Mortality Rate of Coronavirus in US Slips to 1.25% in KNOWN CASES – Far Below Fraudulent Number by WHO — Looks Like HUGE MISCALCULATION

Domi Good ^ | 3/20/20 | Staff

[gas_dr]

And what’s with the angry attacks. You and your brethren seem particularly aggressive today?

[freedomlover]

Ventilators are the new Body Bags

[gas_dr]

The end of April?
The virus will have run its course
The sun will be shining
Spring will be coming to the north lands
Two months in South Korea
Two months in China
Seems to have a shelf life of 8-10 weeks

[Jack Black]

I thought this was a nice visualization of major pandemics across the ages by the guys at Visual Capitalist that would be of interest to flubros, qbros, and doomers alike.

[tatown]

More testing picks up a higher percentage of mild cases, thus the mortality rate declines. During the initial stages primarily the very sick are limited to testing.

The mortality rate would/will decline much further when sero testing is done. This will include those that either already had the disease or were asymptomatic (which has been shown to be the vast majority). Bottom line the true mortality rate is vastly lower that what has been published. You won’t hear this on the ‘news’ because it kills their fear-porn.

[tatown]

Their hopes for Armageddon are fading.

[Its All Over Except ...]

Brit Hume provide that 4.06% and it has dropped to 1.25% in less than a month.

[semantic]

Under the existing growth rates, the US is projected to hit 1,141 CV related deaths by 3/31. You don't have to be a weatherman to tell which way the wind is blowing.

That's why Trump sent out his tweet last night - it's important for him to get ahead of the "overreaction" story. Rather, Trump needs to set the narrative that the numbers are more modest due to aggressive and decisive action taken by him early in the outbreak.

		Italy	60.5				USA	330.4	
Day	Date	Total	% Chg	Daily	Differential	Date	Total	% Chg	Daily
									
1	2/21/2020	1		1	1.0	2/29/2020	1		1
2	2/22/2020	2	100.0%	1	1.0	3/1/2020	2	100.0%	1
3	2/23/2020	3	50.0%	1	0.5	3/2/2020	6	200.0%	4
4	2/24/2020	7	133.3%	4	0.8	3/3/2020	9	50.0%	3
5	2/25/2020	10	42.9%	3	0.8	3/4/2020	12	33.3%	3
6	2/26/2020	12	20.0%	2	0.9	3/5/2020	14	16.7%	2
7	2/27/2020	17	41.7%	5	0.9	3/6/2020	18	28.6%	4
8	2/28/2020	21	23.5%	4	1.1	3/7/2020	19	5.6%	1
9	2/29/2020	29	38.1%	8	1.3	3/8/2020	22	15.8%	3
10	3/1/2020	34	17.2%	5	1.3	3/9/2020	26	18.2%	4
11	3/2/2020	52	52.9%	18	1.7	3/10/2020	31	19.2%	5
12	3/3/2020	79	51.9%	27	2.1	3/11/2020	38	22.6%	7
13	3/4/2020	107	35.4%	28	2.5	3/12/2020	42	10.5%	4
14	3/5/2020	148	38.3%	41	3.0	3/13/2020	49	16.7%	7
15	3/6/2020	197	33.1%	49	3.5	3/14/2020	56	14.3%	7
16	3/7/2020	233	18.3%	36	3.8	3/15/2020	62	10.7%	6
17	3/8/2020	366	57.1%	133	4.9	3/16/2020	75	21.0%	13
18	3/9/2020	463	26.5%	97	4.8	3/17/2020	96	28.0%	21
19	3/10/2020	631	36.3%	168	5.2	3/18/2020	122	27.1%	26
20	3/11/2020	827	31.1%	196	4.8	3/19/2020	174	42.6%	52
21	3/12/2020	1,027	24.2%	200	4.5	3/20/2020	229	31.6%	55
22	3/13/2020	1,266	23.3%	239	4.3	3/21/2020	294	28.4%	65
23	3/14/2020	1,441	13.8%	175	3.6	3/22/2020	400	36.1%	106
24	3/15/2020	1,809	25.5%	368	4.0	3/23/2020	456	14.0%	56
25	3/16/2020	2,158	19.3%	349	4.2	3/24/2020	520	14.0%	64
26	3/17/2020	2,503	16.0%	345	4.2	3/25/2020	593	14.0%	73
27	3/18/2020	2,978	19.0%	475	4.4	3/26/2020	676	14.0%	83
28	3/19/2020	3,405	14.3%	427	4.4	3/27/2020	770	14.0%	95
29	3/20/2020	4,032	18.4%	627	4.6	3/28/2020	878	14.0%	108
30	3/21/2020	4,825	19.7%	793	4.8	3/29/2020	1,001	14.0%	123
31	3/22/2020	5,476	13.5%	651	4.8	3/30/2020	1,141	14.0%	140
									
	Population differential				5.5				
	Gross differential				23.5				
									
Growth rate									
23	Days		37.19%					29.76%	
31	Days		32.01%					25.49%	
									
Sources									
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_States									
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Italy									

PS "Cases" is a made up term that has no statistical relevance. It doesn't actually measure new infections, rather just those testing positive - true or false. In other words, it's a function of ramped up testing, not ramped up disease. It's why the MSM is using in order to continue pushing their narrative. Follow fatalities - the tape tells the tale.

PPS Once again I need to state that these models are freely available for anyone. Just send me a PM and you can alter, modify, and model anything you wish to project/test data, assumptions, etc.

[going hot]

But the hockey stick, the hockey stick.

Exponential, exponential, ahhhhh!

[going hot]

So, Dr. Lawler's predictions and subsequent seminar stating 500,000 deaths is utter bullshit?

Who knew?

[lepton]

Mortality rate is normally counted at the end of the outbreak. During the outbreak - especially the left side of the parabola - the numbers are dominated by rate of spread regardless of the actual proportion who eventually die from the disease.

Here is an extreme example of how the numbers go off-kilter when you compare deaths/cases when there is a delay before people die:

If you were to replace “Coronavirus” with “Ricin”, and inject 100 people with a dose which would kill 100% in a week, then every day double the number of people you give the injection, using the deaths/cases method, after one week you would have a fatality/injection ratio of 0.787% (100/12,700), for a 100% fatal toxin. After two weeks it has dropped a little more, to 0.781%, and it continues to drop trivially. Taken this way, and used in the same way that has often been used on these pages and in the media, it would imply a 99.2% survival rate, which is simply not so.

It was plain to me in looking at the numbers, but I’m hardly the first to conclude this:

https://academic.oup.com/aje/article/162/5/479/82647

They way they get around this is by using cohort studies, accompanied by random sampling to ascertain the proportion of unreported additional cases.

Since the time before death or recovery is so long, few cohort studies have been completed, and fewer of those actually have all members resolved by the end-date of the study.

[InterceptPoint]

The virus will have run its course
+++++
I really do hope you are correct. But you might consider tracking the “progress” they are making in Italy as well as South Korea.

Go to the Wikipedia article for South Korea. Look at the rates of infection over the last 2 months.

What you will see is that South Korea is the superstar of Coronavirus Infection Prevention. They are doing something to earn that status. We have not been even close to achieving South Korean infection rates. We run 20% - 40% or more. The South Koreans are well below 10% and have really never been as high as we are experiencing in the U.S.

The Italian comparison may be unfair but I’m afraid that is also the case for South Korea.

[Celtic Conservative]

I did it for 24 years in corrections. Vaya con Dios.

CC

[lepton]

Talk to anyone you know, and you’ll find there were VERY high rates of a “flu” type bug from mid-Dec on until Jan 17 when they first admitted to the China Flu.

---

Yes, there are many examples on FR. My spouse and I had them as well. That said, they are clearly not the Wuhan Coronavirus, else the disease would have been identified independent of China - especially in such large numbers and with how distinctly this shows up on chest x-rays and CT-scans. By no means would everyone have had such a scan, but enough would have for radiologists to have noticed the pattern.

We’ll see though, if the serum tests are deployed before the population is hopelessly contaminated.

[wildcard_redneck]

“ ecause if I go outside, and this happens to me, and your article with numbers in it did not protect me, I’m going to be angry.”

I can only hope that your post was you’ joking. Otherwise, how fragile!

[gas_dr]

I would encourage you to look at the three threads that I have posted using validated data regarding trends. These are my data driven opinions. I am not just pulling numbers out of my rectum.

[semantic]

It's easy to (re)create any set of graph results you want - ranging from "hair on fire!", "OK same old same old", to "yawn, that's it?", based on differing assumptions.

Here's an example of different mortality projections over a 90 day period starting from the first recorded US covid death (2/28 - 5/28). Depending on different growth rate assumptions, the low range is 50k, middle is 500k (10x low), high is 3.3m (1% US pop):

I hope people realize you can literally project/estimate anything you want to set/support an agenda/narrative. That's why the most prescient observation was made by wastoute, who suggested just focusing on actual reported deaths.

With actual hard data, we can look back at actual growth rates, (hopefully) make reasonable assumptions out the next 7 days. (Or, even better, compare potential future to other countries 7-10 days ahead of US). After that, all we can really do is wait, watch and anticipate when the eventual peak/plateau is hit.

PS Again, send me a PM and I can send you a link to the different models if you want to play, test, etc.

[wastoute]

I sent Nathan Bedford the graph I shared with you yesterday. I hope he can figure out how to post it soon because it answers so many questions.

[Vermont Lt]

On a normal day, with elective surgeries we would never be blow 85%. The ICU, in our case 36 beds, night have 4 or five available rooms.

During the peak flu season (Dec 15 through Mar 15)..we would have 10-15 people in the ER waiting for admission. Average wait time was less than a day, but at peak, peak...it could go 36 hours.

What is happening in our area right now is clearing out elective surgery and moving “rehab” folk (broken hips, knees, etc) to their rehabs—dismissing the 3 day qualified stay for Medicare. That is going to open beds.

In the hospital I was at last night (my wife needed emergency surgery) the ER was empty...but they were opening another “floor” of a wing for COvid people. This was in addition to the ICU floor, the Telemetry floor that had been converted to ICU. The “new” floor will not be for intubated patients.

I asked the ER nurse what she thought. At first, she said, she was dismissive—she thought the surge planning wasn’t realistic. Then she started seeing the vented people start to flow through. At this stage, they just go right up to the isolation floors.

So, the surge is happening, but there is room. There is not ICU room—or staff. If you break a leg, there were many rooms no waiting.

No visitors. I was granted a “compassionate” ability to visit, but once she left the ER, I was booted. She can have no visitors. I will see her next when she is discharged. Leaving her last night was a very odd feeling. Not scary or panic...but this hospital is where she was for two weeks in August, and I was practically with her everywhere but the OR.

So, in context...the larger city hospitals are ready. But they are already maxed out in the ICU. So, they will overflow with a few hundred more patients.

[lepton]

Bottom line the true mortality rate is vastly lower that what has been published.

---

Someone posted to me an interesting study of the cases in China, which suggested that by about Feb 8th the number of unknown cases was likely to be about 35% of the total cases (an increase of about 54% from known cases). If that holds true here (and the evidence until the beginning of last week suggests it was lower than that), it does still affect the numbers, but not “vastly”.

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/03/13/science.abb3221