Posted on 03/23/2020 5:44:30 AM PDT by Its All Over Except ...
I often managed to talk myself out of going places long before this :). My inertia usually won out over true need. Having said that...we have started to run dangerously low on some essentials..meaning red wine and vodka. Yikes. Saw a funny meme this morning: “For the third time this week I’m buying booze for the next two weeks.” :). Gotta say...some really funny memes are coming out with this. Should be a whole thread on everyone’s favorite. Hang in there..this, too, shall pass.
The Italian rates should be thrown out as well as the Chinese. The Italians are calling anything connected or not as mortality rates.
Yes I’ve read it. You did not address the infections where the viral load was undetectable as well as those with previous infections that no longer test positive. Along with asymptomatic cases, these are all added to the denominator. The true mortality rate will be vastly lower than the current media wants the sheeple to believe.
35/65 = 54%.
I’ve got a bottle and a half of bourbon and one bottle of patron tequila, but the problem is I don’t drink at all :D
Well every now and then I’ll have an Abita Andygator, but that’s about it these days.
Only water, unsweet tea and a bit of daily milk for me. The exciting life of “Diabeedis”-Wilford Brimley.
Source: https://archive.is/o/8s0Ok/https://t.co/AwE2cHIbeJ
The optimal timing of interventions differs between suppression and mitigation strategies, as well as depending on the definition of optimal. However, for mitigation, the majority of the effect of such a strategy can be achieved by targeting interventions in a three-month window around the peak of the epidemic. For suppression, early action is important, and interventions need to be in place well before healthcare capacity is overwhelmed. Given the most systematic surveillance occurs in the hospital context, the typical delay from infection to hospitalisation means there is a 2- to 3-week lag between interventions being introduced and the impact being seen in hospitalised case numbers, depending on whether all hospital admissions are tested or only those entering critical care units. In the GB context, this means acting before COVID-19 admissions to ICUs exceed 200 per week.
Perhaps our most significant conclusion is that mitigation is unlikely to be feasible without emergency surge capacity limits of the UK and US healthcare systems being exceeded many times over. In the most effective mitigation strategy examined, which leads to a single, relatively short epidemic (case isolation, household quarantine and social distancing of the elderly), the surge limits for both general ward and ICU beds would be exceeded by at least 8-fold under the more optimistic scenario for critical care requirements that we examined. In addition, even if all patients were able to be treated, we predict there would still be in the order of 250,000 deaths in GB, and 1.1-1.2 million in the US.
In the UK, this conclusion has only been reached in the last few days, with the refinement of estimates of likely ICU demand due to COVID-19 based on experience in Italy and the UK (previous planning estimates assumed half the demand now estimated) and with the NHS providing increasing certainty around the limits of hospital surge capacity.
We therefore conclude that epidemic suppression is the only viable strategy at the current time. The social and economic effects of the measures which are needed to achieve this policy goal will be profound. Many countries have adopted such measures already, but even those countries at an earlier stage of their epidemic (such as the UK) will need to do so imminently.
Thanks for your detailed response.
I too will be watching the trend lines. And I too am hoping for a transition to arithmetic progression. We both know it will come. The question is when and how much damage is left in it’s wake to both human and economic health.
If you get the right government scientist, and even a group of scientists to peer review the first scientist conclusions. You could conclude life as we know it, on planet Earth, is doomed,
Settled Science!
Yes, which is exactly the situation here in the US. Those exhibiting either no or extremely mild symptoms have not been tested. When you add that number to those that have either already been infected and those that were tested and had viral loads that were below detection limits the denominator gets much bigger resulting in a mortality rate that is vastly lower.
Again, we’ll see what the number is when all of this is over with. I’d be willing to lay $ on the mortality rate being much, much lower than CNN breathlessly trumpets on a daily basis.
Oh man...sorry to hear about The Diabeedis. Golly. That adds to the “fun”, doesn’t it? Make sure you have all your supplies. Don’t be afraid to ask your endo for any samples and get the numbers for Lilly or Novo ..they may have programs to get samples, too.
I’m good for three months. If it goes on beyond that, getting a resupply will require going out.
I can’t hide forever.
You said the same thing last week and you survived.
Did I?
Two week incubation period.
You are probably too optimistic but I love your scenario. You could be right. You might be right.
We will know the answer in a very few weeks, certainly by the end of April. Just look for a leveling off and decline in the infection and death RATES. The totals are interesting and scary but it is the rates that will tell the tale.
You can’t even remember your own posts! It was a huge screed about picking up your meds and how you were shaking in your boots. Man up!
What makes you think I don’t remember my post?
“Did I?” does not refer to what I posted last week,
It refers to your statement that I survived my trip to the store.
I could be a dead man walking right now from that very trip.
That’s what it means.
LOL....if I’m cooped up for 3 months, I’ll have more to worry about then venturing outside. My husband will have dragged my whiney, cabin-fever a$$ outside long before that. He possibly had a worried look on his face when he left for work this morning and saw I was intently watching Little House on the Prairie....a show which was never on in our house even when the children were little! (We were a Waltons kind of fam). Day Whatever of Quarantine and I have that on already? Pretty sure he is liquor store bound after work. Come to think of it, he HAS called more than usual this morning to check on me. Hmmmmmmm. To be fair..this is Day One for me not going to work because of the knee, not the virus...so I don’t know which is affecting me more. ;)
God, Felix Ungar lives.
Hahaha!
I can honestly say that I did not expect to spend even one second of The Apocalypse thinking about The Odd Couple, but it just literally happened.
Thanks for the smile <3
Little House was always kind of meh, but you know what really sticks in my mind from another world ago? “Good night, John Boy”.
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