Anyone else notice that craziness has increased since the start of August?
My news sources have been swamped by Israeli news, I’m sure there are some things I’m missing this morning.
Globalism / Great Reset -
The push for “renewable” energy has hit road bumps thrown up by environmental groups who are starting to realize that their green energy goals must come a the cost of an enormous expansion of mining projects to extract the raw materials for solar panels, wind turbines, and electric batteries out of the earth.
According to a report by the International Energy Agency, “a typical electric car requires six times the mineral inputs of a conventional car, and an onshore wind plant requires nine times more mineral resources than a gas-fired plant.” It projects that in order to meet current green energy targets, the demand for lithium will grow by 40 times by 2040; the demand for graphite, cobalt, and nickel will grow by 20–25 times; the demand for rare earth elements will grow 3–7 times; and the demand for copper will double.
OBSERVATION - To meet green demands by 2030, mining would have to explode in size to catchup to the power curve to supply the desired minerals. This in its self is an unrealistic situation made worse by environmentalist themselves. OTOH, the GGR elite don’t really care because their goal is to make all miserable, and they know that green energy is only a smoke screen.
Sens. Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.) and John Boozman (R-Ark.) introduced a bipartisan bill that would give regulatory authority over cryptocurrencies to the Commodities Futures Trading Commission. Under the bill, all cryptocurrency platforms — including traders, dealers, brokers, and sites that hold crypto for customers — would be required to register with the CFTC.
IN RELATED - A staff member from Sen. Cynthia Lummis’s (R-WY) office claimed that every one of the more than 40 crypto exchanges in the United States is being investigated by the SEC, according to Forbes.
OBSERVATION - THE GGR economy cannot have ‘black market’ types of currency floating around out there without regulation of some sort and eventually all electronic/digial currency will come under their control - if they have their way. This is just another incremental step in attaining that goal.
Wuhan virus -
A research article, published on June 14, 2022 in the peer-reviewed journal Science, documents that countries with the highest vaccination rates are experiencing the highest numbers of what they call “breakthrough infections,” as well as reinfection with other variants of COVID-19.
British scientists point out, countries with higher vaccine uptake rates are experiencing high numbers of primary infections and frequent reinfections with SARS-CoV-2. In contrast, in places where vaccine campaigns have not been widely implemented—including most countries in the continent of Africa—people are not becoming infected.
OBSERVATION - Evidence growing that the jab has made matters worse.
Economy -
Non-farm payrolls added a whopping 528,000 in July, more than double the estimate of 250,000; and the unemployment rate edged down to 3.5 percent in July from 3.6 percent in June.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that job growth was widespread, led by gains in leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, and health care. “Both total nonfarm employment and the unemployment rate have returned to their February 2020 pre-pandemic levels,” BLS noted.
But on the downside, the number of Americans not in the labor force — no job and not looking for one — climbed above the 100,000,000 mark again, settling at 100,051,000 in July. That’s a 239,000 increase from June; and it follows an increase of 510,000 from May to June, when the number rose to 99,812,000.
From June to July, the labor force saw full-time jobs drop by 71,000, while part-time jobs and multiple jobholders increased by 384,000 and 92,000, respectively, according to the latest seasonally adjusted Labor Department data. This trend of the economy dropping full-time jobs while adding second and part-time jobs has been accelerating since March.
OBSERVATION - The counting of employment/unemployment is so skewed that this is hard to evaluate. Some analysts noted that while the overall jobs figures look encouraging, the underlying reality is that most aren’t full-time as families look for additional sources of income to weather historically high inflation.
A new Gallup survey of 3,000 people, commissioned by West Health - a group of non-profits which lobby to bring down healthcare costs - found that rising healthcare costs caused by soaring inflation are forcing Americans to cut back on other areas of their lives - with 98 million people estimated to be either delaying or skipping treatment, reducing driving, cutting back on utilities and food, or borrowing money to pay medical bills.
OBSERVATION - People’s health suffered during the lockdown with hospitals stopping/postponing critical health care and screenings. Given the plethora of ads on TV urging people get caught up, the economic situation has been preventative of getting people back on line.
Invasion of Illegals -
Sweet smell of karma. Mayor Muriel Bowser hit the emergency alarm after 4,000 migrants arrived by bus, courtesy of Texas governor Greg Abbott, to her “sanctuary city”. Bowser requested the National Guard to assist with the influx of migrants, the pentagon told her to pound sand. “After careful consideration the Department has concluded it cannot fulfill your request,” Kelly Bulliner Holly told Christopher Rodriguez, director of D.C.’s Homeland Security and Emergency Management Agency.
China -
Taiwan’s defense ministry said 49 of the Chinese PLA’s record 68 aircraft crossed over the east side of the median line of the Taiwan strait, which serves as the approximate midway point across the waterway. Those 49 Chinese military aircraft included 47 J-10, J-11, J-16 and Su-30 fighter jets, a Y-8 electronic warfare variant and a Y-8 anti-submarine warfare variant aircraft.
OBSERVATION - China continues to keep the pressure on. The actions are passing those levels one could consider to be harassment to becoming borderline invasion preparation, though not of the Island proper but the smaller Taiwan administered islands.
North/South Korea -
NUKE WATCH on going.
See Russian RUMINT below on NK forces going to Ukraine.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - The Battle for Donbas is on - now in its sixth month of the war since starting on Feb 24th.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russia now essentially controls Luhansk Oblast, Russian forces have modified their immediate goals to try to capture Bakhmut and Avdiivka in the Donetsk region
RUMINT -
Up to 100,000 North Korean soldiers could be sent to bolster Vladimir Putin’s forces fighting Ukraine, according to Russian reports. They would be deployed to the forces of the separatist pro-Putin Donetsk People’s Republic [DPR] and Luhansk People’s Republic [LPR], both of which Kim has recently recognised as independent countries.“The country is ready to transfer up to 100,000 of its soldiers to Donbas,” said the report by the pro-Kremlin news agency...
Logistics -
- Observers are noting a significant shift in Russian forces from the east and other sectors to the Kherson region in anticipation of the Ukrainian offense.
- Iran has apparently handed 46 drones over to Russia and that the Ukrainian government has already noted the use of these drones in combat in Ukraine.
Russian Personnel Issues -
- Russia continues to scrape together volunteer battalions of men aged 18-50 with no military experience required. These battalions will receive 30 days of military training before being sent to the Ukraine front.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST - Hot with widely scattered thunderstorms over parts of the 10 day forecast period
24 HOUR ROUND UP -
Observers noted that while Russian artillery is geographically extensive (targeting a lot of places), it is qualitatively far less than before - fewer rounds. This trend continues to confirm the impacts Ukkraine interdiction of ammo dumps, plus Russian equipment fatigue (worn out gun barrels) is having
Russia continues to focus on the Bakhmut region while working to reposition forces to counter the expected Ukrainian offensive in Kherson Oblast.
Kyiv front ——
NSR
Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts - ——
NSR
Eastern (Kharkiv) front -
Russian artillery continues to target locations around Kharkiv. Russian army shelled Slobodsky district of Kharkiv with S-300 missiles.
Russian forces did not conduct any confirmed ground attacks between Izyum and Slovyansk. Only covered the area with scattered artillery.
Donetsk Oblast ——
Russian limited artillery fire hit the eastern and southern margins of the Slovyansk-Siversk-Bakhmut salient.
Russian forces continued to attempt to advance towards Bakhmut with little to no success along axises to the north, east and southeast. Russian advances are receiving a heaver cover of artillery here than elsewhere.
Russian forces conducted several limited ground attacks to the north and west of Donetsk City. One of the biggest conflicts was in the vicinity of Pisky (about 5km northwest of Donetsk City). Here Wagner Group forces are attempting to spear head the attack. Wagner is also involved in the other attacks in the sector, including the battle for Avdiivka. The presence of Wagner forces here indicates Russia considers these attacks to be a priority.
Russian troops at Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, besides firing artillery from the facility are moving explosives near the power units.
Crimean Front -
Russian artillery scattered along the Kherson Oblast boundary. Russian forces also continued to target Nikopol, Mykolaiv City, Dnipropetrovsk, and Odesa Oblasts with artillery, MLRS, and missile strikes.
Russian forces continued to attack the Ukrainian bridgehead over the Inhulets River near Davydiv Brid.
Western / Central Ukraine ——
NSR
Russian Territory - ——
Governor of Kursk region of Russia claims saboteur attack on military airfield in Kursk region foiled this morning
Partisan Resistance ——
Russian media report assassination attempt on deputy head of occupation authorities in Nova Kakhovka Vitaliy Hur
Partisans claimed responsibility for explosion at police station in Berdiansk this morning
Ammunition / logistical sites hit ——
The Ukrainian Southern Operational Command reported destroying three Russian ammunition depots in Kherson City, and in Prydniprovske and Tokarivka (both situated east of Kherson City along the Dnipro River)
Fires from a suspected logistics/ammo depot reported near Snizhne in occupied Donetsk Oblast.
Detonations coming from the city of Tokmak, Zaporizhzhia region, occupied by the Russian army, suspected logistics/ammo site.
OUTLOOK ——
Avdiivka and Bakhmut are considered to remain the priority of Russian offensive actions in the near term. All other sectors appear to being stripped of available forces and moved to counter the expected Ukraine offensive into Kherson Oblast. Ukraine deep interdiction of logistic and C3 is complicating the Russian preparations for their defense of the oblast.
I expect the current activity to remain relatively the same for then term. I’m watching closely the involvement of the Wagner group in the push for Bakhmut. They were key to the Russian win in the a month ago that resulted in Russia gaining control of the remaining potion of the Luhansk Oblast. They took a lot of losses in the effort and was able to succeed because of massive artillery support. That support for the current fight is significantly less, exposing them more to the Ukraine defensive fires.
Europe / NATO General -
The EU condemns Russia’s military activities around Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. This is a serious and irresponsible breach of nuclear safety rules and another example of Russia’s disregard for international norms. IAEA must gain access
Israel -
Crap, try to go to the county fair and all heck breaks out.
Israel unleashed a wave of airstrikes Friday on Gaza, killing at least 10 people, including a senior militant, according to Palestinian officials. Israeli military officials said they had struck pre-emptively after several days of threats from militant groups in Gaza, who were angered by the arrest of a senior Islamic Jihad figure in the West Bank earlier this week.
Hours later, Palestinian militants started launching barrages of rockets as air-raid sirens wailed in Israel and the two sides drew closer to another all-out war.
Palestinian Islamic Jihad: “As part of its initial response to the crime of assassinating the great commander, “Taysir al-Jabari” and his martyred brothers... Saraya al-Quds bombarded Tel Aviv, the central cities and the envelope with more than 100 rockets.” The military wing of the PIJ in the west bank reportedly announces a general mobilization
Paticipation expanded to a number of other second tier islamic terror goups in Gaza - PIJ Saraya Al-Quds, DFLP National Resistance Brigades, Al-Aqsa Martyr’s Brigade, Martyr Abdel Qader Al-Husseini Brigades and Al-Nasser Salah Al-Din Brigades have all taken responsibility for firing rockets towards Israel today.
The Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine (DFLP) military wing National Resistance Brigades have joined Saraya Al-Quds in launching rockets into Israel, they have taken responsibility for launching rockets towards Netivot. DFLP is a secular Palestinian Marxist-Leninist faction.
A press conference was held yesterday by militants in the West Bank city of Jenin. Going by the photo it appears members of Hamas, Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades, Palestinian Islamic Jihad and either the DFLP or PFLP were present. However, Hamas units in Gaza have been keeping a low profile, not joining the rocket attacks.
Egyptian Foreign Ministry: We are conducting intensive contacts around the clock with the aim of containing the situation in Gaza and working to calm down. Egypt conveyed a message to Hamas from Israel “if it enters the fighting there will be a broad escalation and Hamas will pay a heavy price.”
A delegation of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) is expected to arrive in Cairo to meet with the Egyptian General Intelligence officials in an attempt to end the ongoing round of escalation.
25,000 IDF reservists have been called-up. IDF entering “emergency mode.” Israel has said it will launch a “week of operations” against Palestinian Islamic Jihad [PIJ] in the Gaza Strip.
Israel announce ‘Operation Dawn’. Several airstrikes targeting high ranking members of militant groups in Gaza reported.
Exchanges of rockets and air strikes continue as I write.
OBSERVATION - As noted yesterday, tensions were skyrocketing between Israel and PIJ. A lot of rockets being tossed by the islamic terror groups, but it is no where near the levels see with the fight with Hamas about a year ago. These groups generally have fewer rockets and of poorer quality, meaning higher failure rates, more easily handled by Iron Dome.
Israeli counter strikes decimating well planned identified terror facilities. It is also apparent from reports that Israel is also trying to focus on leadership deception of PIJ forces. Israel is being careful to avoid Hamas forces and facilities.
It seems that PIJ is already making contact with Egypt to try to get a cease fire - though openly they deny the actions. I suspect that Israel will continue to pound PIJ, et al until they are satisfied that they’ve gotten the desired leadership and destroyed enough facilities. Israel has already announced the operations will likely last fore ‘weeks’.
One concern is the call up of reserves and going into “emergency mode”. Though Israel likes to call up extra forces as backup, this situation is different in that there is an inference that a major ground operation could be in the offing.
Armenia/Azerbaijan -
Azerbaijani Defense Ministry reports on taking control of Mount Buzdukh and nearby heights in Karabakh.
OBSERVATION - The Azeri’s are picking off low hanging fruit while Russia is distracted by Ukraine.
Reminds me of the time years back when the smarter greenies discovered it costs $1.29 to produce a dollars worth of energy using ethanol... EVERYTHING HAS AN ENERGY SIGNATURE: rare earth elements are only part of the problem - there's also the energy used to extract them from the earth, to process them, and to ship them here - AND the fact 'batteries' using these elements have to be dumped and replaced every 6 years or so...
Best guess?
And a waaaaay we go.
Wuhan virus -
See potential extension of the national emergency under Political below.
Economy -
US diesel exports last month rose to 1.4 million barrels a day, a five-year high, according to data from oil analytics firm Vortexa compiled by Bloomberg. Europe is buying more US diesel as the continent tries to wean itself from Russia. Latin America has also stepped up imports, in part to replace lost volumes from Europe. “The short-term diesel outlook is one of tight fundamentals through the coming winter,” ESAI Energy analysts including Linda Giesecke said. East Coast seasonal distillate stockpiles, which include diesel, have languished at record lows every single week since May, government data show.
OBSERVATION - This in the face of diesel shortages and high prices here in the US. US heating oil prices will be hit as well.
Invasion of Illegals -
TX has shipped their first batch of illegals to NYC. Liberal heads are bursting as they must face the same problems red cities are from biden air lifting illegals into the middle of the country.
Biden / Harris watch -
biden tested negative for wuhan. Harris no where to be seen.
CW2/Domestic violence -
Following FBI’s Wray’s testimony on capitol hill, it is clear that they no longer wear the white hats and are deeply corrupted - not that we didn’t know this already, but just another data point of proof.
POLITICAL FRONT -
Politico is reporting on the likelihood that Joe Biden is preparing to extend the national COVID-19 state of emergency through the 2022 midterm elections.
The Biden administration is expected to extend the Covid-19 public health emergency once again, ensuring that federal measures expanding access to health coverage, vaccines and treatments remain in place beyond the midterm elections, three people with knowledge of the matter told POLITICO.
The planned renewal follows extensive deliberations among Biden officials over the future of the emergency declaration, including some who questioned whether it was time to let the designation lapse.
Under the proposed extension, the Department of Health and Human Services would continue the declaration beyond the November elections and potentially into early 2023 — pushing the U.S. into its fourth calendar year under a Covid public health emergency
OBSERVATION - Placed this here because of the high potential that this ‘emergency declaration’ may be used to justify continued use of mail in ballots in an effort to cheat the midterm votes. There is no justification to continuing the emergency.
China -
China continues to fly plains into Taiwan’s ADZ and naval vessels along the midpoint line in the Taiwan Straits.
Tensions remain high.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - The Battle for Donbas is on - now in its sixth month of the war since starting on Feb 24th.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russia now essentially controls Luhansk Oblast, Russian forces have modified their immediate goals to try to capture Bakhmut and Avdiivka in the Donetsk region
ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.
********
Russia has lost the initiative, now responding to Ukraine rather than the other way around.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST - Hot with widely scattered thunderstorms over parts of the 10 day forecast period
24 HOUR ROUND UP -
Action on the front lines appears to have let up slightly, though could be just a reporting aberration or a pause brought on by forces being shifted around to the south.
More ships with Ukrainian grain have successfully departed ports headed to Turkey and ports beyond. Even with the agreement holding, Ukraine exports are expected to be only 40% of normal.
Kyiv front ——
NSR
Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts - ——
NSR other than scattered artillery fire
Eastern (Kharkiv) front -
Russian artillery continues to target locations around Kharkiv. Kharkiv itself was hit by several missiles overnight.
Artillery support to a recon in force by Russian units south of Izyum. No terrain gains as the recon was repulsed.
Donetsk Oblast ——
Russian limited artillery fire hit the eastern and southern margins of the Slovyansk-Siversk-Bakhmut salient.
Russia continued attacks towards Bakhmut with little to no gains.
Russians attempted to push towards Avdiivka again but were turned back.
Scattered Russian artillery fire along the Zaporizhzhia Oblast LOC.
Crimean Front -
Relatively quiet except for Russian artillery focusing on the Ukranian river crossing at Davydiv Brid.
Western / Central Ukraine ——
NSR
I suspect there are continuing Russian missile strikes, just nothing being reported hitting my data feeds.
Russian Territory - ——
NSR.
Partisan Resistance ——
Leaflets from the Russian-occupied city of Kherson keep appearing on social media channels, depicting posters with warnings directed at the occupiers: “We know all your patrol routes,” they read. And: “Kherson is Ukrainian.”
Ammunition / logistical sites hit ——
NSR
OUTLOOK ——
Lacking the overwhelming artillery support, Russian forces continue to flail themselves on Ukrainan defenses. Russian unit sizes appear to be company level attacks, with poor coordination. This is what cause them to loose so many troops in the initial fights. In the current fights for Avdiivka and Bakhmut, this is a very obvious shortfall.
Making matters worse, The effects of Russian forces being moved to the south to counter Ukrainan offensive threats into Kherson and now Zaporizhzhia Oblasts is becoming painfully aware to the forces remaining in the east.
Meanwhile, Ukraine continues to prepare the battlefield for its anticipated offensive. Russian logistics and command posts get nailed on a daily basis. Overall, Ukraine has seized the initiative across the whole battlefield.
Israel -
Israel and PIJ et al continue to shoot at each other even as I type.
It is estimated act the islamists have fired more than 700 rockets from Gaza since the start of the conflict.
The Iron Dome have intercepted 97% of the rockets that directly threatened Israelis.
An estimated 120+ rockets have landed in Gaza and killed innocent Palestinians. One incident occurred in Jabaliya, northern Gaza. Video shows a missile doing a 180 and striking the area, killing dozens.
Israel has since the start of the conflict focused on decapitating the PIJ leadership. They have been relatively successful.
- Israeli air force killed senior Jihad field commander Abu Tariq al Mudallal in Rafah at his home.
- Khaled Mansour, leader of the Islamic Jihad in southern Gaza, identified as the military commander killed in Rafah.
- Israel’s IDF took out PIJ’s southern Gaza military commander Khaled Mansour
- IDF killed after striking his northern Gaza commander Tayseer Jabari .
- Israeli security forces arrested senior Islamic Jihad member, Nasr Amour, after storming his home in Anza, south of Jenin.
- Bassam Theyab, a senior member of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad has been arrested after his house was stormed by Israeli forces southwest of Jenin.
PIJ Spokesperson: “We have demands. If they are met, this round of violence will end, including the release of Commander Bassam Al-Sa’adi who was arrested in Jenin camp”. Islamic Jihad spokesperson to Al-Jazeera, “Currently there is no talk of a ceasefire.”
Israeli spokesmen state that Israel should prepare for operations to continue at least another week.
OBSERVATION - Hamas is keeping their nose out of this fight and Israel is taking steps to avoid Hamas. PIJ is a competing islamist group with a lot of Iranian support that has been gaining in ‘popularity’ in Gaza, challenging Hamas’ control more and more. Hamas would like nothing more than to have them neutralized as a competitor. Israel sees the PIJ as one of the major agitators on the rise in the West Bank and wants to put them down - hard.
Mutual goals
Note the number of rockets fired, PIJ and its allied second tier islamc groups and not shooting the volumes of rockets Hamas did last year, nor are they any where near as reliable. Videos show many rockets going off transjectory and falling back into Gaza.
Israel says this operation will last for the near term.