The protein discussed consists of string of 150 specific amino acids. There are 20 different types of amino acids and they each have to be the right one for the protein to be a protein. So imagine entering a lottery where they have to call out 150 numbers from 1-20 and each one has to be the right number or you loose.
So imagine entering a lottery where they have to call out 150 numbers from 1-20 and each one has to be the right number or you loose.
In chemistry, a trillion is a small number. A trillion to one chance is a trivial fraction.
I hope that is understandable.
There are 1.67 Sextillion molecules in a drop of water. About 5 Sextillion atoms in the same drop.
OK, so let's consider the other side of that equation.
The numbers of bacteria on earth today is estimated as five nonillion -- that's 5 X 10 to the 30th power.
Bacteria can multiply, let's say about once per hour or 10,000 times per year on average.
So, in a million years that's 10 billion multiplications.
In a billion years that's 10 trillion multiplications = 10 to the 12th power.
Multiply 10 trillion times 50 nonillion and we're up to 50 tredecillion or 5 times 10 to the 42nd power.
That's how many opportunities for useful mutations happen amongst bacteria over a billion years.
Of course, for abiogenesis life didn't begin as bacteria but with amino acids bumping into each other to form interesting combinations under many different conditions.
Combinations which lasted might react with others to form even more interesting and complex molecules -- decillions of times per year for hundreds of millions of years.
So Murphy's Law would seem to dictate that if a reaction is possible, it will eventually happen, regardless of the probabilities.
No, not a sudden appearance of highly complex life, but a slow accumulation of complexity among interesting organic molecules.
That's the proposal, anyway.