Sorry, been a very busy weekend for me, but still looking at things
Wuhan Virus -
See FR threads on the virus for other issues. Below are the news items that grab my attention.
Over the weekend, the start of voluntary to involuntary confinements/quarantines began. The NIH issued a warning that by summer the epidemic could involve millions in America. Lockdown responses observed in many locations around the world are not to be ruled out here. Both are driving the chicken little MSM to new hights of hyperbole. Take a deep breath, look at the facts, the direct impact and the rising secondary/tertiary impacts. Plan accordingly
Turkey/Greece/Bulgaria Refugees -
Border areas are still tense as Turkey tries to force thousands of refugees - mostly from Syria - into Greece/Bulgaria as pathways into the rest of Europe. Greece and Bulgaria have reinforced their border with military and in some instances repelled groups with lethal force. In Greece border areas, vigilante groups are targeting NGOs who are there to assist any refugees that manage to get into the country. Turkey, OTOH, is using its military to prevent repelled refugees from entering back into Turkey, creating essentially a no man’s land between the countries.
Saudi Arabia -
Four members of the royal family are reported to have been arrested on charges of plotting a coup.
Taliban -
Apparently true to form, the Taliban are intending to ignore the ‘peace’ treaty and continue their warring ways. If the Afghani’s want their country, they better stand up now.
N Korea -
Kim fired off another three to four short range ballistic missiles.
CW2 -
Following article regarding the National Lawyers Guild and its efforts supporting Antifa across the country is a good read to understand that organization for violence has become more organized and that has emboldened Antifa across the country.
https://amgreatness.com/2020/03/08/antifas-most-important-enabler-its-legal-arm/
Oil War -
This is the kind of Black Swan Event that we don’t need right now. Over the weekend Saudi Arabia and Russia essentially went to war over oil pricing and production. Russia refused to join in production caps endorsed by OPEC to keep prices high. Oil prices dropped something in the range of 30% overnight and triggered a massive stock sell off globally. In the US, trading was stopped for a period as circuit breakers were hit. Been a long time since that happened.
Fallout is that all oil producers will be hurt. Russia’s economy already crippled by low oil prices will be doubly hit. In the US, the drastic drop in oil prices will hit the fracking community in a major way and may cause some medium size companies to go bankrupt if the oil war lasts too long. US oil has been a critical part of the fuel that has lead to the economic recovery under Trump. Normally, low oil prices assist companies by reducing their energy costs, but in the present circumstances, it may be insufficient to overcome corona virus concerns/impacts. Expect a very rough ride in the stock market again this week.
Wuhan Virus -
See FR threads on the virus for other issues. Below are the news items that grab my attention.
Italy extended lock down to entire country. Israel mandatory 14 day quarantine for all arrivals (note this will mess up Purim and Easter pilgrimages).
BBC reports that 36 Iranians died from alcohol poisoning believing that drinking alcohol would prevent the corona virus infection. . . . . True numbers from Iran are still very suspect.
China is playing up the victim card in its denial of being the source of the corona virus and are demanding formal apologies from countries around the world. Some Chinese party mouthpieces have obliquely suggested that China may stop all shipments of medical supplies to the US in retaliation. They clearly see just how far down our pants have dropped in regards to reliance on ‘cheap’ Chinese products and labor. China also is reporting less than 200 new cases, down from a peak of 4000. On the economic side, China is claiming industrial production back to 80%, though insiders see it more like 40-50%. This still places things at a 4-week or so recovery delay to the global supply chain.
In spite of the democrat stated urgency of the epidemic - Nancy Pelosi and the house drags its feet in responding legislatively to the situation - except to issue rhetoric. Meanwhile, several conservative legislators have self quarantined themselves after contact with an infected individual at a recent convention. Throughout the nation, preparations are being made for school closures, event cancellations, business slow down and teleworking workarounds to quarantines/lock-downs. Sheeple have conducted their second wave of panic buying (first wave - hand sanitizers and masks) water and toilet paper. Some pundents bemoan the ‘hoarding’ of TP. I bemoan the fact that people didn’t have a little extra set aside already. British grocery stores are warning of food riots and should things get out of control here that will be the next wave of panic buying here. Stock up now for at least two week, better stock up for a month.
Saudi Arabia -
SA is beginning trials of 68 Hamas members/supporters arrested in 2019 over attempts to channel funds to the Hamas. Hamas is not supported by SA in the current peace imitative.
Israel -
In spite of gaining in the most recent election, Netanyahu is having difficulties forming a government, possibly resulting in a further unprecedented 4th national election.
Afghanistan -
Troop draw down began in spite of evidence that the Taliban will not keep their end of the bargain for peace.
Iran -
It is reported that Ali Shamkhani, the Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council of Iran is now the man to try to control the Iraq’s politics for Iran. Such operations have been chaotic since the death of Soleimani, increased Iraqi civil unrest and now the rampant corona virus that has killed several senior Iranian leaders. He met with many Iraqi shia militia leaders as well as Hezbollah and Hamas leaders during a recent trip to Baghdad. One of the major goals is still the removal of US forces from the region and the establishment of a land bridge thru Iraq into Syria in order to build up supplies/weapons for an attack on Israel.
Oil War -
Markets stabilized after the combined corona virus - oil war one-two punch. Critical for the US because shale oil costs about $50/barrel to produce while global costs are around $30. In 2015-2016 low prices caused the layoff of 200,000. This has the potential to seriously harm the US economy in the short term.
Russia is in even a more precarious position with much of its economy heavily dependent on oil sales - an extended oil war could seriously damage its economy even further.