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REMINDER - My Ping list got corrupted overnight and having to rebuild from one from 2019. Pass the word to your friends to contact me to be reestablished on the Ping list.

Time constraints - I’m focusing specifically on Ukraine/Russia situation. Doesn’t mean nothing else is happening, but this is the biggest threat to the US at the moment.
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Russia -

WAR WATCH - The Battle for Kyiv continues - Kyiv still stands. This situation is rapidly developing and remains fluid.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Evidence mounting that Russia has waded into a buzz saw and Putin is becoming desperate .

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Putin has found himself in a quagmire, seeking a way out.
- There are unconfirmed reports that Putin fired his chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed forces
- Putin requested additional troops from Chechnya and Kurdistan. Russia preparing to deploy about 12,000 chechens, while Kurdiastan said no. REMEMBER, THIS IS AFTER TWO DAYS OF COMBAT AND PUTIN DEPLOYED 75% OF HIS COMBAT GROUND FORCES FOR THIS WAR.
- Russian lawmaker: “the war should be stopped immediately. When I voted for recognition of DNR/LNR, I voted for peace, not for war. For Russia to become a shield, so that Donbass wouldn’t be bombed, not for Kyiv to be bombed.” civil protests continue across Russia.
- Reports that Putin requested peace talks
- Following Russian attacks on civilian cargo ships in the Black sea (including a Turkish ship), it appears Turkey is moving closer to closing the Bosporus to Russian ships
- Russian attacks on civilians is increasing the ire of the world against it.
- China didn’t back Russia in the UN security council vote and two state run banks suspending Russian transitions for commodities.
- Putin called on Ukraine forces to overthrow the Ukraine govt
- Increasing momentum to remove Russia from SWIFT
- Multiple reports that Russian military out of fuel, food and stuck on highways
- After two plus days of attacks, Russia is still struggling to capture any major Ukraine cities.

This has caused some analysts to express concerns over Putin’s mental state and what level of desperation he may express in future actions. Major concerns -
- Talks that Putin may use thermobaric bombs to break things open. /These are massive bombs like our MOAB, capable of huge explosions just short of tactical nuke level damage and death.
- Breaking reports of Russian forces being issued chemical masks - pending more confirmation - that Russia may be looking at blowing up Ukraine chemical facilities - essentially launching a chemical attack on Ukraine.
- Cluster Munitions Canister found in the Eastern Ukrainian city of Kharkiv, these sort of Explosives are Banned by Multiple International Conventions due to the harm they can accidentally cause to Civilian Populations.

Twitter is down in Moscow as well as other part of the country. Russian state television channels are hacked to play #Ukraine national anthem.

Russia has threatened Sweden and Finland with ‘military consequences’ if they join NATO.
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Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Temperatures forecast thru March 4th show temperatures in the mid to upper 40’s to even 50’s with rain/snow.
This forecast indicates that soil conditions are shifting from frozen much softer. The moon in waning.

QUOTE OF THE CENTURY In response to US request to evacuate Kyiv, Ukraine’s Zelensky said he needed ‘ammunition, not a ride’

24 HOUR ROUND UP

Current map of depicting Russian advance into Ukraine produced by the BBC found here -
https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/976/cpsprodpb/4BB6/production/_123428391_ukraine_russian_control_areas_map_02_26_2x640-nc.png

The Ukrainian government claimed that Russia has “suffered” about 3,000 troop casualties and lost 516 kinds of various military vehicles, 80 tanks, 10 airplanes, and seven helicopters so far on Friday, possibly indicating that the Ukrainian people have had some success against the Russian invaders.
NOTE - There is a possibly of inflated numbers, however given the failure of the Russian offensive so far I suspect these numbers may be pretty close to what we can get at this stage. Wounded numbers are not included, a low ball estimate would be ten times the
death rate - placing it at 30,000 range. This would jibe with reports of Russian field hospitals being overwhelmed.

Russian troops attempted to press into Kyiv overnight (there) and after fierce fighting appear to have been repulsed. Reports generally indicate that these were light troops with little armor support. The Russian attack was also conducted without extensive artillery and air support. Best reports are that heavy armor/mechanized infantry units are still stuck at least 30 Km away from Kyiv, and will have to still fight against Ukraine resistance and blown up bridges to get there.

In an attempt to press into Kyiv, Russia launched a disastrous, forced airborne assault onto an airfield south west of Kyiv. At least two IL76 cargo planes with troops were confirmed fo have been shot down with a third possible. The paratroops landed on a airfield that was damaged too much for aircraft to land follow on forces - effectively cutting them off and they faced a very aggressive response by Ukraine military and civil defense elements,

Russian attack in the east is still bogged down due to Ukraine resistance, but making very slow progress.

In the south reports of amphibious landings combined with a renewed push out of Crimea seems to have been the most successful action of conflict so far. However, the attack seems to be laterally following the coast and not so much towards Kyiv (which is a long ways away). Four Russian navy amphibious ships were used to drop off thousands of Russian infantry near Mariupol yesterday according to a senior defense official.
Russian forces are rumored to have launched a massive armored spearhead: bypassing coastal cities like Berdiansk in attempt to surround Mariupol and complete land bridge with occupied Crimea.

Russian naval attacks have basically neutralized the Ukraine naval capability. At least four non affiliated cargo ships were attacked by Russian forces - including a Turkish vessel.

In spite of a nearly 100 to 1 air superiority factor, the Russian air force has been tactically ineffective while Ukraine’s small air force continues to put up a strong fight. Ukraine’s anti-aircraft systems are proving reasonanly resilient despite relentless campaign to take them out. This is one of the more remarkable moments of this war. It’s early but I haven’t yet seen Russia’s undeniable air, technological superiority prevail

The Ukraine government has made a big show of letting the people know they are staying and fighting. Unprecedented! President Zelensky’s epic rebuke of US offer to evacuate resonates. Even the previous Ukraine president openly reported to his local defense unit to fight - even though he was very supportive of Russia during his administration. All evidence points to a highly motivated Ukraine military and civilian forces.

Ukrainian Parliament are calling for NATO to announce a military no-fly zone over Ukraine.

ASSESSMENT OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

Russia has a history of leveling cities rather than engaging in urban warfare - example being Afghanistan. Putin is sounding increasingly desperate to pull a victory out of the jaws of defeat. Such desperation may result in the utilization of thermobaric bombs to break Ukrainian resistance (Russian “flamethrower” MLRS units that launch thermobaric weapons are noted entering the theater) and will to fight in addition to more.
Yet to be seen in daylight today is the effective application of Russian air power, which may shift to more indiscriminate bombing.

I expect to see more Russian gains in south lead by better trained airborne and marine units. However, I don’t see a breakout that could support the attack on Kyiv. The southern effort seems focused on establishing a “land bridge” between Crimea and separatist occupied Dombass, with a secondary goal of putting pressure on Odessa and Ukrainian port facilities

Russia has taken severe casualties and losses of its best trained forces - airborne / air assault units. Now has to rely on conscript based regular units to carry a fight they may not be thrilled about carrying out. Versus a motivated resistance the edge goes to Ukraine. As the extent of these casualties reach Russia, increased domestic resistance to the war is to be expected.

Growing evidence that the logistics tail necessary to get Russian forces to the battle are failing. Ukraine is calling resistance forces to attack the follow on fuel convoys. This will be a huge battle that may not get much news. Russian military may have to devote increasingly scarce combat power to protect these convoys.

Russia has to do something dramatic to break the situation open for it. I expect Russia to use thermobaric weapons to sway the situation. But if they indiscriminately kill civilians it will provoke backlash from Nato and the rest of the world. A Russian genratated ‘chemical’ attack caused by deliberate destruction of Ukraine chemical facilities may well generate a very strong international response. Putin may get his win, but it will be a pyrrhic victory and by winning, he could lose.

I think that in the face of increasing Russian atrocities and attacks on non Ukrainian assets, the west will invoke removal of Russia from SWIFT. That could cause an escalation of a cyberwar with he west. Some analysts think that such a cyber war against NATO countries may be grounds to invoke Article 5 of the NATO self defense pact.

I further see former Soviet nations of eastern Europe stepping up the delivery of arms and munitions to Ukraine, possibly generating a Russian military response.

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Belarus -

Belarus still permitting Russia to launch missiles from its territory.
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Poland -

A large convoy of Polish trucks entered Ukraine overnight carrying arms and ammunition for Ukraine.

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Europe / NATO General -

The North Atlantic Treaty Agreement (NATO) has now activates parts of its multinational response force. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg stated “We are deploying elements of the NATO Response Force. On land, at sea, and in the air. We will do what it takes to protect and defend every Ally, and every inch of NATO territory”. This is a 40,000 troop force.

Countries that have announced they’re blocking Russian registered planes & airlines from using its airspace:
- United Kingdom
- Estonia
- Poland
- Bulgaria
- Czech Republic
- Latvia
- Lithuania

The UK has offered to conduct “logistics operations” to support the delivery to the Ukrainian armed forces of much-needed military aid, such as ammunition and anti-tank weapons, that is donated by other countries, a Defence HQ source says.

The French navy has intercepted a Russian cargo ship in the English Channel that was bound for Saint Petersburg. French officials said that the ship was intercepted in line with new European Union sanctions

France & Italy now support ejecting Russia from SWIFT banking network. UK, Canada, Netherlands now publicly advocating for it,
Germany last big hold-out. This punishment, considered the “nuclear” financial option, seemed to have zero chance just days ago.

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Turkey -

Looking to confirm, Turkey apparently is moving closer to banning the passage of Russian warships to the Black Sea and are in the process of sending significant military and humanitarian support to Ukraine.
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