Threat Matrix 2022

Threat Trending Code Color Key

BLACK - An area worth noting, but not immediately impacting on US safety
BLUE - Incidents increasing and needing further monitoring, low threat to the US
YELLOW - This is the moderate concern level. Definitely becoming a threat but in the longer term.
ORANGE - A definite threat in both short term and long term. Some active events occurring
RED - Active and ongoing. Examples of this would be 2020 rioting, etc.

_____________________________

Globalism / Great Reset - YELLOW trending upward *unchanged*
DISCUSSION - Assessing the impact of the Ukraine war to their plans.
________________________________

TRUCKER PROTESTS

Canadian Truck protest bullets. Recommend FR threads for up to date info -
- Ontario Ministry of Transportation shut down 39 trucking businesses following the Freedom Convoy protests.
Truck News and The Post Millennial reported that they are 12 suspension and seizure orders on Ontario large truck businesses and 27 outside the province. None will be allowed to operate in Ontario.
“In an effort to preserve future police investigations into the illegal occupation in Ottawa, the ministry will not release the names of affected businesses at this time,” a ministry spokesperson said

US convoy -
- Currently enroute to DC
- Information that Antifa infiltrating the convoy
_____________________________

Wuhan virus - YELLOW *last updated 12-10-21*
DISCUSSION -

The CDC has withheld substantial portions of data regarding the impact of COVID-19, causing anger among scientists and speculation that the agency is protecting its boosting case in specific demographics by not releasing the data. study published two weeks ago examined the effectiveness of boosters in adults under 65 years of age. A vaccination booster is considered least likely to benefit those aged 18-49, so the agency, led by Dr. Rochelle Walensky, However, that information was left out of the report.

Infections nationwide have dropped significantly, placing pressure on the wuhan establishment to lift restrictions and modify its guidance. One instance is that the CDC is to announce reduced mask requirements.
_____________________________

Economy - RED * Updated 02-25-22*
DISCUSSION -

Reverberations from the Ukraine war continue throughout all the world. Markets did rebound a little bit yesterday but are still fragile. The Fed is evaluating impacts as part of its preparations to raise interest rates to combat inflation.
______________________________

Invasion of Illegals - ORANGE trending upward *unchanged*
DISCUSSION - Illegals continue to push across the border with record numbers of intercepts

biden administration calling on border patrol to volunteer to go to Europe to assist in refugees from the Ukraine conflict.
______________________________

Biden watch - ORANGE trending upward *unchanged*
DISCUSSION - Mental facilities continue to degrade

biden’s post Ukraine invasion press conference was a dumpster fire in many ways. His mental/physical condition was observed to be poor. He then said no one believed sanctions would work, then said more sanctions would work.
Biden drew a clear distinction between Ukraine, which we will not defend militarily, and all NATO states. He said the “U.S. will defend every inch of NATO territory.”
___________________________

CW2/Domestic violence - YELLOW trending neutral to down *updated 01/21/22*
DISCUSSION - Generally quiet activity on the BLM/Antifa front. Rampant crime continues

Reports of Antifa mobilizing to infiltrate the Trucker convoys that are converging on DC.
_________________________________

POLITICAL FRONT - YELLOW and increasing *updated 01-28-22*
DISCUSSION -

Biden has chosen DC Circuit jurist Ketanji Brown Jackson to replace Stephen Breyer at the end of this term. She’s seen as a hard progressive, and her record will get significant scrutiny in the Senate Judiciary hearings. Expect more moderate vs progressive infighting.

_____________________________________

Strategic Activity / Deployments - ORANGE (UPDATED 01/21/2022) *status raised*

The United States is set to deploy 7,000 more troops to Europe, including an armored Brigade combat team with enablers. These will be deployed to Germany in order to reassure NATO allies and deter aggression from Russia. Stars and Stripes reporter Caitlin Doornbos says that they will be ‘prepared to support a range of requirements in the region’.
OBSERVATION - Currently the US has forces in Romania, Poland, Lithuania, Germany and Italy

_________________________________

Cyber Warfare - YELLOW

DHS issues more warnings about potential Russian cyber attacks in response to US/EU sanctions.
_________________________________

China - ORANGE trending neutral to upward

Chinese jets entered the Taiwan ADZ yesterday.

China has also lifted sanction on Russian wheat imports.
OBSERVATION - China will act as Russia’s “relief valve” against global sanctions as part of their current peace pact.

Should the U.S. decide to implement SWIFT sanctions, China is prepared to offer its Cross-Border International Payments System (CIPS) as an alternative to SWIFT. The CIPS alternative would prevent the U.S. and its allies from imposing restrictions on Russian international hard-currency transactions. CIPS uses China’s Yuan as its primary currency, which provides a lower 1% inflation rate in a currency that has gained 8% on the U.S. dollar since the COVID recession.
____________________________________

Russia - RED * updated 02=18-22*
DISCUSSION - INCREASED WARNING ONGOING -

WAR WATCH - This situation is rapidly developing and remains fluid.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Continued full scale operations so topple the government in Kyiv and control the entire country.

*********

Putin has offered to have ceasefire talks with Ukraine to be hosted in Belarus. This could be a sign of weakness on his part as the war hasn’t gone the way he thought it would.

Russia is coming under more and more accusations of war crimes, with documented strikes against hospitals and schools. Russian armor have been filmed running over fleeing civilian cars and shooting at civilians.

Russia has arrested over 1,700 anti-war protestors in Moscow and other cities throughout the country. Over 170 Russian journalists, including from Kremlin-run RT and TASS, have signed an open letter calling for an end to war with Ukraine.

The Decentralized international hacker group ‘anonymous’ has declared cyber war on Russia via Twitter, seemingly over Russia’s war declaration on Ukraine.

US and EU have imposed new sanctions on Russia, but have avoided the Russian energy sector - a trump card it holds over the west. It has been the main money source for Russia funding much of its military build up over the past decade. One senior administration official told Politico “no option is off the table,” but cautioned “starting out with energy could actually benefit Putin and pad his pockets. Given high oil and gas prices, cutting off Russian oil and gas will drive prices up to Putin’s benefit.

It appears ‘the whole Russian Navy in the Mediterranean Sea (that we know of) sailed to Syria this morning while the invasion of Ukraine was unfolding’ according to Defense analyst H.I. Sutton, writer for Naval News. Naval News says the Russian Navy, including ‘their major warships’ did provide support in the Ukraine invasion, then were all sailing in ‘close formation’ and ‘appeared’ to be sailing to Tartus. Russia currently has a Naval base in Tartus, so it is likely assumed that is where they are headed.
Naval News called the Russian formation ‘unusual’ and said that it was clearly visible with European Space Agency’s (ESA) satellite imagery. An image of the formation was taken by the Sentinel 2 satellite at 08:40 UTC today according to the news agency
OBSERVATION - Russia’s navy has played only a minor role in the Ukraine invasion.
____________________________________

Ukraine - RED *updated 02-18-22* - The battle for Kyiv has begun

OVERALL OBSERVATION - Ukraine has seriously bloodied Russia’s nose, even though it has been hard hit as well. Videos of Russian convoys decimated and the very limited penetration into the country by Russia suggest Putin underestimated the will of Ukrainians. Putin’s call for talks this early, dressed up as trying to prevent more Ukraine damage, to me seems to be trying to cover his rear end.
Russia still has a lot more resources available, but now the logistics tail will start to bit them - trying to readjust forces and getting lead on target. Some are saying Kyiv will fall within days. I say those people don’t realize the basics of urban defense - those Russian forces now on the outskirts of the town are insufficient to do the job. They are walking into a buzzsaw. BBC produced map at this link depicts the relative situation -
https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/976/cpsprodpb/181DD/production/_123418789_kyiv_close_up_map_no_title_640-2x_v4-nc.png

Russian forces coming out of Belarus have been following on two columns, one on each side of the Dnepir River. Yesterday saw major battles where Russian forces saw heavy losses but pushed Ukraine forces back. Part of this two pronged assault included a large battle at the Chernobyl nuclear facility. This morning, lead elements of the western column have reached the outskirts of Kyiv.
In response, Ukraine has armed around 17,000 civilians to join the defense of the city and is encouraging others to prepare Molotov cocktails as welcome gifts.

To the east, the Russian drive to try to break through at Karkiv continue to be stopped by Ukraine resistance. There was some progress on the front on the northern end where elements are seeing some success at Konotop.

Separatists in the Dombass region attempted to launch a supporting assault, but has been unable to push past the LOC and when they did, Ukraine forces pushed them back.

The Crimea front, Russian forces had initial successes and reached the Dnepir River, but Ukraine defensive actions at Dnepir crossings on the western portions of the salient and at Melitopol on the east constrained the breakout. Russia reportedly threw more forces into the fight but appears to have significant losses.

Yesterday, Russia attempted a helicopter assault to capture an airport about 17 miles northwest of Kyiv. After a fierce battle the air assault forces were defeated, in part due to the resiliency of Ukraine air defense stopping reinforcements.

Ukraine’s Alamo moment. Russia captured Ukrainian island Zmiinyi (Snake Island), destroying the infrastructure. All 13 border guards were killed, refusing to surrender. A Russian naval vessel order them to surrender, the island’s defenders told them to go *f* themselves. They will be awarded the title «Hero of Ukraine» postmortem, says Ukrainian President Zelenskyy.

Another Ukraine hero appeared yesterday. Apparently, there’s a Ukrainian Fulcrum pilot who’s already chalked up six air-to-air kills today against Russian forces. He’s being called “The Ghost of Kyiv.”

There are unconfirmed reports that Russian field hospitals are being overwhelmed with casualties.

Unconfirmed reports of Ukrainian ballistic missiles conducting successful strikes near Rostov on Don, Russia. Millerovo air base in Russia has also been reportedly been struck by a Ukrainian ballistic missile(s)

FUTURE EXPECTATION - Russia will throw more forces into the conflict to break the defense. Russia’s amphibious task force in the Black sea supported by airborne forces staged in Russia may be used to break the stalemate in the south. Such an assault would likely be focused on isolating Odessa and controlling Ukrainian ports. Expect a bloody battle in Kyiv.

____________________________________

Belarus - YELLOW *updated 121021*
DISCUSSION -

Providing support to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
________________________________________

Poland - YELLOW trending upward *updated 121021*

Poland’s PM orders the government to prepare a resolution aiming to close the Polish airspace for the Russian airlines
________________________________________

Europe / NATO General - ORANGE *updated 02-25-22*
DISCUSSION - Increasing potential that NATO will become involved in an Ukraine invasion as Poland, Romania and the Baltic Nations respond.

Moldovian officials confirmed that a Moldovian flagged cargo ship was attacked by Russian missiles yesterday south of Odessa. This is the second non-combatant ship attacked so far in the Black Sea.

Germany, Italy, Hungary, and Cyprus are blocking Russia’s disconnection from the international interbank system SWIFT as CNN reported.
“Removing Russia from SWIFT would make it almost impossible for financial institutions to send money in or out of the country. This would seriously impact Russian businesses with foreign customers and could do real damage to the country’s economy,” the message says.

OBSERVATION -Germany is under Russia’s thumb for energy resources and Hungary is Russia-friendly. SWIFT, combined with other sanctions would be the big stick. However another concern is the likelihood of significant Russian push back, some believe would be major cyber assault against the west. See China response to any SWIFT sanctions.

Financial Times is reporting that the European Union will freeze the personal assets of Putin & his foreign minister Lavrov.

Russian airline Aeroflot has been banned from the UK

____________________________________

Israel - ORANGE trending neutral to upward *unchanged*
DISCUSSION - Ongoing threat from Hezbollah and Iran continues.

Moscow took issue with Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights and Jerusalem just prior to its attack on Ukraine. This followed Isreali condemnation of the Ukrainian invasion.

“Russia doesn’t recognize Israel’s sovereignty over Golan Heights that are part of Syria,” its deputy ambassador, Dmitry Polyanskiy, told the UN Security Council, which held a debate on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict on Wednesday.
The monthly Security Council meeting took place as the General Assembly debated the Russian-Ukrainian crisis.
OBSERVATION - Russia and Israel have had a general agreement regarding Israel’s attacks on Hezbollah bases in Syria and an effort to avoid Russian bases. This statement suggests that the current Ukraine invasion may be stressing that arrangement.
____________________________________

IMHO this is some of the reasons Russia doing what they are doing in Ukraine.....dont forget, Remember Snowden is in Russia and hellary and bedin have been trying to go through Ukraine to get to Russia Maybe Putin has those 30,000 emails.....

**********Just headline over the years ******* watch dates this is over the years*************

Estimating the Flow of Illegal Drugs Through Ukrainehttps://www.ojp.gov › pdffiles1 › nijPDF
by M Layne · 2001 · Cited by 1 — As addiction, and especially trafficking, lead to increased in crime and violence, more and more public resources must be channeled into law enforcement.
7 pages

Up to three thousand Ukrainians jailed in Russia in human ...https://khpg.org › ...
Sep 17, 2019 — Between two and three thousand Ukrainians have ended up jailed in Russia since 2015 on drugs charges after being tricked by advertisements ...

Ukraine: At The Center Of The East-West Drug Trade - Radio ...https://www.rferl.org › ...
Jul 31, 2007 — One can be found in the vast stretches of unguarded borders between Ukraine and Russia, from which illegal drugs deriving from Central and ...

200271.pdf - New OJP Resourceshttps://www.ncjrs.gov › pdffiles1 › nijPDF
by MA Hadley · 2002 — Combating narcotics trafficking continues to be a national priority for law enforcement bodies, though insufficient funding seriously hinders Ukrainian efforts.
27 pages

US teacher arrested in Russia for ‘large-scale’ drug smugglinghttps://www.aljazeera.com › news › us-teacher-arrested-...
Jan 27, 2022 — Authorities say ‘carefully disguised’ marijuana and cannabis oil found in Marc Fogel’s luggage in a Moscow airport.

Involvement of Russian Organized Crime Syndicates, Criminal ...https://www.loc.gov › frd › pdf-files › RussianOr...PDF
by GE Curtis · 2002 · Cited by 54 — This report describes the current status of narcotics trafficking in four countries of. Central Asia (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan), ...
39 pages

Human trafficking scheme forced hundreds of Ukrainians into ...https://euromaidanpress.com › More
Oct 24, 2017 — Mothers of Ukrainians forced into drug trade in Russia hold placards during the court hearings in Kyiv on criminal suspects in the case.

2021 Trafficking in Persons Report: Ukraine - State Departmenthttps://www.state.gov › reports › ukraine
The Government of Ukraine does not fully meet the minimum standards for the ... for trafficking Ukrainians into a drug-trafficking ring in Russia, ...

Ukrainians detained in Russia: real drug dealers or victims of ...https://uacrisis.org › Uacrisis.org › Press release
Mar 7, 2017 — Human rights activists reported a case when Ukrainians were detained under unclear circumstances and accused of drug trafficking in the ...

Illicit Drug Trends in the Russian Federationhttps://www.unodc.org › regional › central-asiaPDF
more than 3,000 foreign nationals (mostly from Tajikistan, Ukraine and Azerbaijan) suspected of drug trafficking crimes in Russia. There is a risk that the ...
24 pages

REMINDER - My Ping list got corrupted overnight and having to rebuild from one from 2019. Pass the word to your friends to contact me to be reestablished on the Ping list.

Time constraints - I’m focusing specifically on Ukraine/Russia situation. Doesn’t mean nothing else is happening, but this is the biggest threat to the US at the moment.
________________________________

Russia -

WAR WATCH - The Battle for Kyiv continues - Kyiv still stands. This situation is rapidly developing and remains fluid.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Evidence mounting that Russia has waded into a buzz saw and Putin is becoming desperate .

********

Putin has found himself in a quagmire, seeking a way out.
- There are unconfirmed reports that Putin fired his chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed forces
- Putin requested additional troops from Chechnya and Kurdistan. Russia preparing to deploy about 12,000 chechens, while Kurdiastan said no. REMEMBER, THIS IS AFTER TWO DAYS OF COMBAT AND PUTIN DEPLOYED 75% OF HIS COMBAT GROUND FORCES FOR THIS WAR.
- Russian lawmaker: “the war should be stopped immediately. When I voted for recognition of DNR/LNR, I voted for peace, not for war. For Russia to become a shield, so that Donbass wouldn’t be bombed, not for Kyiv to be bombed.” civil protests continue across Russia.
- Reports that Putin requested peace talks
- Following Russian attacks on civilian cargo ships in the Black sea (including a Turkish ship), it appears Turkey is moving closer to closing the Bosporus to Russian ships
- Russian attacks on civilians is increasing the ire of the world against it.
- China didn’t back Russia in the UN security council vote and two state run banks suspending Russian transitions for commodities.
- Putin called on Ukraine forces to overthrow the Ukraine govt
- Increasing momentum to remove Russia from SWIFT
- Multiple reports that Russian military out of fuel, food and stuck on highways
- After two plus days of attacks, Russia is still struggling to capture any major Ukraine cities.

This has caused some analysts to express concerns over Putin’s mental state and what level of desperation he may express in future actions. Major concerns -
- Talks that Putin may use thermobaric bombs to break things open. /These are massive bombs like our MOAB, capable of huge explosions just short of tactical nuke level damage and death.
- Breaking reports of Russian forces being issued chemical masks - pending more confirmation - that Russia may be looking at blowing up Ukraine chemical facilities - essentially launching a chemical attack on Ukraine.
- Cluster Munitions Canister found in the Eastern Ukrainian city of Kharkiv, these sort of Explosives are Banned by Multiple International Conventions due to the harm they can accidentally cause to Civilian Populations.

Twitter is down in Moscow as well as other part of the country. Russian state television channels are hacked to play #Ukraine national anthem.

Russia has threatened Sweden and Finland with ‘military consequences’ if they join NATO.
____________________________________

Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Temperatures forecast thru March 4th show temperatures in the mid to upper 40’s to even 50’s with rain/snow.
This forecast indicates that soil conditions are shifting from frozen much softer. The moon in waning.

QUOTE OF THE CENTURY In response to US request to evacuate Kyiv, Ukraine’s Zelensky said he needed ‘ammunition, not a ride’

24 HOUR ROUND UP

Current map of depicting Russian advance into Ukraine produced by the BBC found here -
https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/976/cpsprodpb/4BB6/production/_123428391_ukraine_russian_control_areas_map_02_26_2x640-nc.png

The Ukrainian government claimed that Russia has “suffered” about 3,000 troop casualties and lost 516 kinds of various military vehicles, 80 tanks, 10 airplanes, and seven helicopters so far on Friday, possibly indicating that the Ukrainian people have had some success against the Russian invaders.
NOTE - There is a possibly of inflated numbers, however given the failure of the Russian offensive so far I suspect these numbers may be pretty close to what we can get at this stage. Wounded numbers are not included, a low ball estimate would be ten times the
death rate - placing it at 30,000 range. This would jibe with reports of Russian field hospitals being overwhelmed.

Russian troops attempted to press into Kyiv overnight (there) and after fierce fighting appear to have been repulsed. Reports generally indicate that these were light troops with little armor support. The Russian attack was also conducted without extensive artillery and air support. Best reports are that heavy armor/mechanized infantry units are still stuck at least 30 Km away from Kyiv, and will have to still fight against Ukraine resistance and blown up bridges to get there.

In an attempt to press into Kyiv, Russia launched a disastrous, forced airborne assault onto an airfield south west of Kyiv. At least two IL76 cargo planes with troops were confirmed fo have been shot down with a third possible. The paratroops landed on a airfield that was damaged too much for aircraft to land follow on forces - effectively cutting them off and they faced a very aggressive response by Ukraine military and civil defense elements,

Russian attack in the east is still bogged down due to Ukraine resistance, but making very slow progress.

In the south reports of amphibious landings combined with a renewed push out of Crimea seems to have been the most successful action of conflict so far. However, the attack seems to be laterally following the coast and not so much towards Kyiv (which is a long ways away). Four Russian navy amphibious ships were used to drop off thousands of Russian infantry near Mariupol yesterday according to a senior defense official.
Russian forces are rumored to have launched a massive armored spearhead: bypassing coastal cities like Berdiansk in attempt to surround Mariupol and complete land bridge with occupied Crimea.

Russian naval attacks have basically neutralized the Ukraine naval capability. At least four non affiliated cargo ships were attacked by Russian forces - including a Turkish vessel.

In spite of a nearly 100 to 1 air superiority factor, the Russian air force has been tactically ineffective while Ukraine’s small air force continues to put up a strong fight. Ukraine’s anti-aircraft systems are proving reasonanly resilient despite relentless campaign to take them out. This is one of the more remarkable moments of this war. It’s early but I haven’t yet seen Russia’s undeniable air, technological superiority prevail

The Ukraine government has made a big show of letting the people know they are staying and fighting. Unprecedented! President Zelensky’s epic rebuke of US offer to evacuate resonates. Even the previous Ukraine president openly reported to his local defense unit to fight - even though he was very supportive of Russia during his administration. All evidence points to a highly motivated Ukraine military and civilian forces.

Ukrainian Parliament are calling for NATO to announce a military no-fly zone over Ukraine.

ASSESSMENT OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

Russia has a history of leveling cities rather than engaging in urban warfare - example being Afghanistan. Putin is sounding increasingly desperate to pull a victory out of the jaws of defeat. Such desperation may result in the utilization of thermobaric bombs to break Ukrainian resistance (Russian “flamethrower” MLRS units that launch thermobaric weapons are noted entering the theater) and will to fight in addition to more.
Yet to be seen in daylight today is the effective application of Russian air power, which may shift to more indiscriminate bombing.

I expect to see more Russian gains in south lead by better trained airborne and marine units. However, I don’t see a breakout that could support the attack on Kyiv. The southern effort seems focused on establishing a “land bridge” between Crimea and separatist occupied Dombass, with a secondary goal of putting pressure on Odessa and Ukrainian port facilities

Russia has taken severe casualties and losses of its best trained forces - airborne / air assault units. Now has to rely on conscript based regular units to carry a fight they may not be thrilled about carrying out. Versus a motivated resistance the edge goes to Ukraine. As the extent of these casualties reach Russia, increased domestic resistance to the war is to be expected.

Growing evidence that the logistics tail necessary to get Russian forces to the battle are failing. Ukraine is calling resistance forces to attack the follow on fuel convoys. This will be a huge battle that may not get much news. Russian military may have to devote increasingly scarce combat power to protect these convoys.

Russia has to do something dramatic to break the situation open for it. I expect Russia to use thermobaric weapons to sway the situation. But if they indiscriminately kill civilians it will provoke backlash from Nato and the rest of the world. A Russian genratated ‘chemical’ attack caused by deliberate destruction of Ukraine chemical facilities may well generate a very strong international response. Putin may get his win, but it will be a pyrrhic victory and by winning, he could lose.

I think that in the face of increasing Russian atrocities and attacks on non Ukrainian assets, the west will invoke removal of Russia from SWIFT. That could cause an escalation of a cyberwar with he west. Some analysts think that such a cyber war against NATO countries may be grounds to invoke Article 5 of the NATO self defense pact.

I further see former Soviet nations of eastern Europe stepping up the delivery of arms and munitions to Ukraine, possibly generating a Russian military response.

___________________________________

Belarus -

Belarus still permitting Russia to launch missiles from its territory.
_______________________________________

Poland -

A large convoy of Polish trucks entered Ukraine overnight carrying arms and ammunition for Ukraine.

______________________________________

Europe / NATO General -

The North Atlantic Treaty Agreement (NATO) has now activates parts of its multinational response force. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg stated “We are deploying elements of the NATO Response Force. On land, at sea, and in the air. We will do what it takes to protect and defend every Ally, and every inch of NATO territory”. This is a 40,000 troop force.

Countries that have announced they’re blocking Russian registered planes & airlines from using its airspace:
- United Kingdom
- Estonia
- Poland
- Bulgaria
- Czech Republic
- Latvia
- Lithuania

The UK has offered to conduct “logistics operations” to support the delivery to the Ukrainian armed forces of much-needed military aid, such as ammunition and anti-tank weapons, that is donated by other countries, a Defence HQ source says.

The French navy has intercepted a Russian cargo ship in the English Channel that was bound for Saint Petersburg. French officials said that the ship was intercepted in line with new European Union sanctions

France & Italy now support ejecting Russia from SWIFT banking network. UK, Canada, Netherlands now publicly advocating for it,
Germany last big hold-out. This punishment, considered the “nuclear” financial option, seemed to have zero chance just days ago.

____________________________________

Turkey -

Looking to confirm, Turkey apparently is moving closer to banning the passage of Russian warships to the Black Sea and are in the process of sending significant military and humanitarian support to Ukraine.
______________________________________

REMINDER - My Ping list got corrupted overnight and having to rebuild from one from 2019. Pass the word to your friends to contact me to be reestablished on the Ping list.

________________________________

TRUCKER PROTESTS

Canadian Truck protest. Recommend FR threads for up to date info -
- Trucker lawsuits moving forward

US convoy -
- American convoy now is approximately approximately 15 miles long. Still looking at a March 4th arrival in DC.
_____________________________

Economy -

The Fed is set to raise interest rates when it meets on March 15-16. Officials have been debating whether the initial “liftoff” should be a standard quarter point increase, or a larger half point hike to demonstrate the Fed’s seriousness in controlling prices.
On Thursday, Fed Governor Christopher Waller flagged Friday’s PCE inflation report as one to watch, saying if it shows “the economy is still running exceedingly hot, a strong case can be made for a 50-basis-point hike in March.”
______________________________

Biden watch -

In the midst of the Ukraine / Russia conflict, biden goes back to Delaware again for the weekend. What will be his response to Russia raising its nuclear force readiness to its highest level.
___________________________

Strategic Activity / Deployments -

Pending information on any changes to US DEFCON based on Russia placing its forces at its highest level of alert.

_________________________________

Cyber Warfare -

See Anonymous attack on Russia govt.

Warnings of Russia cyber attacks against US financial targets in response to SWIFT sanctions.
_________________________________

China -

China has reportedly announced ‘military exercises’ in the South China Sea across a six nautical mile radius from Sunday to Tuesday.

Yesterday a US destroyer transited the Taiwan Straits, bringing condemnation from China.

China is prepared to offer its Cross-Border International Payments System (CIPS) to Russia as an alternative to SWIFT. The CIPS alternative would prevent the U.S. and its allies from imposing restrictions on Russian international hard-currency transactions. CIPS uses China’s Yuan as its primary currency, which provides a lower 1% inflation rate in a currency that has gained 8% on the U.S. dollar since the COVID recession.

____________________________________

North Korea -

NK launched a ballastic missile yesterday into the Sea of Japan. Japanese Defense Minister Nobuo Kishi said Sunday’s missile may have flown as high as 600 kilometers (400 miles), to a range of 300 kilometers (200 miles).

__________________________________

Russia -

WAR WATCH - The Battle for Kyiv continues - Kyiv still stands. This situation is rapidly developing and remains fluid.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Evidence mounting that Russia has waded into a buzz saw and Putin is becoming desperate .

************************************** ALERT *********************************

President Vladimir Putin has ordered Russian nuclear deterrent forces on alert amid tensions with the West over his invasion of Ukraine.
Speaking at a meeting with his top officials, Putin asserted on Sunday that leading NATO powers had made “aggressive statements” along with the West imposing hard-hitting financial sanctions against Russia, including the president himself.
Putin ordered the Russian defense minister and the chief of the military’s General Staff to put the nuclear deterrent forces in a “special regime of combat duty.” ***** This is the highest form of combat readiness of these troops. *****

Following the conclusion of this meeting and announcement a huge motorcade was observed leaving the Kremlin at “speed”.

OBSERVATION - This is a serous development and threat. If Putin is as desperate as reports indicate, he could lash out in desperation against the US. Russian strategic deterrence forces includes conventional weapons. No response or info on changes to US or NATO status.
Russian nuclear alert weakens their operational freedom. Now air, sea and tactical missile operations must be planned and executed in a way that NATO does not misinterpret those as nuclear launch.

THIS DOESN’T MEAN THAT A NUCLEAR ATTACK IS IMMINENT SO LETS KEEP OUR HEADS FOR A MOMENT.

************************************** ALERT *********************************

RUMINT . . . . .RUMINT - Russian General Staff has ordered troops to take Kyiv by Monday, no matter the costs of human life.
Monitoring, however, this would reflect the increasing desperation of the Russian leadership a the lack of progress and high casualties that have been sustained. However, judging from the high moral and motivation of the Ukraine nation, command and control would shift to a resistance model that would still keep Russian forces in the meat grinder. Putin may win Kyiv, but lose the war.

With the severance from SWIFT, credit cards issued by Russian banks no longer working and ruble is worthless. Bank runs are developing in Russia

Russia’s war is costing about 20 Billion (US) per day, and some estimate that Putin will have eaten up his reserve funds (remember he had to spend billions just moving forces into the region) after 10 days of fighting. With the imposition of SWIFT and other sanctions, that reserve will be consumed at even a higher rate.
Another reported shortfall for Russia are tactical missiles. It is estimated that they only had less than 300 at the start of combat and have used most of them up. Russian production is hampered by supply shortages to replace them in any meaningful time frame.

Numerous computer chip producers have now stopped all shipments of chips to Russia.

(Reuters) - Russia’s space agency Roskosmos is suspending cooperation with Europe on space launches from the Kourou spaceport in French Guiana in response to Western sanctions over Ukraine, Roskosmos head Dmitry Rogozin said on Saturday

Protests continue throughout Russia in spite of thousands being arrested.

The infamous hacking group Anonymous continues it’s all-out digital war against Russia.
____________________________________

Ukraine -

QUOTE OF THE CENTURY In response to US request to evacuate Kyiv, Ukraine’s Zelensky said he needed ‘ammunition, not a ride’

24 HOUR ROUND UP

Ukrainian forces fought Russian troops again on the Kyiv outskirts, but the intensity was far lower than the previous night. Russian troops though to be remnants from previous night. Russian forces attacking Kyiv had to pause its operations for logistical reasons.

There appears to be a shift in Russian targeting towards critical civilian infrastructure, greater use of MLRS, and artillery in suburban areas. Numerous petroleum facilities and natural gas facilities hit and destroyed. This shift also bodes ill for increasing civilian causalities .

Approximately 4,300 Russian troops were killed so far, says Ukrainian Defense Ministry. The ministry also said 706 Russian APCs, 146 tanks, 27 planes, and 26 helicopters had been destroyed between Feb. 24-26.
NOTE - These are numbers provided by Ukraine and may be exaggerated. However from observing Russian responses such has seeking reinforcements from allied nations they may not be too far off. Rough estimate of wounded would be in the neighborhood of 43,000.

Reinforcements from staging areas in Russia are bearing a “V” in stead of a “Z” invasion marking. A large number of them are showing up in Belarus areas near the border. There are rumors that Russia will attempt another invasion into Ukraine further to the west of initial attacks.

Russia launched a titanic artillery/MLRS barrage followed by a ground assault against Kharkiv (Ukraine 2d largest city) that was forcesd back by defenders. Reportedly (propaganda alert) some of the Russian soldiers were Spetsnaz who abandoned their vehicles and retreated. Cant confirm the Spetsnaz aspect but Ukraine sourced videos show a lot of abandoned, operable vehicles captured.

Russian armored forces in the north eastern front (Konotep to Sumy) are taking a gamble by bypassing cities and out running their POL support which is largely road bound. Ukrainians already taking advantage of similar elsewhere slowing and stopping in some instances Russian progress. These logistical convoys are essentially unguarded, unarmored wheeled vehicles very prone to attacks.

Yesterday there was a lot of talk about Chechen units fighting for Russian and reports that Ukraine had neutralized a number of them. One such report Ukraine said they have “neutralized” the Chechen general, Magomed Tushayev. Apparently, he could have been killed near Kiev, in the area known as Hostome. Tushayev He was in charge of the 141 motorized regiment of the so-called Kadyrov guard: one of the most elite units in Chechnya and whose contingent would be made up of about 400 men.
NOTE - The leading Chechen warlord is a strong supporter of Putin, but Ukraine isn’t Chechnya.

Current map of depicting Russian advance into Ukraine produced by wikipedia found here -
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/c/c3/Russo-Ukraine_Conflict_%282014-present%29.svg/2560px-Russo-Ukraine_Conflict_%282014-present%29.svg.png

The Ukrainian government has set up a hotline for families of Russian soldiers to call in and enquire about their status. Additionally, according to the Ukrainian MOD, captured prisoners have the opportunity to call home

Increasing documentation of Russian cluster munitions being fired into civilian areas of Ukraine, including residential areas, schools and hospitals.

OUTLOOK -

There seems to be movement towards a resolution. After rejection Russian talk locations, Zelensky says he agreed with Lukashenko to meet for peace talks with Russian delegates at the border near Pripyat River. Lukashenko has given his word to ground all Russian armed forces in Belarus during the Ukrainian negotiators’ travel, talks, & return. No word on Russia acceptance.

Russia is increasingly desperate to bring this conflict to a conclusion by capturing Kyiv and stopping the substantial losses. The focus will be Kyiv. Armored columns pushing from the east (Konotep and Sumy) will continue a risky assault by bypassing cities/choke points, a tactic that dangerously exposes its logistics tail, will try to reinforce the Russian forces attempting to take Kyiv.

Expect more sluggish advances by Russian forces in the south, trying to pressure Odessa and in some measure trying to punch northward to join the Kyiv seige.

Countering this will be the aggressive and successful use of man portable anti tank munitions and MANPADS ADA weapons. OSINT and military analysts continue to be amazed at the resilience and determination of the Ukraine defense and there is no evidence that there is any loss of will to resist.

Russian focus on the eastern half of Ukraine will allow resupply from European countries to enter from the west relatively unopposed. I wonder when Ukrainian forces in the west will be mobilized to move eastward to relieve the siege of Kyiv. Such a move would face Russian air power, but the relief forces would be armed to the teeth with MANPADS and could move at night (hampering Russian air attacks). Russian tunnel vision to seize Kyiv may blind it to this effort.
___________________________________

Belarus -

Anti war protests have broken out in multiple places in Minsk and Zhodzina, Belarus.

French President Emmanuel Macron has asked his Belarus counterpart to demand that the country, Ukraine’s neighbor, quickly order Russian troops to leave. Macron denounced “the gravity of a decision that would authorize Russia to deploy nuclear arms on Belarus soil.”

Unconfirmed reports that a massive air assault is being planned involving dozens of planes and Belorussian special forces airborne soldiers. Landing sites are planned for around Kyiv and Zhytomyr. Ukraine ADA capabilities have caused similar Russian operations around Kyiv to become disasters.
OBSERVATION - In general Belarus soldiers are even more poorly trained than Russian conscripts. Two airborne / assault by Russia has been foiled. This may well face the same fate.
_______________________________________

Poland -

Pushing more arms and munitions into Ukraine.
______________________________________

Europe / NATO General -

Britain is asking G7 partners to impose a cap on gas and oil imports from Russia.

Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Sweden, and Iceland join growing list of countries to ban Russian planes from their airspace

In a significant shift, the German government said Saturday it will send weapons and other supplies directly to Ukraine and supports some restrictions of the SWIFT global banking system for Russia.
Germany’s chancellery announced it will send 1,000 anti-tank weapons and 500 “Stinger” surface-to-air missiles to Ukraine “as quickly as possible.”
____________________________________

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.