Now back to the article. It doesn't surprise me that Democrats are worse leaders than Republicans. But I'm glad someone took the time to examine the issue.
All over local news that Red states will die of Covid first once things open up again.
Of course, that is bs.
“I am so tired of people referring to Democrats as Democratic.”
You’re not alone.
I wanted to address this article before posting my (overdue) update on the size- and time-adjusted fatalities by country and state.
First, the article's analysis, while legit, is then mis-interpreted later on, i.e., "The dramatically different death rates between states with Republican and Democratic governors." All the writer did was pool the deaths per capital for Blue and Red (as defined by the Gov). Individual states may behave differently, and if one or two states overwhelm the pooled data then it's not a proper analysis.
A better specification would be to examine the size-adjusted fatalities as a function of the Gov being Blue or Red. You could also look at the makeup of the Upper House of the Legislative Branch of the States, and whether or not the State went for Trump in 2016. Finally, comparing the fatalities on any given day fails to take into account the fact that because each State flared up at different times, i.e., Washington State breached the national equivalent of 1,000 cumulative fatalities on March 9 vs March 29 for Pennsylvania. A better approach would be to compare the size- and time-adjusted fatalities as a function of Blue or Red factors.
So, I went and estimated six regressions, using the log of the adjusted fatality value as a function of dummy variables (1=Blue, 0= not) for the Gov, Trump in 2016, and Upper House (there isn't much difference between Upper and Lower blue/red status at the State level). Below I provide the overall p-value for the dummy variable:
| Dependent Variable | Gov=1 if Dem, 0 Otherwise | Trump=1 if Trump won, 0 Otherwise | 1 if Upper Assembly = Dem, 0 Otherwise |
| log(size adj fatalities 5/11/2020) | 0.0252 | 0.0018 | 0.0042 |
| Log(time and size adj fatalities Day 38) | 0.0682 | 0.0746 | 0.0879 |
So, what does this mean? Basically, it's a mixed bag (as some of the posters were saying). If you don't adjust for the timing of when each State heats up, then there is a relatively strong difference in fatalities (adjusted for population differences) along political lines - basically fatalities are higher in States that went for Hillary, have Dem govs, and have Democrat-controlled Houses. However, if you DO adjust for timing differences and use the size-adjusted fatality 38 Days after each state breaches the 1,000 size-adjusted fatality level, then your regression is 'insignificant' at the 5% p-value but not at the 10% p-value. In my experience, once p-value is higher than 5% regressions don't differentiate very much.
I think, at individual state levels, the makeup of governor is pretty important. Wolf in PA is a Dem and Baker in MA is a Republican but both States are disasters, while Hawaii (blue) and Wyoming (Red) are equally doing well. This is not a cut and dry issue.
And now, for the latest installment of the updated tracking of size- and time-adjusted COVID-19 deaths at the state and national level. For those new to the data, I standardize each municipality's cumulative COVID-19 fatality count per GitHub by its population, then multiply the resulting quotient by the US' population of 329MM to put everyone on a common/US scale. I then index each municipality's time-series to Day 1, where their size-adjusted fatality count is right before it breaches 1,000 people. This corrects for what I call the "Golf Problem" where broadcasts of the Masters etc have to show not only each golfer's score, but which hole they're at. I also list the Day 1 date and the population for reference. I've posted the history back to Day 1 on my About page.
Note for the US as nation, that Day 1 is March 25, which means Day 48 is May 11 for that row of data. You can do the math for the other municipalities to find out what Day XX means for them in calendar times; as a general rule, the last actual data point is the freshest date, but on a Golf timeline it gives each municipality's score as of the "48th hole."
The sort order is Day 48 for the international table, with Canada and Israel added based their Day 41 rankings. For the states' data, I sort by Day 44 which generally keeps the relative ranking steady for later days, most notably for the states with higher than national fatality totals.
The international ranking of the US hasn't changed in a long time. Sweden and the Netherlands' "hands off" approach hasn't yielded fewer fatalities than the US, and Sweden's actually gotten worse over the past few days - it's now lost 20k+ more people on an adjusted basis; she deserves her own scrutiny because SE isn't truly a hands-off/'flubro' nirvana. But that doesn't mean we should ignore what they're doing - maybe there is something to this herd immunity thing.
Stateside, for Day 48 the ranking of municipalities adjusted fatalities higher than the US as a whole remains unchanged over the past few weeks: New York (Blue), New Jersey (Blue), Connecticut (Blue), Massachusetts (Blue), Michigan (Red), Louisiana (Red) and District of Columbia (Blue), respectively. Rhode Island, Pennsylvania, Illinois and Delaware are also hotter than the national average on the basis of Day 44.
Pray for everyone impacted: the dead, the infected, and the unemployed. And let's open up the country.
| Country | Date of Day 1=day priot to hitting 1,000+ population-adjusted deaths | Population | Day 41 | Day 42 | Day 43 | Day 44 | Day 45 | Day 46 | Day 47 | Day 48 | Day 49 | Day 50 | Day 51 |
| San Marino | 3/3/20 | 33,574 | 343,554 | 343,554 | 353,370 | 353,370 | 373,001 | 382,817 | 382,817 | 382,817 | 382,817 | 392,633 | 392,633 |
| Belgium | 3/19/20 | 11,524,454 | 209,639 | 214,501 | 217,160 | 220,277 | 222,050 | 224,309 | 226,597 | 229,228 | 238,464 | 240,638 | 243,669 |
| Andorra | 3/21/20 | 77,543 | 178,499 | 182,749 | 186,999 | 191,249 | 191,249 | 195,499 | 195,499 | 199,749 | 199,749 | 203,999 | 203,999 |
| Spain | 3/13/20 | 47,100,396 | 151,951 | 155,030 | 157,598 | 160,243 | 162,258 | 164,574 | 166,680 | 169,850 | 171,725 | 171,725 | 175,622 |
| United Kingdom | 3/20/20 | 66,435,550 | 129,798 | 133,151 | 136,827 | 139,912 | 141,475 | 142,908 | 146,341 | 149,560 | 152,234 | 155,344 | 157,061 |
| Italy | 3/5/20 | 60,243,406 | 115,245 | 118,407 | 121,279 | 124,425 | 127,061 | 129,430 | 131,914 | 134,835 | 137,225 | 139,764 | 142,061 |
| France | 3/18/20 | 67,076,000 | 114,610 | 116,413 | 118,511 | 119,931 | 121,002 | 121,665 | 122,338 | 123,832 | 125,468 | 126,819 | 127,694 |
| Sweden | 3/23/20 | 10,333,456 | 85,120 | 85,439 | 88,309 | 91,020 | 93,795 | 96,952 | 101,258 | 102,693 | 102,852 | 103,841 | - |
| Ireland | 3/25/20 | 4,921,500 | 88,324 | 89,663 | 92,074 | 93,949 | 95,690 | 96,828 | 97,631 | 98,234 | - | - | - |
| Netherlands | 3/17/20 | 17,451,031 | 84,811 | 85,623 | 86,529 | 89,268 | 90,854 | 92,705 | 94,480 | 95,783 | 96,274 | 97,917 | 98,597 |
| United States | 3/25/20 | 329,556,365 | 68,922 | 71,064 | 73,431 | 75,662 | 77,180 | 78,795 | 79,526 | 80,682 | - | - | - |
| Switzerland | 3/16/20 | 8,586,550 | 61,370 | 61,793 | 63,904 | 65,209 | 65,861 | 66,667 | 67,319 | 67,626 | 67,626 | 68,471 | 68,893 |
| Canada | 4/1/20 | 37,979,093 | 44,384 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Luxembourg | 3/17/20 | 613,894 | 47,241 | 47,241 | 47,778 | 47,778 | 48,315 | 49,388 | 49,388 | 51,536 | 51,536 | 51,536 | 52,609 |
| Macedonia | 3/24/20 | 679,600 | 40,734 | 41,219 | 41,704 | 42,674 | 43,158 | 43,643 | 44,128 | 44,128 | 44,128 | - | - |
| Portugal | 3/23/20 | 10,276,617 | 32,806 | 33,448 | 34,089 | 34,442 | 34,923 | 35,436 | 35,724 | 36,109 | 36,398 | 36,686 | - |
| Germany | 3/25/20 | 83,149,300 | 27,716 | 27,716 | 28,834 | 29,298 | 29,765 | 29,920 | 29,999 | 30,364 | - | - | - |
| Denmark | 3/22/20 | 5,822,763 | 26,035 | 26,884 | 27,393 | 27,903 | 28,469 | 28,639 | 29,091 | 29,544 | 29,771 | 29,940 | 30,167 |
| Austria | 3/23/20 | 8,902,600 | 22,063 | 22,137 | 22,211 | 22,433 | 22,507 | 22,544 | 22,729 | 22,766 | 22,877 | 22,951 | - |
| Iran | 3/9/20 | 83,331,064 | 19,897 | 20,241 | 20,600 | 20,948 | 21,320 | 21,676 | 22,044 | 22,345 | 22,582 | 22,961 | 23,242 |
| Israel | 4/1/20 | 9,180,000 | 9,262 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Iceland | 3/23/20 | 364,260 | 9,047 | 9,047 | 9,047 | 9,047 | 9,047 | 9,047 | 9,047 | 9,047 | 9,047 | 9,047 | - |
| Municipality | Date of Day 1 = day prior to breaching size-adj 1,000 COVID19 fatalities | Population | Day 41 | Day 42 | Day 43 | Day 44 | Day 45 | Day 46 | Day 47 | Day 48 | Day 49 | Day 50 | Day 51 |
| New York | 3/19/20 | 19,795,791 | 379,187 | 387,677 | 393,154 | 396,900 | 400,130 | 409,136 | 412,666 | 416,661 | 432,110 | 436,272 | 438,803 |
| New Jersey | 3/23/20 | 8,958,013 | 284,820 | 289,566 | 291,001 | 303,289 | 314,509 | 323,780 | 329,335 | 335,369 | 340,482 | 343,609 | - |
| Connecticut | 3/23/20 | 3,590,886 | 223,566 | 223,566 | 234,579 | 241,646 | 249,447 | 256,697 | 263,764 | 269,087 | 272,299 | 276,062 | - |
| Massachusetts | 3/25/20 | 6,794,422 | 198,381 | 204,299 | 214,387 | 220,790 | 228,066 | 234,759 | 241,501 | 247,758 | - | - | - |
| Michigan | 3/24/20 | 9,922,576 | 134,479 | 137,335 | 138,796 | 141,154 | 144,243 | 145,904 | 150,321 | 151,151 | 152,247 | - | - |
| Louisiana | 3/20/20 | 4,670,724 | 127,145 | 131,379 | 135,965 | 137,588 | 138,928 | 140,481 | 144,079 | 147,748 | 150,641 | 151,982 | 154,804 |
| District of Columbia | 3/24/20 | 672,228 | 123,051 | 126,483 | 129,425 | 135,798 | 139,720 | 149,034 | 152,466 | 158,349 | 160,800 | - | - |
| Rhode Island | 3/29/20 | 1,056,298 | 124,485 | 130,413 | 131,661 | 134,156 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Pennsylvania | 3/28/20 | 12,802,503 | 92,644 | 95,862 | 97,638 | 98,307 | 98,642 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Illinois | 3/27/20 | 12,859,995 | 76,290 | 80,442 | 83,594 | 86,156 | 87,796 | 88,642 | - | - | - | - | - |
| Delaware | 3/27/20 | 945,934 | 67,240 | 70,375 | 74,208 | 76,995 | 78,040 | 78,388 | - | - | - | - | - |
| United States | 3/25/20 | 329,556,365 | 68,922 | 71,064 | 73,431 | 75,662 | 77,180 | 78,795 | 79,526 | 80,682 | - | - | - |
| Indiana | 3/26/20 | 6,619,680 | 66,014 | 68,553 | 70,395 | 72,038 | 74,179 | 75,075 | 76,668 | - | - | - | - |
| Colorado | 3/24/20 | 5,456,574 | 50,733 | 51,276 | 54,417 | 55,504 | 56,893 | 57,860 | 58,282 | 58,524 | 59,611 | - | - |
| Mississippi | 3/27/20 | 2,992,333 | 41,190 | 43,613 | 45,045 | 46,366 | 47,357 | 47,908 | - | - | - | - | - |
| Georgia | 3/23/20 | 10,214,860 | 37,457 | 37,683 | 39,618 | 41,199 | 42,232 | 43,006 | 44,458 | 44,522 | 44,619 | 46,587 | - |
| Ohio | 3/29/20 | 11,614,373 | 37,058 | 37,767 | 38,051 | 38,505 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Virginia | 3/29/20 | 8,382,993 | 31,922 | 32,511 | 32,983 | 33,416 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Nevada | 3/24/20 | 2,890,845 | 29,868 | 30,324 | 31,464 | 32,604 | 33,402 | 34,314 | 34,884 | 34,884 | 35,568 | - | - |
| Washington | 3/8/20 | 7,170,351 | 28,036 | 28,909 | 29,277 | 30,380 | 31,391 | 31,989 | 32,954 | 33,597 | 34,149 | 34,792 | 35,436 |
| Florida | 3/29/20 | 20,271,272 | 27,117 | 27,865 | 27,963 | 28,206 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Vermont | 3/18/20 | 626,042 | 24,741 | 24,741 | 24,741 | 25,794 | 26,321 | 26,847 | 27,900 | 27,900 | 27,900 | 27,900 | 28,426 |
| Wisconsin | 3/29/20 | 5,771,337 | 21,927 | 22,727 | 22,841 | 23,355 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| California | 3/27/20 | 39,144,818 | 20,862 | 21,561 | 22,310 | 23,000 | 23,312 | 23,396 | - | - | - | - | - |
| Oklahoma | 3/27/20 | 3,911,338 | 21,317 | 21,907 | 22,412 | 22,749 | 22,918 | 23,086 | - | - | - | - | - |
| South Carolina | 3/27/20 | 4,896,146 | 20,529 | 21,270 | 21,539 | 22,212 | 22,279 | 23,289 | - | - | - | - | - |
| Kansas | 3/29/20 | 2,911,641 | 18,902 | 19,468 | 19,468 | 20,373 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| North Dakota | 3/29/20 | 756,927 | 14,368 | 15,239 | 15,239 | 15,674 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Idaho | 3/28/20 | 1,654,930 | 13,342 | 13,342 | 13,342 | 13,342 | 13,940 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Oregon | 3/27/20 | 4,028,977 | 9,407 | 9,897 | 10,143 | 10,388 | 10,388 | 10,634 | - | - | - | - | - |
| Montana | 3/29/20 | 1,032,949 | 5,105 | 5,105 | 5,105 | 5,105 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Maryland | 3/31/20 | 6,006,401 | 90,202 | 92,342 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Minnesota | 3/31/20 | 5,489,594 | 34,699 | 35,479 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| New Hampshire | 4/1/20 | 1,330,608 | 32,941 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| New Mexico | 4/1/20 | 2,085,109 | 32,875 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Iowa | 4/1/20 | 3,123,899 | 28,589 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Missouri | 4/1/20 | 6,083,672 | 27,844 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Alabama | 3/31/20 | 4,858,979 | 26,655 | 27,333 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Arizona | 3/30/20 | 6,828,065 | 25,677 | 25,870 | 26,160 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Kentucky | 3/30/20 | 4,425,092 | 23,236 | 23,236 | 23,162 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Nebraska | 4/1/20 | 1,896,190 | 17,032 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Maine | 3/30/20 | 1,329,328 | 15,866 | 15,866 | 16,114 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Tennessee | 3/31/20 | 6,600,299 | 12,083 | 12,533 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Puerto Rico | 4/1/20 | 3,680,058 | 10,119 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Arkansas | 3/31/20 | 2,978,204 | 10,070 | 10,402 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |