Posted on 01/02/2020 5:19:04 PM PST by Godzilla
Threat Matrix 2020
Established in 2001 after the 9/11 attack on America, this thread is designed to identify threats to America, both internal and external, and evaluate the probability of those threats occurring and the extent of potential damage. Discussions may stray into ‘tinfoil’ territory, but the goal is to peel back and confirm information so we can make founded decisions and actions.
Sorry, been a very busy weekend for me, but still looking at things
Wuhan Virus -
See FR threads on the virus for other issues. Below are the news items that grab my attention.
Over the weekend, the start of voluntary to involuntary confinements/quarantines began. The NIH issued a warning that by summer the epidemic could involve millions in America. Lockdown responses observed in many locations around the world are not to be ruled out here. Both are driving the chicken little MSM to new hights of hyperbole. Take a deep breath, look at the facts, the direct impact and the rising secondary/tertiary impacts. Plan accordingly
Turkey/Greece/Bulgaria Refugees -
Border areas are still tense as Turkey tries to force thousands of refugees - mostly from Syria - into Greece/Bulgaria as pathways into the rest of Europe. Greece and Bulgaria have reinforced their border with military and in some instances repelled groups with lethal force. In Greece border areas, vigilante groups are targeting NGOs who are there to assist any refugees that manage to get into the country. Turkey, OTOH, is using its military to prevent repelled refugees from entering back into Turkey, creating essentially a no man’s land between the countries.
Saudi Arabia -
Four members of the royal family are reported to have been arrested on charges of plotting a coup.
Taliban -
Apparently true to form, the Taliban are intending to ignore the ‘peace’ treaty and continue their warring ways. If the Afghani’s want their country, they better stand up now.
N Korea -
Kim fired off another three to four short range ballistic missiles.
CW2 -
Following article regarding the National Lawyers Guild and its efforts supporting Antifa across the country is a good read to understand that organization for violence has become more organized and that has emboldened Antifa across the country.
https://amgreatness.com/2020/03/08/antifas-most-important-enabler-its-legal-arm/
Oil War -
This is the kind of Black Swan Event that we don’t need right now. Over the weekend Saudi Arabia and Russia essentially went to war over oil pricing and production. Russia refused to join in production caps endorsed by OPEC to keep prices high. Oil prices dropped something in the range of 30% overnight and triggered a massive stock sell off globally. In the US, trading was stopped for a period as circuit breakers were hit. Been a long time since that happened.
Fallout is that all oil producers will be hurt. Russia’s economy already crippled by low oil prices will be doubly hit. In the US, the drastic drop in oil prices will hit the fracking community in a major way and may cause some medium size companies to go bankrupt if the oil war lasts too long. US oil has been a critical part of the fuel that has lead to the economic recovery under Trump. Normally, low oil prices assist companies by reducing their energy costs, but in the present circumstances, it may be insufficient to overcome corona virus concerns/impacts. Expect a very rough ride in the stock market again this week.
Wuhan Virus -
See FR threads on the virus for other issues. Below are the news items that grab my attention.
Italy extended lock down to entire country. Israel mandatory 14 day quarantine for all arrivals (note this will mess up Purim and Easter pilgrimages).
BBC reports that 36 Iranians died from alcohol poisoning believing that drinking alcohol would prevent the corona virus infection. . . . . True numbers from Iran are still very suspect.
China is playing up the victim card in its denial of being the source of the corona virus and are demanding formal apologies from countries around the world. Some Chinese party mouthpieces have obliquely suggested that China may stop all shipments of medical supplies to the US in retaliation. They clearly see just how far down our pants have dropped in regards to reliance on ‘cheap’ Chinese products and labor. China also is reporting less than 200 new cases, down from a peak of 4000. On the economic side, China is claiming industrial production back to 80%, though insiders see it more like 40-50%. This still places things at a 4-week or so recovery delay to the global supply chain.
In spite of the democrat stated urgency of the epidemic - Nancy Pelosi and the house drags its feet in responding legislatively to the situation - except to issue rhetoric. Meanwhile, several conservative legislators have self quarantined themselves after contact with an infected individual at a recent convention. Throughout the nation, preparations are being made for school closures, event cancellations, business slow down and teleworking workarounds to quarantines/lock-downs. Sheeple have conducted their second wave of panic buying (first wave - hand sanitizers and masks) water and toilet paper. Some pundents bemoan the ‘hoarding’ of TP. I bemoan the fact that people didn’t have a little extra set aside already. British grocery stores are warning of food riots and should things get out of control here that will be the next wave of panic buying here. Stock up now for at least two week, better stock up for a month.
Saudi Arabia -
SA is beginning trials of 68 Hamas members/supporters arrested in 2019 over attempts to channel funds to the Hamas. Hamas is not supported by SA in the current peace imitative.
Israel -
In spite of gaining in the most recent election, Netanyahu is having difficulties forming a government, possibly resulting in a further unprecedented 4th national election.
Afghanistan -
Troop draw down began in spite of evidence that the Taliban will not keep their end of the bargain for peace.
Iran -
It is reported that Ali Shamkhani, the Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council of Iran is now the man to try to control the Iraq’s politics for Iran. Such operations have been chaotic since the death of Soleimani, increased Iraqi civil unrest and now the rampant corona virus that has killed several senior Iranian leaders. He met with many Iraqi shia militia leaders as well as Hezbollah and Hamas leaders during a recent trip to Baghdad. One of the major goals is still the removal of US forces from the region and the establishment of a land bridge thru Iraq into Syria in order to build up supplies/weapons for an attack on Israel.
Oil War -
Markets stabilized after the combined corona virus - oil war one-two punch. Critical for the US because shale oil costs about $50/barrel to produce while global costs are around $30. In 2015-2016 low prices caused the layoff of 200,000. This has the potential to seriously harm the US economy in the short term.
Russia is in even a more precarious position with much of its economy heavily dependent on oil sales - an extended oil war could seriously damage its economy even further.
good report
thanx
Wuhan Virus -
See FR threads on the virus for other issues. Below are the news items that grab my attention.
The US has surpassed 1000 infections since the first community infection (excluding those brought in from out of country) was reported Jan 21st in Washington State. Feb 26 - 15 cases; Mar 4 - 111 cases and today 1000+ cases. The numbers are indicating that the number infected is likely to be doubling every 4-5 days. Some analysts are indicating that based on the growth of the number of infections that the US is where Italy was 11 - 14 days ago.
Most of the infections are concentrated on the west coast, where the concentration of homeless is also the largest in the country. Once the virus penetrates into that community it will likely spread like wild fire with a high death rate (most have compromised health issues) and with it into the down town workers (homeless coughing and sneezing on everything, spreading to others). This is also putting strain on shelters - having to increase personal space and volunteer worker safety measures.
Iran freed 70,000 prisoners to try to prevent the spread of the virus in the prison system. No Americans were freed however. Iran is the worst hit country after China and Italy with grossly under reported numbers of infections and deaths.
China and S Korea have been reporting rapidly declining numbers of new infections. Both countries instituted harsh quarantines and other restrictions. This policy of containment appears to have worked. In the US and other countries containment has shifted to mitigation - that is accepting that there will be infections, but trying to protect those at highest risk of dying from the disease.
Turkey/Russia/Syria -
Erdogan and Putin managed to put together a cease fire in Idlib. Turkey warned that if the truce is broken it will retaliate.
Israel / Iran / Syria -
A field commander with the Quds Force of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Sayeda Zeinab, was assassinated near the Syrian capital, an Iranian semiofficial news agency and an opposition war monitor reported Saturday. No one has come forward and claimed responsibility, but many suspect Israel.
BREAKING
Iraq -
Estimated 30 rockets were launched within the hour towards Taji airbase hosting US forces. An abandoned cargo truck with launch tubes was found in Al-Rashidiyah area, northern Baghdad. No word on any causalities.
Iraq -
Three collation deaths and 12 wounded as a result of the rocket attack earlier today. US aircraft have been launching counter strikes on a wide variety of Iranian proxy militias in both Iraq and Syria. Some include
-Afghani Shia militia Liwa Fatemiyoun in Al-Hazm/Sak
-Iraqi Shia militia Khataib Hezbollah in Sina’ah
-Iraqi Shia militia Kata’ib Sayyid al-Shuhada Suwayiah and Badiya
-Iraqi Shia militia Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba In Albukamal, Syria
Scale of the operation within such a short time frame means we had darn good actionable intel.
Hole onto your hats, gonna get wild.
Wuhan Virus -
See FR threads on the virus for other issues. Below are the news items that grab my attention. We are entering uncharted waters as far as this pandemic goes. . . . . .
WHO announced global pandemic, causing markets to crash. President Trump announced financial support efforts and ban of travel from Europe (VP Pense notes the epicenter of the pandemic has shifted there). Overnight, the number of new cases increased by about 28%. Based on a daily reported cumulative number of new cases since the 100th case, the US has been following a 33% daily increase line. Analysts still noting that the US is about 13 - 16 days behind Italy’s trend line.
Health policy in many areas has shifted to mitigation from containment. Goal is to try to isolate the 60+ yr old group who are at highest risk of death from infection. Nursing facilities/rest homes are closing off visitations and interactions with the outside. BTW, I’ve gone to wearing gloves and mask on daily commute (light rail) as a precaution since I fall into the high risk category.
Economic issues dominate. Markets have fallen over 20% and some believe could lose as much as 30% in the days to come. Besides the markets, travel industry is being hammered. Between travel restrictions and fewer fliers, the number of flights have dropped by about 20%. Sports got hammered yesterday, with cancellation of the NBA season and the College March madness attendees restricted to family and very few other attendees. St Patrick’s day celebrations being cancelled all over (crying in the green beer). Panic buying now an epidemic of its own across the country, even in states with no reported infections. Businesses and governments looking to go to skeletal staffing and have employees telework as much as possible.
Black Swan -
Recommend keeping an eye on Deutsche Bank Stock. It is approaching 6.40 and some analysts indicate that there is no floor for it. This is the most vulnerable bank in Europe with trillions in bad debt. With the added economic pressures from the corono virus I have concerns that this bank could melt down, triggering a global melt down of the banking system.
US /Syria -
Wrap up of yesterday’s actions. On Wednesday (local) approximately 18 rockets hit Camp Taj, located 9 miles north of Baghdad. The source was a modified truck that had launching tubes and was abandoned. This has been the common practice in the past few attacks. Two Americans and one Brit were killed, 12 injured. The culprits are considered to be the Iranian backed PMU. Within hours, US aircraft struck Popular Mobilization camps in the al-Hassian area and the Imam Ali military base (Iranian built base). Reports of 25 killed in the air strike.
There are two aircraft carrier groups in the Middle east AO, USS Truman and the USS Eisenhower. These task forces have been in the area for several days and are not there in response to the recent attack on Camp Taj, but can add fire power if necessary.
Afghanistan -
Excellent background on the Taliban/Afghanistan scenario here:
https://www.strategypage.com/qnd/afghan/articles/20200312.aspx
CW2 -
SPLC and CAIR are working to pressure donor-advised funds (DAFs) to black list conservative and Christian organizations to “fight” hate and racism. They are tying this into the response they’ve gotten from big tech and some financial institutions to block/ban funding to these groups. In today’s realm of virtue signaling, these pressure tactics are becoming increasingly successful.
174 House Dems: Convicted Terrorists Must Not Be Barred from Working for TSA
Frontpage Mag ^ | 03/12/2020 | Robert Spencer
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3823983/posts
Dems pass bill to keep Trump from ordering travel bans during virus crisis
The Independent Sentinel ^ | 3-12-2020 | M.Dowling
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/3823892/posts
Big list of things on this Friday the 13th. . . .
Wuhan Virus -
See FR threads on the virus for other issues. Below are the news items that grab my attention. We are entering uncharted waters as far as this pandemic goes. . . . . .
Bubbling up yesterday are threats coming from China to the US that they may withhold medicines they produce. About 80% of the prescription drugs come from China. This could get ugly fast as China may see vulnerability as the US public starts panicking and the economy takes the biggest hits since 1997.
Rumors of the ‘elite’ heading off to their doomsday bunker/bug out locations. These ‘bunkers’ have been discussed over the past couple years within the prepper community. Some of the ‘elites’ haven’t been fast enough as many are now turning up positive for the virus.
Yesterday much of America essentially shut down from sporting events to Broadway to the magical kingdom. On top of this some of the first big runs on groceries began. In NYC, stores were cleared out in hours after the mayor declared a state of emergency. Rumors of rushes on grocery stores coming from the Atlanta area with folks going from the metro area into outlying smaller towns and buying them out as well. If you haven’t gotten your food supplies built up NOW is the time to get at least 2 weeks supply. Some health care experts yesterday estimated that between 70 - 150 million Americans could become infected before this pandemic plays out. At the low end, this could mean 700,000 fatalities at current mortality rates.
For good news, the first studies to examine the virus’ longevity in the summer climate suggests that summer will work against the virus, but likely have it show up again during the standard ‘flu’ season in the fall.
https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/03/temperature-and-the-coronavirus.php
WaPo reporting that Iran has mass grave sites visible from orbit. I saw this in twitter feeds yesterday but was skeptical and didn’t find any collaborative evidence. Now more info has come out and if this is true, the deaths from the virus are substantially higher than the Iranian regime has admitted.
Pelosi got called out yesterday for trying to include, among other things, what would essentially be a slush fund for abortions tucked into a corona virus funding bill. Along those same lines, house democrats withdrew from the calendar a vote on the President’s travel restrictions. CAIR and other groups are complaining loudly, but it was evident that the Presidential authority granted him the ability to respond with entry denials from China when the epidemic began to explode there. Public opinion is strong towards travel restrictions from impacted area overseas and the president’s correctness in applying restrictions.
Things got worse for Italy as their chief medical officer, Roberto Stella, succumbed to the virus yesterday. Some analysts see the number of new virus cases doubling on an average of every 3 days.
Monkeys ‘gangs’ are fighting for food in Thailand after tourist food stops due to travel restrictions from the corona virus pandemic.
Black Swan -
Recommend keeping an eye on Deutsche Bank Stock. It is Lehman brothers on steroids and red bull. DB was designated by the IMF as the “most systemically dangerous bank” in the world back in 2016. Given Europe’s to date poor response to the pandemic, economic repercussions will continue and could potentially cause DB to implode. Because it holds so much debt from European countries, if it goes it will drag the European banking system down with it and likely trigger a global banking crisis. Yesterday, DB tried assure employees and investors over its ability to weather the coronavirus as shares in the German lender hit a new low on Thursday amid a wider stock market sell-off.
US /Iraq -
The US launched a second series of airstrikes yesterday afternoon. The strike hit several bases used by Kata’eb Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed militia that fired the 30-rocket attack on Wednesday at the Taji base. It targeted five weapons storage facilities. Videos of the attack posted on twitter showed abundant secondary explosions.
Turkey/Syria -
Buried in all the corona virus news is a summary of the results of Turkey’s offensive in Idlib. In addition to recapturing territory initially lost to pro-assad forces, they were successful in cutting off the strategic M5 highway that was captured early on by Syria. In the process, Syria lost a lot of military hardware. Spearheading the Turkish assault were UAVs and heavy artillery. This was the first time Turkey used UAVs against Syria and the tactic was effective. At the same time, Russian military activity dropped off, so much so that the pro-Iranian media was charging that they were being abandoned. Currently the ceasefire is holding in the region.
RUMINT RUMINT RUMINT
Syria -
Reports of UAV/Drones are attacking US forces in the country. Trying to confirm, but the Presidents speech is drowning out all the bandwidth.
Notes of the day
Wuhan virus -
See the many FR threads but these actions caught my attention-
Food run is on across the country. Fueled by the national emergency declaration stores saw crowds descend to buy out products. Locally cases of flat out panic buying. Expect increased panic buying as people’s realize stores are lacking products. This is the third wave of buying I warned about.
Iraq -
In a bold daylight attack, overnight Iranian backed proxy groups launched about 33 Iranian made fajir-1 107mm rockets at camp taj. Quick security force response stopped a second volley with 33 captured rockets. Initial reports of 5 injured, one serious. Previous attacks have been at night.
Israel/hezebollah-
reports are coming out that Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah has been put in quarantine after meeting with Iranian military officials who may have the coronavirus. Distain of protective measures by Iranian Shia has created a massive loss of life in Iran. Numerous leaders are infected and have died.
Wonderful news!
I’m not a mormon, but I grew up in the culture in Utah. My family is good for six months of food. It’d be nice to be able to run down to Costco and pick up some ribs for the grill today, but no ... this shit is bonkers.
Hope people calm down soon. I looked for a thermometer on amazon. They have baby rectile and dog ear models. Expected delerivy for adult humans is May. LOL.
Anyway, thanks for your daily updates!
“Dems pass bill to keep Trump from ordering travel bans during virus crisis”
Thanks, LucyT and all TM posters
Another for the List of Grievances against one political party in this great republic and the reason for a bloodless separation.
READY-AIM-VOTE-REPUBLICAN
That, whenever any form of government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the right of the people to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new government, laying its foundation on such principles, and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their safety and happiness. - Declaration
We can deal with the rest in subsequent elections.
I’ve been prepping since about 2010. No need to run to the stores but did anyway looking to see for myself what was selling out and what was left. Remarkable every store sell outs - meats,sugar, pasta, rice, instant potatoes, children’s Tylenol, eggs. Got what I needed for st Patrick’s day ,
Economic fallout from the Corona virus is swamping the news waves. Here is what I’ve been able to glean.
Wuhan Virus -
See FR threads on the virus for other issues. Below are the news items that grab my attention. We are entering uncharted waters as far as this pandemic goes. . . . . .
Sweeping business shutdown/limitations by states and cities across the nation following three days of shopping chaos. CDC has endorsed an 8 week period of ‘social distancing’ and closure of businesses/events >50 persons. The economic battering ram aspect to the corona virus is hitting full stride. All these focus on crashing the DOW further. Crude oil and precious metals prices dropping like a rock as well (start looking for good deals on physical metal).
The corona virus fears seem to have impacted some of the global hotspots. No one on the streets of Beirut for example, Iran still bucking under its massive plague, etc. Even ISIS has told its terrorists to stay out of Europe due to the virus.
Black Swan -
Recommend keeping an eye on Deutsche Bank Stock. It is Lehman brothers on steroids and red bull. DB was designated by the IMF as the “most systemically dangerous bank” in the world back in 2016.
Syria -
There are reports surfacing that Syria has restarted their chemical weapons program. This is based on analysis of an Israeli attack on targets in central Syria believed to have been a chemical-weapons production facility.
Wuhan Virus -
While the world waits with baited breath on the health status of Tom Hanks and other ‘celebrities’, here is what is grabbing my attention today. We are entering uncharted waters as far as this pandemic goes. . . . . .
Increasingly strict measures being put in place across the country to limit persons to their homes. The White House denies any nation wide lock down is immanent . Leftist government leaders taking the opportunity thru emergency declarations to attack constitutional rights with rules that have nothing to do with the containment/treatment of the infection. Short and long term economic impacts of these measures are hitting hard. Small businesses that rely upon people coming to their establishments such as bars, restaurants, entertainment, etc. are closing for good across the country. Larger businesses are buckling under the strains and many could significantly fold if the current levels of social distancing are maintained thru the summer (worst case scenario). It may take years for some sectors to return to previous levels.
West coast areas are finally becoming increasingly aware of the potential wildfire effects of the virus if it gains a foot hold in the homeless community. One thing I think they are missing - what happens with all these lock downs closing the shelters, homeless feeding, and other social services? Will this cause a spike in crime by the homeless? The San Fran Bay area counties have declared curfews/lock downs - how will that be enforced on the homeless?
New York and surrounding areas are seeing increases in banking withdrawals that are causing cash shortages for banks. Watching to see if this is the next wave of panic to sweep the country.
Good news, clinical tests of potential anti-viral drugs/immunizations are being conducted. Older medicines also showing potential. As long as the red tape can be kept out of the process things will advance. However, large scale immunizations are still months away.
Black Swan -
Recommend keeping an eye on Deuteches Bank Stock. It is Lehman brothers on steroids and red bull. DB was designated by the IMF as the “most systemically dangerous bank” in the world back in 2016. It carries MUCH of the EU’s bad debt. So far DB stocks are hanging on, but any unexpected shudder from other market forces could force it over the brink.
Iran -
Yes, this is corona virus stuff, but better related to here. Ali Akbar Velayati, a top adviser to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has been infected with the corona virus and is now in isolation, according to reports in Iran’s state-controlled press outlets. Velayati is one of many top Iranian officials to contract the virus since it began spreading across Iran. Ayatollah Hashem Bathaei, 78, is another of several senior Iranian officials to have been infected. Several Iranian officials have already died as a result of the illness. The Mashhad’s Imam Reza shrine and Qom’s Fatima Masumeh shrine were ‘temporaily’ closed until crowds forced them back open. It is these shrines that faithful kiss/lick the shrine - actions thought to have accelerated the spread of the corona virus. Roughly nine out of 10 of the over 17,000 cases of the new virus confirmed across the Middle East come from Iran.
Responding to the recent rocket attacks on Americans at Camp Taj, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo warned Iraq’s prime minister that the United States would take measures in self-defense if attacked. So far the actions have focused on Iranian backed militia who are believed to be the actual attackers. Linkage of Iran to these militas will keep the pressure on the Iranian leadership currently fighting corona virus, crushing economic conditions and civil unrest.
Iraq -
Over night, 2 rockets hit Besmaya base in Iraq, home to a Spanish contingent apart of Op Inherent Resolve along with NATO troops. Iraqi government reports do not mention casualties. Developing
Israel -
Gantz received a four-week mandate from Rivlin to form a government. It was the second time Gantz received the mandate after he failed to form a government after the September election. His party representatives are attempting to negotiate with Netanyahu’s Lakud to form a government. This is contrary to the increased support Lakud and its allies received from the last election. Chances are a fourth election is in the offing.
Oil Price War -
Russian is taking it on the chin in its price war with Saudi Arabia. The Russian economy is heavily dependent on revenues from the country’s vast energy resources. Sanctions, lower prices due to the corona virus and increasing production from the US has really put the squeeze to it. Saudis enjoy low oil production costs of around $6-7 a barrel, they are able to cope with lower oil prices, while countries like Russia, which have much higher extraction costs, need global prices to be at least $50 a barrel to make a profit. This BTW is why our oil industry is being hit hard as well
CW2 -
Some elements of Antifa are encouraging members to storm supermarkets and en mass steal supplies/food.
Most of the homeless I’ve known (and I’ve know a lot, long story, the details of which were endless entertainment on the old FReoples threads) got a goodly portion of their food from the dumpsters in back of restaurants. Shut down the restaurants and...
Yep, that too.
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