Economic fallout from the Corona virus is swamping the news waves. Here is what I’ve been able to glean.
Wuhan Virus -
See FR threads on the virus for other issues. Below are the news items that grab my attention. We are entering uncharted waters as far as this pandemic goes. . . . . .
Sweeping business shutdown/limitations by states and cities across the nation following three days of shopping chaos. CDC has endorsed an 8 week period of ‘social distancing’ and closure of businesses/events >50 persons. The economic battering ram aspect to the corona virus is hitting full stride. All these focus on crashing the DOW further. Crude oil and precious metals prices dropping like a rock as well (start looking for good deals on physical metal).
The corona virus fears seem to have impacted some of the global hotspots. No one on the streets of Beirut for example, Iran still bucking under its massive plague, etc. Even ISIS has told its terrorists to stay out of Europe due to the virus.
Black Swan -
Recommend keeping an eye on Deutsche Bank Stock. It is Lehman brothers on steroids and red bull. DB was designated by the IMF as the “most systemically dangerous bank” in the world back in 2016.
Syria -
There are reports surfacing that Syria has restarted their chemical weapons program. This is based on analysis of an Israeli attack on targets in central Syria believed to have been a chemical-weapons production facility.
Wuhan Virus -
While the world waits with baited breath on the health status of Tom Hanks and other ‘celebrities’, here is what is grabbing my attention today. We are entering uncharted waters as far as this pandemic goes. . . . . .
Increasingly strict measures being put in place across the country to limit persons to their homes. The White House denies any nation wide lock down is immanent . Leftist government leaders taking the opportunity thru emergency declarations to attack constitutional rights with rules that have nothing to do with the containment/treatment of the infection. Short and long term economic impacts of these measures are hitting hard. Small businesses that rely upon people coming to their establishments such as bars, restaurants, entertainment, etc. are closing for good across the country. Larger businesses are buckling under the strains and many could significantly fold if the current levels of social distancing are maintained thru the summer (worst case scenario). It may take years for some sectors to return to previous levels.
West coast areas are finally becoming increasingly aware of the potential wildfire effects of the virus if it gains a foot hold in the homeless community. One thing I think they are missing - what happens with all these lock downs closing the shelters, homeless feeding, and other social services? Will this cause a spike in crime by the homeless? The San Fran Bay area counties have declared curfews/lock downs - how will that be enforced on the homeless?
New York and surrounding areas are seeing increases in banking withdrawals that are causing cash shortages for banks. Watching to see if this is the next wave of panic to sweep the country.
Good news, clinical tests of potential anti-viral drugs/immunizations are being conducted. Older medicines also showing potential. As long as the red tape can be kept out of the process things will advance. However, large scale immunizations are still months away.
Black Swan -
Recommend keeping an eye on Deuteches Bank Stock. It is Lehman brothers on steroids and red bull. DB was designated by the IMF as the “most systemically dangerous bank” in the world back in 2016. It carries MUCH of the EU’s bad debt. So far DB stocks are hanging on, but any unexpected shudder from other market forces could force it over the brink.
Iran -
Yes, this is corona virus stuff, but better related to here. Ali Akbar Velayati, a top adviser to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has been infected with the corona virus and is now in isolation, according to reports in Iran’s state-controlled press outlets. Velayati is one of many top Iranian officials to contract the virus since it began spreading across Iran. Ayatollah Hashem Bathaei, 78, is another of several senior Iranian officials to have been infected. Several Iranian officials have already died as a result of the illness. The Mashhad’s Imam Reza shrine and Qom’s Fatima Masumeh shrine were ‘temporaily’ closed until crowds forced them back open. It is these shrines that faithful kiss/lick the shrine - actions thought to have accelerated the spread of the corona virus. Roughly nine out of 10 of the over 17,000 cases of the new virus confirmed across the Middle East come from Iran.
Responding to the recent rocket attacks on Americans at Camp Taj, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo warned Iraq’s prime minister that the United States would take measures in self-defense if attacked. So far the actions have focused on Iranian backed militia who are believed to be the actual attackers. Linkage of Iran to these militas will keep the pressure on the Iranian leadership currently fighting corona virus, crushing economic conditions and civil unrest.
Iraq -
Over night, 2 rockets hit Besmaya base in Iraq, home to a Spanish contingent apart of Op Inherent Resolve along with NATO troops. Iraqi government reports do not mention casualties. Developing
Israel -
Gantz received a four-week mandate from Rivlin to form a government. It was the second time Gantz received the mandate after he failed to form a government after the September election. His party representatives are attempting to negotiate with Netanyahu’s Lakud to form a government. This is contrary to the increased support Lakud and its allies received from the last election. Chances are a fourth election is in the offing.
Oil Price War -
Russian is taking it on the chin in its price war with Saudi Arabia. The Russian economy is heavily dependent on revenues from the country’s vast energy resources. Sanctions, lower prices due to the corona virus and increasing production from the US has really put the squeeze to it. Saudis enjoy low oil production costs of around $6-7 a barrel, they are able to cope with lower oil prices, while countries like Russia, which have much higher extraction costs, need global prices to be at least $50 a barrel to make a profit. This BTW is why our oil industry is being hit hard as well
CW2 -
Some elements of Antifa are encouraging members to storm supermarkets and en mass steal supplies/food.