Free Republic
Browse · Search
Bloggers & Personal
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

What if hydroxychloroquine doesn’t work? What if it does? Right now, we don’t know
STAT ^ | March 27, 2020 | Matthew Herper

Posted on 03/29/2020 10:58:40 AM PDT by Widget Jr

An old malaria medicine, hydroxychloroquine, has gone viral on the internet. But is it really an antiviral drug?

The medicine has been seen as a potential treatment for Covid-19, the disease caused by the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, almost since outbreaks started. This week it made headlines, due in part to tweets from President Trump and in part because of a small French study of 42 patients that seemed to show that hydroxychloroquine, particularly when combined with the antibiotic azithromycin, helped decrease patients’ levels of coronavirus. Unfortunately, the rumors about the drug’s efficacy have also encouraged some to buy and even consume a similarly named fish tank cleaner; one person has died.

But a second study emerged last week from Shanghai University in China of 30 patients hospitalized for Covid-19. Whether patients received hydroxychloroquine or not, their body temperature returned to normal a day after hospitalization, and the time it took for levels of the virus to become undetectable was comparable. Unlike the study from France, the patients in this study were randomly assigned to either hydroxychloroquine or the control group, which makes the results more reliable.

Jun Chen, one of the authors of the Shanghai study, called the French study’s results “interesting” but said they needed to be evaluated in another randomized study.

“Both our study and theirs had many limitations,” Chen wrote. “But personally, I would say that hydroxychloroquine was not a ‘magic’ drug, if there is any antiviral effect. And in fact, hydroxychloroquine has never been effective in any viral diseases, despite its in vitro antiviral activity.” “In vitro antiviral activity” means that the drug stops the virus from infecting cells in the dish.

The first mention of the Shanghai study came from a paper in The Lancet Global Health, where the results were described as positive. One of the authors of the Lancet paper, Oriol Mitjà, wrote via email that changes on CT scans showed “that the drug has some efficacy” against Covid-19. In the Shanghai study, worsening of the disease that could be picked up on a CT scan happened in 33% of those on hydroxychloroquine (that’s 5 patients) versus 47% of those in the control group (7 patients).

Mitjà was even more optimistic about the French study, saying it has “new and stronger data.”

But objections have been raised to the French study paper, even as it’s bounced around the Internet. Fox host Sean Hannity even shared another doctor’s letter on his experience using the hydroxychloroquine/azithromycin combination on his television show on March 23.

Three statisticians published a review of the French study that argued that the way it was designed made the treatments look better than they actually are. They pointed to the lack of randomization, as well as an inappropriate control group composed partly of people who refused to take the drug. They also noted that the study dropped some patients from the analysis — the small study of 42 patients actually only included data from 36. The Shanghai study, which showed less impact from the treatments, adds to the questions about the French study, wrote Tim Morris, a statistician at the MRC clinical trials unit at University College, London.

“The [French] study gave very little useful information about whether hydroxychloroquine might help,” Morris wrote. “The Shanghai study is better (because they had a meaningful control group) but gives us very little information that hydroxychloroquine doesn’t help.” The data, he wrote, are “compatible with a wide range of possible effects,” which is statistician-speak for, “Nobody knows whether the drug helps or not.”

The Shanghai study, Morris wrote, is a step in the right direction toward some bigger, better trials that are kicking off. The first of these might give some answers in April — a short time when it comes to clinical trials, but potentially after the United States, and particularly New York City, will have seen a tsunami of Covid-19 cases.

Some doctors on the front lines will use these drug combinations, particularly with patients who are so sick they are on ventilators. As one doctor told me, the risks associated with these drugs, like heart rhythm disturbance or worsening psoriasis, don’t warrant not using them in patients who are in serious trouble. But there is also a need to conduct studies of them to find out if they are truly effective. New York Governor Andrew Cuomo signed an executive order saying that pharmacists should not dispense the drugs to treat Covid-19 unless they are part of a clinical trial. Studies for another drug, remdesivir from Gilead Sciences, are expected to read out in the coming weeks.

Zach Weinberg, one of the co-founders of Flatiron Health, a division of Roche, remembers the difficult transition of going from working in online advertising, where his first company was focused, to Flatiron, which is focused on cancer. In software, more data is better. In cancer, the wrong type of data can lead to conclusions that are not only incorrect but dangerous.

“Sometimes people confuse saying, ‘the study doesn’t tell you anything’ with saying the drug doesn’t work,” Weinberg said. “That’s a really important distinction. They’re not the same thing. I’m not saying the drug doesn’t work or does work. What I’m actually saying is nobody knows if the drug works or doesn’t work.”

His lesson: when dealing with a pandemic, listen to experts who are used to grappling with these problems.

“Society tends to put people who’ve been successful in one area on a pedestal, and draw the conclusion that means they’re expert at many things even though the expertise that they had in one area has nothing to do with the other,” Weinberg said.

About the Author
Matthew Herper

Senior Writer, Medicine

Matthew covers medical innovation — both its promise and its perils.


TOPICS: Health/Medicine; Society
KEYWORDS: coronavirus; covid19
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-20 ... 61-8081-100101-120121-122 next last
To: absalom01

The zinc is the reason why the hydroxychloroquine works. It lets zinc into the cells, where it stops the replication of the virus. Supplemental zinc makes certain that your body has enough to work with (because sick people usually don’t eat much).


101 posted on 03/29/2020 1:23:28 PM PDT by Ancesthntr ("The right to buy weapons is the right to be free." A. E. van Vogt, The Weapons Shops of Isher)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 47 | View Replies]

To: CatOwner

Dr. Farce is a nut job!


102 posted on 03/29/2020 1:27:58 PM PDT by tallyhoe
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 10 | View Replies]

To: freeandfreezing; Cooter
I followed up a bit and found the report on the study. If I read it correctly, chloroquine was added to conventional treatment (including antivirals) in the test group and the control got conventional (including antivirials).

Here is a link to a google translation of what I found.

103 posted on 03/29/2020 1:33:05 PM PDT by Database
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 71 | View Replies]

To: abigkahuna

FYI, my mother has cardiac affib, which can be induced by hydroxychloroquine. But she also has RA, and hydroxychloroquine is an approved medication for it. She has been taking hydroxychloroquine for 5 years, with no ill effects. Taking it for 5 days isn’t going to do anything bad to 999,999 out of a million people, and if it induces affib, there are MANY treatments for it.

I will DEMAND hydroxychloroquine, zinc and a z-lack if I get this virus, and ditto for my family. This is practical medicine, even if some multi-year study aimed at developing a multi-billion dollar blockbuster drug has to proven it, and even if Dems desperate to tank the economy don’t like that Orange Man Bad likes the effects that hydroxychloroquine has.


104 posted on 03/29/2020 1:40:47 PM PDT by Ancesthntr ("The right to buy weapons is the right to be free." A. E. van Vogt, The Weapons Shops of Isher)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 62 | View Replies]

To: Ancesthntr

Since we know there is potential for affib reactions, I am thinking that taking some metoprolol will mitigate that reaction. It is an issue for moi. Don’t have Affib, but SVT, which is AFib in a different location of the heart.


105 posted on 03/29/2020 1:44:10 PM PDT by abigkahuna (How can you be at two places at once when you are nowhere at all?)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 104 | View Replies]

To: Bethaneidh

“Some Lupus patients have taken it daily for years.”
——————
Ditto for arthritis patients, including my mother, who has taken it for 5 years with no ill effects.


106 posted on 03/29/2020 1:44:39 PM PDT by Ancesthntr ("The right to buy weapons is the right to be free." A. E. van Vogt, The Weapons Shops of Isher)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 65 | View Replies]

To: Database
Machine based translations are sometimes hard to interpret, but it seems like the control group also included treatment with a variety of medications:

"The subjects were randomly assigned to the experimental group and the control group at a ratio of 1:

1. The test group received conventional treatment plus oral hydroxyl sulfate Chloroquine 400 mg once daily for 5 days; the control group received routine treatment only, including bed rest, oxygen inhalation, symptomatic support Sustained treatment, using antiviral drugs such as interferon alpha nebulization, oral lopinavir / ritonavir recommended in the "diagnosis and treatment plan" (Creature), etc., if necessary, give antibacterial drugs.

107 posted on 03/29/2020 1:46:46 PM PDT by freeandfreezing
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 103 | View Replies]

To: dfwgator

Great movie...I do believe that I will watch it again (plenty of time on my hands for some reason).


108 posted on 03/29/2020 1:49:51 PM PDT by Ancesthntr ("The right to buy weapons is the right to be free." A. E. van Vogt, The Weapons Shops of Isher)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 82 | View Replies]

To: Ancesthntr

Yup, that’s what he says, too. Dr. Raoult claims to have had the same success with just the first two though. Time will tell.

I’ve been a zinc supplement fan for years, myself, and I believe it works.


109 posted on 03/29/2020 1:55:25 PM PDT by absalom01 (You should do your duty in all things. You cannot do more, and you should never wish to do less.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 101 | View Replies]

To: Widget Jr

So far my experiment with gin & tonic is showing results. Just wish I could remember them.


110 posted on 03/29/2020 1:58:49 PM PDT by P.O.E. (Pray for America)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: GulfMan

I don’t think it’s the intubators as much as the state of health one is in when needing it.


111 posted on 03/29/2020 2:01:15 PM PDT by HollyB
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 36 | View Replies]

To: Database
Thanks for running the machine translation. It looks like the Shanghai study was comparing the existing Chinese mix of anti-virals with that same mix with hydroxychloroquine added among a group of patients who were about to get better, or for all practical purposes were cured.

"All subjects were screened on the day of admission, randomized. Start treatment (including antiviral treatment). General demographic data, clinical manifestations, laboratory test results of the two groups at the time of enrollment.

There were no statistically significant differences in chest CT findings (Table 1).

All patients received alpha interferon nebulization, while Twelve (80.0%) patients in the experimental group received Abidol; 10 (66.7%) patients in the control group received Abidol. Two patients (13.3%) received lopinavir / ritonavir

Arbidol is Umifenovir, a Russian developed anti-viral medication.

So the control group and the test group both received a cocktail of anti-virals.

The study really shows, if anything, that adding hydroxychloroquine to the anti-viral treatment cocktail doesn't add much. That is not surprising since the patients were just about cured anyway.

112 posted on 03/29/2020 2:01:28 PM PDT by freeandfreezing
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 103 | View Replies]

To: Widget Jr
"But a second study emerged last week from Shanghai University in China of 30 patients hospitalized for Covid-19. Whether patients received hydroxychloroquine or not, their body temperature returned to normal a day after hospitalization..."

"From China? Then, obviously, that's a fact, Jack!"


113 posted on 03/29/2020 2:32:00 PM PDT by moovova (It's not the Wuhu Flu...it's pollen season.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: throwthebumsout
"We’ve been hearing about this treatment for almost two weeks. You would think we would know something by now."

We know it works. What you are seeing is the results of an anti HCQ/antiTrump FUD campaign, including a bunch of FUD-Trolls on FR. I've been on FR for a LONG time, and most of these posters I've never heard of before, yet suddenly, they are all over the place with anti-HCQ articles and commentary.

114 posted on 03/29/2020 2:44:15 PM PDT by Wonder Warthog (The Hog of Steel and NRA Life Member)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 60 | View Replies]

To: Jayster
"Took the Hydroxychloroquine and was fine in 2 days "

Did your brother take azithromycin also? I seem to recall that the reported 100% cure rate from the French study was for the group that did take both drugs.

115 posted on 03/29/2020 3:03:46 PM PDT by William Tell
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 30 | View Replies]

To: Widget Jr

From TheDonald.win (not mine):

Novartis CEO: “[HCQ] destroys the virus in animal testing” https://www.google.com/amp/s/finance.yahoo.com/amphtml/news/novartis-ceo-says-malaria-drug-072752054.html

India officially recommends HCQ as a preventative for health care workers and people with confirmed family members. https://mobile.twitter.com/brithume/status/1243695604938801153

NYC critical care physician taking HCQ as a preventative. https://mobile.twitter.com/brithume/status/1243695604938801153

French government reverses earlier ban on hydroxychloroquine for treating COVID19 patients in light of successful clinical studies showing significant efficacy against the virus. Hydroxychloroquine may now be prescribed to treat COVID-19 in France https://twitter.com/MichaelCoudrey/status/1243779158737440768

95 year old woman afflicted with Corona Virus who refused intubation recovered fully after treatment with HCQ and Zpack. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-swiss-survivor-idUSKBN21E2OW

HCQ and Zpack showed success in 80 person trial. All recovered within 6 days which is significantly better than control besides one in ICU and one dead 86 year old who already had a late stage of the illness. Considering the small amount of people over 80 in the population this data, while small, implies a very small mortality rate. The Dr, Dr. Rauolt, is one of the most cited epidemiologists in the world. https://techstartups.com/2020/03/27/coronavirus-cure-new-results-french-study-shows-combination-hydroxychloroquine-plaquenil-azithromycin-successfully-treated-80-coronavirus-patients-significant-dr/

Dr. Zelenko, NY physician, treats 699 people with HCQ, only 4 hospitalized, zero intubated, all recovered. https://techstartups.com/2020/03/28/dr-vladimir-zelenko-now-treated-699-coronavirus-patients-100-success-using-hydroxychloroquine-sulfate-zinc-z-pak-update/

https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/public-global-health/489810-poll-nearly-90-percent-say-they-are-practicing-social 90% of americans say they are practicing social distancing as much as possible. We can infer they are following other guide lines as well

(Reposted due to me editing it slightly)


116 posted on 03/29/2020 3:24:37 PM PDT by grey_whiskers (The opinions are solely those of the author and are subject to change with out notice.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: wardaddy

Haseltine is an open globalist.


117 posted on 03/29/2020 3:25:34 PM PDT by grey_whiskers (The opinions are solely those of the author and are subject to change with out notice.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 22 | View Replies]

To: Bethaneidh

“ Some Lupus patients have taken it daily for years.”

His wife has Lupus and already had it in the house readily available


118 posted on 03/29/2020 3:32:26 PM PDT by Jayster (Legalize Marijuana)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 65 | View Replies]

To: William Tell

“ Did your brother take azithromycin also?”

He told me that he had the Z Pack but never took it.

It is my understanding that the other drug(Z pack) is for the 2ndary pneumonia


119 posted on 03/29/2020 3:36:06 PM PDT by Jayster (Legalize Marijuana)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 115 | View Replies]

To: grey_whiskers

Indeed

Short rope


120 posted on 03/29/2020 5:11:11 PM PDT by wardaddy (I applaud Jim Robinson for his comments on the Southern Monuments decision ...thank you)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 117 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-20 ... 61-8081-100101-120121-122 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
Bloggers & Personal
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson