Posted on 03/11/2019 2:51:56 PM PDT by Sopater
Sorry--there has not been enough time for that to have happened. The earth can be measured at only about 4.5 billion years, but how much of *that* time is taken up in cooling, forming raw chemicals, water, etc, to get anywhere close to being able to form an amino acid--much less a protein or a molecule?
People throw around numbers like billions and think that is plenty of time, when in reality it is not nearly enough time.
Well... Darwin proposed a grand theory based on very limited data.
Today the data available is orders of magnitude greater than in Darwin's day and remarkably well conforms to his basic theory.
I think all such math is based on faulty assumptions and is therefore G.I.G.O.
Why do you "think" that?
The earliest evidence found of possible life, or "pre-life" is dated as 4.3 billion years ago, only 300 million years after the earth formed and barely 100 million years after the first liquid water.
From 4 billion years ago increasing evidence of very primitive life with "the last universal common ancestor" (LUCA) of bacteria and archaea set around 3.5 billion years ago.
So already, after "just" a billion years the data shows both bacteria and archaea.
The "Cambrian Explosion" came 3 billion years later.
Some people claim this means life had to come from outer space -- panspermia.
Maybe... but so far there's no certain proof it could not have all happened right here.
The short answer is: baby steps, everything in baby steps.
Life at any level of complexity did not come together all at once in a sudden process requiring infinitesimal probabilities, but rather in an infinite number of highly probable interactions such that none by itself was especially noteworthy.
That's what the search for abiogenesis is all about -- what sequence of highly probable interactions could produce increasing organic complexities?
As of today nobody knows the full answer, but that's where they're looking.
And you know this how?
The protein discussed consists of string of 150 specific amino acids. There are 20 different types of amino acids and they each have to be the right one for the protein to be a protein. So imagine entering a lottery where they have to call out 150 numbers from 1-20 and each one has to be the right number or you loose.
So imagine entering a lottery where they have to call out 150 numbers from 1-20 and each one has to be the right number or you loose.
In chemistry, a trillion is a small number. A trillion to one chance is a trivial fraction.
I hope that is understandable.
There are 1.67 Sextillion molecules in a drop of water. About 5 Sextillion atoms in the same drop.
“Here is a fact: in over 150 years basic evolution theory has never been strongly falsified.”
Can you be more precise in what you term, “basic evolutionary theory”?
And I am not asking just to yank your chain... that term could mean totally different things to different people. What specifically are you referring to when you use the term?
What is a trillion compared to 1 with 164 zeros behind it? That is what people don't understand.
How does 10 to the 164th power compare to the number of atoms in the known universe? That is what evolution believers don't understand.
What does your number refer to?
What does your number refer to?
10 to the 164th is the probability of producing a protein.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W1_KEVaCyaA
Nifty video, I love the amoeba carrying an atom illustration.
“Carbon dating puts first modern humans at 300,000 years ago.”
Carbon dating is really not much good after 50,000 years.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Radiocarbon_dating
There are many other techniques:
Other methods include:
Samarium–neodymium dating method
Uranium–lead dating method
Potassium–argon dating method
Rubidium–strontium dating method
Uranium–thorium dating method
Fission track dating method
Chlorine-36 dating method
Luminescence dating methods
argon–argon (Ar–Ar)
iodine–xenon (I–Xe)
lanthanum–barium (La–Ba)
lead–lead (Pb–Pb)
lutetium–hafnium (Lu–Hf)
potassium–calcium (K–Ca)
rhenium–osmium (Re–Os)
uranium–lead–helium (U–Pb–He)
uranium–uranium (U–U)
krypton–krypton (Kr–Kr)
beryllium (10Be–9Be)[30]
If this stuff is all a lie then quantum mechanics doesn’t work, chemistry doesn’t work & how are we pounding this computer? Because its not here!
OK, so let's consider the other side of that equation.
The numbers of bacteria on earth today is estimated as five nonillion -- that's 5 X 10 to the 30th power.
Bacteria can multiply, let's say about once per hour or 10,000 times per year on average.
So, in a million years that's 10 billion multiplications.
In a billion years that's 10 trillion multiplications = 10 to the 12th power.
Multiply 10 trillion times 50 nonillion and we're up to 50 tredecillion or 5 times 10 to the 42nd power.
That's how many opportunities for useful mutations happen amongst bacteria over a billion years.
Of course, for abiogenesis life didn't begin as bacteria but with amino acids bumping into each other to form interesting combinations under many different conditions.
Combinations which lasted might react with others to form even more interesting and complex molecules -- decillions of times per year for hundreds of millions of years.
So Murphy's Law would seem to dictate that if a reaction is possible, it will eventually happen, regardless of the probabilities.
No, not a sudden appearance of highly complex life, but a slow accumulation of complexity among interesting organic molecules.
That's the proposal, anyway.
Not a problem, note my response in post #119 above to Peter Principle's same question.
I don't invent any terms or definitions, strictly go by the book which is summarized there.
That's a ludicrous "theoretical" number with no demonstrated relationship to the known world.
It is very convenient to start out with; a miracle happened and we have a bacterium, now just imagine that lots and lots of them are having babies and eventually one of their kids is a bit better than his parents etc etc etc and then we have man.
I have an analogy for a bacterium. Imagine you are in an NFL football stadium. Imagine said stadium is a complete oval spheroid rather than mostly flat and that it is made entirely of Legos. That represents the scale of a bacterium such that the Legos are atoms. Each atom is part of a very complex protein or DNA or RNA or some other structure and each one has a specific job. What a massively complex thing it is.
On a different note I found Dave Berlinski's discussion about whales to be fascinating because they are supposed to have evolved from a land based mammal. Dave considers it from an engineering perspective and all of the changes you'd have to make to a cow to have a whale. Dave said he quit counting at 50,000 changes and the evolutionary time frame is very short from cow to whale. Only a few million years.
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