashing for a month straight

OBSERVATION - These are just two more recession indicators that the MSM and biden are conveniently ignoring in order to push their redefined ‘recession’ narrative. They demonstrate that in the new term things just aren’t getting any bette, but getting worse.

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CW2/Domestic violence -

Black Lives Matter activist Shaun King threatened to inflict “pain” on two New York Post reporters in a series of posts to his millions of followers on Wednesday.
“I know where you live. Where you used to live. Where your family lives. Where they work,” King wrote in Instagram posts directed to New York Post reporters Kevin Sheehan and Isabel Vincent. “And a few thousand other people know now as well.”

OBSERVATION - Faux black King hasn’t really been fully accepted by the BLM crowd. He condemns doxxing him and his personal life while doxxing opponents. On a doxxing level, when things go sideways, this permits singling out opponents and potentially key leaders for threats or death. Recommend keeping an eye on personal security and try to maintain a ‘gray man’ approach.

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POLITICAL FRONT -

FBI Director Christopher Wray refused to acknowledge that the false allegations accusing President Donald Trump of colluding with Russia to influence the 2016 election, an accusation that fueled the FBI’s unlawful spying on members of the Republican’s presidential campaign, was, in fact, a hoax.
“Do you agree that the allegation of secret collusion between President Trump and Russia was a hoax, yes or no?” Republican Sen. Marsha Blackburn asked during a Senate Judiciary hearing on Thursday.
“I don’t think that’s the terminology I would use,” Wray said. “But I think there’s been a lot written on this subject, uh, both in the special counsel’s report, the inspector general’s report.”

OBSERVATION - His corruption is just the tip of the iceberg and a demonstration of the two tier level of justice the swamp has brought to America. God help us.
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Strategic Activity / Deployments -

The U.S. Air Force in Europe released a statement detailing that 12 U.S. Air Force F-22 Raptors assigned to the 90th Fighter Squadron forward deployed to the 32nd Tactical Air Base in Łask, Poland. Current reports dictate that six of those Raptors have now arrived in support of NATO’s ‘air shielding’ mission, which is centered around deterring “any possible Russian aggression” and shielding the airspace along NATO’s Eastern borders

SecDef has directed the USS Ronald Reagan aircraft carrier and other ships in the region to remain on station “to monitor the situation”
_________________________________

China -

China is halting cooperation with the United States in a number of areas, including dialogue between senior-level military commanders and climate talks, in retaliation for House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, it said on Friday. China’s foreign ministry also said that it was also suspending cooperation with Washington on prevention of cross-border crime and drug trafficking, and on repatriating illegal migrants, among eight specific measures.

China announced sanctions on US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and her immediate family members over her trip to Taiwan.

Chinese military drills continue as scheduled, from August 4 to 7. Taiwan’s Ministry of Defense confirmed as of 11am, multiple PLA aircrafts and vessels conducted military exercises around Taiwan, and crossed the median Line over the Taiwan Straits. The ministry condemned these actions as “highly provocative

OBSERVATION - Much of the initial brouhaha of China’s response to the pelosi visit has passed over. As the Chinese ‘exercises’ continue, they are providing the US with abundant intelligence on their C3, system capabilities and other tidbits (we have a bunch of airborne platforms collecting as we speak).
The concern continues to be the ‘soft’ blockade of the Island. Analysis of the placement of the exercise / impact areas has them right over major shipping and airline routes. With that, a big concern that China may hit a ship or plane either unintentionally or intentionally.

The Liaoning and Shandong carrier strike groups have reportedly deployed to positions north and south of Taiwan in an “exercise” to block the U.S. Navy’s access to the area. The PLA announced it also sortied an unspecified number of submarines to secure the Bashi Strait and East China Sea.

OBSERVATION - Analysts are viewing this, along with the exercises noted above, as a rehearsal of an air and sea blockade of Taiwan, or it is in the early process of setting one in place. Monitoring to see if after the week’s ‘exercises’ Chinese units return to base or continue operations.

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North/South Korea -

NUKE WATCH on going.

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Russia -
WAR WATCH - The Battle for Donbas is on - now in its sixth month of the war since starting on Feb 24th.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russia now essentially controls Luhansk Oblast, Russian forces have modified their immediate goals to try to capture Bakhmut and Avdiivka in the Donetsk region

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

Russian Personnel Issues -
- Indicators are showing that Russia is having to move forces once dedicated in the east and the Donbas campaign back to the south to deal with the Ukraine offensive threat.
- Rumors that Russian military officials are considering the redeployment of Russian troops from Syria to replenish the army.

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Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Hot with scattered thunderstorms over parts of the 10 day forecast period

24 HOUR ROUND UP -
Analysts are noting that Ukraine is gaining the overall initiative in the fight, forcing Russia to alter its plans as Ukrainan preparations for an offensive in Kherson Oblast build. Russian redeployment of forces in the east has opened up more opportunities for Ukrainan counter attacks and offensive actions.

Kyiv front ——
NSR

Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts - ——
NSR

Eastern (Kharkiv) front -
Russian artillery continues to target locations around Kharkiv. Russian artillery also hit areas south of Izyum,

Suspected redeployment of Russian forces out of the Izyum area to the south has allowed Ukraine to conduct localized counterattacks to regain ground southwest of Izyum and northwest of Slovyansk . Ukrainian General Staff Main Operations Deputy Chief Oleksii Gromov stated that Ukrainian forces have advanced on Russian defensive lines in Dmytrivka, Mazanivka, and Sulyhivka- all about 15km southwest of Izyum. Ukraine’s 93rd Brigade additionally stated that its troops retook Dibrovne, 20km southwest of Izyum. Gromov noted that Ukrainian troops liberated Mazanivka and Dmytrivka, both about 20km northwest of Slovyansk along the Kharkiv-Donetsk Oblast border.

Donetsk Oblast ——
Russian limited artillery fire hit all around the margins of the Slovyansk-Siversk-Bakhmut salient.

Russian forces continued fighting northeast and south of Bakhmut with little to no success.

Fighting for Avdiivka has shifted to ground attacks towards Pisky from the northwestern outskirts of Donetsk City, making limited advances against stiff Ukraninan defenses.

Zaporizhzhia and surrounds were hit with artillery and S300 missiles.

Russia is also moving forces from the region to the west to bolster defenses for the anticipated Ukranian offensive.

Crimean Front -
Russian artillery was primarily focused on the area southeast of Mykolaiv and the Ukrainian bridgehead south of Davydiv Brid.

Russia launched missile strikes at targets in the Odesa region.

Ukrainian aviation reportedly struck two Russian strongholds in the areas of Blahodatne and Pravdyne, both located northwest of Kherson. Ukrainian forces have also reportedly destroyed the command post of the Russian 22nd Army Corps during a strike on Chornobaivka, also northwest of Kherson.

Western / Central Ukraine ——
NSR

Russian Territory - ——
NSR

Partisan Resistance ——
Russian authorities kidnapped Hornostaiv community head Dmytro Lyakhno and local volunteer Oleksandr Slisarenko for reportedly refusing to cooperate with occupation officials in Kherson Oblast

Ammunition / logistical sites hit ——-
Novaya Kakhovka, a warehouse with Russian ammunition is on fire
Fire and explosions at a logistics site reported in Donetsk
Big fire near railway station in Donetsk
Fire and explosions near Oleshky, Kherson region.
Explosions and fire reported from an ammo dump near Nova Maiachka, Kherson region

OUTLOOK ——
Avdiivka and Bakhmut continue to be the primary focus of Russian assaults in the east. However, movement of forces from the east to face the threat from Ukraine in the west is creating more problems for the Russians than they are solving.

Ukrainian forces are likely taking advantage of the redeployment of Russian forces away from the Slovyansk axis and conducted localized counterattacks to regain ground southwest of Izyum and northwest of Slovyansk on August 4. Ukrainian General Staff Main Operations Deputy Chief Oleksii Gromov stated that Ukrainian forces have advanced on Russian defensive lines in Dmytrivka, Mazanivka, and Sulyhivka- all about 15km southwest of Izyum.

This in essence creates a two-front war for Russia who hardly has enough forces to push the Donbas campaign forward. On the flip side, does Ukraine have the forces necessary to prosecute a two front war? Evidence that Ukraine’s successful campaign against Russian ammo, logistics and CPs is working and changing chemistry of battle. Russian forces just aren’t being replenished with enough trained soldiers to carry the attacks forward without using mercenaries. Russian equipment coming out of storage is in very bad shape, requiring a lot of repair and preparation before going to the front - draining resources needed elsewhere. The Russian strategic program of missile strikes against key Ukrainan facilities and interdiction western ams and munitions hasn’t produced the desired results.

So I expect to see Russia try to continue its attacks against Avdiivka and Bakhmut, while Ukraine begins to pressure Russian supply lines with counter attacks eastward into the Izyum salient. More HIMARS and other strikes, isolating Russian forces in Kherson region in preparation for the big attack. Information is really tight on when the operation will kick off in force, so could be weeks. However, Ukraine has to make a decision before Russia is able to cobble enough units together to make the offensive costlier to Ukraine.
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Israel -

Israeli army says it is reinforcing the Gaza Division with additional artillery, engineering, infantry, tank, and special forces troops, in order to increase the Israeli army’s readiness in the area. There is no decision to halt all troops furlough, but some units will stay in the area

OBSERVATION - Things remain tense as PIJ continues to ramp up rhetoric ahead of a potential attack.
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Saudi Arabia -

With the rising nuclear threat of its arch enemy - Iran - the possibility of Pakistan providing Saudi Arabia with atomic warheads or the knowledge and means necessary to speedily create one on its own is rising. Pakistan is in an economic pinch, and SA has the money. This scenario has been bantered about for decades, only now becoming closer to reality as Iran has now reached the stage where creation of its own nuclear weapon is just about reality.

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Syria -

Excellent summary of life in Syria in the following link. In it, the civil war has hit a stalemate of sorts between all the combatants. Better read than any attempt on my part to summary further.

https://www.strategypage.com/qnd/syria/articles/20220805.aspx

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Misc of Note -

The US government has declared the monkeypox outbreak a public health emergency following a spike in cases. It comes less than a fortnight after the World Health Organization (WHO) issued its highest emergency alert following a worldwide surge in cases. Cases have topped 6,600 in the US, according to health officials.

Some public health experts have expressed concern the emergency declaration could further stigmatise the disease. Although anyone can catch monkeypox, the outbreak has been largely concentrated among men who have sex with men. But it is not purely a sexually transmitted infection (STI), and can also be passed on by close contact with an infected person.

Bidon administration message - “Monkeypox can infect anyone…but.......the majority of cases in the US outbreak have been among men who have sex with men, including gay and bisexual men and people who identify as transgender.”

OBSERVATION - Fearmongers are already trying to scare parents that monkey pox could be entering the schools this fall (personally watched a new article on the local TV station stating such. Science is dead folks, more concern is over stigmatizing gays than dealing with reality.
Remember 99% of the infections are limite to within the Gay/bisexual community. 4 children have also gotten it - but have close associations with gay/bisxexuals
____________________________________

Anyone else notice that craziness has increased since the start of August?

My news sources have been swamped by Israeli news, I’m sure there are some things I’m missing this morning.

Globalism / Great Reset -

The push for “renewable” energy has hit road bumps thrown up by environmental groups who are starting to realize that their green energy goals must come a the cost of an enormous expansion of mining projects to extract the raw materials for solar panels, wind turbines, and electric batteries out of the earth.
According to a report by the International Energy Agency, “a typical electric car requires six times the mineral inputs of a conventional car, and an onshore wind plant requires nine times more mineral resources than a gas-fired plant.” It projects that in order to meet current green energy targets, the demand for lithium will grow by 40 times by 2040; the demand for graphite, cobalt, and nickel will grow by 20–25 times; the demand for rare earth elements will grow 3–7 times; and the demand for copper will double.

OBSERVATION - To meet green demands by 2030, mining would have to explode in size to catchup to the power curve to supply the desired minerals. This in its self is an unrealistic situation made worse by environmentalist themselves. OTOH, the GGR elite don’t really care because their goal is to make all miserable, and they know that green energy is only a smoke screen.

Sens. Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.) and John Boozman (R-Ark.) introduced a bipartisan bill that would give regulatory authority over cryptocurrencies to the Commodities Futures Trading Commission. Under the bill, all cryptocurrency platforms — including traders, dealers, brokers, and sites that hold crypto for customers — would be required to register with the CFTC.
IN RELATED - A staff member from Sen. Cynthia Lummis’s (R-WY) office claimed that every one of the more than 40 crypto exchanges in the United States is being investigated by the SEC, according to Forbes.

OBSERVATION - THE GGR economy cannot have ‘black market’ types of currency floating around out there without regulation of some sort and eventually all electronic/digial currency will come under their control - if they have their way. This is just another incremental step in attaining that goal.

Wuhan virus -

A research article, published on June 14, 2022 in the peer-reviewed journal Science, documents that countries with the highest vaccination rates are experiencing the highest numbers of what they call “breakthrough infections,” as well as reinfection with other variants of COVID-19.
British scientists point out, countries with higher vaccine uptake rates are experiencing high numbers of primary infections and frequent reinfections with SARS-CoV-2. In contrast, in places where vaccine campaigns have not been widely implemented—including most countries in the continent of Africa—people are not becoming infected.

OBSERVATION - Evidence growing that the jab has made matters worse.

Economy -

Non-farm payrolls added a whopping 528,000 in July, more than double the estimate of 250,000; and the unemployment rate edged down to 3.5 percent in July from 3.6 percent in June.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that job growth was widespread, led by gains in leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, and health care. “Both total nonfarm employment and the unemployment rate have returned to their February 2020 pre-pandemic levels,” BLS noted.
But on the downside, the number of Americans not in the labor force — no job and not looking for one — climbed above the 100,000,000 mark again, settling at 100,051,000 in July. That’s a 239,000 increase from June; and it follows an increase of 510,000 from May to June, when the number rose to 99,812,000.

From June to July, the labor force saw full-time jobs drop by 71,000, while part-time jobs and multiple jobholders increased by 384,000 and 92,000, respectively, according to the latest seasonally adjusted Labor Department data. This trend of the economy dropping full-time jobs while adding second and part-time jobs has been accelerating since March.

OBSERVATION - The counting of employment/unemployment is so skewed that this is hard to evaluate. Some analysts noted that while the overall jobs figures look encouraging, the underlying reality is that most aren’t full-time as families look for additional sources of income to weather historically high inflation.

A new Gallup survey of 3,000 people, commissioned by West Health - a group of non-profits which lobby to bring down healthcare costs - found that rising healthcare costs caused by soaring inflation are forcing Americans to cut back on other areas of their lives - with 98 million people estimated to be either delaying or skipping treatment, reducing driving, cutting back on utilities and food, or borrowing money to pay medical bills.

OBSERVATION - People’s health suffered during the lockdown with hospitals stopping/postponing critical health care and screenings. Given the plethora of ads on TV urging people get caught up, the economic situation has been preventative of getting people back on line.

Invasion of Illegals -

Sweet smell of karma. Mayor Muriel Bowser hit the emergency alarm after 4,000 migrants arrived by bus, courtesy of Texas governor Greg Abbott, to her “sanctuary city”. Bowser requested the National Guard to assist with the influx of migrants, the pentagon told her to pound sand. “After careful consideration the Department has concluded it cannot fulfill your request,” Kelly Bulliner Holly told Christopher Rodriguez, director of D.C.’s Homeland Security and Emergency Management Agency.

China -

Taiwan’s defense ministry said 49 of the Chinese PLA’s record 68 aircraft crossed over the east side of the median line of the Taiwan strait, which serves as the approximate midway point across the waterway. Those 49 Chinese military aircraft included 47 J-10, J-11, J-16 and Su-30 fighter jets, a Y-8 electronic warfare variant and a Y-8 anti-submarine warfare variant aircraft.

OBSERVATION - China continues to keep the pressure on. The actions are passing those levels one could consider to be harassment to becoming borderline invasion preparation, though not of the Island proper but the smaller Taiwan administered islands.

North/South Korea -

NUKE WATCH on going.

See Russian RUMINT below on NK forces going to Ukraine.

Russia -
WAR WATCH - The Battle for Donbas is on - now in its sixth month of the war since starting on Feb 24th.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russia now essentially controls Luhansk Oblast, Russian forces have modified their immediate goals to try to capture Bakhmut and Avdiivka in the Donetsk region

RUMINT -
Up to 100,000 North Korean soldiers could be sent to bolster Vladimir Putin’s forces fighting Ukraine, according to Russian reports. They would be deployed to the forces of the separatist pro-Putin Donetsk People’s Republic [DPR] and Luhansk People’s Republic [LPR], both of which Kim has recently recognised as independent countries.“The country is ready to transfer up to 100,000 of its soldiers to Donbas,” said the report by the pro-Kremlin news agency...

Logistics -
- Observers are noting a significant shift in Russian forces from the east and other sectors to the Kherson region in anticipation of the Ukrainian offense.
- Iran has apparently handed 46 drones over to Russia and that the Ukrainian government has already noted the use of these drones in combat in Ukraine.

Russian Personnel Issues -
- Russia continues to scrape together volunteer battalions of men aged 18-50 with no military experience required. These battalions will receive 30 days of military training before being sent to the Ukraine front.

Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Hot with widely scattered thunderstorms over parts of the 10 day forecast period

24 HOUR ROUND UP -
Observers noted that while Russian artillery is geographically extensive (targeting a lot of places), it is qualitatively far less than before - fewer rounds. This trend continues to confirm the impacts Ukkraine interdiction of ammo dumps, plus Russian equipment fatigue (worn out gun barrels) is having

Russia continues to focus on the Bakhmut region while working to reposition forces to counter the expected Ukrainian offensive in Kherson Oblast.

Kyiv front ——
NSR

Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts - ——
NSR

Eastern (Kharkiv) front -
Russian artillery continues to target locations around Kharkiv. Russian army shelled Slobodsky district of Kharkiv with S-300 missiles.

Russian forces did not conduct any confirmed ground attacks between Izyum and Slovyansk. Only covered the area with scattered artillery.

Donetsk Oblast ——
Russian limited artillery fire hit the eastern and southern margins of the Slovyansk-Siversk-Bakhmut salient.

Russian forces continued to attempt to advance towards Bakhmut with little to no success along axises to the north, east and southeast. Russian advances are receiving a heaver cover of artillery here than elsewhere.
Russian forces conducted several limited ground attacks to the north and west of Donetsk City. One of the biggest conflicts was in the vicinity of Pisky (about 5km northwest of Donetsk City). Here Wagner Group forces are attempting to spear head the attack. Wagner is also involved in the other attacks in the sector, including the battle for Avdiivka. The presence of Wagner forces here indicates Russia considers these attacks to be a priority.

Russian troops at Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, besides firing artillery from the facility are moving explosives near the power units.

Crimean Front -
Russian artillery scattered along the Kherson Oblast boundary. Russian forces also continued to target Nikopol, Mykolaiv City, Dnipropetrovsk, and Odesa Oblasts with artillery, MLRS, and missile strikes.

Russian forces continued to attack the Ukrainian bridgehead over the Inhulets River near Davydiv Brid.

Western / Central Ukraine ——
NSR

Russian Territory - ——
Governor of Kursk region of Russia claims saboteur attack on military airfield in Kursk region foiled this morning

Partisan Resistance ——
Russian media report assassination attempt on deputy head of occupation authorities in Nova Kakhovka Vitaliy Hur

Partisans claimed responsibility for explosion at police station in Berdiansk this morning

Ammunition / logistical sites hit ——
The Ukrainian Southern Operational Command reported destroying three Russian ammunition depots in Kherson City, and in Prydniprovske and Tokarivka (both situated east of Kherson City along the Dnipro River)

Fires from a suspected logistics/ammo depot reported near Snizhne in occupied Donetsk Oblast.

Detonations coming from the city of Tokmak, Zaporizhzhia region, occupied by the Russian army, suspected logistics/ammo site.

OUTLOOK ——
Avdiivka and Bakhmut are considered to remain the priority of Russian offensive actions in the near term. All other sectors appear to being stripped of available forces and moved to counter the expected Ukraine offensive into Kherson Oblast. Ukraine deep interdiction of logistic and C3 is complicating the Russian preparations for their defense of the oblast.

I expect the current activity to remain relatively the same for then term. I’m watching closely the involvement of the Wagner group in the push for Bakhmut. They were key to the Russian win in the a month ago that resulted in Russia gaining control of the remaining potion of the Luhansk Oblast. They took a lot of losses in the effort and was able to succeed because of massive artillery support. That support for the current fight is significantly less, exposing them more to the Ukraine defensive fires.

Europe / NATO General -

The EU condemns Russia’s military activities around Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. This is a serious and irresponsible breach of nuclear safety rules and another example of Russia’s disregard for international norms. IAEA must gain access

Israel -

Crap, try to go to the county fair and all heck breaks out.

Israel unleashed a wave of airstrikes Friday on Gaza, killing at least 10 people, including a senior militant, according to Palestinian officials. Israeli military officials said they had struck pre-emptively after several days of threats from militant groups in Gaza, who were angered by the arrest of a senior Islamic Jihad figure in the West Bank earlier this week.

Hours later, Palestinian militants started launching barrages of rockets as air-raid sirens wailed in Israel and the two sides drew closer to another all-out war.

Palestinian Islamic Jihad: “As part of its initial response to the crime of assassinating the great commander, “Taysir al-Jabari” and his martyred brothers... Saraya al-Quds bombarded Tel Aviv, the central cities and the envelope with more than 100 rockets.” The military wing of the PIJ in the west bank reportedly announces a general mobilization

Paticipation expanded to a number of other second tier islamic terror goups in Gaza - PIJ Saraya Al-Quds, DFLP National Resistance Brigades, Al-Aqsa Martyr’s Brigade, Martyr Abdel Qader Al-Husseini Brigades and Al-Nasser Salah Al-Din Brigades have all taken responsibility for firing rockets towards Israel today.

The Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine (DFLP) military wing National Resistance Brigades have joined Saraya Al-Quds in launching rockets into Israel, they have taken responsibility for launching rockets towards Netivot. DFLP is a secular Palestinian Marxist-Leninist faction.

A press conference was held yesterday by militants in the West Bank city of Jenin. Going by the photo it appears members of Hamas, Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades, Palestinian Islamic Jihad and either the DFLP or PFLP were present. However, Hamas units in Gaza have been keeping a low profile, not joining the rocket attacks.

Egyptian Foreign Ministry: We are conducting intensive contacts around the clock with the aim of containing the situation in Gaza and working to calm down. Egypt conveyed a message to Hamas from Israel “if it enters the fighting there will be a broad escalation and Hamas will pay a heavy price.”
A delegation of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) is expected to arrive in Cairo to meet with the Egyptian General Intelligence officials in an attempt to end the ongoing round of escalation.

25,000 IDF reservists have been called-up. IDF entering “emergency mode.” Israel has said it will launch a “week of operations” against Palestinian Islamic Jihad [PIJ] in the Gaza Strip.

Israel announce ‘Operation Dawn’. Several airstrikes targeting high ranking members of militant groups in Gaza reported.

Exchanges of rockets and air strikes continue as I write.

OBSERVATION - As noted yesterday, tensions were skyrocketing between Israel and PIJ. A lot of rockets being tossed by the islamic terror groups, but it is no where near the levels see with the fight with Hamas about a year ago. These groups generally have fewer rockets and of poorer quality, meaning higher failure rates, more easily handled by Iron Dome.

Israeli counter strikes decimating well planned identified terror facilities. It is also apparent from reports that Israel is also trying to focus on leadership deception of PIJ forces. Israel is being careful to avoid Hamas forces and facilities.

It seems that PIJ is already making contact with Egypt to try to get a cease fire - though openly they deny the actions. I suspect that Israel will continue to pound PIJ, et al until they are satisfied that they’ve gotten the desired leadership and destroyed enough facilities. Israel has already announced the operations will likely last fore ‘weeks’.

One concern is the call up of reserves and going into “emergency mode”. Though Israel likes to call up extra forces as backup, this situation is different in that there is an inference that a major ground operation could be in the offing.

Armenia/Azerbaijan -

Azerbaijani Defense Ministry reports on taking control of Mount Buzdukh and nearby heights in Karabakh.

OBSERVATION - The Azeri’s are picking off low hanging fruit while Russia is distracted by Ukraine.

And a waaaaay we go.

Wuhan virus -

See potential extension of the national emergency under Political below.

Economy -

US diesel exports last month rose to 1.4 million barrels a day, a five-year high, according to data from oil analytics firm Vortexa compiled by Bloomberg. Europe is buying more US diesel as the continent tries to wean itself from Russia. Latin America has also stepped up imports, in part to replace lost volumes from Europe. “The short-term diesel outlook is one of tight fundamentals through the coming winter,” ESAI Energy analysts including Linda Giesecke said. East Coast seasonal distillate stockpiles, which include diesel, have languished at record lows every single week since May, government data show.

OBSERVATION - This in the face of diesel shortages and high prices here in the US. US heating oil prices will be hit as well.

Invasion of Illegals -

TX has shipped their first batch of illegals to NYC. Liberal heads are bursting as they must face the same problems red cities are from biden air lifting illegals into the middle of the country.

Biden / Harris watch -

biden tested negative for wuhan. Harris no where to be seen.

CW2/Domestic violence -

Following FBI’s Wray’s testimony on capitol hill, it is clear that they no longer wear the white hats and are deeply corrupted - not that we didn’t know this already, but just another data point of proof.

POLITICAL FRONT -

Politico is reporting on the likelihood that Joe Biden is preparing to extend the national COVID-19 state of emergency through the 2022 midterm elections.

The Biden administration is expected to extend the Covid-19 public health emergency once again, ensuring that federal measures expanding access to health coverage, vaccines and treatments remain in place beyond the midterm elections, three people with knowledge of the matter told POLITICO.
The planned renewal follows extensive deliberations among Biden officials over the future of the emergency declaration, including some who questioned whether it was time to let the designation lapse.

Under the proposed extension, the Department of Health and Human Services would continue the declaration beyond the November elections and potentially into early 2023 — pushing the U.S. into its fourth calendar year under a Covid public health emergency

OBSERVATION - Placed this here because of the high potential that this ‘emergency declaration’ may be used to justify continued use of mail in ballots in an effort to cheat the midterm votes. There is no justification to continuing the emergency.

China -

China continues to fly plains into Taiwan’s ADZ and naval vessels along the midpoint line in the Taiwan Straits.

Tensions remain high.

Russia -
WAR WATCH - The Battle for Donbas is on - now in its sixth month of the war since starting on Feb 24th.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russia now essentially controls Luhansk Oblast, Russian forces have modified their immediate goals to try to capture Bakhmut and Avdiivka in the Donetsk region

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

********

Russia has lost the initiative, now responding to Ukraine rather than the other way around.

Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Hot with widely scattered thunderstorms over parts of the 10 day forecast period

24 HOUR ROUND UP -
Action on the front lines appears to have let up slightly, though could be just a reporting aberration or a pause brought on by forces being shifted around to the south.

More ships with Ukrainian grain have successfully departed ports headed to Turkey and ports beyond. Even with the agreement holding, Ukraine exports are expected to be only 40% of normal.

Kyiv front ——
NSR

Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts - ——
NSR other than scattered artillery fire

Eastern (Kharkiv) front -
Russian artillery continues to target locations around Kharkiv. Kharkiv itself was hit by several missiles overnight.

Artillery support to a recon in force by Russian units south of Izyum. No terrain gains as the recon was repulsed.

Donetsk Oblast ——
Russian limited artillery fire hit the eastern and southern margins of the Slovyansk-Siversk-Bakhmut salient.

Russia continued attacks towards Bakhmut with little to no gains.

Russians attempted to push towards Avdiivka again but were turned back.

Scattered Russian artillery fire along the Zaporizhzhia Oblast LOC.

Crimean Front -
Relatively quiet except for Russian artillery focusing on the Ukranian river crossing at Davydiv Brid.

Western / Central Ukraine ——
NSR
I suspect there are continuing Russian missile strikes, just nothing being reported hitting my data feeds.

Russian Territory - ——
NSR.

Partisan Resistance ——
Leaflets from the Russian-occupied city of Kherson keep appearing on social media channels, depicting posters with warnings directed at the occupiers: “We know all your patrol routes,” they read. And: “Kherson is Ukrainian.”

Ammunition / logistical sites hit ——
NSR

OUTLOOK ——
Lacking the overwhelming artillery support, Russian forces continue to flail themselves on Ukrainan defenses. Russian unit sizes appear to be company level attacks, with poor coordination. This is what cause them to loose so many troops in the initial fights. In the current fights for Avdiivka and Bakhmut, this is a very obvious shortfall.
Making matters worse, The effects of Russian forces being moved to the south to counter Ukrainan offensive threats into Kherson and now Zaporizhzhia Oblasts is becoming painfully aware to the forces remaining in the east.
Meanwhile, Ukraine continues to prepare the battlefield for its anticipated offensive. Russian logistics and command posts get nailed on a daily basis. Overall, Ukraine has seized the initiative across the whole battlefield.

Israel -

Israel and PIJ et al continue to shoot at each other even as I type.

It is estimated act the islamists have fired more than 700 rockets from Gaza since the start of the conflict.
The Iron Dome have intercepted 97% of the rockets that directly threatened Israelis.
An estimated 120+ rockets have landed in Gaza and killed innocent Palestinians. One incident occurred in Jabaliya, northern Gaza. Video shows a missile doing a 180 and striking the area, killing dozens.

Israel has since the start of the conflict focused on decapitating the PIJ leadership. They have been relatively successful.
- Israeli air force killed senior Jihad field commander Abu Tariq al Mudallal in Rafah at his home.
- Khaled Mansour, leader of the Islamic Jihad in southern Gaza, identified as the military commander killed in Rafah.
- Israel’s IDF took out PIJ’s southern Gaza military commander Khaled Mansour
- IDF killed after striking his northern Gaza commander Tayseer Jabari .
- Israeli security forces arrested senior Islamic Jihad member, Nasr Amour, after storming his home in Anza, south of Jenin.
- Bassam Theyab, a senior member of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad has been arrested after his house was stormed by Israeli forces southwest of Jenin.

PIJ Spokesperson: “We have demands. If they are met, this round of violence will end, including the release of Commander Bassam Al-Sa’adi who was arrested in Jenin camp”. Islamic Jihad spokesperson to Al-Jazeera, “Currently there is no talk of a ceasefire.”

Israeli spokesmen state that Israel should prepare for operations to continue at least another week.

OBSERVATION - Hamas is keeping their nose out of this fight and Israel is taking steps to avoid Hamas. PIJ is a competing islamist group with a lot of Iranian support that has been gaining in ‘popularity’ in Gaza, challenging Hamas’ control more and more. Hamas would like nothing more than to have them neutralized as a competitor. Israel sees the PIJ as one of the major agitators on the rise in the West Bank and wants to put them down - hard.
Mutual goals

Note the number of rockets fired, PIJ and its allied second tier islamc groups and not shooting the volumes of rockets Hamas did last year, nor are they any where near as reliable. Videos show many rockets going off transjectory and falling back into Gaza.

Israel says this operation will last for the near term.

Globalism / Great Reset -

“I am confident the inflation Reduction Act will endure as one of the defining legislative feats of the 21st century,” Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., said.

OBSERVATION - See discussion under Economy. Great potential for this act to be the final straw that tosses the US into full blown economic turmoil, that the GGR can exploit.

Dutch farmers and the government failed to reach a deal on Friday on environmental plans that have sparked weeks of angry demonstrations.
The official overseeing the talks, Johan Remkes, said there was “grave crisis of confidence” between the farmers and the government of the Netherlands, which is the world’s second-biggest agricultural exporter after the United States. Remkes, who recently led tortuous negotiations on forming a new coalition government, added that the differences “went deeper than nitrogen”.

OBSERVATION - Key note - “went deeper than nitrogen”. It appears the GGR has its hooks deep within the Dutch govt and any concessions will not be coming forth any time soon. The govt appears to be ready to ram its reforms through no matter what.

Wuhan virus -

See new lockdowns in China.

Economy -

With much democrat fanfare, the “Inflation Reduction Act” was passed 51-50 by the Senate. Among many things, it will actually put more pressure on keeping inflation high due to outrageous govt spending, crash the energy industry and increase taxes during a recession. A report from the independent Congressional Budget Office (CBO), indicates that the measures in the $740 billion would have a marginal to negative impact on inflation.

About half of the Act, some $300 billion, will be dedicated to IRS enforcement, surveillance upgrades, and audits against small businesses, who have now been re-labeled “the rich.” This is an eightfold increase in their budget plus they are adding 87,000 new agents.

OBSERVATION - Throw on top of it a massive increase in the size of the IRS, making it one of if not the largest alphabet departments in the govt. We all remember how Barack Obama’s IRS went after Tea Party groups and other conservative organizations before and after the 2010 midterm wipeout. But imagine an IRS hostile to conservative principles, and emboldened by an eight-fold budget increase and 87,000 new agents.

The history is there for those to learn, and totalitarian govts control the sheep by oppressive economic measures - taxes being one. A super weaponized IRS attacking conservatives, a wet dream for democrats. I see linkage to future confiscatory taxation as a push to ‘no one owning anything and being happy’ GGR days ahead.

Walmart said it now anticipates adjusted earnings per share for the second quarter and full year to decline around 8–9 percent and 11–13 percent, respectively. Previously, the retailer had predicted a 1 percent fall it had previously forecast for the full year.
“Food inflation is double digits and higher than at the end of the first quarter. This is affecting customers’ ability to spend on general merchandise categories and requiring more markdowns to move through the inventory, particularly apparel,” Walmart said.

OBSERVATION - Wally world is a bell weather company because it has it fingers in a broad spectrum of the economy. They are trying to get a head of the power curve, seeing g hard economic times approaching.

Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said she supports the central bank’s recent 0.75 percentage point rate increases and believes they should continue until inflation is subdued. -
“My view is that similarly sized increases should be on the table until we see inflation declining in a consistent, meaningful, and lasting way,” she added in a speech Saturday. Bowman said she sees “a significant risk of high inflation into next year for necessities including food, housing, fuel, and vehicles.” Bowman also said that she sees “few, if any” signs that inflation has peaked.
Markets are anticipating a third straight big increase when the central bank meets again in September.

OBSERVATION - Three consecutive increases of 0.75 (75 basis points) is unprecedented. It will essentially put the nail into the coffin of the housing market that is trying to correct mortgage rates (having slipped down to 4.99% in some cases) to offset decrease in loans on overpriced homes.
Throw a recession into the mix along with a tax increase and more out of control spending by the govt, well, we are likely to see more record inflation well into next year.

Invasion of Illegals -

New York City Mayor Eric Adams called on the federal government for assistance after buses of migrants sent by Texas Gov. Greg Abbott began arriving at his doorstep over the weekend. “This is horrific, when you think about what the governor is doing,” Adams, a Democrat, said of Abbott, a Republican, at a press conference Sunday at the Port Authority bus terminal, where migrants were dropped off that morning.
“It is unimaginable what the governor of Texas has done, when you think about this country, a country that has always been open to those who were fleeing persecution,” the mayor noted. “We’ve always welcomed them. And this governor is not doing that in Texas. But we are going to set the right tone of being here for these families.”
Abbott, who has become a thorn in the Biden administration’s side over the immigration issue, defended his actions last week by arguing that the several thousand people bused to D.C. pales in comparison to what his communities, including Eagle Pass, Tx.; Del Rio, Tx.; and McAllen, Tx., have faced for the past 16 months.

OBSERVATION - The hypocrisy of the left is as thick as molasses in winter. Goes to prove the little bubble world they live in. biden has shipped illegals by the plane load across the country and gets a few busses full of illegals liberals go into melt down.

CW2/Domestic violence -

“Black is Back Coalition” is a black revolutionary communist organization dedicated to “social justice, peace, and reparations,” according to their website. Over the weekend, the organization held its 13th annual conference with the theme “Concerning Violence: Political Power and Guns.” It featured speakers from the African People’s Socialist Party, a St. Louis, Missouri-based revolutionary group. he general conclusion was that violence is necessary for the liberation of Africans around the world and that the pan-African revolutionary communist movement should build strong communities to back up the violence needed for armed liberation. (FO) It was founded in September 2009

OBSERVATION - Not sure if this organization is going to grow to replace BLM who’s leadership has been corrupted by monies received and has been unable to focus on continued pressure on the political community. It has been around a while and its news release following its conference seems to infer it is drying to fill the leadership vacuum. Where BLM was a chaotic violence organization (especially when tied to Antifa), this group appears to be more dangerous, better organized, with actually planning violence and violence based action. Need to monitor closely.

Social and environmental justice protests are occupying leftist groups this week.

China -

As the initial pelosi-induced Chinese exercises wind down, China’s Maritime Safety Administration has announced new PLA drills will kick off to in five zones of the Yellow Sea from Aug. 5 to 15. The Washington Post details -
China’s Ministry of Defense did not announce the purpose of the expanded exercises, which come as the visit frayed U.S.-China relations, but they come as Beijing is putting on its greatest show of force around Taiwan since the last cross-strait crisis of 1995 to 1996 — in what it calls a warning to “provocateurs” who challenge Beijing’s claims over Taiwan, the self-governing democracy of 23 million. These drills will likely transition into “regular” drills on the eastern side of the median line of the Taiwan Strait, Chinese state television reported on Sunday, citing a commentator.

PLA Eastern Theater Command said on Monday it would continue drills in waters near Taiwan with a focus on ASW and ASuW operations. This is an extension of the exercises China kicked off in the wake of the Pelosi visit

OBSERVATION - Observers and analysts note that the initial Chinese exercises demonstrated that China can quickly place a ‘soft’ (my term) blockade around Taiwan. It now seems that China also liked the results and is going to maintain a variant of the tactic for the indefinite future. The question is how tightly will China put the squeeze on? Global response may rise quickly as Taiwan is a major producer of computer chips - a product that is facing global shortages.

Escalation of exercises is a standard intelligence warning of an impending attack. But in this case, near term still likely to go after the Taiwan administered islands near the mainland. Little evidence of an impending attack on Taiwan proper. I still think that China has a two year window and will execute an attack before the end of the biden regime. But I believe China has pushed the countdown timer for eventual attack on Taiwan.

The Chinese communist regime has put the world largest wholesale hub, Yiwu city in east China, under semi lockdown due to a new outbreak of COVID-19. News of the lockdown has brought more supply and shipping concerns.

OBSERVATION - Continued lockdowns combined with an already shaky economic condition are not conducive to stability. A large segment of the Chinese population is already angered over the developing property market crash and more disruptions are not going to help matters.

North/South Korea -

NUKE WATCH on going.

North Korea will convene a meeting of its rubber-stamp legislature in Pyongyang next month to discuss organizational issues, state media said Monday. The session will discuss organizational issues and issues related to the rural development law, and to review anti-epidemic measures.

Russia -
WAR WATCH - The Battle for Donbas is on - now in its sixth month of the war since starting on Feb 24th.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russia now essentially controls Luhansk Oblast, Russian forces have modified their immediate goals to try to capture Bakhmut and Avdiivka in the Donetsk region. Russia is also working to redeploy forces to face an anticipated Ukraninan offensive to retake Kherson and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts

Russian Personnel Issues -
- Leadership shake up - Gen. Aleksandr Vladimirovich Dvornikov, who had been charged with overall command of the operation in Ukraine, was removed from his post last week, the British Defense Ministry said. General-Colonel Aleksandr Zhuravlev, who had commanded Russia’s Western Military District since 2018, was absent from Russia’s Navy Day in St Petersburg a week ago and has likely been replaced, the ministry said in its assessment of the war. Army General Sergey Surovikin has taken over the “Southern Grouping” of forces in Ukraine

Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Hot with widely scattered thunderstorms over parts of the 10 day forecast period

24 HOUR ROUND UP -
Action along the fronts appear to have been relatively quiet over the last 24 hours. The most active region being ongoing attacks in the Bakhmut area, and even these attacks are not approaching the intensity of recent weeks. Same goes for attacks towards Avdiivka.

Zelenskyy: “If Russia holds a referendum on the temporarily occupied territories in the south of Ukraine, it will close all possibilities for negotiations with our country.”

U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called for international inspectors to be given access to the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant after Ukraine and Russia traded accusations over the shelling of Europe’s largest atomic plant at the weekend

Kyiv front ——
NSR

Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts - ——
NSR

Eastern (Kharkiv) front -
Artillery attacks dropped significantly. Kharkiv was hit by probable S-300 missiles targeting Kharkiv City’s Industrialny and Novobavarsky districts.

Donetsk Oblast ——
Russian limited artillery fire hit the eastern and southern margins of the Slovyansk-Siversk-Bakhmut salient.

Slow 24 hours, with limited ground and artillery attacks towards Bakhmut.

Russian attacks towards Avdiivka and Pisky, very minor with equivalent minor artillery support.

Widely scattered artillery along the Zaporizhzhia Oblast LOC.

Crimean Front -
Very low amount of artillery fire by Russians. Mykolaiv has seen increased in MLRS and cruse missile attacks.

The Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) continues to be a point of contention. Russia currently has control of the facility and it has been documented the it has been firing artillery from the facility as well as storing ammunition near the reactors. If the site is hit by Ukraine, the explosion of the ammo could fracture the control structures and create a major nuclear disaster.

Russian forces continue to be moved into the sector to defend against the Ukrainian offensive into Kherson and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. Reports from the Melitopol Mayor Ivan Fedorov also noted that Russian forces are transporting three to four convoys of military equipment through Melitopol daily.

Ukrainan artillery and missile strikes continue to be directed against logistical choke points to isolate forward Russian forces from the attack.

Multiple grain cargo ships noted in satellite imagery at the port of Odessa. So fa Russia has not sabotaged the agreement o movement of grain.

Western / Central Ukraine ——
Russian cruse missiles were fired towards Uman, Ukrainian air defense shot down most of them.

Russian Territory - ——
NSR.

Partisan Resistance ——
The Ukrainian Resistance Center reported on August 7 that Ukrainian partisans launched their first newspaper in Kherson on August 4 called “Voice of the Partisan” and claimed that partisans distributed 1,200 paper copies and a PDF of the newspaper.
Ukrainian partisan Telegram channel Yellow Ribbon announced a bounty of 10 bitcoin (approximately $230,000 USD) for the live capture and transfer of the Russian-appointed governor of occupied Crimea, Sergey Aksyonov, to Ukraine.

Ammunition / logistical sites hit ——
Three Russians military depots in occupied Donetsk were reportedly destroyed.

Antonivskyi Bridge appears to have been hit by Ukrainian fire again.

OUTLOOK ——
There seems to be a pause in Russian operations in eastern Ukraine in addition to most of the other lines of contact. Could be just a lack of reporting or an actual pause by Russia. Additionally, Russian interdictory strikes inland using cruse, Iskander, S300 and other stand off missiles has been very low. In fact, the use of S300 has been the predominately reported missile of use lately.

I am cautiously inclined to think it is another pause. Russia has been redirecting and redeploying a lot of units and material to the south to oppose the anticipated Ukrainan offensive. That battle could be the deciding battle of this war. A successful Ukraine offensive could cut off Russian resupply via Crimea and threaten forces further east along with putting the Kerch Strait bridge in range of Ukranian weapons.

The redeployment is making holes in the Russian defense in places like Kharkiv and Izyum, that could result in local counter offensives cutting critical LOC so the eastern front.

Poland -

Polish defense officials announced a $14.5 billion contract to purchase military equipment from South Korea. This includes over 1,600 armored vehicles, including 1,000 K2 Black Panther Main Battle Tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, and self-propelled artillery platforms.

OBSERVATION - This a part of a major modernization effort to replace soviet-era equipment sent to Ukraine as well as prepare for potential confrontations with Russia. Poland is seems to be hopeful that this will develop into a closer relationship and access to SK production.

Israel -

Israel agreed on Sunday night to a ceasefire with militants in Gaza after 3 days of fighting.

Initial data from the IDF:
Out of about 1100+ launches of the PIJ, about 200 were failures (1 out of 5 fell back into the Gaza strip)
11 uninvolved civilians were killed in the IDF strikes, 15 civilians were killed by the PIJ’s failed rockets.
Iron Dome successfully intercepted 96%

PIJ confirms 12 members killed in Gaza fighting. Hamas confirms 2 members of military wing killed. DFLP military wing confirms 1 killed.

OBSERVATION - Israel managed to nail all of the PIJ’s senior leadership as well as leaders in other affiliated factions. That in itself will set them back a year or too. New islamic radical leadership seems to sprout up like weeds though. This is a big win for Hamas, who sees this as mitigating a major competitor(s) in Gaza.
Unless someone in the PIJ or affiliated groups gets a wild hair and starts launching again, things should remain quiet.

Iraq -

Muqtada al-Sadr - “We stand with the protesters in the Green Zone, and reform will defeat corruption in Iraq”

OBSERVATION - Govt crisis continues in Iraq.

Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan -

Islamic Emirate and Pakistani soldiers exchanged gunfire in the Ben-Shahi area of Dangam district in Kunar province, according to Najibullah Hanif, local director of information and culture.

Black Swans -

New York state health officials have found indications of additional cases of polio virus in wastewater samples from two different counties, leading them to warn that hundreds of people may be infected with the potentially serious virus.
Just two weeks ago, the New York Health Department reported the nation’s first case of polio in almost a decade, in Rockland County, north of New York City. Officials said that case occurred in a previously healthy young adult who was unvaccinated and developed paralysis in their legs. Since then, three positive wastewater samples from Rockland County and four from neighboring Orange County were discovered and genetically linked to the first case, the health department said in a press release on Thursday, suggesting that the polio virus is being spread within local communities. The newest samples were taken from two locations in Orange County in June and July and one location in Rockland County in July.

OBSERVATION - This has the potential to become more serious than wuhan and monkey pox. Question becomes who are the carriers, since vaccination against polio is still standard among babies born in the US, is this representing illegals who’s countries of origin are not as up to date on vaccination? There has been rumblings in the conspiracy community of polio being the next pandemic - deliberately introduced. Could this be another case of conspiracy becoming reality ?

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