Posted on 06/14/2021 5:34:15 PM PDT by blam
Goldilocks will not be pleased. Texas power prices infamously exploded higher during the frigid temperatures of the February winter storm that crippled so much of the state; and this time, amid blisteringly hot temperatures, Texas power prices are exploding higher once again as The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) asks Texans to reduce electric use as much as possible today through Friday, June 18.
ERCOT issued the following Conservation Alert:
A significant number of forced generation outages combined with potential record electric use for the month of June has resulted in tight grid conditions.
Generator owners have reported approximately 11,000 MW of generation is on forced outage for repairs; of that, approximately 8,000 MW is thermal and the rest is intermittent resources. According to the summer Seasonal Assessment of Resource Adequacy, a typical range of thermal generation outages on hot summer days is around 3,600 MW. One MW typically powers around 200 homes on a summer day.
“We will be conducting a thorough analysis with generation owners to determine why so many units are out of service,” said ERCOT Vice President of Grid Planning and Operations Woody Rickerson. “This is unusual for this early in the summer season.”
According to generation owners, the number of outages should decrease throughout the week.
Wind output for today is expected to be 3,500 to 6,000 MW between 3 and 9 p.m. This is roughly 1,500 MW lower than what is typically available for peak conditions. Wind output is expected to increase as the week goes on.
Today’s peak load forecast may exceed 73,000 MW. The peak demand record for June is 69,123 MW set on June 27, 2018 between 4 and 5 p.m.
Please take these simple actions to help reduce electric use:
◾Set your thermostat to 78 degrees or higher – every degree of cooling increases your energy use by six to eight percent.
◾Turn off lights and pool pumps and avoid using large appliances like ovens, washing machines and dryers.
◾If you don’t need something – we are asking you to turn it off and unplug it if possible.
This sent power prices spiking with SPGlobal.com reporting that Real-time locational marginal prices across major ERCOT zones topped $1,000/MWh around 1:30 pm CT, and reached almost $2,000/MWh around 2:15 pm CT, the current systemwide cap.
ERCOT spokeswoman Leslie Sopko said during a media call that as of 2:30 pm CT, the total capacity offline in forced outage was 12,178 MW offline, of which 9,066 MW was for thermal resources, while the remainder was for renewable resources. The total offline is three to four times what would typically be on forced outage during summer peak hours.
During that call, Warren Lasher, ERCOT senior director of system planning, said, “it’s unclear why we are seeing so many unplanned outages right now.” Less than 500 MW of the generation on outage is out for long-term maintenance issues, he said.
Some of the lost capacity appears related to derating – meaning generation is producing less than its nameplate capacity due to weather, mechanical, or fuel issues – but Lasher said he had heard of no problems with fuel delivery associated with this event.
Once again “renewables” are just not up to it as wind generation is reportedly playing a notable role in helping to push prices up, with average wind generation for June 15 predicted to tumble 28.8% to 3.5 GWh from about 4.9 GWh forecast for April 14. Despite the lower wind forecast, “wind output is expected to increase as the week goes on,” according to ERCOT.
And given the response from one Texas resident and long-time friend of ZH: “All I know is that I’m heading home and just absolutely cranking up my AC. Fuck ‘em!”
We suspect prices will be going higher given the weather forecast for the rest of the week/.
“deport invaders” is a good idea for a lot of reasons, but it won’t do anything about the folly of building ostensibly “green” power plants that don’t work at night, when the sky is cloudy, and when the wind doesn’t blow.
Coal and lignite plants are incredibly clean. Recent analysis has shown that the cradle-to-grave “carbon footprint” of coal plants and green wind & solar plants is the same when including all the inputs to manufacturing the plants.
There is NO justification to end burning coal. NONE.
Just like there is NO justification for ending gasoline fueled engines. NONE.
We are governed by ignoramuses who bow before Gaia and all of her zealots.
Very wise, but it will be like the Night of the living Dead for awhile. :(
Sounds like they need some nuclear plants.
We are lucky to live in a part of Texas that is not on ERCOT. We never lost power in February and have no issues now. Much of our power comes from reliable coal power plants. They are also the most environmentally friendly.
I hope and pray that the war on coal and other fossil fuels will fade away as more power outages occur.
I have some 48V 5,12kWh Gyll batteries. 2000 discharges guaranteed (19 years) as long as I don’t disagree them more than 80%.
I spent almost 30 years of my career in fossil fuel power generation. It just breaks my heart to see this crap. We built the worlds biggest, most sophisticated, most efficient, and cleanest power infrastructure in the world. And it’s all being wiped away for NO REASON.
I pray you are right. I fear the next generations are just too stupid and brainwashed to understand what’s going on and don’t see the correlation between high prices and low reliability with “green” crap.
I hope and pray that the war on coal and other fossil fuels will fade away as more power outages occur.
What if the power outages are to fuel the war on coal and fossil fuels? 🤔
Tried and true battery never dies until used. Coal!
great point
Absolutely agreed about it being a totally unforced error. Texas is swimming in natural gas. It makes no sense at all.
I've heard mention the public schools are churning out 300 times more newly minted leftist voters than what arrive from CA.
IMHO, solar is good if you do it yourself. Think more libertarian than like a big-government-one-size-fits-all-we-know-whats-best-for-you greenie libtard.
^ this + 1 Alternatives work well on a small scale. Taxpayer subsidized industrial scale, not so much. On a large scale there is no incentive to optimize.
The propagandists are doing to fossil fuels what they did to nuclear in the ‘70s. Nuclear never recovered leading to what we saw in Fukishima, running old obsolete nuclear technology far beyond when safer new tech should have been in place. That disaster further reinforced in the public’s hive mind that nuclear is bad. It’s a “self licking ice cream cone”.
Probably true
Likely so. Focusing on elections over culture (education,religion, arts & entertainment) is not a good strategy).
That’s an excellent comparison and exactly right.
They are also using the same agitprop technique against natural gas. Our town in CA is discussing a ban on new NG hookups for any new home (and probably extensive remodels, too).
Same thing with gasoline. Look at all the car companies that have declared they won’t build any gasoline powered cars after 2030.
We saw these unplanned outages in San Jose all the time even 30 years ago.
I’m sure it has not gotten better since CA pulled its two reactors from the grid.
Wait until there are 80 million electric cars sucking on the grid.
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Wait until there is alternate month charging ...
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