Posted on 01/21/2019 2:34:05 PM PST by KC_Lion
What will 2019 bring?
The U.K. is leaving the E.U. while it builds an Army.
While the Democrats may have retaken the House, President Trump prefers to find ways to undermine THEM.
Socialists have now successfully completely taken over the Progressive moment and have hit the gas.
Will America be "Out of Many One"?
Or "The earth belongs only to men"?
The initial Turkish assault came in the sparely populated region between Tal Abyad and Ras al-Ain. To secure the flanks, Turkish forces assaulted Tal Abyad, Suluk and Ras al-Adin. Supporting attack by Turkish and Turkish backed rebels was to take place against Manbij and Kobane in the western part of the zone.
Enter the Syrian and Russian Armies, suddenly the enemy of my enemy is my friend. Syria rushing forces to Manbij in the west and Hassakeh/Tal Tamer in the east. This forced Russia to sprint ahead and get between Turkish and Syrian forces in the vicinity of Manbij. This along with Kurdish counter attack to retake Ras al-Ain have put Turkey in a squeeze. Stiff resistance and quick response by Syria/Russia may make Turkey back off its buffer / security zone to avoid serious escalation of fighting. Is Turkey ready to cross swords with Russian troops to get at its desired territorial gains?
With some condemning Trump pulling out our relatively small forces from this area, Turkey's unilateral decision to attack across the border would have brought US forces under attack. In this current scenario/situation Russia/Syria face the brunt with Kurds apparently teaming up with them. I don't expect thing to go well for Turkey under such conditions.
There is a great deal of conflicting discussion on what exactly is happening in NE Syria. Heavy fighting is reported across the sector. One area of attack is towards the Kurdish border city of Kobane in the western sector.Turkey had 'promised' not to invade Kobane. Another maneuver appears to be designed to create a Kurdish isolated pocket around Tal Abyad and Suluk.
US officials have said though that Turkey has penetrated more than the stated 30KM in places and farther to the west. This accounts for the reports that Turkish forces have engaged Syrian units near the town of Raqqa - nearly 60 km from the Turkish border.
I suspect much has to do with the sudden imposition of Syrian/Russian forces and the stiff resistance put up by the Kurds.
Turkey tried playing a game of chicken with a US position and nearly found itself on the receiving end of serious firepower. The VP and SECSTATE are enroute to meet in Turkey but Erdogan has stated he will only meet with Trump. US has started placing embargos on key materials and other EU countries the same. Probably the biggest event to look for would be the removal of the 50 or so nukes from Incirlik AFB . Not sure Turkey's response, as they may attempt to keep them as a 'hostage'. That could provoke kinetic retaliation by NATO. 3 -C17 jets currently enroute have raised speculation on the removal.
N Korea
Kim rides a white horse on Mt Paedku - a reportedly 'sacred' site. Some are linking the photo-op to a pending policy decision by Kim. Part of the accompanying press release states "Having witnessed the great moments of his thinking atop Mount Paedku, all the officials accompanying him were convinced with overwhelming emotions and joy that there will be a great operation to strike the world with wonder again and make a step forward in the Korean revolution" The statement is a little vague, but some analysts suspect this may be nuclear related. Since the Vietnam fiasco, Kim appears to have been reigned in by the hard liners in his military govt. Talks with the US have not been going well.
There was an earlier threat against Guam again a couple weeks ago. Another option would be another underground nuke test. Strongly suspect that it will be a deliberate stepping over the lines of the agreement with Trump. With current world turmoil he may see Trump as weakened and thinks he can get away with something like a serious ICBM or nuke test. Keep monitoring.
Hong Kong
Independence protestors have tweaked the ire of China, which threatened to crush protests and any attempt at independence. China has to walk carefully. HK is an economic powerhouse for the rest of the nation and a heavy handed assault would boomerang back into their faces. China's recent bullying of the NBA and other US companies to back down on the free HK movement indicates their concerns.
Saudi Arabia / Iran
More US forces deploying to SA and Kuwait area, most associated with missile defense. Things getting drown out by the Turkish invasion of Syria, but it seems that SA is getting its defenses beefed up for a future conflict. Iran has also moved Anti aircraft missile systems to portions of the gulf facing SA. I don't expect Iran to move much in this area. It currently has its hands full responding to the Turkish incursion and what that does to its plans and allies.
I said then and I still say that we should have flattened Iraq, divided it along ethnic lines, set them at each other’s throats, and given Turkey a brand new freshly minted Kurdistan right on it’s border as a special thank you for their perfidy in denying us passage to Iraq at the last minute.
New POTUS tweet:
“About 500,000 human beings were killed in Syria while Barack Obama was president & leading for a “political settlement” to that civil war. Media has been more outraged in the last 72 hours over our Syria policy than they were at any point during 7 years of slaughter.”
May 18, 2015
|
Judicial Watch
Judicial Watch: Defense, State Department Documents Reveal Obama Administration Knew that al Qaeda Terrorists Had Planned Benghazi Attack 10 Days in Advance
Administration knew three months before the November 2012 presidential election of ISIS plans to establish a caliphate in Iraq
Administration knew of arms being shipped from Benghazi to Syria
(Washington, DC) – Judicial Watch announced today that it obtained more than 100 pages of previously classified “Secret” documents from the Department of Defense (DOD)and the Department of State revealing that DOD almost immediately reported that the attack on the U.S. Consulate in Benghazi was committed by the al Qaeda and Muslim Brotherhood-linked “Brigades of the Captive Omar Abdul Rahman” (BCOAR),
and had been planned at least 10 days in advance. Rahman is known as the Blind Sheikh, and is serving life in prison for his involvement in the 1993 World Trade Center bombing and other terrorist acts.
The new documents also provide the first official confirmation that shows the U.S. government was aware of arms shipments from Benghazi to Syria. - The documents also include an August 2012 analysis warning of the rise of ISIS and the predicted failure of the Obama policy of regime change in Syria.
The documents were released in response to a court order in accordance with a May 15, 2014, Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) lawsuit filed against both the DOD and State Department seeking communications between the two agencies and congressional leaders “on matters related to the activities of any agency or department of the U.S. government at the Special Mission Compound and/or classified annex in Benghazi” (Judicial Watch v U.S. Department of Defense and U.S. Department of State(No. 1:14-cv-00812)).
There is a lot of ‘noise’ out there that drown out many indicators of potential threats. Been sifting through the smoke and these are the key trends I’m seeing.
Israel/Iran
Israel within the past few days has warned that Iran is placing cruse missiles in Yemen in order to conduct a surprise attack on Israel. Accordingly, Israel has heightened its alert status and shifted assets in response. At first glance, placement of cruse missiles so far south in the Red Sea in order to attack Israel doesn’t seem practical - except for their use in attacking SA’s oil refinery a while back. In that attack, the Iranians successfully plotted where the gaps were in radar coverage and brought those missiles around the back door, to hit were SA wasn’t looking. Israel’s intelligence is pretty keen and probably has assessed the Iranian potential to try a similar trick.
One scenario has the cruse missiles flying at low altitude over the red sea off the commercial shipping lanes, hook right off Sharm el Shiekh and into southern Israel.
Iran has had its rear handed to it by Israel for several years now. Iran has spent an incredible amount of money trying to establish a land bridge across Syria (taking advantage of the chaos there)to arm Hezbollah and set up its own facilities where it can strike Israel. Israel lets them expend a lot of time and money, the BOOM, they blow it to pieces. Iran’s Syria actions, along with US sanctions, have created a lot of resentment by the Iranian population in general because of poor economic conditions. Iran needs to pull something spectacular off to regain face. The biggest question is does Iran have the nerve to pull the trigger, since Israelis response will be brutal. Iran also has to deal with the change in the NE Syria with the Turks moving south. Turkey is a perennial enemy of Iran and the dynamics with the Russians complicate matters further - will Russia ‘protect’ Iranian assets in Syria from Israeli retribution?
Global riots/unrest
The past week riots have broken out all over the world. Lebanon, Chile, HK, and others. Is there a common source behind all this coordinating the actions? Doesn’t seem to be but interesting coincidence.
Syria
Russian military police convoy got hit by Turkish mortar fire today. Oh boy this can develop into a serious mess.
ISIS
The termination of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi and his #2 has caused some on the left to bleat how we are going to face some sort of retaliation because we weren’t culturally sensitive as 0bama was with Ben Laden. monitoring but don’t expect anything soon because the main effort of ISIS IMHO at this time is adjusting to the changing dynamic in Syria.
Iran/Saudi Arabia
The US deployed B2 bombers to SA yesterday. It is significant to note that these are offensive weapons, not defensive as previous military buildup in the region following the SA refinery attack have been announced. These are big stick items.
Lebanon
PM Saad Hariri has resigned following two weeks of protests in the country. These protests were opposed by Hezbollah elements who’ve gone as far as lethally attacking protestors. Hezbollah leader Nasrallah publically has come out against the resignation. Hezbollah has increasingly become one of the dominant players in Lebanese politics, allowing them to assume a more aggressive, offensive posture against Israel with no govt reprimand. It doesn’t look like there will be an outbreak of civil war at this time but expect Hezbollah to try to gain greater influence and control of Lebanon.
Why Haven’t We Heard A Peep From Islamic Powers About China Brutalizing 1 Million Muslims?
The Federalist ^ | 10/30/2019 | Sumantra Maitra
Anyone observing academia from within would know that most of the research coming out of a majority of social science departments is meaningless and irrelevant.
It’s a self-referential racket that squanders money on bureaucratic nonsense and on research subjects completely dissociated with normal life and policy. Had it not been so, right now there would be scores of scholarships and funding to find out the causality behind a single puzzling phenomenon:
What explains otherwise virulent, hyper-activist, and volatile Islamic countries and jihadist groups being completely subservient to China?
It is, of course, unthinkable that India, the United Kingdom, the United States,...
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3790155/posts
Thanks for the updates. I’m still here but battling some health issues.
Brilliant expose Lucy does not get any better.!!
while the circus goes on in the house -
Iraq -
The protests in Iraq, initially focusing on govt corruption, are gaining a more anti-Iranian focus. Iran stepped in and set up anti-ISIS militias and has so far kept them from being controlled by the Iraqi govt.
In the midst of this, anti-American cleric Sadr stirring up shia-sunni strife saying that he will protect protestors against the Iranian militias.
Hezbollah
A non-MANPADS rocket appears to have been launched against an Israeli drone over southern Lebanon last night. this is significant in that this is the first instance of a more advanced AA rocket system. Good news is the rocket failed and blew up on the ground. I’m sure Israeli intelligence is feasting on the new data.
N Korea
Kim fired a couple short ranged rockets. Staying back from the red line Trump has drawn. Eyes still watching on what may come from his ‘white horse’ ride. NK reports that they are getting tired of Washington not capitulating to their demands.
China
Swine flu epidemic raging and locals now turning to dogs meat due to shortages.
Hong Kong
Protests continue. HK govt has started implementing internet bans on anything being posted to inform/support the protests.
Israel/Gaza
Itchy trigger fingers by Hamas late yesterday sent as many as 10 rockets towards the southern Israel town of Sderot. Israel responded overnight with some of the largest air strikes in a while. Hamas threatens to escalate. This will reignite the Israelis population mood to launch a ground campaign into Gaza. Monitor for continued escalation of conflict.
PING
November 5, 2019 11:30 AM
ISIS Tells Followers to Set Forest Fires in U.S., Europe
https://freebeacon.com/national-security/isis-tells-followers-to-set-forest-fires-in-u-s-europe/
PING
Praying Medic Retweeted
Lisa Mei Crowley
@LisaMei62
“The nine women and children slaughtered in Mexico on Monday were part of a Mormon community with ties to the alleged sex-cult Nxivm.”
Iran -
True their threat Iran is to resume uranium enrichment at the underground Fordow plant; will start pumping gas at more than 1,000 centrifuges. This will bring enrichment to 5%. Essentially a terror threat to Europe.
Elsewhere, attempted Iranian influence in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon it receiving substantial blow back. In Iraq, much of the ant-corruption protests are now targeting Iranian backed militia. These militias are shooting real bullets back. Syria, the tactical withdrawal of US troops have placed Iran in a bind preventing for the moment their desired land bridge to get war materials to Hezbollah. Iran continues to bleed billions of dollars in their war efforts, while domestically, their economy is on the rocks. Oil exports have reportedly dropped from nearly a million gallons down to close to 300,000 over the past year.
Mexico -
Narco-terrorism has risen to prominence following the massacre of American women and children. Mexico has so far rejected offers of American help. Overnight a suspect in the massacre was arrested. If US starts seriously striking back, I view threat from the drug cartels greater than Islamic terror. they are deeply embedded in the US. However, striking targets in Mexico at this stage would be big payoff. cartels don’t fear the Mexican govt, only other cartels. So they haven’t dispersed their operational facilities like terrorists in the middle east. There would be an abundance of HUMINT and IMINT available and airstrikes combined with rapid arrests would set them on their heels. All the more important to secure the border.
Israel/Gaza
Hamas has held off popping more rocket as the latest round is currently spinning down. I think the Israeli counter strikes were very effective at getting the message across.
N Korea -
Kim’s govt blusters that the US must return to the negotiation table by the end of the November. So far he’s stayed within the red line on rocket launches but there is a possibility if the US doesn’t concede he may cross that line. My thought are that he’s being driven by hardliners in the military following the earlier meetings with Trump and the US.
FYI, last year Border Patrol arrested Russian illegals in N. Idaho.
Article:
On the Northern Border: Terrorism, drugs, human trafficking
November 5th 2019
MISSOULA, Mont. — A year’s worth of debate over the Southern Border wall and a flood of immigrants made it simple to forget Montana shares 545 miles with Canada.
On the Northern Border, the terrain and weather combine to create a natural border wall of sorts. It’s wide open and wild. The men and women who patrol it worry about terrorism, drugs and human trafficking.
[snip]
Toole County Commissioner Don Hartwell praises Border Patrol and local law enforcement for keeping close tabs on the border. “They stop a lot of drug traffic coming through that border,” Hartwell says.
One of those arrests happened this fall at Coutts, the Canada side of the Sweetgrass Port of Entry. A record-setting meth bust with an estimated $3 million dollar street value.
No one would compare what happens here to the Southern Border, although Northern Border apprehensions are up 60 percent this year.
https://nbcmontana.com/news/local/on-the-border-terrorism-drugs-human-trafficking
More Stupidity From Trudeau
Toronto Sun ^ | June 12, 2019 | B. SALZBERG
Posted on 11/6/2019, 8:08:51 AM by ping jockey
Trudeau Grants Citizenship To Islamic Terrorist CONVICTED Of Mass Murder June 12, 2019Newsahmed hussen, citizenship, immigration, immigration fraud, islam, liberal-globalism, terrorismBrad
Zakaria Amara is a convicted terrorist, serving a life sentence for his role in a plot to murder dozens of Canadians. And now, thanks to a Trudeau government bill passed through the Senate, Amara will be given the privilege of Canadian citizenship.
He came to Canada as a teenager, became a Canadian citizen as a young man, and, by the time he turned 20, he was behind bars and charged with terrorism. An IDEAL Canadian citizen, no?
Amara was the ringleader of a sophisticated terrorist cell known as the Toronto 18. He recruited, trained and groomed fellow Islamist extremists and worked towards a deadly terrorist plot.
Amara wanted to detonate bombs in downtown Toronto, and coordinate shooting sprees at the CBC and the Toronto Stock Exchange. He planned a siege on Parliament Hill in Ottawa, and carry out executions and beheadings of politicians, including the Prime Minister. How sweet he is.
Under the previous Harper government, Amara had his Canadian citizenship revoked and was set to be deported the moment he was released from prison. Then under Justin Trudeau, the deportation was cancelled.
Trudeau said during the 2015 election campaign that he believes “terrorists should get to keep their Canadian citizenship.” He has kept to his word regarding the pledge.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3791970/posts
Iran -
Claims to be able to enrich uranium to 60% according to Reuters. They also claim to have discovered a large oilfield. However sanctions currently prevent exports and the discovery has done little to improve the domestic situation.
N Korea
Poor harvests are increasing the existing food shortages nationwide. Also underreported is that the swine flu epidemic that has crashed China’s pork production has also hit NK. Current sanctions limit outside support. This may be an additional driver pushing Kim to try to get US to negotiate.
Israel
Conducting drills in southern Israel to test evacuating an entire city in the event of an all out rocket attack.
Syria
Significant air strike by the US seems to have targeted the newest leader of ISIS. No confirmation yet.
Bolivia
Riots there have gained the support of some police. Riots expanding around the world over a number of issues
While the US waits for the kangaroo court the world burns
Israel/Gaza
Israel killed Abu al-Atta a senior commander of the Gaza based Islamic Jihad Islamic terror group in an airstrike. and attempted to kill of Akram Ajouri in Damascus. This provoked a 12+ hour rocket attack by Hamas, et al across southern Israel and reaching even to Tel Aviv (attacks continuing even as I type). IAF launched counter strikes as the barrage wore on.
Reports now indicated armor units being moved to the Gaza border region.
Netanyahu may be tempted to finally launch a ground offensive to neuter hamas. Israelis in southern Israel have been unsatisfied the govt’s response to repeated attacks. Decisive action may give Netanyahu a boost as another round of elections looms. Expect more IAF airstrikes thorough out the day (night there) and potential escalation of the rocket attacks.
Turkey/Syria
It has been a month and Turkey still hasn’t secured the 30 KM buffer zone. SDF and Syrian forces, along with the presence of Russian units, have blocked the Turkish advance. the situation is turning into a quagmire for the Turks.
Hong Kong
nearly 6 months of protests and things are getting hotter. Protestors are becoming more violent as the HK police ratchet up their response. Many protestors have been shot by police in recent days and are demanding investigations into the shootings. Hong Kong leader Carrie Lam is saying that the protests are pushing things to a “total collapse.”
Anticipate escalation of both sides. China is still holding back direct intervention. HK is the main cog in its economic engine and any military crackdown would certainly knock what legs its weakening economy has out from under it.
Bolivia
Following days of protests and the STRONG urging by military leaders to resign, Evo Morales said Monday he was headed for Mexico after being granted asylum there. Supporters and opponents still fought in the streets. Police are urging residents to stay home. Watch for more protests and rioting until the military has to step in to restore order.
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