Threat Matrix 2022

Welcome to the Threat Matrix 2022. Keep up to date on the multiple threats to our country and life.

Well, as the echos of the fourth fade into the 5th, I think about the hundreds of dollars per minute expended by ordinary citizens, across my little city here in the Redoubt. Where every one got that money from for such fire power amazes me given the costs put on us by biden’s crashing of our economy. But still spectacular just the same.
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Globalism / Great Reset -

Dutch mayors declaring states of emergency and mobile police units deploying to disperse farmers protesting the “nitrogen” rules for cows under a national “climate change” policy.
Blockades at food distribution centers led to empty shelves in Dutch stores today.
There were also tractors and other vehicles staging blockades on highways and at bridges across the Netherlands among other locations.
Arrests have been made. There have been fines issues to hundreds in connection with the blockades.

OBSERVATION - GGR mandated global warming emission policies are being applied to the periphery countries, those deemed by GGR insiders/country’s politicians, as being the most compliant or ready for imposition. However, these farmers are not going down without a fight and may temporary awaken the citizens to the utter nonsense these “climate change” policies will have on their country. REMEMBER - He how controls the food can control the population.
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Wuhan virus -

Former White House Coronavirus Response Coordinator Dr. Deborah Birx revealed that the federal government was relying on “hope” that COVID-19 vaccines would prevent infection when officials publicly stated that Americans who received the jab would become immune to the virus.

OBSERVATION - Though Birx et al would be loathe to admitting it, the jab has in many ways now is showing itself as making the plandemic even worse.
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Economy -

Provident Bank, based in New Jersey, found that 83% of respondents slashed personal spending due to soaring prices of food and gasoline, with 23% indicating they had to make “drastic changes” to their spending for financial survival.

According to the survey results of 600 adults, 10.5% of respondents eliminated all non-essential purchases, and nearly 72% said they made at least some changes to personal travel habits.

While some consumers have cut back on some non-essential spending, like dining out and unnecessary travel, others reported much more drastic changes such as skipping meals, conserving water, and eliminating meat from their diets. People are feeling an immense amount of financial pressure right now. Unfortunately, this is not surprising after the Labor Department reported earlier this month that the United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) hit a 40-year high in May. — Provident Bank

Respondents said rising prices of groceries and gas had put the most significant dent in their pocketbooks. According to the survey results, 53% said they now spend between $101 - $500 more per month on groceries, and 32% spend between $101 - $250 more on gas. They also said that skyrocketing prices of baby products, meat, utilities, household goods, milk, and alcohol have led to economic discomfort.

OBSERVATION - Except for the wealthy (who’s support for biden seems to remain high), this has hit EVERYONE. Sorry democrats, Roe isn’t what will drive the midterms, economics will.
LET ME BREAK IT TO YOU - Even a red tsunami this fall will not turn things around, as the embedded swamp in DC will keep the momentum going towards melt down. The GGR needs this to gain global power.

Driven by rising energy costs, consumer prices in Eurozone jumped 8.6% over the year through June, hitting another record high since the creation of the Euro in 1999. Euro area annual inflation is expected to be 8.6% in June 2022, up from 8.1% in May according to a flash estimate from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union.

OBSERVATION - Yes, this is Europe, not the US but it serves as an indicator of what to expect in the US as well, since global economies are so tightly tied now a days.

More than 5 million barrels of oil that were part of a historic U.S. emergency oil reserves release aimed at lowering domestic fuel prices were exported to Europe and Asia last month, according to data and sources, even as U.S. gasoline and diesel prices touched record highs.

OBSERVATION - These barrels of oil were ‘sour’, technically high sulphur that our refineries are poorly set up to handle - desiring the ‘sweet’, lower sulphur oil like from the middle east. What isn’t seen is a reverse flow back of either sweet oil or refined gasoline and related products.

Rail congestion is threatening grain deliveries to feed users, according to the National Grain and Feed Association (NGFA), which reports that some major meat producers have very low supplies. California-based Foster Farms reported feed shortages so bad that they’re considering killing off millions of chickens. The NGFA is warning that conditions may worsen by September.

OBSERVATION - I noted this story a few weeks ago. Things are now getting worse and may even worsen still. Poultry prices to continue to be high for the foreseeable future.

Global oil and gas operations will come under additional strain this week as workers in Norway begin striking against low pay. Trade union officials say they have plans to escalate the strikes this week, which will lead to a 50-60% reduction in oil and gas exports.

OBSERVATION - Direct impacts to Europe that will echo back to the US as Europe looks market wide for replacement during the strike.

Citigroup is warning that a recession this year could cause the price of oil to collapse to $65/barrel, a roughly 40% drop from today’s price of $105. The estimate forecasts an eventual decline to $45 by the end of 2023 if the recession is prolonged. Currently, Citi’s economists do not expect a recession, however, they expect that recessionary risks will continue to increase as the Federal Reserve navigates its interest rate hiking cycle. (FO)

OBSERVATION - This reads to me like hopium. A recession will impact oil demand, but also hit production hard as well as the oil industry. Citi is swimming against the flow by being anti-recessionist, as most major banks are ‘banking’ on it.
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Invasion of Illegals -

“We were very pleased with the Supreme Court’s decision” that says the Biden administration can end the Trump administration’s “remain in Mexico” immigration policy, Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas said on Sunday. “And we continue to enforce immigration law, as is our legal responsibility,” he said.

OBSERVATION - Obscenities and curses at Mayorkas.
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Biden / Harris watch -

Biden renewed his gun control push following the July 4 attack on a parade in the Highland Park suburb of Chicago.

OBSERVATION - As noted below, the shooter was another wacked out leftie - perhaps democrats / leftists should be disarmed.

OBSERVATION - Conservative commentators and analysts are viewing the recent unfavorable news reporting on biden and his junta as part of an effort to get him removed from office or at least prevent him from trying to run in 2024. Their problem is that they are stuck with harris or the evil witch of Arkansas - hillary.
Quite frankly, I’m surprised biden has remained in office this long.
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CW2/Domestic violence -

Considerable gun and other violence over the 4th. Two key events

First - 22-year-old Robert E. Crimo III, killed 8 in a wealthy Chicago suburb of Highland Park, wounding dozens. He was a wannabe rapper and leftist. Social media is currently being overrun by people trying to say he was was a MAGA guy. The evidence that he was part of or at least supportive of Antifa and other far-left domestic terrorist groups is far greater.
He has been captured by police. Evidentially he was known to law enforcement, and his father, a former mayoral candidate who ran for mayor in 2019 was well aware of his son’s mental issues. I’ve not seen any word on the type of rifle used other than it was ‘high powered’.

Secondly, Riots broke out in Akron, Ohio, following the shooting by police of Jayland Walker. The incident occurred in June, but release of police bodycam footage has sparked the riots. Rioters claim he was unarmed when shot, but facts show he fired on police. BLM/Antfa affiliated groups are pushing the violence and there is evidence they art trying to build the same narrative as with Kenosha, Wisconsin and Brooklyn Center, Minnesota. Critical that we keep eyes on this to see if it gains traction as the midterms approach, serving as a catalyst for more violence.

Other shootings and violence elsewhere across the nation. Notably in the Antifa/BLM strongholds like Chicago, Portland, DC, etc. In DC Antifa militants in black bloc marched for a direct action over abortion on Monday night, chanting the threat popularized by terror group, Jane’s Revenge: “If abortions aren’t safe, neither are you.”

OBSERVATION - The Antifa loving leftist nut job in Highland Park doesn’t help the democrat narrative and may soon drop off the screens. BLM enhanced rage in Akron may develop into something more wide spread but hasn’t really gotten the press coverage that the 2020 riots did. This does show that another summer of rioting is building.

The city of Orlando, Fla., is apologizing for an invitation to attend its July 4 fireworks display that declared the country is now full of “so much division, hate and unrest.”
“A lot of people probably don’t want to celebrate our nation right now, and we can’t blame them. When there is so much division, hate and unrest, why on earth would you want to have a party celebrating any of it?,” reads the announcement sent last week that appears to try to be funny or sarcastic.
“But in all seriousness, you know in your heart, Fourth of July fireworks are amazing, especially when you are standing in 90° heat, 100% humidity, next to 100,000 of your closest friends,” the statement continued. “In that moment, something takes over and we all become united in an inexplicable bond. Yes, America is in strife right now, but you know what ... we already bought the fireworks.”
However, city officials issued an apology Saturday, amid the backlash, according to local NBC affiliate WESH-TV2.
“The city of Orlando sincerely regrets the negative impact our words have had on some in our community,” the statement reads. “We understand these words offended some of our residents, which was not our intent. We value the freedoms we have in this country and are thankful to the men and women who fought and continue to fight for those.”

OBSERVATION - Blue cities/leadership cannot but help to attack America, as its founding core principles are antithetical to their marxist beliefs and goals.

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Domestic Terror -

Article from Front-page mag (h/t Oorang) discusses the likelihood of Iranian terror cells in the US preparing to go into action mode. The biggest ongoing threat is to kill former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and CIA Director Gina Haspel in retaliation for their role in the drone strike that killed Suleymani and 17 others on Route Irish at the Baghdad airport. They have other capabilities as well.

OBSERVATION - Back in the before times, much of TM was focused on AQ (and other islamists) terror cells continuing to operate in the US after 9/11. Key to cells of this sort is keeping off the radar screen and hitting when the time is ripe. Well, this country is a ripe as ever. Iran (and radical islamic elements) recognize strength and will exploit weakness. biden is projecting weakness on a mammoth scale. Given the key emphasis of assassinating officials associated with the drone strike that killed Suleymani, I think the strong probability of an assassination attempt is the most likely course of action rather than a larger terror strike. Much less chance of blow back.

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Strategic Activity / Deployments

U.S. Air Force F-35A stealth fighters arrived in South Korea on Tuesday on their first publicly announced visit since 2017 . Joint military drills had been publicly scaled back in recent years, first in 2018 because of efforts to engage diplomatically with North Korea and later because of the COVID-19 pandemic. The six F-35As will be in South Korea for 10 days, South Korea’s Ministry of Defence said in a statement.
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China -

South Asia is becoming a growing problem for China. India (officially) and a growing number of Pakistanis (unofficially) see China as a major threat. Currently China continues to move more troops to the Indian border to confront Indian forces and slowly advance into Indian territory. China has not been idle in areas where there is little direct military confrontation. Along the Indian border Chinese troops and engineers continue building roads, structures and fortifications. Lately the border conflicts with China have remained quiet, mainly because China has more urgent problems to deal with. One of those problems does impact India. China backs the military government in Myanmar (Burma).
Read more at this link for a good detailed account.

https://www.strategypage.com/qnd/china/articles/20220705.aspx

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North/South Korea -

NUKE WATCH on going.

Continued warnings of a potential nuclear test at any time as OSINT suggests that work at the test site is complete and all is ready.
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Russia -
WAR WATCH - The Battle for Donbas is on - now in its the fourth month of the war. It has now been 77 days since the Russians launched the Battle of the Donbas.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russia now essentially controls Luhansk Oblast, Russian forces are now focusing on pushing toward the towns of Siversk, Feroivka and Bakhmut in the Donetsk region
It is likely that there will be two simultaneous actions. First, Russian forces that expended themselves in the main effort will pause and maybe even rotated to the rear to re-arm and re-man. Secondly, Russian forces on the flanks will pursue attacks backed by greater artillery support.

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

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Putin reportedly celebrate and congratulates his generals on the seizure of Luhansk Oblast, and indicates that the fight will go on to seize the rest of the Donbas region. Putin also stated that the Russian units that participated in the battle for Lysychansk should rest to increase their combat capabilities.

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Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Hot and dry over the 10 day forecast period with chances of thunderstorms.

The weekend has been rather hard on Ukraine forces, being forced to withdraw out of Luhansk Oblast. But one has to keep in mind, it took Russia 77 days to achieve this Phase 2 goal!!! Huge amounts of men and munitions were expended in a tactical situation that Russia already had an advantage in - closure of a pocket of Ukrainian resistance. Some have likened this to other battles of WW2, noting that this battle has far exceeded the others in time, personnel lost and material.

24 HOUR ROUND UP -
Ukraine forces are withdrawing to a new series of defensive lines from their stronghold in Sloviansk to Bakhmut, some 45 kilometers to the south. Ukrainian missile units continue pinpoint attacks on Russian ammo/munition depots.

Kyiv front -
Nothing significant to report.

Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts -
More Russian artillery fire scattered around the regions. Russian army launched over 60 projectiles, including missiles at Sumy region this morning. Damage in Shostka and Seredyna Buda

Eastern (Kharkiv) front -
Russian forces continued air, artillery, and rocket strikes on Ukrainian military infrastructure and settlements north, northeast, and east of Kharkiv. Russian counterattacks largely unsuccessful

Donetsk Oblast -
Fluid tactical situation. Russians continue to shell and bomb throughout the region. Russia continues to launch attacks through the sector.

Considerable artillery attacks continue in eastern Ukraine with intensified shelling of Sloviansk and the neighboring city of Kramatorsk. Reports that Russian forces are in the process of clearing pockets of Ukraine resistance. Further reports that Ukraine is withdrawing forces in an orderly manner to the west. As noted above, Ukraine is falling back on defensive lines from their stronghold in Sloviansk to Bakhmut, some 45 kilometers to the south.

Russian forces are beginning to institute administrative occupational control over Severodonetsk and Lysychansk.

Evidence that Russia is moving forces south of Izyum in the direction of Barvinkove, suggesting that Russian forces are preparing for renewed offensives southeast of Izyum towards Barvinkove. Russian forces in this area have been largely stopped by Ukraine forces over the past month. NASA FIRMS data for July 4 showed large concentrations of heat anomalies in the wooded areas to the southeast of Izyum indicating probable locations for Russian indirect fire and Ukrainian counterbattery fires.

OBSERVATION - NASA FIRMS satellite imagery has been a newfound tool for OSINT analysis, providing detailed supporting documentation of reported major artillery or missile strikes.

Eastern (Donbas Separatist Region) Front -
Intense artillery and air strikes by Russian / separatists along the entire front.

Explosion at Russian / Separatist military warehouses at Topaz plant in Donetsk.

Russian ammo dump in Stakhanov (Kadiivka), Luhansk region hit.

Russian ammunition dump was hit far behind the lines in Snizhne, Donetsk Oblast (approximately 75 km from the frontlines). Fire lasted for hours with numerous, massive secondary explosions.

Crimea Front -
Ukrainian forces reportedly struck Russian ammunition depots in Dibrivne, Kharkiv Oblast.
Russian army launched missiles at Bashtanka, Mykolaiv and Shostka in Mykolaiv region.

NASA’s FIRMS data showed abnormally high numbers of fires along the Mykolaiv-Kherson Oblast frontline on July 4, indicating intense indirect fire attacks. Russian and Ukrainian forces continued shelling across the line of contact along the entire Southern Axis on July 4.

Russia has been taking action to protect the bridge from Crimea into Russia. This has been a key artery of their resupply to the fight. Recently, they conducted a ‘smoke’ exercise to try to obscure the bridge. They have also deployed barges with metal cubes designed to confuse radar targeting by weapons system. Clearly they are concerned that Ukraine has some tricks up their sleeves and that by taking out the bridge Russia would be faced with a grave logistical situation.

Western / Central Ukraine -
Ukrainian air defense shot down 6 missiles over Dnipro city this morning, 7th hit a house in Pokrov

Russian Territory -
The Bryansk Governor says Zernovo village on the border of Ukraine was shelled.

The governor of Kursk oblast announced the shelling of villages on the border with Ukraine.

Partisan Resistance -
According to reports, two trains en route from Crimea to occupied Melitopol have been disabled today. One went off the rails apparently due to guerrilla actions and the second was struck by MLRS near Melitopol.

Ukrainian partisans reportedly blew up a railway bridge near occupied Lyubimivka between #Melitopol and Tokmak, Zaporizhia Oblast on July 3 and reportedly derailed a separate Russian armored train near Melitopol on July 2.

OUTLOOK - Battles in eastern Ukraine continue to be vicious and fluid.

BLUF - With the apparent fall of Luhansk Oblast to Russia, Russia’s next moves(s) come into question. Some think Russia will temporally pause to consolidate control of the recently captured territory before pressing the attack westward towards Ukrainian positions in Siversk before turning to Slovyansk and Bakhmut. This assumes a Ukrainian withdrawal to Siversk allowing Ukrainian forces reduce the risk of immediate encirclement, but Ukrainian forces may continue a fighting withdrawal to a line near the E40 highway from Slovyansk to Bakhmut. Russian forces will likely continue efforts to move west of the T1302 Bakhmut-Lysychansk highway to eventually drive on Bakhmut and Siversk, although some analysts and observers question their ability to do so successfully following losses sustained during attempts to take Lysychansk is questionable.

Putin’s statement indicating a limited pause in the operation for those forces that fought for the capture of Luhansk Oblast. However, he indicated that these forces comprised one of three ‘battle groups’ and that the other two groups will continue (proceed?) with their attacks. I’ve not seen any OSINT analysis of these battle groups, but I strongly suspect that they are units north and south of the former Ukrainian pocket. One being units operating out of Izyum and the other out of the Popasna or Donetsk region to the south. This may signal the resurgence of the large envelopment maneuver initially attempted in April. Russian has been expending a lot of artillery rounds in both regions and with artillery assets being freed up following the Luhansk Oblast we could see more.

However, such a maneuver, once again, has the potential of Russian forces out running their supply train. Being more widely separated, supporting fires will become more difficult to effect. And the BIG question is just how combat capable are the Russian and Separatist units? It was suggested that the only reason Russia captured the small portion of Luhansk Oblast was the withering artillery support they dished out (10:1 advantage).

The increased ability of Ukrainian forces to target critical Russian military facilities with Western-provided weapon systems, plus relaying of key target locations by partisans is beginning to create new headaches for the Russian supply chain. Russia keeps showing up with tons of artillery. Will these hits make any dent? This is where I see the unspoken partisan efforts providing time critical targeting data to Ukrainan artillery / missile units. You can’t hop ammo dumps around like you can a tactical unit on a moments notice.
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Belarus -

The Belarusian Ministry of Transport Minsk has announced that it has asked Lithuania’s state-owned railway company LTG to relaunch passenger train services between Minsk and Vilnius.
Lithuania has declared that it is out of the question.
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Europe / NATO General -
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All thirty NATO members signed the accession documents to expand the alliance, providing the new members access to intelligence and diplomatic resources. Finland and Sweden’s foreign ministers signed their portion, leaving each current and new member’s country to ratify the documents in their legislatures and implement NATO’s common defense provision. Turkey’s foreign minister said the U.S. will supply 40 modernized F-16s in exchange for their cooperation.

Turkey halted a Russian-flagged cargo ship off its Black Sea coast and was investigating a Ukrainian claim that it was carrying stolen grain.

Bulgaria expelled Russian “diplomats” on espionage charges. This is half the Russian diplomatic presence in Bulgaria.
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Israel -

The IAF begins a drill over Romania, dubbed “Blue Sky,” aimed at training the C-130 and C-130J transport aircraft for flights in unfamiliar territory at low altitudes, the military says

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Syria -

There was an explosion near a US military base in the Al-Omar oil field, east of Deir ez-Zor. Few details, though no US personnel were reported to be injured.
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Turkey -

See seizure of Russian cargo ships under Europe/NATO general.

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Misc of Note -

“I’ve been sort of screaming for a month about how bad the diagnostic situation is for monkeypox. And that really was a clear error, preventable, and it’s very clear that this administration has not learned lessons from early COVID,” said James Krellenstein, co-founder of the HIV treatment advocacy group Prep4All.

OBSERVATION - The pox remains confined to the Gay community and efforts are under way to spread fear to the normal community.
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Globalism / Great Reset -

Effective now, allll new vehicles sold in the EU will have mandatory black boxes fitted that record technical data and will be accessible by authorities, greasing the skids for surveillance-powered speed limiting technology.
While for the time being, drivers can opt-out of using the feature, privacy advocates fear the technology will become mandatory once it is properly rolled out.
Back in 2019, the European Transport Safety Council (ETSC) announced that July 6 would mark the day when all car manufacturers would be forced to fit new models with a system that keeps track of technical data.
The data recorded will include “the vehicle’s speed, braking, steering wheel angle, its incline on the road, and whether the vehicle’s various safety systems were in operation, starting with seatbelts.”
Although insurance companies won’t have immediate access to the data, it will be available to law enforcement.
Authorities claim the data will be “anonymized,” meaning the information can’t be used to identify the owner of the vehicle, although only the incredibly naive would plausibly believe that.

OBSERVATION - Control of peoples movement and of course their carbon consumption are key stated goals of the GGR crowd. This is just an incremental step in implementing that goal.

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Wuhan virus -

A lawsuit filed by whistleblower Brook Jackson alleging Pfizer and two of its contractors manipulated data and committed other acts of fraud during Pfizer’s COVID-19 clinical trials is paused following a motion by the defendants to dismiss the case. “Pfizer claims they can get away with fraud as long as the government would write them a check despite knowing about the fraud,” attorney Robert Barnes said.
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Economy -

Fed minutes due out today, markets are uneasy. The Federal Reserve is expected to raise their target rate by 75 basis points at the FOMC meeting today. We are already seeing Fed rate hikes being priced into the mortgage markets, as Bankrate’s 30-year mortgage rate fell to 5.57% after rising above 6% in June. The reason? Recession fears have caused Treasury yields to fall.

BREAKING -Brent crude futures drop below $100 for the first time since April 25 as recession fears fuel a broader selloff.

OBSERVATION - Oil interests see a recession cutting into oil demand as economies tank. Given global oil insecurity, this drop is incredible.

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Invasion of Illegals -

Multiple Texas counties on Tuesday will declare that the migrant crisis at the southern border is an “invasion,” Fox News has learned, a move that could lead to similar declarations across the state.
Kinney County Judge Tully Shahan is expected to announce the move at a news conference Tuesday afternoon, along with a number of other officials from other counties who will join him.
Kinney County Attorney Brent Smith told Fox News Digital that he believes approximately 12 to15 counties could end up having declared an invasion by the end of the month.

OBSERVATION - Potential game changer. - invasion declaration provides more tools for state and locals to fight illegals where feds refuse to.

The Department of Justice filed a lawsuit against Arizona in an attempt to block a law requiring voters to show proof of citizenship before casting their ballots in federal elections.
The DOJ argues the requirement is “a textbook violation of the National Voter Registration Act,” according to The Hill.

OBSERVATION - Clearly the policy of the Biden regime is to permit non-citizens to vote. Never mind that Arizona is fully within the constitution to do so.

In an illegal move that some are calling backdoor amnesty, the Biden Administration is on track to dismiss immigration charges against one million illegal aliens before the midterm elections. The Washington Examiner’s Anna Giaritelli noted Monday on Twitter that Presidentish Joe Biden’s Department of Justice is “quietly dismissing illegal immigration cases at a rate never seen before.”

OBSERVATION - Just noted rumors of a blanket amnesty EO by biden prior to the mids, that would be a major step to legalizing them. Just dropping charges just leaves them here and under an illegal, non-citizen status.

Mexico granted 3,000 temporary resident visas Sunday to migrants hoping to cross the U.S.-Mexico border, according to NBC 7 San Diego The migrants with the visas will be allowed to stay in the country for up to 30 days, according to NBC 7 San Diego. “We are going to continue to the United States in buses because we already have the permit. We no longer need to walk,” a Venezuelan, William Molina, who is making the journey with his 10 family members, said after getting the visa, according to NBC 7 San Diego. The group Molina is with arrived in Tapachula, Mexico, on Friday.

More than 476,000 migrants eluded apprehension by the Border Patrol this fiscal year, according to a source within Customs and Border Protection. The total already eclipses the 389,000 got-aways from FY2021.

OBSERVATION - Actions by biden et al are guaranteed to make matters worse within the next month. The utter chaos as hundreds of thousands of illegals hammer border and other cities and states. Hovering over that is the potential for an amnesty . . . and matters will just get worse.
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Biden / Harris watch -

The latest Harvard-Harris poll reports that two-thirds of voters think Biden’s too old for the job, and sixty percent doubt his mental fitness for the presidency. Even among Democrats, 27% doubt Biden’s mental fitness and 34% think he’s too old for the job regardless. A later question shows 71% oppose a second Biden run for the presidency. Biden’s overall job approval rating dropped to a tie for the lowest in the series, 38/57, the latter a new high for overall disapproval. Biden’s issue ratings are almost all underwater except coronavirus response (50%)

OBSERVATION - As I noted in previous posting, increased negative reporting no biden and his fitness as president is expected to increase as dems try to push him out of the way as the dead weight he is to the path.
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CW2/Domestic violence -

The suspected gunman in the deadly shooting at an Independence Day parade in Highland Park, Illinois, had prior contact with law enforcement, police said Tuesday.
Robert “Bobby” E. Crimo III, 21, had two previous encounters with police in Highland Park, with the most recent in September 2019 over a “mental health issue” in which Crimo threatened to kill members of his family, Christopher Covelli, a spokesman for the Lake County Major Crime Task Force said in a news briefing.
Twice in 2019 police were called to the home of the degenerate who shot up the parade in Highland Park yesterday. In neither case was he arrested, local cops said today. Additionally, his father specifically vouched for the knives and members of the family also did not “provide information on threats or mental health that would have allowed law enforcement to take additional action,” the ISP statement added.
“Additionally, no Firearms Restraining Order was filed, nor any order of protection,” ISP said.

OBSERVATION - This shows it doesn’t matter what weapon is used. He was already a threat with knives and swords (16 knives, a dagger, and a sword) - serious enough of a threat to have them removed. His ‘family“ (particularly his politically minded father) knew full well of his mental instability but did nothing when he later purchased guns.

Following six violent direct actions by Antifa in Portland within 10 days, PortlandPolice has formally asked the FBI to help lead investigations.

OBSERVATION - Its Portland after all.

In Minneapolis, Groups of Somalian males and youths attacked people on the street with fireworks.

Virginia and Maryland officials are reluctant to stop protests at USSC justices homes, even after a request by the high court’s chief security officer, Marshal Gail Curley. States basically say its a federal problem and federal marshals should enforce it.

OBSERVATION - Legaleze going on here. But bottom line is these blue states what to keep the pressure on the justices as a form of punishment for the decision.

New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy (D) signed “Gun Safety Package 3.0” Tuesday, creating a database of all ammo sold in the state and putting six other new gun controls in place.
NJ.com notes that the legislation also bans .50 caliber rifles, requires “micro-stamping technology” on certain new firearms, and “[makes] it easier to sue gun manufacturers and dealers over gun crimes in the state.”

OBSERVATION - Expect more lawsuits to arise over these bans.
IN RELATED - Gun sales in the United States have passed the 1 million mark each month for nearly three straight years, a record being driven by people who seek to arm themselves for protection against criminals, according to new data. For the 35th straight month, FBI background checks for firearms hit over 1 million, a victory for groups that have been advocating easier access to firearms for adults who can pass the National Instant Criminal Background Check System.

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CANCEL CULTURE FRONT

A judge issued a temporary block to a university policy that censored three Christian students who had expressed opposition to same-sex marriage on religious grounds.
Students Peter Perlot, Mark Miller and Ryan Alexander sued the University of Idaho over a policy in which they were barred from talking with a student about their views on same-sex marriage.
The three belong to the University of Idaho chapter of the Christian Legal Society, which holds traditional views on the definition of marriage and sexual ethics.
In an order released last week, Chief U.S. District Judge David C. Nye issued a preliminary injunction against the enforcement of the university’s policies against the plaintiffs.
“Defendants’ orders targeted the viewpoint of Plaintiffs’ speech. Both students and professors expressed opposing viewpoints to the views expressed by Plaintiffs without any type of intervention, let alone punishment,” wrote Nye.
“The disparity in Defendants’ approach is what bothers the Court most about this case and leans towards a finding that Defendants’ actions were designed to repress specific speech.”

OBSERVATION - University attempted to abuse Title IX as justification for their actions. While Title IX may have had lofty goals of reducing repression - it has instead morphed into a tool of the left to increase repression.

U.S. Sens. Elizabeth Warren and Bob Menendez have introduced the “Stop Anti-Abortion Disinformation Act” to combat what they call “false advertising” from crisis pregnancy centers (CPCs).

OBSERVATION - Cue usual suspects
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Strategic Activity / Deployments

The Navy is canceling early separation programs and encouraging delayed separation as it aims to retain more sailors, especially in sea billets.
The Navy announced the cancellation of enlisted early out programs, as well as waivers for new time-in-grade requirement, in NAVADMIN 142/22, released on June 22.

OBSERVATION - The military branches are not filling enlistment quotas proportionally to the increased ‘wokeness’ of the military. On the other side of the pipeline - service men/women are seeking to get out as soon as possible.
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China -

See Japan regarding naval operations in Japanese waters.
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North/South Korea -

NUKE WATCH on going.

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Japan -

Chinese operations near the Senkaku Islands are becoming more frequent as overall Chinese and Russian forces have been more active in the Western Pacific, Japanese officials said on Tuesday.
Defense Minister Nobuo Kishi said Japanese forces will deal with any attempts by China to change the status quo of the Senkaku islands resolutely and calmly.
The Senkaku Islands, known as Diaoyu by China and Diaoyutai by Taiwan, are a chain of small, uninhabited islands located approximately 186 kilometer northeast of Taiwan and around 410 kilometers west of Okinawa Japan administers the islands though both China and Taiwan claim them.
Kishi said that at around 7:44 a.m. on Monday, a People’s Liberation Army Navy Jiangwei II frigate passed southwest of Uotsuri Island in the Senkaku Islands. This marked the fourth time Chinese ships have entered the contiguous zone of the Senkaku Islands with previous instances in 2016, 2018 and last month.
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Russia -
WAR WATCH - The Battle for Donbas is on - now in its the fourth month of the war.

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

********
See Israel regarding actions against the Jewish Agency.

Remarks by a senior security official close to Russian President Vladimir Putin have called into question the notion that the Kremlin has narrowed its war aims in Ukraine and would be content to stop once the eastern Donbass region is under its control. But Nikolai Patrushev, secretary of Putin’s Security Council, on Tuesday laid out as the goals of the invasion virtually the same objectives as Putin did when he launched his “special military operation” last February.
Speaking at a national security meeting in the Siberian city of Khabarovsk, Patrushev listed these as: protecting people at risk of genocide at the hands of the “neo-Nazi regime” in Kyiv, demilitarizing and “de-Nazifying” the territory of Ukraine, and ensuring that it commits to remaining neutral – this is, not joining NATO.
An assessment by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said Patrushev’s statement was “noteworthy because of its timing and his position as a close confidante of Putin.”
“Patrushev is very unlikely to stray far from Putin’s position in his public comments given his relationship with Putin and his role in the Kremlin,” ISW said.

After more than four months of ferocious fighting, Russia claimed a key victory: full control over one of the two provinces in Ukraine’s eastern industrial heartland.
But Moscow’s seizure of the last major stronghold of Ukrainian resistance in Luhansk province came at a steep price. The critical question now is whether Russia can muster enough strength for a new offensive to complete its capture of the Donbas and make gains elsewhere in Ukraine.
“Yes, the Russians have seized the Luhansk region, but at what price?” asked Oleh Zhdanov, a military analyst in Ukraine, noting that some Russian units involved in the battle lost up to a half their soldiers.

Logistics -
- Rough estimates of equipment losses since the start of the war consist of destroyed 217 fighter, attack, and transport jets, 187 attack and transport helicopters, 1,594 tanks, 806 artillery pieces, 3,772 armored personnel carriers, 247 Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS), 15 boats and cutters, 2,634 vehicles and fuel tanks, 105 anti-aircraft batteries, 660 tactical unmanned aerial systems, 65 special equipment platforms, such as bridging vehicles, and four mobile Iskander ballistic missile systems.

Russian Personnel Issues -
- Current assessment is that the Russian military continues to suffer serious casualties in Ukraine, amounting to an average of 200 troops killed and between 400 to 600 wounded every day. Upwards of 36,000 dead since the start of the war and wounded approximately three times that.

____________________________________

Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Hot and dry over the 10 day forecast period with chances of thunderstorms.

24 HOUR ROUND UP -
Ukraine forces are preparing for the fight now to spread into Donetsk Oblast. Donetsk Gov. Pavlo Kyrylenko said that getting the 350,000 people remaining in Donetsk province out is necessary to save lives and to enable the Ukrainian army to better defend towns from the Russian advance. “The destiny of the whole country will be decided by the Donetsk region,” Gov. Pavlo Kyrylenko told reporters in Kramatrosk, the province’s administrative center and home to the Ukrainian military’s regional headquarters. The governor’s call for residents to leave appeared to represent one of the biggest suggested evacuations of the war. According to the U.N. refugee agency, more than 7.1 million Ukrainians are estimated to be displaced within Ukraine, and more than 4.8 million refugees left the country since Russia’s invasion started on Feb. 24

Kyiv front -
Nothing significant to report.

Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts -
More Russian artillery fire scattered around the regions.

Eastern (Kharkiv) front -
Russian forces continued air, artillery, and rocket strikes on Ukrainian military infrastructure and settlements north, northeast, and east of Kharkiv.

Heavy Russian artillery and probing attacks on the southern margin of the Izyum salient.

Donetsk Oblast -
Fluid tactical situation. Russians continue to shell and bomb throughout the region. Russia continues to launch ground attacks through the sector, trying to maintain momentum of operations.

Eastern (Donbas Separatist Region) Front -
Intense artillery and air strikes by Russian / separatists along the portions of the LOC closest to the former Ukraine [pocket in the east. Local Russian probing attacks associated with the artillery. Large explosions reported in the Azotny district in Donetsk, likely associated with a Russian / Separatist ammo stockpile.

Crimea Front -
More heavy Russian artillery fire along the Kherson - Mykolaiv LOC. Both sides launched limited attacks with no meaningful changes in situation.

Western / Central Ukraine -
Ukrainian army shot down Russian missile over Shepetivka disctrict area of Khmelnytskiy region. Another three Russian missiles hit Khmelnytskiy disctrict area.

Russian Territory -
Nothing significant to report

Partisan Resistance -
The Ukrainian Resistance Center claimed that Ukrainian partisans discovered a network of pro-Russian collaborators in occupied Kherson Oblast on July 5.

OUTLOOK - Battles in eastern Ukraine continue to be vicious and fluid.

This assumes a Ukrainian withdrawal to Siversk allowing Ukrainian forces reduce the risk of immediate encirclement, but Ukrainian forces may continue a fighting withdrawal to a line near the E40 highway from Slovyansk to Bakhmut. Russian forces will likely continue efforts to move west of the T1302 Bakhmut-Lysychansk highway to eventually drive on Bakhmut and Siversk, although some analysts and observers question their ability to do so successfully following losses sustained during attempts to take Lysychansk is questionable.

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Europe / NATO General -
.
The Norwegian government has intervened to halt a strike by oil and gas workers. The move came amid concerns that the strike could have worsened Europe’s energy crisis, which is already aggravated by the war in Ukraine.
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Israel -

In crackdown against Russian Jews as Russia orders the Jewish Agency– the quasi-governmental body that facilitates immigration to Israel– to halt all operations in country. Israeli government “considering next steps”. The Jewish Agency denied media reports claiming it had been ordered to cease its work in Russia and said that it is still fully operational there.

OBSERVATION - This is viewed as retaliation of Israel’s limited support towards Ukraine. Israel has been increasing its efforts in recent months to accelerate the passage of Jews out of Russia as well as other parts of Europe as anti-semitism has been increasing.

Defense Minister Benny Gantz reveals satellite images he says show “unusual” Iranian maritime activity in the Red Sea in recent months. He says it is the “most significant” such activity in the past decade

OBSERVATION - This activity includes modified vessels that can launch small, high speed attack craft as well as drones. Positioning in the Red Sea allows Iran to project against the Suez Canal as well as Israeli pot of Aqaba.

Israeli Prime Minister: The current Iranian nuclear impasse will lead to an arms race in the Middle East and threaten world peace

OBSERVATION - There is already an arms race of sorts. But should Iran get the bomb, gulf states - especially Saudi Arabia will seek (buy) nuclear weapons or strategic air defense systems and first strike systems.
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Syria -

For a few, lucky Russian pilots, they got to target with several air strikes around the town of Benin in the southern countryside of Idlib.
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Black Swans -

Heavy rains continued falling over Australia’s east coast on July 5, 2022, forcing more than 50 000 people to evacuate their homes, up from 30 000 on July 4. While some parts of the region saw a year’s worth of rain within just 3 days, this heavy rainfall event is still not over.
Federal Treasurer Jim Chalmers warned the economic impact from the floods “will be substantial”.
Floods have likely inundated several food-producing regions and that would hit supplies and lift prices, further straining family budgets already reeling under soaring prices of vegetables and fruits, Chalmers said. “There’s no use tiptoeing around that … that inflation problem that we have in our economy will get worse before it gets better. It’s got a lot of sources, but this (flood) will be one of them,” Chalmers told Sky News.

OBSERVATION - Another hit on an important food producing region. This is a warning for the US and the rest of the world. Crops and farms are already stressed due to other climactic issues like droughts and lack of fertilizers etc. Keep this in mind fo the US.

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Globalism / Great Reset -

The monument to an apocalyptic globalist ideal for the world, the Georgia Guidestones, were damaged possibly resulting from an explosion of some type and later torn down. It was erected under very mysterious circumstances in March 1980 with words etched in four granite slabs calling for, among other things, the genocide of 90 percent of the world’s population. A population of just 500 million, compared to today’s 7.5 billion, is advocated as the proper “balance” with nature.

According to the Guidestones, the following ten principles are offered in eight different languages to ensure humankind’s “survival,” which ironically involves wiping out the vast majority of humans:

1. Maintain humanity under 500,000,000 in perpetual balance with nature.
2. Guide reproduction wisely — improving fitness and diversity.
3. Unite humanity with a living new language.
4. Rule Passion — Faith — Tradition — and all things with tempered reason.
5. Protect people and nations with fair laws and just courts.
6. Let all nations rule internally resolving external disputes in a world court.
7. Avoid petty laws and useless officials.
8. Balance personal rights with social duties.
9. Prize truth — beauty — love — seeking harmony with the infinite.
10. Be not a cancer on the earth — Leave room for nature — Leave room for nature.

OBSERVATION - Interesting timing, just as the GGR’s are trying to arrange the pieces on the board.

Dutch govt is getting rough in trying to shut down the farmers. Police in The Netherlands fired gunshots at Dutch farmers who were protesting the implementation of EU-based climate rules on the emissions of nitrogen that threaten the livelihoods of thousands. On Tuesday evening, police fired what they said were warning and “targeted” shots at a farmer’s protest in Heerenveen in the north of the country. The Friesland police claimed a “threatening situation” had ensued after protesters allegedly tried to drive through the line of police and law enforcement vehicles, necessitating the use of firearms.
The incident, footage of which was widely shared on social media, did not result in any injuries, though three protesters were arrested and one tractor was hit with a bullet, the local De Telegraaf newspaper reported. The use of force by the police was condemned by the Farmers’ protest group Agractie, which questioned if “people had to die first” before the government comes to the table to negotiate with the farmers, adding that the situation could have turned out much worse.

OBSERVATION - Following some of the measures used against Canadian truckers. Can it happen here - most definitely yes.
______________________________

Wuhan virus -

A board-certified obstetrics and gynecology physician verified the recent Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS) data showing the increased dangers posed by the Wuhan coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccines to women’s reproductive health.
Dr. James Thorp diligently analyzed the numbers and found that the vaccines have increased by 1,000-fold cases of menstrual irregularities, such as abnormal uterine bleeding.

OBSERVATION - Add this to the pile of data showing the jab was not only an abortifcant, but damaged women reproductive health in many ways.

The Government of Canada has confirmed that the vaccinated population account for 4 in every 5 Covid-19 deaths to have occurred across the country since the middle of February 2022, and 70% of those deaths have been among the triple vaccinated population. The Government of Canada produces a daily Covid-19 Epidemiology update, in which they sporadically provide new data on Covid-19 cases, hospitalizations and deaths.
Examination of the data shows Canada recorded 429,335 Covid-19 cases between 14th Feb and 29th May 2022, and 376,451 of those cases were among the vaccinated population. With 11,211 cases among the partly vaccinated, 138,086 cases among the double vaccinated, and 227,154 cases among the triple vaccinated.
This means the unvaccinated population accounted for 12% of Covid-19 cases between 14th Feb and 29th May, whilst the vaccinated population accounted for 88%, 60% of which were among the triple jabbed. Over these 15 weeks, there were 4,954 Covid-19 deaths across Canada and the vaccinated population accounted for 3,796 of them. With 135 deaths among the partly vaccinated, 1,174 deaths among the double vaccinated, and 2,487 deaths among the triple vaccinated.
The means the unvaccinated population accounted for just 23% of deaths, whilst the vaccinated population accounted for 77%, 70% of which were among the triple jabbed.

OBSERVATION - Numbers still lack a peer review, but continue to build on similar data trends seen around the world.
______________________________

Economy -

OVERALL OBSERVATION - Hyperinflation, stagflation, recession, depression, everything hunky dorky. Not being an economist I have to work hard on many of the indicators the ‘smart’ people look at and have to weigh their credibility from historical calls on the economy to judge their viability for future actions. If anything we’ve learned sense the end of the before times is that conditions can and will change very rapidly. My overall impression is that the US economy is hitting an inflection point - and the future view is very rocky. What form this will take is not clear - a view borne out by the divergent views of the ‘smart’ guys. Further, the ‘smart’ guys are tempering their outlooks, at least publicly, to lower the level of fear for the markets. Once again, the transjectory of economy to the bad IMHO is trending towards the fall of this year.

The small business network Alignable released new survey results that found that 35% of U.S. small business owners “could not pay their rent in full or on time in June.” “Most small business owners attribute this worsening situation to record-breaking inflation, which includes escalating gas, labor, and supply costs,” Alignable said. “Simply put, there’s less money available to pay the rent.”

OBSERVATION - A recession could see these businesses close their doors in large numbers - even worse than the wuhan shut downs.

According to Goldman, (a report titled “Revisiting Recession Facts”) the odds that the economy enters a recession in the next year at 30% in the US, 40% in the Euro area, and 45% in the UK. Economic overheating—high unit labor cost growth and high core inflation—and large cumulative increases in the policy rate often precede severe recessions. In contrast, elevated private sector financial surpluses often foreshadow less severe recessions.

OBSERVATION - their bottom line is that a severe recession is being forecast by thei indicators.

The Fed backed raising rates at their next meeting in July by either 50 or 75 basis points, according to minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee’s June 14-15 policy meeting released Wednesday in Washington. They viewed maintaining the central bank’s credibility to control inflation as crucial.

OBSERVATION - Last year when the Fed first started talking about raising rates, they were looking at 25 basis points at a time. That quickly jumped to 75 and they are still considering more in the 50 - 75 range. On ne hand this clearly shows that the Fed realizes inflation is out of control and more of a concern than crashing the economy.

Motiva Enterprises announced that it was forced to cut back production at its Port Arthur, Texas refinery, which is the largest refinery in the United States. A pump failure in one of the facility’s largest crude distillation units has cut that unit’s output by a third. Sources close to the company report the unit will remain at limited capacity until replacement parts can be sourced.

OBSERVATION - With tight supplies, even a minor shutdown can send severe price ripples through the market. Last news, average price per gallon for gas had dropped to the $4.80 range
______________________________

Biden / Harris watch -

Another word salad from Harris - “We got to take this stuff seriously, as seriously as you are because you have been forced to have take this seriously,”

OBSERVATION - Seriously?

___________________________

CW2/Domestic violence -

Support for the shooting death of Jayland Walker (Akron OH) is lower than organizers expected. Planned rallies are also showing far less participation than expected. (FO)

Pro Abortion rallies continue to dot the country, but participation is mainly from the same activists. Few Pro Abortion rallies garner more than a dozen participants. Scattered vandalism of pro-life facilities and associated organizations continue. (FO)

OVEALL OBSERVATION - The democrat brown shirts - BLM and Antifa - are suffering from lack of issues for the foot soldiers to get excited about. Part of BLMs problems could be a spill over from the financial corruption of their leadership that has been exposed over the past year. Antifa may be suffering from lack of enthusiasm from its non-hardcore college level base who is struggling themselves with the current bad economy after being promised unicorns if democrats took the white house.

___________________________________

POLITICAL FRONT -

Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) on Friday introduced a bill in the House to bar the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) from acquiring ammunition. The bill (pdf), known as the “Disarm the IRS Act,” stipulates that the IRS is “prohibited from acquiring ammunition” and “notwithstanding any other provision of law.” Reps. Marjorie Taylor Green (R-Ga.), Paul Gosar (R-Ariz.), and Jeff Duncan (R-S.C.) are co-sponsors of the measure, according to his office.

OBSERVATION - Nice thought, but won’t get anywhere under the current regime - or even after a red tsunami.
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Strategic Activity / Deployments

So far in 2022 monthly recruitment quotas are not being met by a large margin. It’s worse for the army, which is attracting less than half the recruits the Department of Defense analysts expected. The senior military leadership proposed offering record-high bonuses (up to $50,000) for eligible recruits. Polls indicate this will not have much impact on the current situation.

OBSERVATION - Expect calls for a restart of the draft or compelled service. The volunteer military produced the best fighting force because the individuals were motivated and well educated. Both were in abundance so recruiters could pick the best. Now these individuals - predominately from red regions, aere realizing that the current regime consider them to be domestic terrorist suspects and the military seems more concerned about being ‘woke’ than winning wars.
_________________________________

China -

Severe flooding reported in the southern half of the country.

Another potential round of wuhan lockdowns may be fast approaching as well.
____________________________________

North/South Korea -

NUKE WATCH on going.

__________________________________

Russia -
WAR WATCH - The Battle for Donbas is on - now in its the fourth month of the war.

ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.

********
Russia has staged nuclear drills with his road-launched intercontinental Yars missiles in a forest in western Siberia. The 7,500-mile range of the missiles ae capable of striking Britain or anywhere in Europe.
The test come just hours after Russia’s former president and current head of the Security Council, Dmitry Medvedev, issued the Kremlin’s nuclear threat, warning of of the end of the ‘existence of mankind’ if Moscow is punished for war crimes.

Logistics -
- Russia’s legislature approved emergency powers for the Kremlin to bolster the economy. Under the new powers, Russia’s government will temporarily reactivate “mobilization capacities and facilities,” access its strategic reserves, loosen labor laws to expand working hours “at night, on weekends and non-working holidays,” and use single suppliers for state defense orders.

- Russian forces began accumulating military equipment at the 1st Guards Tank Army training ground in Mulino, Nizhny Novgorod Oblast, likely to support the formation of a new military unit.

Russian Personnel Issues -
- Numerous reports that Russia has been scrounging around its military districts to pull together forces to create ad hoc BTGs for the Ukanian war. Further reporters that these groups are poorly trained and have old equipment.

Economic Impact -
- Russia has made over $24 billion from selling energy to China and India in the first three months following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

- Sri Lanka’s President, Gotabaya Rajapaksa, announced yesterday that he and Russian President Vladimir Putin had a productive discussion on how Sri Lanka and Russia could work together for mutual benefit of their respective nations.
OBSERVATION - Sri Lanka is in the midst of an economic melt down and is looking for someone to toss them a rope. Russia is in the mood for bargains.

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Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Hot and dry over the 10 day forecast period with chances of thunderstorms.

24 HOUR ROUND UP -

There were no claimed or assessed Russian territorial gains in Ukraine on July 6 for the first time in 133 days of war. This may indicate that Russia has instituted a limited pause in its operations to refit and reposition forces for attacks further west into Donbas. Russian artillery and air strikes continue, largely in an effort to disrupt Ukrainian forces efforts to establish the next lines of defense. Russian ground assaults appear to be small scale and limited, perhaps as an attempt to keep Ukrainian forces from being diverted to the main fight in eastern Ukraine.

Ukraine sent a small force to re-occupy Snake Island and claim its recapture.

Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign affairs has summoned Ambassador of Türkiye to protest release of the vessel with stolen Ukrainian grain.

Kyiv front -
Nothing significant to report.

Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts -
More Russian artillery fire scattered around the regions.

Eastern (Kharkiv) front -
Russian forces continued air, artillery, and rocket strikes on Ukrainian military infrastructure and settlements north, northeast, and east of Kharkiv.

Heavy Russian artillery and probing attacks on the southern margin of the Izyum salient. Russia appears to continue to show interest in attacking southeast of Izyum and west of Lyman toward Slovyansk.

Donetsk Oblast -
Fluid tactical situation. Russians continue to shell and bomb throughout the region. Russia continued offensive operations toward Siversk from west of Lysychansk and the Luhansk Oblast border.

Patterns of intense artillery fire suggest that Russian forces are preparing to expand its efforts to capture Bakhmut.

Eastern (Donbas Separatist Region) Front -
Fire reported at oil depot in Donetsk, fronm a probable Ukrainian artillery strike..

Russian forces in the Donetsk City area continued to fire on Ukrainian positions along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line of contact, but no ground assaults were attempted.

Crimea Front -
Russian artillery struck areas northwest of Kherson attempting to preemptively strike Ukrainian forces staging for a suspected attack towards the airport on the city’s north west quadrant.

Ukrainian forces returned to Snake Island, finding 30 vehicles are claimed to be left behind by Russia. Russian aviation launched 2 missiles at Snake island, not sure if at the same time Ukraine was raising the Ukranian flag over the island again.

Western / Central Ukraine -
Nothing significant to report

Russian Territory -
Nothing significant to report

Partisan Resistance -
Bridge between Novobohdanivka-Troitske was destroyed in Russian occupied Zaporizhzhia region.

At the entrance to the occupied Kherson, Ukrainian partisans posted a bloodied uniform of a Russian soldier with the letters Z and V.

Russian outlet Baza reported that three unknown assailants conducted an attack on the 488th Motorized Rifle Regiment in Klintsy, Bryansk Oblast, likely in protest of Russian covert mobilization practices.

OUTLOOK - Battles in eastern Ukraine continue to be vicious and fluid.

BLUF - Some view current Russian operations as resembling an operational pause. I think this may be the case with units that were directly involved in the primary eastern Ukraine effort, but there are units to the north and south that may be combat ready enough to maintain pressure while

With the apparent fall of Luhansk Oblast to Russia, Russia’s next moves(s) come into question. Some think Russia will temporally pause to consolidate control of the recently captured territory before pressing the attack westward towards Ukrainian positions in Siversk before turning to Slovyansk and Bakhmut.
Other analysts are observing Russian build up in the Izyum salient to attack Slovyansk. From the north.

More symbolic than tactical, return of Ukranian forces to Snake Island is bound to be a morale booster. I characterized it as an Alamo event early on. I don’t expect it to become a significant garrison in the near future.

___________________________________

Europe / NATO General -
.
Boris Johnson on Thursday announced his resignation as head of the U.K. Conservative Party, but promised to stay on as prime minister until a new party leader is chosen. A historic number of government resignations, triggered by a series of scandals, had made Johnson’s position untenable.

Finland has seized nearly a thousand Russian freight cars as a result of EU sanctions. After the EU sanctioned Russian coal in April, Finland’s state-owned rail operator VR moved to reduce railway traffic from Russia. According to a June 6 letter from Russian Railways to the Ministry of Transport, 865 Russian freight cars have been seized by Finnish bailiffs.

____________________________________

Pakistan -

Pakistan is experiencing soaring food and fuel prices as its foreign exchange reserves, used to pay for imports, are shrinking at an alarming pace. If the situation continues unabated, Pakistan will face bankruptcy before the year is out, following in the footsteps of its regional neighbor Sri Lanka. Currently, Pakistan has enough foreign currency reserves to pay for five weeks of imports. The current situation has been made worse by political crisis that resulted in the ousting of Prime Minister Imran Khan earlier this year over allegations of corruption and financial malfeasance.

OBSERVATION - Growing concern that civil unrest may bridge into civil war of sorts, not a good thing for a half cocked nuclear power to have happen.
___________________________________

Israel -

Israel and Turkey sign today a bilateral aviation agreement, the first since 1951. The agreement will allow Israeli planes to land at several Turkish airports.
____________________________________

Iran -

British Navy seized a shipment of advanced Iranian missiles destined for Yemen.

Iran claims to have arrested the British Deputy Ambassador and a number of other foreign nationals on charges of espionage, Iranian media reported Wednesday. Deputy Ambassador Giles Whitaker, who heads the British diplomatic mission in Iran, was taken into custody by Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps.
Britain disputes the claim saying he was forced to leave the area. The Iranian government released footage it claimed showed Whitaker near the site of Iranian missile tests. He is also accused of taking soil samples.

Biden administration has announced a fresh round of Iran-related sanctions amid continuing diplomatic efforts to revive the 2015 nuclear deal with Tehran.
The new measures, revealed on Wednesday, target “an international network of individuals and entities” that the Department of the Treasury said facilitated the sale of US-sanctioned Iranian petroleum and petrochemical products to East Asia.

OBSERVATIONS - Iran has gotten pretty successful in working around present sanctions, made easier by lax enforcement by biden. I don’t see these as being any more successful.
__________________________________

Turkey -

Turkey released a Russian ship that was suspected of carrying stolen Ukrainian grain on Wednesday evening, according to the Ukrainian foreign ministry.

Turkiye FM Cavushoglu met with Russian FM Lavrov at the G20.
______________________________________

Misc of Note -

A top UN official said on Wednesday that a record 345 million people were now acutely hungry . Where there is hunger - there arises high potential for societal instability and war.
OTOH, UN warns of fame all the time - ploy to increase money contributions to cover their fat bureaucracy .

The World Health Organization on Thursday reported a 77% weekly increase in the number of lab-confirmed monkeypox cases, to more than 6,000 worldwide, and two more deaths in parts of Africa where the virus has circulated for years.

OBSERVATION - Still 99+% confined to the gay community. Globalist mouth pieces like the WHO still trying to scare this into the next pandemic.
____________________________________

Black Swans -

The National Climate Prediction Center forecasts indicate a 52% chance of La Niña effects for 2023. The 3-year cycles of La Niña are rare and have only happened twice since 1950. La Nina’s effects have driven extreme heat and widespread megadrought conditions across much of the United States for the past two years, decimating crops and contributing to food and energy shortages. (FO)

OBSERVATION - Global climate issues seem to be a growing threat to food production.

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