Media Hysteria Notwithstanding, The Real Numbers on COVID-19 Are Actually Encouragin

Listen to the experts, follow the real data and ignore the corrupt news media. – As our corrupt news media establishment continues to work overtime to try to foment panic among the public, it is becoming increasingly apparent from the real numbers on the ground that the outbreak of the China Virus, COVID-19, is not likely to be as widespread as some have feared. You don’t have to believe me about it: All you have to believe is the experts, and the numbers.

Let’s start in England, where alarmists at Imperial College dramatically downgraded their previous wild projections of the spread of the disease this week:

2/ He now says both that the U.K. should have enough ICU beds and that the coronavirus will probably kill under 20,000 people in the U.K. – more than 1/2 of whom would have died by the end of the year in any case bc they were so old and sick.

So, in one day, the projection drops from a wildly over-blown 500,000 UK deaths to 20,000, a reduction of 96%.

Now, let’s move to America, where our corrupt news media, in its endless zeal to do harm to President Donald Trump, has been making similar wild projections on a daily basis through either rank stupidity or – more likely – an intentional effort to create mass panic. Over the past two days, Dr. Deborah Birx, a woman renowned for her expertise in this field, has twice lectured the media for its outrageous conduct, albeit in a calm and pleasant way that only she can do.

In case you missed them because you either could not watch the press conferences live or because your favorite media outlet refused to mention these crucial facts, below are two clips followed by transcripts lovingly and laboriously prepared by yours truly.

"That is nowhere close to the numbers you see people putting out there. I think it has frightened the American people." pic.twitter.com/nZdM5fSpeW

Dr. Birx: I know it has become a place where people are looking at numbers, rather than what is needed. Because when you do these projections, when you got to those projections that said – like a Germany and others that implied that 60% or 50% of the population would get infected – I want to be very clear: The only way that happens is if this virus remains continuously moving through populations in this cycle, in the fall cycle, and another cycle. So that’s three cycles with nothing being done.

We’re dealing with Cycle A right now, not the one that could come in the fall of 2020, and we’re getting prepared for it by innovations that are being worked. And not the 2021. We’re really dealing with the here and now while we’re planning for the future.

And I think the numbers that have been put out there are very frightening to people. But I can tell you if you go back and look at Wuhan and Hubei and all of these provinces, when they talk about 60,000 people being infected, even if you said, alright, well, there’s asymptomatics and all of that, so you get to 600,000 people out of 80 million. That is nowhere close to the numbers that you see people putting out there.

I think it has frightened the American people, I think that on a model that you just run full-out that you can get to those numbers if you have zero controls and you do nothing. We know that every American is doing something.

So, I think what our job right now is is to carefully detail, on a hospital by hospital, state by state, county by county level, to outline what the infrastructure needs are and ensure that we are meeting them, both from the stockpile, and from the movement and the generosity of the American people and other hospitals.

Now, since the corrupt media just kept on putting out bad information after Wednesday’s polite lecture, here is Dr. Birx reinforcing those messages as they relate specifically to New York at Thursday’s press conference:

“There are still ICU beds remaining and there is still… over a thousand or two thousand ventilators that have not been utilized yet.”pic.twitter.com/rWCNt91ncW

Dr. Birx: Then finally the situation about ventilators: We were reassured in a meeting with our colleagues in New York that there are still ICU beds remaining, and there are still significant – over a thousand or two thousand – ventilators that have not been utilized yet.

Please, for the reassurance of people around the world, to wake up this morning and look at people talking about creating DNR situations – Do Not Resuscitate situations for patients – there is no situation in the United States right now that warrants that kind of discussion.

You can be thinking about it in a hospital; certainly, many hospitals talk about this on a daily basis. But to say that to the American people, to make the implication that when they need a hospital bed it’s not going to be there, or when they need that ventilator it’s not going to be there, we don’t have an evidence of that right now.

And it’s our job collectively to assure the American people that, it’s our collective job to make sure that does not happen. Right now, you can see these cases are concentrated in highly-urban areas. There are other parts of the state that have lots of ventilators, and other parts of New York State that don’t have a lot of infections right now.

So we can be creative. We can meet the need by being responsive. But there’s no model right now, no reality on the ground where we can see that 60-70% of Americans are going to get infected in the next 8 to 12 weeks. I just want to be clear about that. So we’re adapting to the reality on the ground. We’re looking at the models and how they can inform, but we are also learning very clearly from South Korea, and from Italy, and from Spain.

There, clear enough? Certainly, it will be to any reader of Today’s Campaign Update, since you are all well-meaning and intelligent people with actual functioning synapses in your cranial cavities.

But what about the hate-filled, rage-filled liberal clowns who infest the corrupt news media? All you need to do is look at how former Clinton press secretary Joe Lockhart, himself a paid contributor at CNN, responded to Dr. Birx’s Thursday comments:

The guy’s such an ignorant jackass that he can’t even spell her name correctly. And he is utterly typical of the people working in the corrupt national news media today.

Don’t get me wrong here: I am not attempting to downplay the seriousness of this virus. All I am trying to do is deal with reality, and with the facts on the ground. We should all be watching the daily Coronavirus Task Force updates, and updates provided by our state and local officials.

My wife and I are staying at home, other than trips to the grocery and drug stores. We are washing our hands 25 times a day, if not more. We are social distancing like a couple of fiends. We are driving our cat stark, raving mad with our constant presence in the house. We are following every piece of advice that these experts and public officials are giving us, and so should you.

What we are NOT doing is spending even a moment watching CNN or MSNBC or any of the three major broadcast networks, because we know that we will get nothing but corrupt disinformation from all of those sources.

This is the model of behavior that everyone should be following, because it is the model of behavior that will get our country past this viral outbreak and our lives returned to some semblance of normalcy as soon as possible.

Let’s all deal with facts and reality: The best way to do that is to ignore the corrupt news media.

In times when Americans had better judgment, one would not have been able to steal their very livelihood by a campaign of media lies. Financial panics happened among those with money to worry about, but the bedrock of common sense always stood firm.

This sorry Fake Virus panic revealed a serious failure of that bedrock. We are weak. We are driven by emotions, not common sense. The next generation is not grounded enough to defend the freedom of the individual.

The test: Every mayor and governor who has acted as a despot in taking away our guaranteed freedoms should be thrown out of office. There is no excuse for their rescinding their oaths to uphold the Constitution.

The Dem Media has "Gotta stoke the fear" to keep alive as they are on Life Support from George Soros.

They desperately don't want to cover Trump, but if they do many will go under. It's a Catch-22 for the Dem Media.

It's all about money to stay alive.

You can do your part by not clicking on any Dem Media Ad or Website. If you are watching TV and see a company Ad supporting the Dem Media (CNN, ABC, CBS, etc.)- call and tell them you won't be buying from them as long as they do (especially automobile advertisements).

After November, the Dem Media is in real trouble as he won't need them any more. Many will go belly up and deservedly so! So do your part through this election and starve the Rabid Beast Dem Media.

Except there were very few caveats with the original hysterical model guided estimation. The media and these so called experts need to be held accountable for their actions. They use fictitious numbers for political purposes (ie anthropogenic climate change), it massively affects peoples lives, and they have zero accountability. It’s social terrorism plain and simple.

I’ll go one step further and say we should admit we overreacted, and go back to our jobs and our normal activities, with a few changes:

Working or attending classes remotely from home, is great if possible.
Stop traditional physical greetings - handshakes, embraces, etc..
Avoid touching things unnecessarily - doorknobs, handrails, fixtures, etc..
Wash hands frequently.
Stay home when you are sick! Keep your kids home when they are sick!

Most important of all:

As we learn more about this virus - how contagious it is, how many people get seriously sick, the true mortality rate - take care to distinguish between what is known and what is unknown - between what is true and not true. What is fact and what is conjecture.

If this virus turns out to be far less deadly than the seasonal flu, then we will have needlessly destroyed tens of millions of jobs and families. Many people argued this point and were mocked and dismissed as “flubros”. That was wrong - we should have been able to have that conversation. The “flubros” may well turn out to have been right.

The bottom line is that sober risk assessment is every bit as important as a robust medical response. Yes, we can destroy lives by under-reacting, but we can also destroy lives by overreacting. We shouldn’t make one mistake to avoid another mistake.

Or as President Trump has been saying, we can’t let the cure be worse than the disease.

If this virus turns out to be far less deadly than the seasonal flu, then we will have needlessly destroyed tens of millions of jobs and families.

The mortality rate so far is 24,863 deaths out of 549,604 cases, or 4.52% (data current as of 8:28 AM EDT). This is higher than even the 1917-1919 H1N1 pandemic that killed 50 million people. With 397,210 active cases and a time to death of 2-8 weeks after infection, there is a lot of room for the death rate to increase. Additionally, there is reason to believe that this virus is comparable to the common cold in transmissibility, since it is, in fact, a killer cold virus. Since, in general, the more deadly a virus is, the less communicable it is, the Covid-19 occupies what I call a "sweet spot" for viruses, in that its mortality rate is low enough to not significantly affect its transmission, but high enough to cause millions of deaths.

There are a lot of hallmarks about this virus that have government public health officials alarmed. The purpose of public health is to prevent the worst case scenario; this is why the measures are in place to limit social interaction. If we become complacent now, millions of lives are at risk.

I should add that the suppositions about high numbers of asymptomatic cases are not based on any scientific measure. They are pure conjecture, models based on assumptions that themselves have no scientific evidentiary basis.

“I should add that the suppositions about high numbers of asymptomatic cases are not based on any scientific measure. They are pure conjecture, models based on assumptions that themselves have no scientific evidentiary basis.”

Duh. Of course there is no scientific measure to support the unreported cases. They are unreported. It is amazing that I even have to say that.

No matter how often you repeat it, your 4.52% mortality rate is complete bullshit - the denominator is grossly understated.

And if you believe the denominator is NOT understated - then show me your scientific evidentiary basis for arriving at that conclusion.

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.