Replies

Threat Trending Code Color Key

BLACK - An area worth noting, but not immediately impacting on US safety
BLUE - Incidents increasing and needing further monitoring, low threat to the US
YELLOW - This is the moderate concern level. Definitely becoming a threat but in the longer term.
ORANGE - A definite threat in both short term and long term. Some active events occurring
RED - Active and ongoing. Examples of this would be 2020 rioting, etc.

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Globalism / Great Reset - YELLOW trending upward *unchanged*
DISCUSSION - Assessing the impact of the Ukraine war to their plans.
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TRUCKER PROTESTS

Canadian Truck protest bullets. Recommend FR threads for up to date info -
- Ontario Ministry of Transportation shut down 39 trucking businesses following the Freedom Convoy protests.
Truck News and The Post Millennial reported that they are 12 suspension and seizure orders on Ontario large truck businesses and 27 outside the province. None will be allowed to operate in Ontario.
“In an effort to preserve future police investigations into the illegal occupation in Ottawa, the ministry will not release the names of affected businesses at this time,” a ministry spokesperson said

US convoy -
- Currently enroute to DC
- Information that Antifa infiltrating the convoy
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Wuhan virus - YELLOW *last updated 12-10-21*
DISCUSSION -

The CDC has withheld substantial portions of data regarding the impact of COVID-19, causing anger among scientists and speculation that the agency is protecting its boosting case in specific demographics by not releasing the data. study published two weeks ago examined the effectiveness of boosters in adults under 65 years of age. A vaccination booster is considered least likely to benefit those aged 18-49, so the agency, led by Dr. Rochelle Walensky, However, that information was left out of the report.

Infections nationwide have dropped significantly, placing pressure on the wuhan establishment to lift restrictions and modify its guidance. One instance is that the CDC is to announce reduced mask requirements.
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Economy - RED * Updated 02-25-22*
DISCUSSION -

Reverberations from the Ukraine war continue throughout all the world. Markets did rebound a little bit yesterday but are still fragile. The Fed is evaluating impacts as part of its preparations to raise interest rates to combat inflation.
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Invasion of Illegals - ORANGE trending upward *unchanged*
DISCUSSION - Illegals continue to push across the border with record numbers of intercepts

biden administration calling on border patrol to volunteer to go to Europe to assist in refugees from the Ukraine conflict.
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Biden watch - ORANGE trending upward *unchanged*
DISCUSSION - Mental facilities continue to degrade

biden’s post Ukraine invasion press conference was a dumpster fire in many ways. His mental/physical condition was observed to be poor. He then said no one believed sanctions would work, then said more sanctions would work.
Biden drew a clear distinction between Ukraine, which we will not defend militarily, and all NATO states. He said the “U.S. will defend every inch of NATO territory.”
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CW2/Domestic violence - YELLOW trending neutral to down *updated 01/21/22*
DISCUSSION - Generally quiet activity on the BLM/Antifa front. Rampant crime continues

Reports of Antifa mobilizing to infiltrate the Trucker convoys that are converging on DC.
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POLITICAL FRONT - YELLOW and increasing *updated 01-28-22*
DISCUSSION -

Biden has chosen DC Circuit jurist Ketanji Brown Jackson to replace Stephen Breyer at the end of this term. She’s seen as a hard progressive, and her record will get significant scrutiny in the Senate Judiciary hearings. Expect more moderate vs progressive infighting.

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Strategic Activity / Deployments - ORANGE (UPDATED 01/21/2022) *status raised*

The United States is set to deploy 7,000 more troops to Europe, including an armored Brigade combat team with enablers. These will be deployed to Germany in order to reassure NATO allies and deter aggression from Russia. Stars and Stripes reporter Caitlin Doornbos says that they will be ‘prepared to support a range of requirements in the region’.
OBSERVATION - Currently the US has forces in Romania, Poland, Lithuania, Germany and Italy

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Cyber Warfare - YELLOW

DHS issues more warnings about potential Russian cyber attacks in response to US/EU sanctions.
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China - ORANGE trending neutral to upward

Chinese jets entered the Taiwan ADZ yesterday.

China has also lifted sanction on Russian wheat imports.
OBSERVATION - China will act as Russia’s “relief valve” against global sanctions as part of their current peace pact.

Should the U.S. decide to implement SWIFT sanctions, China is prepared to offer its Cross-Border International Payments System (CIPS) as an alternative to SWIFT. The CIPS alternative would prevent the U.S. and its allies from imposing restrictions on Russian international hard-currency transactions. CIPS uses China’s Yuan as its primary currency, which provides a lower 1% inflation rate in a currency that has gained 8% on the U.S. dollar since the COVID recession.
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Russia - RED * updated 02=18-22*
DISCUSSION - INCREASED WARNING ONGOING -

WAR WATCH - This situation is rapidly developing and remains fluid.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Continued full scale operations so topple the government in Kyiv and control the entire country.

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Putin has offered to have ceasefire talks with Ukraine to be hosted in Belarus. This could be a sign of weakness on his part as the war hasn’t gone the way he thought it would.

Russia is coming under more and more accusations of war crimes, with documented strikes against hospitals and schools. Russian armor have been filmed running over fleeing civilian cars and shooting at civilians.

Russia has arrested over 1,700 anti-war protestors in Moscow and other cities throughout the country. Over 170 Russian journalists, including from Kremlin-run RT and TASS, have signed an open letter calling for an end to war with Ukraine.

The Decentralized international hacker group ‘anonymous’ has declared cyber war on Russia via Twitter, seemingly over Russia’s war declaration on Ukraine.

US and EU have imposed new sanctions on Russia, but have avoided the Russian energy sector - a trump card it holds over the west. It has been the main money source for Russia funding much of its military build up over the past decade. One senior administration official told Politico “no option is off the table,” but cautioned “starting out with energy could actually benefit Putin and pad his pockets. Given high oil and gas prices, cutting off Russian oil and gas will drive prices up to Putin’s benefit.

It appears ‘the whole Russian Navy in the Mediterranean Sea (that we know of) sailed to Syria this morning while the invasion of Ukraine was unfolding’ according to Defense analyst H.I. Sutton, writer for Naval News. Naval News says the Russian Navy, including ‘their major warships’ did provide support in the Ukraine invasion, then were all sailing in ‘close formation’ and ‘appeared’ to be sailing to Tartus. Russia currently has a Naval base in Tartus, so it is likely assumed that is where they are headed.
Naval News called the Russian formation ‘unusual’ and said that it was clearly visible with European Space Agency’s (ESA) satellite imagery. An image of the formation was taken by the Sentinel 2 satellite at 08:40 UTC today according to the news agency
OBSERVATION - Russia’s navy has played only a minor role in the Ukraine invasion.
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Ukraine - RED *updated 02-18-22* - The battle for Kyiv has begun

OVERALL OBSERVATION - Ukraine has seriously bloodied Russia’s nose, even though it has been hard hit as well. Videos of Russian convoys decimated and the very limited penetration into the country by Russia suggest Putin underestimated the will of Ukrainians. Putin’s call for talks this early, dressed up as trying to prevent more Ukraine damage, to me seems to be trying to cover his rear end.
Russia still has a lot more resources available, but now the logistics tail will start to bit them - trying to readjust forces and getting lead on target. Some are saying Kyiv will fall within days. I say those people don’t realize the basics of urban defense - those Russian forces now on the outskirts of the town are insufficient to do the job. They are walking into a buzzsaw. BBC produced map at this link depicts the relative situation -
https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/976/cpsprodpb/181DD/production/_123418789_kyiv_close_up_map_no_title_640-2x_v4-nc.png

Russian forces coming out of Belarus have been following on two columns, one on each side of the Dnepir River. Yesterday saw major battles where Russian forces saw heavy losses but pushed Ukraine forces back. Part of this two pronged assault included a large battle at the Chernobyl nuclear facility. This morning, lead elements of the western column have reached the outskirts of Kyiv.
In response, Ukraine has armed around 17,000 civilians to join the defense of the city and is encouraging others to prepare Molotov cocktails as welcome gifts.

To the east, the Russian drive to try to break through at Karkiv continue to be stopped by Ukraine resistance. There was some progress on the front on the northern end where elements are seeing some success at Konotop.

Separatists in the Dombass region attempted to launch a supporting assault, but has been unable to push past the LOC and when they did, Ukraine forces pushed them back.

The Crimea front, Russian forces had initial successes and reached the Dnepir River, but Ukraine defensive actions at Dnepir crossings on the western portions of the salient and at Melitopol on the east constrained the breakout. Russia reportedly threw more forces into the fight but appears to have significant losses.

Yesterday, Russia attempted a helicopter assault to capture an airport about 17 miles northwest of Kyiv. After a fierce battle the air assault forces were defeated, in part due to the resiliency of Ukraine air defense stopping reinforcements.

Ukraine’s Alamo moment. Russia captured Ukrainian island Zmiinyi (Snake Island), destroying the infrastructure. All 13 border guards were killed, refusing to surrender. A Russian naval vessel order them to surrender, the island’s defenders told them to go *f* themselves. They will be awarded the title «Hero of Ukraine» postmortem, says Ukrainian President Zelenskyy.

Another Ukraine hero appeared yesterday. Apparently, there’s a Ukrainian Fulcrum pilot who’s already chalked up six air-to-air kills today against Russian forces. He’s being called “The Ghost of Kyiv.”

There are unconfirmed reports that Russian field hospitals are being overwhelmed with casualties.

Unconfirmed reports of Ukrainian ballistic missiles conducting successful strikes near Rostov on Don, Russia. Millerovo air base in Russia has also been reportedly been struck by a Ukrainian ballistic missile(s)

FUTURE EXPECTATION - Russia will throw more forces into the conflict to break the defense. Russia’s amphibious task force in the Black sea supported by airborne forces staged in Russia may be used to break the stalemate in the south. Such an assault would likely be focused on isolating Odessa and controlling Ukrainian ports. Expect a bloody battle in Kyiv.

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Belarus - YELLOW *updated 121021*
DISCUSSION -

Providing support to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
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Poland - YELLOW trending upward *updated 121021*

Poland’s PM orders the government to prepare a resolution aiming to close the Polish airspace for the Russian airlines
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Europe / NATO General - ORANGE *updated 02-25-22*
DISCUSSION - Increasing potential that NATO will become involved in an Ukraine invasion as Poland, Romania and the Baltic Nations respond.

Moldovian officials confirmed that a Moldovian flagged cargo ship was attacked by Russian missiles yesterday south of Odessa. This is the second non-combatant ship attacked so far in the Black Sea.

Germany, Italy, Hungary, and Cyprus are blocking Russia’s disconnection from the international interbank system SWIFT as CNN reported.
“Removing Russia from SWIFT would make it almost impossible for financial institutions to send money in or out of the country. This would seriously impact Russian businesses with foreign customers and could do real damage to the country’s economy,” the message says.

OBSERVATION -Germany is under Russia’s thumb for energy resources and Hungary is Russia-friendly. SWIFT, combined with other sanctions would be the big stick. However another concern is the likelihood of significant Russian push back, some believe would be major cyber assault against the west. See China response to any SWIFT sanctions.

Financial Times is reporting that the European Union will freeze the personal assets of Putin & his foreign minister Lavrov.

Russian airline Aeroflot has been banned from the UK

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Israel - ORANGE trending neutral to upward *unchanged*
DISCUSSION - Ongoing threat from Hezbollah and Iran continues.

Moscow took issue with Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights and Jerusalem just prior to its attack on Ukraine. This followed Isreali condemnation of the Ukrainian invasion.

“Russia doesn’t recognize Israel’s sovereignty over Golan Heights that are part of Syria,” its deputy ambassador, Dmitry Polyanskiy, told the UN Security Council, which held a debate on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict on Wednesday.
The monthly Security Council meeting took place as the General Assembly debated the Russian-Ukrainian crisis.
OBSERVATION - Russia and Israel have had a general agreement regarding Israel’s attacks on Hezbollah bases in Syria and an effort to avoid Russian bases. This statement suggests that the current Ukraine invasion may be stressing that arrangement.
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